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College Tennis Review: Is your Team Speeding Forward or Off the Rails?

Posted by Admin on April 7, 2016

Posted in: College Tennis, Jeff McMillan. Tagged: 2016, Alabama, Analysis, arizona, Baylor, college tennis, Drake, Duke, georgia, Harvard, Iowa, Loyola Marymount, NCAA, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, SMU, Southern Cal, stanford, TCU, Tennessee, USF, Utah State, UTSA, Wake Forest, washington. Leave a comment

College Tennis Review: Is Your Time Speeding Forward or Off the Rails?
Jeff McMillan, Tennis Atlantic

April is crunch time in college tennis and this season has been a wild one thus far which will undoubtedly set up for a wild finish to the regular season. Here is my look at how certain teams are doing heading down the final tracks of the season.

(the real fun gets started in the off the rails segment at the end.)

Speeding Forward

These teams that are hitting their stride just at the right time and show no signs of slowing.

Wake Forest: The Deacs are on an absolute tear right now and are looking ominous to any team in the country. Even before the massive win in Chapel Hill they were looking great by plowing through several ranked teams. Sunday’s win in Chapel Hill was a culmination of great fight and showed exactly what Wake Forest is capable of moving forward. A huge matchup with Virginia looms.

Georgia: For the early half of the season UGA was not looking all that imposing, certainly not compared to their lofty standards. Ranked as low as 19, the Dawgs were starting to become somewhat overlooked nationally. All that has changed in a hurry in the last few weeks. Georgia revved up their speed on the tracks with a huge home win over Ohio State on March 20^th and have turned the speed to maximum following the dominating performance in College Station this past Friday. Many people expected A&M to win that match and believed that if Georgia was to win it would be in the fashion of sneaking out a 4-3 thriller. Instead the Bulldogs punched the Aggies in the mouth and stole a 4-1 win. They are now 8-0 in the SEC and it looks like once again the SEC title will be heading to Athens.

SMU: Even before the last couple of week this was already a great season for the Mustangs of SMU. Then they decided to turn things up yet another notch by knocking off top 10 Oklahoma State and conference rival USF within the span of little over a week. Now the talk has shifted from will the Mustangs make the NCAA tournament to can they actually host a regional? Regardless of if they host one or not, nobody will want to see the red hot Ponies as their opponent as the season comes to a head.

TCU: This is a team that has not lost since February and one that has not lost at all this year on an open air court. They have not been without their tests but it seems like it’s becoming a college tennis regularity to see a TCU twitter video of Head Coach Roditi celebrating a big win as the Frogs yet again get the victory. The most recent example of this was their heart stopping victory over Texas A&M in front of a hostile crowd. TCU was definitely considered to be a title contender before the year began and they have not shown any signs of disappointing that expectation.

Southern Cal: The whispers of a USC down year had turned to full volume statements following the stunning loss to Washington. But in college tennis things can change in one weekend. The past weekend the Trojans dominated their NorCal conference rivals to make a huge statement. In both matches, the Trojans dropped the doubles point to Cal and Stanford respectively and in both they stormed back in singles to end up with convincing wins. It goes without saying that no matter what the season is, nobody should ever look past the USC Trojans in May.

Northwestern: The Wildcats have been a pleasant surprise this year. People expected them to have a good team but I don’t think anyone anticipated them being this good. The guys from Evanston have only 2 losses on their resume (one of which has since been avenged) thus far and have shown no signs of slowing down. They look set to host a regional as they continue to impress week after week.

Gaining Traction

These teams might are starting to find the track just at the right time

Duke: This extremely young team has had a pretty disappointing year for Duke standards. The Blue Devils fell out of the rankings for a couple weeks in March and the season looked to be shot. But thanks to a good win over NC State on Friday, suddenly things are starting to look up for the Blue Devils. Even more encouraging than the win over NC State was the fight they gave Virginia in match largely expected to be a rout. If they can bring that level of play for the ACC tournament then they can be surprisingly dangerous. (I say ACC tournament because the rest of their regular season schedule is unfortunate with very tough matches vs Wake and UNC and a match vs Clemson which will give them no benefit to winning)

Washington: The NCAA tournament drought for the Huskies looks to be coming to an end this year. The team has shown a lot in recent weeks with solid wins, punctuated with the cornerstone win over Southern Cal. Some tough Pac 12 matches remain vs Stanford, Cal and Oregon but the Huskies look to be playing their best tennis at the right time.

Nebraska: The Cornhusker improvement has not necessarily been shown in wins so far but in how they have played in recent matches. They are starting to really compete vs every team in the Big 10. Only a matter of time before they pull off the desired upset win.

Alabama: Things did not look great for Alabama early in the year and it took a while for things to turn around but now the Crimson Tide look to be finding their game. They are in battles with every SEC team now and most recently pulled out an important win at Ole Miss. They have played themselves into a good position to make the NCAA tournament.

Loyola Marymount: The Lions have been one of the best unranked teams for the past couple of seasons, being right there and threatening ranked teams, so close to the top 75 promised land. Finally they have gotten there this year and are looking like a legitimate contender in the West Coast Conference thanks to 3 consecutive wins over ranked teams.

Utah State: Utah State has quietly built a very solid program out in Logan, one that been a consistent force in the Mountain West. The Aggies have been playing good tennis in recent weeks. They look to be emerging as the favorite to win the Mountain West which is the most evenly matched conference top to bottom in the country.

Losing Steam

These teams are started to slow down when it matters most

Oklahoma State: Not that long ago Oklahoma State was looking very dangerous and like a national title contender. Now they are looking very vulnerable to an early NCAA tournament upset. The Cowboys were badly hurt when their solid #2 player Temur Ismailov pulled a KU Singh (apologies to UGA fans) and abandoned the team midstream to go play in the pros. Suddenly the Pokes lineup is looking mighty thin and just at the wrong time as they are about to start the brutal Big 12 conference schedule.

Stanford: Just how many chances does this team need before people give up on them as a serious contender? All year people parrot how talented Stanford is and how they are going to start gelling at any moment now. I was one of these, I thought this year’s Stanford’s team was finally a legitimate one. But what do they do when they are presented with opportunity? Get blown away in singles by the LA Pac 12 power firm. They do not have a single signature win this year and are running out of opportunities once again.

USF: Similar to Oklahoma State, the Bulls were looking great in the early parts of the year but have since fallen off the pace. And it’s now looking possible that they are the 4^th best team in the AAC (behind Tulane, Tulsa and SMU). The loss to SMU on Saturday was a real eye opener to just how much this team is starting to skid on the tracks. They do not have a real solid option in the lower parts of the lineup and Roberto Cid is having to do too much on his own at the moment.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are 2-6 in their last 8 ACC games and things are not looking good for their hopes of an NCAA tournament berth. Missing the NCAA tournament would be a pretty big disappointment for this veteran heavy team and it will be very hard for them to do so now.

Harvard: A heartbreaking loss for Harvard on Sunday vs Columbia was the cap on what has been a disappointing few weeks for the Crimson. They have lost to a number of teams that are considered to be around their level. They are just losing too many 50/50 matches. They need to find a way to get the killer instinct back.

Drake: After a hot middle part of the year, Drake has hit rough sledding recently. They would not be under the skidding category if it was not for the horrendous loss to William & Mary that they suffered in their most recent match. This match alone is the one that is putting Drake’s tournament chances in jeopardy (still a high chance to win their almost nonexistent conference though).

Off The Rails

These teams have lost the map, way off the tracks and have no way back on

Tennessee: Hey what are the Vols doing on this list?? They are on a 5 match tear! Well as impressive as it is to beat Murray State 4 times in a row when they do not field a full lineup in any of the matches, unfortunately the Vols still end up way off the rails. 0-8 in the SEC and not close to sniffing the top 75. The days of JP Smith, Rhyne Williams and Tennys Sandgren seem like eons ago now. Even the days of Reese and Libietis seem like fairytales now. One thing Tennessee can feel good about is that some teams still consider beating them warrants an excuse to have a mosh pit locker room celebration (see the South Carolina Gamecocks). Any more seasons like this though and teams will treat wins over Tennessee how they treat wins over Boston College. Oh wait some teams consider that win to be cause for rapturous celebration as well (see Clemson Tigers).

Iowa: At one point things were actually looking good for Iowa. They were in the top 35 in the rankings and it looked like they were going to have a rare good season for Iowa tennis. But then Big 10 play started. Well actually two of their worst losses came to non Big 10 teams (Lamar and Cal Poly got em). And they are no longer being competitive, many of the recent losses being routs. Good news for Iowa fans? They can still enjoy watching a 125 pound guy roll around with another 125 pound guy for a chance at an NCAA individual title on youtube replay (spoiler alert… The Hawkeye loses)

Arizona: This selection could be very controversial because it’s debatable whether the Arizona train was ever on the rails in the first place. Naoki Takeda does his best to try and drive the team forward but he alone can’t save a program that seems content to be completely irrelevant (several years now that Arizona has been a non-factor). I’m not sure you’ll believe me… but there’s a legend out there that Arizona once beat UCLA in tennis. In 2010 according to legend. Can’t possibly be true. Let’s stick to the true stories of how the Wildcats took down mighty UC Riverside.

San Diego State: San Diego is a very beautiful city. However it is probably a little less beautiful when you are stuck playing 2^nd fiddle to a cross-town school that is 1/6^th your enrollment size. This was actually supposed to be a good season for SDSU (the heart-eaters, not the fluffy tails from South Dakota) but they have never got on track all season. While they are supposed to be challenging San Diego they are falling behind even teams like UCSB and Santa Clara. Now they have played a tough schedule and the Mountain West is so evenly matched that anything is possible still for the Aztecs.

Baylor: It was always going to be crushing news for Baylor that the Baylor tennis training camps in Budapest and Dortmund would taking a year off this year but even still Baylor was expected to be a good team once again. Compared to the rest of the teams in this section, they are very good but for Baylor standards it is not good. Missing the NCAA tournament is a real possibility as the remaining parts of their schedule are brutal and they just failed to cash in on their best chance for a big win (at home vs Texas Tech. This is about as off the rails as Baylor tennis ever gets.

UTSA: I understand the concept of a down season after you lose several of your top players but how does a team go from a breakout year in 2015 to a 2-17 year in 2016? 2-17. (The Roadrunners actually have 3 wins but they never entered in the win over UIW on ITA so we can’t quite count that one can we?) When you fall behind Texas Rio Grand Valley in tennis after losing to them, a university that has existed for less than a year, you know things are bad. This tennis team does not do a very good job of distracting UTSA fans (they exist? Well I lived in San Antonio for 2 years and I met about 8 in a city of 1.3 million in that time so yes they exist) from their 3-9 football or their 5-27 men’s basketball team.

College Tennis: Early Season Preview and Results

Posted by Admin on January 26, 2016

Posted in: College Tennis, Jeff McMillan, NCAA. Tagged: Arkansas, Baylor, Buffalo, BYU, Clemson, college tennis, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, NCAA, Oregon, resno State, San Diego, South Carolina, Tulane, UC-Santa Barbara, UL-Lafayette, UTSA. Leave a comment

College Tennis: Early Season Preview and Results
Jeff McMillan, Tennis Atlantic

NCAA_Tennis_Logo

College tennis season is officially back in full swing! We had some great dual matches over the past weekend in the ITA indoor kickoff regionals in the second full weekend of the season. It is, of course, exceptionally early to be judging teams and players. However, based on early results there are a few teams that are obviously much better and much worse than a season ago.

I will explore which teams look to be the most improved from last year and also explore which teams appear to have taken significant steps back.

upswing

On The Upswing

San Diego

Each and every year the Torreros put out a strong team, making them one of the top “mid-major” programs in the entire country. This 2016 team appears to be their strongest team yet. Sporting three top 100 ranked ITA players and a top 10 ranked doubles team, San Diego went into snowy Durham (something Cal was unable to do as they had to cancel their trip to Durham) and came out as the winners of the regional. The veteran Torreros used their experience and poise to knock off the Duke Blue Devils on their home court which is no easy feat no matter how young Duke is this year. Senior #35 Uros Petronijevic led the way with a huge 6-4 7-5 win over #12 Nicolas Alvarez at the #1 position. That win in addition to the doubles point set the tone for the match and allowed Filip Vitek and Joshua Page to seal the victory.

Perhaps even more impressive than the win over a non-vintage Duke team was the 4-0 domination of Vanderbilt in the 1st round of the regional. Never letting the Commodores have a sniff at the win.

San Diego will now go on to Charlottesville to compete against the best teams in the country. Their performance there will go a long way to show just how good this team can be. This is THE year for San Diego. The Senior leadership of Uros Petronijevic, Jordan Angus and Romain Kalaydjian plus Junior Filip Vittek create the strong base for the team. These guys have all been together for a few years now and know what it takes to get over the hump and are ready to do so. UMBC transfer Jaan Kononov, who has experience playing #1 at the D1 level adds another layer of depth and dimension to the team as well.

The key for San Diego this year will be whether they can finish the year in the top 16 or not. It is vital that they do so they can host their own regional for once and not rely on the NCAA tournament committee to once again ship them to USC or UCLA and once again be a victim of location. This win over Duke and Vandy shows just what this team can do if they are removed from the confines of LA where they are again and again subject to being sent. Top 16 is absolutely vital. I think they can do it. The Torreros are a top 10 sleeper this year.

Kentucky

Last year Kentucky had a historically bad season. They finished the year outside the top 75 and fell way down in the pecking order of the SEC. It was a hard year for a program that had been used to success and was pushing nationally elite in the days of Eric Quigley. But it seems that the hard times were short lived for the Wildcats. Early into the year it is evident already that this UK team is far more talented and better than the team from a season ago. This team is stronger at the top with a blossoming player in William Bushamuka who will shoot up the rankings more and more as the season goes on. Freshman Ryotaro Matsamura is a massive influx of talent at #2 for this team. He will combine with Bushamuka for a good one-two punch this year. The improvement was immediately apparent last weekend as they went to Duke and shocked the Blue Devils. That is exactly the type of win that the UK team of a year ago was not capable of. They followed that win up with a nice win over an improved Michigan team this past weekend. In both matches Kentucky dominated the top 3 positions with Bushamuka and Matsamura rolling joined with Nils Ellefsen at #3.

The Wildcats do show signs of weakness at the bottom 3 positions however, as they struggled to get wins at 4-6 vs both Duke and Michigan. But the strength of the top 3 could be enough to offset that weakness. Plus if and when Beck Pennington returns to the lineup the Wildcats should turn that strong top 3 into a strong top 4.

Even with the lack of depth this team is certainly lightyears better than the 2015 edition of the Kentucky Wildcats and will make a push for the tournament. The SEC is a big jumble in the middle and I could see the Wildcats pulling some upsets and eventually becoming the breakthrough team of 2016 in that league.

Tulane

Tulane probably does not want to hear this after a gut-wrenching loss to Southern Cal in LA this past weekend but the Green Wave have one hell of a team this year and will be vying for a top 30 or even 25 spot this season. Not just any team can go into the City of Angels and take the mighty Trojans all the way to the wire. They were in the winning position for what would have been a massive upset and program changing win. The only negative you can take away from that effort in LA is that Tulane will now certainly not sneak up on anyone this year. Everyone in the college tennis world took notice of them after this weekend if they were not already aware of the team they have. Because this team is legit all across the board.

The current #1 ranked ITA player Dominik Koepfer spearheads the Green Wave’s ascension. He is backed by a nice mix of talented players including #63 Constantin Schmitz, #111 Sebastian Rey and the Van Cott twins.

Tulane made a move last year and was a much improved team from the 2014 team. They ended up being one of the last teams left out of the NCAA tournament, something that has undoubtedly made this year’s version even hungrier. They have all of their team back this year and they are a year stronger, more experienced and hungrier than ever to achieve more and I believe they will do just that and are my pick to win the American Athletic Conference this year.

Oregon

It could be a dangerous proposition to put too much stock in a near win vs a team that is clearly down from a year ago but that is exactly what I am going to with the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks took Baylor to the absolute limit in Waco before ultimately falling in a 3^rd set tiebreaker (a buster). Waco is one of those college tennis shrines where it is impressive to have a good performance there no matter how good the Baylor team is.

Last year, Oregon disappointingly missed out on the NCAA tournament and took somewhat of a step back from what was expected. However, the 2016 team looks better and back on track. Before falling in heartbreaking fashion to the Bears on Sunday, Oregon dismissed a pretty good Old Dominion team 4-1 and before that, beat a solid UC Santa Barbara team in routine 7-0 fashion. The Oregon of a year ago would have not beat those teams so soundly but they would have been in a battle. The ability to put away dangerous mid-majors like UCSB and Old Dominion shows that this team has its head in the right place. And the fact that they came to battle with Baylor also shows an improvement in team mentality and belief.

A big reason for this improvement is the addition of super talented Freshman Thomas Laurent of France. He is a big add for Oregon and probably one of the most talented freshmen that the Oregon program has ever taken in. He was the player who suffered the clinching rough loss at #2 to Maxime Tchoutakian which was always going to be a tough spot for a freshman to get a big win on the road like that. The rest of the lineup is well balanced, with no weaknesses and no stand outs. Opposing teams will not know where their points will come from during any given match vs Oregon. Oregon should make the tournament this year and could push the Cali Quad in matches in the Pac 12.

On The Upswing honorable mentions: Arkansas, UC-Santa Barbara, Fresno State, BYU, Buffalo

Sliding Downward

downswing

Texas

Tough times were predictable following the departure of the talent laden senior class of 2015. Hess-Olesen, Glasspool and Berkowicz were the backbone and the limbs of Texas tennis the past couple of seasons and to suddenly be deprived of them was always going to be a big blow.

With that being said, the reloading process does not appear to be off to a very good start. Liam Caruana was supposed to be a stud #1 and a big get for the Longhorns, but instead he is playing in the Australian Open Juniors event and has decided against going to Austin for college tennis. A brief glimpse at this Longhorn lineup and it is evident that this team is nowhere close to the top 10 level Texas had become accustomed to the past two seasons. The results have backed that up thus far. A bad loss to a decent but not great Washington team and a lopsided loss to Florida did nothing to show that Texas will be better than the lineup indicates. They did gain a little bit of momentum with a very gutsy comeback effort vs Ole Miss, where they rallied from a set down on four courts and came up just short on one of the four courts. But still that is three losses already into this very young season.

The main problem with this team is at the top. George Goldhoff must take the reins at #1 pretty much by default. He has not been a great player for Texas in his career so far even at the #4 position, you could even say he has been somewhat disappointing and now he must play #1? That is not a recipe for success. Freshman Harrison Scott should be a decent player but he cannot do it all himself. Rodrigo Banzer could help a little bit despite taking one on the chin at #3 vs Ole Miss. John Mee should be a solid bottom of the lineup player in his 2^nd college season but early season results so far indicate he has taken a step back and will not be a big contributor so they must rely on less talented guys to hold down the bottom while struggling at the top.

The Big 12 will be brutal this year as every team aside from Texas looks to be absolutely loaded. Tough year ahead for the Longhorns.

Clemson

One of the teams that looks to be significantly worse this year from a season ago is the Clemson Tigers. Things did not look good ever since the fairly poor fall results in the individual events and the results thus far have not shown any signs of improvement. Two lopsided losses to Dartmouth and Penn State this past weekend showed the lack of talent on the team. There was never a moment in either match where it looked like Clemson had a chance to win. There were not even any what I like to call “create your own victory” scenarios that coaches love to throw out there. And Penn State and Dartmouth are not world beaters. Good teams? Yes. Teams that should be beating you 6-1 if you are an ACC team? No

The real sting in the tail, however, was the loss to Mercer the previous weekend. Mercer is probably not a top 150 caliber team (shown by their awful 6-1 loss to Southern Illinois after beating Clemson).

Now how did Clemson get to this point? Remember this team is only 2 years removed from back-to-back NCAA tournament 2^nd round appearances, being only 1 court away from a Sweet 16 trip each year. The answer is talent. This team has lost a lot of talent recently and has not replaced it. Luke Johnson is a very solid player at the #5 or #4 position but he is having to play #1 now, pretty much by default (much like Goldhoff of Texas as mentioned above). Alexandre Favrot was a bigtime recruit and is supposed to be a great player for Clemson this year. It would probably be best to put him at #1 and see what he can do versus the top talents in the country. The lack of growth from a few of the players at the bottom of the lineup hurts the team as well. Certain players have not shown improvement and therefore they accumulate quite a few losses lower in the lineup. And let’s not forget that Hampton Drake transferred to Duke after having a solid end to 2015 last year.

It’s unlikely that this team will finish the year in the top 75. They will need to have a few upsets in order for that to happen. They will need big contributions from some of the lower lineup guys and hope that Favrot has a breakout year at #1.

Louisville

The Louisville Cardinal are a hard team to figure out, mainly because they lack an identity and their team seems to be a jumble of players who don’t mesh well together. They are clearly not as good as a year ago thanks to the departure of Sebastian Stiefelmeyer, who had one of the best breakout years in the country last year for an individual. So far this year, they have been roughed up by Northwestern, roughed up by Memphis and lost to UC Santa Barbara in a surprise. They showed no lineup consistency in any of those 3 matches. Yes, it is early in the year and they have a very young team, so it is normal to fit and piece things together to see where players fit. But it is a little odd to have players drop in and out of the lineup the way Louisville does (they did this to an extent last year as well).

For instance, Jeffrey Brown and Sean Donohue did not make an appearance in the singles lineup vs UCSB and Brown not vs Memphis either despite player at 2 and 3 vs Northwestern. Also Christopher Morin-Kougoucheff did not play singles in the Cardinals first 2 matches against good competition and then suddenly appears at #3 vs UCSB. This type of lineup inconsistency will certainly keep the opposition guessing but at the cost of destroying team chemistry and individual confidence. This team will need to find some solid answers moving forward but it is looking unlikely with the lack of talent on the roster.

South Carolina

Clemson was not the only team from the Palmetto state that had a rough weekend on the road this past weekend. The Gamecocks equaled their rival’s tough weekend in New Hampshire with a tough weekend of their own in Columbus by falling in consecutive matches to Denver and Wichita State.

On paper, the Gamecocks should really be better this year than they were a year ago. They have an influx of some new talented freshmen and appear to have more depth plus they lost automatic loss machine Andrew Adams to graduation. So what exactly is going on with this team? They have issues at the top, with no dominant #1 type of player. The depth also appears to not be as strong as originally thought.

Gamecock coach Josh Goffi has made it a big point of emphasis in recent years to recruit Americans. This wins him some fans with those who believe college tennis has too many foreigners (I am not one of those people, I like foreigners playing the college game). Goffi gets praised for Americanizing the roster but does not get knocked for the team accumulating losses. You have to wonder if they are just relying too heavily on American freshmen to step in and immediately make a big impact in the college game. It is clear that Yancy Dennis in particular is going to need some time to adapt to the college game before being a big contributor for this team. O’Keefe and Mayronne will have to shoulder a lot of the burden if this team is to be competitive in the SEC this year. Can they do it? It will definitely help if Gabriel Friedrich ever returns from injury. All is not lost for this team (unlike the other 3 on this list), but things will be tough regardless.

Sliding Downward honorable mentions: Duke, Baylor, UTSA, UL-Lafayette

There is still a ton of tennis left to be played. We have only seen 5% of what these teams can do so far. Nothing is guaranteed. Any of these teams written about or listed in the honorable mentions can prove me wrong one way or another. One thing I CAN guarantee though is that this college tennis season will be 100% free from match fixing. And that is definitely not something the ATP can say.

Jeff McMillan (Clemson)