The five ATP 250 level hard court stops in the run-up to the Australian Open saw five different players claim titles and find form during the first portion of the 2019 season. Here is your look at all of January’s ATP action.
Roberto Bautista Agut claimed a 9th career ATP title defeating Tomas Berdych 6-4 3-6 6-3 in the final, after stunning world #1 Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-6(6) 6-4 in the semifinals, one of the best wins of his career. The Spaniard also claimed wins against Matteo Berrettini, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Stan Wawrinka.
It was a great comeback tournament for Berdych who beat Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fernando Verdasco, Pierre Hugues Herbert and Marco Cecchinato. David Goffin and Herbert won the doubles title over Haase/Middelkoop.
Kevin Anderson is a dark horse for the Australian Open title and he was the player to beat in India, capturing the Chennai title 7-6 6-7 7-6 over fellow big serving veteran Ivo Karlovic. Gilles Simon, Jaume Munar, and Laslo Djere also fell to Anderson as he didn’t drop a set until the final. Karlovic, the oldest top level player on tour, defeated Felix Auger Aliassime, Evgeny Donskoy, Ernests Gulbis, and Steve Darcis, a veteran on the comeback trail.
Home heroes Bopanna and Sharan defeated Bambridge/O’Mara in the doubles final.
Kei Nishikori came through as the favorite in Brisbane, defeating rising Russian Daniil Medvedev 6-4 3-6 6-2 in the final. Nishikori didn’t drop a set prior to the final, racking up wins against Denis Kudla, Grigor Dimitrov, and Jeremy Chardy. Medvedev’s path to the final was defeating Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, three capable and crafty veterans.
Marcus Daniell and Wesley Koolhof beat Ram/Salisbury in the doubles final.
Sydney native Alex De Minaur triumphed at home for his maiden ATP title. The Demon edged tour veteran Andreas Seppi 7-5 7-6 for his 5th straight match win. ADM defeated Dusan Lajovic, Reilly Opelka, Jordan Thompson, and Gilles Simon to reach the final, he didn’t drop a set all week.
The veteran Seppi was happy to find form in what was a challenging tournament for him. Jeremy Chardy, Martin Klizan, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Diego Schwartzman were his victims on the week in some nip and tuck matches.
Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares defeated the Colombians Cabal/Farah in the doubles final.
Tennys Sandgren has a lot of points to defend in Melbourne, but he enters the AO in great form after claiming his first career ATP title. Sandgren won Auckland without dropping a set this week. Sandgren blitzed past Cam Norrie who grew up in Auckland. Max Marterer, Marco Cecchinato, Leonardo Mayer, and Philipp Kohlschreiber were all defeated by Sandgren.
Norrie defeated Benoit Paire, Joao Sousa, Taylor Fritz and J.L. Struff to reach the final. Ben McLachlan/ Jan-Lennard Struff defeated Klaasen/Venus in the doubles final.
Veterans Djokovic, Berdych, and Wawrinka Contesting 2019 ATP Doha Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2019 ATP 250 in Doha, Qatar has Novak Djokovic as the star attraction (including a pairing with brother Marko for doubles), but resurgent veterans Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych are still gunning for the title and have advanced to the quarterfinals. What will the rest of the tournament hold?
Both of the seeds advanced to the quarterfinals, with world #1 Djokovic heavily favored against Georgian #1 Basilashvili. Both players have dropped sets this week, with Djokovic’s lost set to Marton Fucsovics a massive surprise. Presuming he’s motivated Djokovic should be too good in this matchup though, after beating Damir Dzumhur and Fucsovics. Basilashvili defeated Albert Ramos and Andrey Rublev.
Tennis fans would love to see a revitalized Wawrinka making waves on tour. The Swiss veteran has a great shot against steady baseliner Bautista Agut after he upset Karen Khachanov in straights and followed that upset with a win against Nicolas Jarry. RBA has been solid, dropping just 5 games in each match (wins against Matteo Berrettini and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez). Wawrinka should be highly motivated though and I have a feeling he’ll rise to the occasion and notch an upset.
Dusan Lajovic vs Marco Cecchinato
Wins against Adrian Mannarino and Ricardas Berankis have lifted Lajovic to the quarters while Marco Cecchinato eased past Sergiy Stakhovsky and then got a walkover into the quarters. Cecchinato is still learning the ropes on hard courts, and though he’s very talented, Lajovic should have a slight edge.
Both of these players have been disappointing lately, Berdych has been injured and considered retirement, but now he’s come back and earned wins against crafty veterans Philipp Kohlschreiber and Fernando Verdasco. PHH hopes to improve as a singles player this year and a stunning win against a listless Dominic Thiem, followed up by a three set tiebreak win against Max Marterer, will give him a lot of confidence heading into this matchup. Berdych is hard to read right now but he should be favored if he’s fit.
Projected Semifinals
Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Berdych d. Lajovic
This is Djokovic’s title to lose, but if he loses interest Wawrinka or RBA will benefit. I expect Berdych to make a run to the final at this point and fall just short, in what would be a huge result for him.
Stan Wawrinka Continues Comeback Tour at ATP Marseille 2018 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 250 indoor hard court stop in Marseille continues the ATP World Tour’s early year tournaments in Europe. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
Roberto Bautista Agut and Karen Khachanov are heavy favorites to reach the quarters from the first section. RBA faces Malek Jaziri/Julien Benneteau, while Khachanov drew a qualifier and Mischa Zverev/Blaz Kavcic. RBA at his best should ease into the semis.
Tomas Berdych was unwell in Rotterdam but he could have a great week in Marseille. He’ll open with Hugo Gaston or a qualifier. Damir Dzumhur should beat Mikhail Kukushkin and Felix Auger-Aliassime/Thomas Fabbiano to reach the quarters opposite Berdych. Berdych is my pick for the semis. Rising young star Auger-Aliassime could rise up though.
Stan Wawrinka has struggled with is movement upon returning to the ATP Tour. He should beat Laslo Djere/qualifier to reach the quarters, but at that stage, I’ll back Daniil Medvedev to defeat him. The rising young Russian opens as the favorite against seed Gilles Muller, Stefanos Tsitsipas/Nicolas Mahut awaits in round 2. The winner of Medvedev/Tsitsipas has a great chance to reach the semis, and I’ll go with Medvedev to get the result.
Max Marterer has started 2018 in great form. On the back of a challenger title I’ll go with the German to upset home hero Gilles Simon in the opening round. Filip Krajinovic/Joao Sousa await. I’ll go with Marterer to reach the quarters opposite Lucas Pouille, the champion of Montpellier. Pouille over Marterer is my pick at that stage.
Roger Federer, Grigor Dimitrov, and David Goffin Headline 2018 ATP Rotterdam 500 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 edition of the ATP 500 indoor hard court stop in Rotterdam begins tomorrow and Roger Federer’s quest for the world #1 ranking is the biggest story of the tournament. Should Federer win the title, as he’s predicted to do, he’ll get a trophy and his #1 ranking back, defying all the doubters from years past. Grigor Dimitrov, and David Goffin are some of the players that could derail Federer this time. A big week of tennis awaits, here is your full preview with predictions.
Top Half:
Qualifier Ruben Bemelmans has the bad luck of drawing Federer first up, Karen Khachanov has a pair of quarterfinals to start the season, and should be Federer’s round 2 opposition. Khachanov will face Philipp Kohlschreiber in the opening round. Despite falling in the semifinals of Sofia, Stan Wawrinka should be two Dutch players early, Talloon Griekspoor and Robin Haase/Thiemo De Bakker to reach the quarters. Federer will be a heavy favorite in that quarterfinal between Swiss stars.
Success in Davis Cup should propel Alexander Zverev into the quarterfinals. Zverev faces veteran David Ferrer, then Joao Sousa/Andreas Seppi in the second round. Montpellier finalist Richard Gasquet will take on his countryman, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, with Daniil Medvedev/Gilles Muller to follow. I’ll give the young gun Medvedev the edge in round 1, but Gasquet falling to Zverev is my quarterfinal pick.
Grigor Dimitrov should be the favorite against Yuichi Sugita, and Filip Krajinovic/Felix Auger Aliassime in the early rounds. I’ll back Andrey Rublev to upset Montpellier champion Lucas Pouille, and then Damir Dzumhur/Marius Copil to reach the quarters opposite Dimitrov. Pouille and Copil should be tired, and both Dzumhur and Rublev are coming off solid quarterfinal runs in Montpellier. Dimitrov is my pick to reach the semis.
Tomas Berdych and David Goffin look to be on a collision course in the third section of the draw. Berdych opens with a struggling Mischa Zverev, Sofia quarterfinalist Viktor Troicki or Davis Cup hero J.L. Struff will follow, with Berdych favored against either. Goffin reached the semis in Montpellier and takes on Benoit Paire. Paire has played well to start 2018 but Goffin should be better, I’ll go with qualifier Martin Klizan to upset Feliciano Lopez before falling to Goffin in round 2. I’ll back Berdych over Goffin in a competitive quarterfinal.
This event seems tailored made for both Federer and Dimitrov to do well and face off in the final. Federer has #1 waiting for him at the end of the week and I doubt he’ll surrender this chance to take it.
2018 ATP Doha Preview and Predictions: Next Gen Stars Thiem, Coric, Rublev Lead Weakened Doha Field Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP 250 in Doha on hard courts to start the season is normally the ritziest 250 on tour but with most notably Novak Djokovic’s absence it plays host to one of the weaker fields it’s had in recent memory. ATP Next Gen stars Dominic Thiem, Borna Coric, and Andrey Rublev are presented with a great chance to make a run. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
Having cemented himself in the top 5, Thiem leads the Doha field and will open with Evgeny Donskoy. Thiem needs to focus on keep himself fresher in 2018, and he’s also going to be playing with a target on his back all season. That said, he has the game to put away Donskoy and either Malek Jaziri or Aljaz Bedene, Jaziri tends to step up his play in the Middle East, Bedene, who is back representing Slovenia, had a great 2017 though and should be opposite Thiem, falling in round 2.
French veteran Richard Gasquet opens with one of the oldest players on tour, Victor Estrella, he’ll then get another young gun in this draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece, or veteran Florian Mayer in round 2. The Greek won 4 matches on the main tour last year and will be looking for a big scalp to start the season, that said Gasquet is good enough when fit I have him defeating everyone into the semifinals, including Thiem in the battle of backhands.
Another veteran hoping for a good 2018 is Tomas Berdych, the Czech won 35 matches but hoisted no titles in 2017 was forgotten for much of the season. He’s better than J.L. Struff, and either Paolo Lorenzi or wild card Gael Monfils though. Monfils had yet another season derailed by injury last year, shutting down after the US Open, he hopes to be fit to start 2018.
Serbia’s Viktor Troicki faces ATP debutante Matteo Berrettini, while his countryman Filip Krajinovic takes on Peter Gojowczyk. Krajinovic had an incredible 2017 winning 71 matches in total (only 5 on the main tour) and reaching the ATP Paris Masters final. After tearing up the challenger tour look for Krajinovic to rise defeating Troicki and Berdych to reach the semifinals.
Pablo Carreno Busta had a career year in 2017 but it still doesn’t seem like he’s appreciated enough. PCB has transformed into an all court performer, but despite his top 10 ranking he’s an underdog against Coric in his opening match. Coric is a talent but posted a below .500 tour record in 2017, PCB should defeat Coric and either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Thomas Fabbiano to reach the quarterfinals.
Russia’s young gun Rublev is my choice to reach the semifinals, Rublev just beat PCB in Abu Dhabi and his path is Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, then a veteran, either Fernando Verdasco or Dudi Sela, before facing PCB or Coric in the quarters (most likely).
The section with Albert Ramos as the highest seed is the weakest part of this draw, Ramos faces Guido Pella in a toss-up contest, Spanish veterans Feliciano Lopez and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will square off, qualifier’s Mirza Basic and Stefano Travaglia are favored against Andreas Haider Maurer and local wild card Jabor Al-Mutawa respectively. Lopez did not have a great year last year but he still should be favored to survive and reach the quarters where he should defeat Ramos.
I’ll take Gasquet’s guile and shotmaking to take home the Doha title over the young gun Rublev, this is a pretty open field so anything could happen, but look for this contingent to get off to a good 2018.
2017 ATP Los Cabos Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP is back again in Mexico, for the 250 in Los Cabos. Here is your full preview with predictions.
Abierto Mexicano De Tenis Mifel Presentado Por Cinemex
ATP World Tour 250
July 31-August 5, 2017
Los Cabos, Mexico
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $637,395
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (14)
2: Sam Querrey (24)
3: Albert Ramos-Vinolas (23)
4: Feliciano Lopez (28)
For a 250, Los Cabos has attracted a solid field.
Top Half:
Coming off the Wimbledon semifinals, Tomas Berdych should dispatch Akira Santillan or Konstantin Kravchuk, and then do the same against Adrian Mannarino in the quarters. Mannarino opens with Jason Jung, Tatsuma Ito or Bjorn Fratangelo will follow.
Albert Ramos is the #3 seed, but he’s not good on hard courts usually. I have Mikhail Kukushkin building on the momentum he built at the challenger level and defeating both Taylor Fritz and Ramos to reach the quarterfinals. Canadian Peter Polansky is 12-3 since Wimbledon, he should beat Yasutaka Uchiyama for the second week in a row, then upset Thanasi Kokkinakis, who hasn’t yet reached his best level since returning to the tour from injury. Kokkinakis will be favored over a struggling Frances Tiafoe. Kukushkin is my pick to reach the semifinals from this weak section.
Bottom Half:
Sam Querrey should build off his great showing at Wimbledon to defeat Evan King or local wild card Manuel Sanchez. Blaz Kavcic just won a challenger title and should have the inside track against Vincent Millot, Fernando Verdasco should be solid enough on hard courts to defeat Ernesto Escobedo, who is in poor form, and then Kavcic, before falling to Querrey.
Feliciano Lopez has struggled this season, but he should beat Dennis Novikov or recent Newport finalist Matt Ebden. I have Ivo Karlovic defeating Quentin Halys, and then Damir Dzumhur or Taro Daniel. Karlovic should serve his way into the semifinals over Lopez in what would be an entertaining quarterfinal.
Dark Horse: Mikhail Kukushkin
In a weak section, Kukushkin should make a run into the quarterfinals, where he will at least have a punchers chance against Berdych.
Predictions
Semis Berdych d. Kukushkin
Querrey d. Karlovic
The top 2 seeds should face off in the final, I’ll back Querrey’s form to win another ATP title in Mexico, but it could go either way.
Roger Federer Concludes Another Magical Run With Wimbledon Title #8 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Roger Federer hasn’t dropped a set since he began his run to the title in Halle, and he just finished up the grass court season with Wimbledon title #8, and Grand Slam title #19 (his second of the season), thumping Marin Cilic in another magical performance 6-3 6-1 6-4 in less than two hours. Cilic, playing in a second slam final, was never really in the match, he was broken twice in the first set, twice in the second set, and once in the third set. By contrast, he only generated one break point chance the entire match, and that came early in the first set, as the Croatian seemed nervous facing the 35 year old legend, while Federer eased his way into the match and finished smooth as silk, with 23 winners. Federer won three quarters of his points on serve, while Cilic’s own serve was much weaker in the match, despite serving him well all tournament.
Federer moved to 31-2 on the season, as his tournament run saw straight set wins against Alexandr Dolgopolov, Dusan Lajovic, Mischa Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Tomas Berdych, who was playing well defeating Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem in previous rounds. Cilic beat Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, Steve Johnson, and Roberto Bautista Agut, Gilles Muller required five sets, and Sam Querrey required four for him to reach the final.
Muller had upset Rafael Nadal in the previous round, clearing a possible hurdle for Federer, while Querrey knocked out defending champion Andy Murray, who didn’t appear fit, and succumbed to Querrey’s powerful groundstrokes.
Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo won a classic doubles final, 13-11 in the fifth set over Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic, as the veterans celebrated with the joy of first time pros after their victory.
2017 ATP Stuttgart and Rosmalen Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2017 ATP grass court season starts this week with two European tour stops that are on the 250 level of the tour. Clay season is over, so get ready for fast paced action on the green grass of Stuttgart and Den Bosch.
Mercedes Cup
ATP World Tour 250
Stuttgart, Germany
June 12-18, 2017
Surface: Grass
Prize Money: €630,785
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (5)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (12)
3: Tomas Berdych (14)
4: Lucas Pouille (16)
Stuttgart has a great field this week, highlighted by one of the best grass court players of all time, Roger Federer, along with a core group of solid tour players for a 250.
First round matchups to watch:
Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs. (WC)Tommy Haas
A battle between solid grass court players, the 39 year old Haas has lost more than a step, but he’s a very crafty player at his age, and will give the big server Herbert plenty of trouble. Herbert has not been able to consistently compete at the tour level in singles, and Haas should get the win in his German homeland.
Florian Mayer vs. Jeremy Chardy
The unorthodox shotmaking of Mayer is a good fit for grass, and he’s the favorite in Germany against the higher ranked Chardy, who hits the ball hard and plays aggressively, but often racks up a high error count in the process. Mayer should find form and notch the win.
(7)Gilles Simon vs. Feliciano Lopez
Lopez has won both meetings these veterans have played on grass, Simon is in poor form, and Lopez, happy to be off of the slow, high bouncing clay, should be able to whip his serve in and advance forward enough to get the win and reach round 2.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Baghdatis has been in terrible form and hasn’t won a match since January, but he’s been good on grass against the German, who for his part has lost three straight matches and isn’t in the best form himself. Baghdatis badly needs this win, but in Germany, Kohlschreiber is a sensible favorite.
Top Half:
Roger Federer, the heavy favorite this tournament, will open his bid against the Haas/Herbert winner, look for Roger to tune up and get the win, before doing the same against serve and volleyer Mischa Zverev, who is happy to be off of clay, and should beat Malek Jaziri and either Yannick Hanfmann or Marton Fucsovics in round 2.
Tomas Berdych and Feliciano Lopez should contest the other quarterfinal in the top half, Lopez will face Mayer/Chardy in round 2, and should be the favorite in that match, if he defeats Simon. Berdych will get a dangerous contest against Bernard Tomic for his first match, presuming Tomic puts away the ageless Stephane Robert. Given Tomic’s awful form (four straight defeats), Berdych should make it to the quarters, where I have him knocking off Lopez to reach the semis. Berdych and Lopez have split the h2h 6-6.
Bottom Half:
Grigor Dimitrov will face Andrey Kuznetsov or Jerzy Janowicz in round 2, Janowicz is far removed from his success on grass, although he still has plenty of power. Kuznetsov has had a good season, but Dimitrov is a favorite in this section for a reason, having found a bit of form at Roland Garros. Viktor Troicki should beat Benoit Paire and Nikoloz Basilashvili/Peter Gojowczyk to reach the quarters. Dimitrov will be the favorite whether it’s Troicki or someone else in the quarters.
Lucas Pouille begins his tournament against either Jan-Lennard Struff or Lukas Lacko. Pouille isn’t perfect on grass by any measure but he should be good enough to reach the quarters before falling to Steve Johnson. The in-form American Johnson faces Max Marterer first up, then the Kohlschreiber/Baghdatis winner, a difficult but winnable path. Johnson’s game is built for fast surfaces.
Dark Horse: Feliciano Lopez
The unseeded Spaniard has every shot to at least make the quarters, and will have a punchers chance against Berdych. Federer is probably too much in the semis, but after a rough few months, Lopez could be back in winning form on grass.
Predictions
Semis Federer d. Berdych
Dimitrov d. Johnson
Final Federer d. Dimitrov
Nothing suggests Federer will not win in Stuttgart, he should be fresh and focused, while Dimitrov looks to be solid enough to make the final with his all-court game.
ATP Rosmalen
Ricoh Open
ATP World Tour 250
S-Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands
June 12-18, 2017
Surface: Grass
Prize Money: €589,185
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (7)
2: Alexander Zverev (10)
3: Ivo Karlovic (24)
4: Gilles Muller (28)
First round matchups to watch:
Yuichi Sugita vs. Janko Tipsarevic
Sugita has found form this year and just won a challenger on grass. Tipsarevic is a steady veteran who has a h2h win this matchup, but has yet to return to his tour level form. Fatigue may be an issue for Sugita, but it’s sensible that he’d be able to defeat Tipsarevic on grass.
(5)Steve Darcis vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Two shotmaking specialists, Dolgo has a only won one out of three meetings against the Belgian veteran, but he’s still the favorite in this match. The serve and volleyer Darcis is my pick though, he’s had a great season and that should continue on grass.
Dustin Brown vs. (WC)Stefan Kozlov
Brown is a dangerous serve and volleyer and should teach the young Kozlov a thing or two on grass. Kozlov has the game to compete on this surface but he still has plenty to learn, and Brown should have too crisp of a performance to suffer a defeat in this one.
Mikhail Youzhny vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
The veteran Youzhny has a great history on grass, but at 34 his game has declined from its peak by a large margin. Kokkinakis is just getting his feet wet on tour after injury, he’s immensely talented but Youzhny should find a way to scrape through for a much needed win to further enhance his grass court record.
Jordan Thompson vs. Adrian Mannarino
Another battle between players who enjoy grass court tennis, Thompson comes off of a challenger final on the surface, and although Mannarino should challenge him, look for Thompson’s fast developing game to show out and get the win.
Top Half:
Marin Cilic is in good form after reaching the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and should beat the Sugita/Tipsarevic winner, and then Darcis/Dolgopolov in the quarterfinals. Cilic didn’t drop a set in his Paris victories and looks setup to continue that trend on grass. The Darcis/Dolgopolov winner will face Vasek Pospisil or local wild card Tallon Griekspoor in round 2.
Ivo Karlovic‘s serve is a threat on grass, and he should defeat Brown/Kozlov, before facing Youzhny in the quarters. Youzhny faces Robin Haase or Daniil Medvedev in round 2 and has a winnable path to the quarters, although Haase is a competitive opponent. Karlovic should be solid enough to reach the semis on this surface.
Bottom Half:
11-6 in his career on grass, Alexander Zverev is a contender for this title, after breaking through on tour this season with a 27-10 record on the year. Zverev struggled at Roland Garros, but moving to grass may bring a refreshing change for him. Zverev should defeat Thompson/Mannarino to reach the quarters, Nicolas Mahut has won three Den Bosch titles and should defeat him there. Mahut opens with Dennis Novikov and then faces Rendy Lu/Evgeny Donskoy. Look for Mahut to show off his talents and reach at least the semifinals.
Gilles Muller also looks set for success, he’s had a great season and grass is perhaps his best surface. Muller should defeat Andreas Seppi/Tatsuma Ito, and then either Aljaz Bedene or Denis Istomin in the quarters. Rising young gun Hyeon Chung and improving American Ernesto Escobedo are also here in this section, and Chung could rise up and secure it. I have it Muller over Bedene, two players who have had good seasons, in the quarterfinals.
Dark Horse: Mikhail Youzhny
There are plenty of seeds with a shot at this title, but don’t count out Youzhny. The veteran still has enough game to find form for a week and take a title. In the very least, he should make the quarterfinals, with a good chance at beating Karlovic.
Predictions
Semis Cilic d. Karlovic
Muller d. Mahut
Final Cilic d. Muller
Cilic should be the clear favorite to take the title this week. I’ll back Muller’s form over all of his opponents to make the final, and he could take the title as well.
Tsonga and Wawrinka Claim Titles in Run Up to Roland Garros Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
ATP Lyon
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga moved to an excellent 21-5 on the season and claimed his third title this year defeating Tomas Berdych 7-6 7-5 in a nip and tuck singles final that bodes well for both players chances of making deep runs at Roland Garros. The French crowd was delighted by Tsonga’s wins over Carlos Berlocq, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili this week, as Tsonga found form and recovered from dropping sets in two of those matches. He also showed he’s healthy. Berdych eased past Hyeon Chung, Gilles Simon, and the dangeorus Milos Raonic, although he’s not among the favorites in Paris he enters the tournament coming off his best tournament this year, and his first final of the season.
Andres Molteni and Adil Shamasdin defeated Marcus Daniell and Marcelo Demoliner in the doubles final.
ATP Geneva
Stan Wawrinka won his first title of the season and defended his home triumph last year in Geneva as he came back from a set down to defeat surprise finalist Mischa Zverev 4-6 6-3 6-3. Wawrinka beat Rogerio Dutra Silva, Sam Querrey, and Andrey Kuznetsov as well this week, and although he dropped a couple of sets, the former French Open champion is clearly playing some solid tennis right now. Zverev stormed through qualifying, and on his worst surface (clay), he reached a second career ATP final upsetting John Isner, Steve Johnson, and Kei Nishikori this week and also edging past Robin Haase in round 1. Zverev only had two straight set wins this week, as he was living on the edge.
Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau beat Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah in the doubles final.
19 year old Russian/Kazakh Alexander Bublik has an entertaining style of play, and is making his grand slam debut after qualifying against French young gun Lucas Pouille. Despite Pouille being just 22, he has significantly more tour experience than Bublik, and that alone should give him an edge in this matchup that should feature entertaining shotmaking. Pouille retired in his last match though, so Bublik may have a shot if the Frenchman is unfit.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
A three time and defending quarterfinalist in Melbourne, Nishikori has two previous wins over Kuznetsov, and they both came in slams last season. Kuznetsov continues to improve though and coming off of the semifinals in Sydney, perhaps he can take his first set in a slam against Nishikori. Kei dropped the final in Brisbane as his pre-AO warm-up.
(14)Nick Kyrgios vs. Gastao Elias
Kyrgios has made the quarters in Melbourne before, but knee problems have prevented him from playing any warm-up matches. Expectations are down for this controversial home favorite, while Elias pushed Dominic Thiem to a third set in Sydney, and perhaps could trouble Kyrgios in this one if he’s unfit. More than likely Kyrgios will dictate play with his serve.
(27)Bernard Tomic vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Tomic is defending fourth round points after a miserable run in his Australian summer. He’s lost twice previously to the big hitter Bellucci, and is in danger of losing this match after unexpected losses in his warm-ups. Tomic is apparently struggling with his diet, and while Bellucci isn’t in great form, I see Bernie crashing out in round 1 to Bellucci, who has never made it past the second round in Melbourne.
Both players are big hitters, and their careers have taken drastically different turns. Cilic has cemented himself in the top 10 and is a former AO semifinalist and slam champion. Janowicz, once in the top 15, has fallen from the top 200 and didn’t post a tour level win last season. Janowicz has the talent to pressure Cilic with aggressive play. Despite his poor start to the season, Cilic should win though.
(6)Gael Monfils vs. Jiri Vesely
A defending AO quarterfinalist, Monfils has a loss to Vesely in their only slam meeting and didn’t opt to play warm-ups before his first round match. That said, Monfils remains an athletic and talented threat, while Vesely, a quarterfinalist in Auckland, has power, but probably lacks the movement to get past Monfils in this match.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Borna Coric
Dolgo is a one time AO quarterfinalist who continues to play well below his potential and is outside of the top 50 in the rankings. Coric won their last h2h meeting, but after knee problems, and then knee surgery, he’s been struggling to get himself back to his talent level. At age 20, Coric still has a long career ahead, but Dolgopolov will probably win this encounter.
Mikhail Youzhny vs. Marcos Baghdatis
These over 30 veterans have met seven times in their careers, with Youzhny holding a 4-3 edge in the h2h. Youzhny made the quarters in Chennai, while Baghdatis made the semis in Auckland, showing they are in good form heading into this matchup. Baghdatis is a fan favorite and former finalist here, while Youzhny once made the quarters. Baghdatis attacking style likely gives him a slight edge in this one.
The first meeting between this pair of 20 year old talents. Neither have much tour level experience, but Medvedev is coming off of his first ever tour final in Chennai, while Escobedo came through qualifying. Escobedo has enough power to win this, but Medvedev should be the better, and fresher player right now.
(21)David Ferrer vs. (WC)Omar Jasika
A two-time semifinalist in Melbourne, Ferrer has fallen on hard times at 34, and after a rough 2016, has had a miserable 1-2 start to 2017. The 19 year old Jasika, a wild card, is one of the most promising young players in tennis. He just reached a challenger final and very well could made a match of this against Ferrer. I still can’t count against Ferrer’s grinding though, despite his decline in shotmaking ability and fitness.
Muller comes off of his first ATP title in Sydney, while Fritz is still seeking his first Grand Slam win after taking part in all four Grand Slams last year. The 19 year old will likely struggle with Muller’s effective serve, but if the veteran is fatigued, Fritz could gain a confidence boosting win.
Jordan Thompson vs. Joao Sousa
Sousa dispatched Thompson in the 2015 AO when they last met, and he comes off a run to the final in Auckland. Fatigue should play a part in this match though, and with Thompson garnering home support, he’ll have a punchers chance in this one. Thompson reached the quarters in Brisbane, and after a 3-2 warm-up record, I don’t count him out in this match as the underdog.
(28)Feliciano Lopez vs. Fabio Fognini
Lopez has won both of their meetings, which happened to take place in Slams. These veterans play entertaining tennis, and this match is a bit of a toss-up. Neither are in great form, but Fognini is probably a bit worse off, and presuming Lopez is fit he should serve and volley his way to a third victory in this matchup.
(11)David Goffin vs. (Q)Reilly Opelka
The big serving Opelka, who plays like a younger version of John Isner, will make his slam debut against the talented David Goffin. Opelka towers over Goffin on the court, but Goffin has crisper groundstrokes, and will probably win this match. The Belgian is defending fourth round points, and I doubt he’s happy to get this first round matchup.
(2)Novak Djokovic vs. Fernando Verdasco
A one time semifinalist, Verdasco once again gets the misfortune of a brutal early round matchup in Melbourne. Djokovic leads the h2h 9-4 and just saved multiple match points to defeat Verdasco in a Doha three setter to start the season. I don’t see Djokovic losing this one, but Verdasco can still make for a difficult, and entertaining matchup.
Murray’s Quarter:
For the first time, the new world #1 (Sir) Andy Murray gets the #1 seed slot in a Grand Slam. Murray will start his campaign against journeyman Illya Marchenko, and in round 2 he’ll either get the steady ball striking of Yen-Hsun Lu, or the more aggressive approach of qualifier Andrey Rublev, a hot shot young gun. Rublev could be a bit more troublesome, but either way Murray should slide into the third round, and then the fourth, as none of Sam Querrey/Quentin Halys/Gerald Melzer/Alex De Minaur is a threat to him. The 17 year old De Minaur has three wins already in 2017 and has a great shot at his first slam win against Melzer. Querrey should snap a six match tour losing streak against Halys, who isn’t as sharp on hard courts. I don’t count De Minaur to find form and reach the third round, but the veteran Querrey, who won a pair of exo matches, should fall to Murray at that stage.
John Isner is in a bit of a career decline but he still has a favorable draw early on. Isner faces Konstantin Kravchuk, who at 31, has just one tour level win in the last 3+ seasons. Mischa Zverev and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez face off below Isner, a loser of eight straight matches, GGL looks to be in no form to challenge Zverev, who should serve and volley his way into round 2, before falling to Isner. Pouille/Bublik will face Malek Jaziri or qualifier Go Soeda in round 2. This isn’t a strong section, but Pouille vs. Isner isn’t a bad third round match. Isner should have a slight edge to reach the second week due to his serve.
Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer look set for a star studded third round clash on Rod Laver, presuming Berdych handles qualifier Lucas Vanni, and serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut or Ryan Harrison. Federer faces fellow veteran, Jurgen Melzer, a qualifier, then an American qualifier, either Bjorn Fratangelo or Noah Rubin. Federer isn’t the player he once was, especially after injury, but it can’t be discounted that the maestro has won his last five matches against the Czech. It’s not the biggest upset in the world, but I’ll go with Berdych’s form to reach round 4.
Nishikori/Kuznetsov look to be favorites to reach the second week as well, Jeremy Chardy or Nicolas Almagro await in round 2. Almagro leads the h2h 5-0, so I have him falling to Nishikori in round 2. Albert Ramos isn’t in great form, and could be troubled by qualifier Lukas Lacko, but I don’t trust Lacko at this point to make a run, and I have Ramos winning in round 1, before falling to the in-form veteran Dudi Sela in round 2. Sela opens with fellow veteran Marcel Granollers, and regardless, Nishikori should win in round 3. Sela is 8-1 to start the year with a challenger title.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Former champion Stan Wawrinka has a h2h win against his first round opponent Martin Klizan, and Klizan is in terrible form, having lost nine straight matches. Klizan is normally a tough matchup, but Wawrinka should beat him, and defeat Auckland semifinalist Steve Johnson in round 2, presuming Johnson eases past Federico Delbonis. Wawrinka faces Viktor Troicki, a Sydney semifinalist, most likely in round 3, as Troicki opens with journeyman Damir Dzhumur, with James Duckworth or Paolo Lorenzi to follow. At home I give Duckworth an edge in round 1, with Wawrinka beating Troicki in the third round for the eight time, in eight meetings (7-0 h2h).
Kyrgios or Elias will get a veteran, either Andreas Seppi or Paul-Henri Mathieu in round 2. PHM is in miserable form, so Seppi should win for the third straight time, with Kyrgios a favorite for the third round. Steve Darcis or Sam Groth are his likely third round opponent, Pablo Cuevas or Diego Schwartzman are also in this section. It’s hard to pick between Cuevas or Schwartzman, but I have Darcis serve and volleying past a struggling Groth, and then beating Schwartzman to reach round 3, before falling to Kyrgios. Darcis has been in good form as of late, and could be a dark horse if Kyrgios knee fails him.
Cilic or Janowicz will battle either Facundo Bagnis, or more likely Sydney finalist Dan Evans in round 2. Tomic or Bellucci likely await in round 3, unless Aljaz Bedene beats Victor Estrella, and then Tomic/Bellucci. This is a weak section, but I have Bedene over Bellucci, and then Cilic reaching the fourth round, despite his poor form.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has an easy early path, Thiago Monteiro, who is poor on hard courts, and neither Dusan Lajovic or Stephane Robert are likely to trouble him through the first two rounds. Both Lajovic and Robert are in poor form. The former Australian Open finalist looks set to face Jack Sock, the Auckland champion, in round 3. Sock opens with doubles specialist Pierre-Hugues Herbert in round 1, with Karen Khachanov or Adrian Mannarino to follow in round 2. Khachanov beat Mannarino at the end of last season, but either way, Sock should be the one to face Tsonga in round 3. Given the fatigue factor, I have Tsonga advancing into week 2.
Raonic’s Quarter:
The Canadian #1 Milos Raonic gets his own quarter of the draw after reaching the semifinals for the first time last year. Raonic will face fan favorite Dustin Brown to start, with Muller/Fritz to follow, and a struggling Gilles Simon most likely in round 3. Simon opens with Michael Mmoh, and Jared Donaldson or Rogerio Dutra Silva will follow. Simon is the seed, but his form hasn’t been great, I see Donaldson having a bright future,but I’m not quite sure he’s ready to beat Simon yet. Raonic should beat Simon in round 3.
Roberto Bautista Agut is a solid favorite in his own part of the draw. The Chennai champion opens with Guido Pella, with Yoshihito Nishioka or qualifier Alex Bolt to follow. RBA is defending fourth round points and will likely face a third round contest with his countryman Ferrer. I’m going with an upset though, and I have RBA facing Daniil Medvedev the third round, with Medvedev upsetting Ferrer. RBA should reach the second week.
One-time champion Rafael Nadal opens with Florian Mayer, Nadal’s form is a little shaky, but he should beat the veteran Mayer, and the Baghdatis/Youzhny winner, before facing off with talented young gun Alexander Zverev in round 3. Zverev opens with journeyman Robin Haase, and either Frances Tiafoe or Mikhail Kukushkin will follow. Nadal won his only meeting against Zverev, and the veteran should reach the fourth round. Zverev has the ability to beat Rafa, but Nadal’s quality should have an edge in best of 5.
Monfils/Vesely will face Dolgopolov/Coric, with Monfils likely to be opposite Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round. The veteran German faces Nikoloz Basilashvili, with Thomas Fabbiano or Donald Young to follow. Presuming Kohlschreiber is fit, he could test Monfils, but a healthy Monfils is the best player in his section. Monfils leads the h2h 12-2 over Kohli.
Djokovic’s Quarter:
Six-time and defending AO champion Novak Djokovic will do battle with Verdasco, then will face Denis Istomin or qualifier Ivan Dodig in round 2. Djokovic should ease past Dodig with Kyle Edmund likely waiting in round 3. Edmund opens with Santiago Giraldo, with Pablo Carreno Busta or Peter Polansky to follow. Edmund continues to improve, and although I see him defeating PCB in round 2, Djokovic should be a bridge too far.
Brisbane champion Grigor Dimitrov opens with wild card Christopher O’Connell, who is making his Slam debut. Dimitrov has been playing great tennis as of late, and should ease into the third round over Hyeon Chung, after Chung beats Renzo Olivo. Richard Gasquet, who opens with qualifier Blake Mott, looks to be fit, and should beat Mott and Radu Albot or Carlos Berlocq to setup a third round clash of the one handed backhands. Gasquet leads the h2h 5-1, but Dimitrov won their last meeting, and I back the Bulgarian to reach week 2.
Goffin faces Opelka, then the oft-injured Dmitry Tursunov or more likely 38 year old qualifier Radek Stepanek in round 2. Goffin could be tripped up, but I have him reaching round 3, and then dispatching Ivo Karlovic, who opens with Horacio Zeballos. Adam Pavlasek or wild card Andrew Whittington waits in round 2. Karlovic has reached Melbourne’s second week once before, but Goffin seems reliable enough.
Dominic Thiem opens with J.L. Struff, who reached a challenger final in his last outing. Thiem has struggled a bit to open the season, but he should beat Thompson/Sousa in round 2 before running into Lopez in round 3. Chennai semifinalist Benoit Paire is also in this section, opening with the ageless Tommy Haas. Lopez should beat Fognini and Paire before falling to Thiem.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Mischa Zverev, Steve Darcis, Daniil Medvedev, Feliciano Lopez
Zverev could upset Isner and Pouille to reach the second week of a slam for the first time. His brother Alex could also upset Nadal for a big result for the whole family. Darcis, another veteran, has reached the third round of a slam once before, he has a great shot at making it at least that far, and with Kyrgios knee in question he could reach the second week for the first time.
The young Medvedev needs to upset Ferrer and RBA to reach the second week, it’s a tough task, but doable given his talent. Lopez has reached the second week of slams before, and with Thiem and Paire a bit shaky in terms of form, he could well do so again.
Round of 16 Murray d. Isner (8-0 h2h)
Nishikori d. Berdych (4-1 h2h)
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios (2-2 h2h)
Tsonga d. Cilic (3-5 h2h)
Nadal d. Monfils (12-2 h2h)
Raonic d. Bautista Agut (4-0 h2h)
Goffin d. Thiem (5-3 h2h)
Djokovic d. Dimitrov (6-1 h2h)
Murray, Djokovic, and Raonic should be pretty safe to advance into the final stages, Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Nadal should be tested, but I see them surviving. Tsonga should be in better form than Cilic, and Goffin is probably fresher than Thiem.
Quarters Murray d. Nishikori (9-2 h2h)
Wawrinka d. Tsonga (4-3 h2h)
Raonic d. Nadal (2-6 h2h)
Djokovic d. Goffin (5-0 h2h)
These four quarterfinals, if they come to fruition, should be quality matchups. Murray and Djokovic remain clear favorites, Wawrinka vs. Tsonga and Raonic vs. Nadal should be quality and tightly contested matches. Raonic and Wawrinka have had an edge in the past year, and that should continue.
Semis Murray d. Wawrinka (10-7 h2h)
Djokovic d. Raonic (8-0 h2h)
It’s hard to pick against the world’s top 2 players to reach a hard court Grand Slam final.
Final Djokovic d. Murray (25-11 h2h)
Djokovic won in Doha, Murray may be the world #1 for the time being, but Novak still has a clear edge in the h2h, and until Murray can beat him in Melbourne, I have to go with Djokovic over the five time AO finalist Murray.
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