2018 ATP Cincinnati Features the Return of Roger Federer and a Nadal/Djokovic Quarter Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Cincinnati Masters is the final Masters 1000 of the Summer hard court season and the primary US Open prep for most of the ATP’s best. Here is your look at all the action in Mason, Ohio this week.
Nadal’s Quarter:
Rafael Nadal is in the Rogers Cup final and playing great right now, however fitness could be a concern. He’ll start against a qualifier or Milos Raonic, I like Raonic to pull the upset simply because Rafa should be in need of a rest after Toronto. Look for wild card Frances Tiafoe to benefit in a big way here. Tiafoe has to get past Denis Shapovalov first, but presuming he does that Kyle Edmund/Mackenzie McDonald is beatable right now, and Raonic just lost to Tiafoe in Canada. Look for Tiafoe to emerge as an unlikely quarterfinalist.
Novak Djokovic looks set to ease past Steve Johnson and Adrian Mannarino/Marco Cecchinato. While Djokovic disappointed in Toronto he still looks healthy and focused, that should help him defeat Grigor Dimitrov in the third round after Dimitrov defeats Damir Dzumhur/Mischa Zverev.
Alexander Zverev has had a good summer and it would be made better if he could win Cincy. The young German will start against an in-form Robin Haase or Filip Krajinovic, with most likely Pablo Carreno Busta waiting on deck. Richard Gasquet returns from injury vs. PCB while Max Marterer or a qualifier await in round 2. This is Zverev’s section to lose.
Marin Cilic is playing well, he should defeat Philipp Kohlschreiber or a qualifier, and then John Isner or the Toronto semifinalist Karen Khachanov to reach the quarterfinals. Isner faces Sam Querrey first, while Khachanov drew a struggling Albert Ramos. Cilic over Isner is my pick as Khachanov should be fatigued.
Juan Martin Del Potro drew either Hyeon Chung or Jack Sock first. That would normally be a tough matchup but under current circumstances JMDP is a heavy favorite as Chung is still rusty and Sock is in the worst form of his career. I’ll back Borna Coric over a qualifier and a struggling Nick Kyrgios/qualifier to reach the third round before falling to Del Potro.
Toronto finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas is slated to face David Goffin first, while the player he defeated in the semis, Kevin Anderson, is in the same section. If Tsitsipas plays I’ll back him to beat a struggling Goffin and then Benoit Paire or a soon to retire David Ferrer before Anderson gets his revenge and wins in round 3. Anderson has to get past Jeremy Chardy/Fernando Verdasco to reach that point.
Roger Federer returns to tour and should breeze past Joao Sousa/Peter Gojowczyk before facing Andy Murray round 3. Expect Murray to put up a fight after beating Lucas Pouille and Leonardo Mayer/qualifier, but he shouldn’t be at the level yet to beat Federer.
I’ll back Andrey Rublev to upset Kei Nishikori in round 1, as Nishikori was poor in Toronto. Diego Schwartzman should benefit, I’ll back DSS to defeat Stan Wawrinka and then Rublev to reach round 3 opposite Dominic Thiem. Thiem is struggling and should be on upset alert against Marton Fucsovics/qualifier. I’ll back Schwartzman or Rublev to win the section.
Quarters Djokovic d. Tiafoe
Zverev d. Cilic
Anderson d. Del Potro
Federer d. Schwartzman
Zverev should perform well this week while Anderson, Federer, and Djokovic have the inside track to reach the semis. Semis Zverev d. Djokovic
Federer d. Anderson
This is Federer’s tournament to lose but Zverev or Djokovic should challenge him in the end.
2017 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final Masters 1000 tournament of the North American Summer is in Mason, Ohio, of course. Tennis Atlantic will have on-site coverage as most of the top ATP players perform their final tune ups prior to the 2017 US Open in New York.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
August 13-20, 2017
Cincinnati, OH, USA
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,973,120
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (2)
2: Roger Federer (3)
3: Dominic Thiem (7)
4: Alexander Zverev (8)
5: Kei Nishikori (9)*
6: Milos Raonic (10)
7: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12)
Kei Nishikori withdrew after the draw was made with an injury, he joins both of last year’s finalists Andy Murray and Marin Cilic, and of course Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka as major outs for Cincy.
First round matchups to watch:
(9)David Goffin vs. Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios played well in Montreal and is 2-0 against Goffin. On hard court he has a great shot to pull an upset in this matchup, as Goffin isn’t setting the world on fire in terms of his form, having lost in round 2 in Montreal.
Robin Haase vs. Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino is 5-2 in his last seven matches, Haase comes off the semifinals in Montreal, as he had a fantastic week last week. Both players are playing some of the best tennis of their careers, Mannarino’s flat hitting likely gives him a slight edge.
Mischa Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
Zverev is struggling and has never beaten Verdasco (0-4), Verdasco is in poor form as well, so Zverev actually has a good chance to get his first career win against the Spaniard and find some confidence before the US Open.
Steve Johnson vs. David Ferrer
Johnson has lost three straight matches and has never beaten Ferrer. Playing on American hard courts, Johnson should make his best effort, but Ferrer has been finding ways to grind out wins lately.
(10)Tomas Berdych vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
These veteran big hitters have a tied h2h of 4-4, Berdych is playing well, presuming he’s fit. Del Potro has not been in great form on hard courts this summer. A healthy Berdych should be stronger than JMDP, but Del Potro could always rise to the occasion.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal will face either Richard Gasquet or qualifier J.P. Smith. Nadal is a former Cincy champ and should defeat Gasquet, Big server Gilles Muller beat Ryan Harrison in round 1, either qualifier Mikhail Youzhny or Albert Ramos awaits in round 2, Nadal over Muller looks to be a sensible pick in round 3. Look for Kevin Anderson vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round 3, Anderson faces off with qualifier Alex Dolgopolov in round 1, Anderson is 7-2 in his last two tournaments, he should beat Kyrgios or Goffin in round 2 in what would be an exciting matchup. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should find form and beat either Ivo Karlovic or Jiri Vesely, both of whom are struggling in their own right. Anderson has a clear edge over Tsonga and should reach the quarterfinals.
Sam Querrey or Dominic Thiem look well position to take advantage of the opening in the draw left by Kei Nishikori’s injury. Thiem should improve his struggling form against Daniil Medvedev or Fabio Fognini, Querrey will be tested by Mannarino or Haase after beating Stefan Kozlov. Querrey is playing some of the best tennis of his career though, and will be favored until he reaches Thiem, where I have him pulling the upset.
Look for Ferrer to beat Johnson, then a lucky loser, before running into Mischa Zverev in round 3. After Verdasco Zverev will face Pablo Carreno Busta or Paolo Lorenzi, Carreno Busta hasn’t been fit lately, thus I tip Zverev in round 2, with Ferrer set to capitalize the most in this section.
Bottom Half:
Seven-time Cincy champ Roger Federer should brush off a finals defeat in Montreal to defeat either Diego Schwartzman or Karen Khachanov. Schwartzman rose up to make quarters in Montreal and appears to be improving. Jack Sock should beat Yuichi Sugita and either qualifier Joao Sousa or Kyle Edmund. Sousa is in great form, but Sock on hard courts with his forehand should be too much. Federer over Sock is the pick for round 3.
Hyeon Chung or a struggling Feliciano Lopez will meet Grigor Dimitrov in round 2, Dimitrov should beat the next-gen Korean before facing most likely Tomas Berdych round 3. After Del Potro it will be Mitch Krueger or Benoit Paire against Berdych. I give Dimitrov a slight advantage to reach the quarterfinals and take advantage of a big opportunity this week.
Washington and Montreal champion Alexander Zverev is red-hot, Zverev should beat either Frances Tiafoe or his countryman Max Marterer in round 2. John Isner or Donald Young await in round 3, Isner just beat Viktor Troicki while Young faces Tommy Paul. Isner with his big serve could nip Zverev, but even with the fatigue factor the young gun should reach the quarters.
Despite his awful play last week in Montreal, I have a feeling Milos Raonic can turn things around in Cincy. Borna Coric or a struggling Nikoloz Basilashvili will be his round 2 opponent, Roberto Bautista Agut should beat Jared Donaldson and then Gael Monfils (or Chris Eubanks) in round 2. Monfils lost to RBA last week in Montreal, and the Spaniard’s good form should continue. I have Raonic beating Bautista Agut in the third round.
Dark Horse: Adrian Mannarino
If Mannarino can beat Haase and Querrey he could break out in the section that is missing Nishikori. The Frenchman was excellent last week in Montreal and is playing well enough to pull off that feat and put up another great Masters performance.
Predictions
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Querrey d. Ferrer
Raonic d. Zverev
Federer d. Dimitrov
I have Zverev running out of steam in the quarters, while Querrey should break through to Masters semi.
Semis Nadal d. Querrey
Federer d. Raonic
Look for Nadal and Federer to battle for world #1 this week, with Federer coming out on top, largely due to his success in Cincy over the years.
2016 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The field at the 2016 Western and Southern Open is still somewhat up in the air due to the Olympic games finishing up, but it’s a Masters 1000 event, and the final big tune up for most ATP players before the 2016 US Open. Here is a preview, with predictions.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, OH, USA
August 14-21, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,362,385
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (2)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (5)
4: Milos Raonic (6)
5: Kei Nishikori (7)
6: Tomas Berdych (8)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Dominic Thiem (10)
I honestly don’t expect Andy Murray to play here, given he’s in the Olympic final down in Rio. Djokovic, and of course Federer are also absent here, as Novak struggled in Rio and needed a break. American Jack Sock is the only other notable player missing from the draw. We could also see Nadal and Nishikori skip because they are contesting the Bronze medal match at the Olympics.
Both hard court matches between this pair have been close. Dolgo has lost four straight and has had a miserable summer. Anderson has lost a pair of matches in his last two touranaments and has had a horrible season while struggling to stay healthy. Anderson is the favorite, and with both players slumping before the US Open, they badly need a win.
(9)Gael Monfils vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Monfils is 2-1 in the h2h against PCB and he’s a remarkable 12-2 since Wimbledon, all on hard courts. The Frenchman is a US Open dark horse, and he narrowly lost out at the medal round in the Olympics. PCB showed surprising form, reaching the semis in Cabo on hard courts, and could give Monfils a bit of a test in the opening round.
(14)Nick Kyrgios vs. Lucas Pouille
The Atlanta champion Kyrgios should serve his way past fellow young gun Pouille, but Pouille is steadier than Kyrgios, and has had a great season in his own right. These young talents are likely to face off for years to come, and this could be a great match.
Opelka reached the semis in Atlanta on US soil, and also won a round in Cabo. He’s burst onto the scene, with a game that matches fellow tall players John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic most notably. This young American is looking to continue his momentum on the ATP level against the veteran Frenchman Chardy who has lost three straight and hasn’t been healthy recently. An upset looks to be in the cards.
Gilles Simon vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Simon won their first four matches, but Dimitrov has won two of the last three, which all took place this season. Dimitrov was bounced early in the Olympics, but he did reach the quarters in Toronto and has shown spotty form. The Bulgarian is more talented than Simon, but Simon is more consistent. It’s a match that is tough to predict, but I give Dimitrov a slight edge.
Murray’s section:
Andy Murray has won Cincy twice, and as mentioned, I could very well see him being replaced by a lucky loser. His first opponent will be either Juan Monaco, or more likely the red hot Cabo champion Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Karlovic has been playing great, and has two ATP titles this summer. Presuming he’s not too fatigued, I’m going with an upset and having him knock off Murray if he plays, simply due to the Rio hangover factor. The Anderson/Dolgo winner is struggling, which means Richard Gasquet should probably win his first two matches since Wimbledon (he opens against a qualifier) to reach the third round and setup a match with Karlovic or Murray that he has a good shot at winning. Presuming he’s fit, I have Karlovic getting past Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori reached the Bronze medal match in Rio and may withdrawal as well, he’d open with Taylor Fritz or a qualifier, and I have David Goffin emerging from his section to reach the quarters. Goffin will face Janko Tipsarevic if he plays, Tipsarevic comes off a strong challenger showing across the world in China. Joao Sousa or Bernard Tomic will follow for Goffin, both are struggling. Goffin won a pair of matches in the Olympics and should get past Sousa. I have Fritz reaching round 3, because I’m unsure what is going to happen with Nishikori.
Raonic’s section:
Milos Raonic should benefit from the top half of the draw opening up because of the Olympics. The Canadian #1 skipped Rio, and should be able to get past John Isner or Fabio Fognini, and then Roberto Bautista Agut or Alex Zverev to reach the quarters. Raonic lost in the quarters in Toronto, and he’d like to do better than that this tournament. Isner reached the final in Atlanta, but Raonic plays the same game at a higher level. RBA has been consistently solid, and he reached the quarters in Rio, I have Zverev advancing because he should be fresher though. The German faces a qualifier while RBA faces serve and volley expert Nicolas Mahut.
Monfils should dominate his section and reach the quarters, presuming he’s healthy. That would setup a Toronto rematch with Raonic most likely. After round 1, the Frenchman would face either Marcos Baghdatis or Vasek Pospisil, with Dominic Thiem likely to follow in round 3, as long as Thiem beats a qualifier. The Austrian hasn’t been healthy recently as his body has been breaking down after a grueling schedule. Monfils thus has the edge. He dispatched Pospisil in Rio.
Nadal’s section:
If Rafael Nadal plays after a grueling run in both singles and doubles in Rio, he’d face Pablo Cuevas or Sam Querrey in his first match. Given he was still taking it easy on his wrist prior to Rio, I’m relatively confident he’ll withdrawal after the Bronze medal match, but if he plays, he should lose to Nick Kyrgios round 3, if Querrey doesn’t knock him off. Borna Coric and Benoit Paire are also in this section. The young gun Coric would love to challenge Kyrgios but I don’t see him doing that with his poor recent form, while the erratic Paire was kicked off the French Olympic team for bad behavior. Querrey also hasn’t been playing well, meaning Kyrgios is the clear favorite.
I’d be surprised if a fresh Tomas Berdych can’t do something with his open section. Berdych gets a qualifier or Marcel Granollers first up, with most likely Marin Cilic to follow in round 3, presuming Cilic beats Viktor Troicki and the winner of Fernando Verdasco/Albert Ramos. Troicki has been in miserable form, but he’s won five straight against Cilic, who has been on and off this season. Verdasco simply isn’t as good as Cilic these days, and thus I have it Berdych over Cilic for the quarterfinal spot. The h2h is 6-4 in favor of the Czech.
Wawrinka’s section:
Stan Wawrinka reached the semis in Toronto, and despite it not being a standout year for him, he stands alone for Swiss tennis right now with Federer out, and he should dispatch Jared Donaldson/Nicolas Almagro, and Feliciano Lopez (or a qualifier), or the Dimitrov/Simon winner to reach the quarters. I have Dimitrov getting past a likely fatigued Lopez, who reached the finals in Cabo, to reach round 3. Wawrinka should power past him at that stage.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Opelka or Chardy, followed by most likely a struggling David Ferrer in round 3. I have Steve Johnson beating Federico Delbonis, and then upsetting Ferrer, after Ferrer beats Julien Benneteau, to reach the third round however. Ferrer has been in terrible form in recent weeks. The Olympic quarterfinalist Johnson is playing on home soil, is solid on hard courts, and faces a Ferrer and Tsonga who are struggling right now. Although he’s not the favorite, I have him reaching the quarters. He’s beaten Tsonga before.
Dark Horses: Ivo Karlovic and Steve Johnson
Karlovic is always dangerous with his serve, and he’s found form at the right time. If the veteran gets a fast court to play on, he could go as far as the semifinals. Johnson had a great run in the Olympics, and I have him breaking through to a Masters quarterfinal opposite Wawrinka.
Predictions
Quarters Goffin d. Karlovic
Monfils d. Raonic
Kyrgios d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Johnson
Goffin and Karlovic have never played, however Goffin has had a solid season and his consistency in the Masters tournaments should be rewarded with another semifinal. Monfils beat Raonic in Toronto, Kyrgios is in better form than Berdych, and Wawrinka should be the strongest player in his half. After losing to Berdych at the AO early this year, Kyrgios has dominated him twice on hard courts.
Semis Monfils d. Goffin
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios
Monfils is a clear favorite vs. Goffin given the h2h, Wawrinka and Kyrgios have split meetings in their careers, however I give Wawrinka the consistency edge.
These veterans haven’t met since 2011, and much has changed since then. Monfils is playing some of the best tennis of his career, and despite having never won a title of this stature, he’s playing like he can win one in recent weeks.
2015 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final Masters stop on the Emirates Airlines US Open Series is in Cincinnati as most of the top players in the men’s game will attempt to “do the double” and play back to back in Montreal and Cincy. The joint event is one of the best tournaments in the USA and this years Western and Southern Open also promises to be special.
2015 ATP Cincy Preview
Western and Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, OH, USA
August 16-August 23, 2015
Prize Money: $3,826,655
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Kei Nishikori (4)*
5: Stan Wawrinka (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Marin Cilic (8)
8: Rafael Nadal (9)
Of top names, only David Ferrer is absent due to an elbow injury. Kei Nishikori was injured in Montreal and also pulled out, replaced by Alexandr Dolgopolov.
First round matchups to watch:
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco
Tsonga has a 3-1 h2h advantage in this matchup of power baseliners. Verdasco is currently on a four match losing streak, but the big hitting Spaniard played a solid match against Nick Kyrgio and may be turning a corner. Jo won three matches at the Rogers Cup and reached the quarterfinals, with that in mind, his form should carry him to a win here, but this match should feature some great ball striking on both sides of the net.
(10)Gilles Simon vs. Ivo Karlovic
A close h2h (3-2 in favor of Simon) should make this match more interesting than it looks on paper. Simon is higher ranked, but Karlovic has had a solid summer overall and scored a pair of quality wins in Montreal. The Frenchman by contrast suffered an early round 2 exit, and his bland counterpunching game, may not be well suited for the wam-bam thank you ma’am tennis of Karlovic. The styles of play are totally opposite, and if the surface plays fast enough here, I see the veteran Karlovic scoring an upset.
(14)Gael Monfils vs. Jerzy Janowicz
JJ beat Monfils this year at the Australian Open (1-1 h2h), and with that in mind this matchup could also result in an upset, though I’d still say Monfils is the favorite. Janowicz is just 6-6 on hard courts this year, while Monfils exited round 2 in Montreal, and both guys are looking to find some form headed into the US Open. Janowicz is a power hitter, and Monfils is a great mover and defensive player, I favor his skills to find him a win, but it could go to three sets.
(12)Richard Gasquet vs. Nick Kyrgios
Gasquet and Kyrgios will meet for the 5th time in just two seasons as they have a knack for finding each other in draws. Richard won both their meetings this year and overall leads the h2h 3-1, that said Kyrgios, who drew fire for his insults aimed at Stan Wawrinka in the Rogers Cup, is actually playing good tennis right now on hard courts and continues to be a dangerous non-seeded lurker in ATP draws. Kyrgios has a lot of baggage surrounding him, and people are having to take sides either for or against him, but that shouldn’t distract from his actual abilities as a tennis player as the young Aussie reached the third round in Montreal. He may be distracted, but Gasquet pulled out of the Rogers Cup before his first round match, so his health has to be somewhat in doubt. A healthy Gasquet likely has an edge, but I’m picking Kyrgios because Gasquet is in question.
(9)Milos Raonic vs. Feliciano Lopez
Raonic has a 3-2 edge over Lopez as both players are big servers who are comfortable coming to net to finish points. Milos, who has lost two straight matches and was bounced round 1 at his home tournament in Canada, isn’t in great form at the moment and is playing well below what his ranking would suggest. Lopez likewise has struggled this year and has lost two straight matches, as the veteran has been dogged by inconsistent and sloppy play, especially in clutch moments. I doubt this match will feature either player at their best, Lopez will have an upset chance, but I see Raonic surviving and reaching round 2.
Djokovic, a four time finalist who has never won in Cincy, will try once more as the top seed and world #1 to get a trophy he has long sought. He lost in the Montreal final, and though he had some shaky matches in Montreal, and possible elbow problems, he’s still in good form and the best player in the world. First up for Novak is likely to be Gilles Muller (who faces qualifier Benoit Paire, who is in good form, round 1), Djokovic is 2-0 against Muller this year without dropping a set and thus he should win that over the big server. The Tsonga/Verdasco winner could be a danger in his second match though, presuming they win over David Goffin/qualifier Rendy Lu. The Belgian ballstriker is just above .500 on hard courts this year but won two matches in Montreal. Tsonga leads the h2h over Goffin 3-2 and they split meetings this year, given the surface, Tsonga should earn a win and reach round 3.
Tsonga actually won his last meeting over Novak (Toronto 2014), though Novak overall has a h2h edge. The winner will likely come down to Novak’s physical condition, especially with his elbow, Tsonga will have a chance, though I have Djokovic reaching the quarterfinals.
Stan Wawrinka did not perform well in Montreal and he’s just 10-8 in his career in Cincy, with that in mind, expectations have to be low for a player who retired in the third set of his heated match against Nick Kyrgios. I see Wawrinka being bounced out in round 2 at the hands of Borna Coric, presuming the young gun Croatian beats fellow young gun qualifier Alexander Zverev in round 1. Coric is 9-9 on outdoor hard (lost to Wawrinka early in the year) and upset Andy Murray this year on the surface in Dubai, he comes off a close loss to Tsonga in Montreal, and Wawrinka is vulnerable to his abilities, thus look for Coric to get another top 10 win in his young career. The Simon/Karlovic winner will have the inside track to face Coric/Wawrinka round 3 as neither Dominic Thiem nor Martin Klizan (a loser of three straight), are in good form. Thiem should hopefully be rested and adjusted from clay now, but I see him falling to Karlovic in round 2.
I see Karlovic beating either Coric/Zverev or Wawrinka, as he’s in good form, the surface favors him, and he should be able to eke out a win and reach the quarterfinals, in what would be a nice dark horse run for the well traveled veteran. Karlovic beat Coric on clay this year.
*Nishikori’s section:
Kei Nishikori pulled out due to injury and was replaced by Alexandr Dolgopolov, who is likely to face Bernard Tomic in his first match. Tomic upset Marin Cilic in Montreal, reaching the third round, and also won a title this Summer in Bogota, his form is well-known to be inconsistent, but I see the junkballing Aussie beating Sergiy Stakhovsky and then beating the streaky Dolgopolov in a shotmakers special. Tomic vs. Monfils/Janowicz is the likely third round match, Monfils should be able to avoid the upset against Jared Donaldson/qualifier Nicolas Mahut as long as he beats Janowicz, though this tournament will be a good opportunity for the teenage American Donaldson to play against the ATP’s best.
Monfils and Tomic have played just one time at the ATP level (Stockholm 2011), and thus it’s hard to predict a winner, that said if Tomic is in form I see him reaching the quarterfinals as another under the radar threat.
Tomas Berdych, who suffered a shock loss to Donald Young in Montreal, will look to recover and build upon his 19-6 hard court record this season. Presuming nothing is physically wrong with Berdych he should have a decided edge over Jiri Vesely/Thomaz Bellucci in his first match. Vesely has a better outdoor hard court record than Bellucci this year, but Bellucci got some match play in in Montreal, thus I have him beating the Czech before falling to Berdych. John Isner is the likely third round opponent for Berdych in a weak section. Isner has been in fantastic form this summer (Atlanta title, Washington final, Montreal quarterfinals), and he’ll face his countryman Sam Querrey in round 1. Isner is just 1-3 against Querrey and lost to him this year in Memphis, but his form is better, and thus I see him getting his second win in the matchup of long time American top 100 players. Isner should also have the edge over Tommy Robredo, presuming Robredo beats Pablo Andujar round 1 in a clash of Spaniards, these days Isner is the better hard court player.
Berdych is 6-2 against Isner in the h2h, but Isner’s two wins have come on North American hard courts, presuming bg John isn’t overly fatigued I see him scoring the upset over what may be a shaky Berdych to reach the quarterfinals. Isner is a former finalist in Cincy and seems to play hard and enjoy this tournament.
The two-time Cincy and current Rogers Cup champion Andy Murray will look to continue his excellent run of form in Southern Ohio. Murray has a chance to secure world #2 with a good result here and his first match against Mardy Fish/Viktor Troicki isn’t likely to trip him up. Fish will be saying goodbye to Cincy, and though he is 0-2 in his singles matches this year, he could get out of round 1 given Troicki has four straight pedestrian losses. Regardless Murray should cruise over either opponent, and an inspired Fish could rise over Troicki. Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite to face Murray round 3, Dimitrov opens with Lukas Rosol, and though the Bulgarian is struggling right now, he should be good enough to win that one. Dimitrov is 2-2 this summer, while Rosol upset Kevin Anderson in Montreal before losing to Ernests Gulbis round 2. Dimitrov/Rosol will face a qualifier round 2, and a qualifier could also reach round 3. The qualifiers are Denis Kudla and Vasek Pospisil, and they will face off round 1 as Denis looks to continue his good form.
Look for Murray to beat Dimitrov as he’s better than the Bulgarian with a similar style of play, his form is also superior, in fact I don’t even expect it to be a close match like their 2015 AO meeting.
Marin Cilic should be on a path to face Murray in the quarters. The Washington semifinalist got some rest after an early Montreal exit and he’s the favorite against Philipp Kohlschreiber/Joao Sousa round 2. Both players are coming off of European clay and neither have good outdoor hard court records this seasn, though Kohli’s form may be slightly better. Cilic should then face Kyrgios/Gasquet round 3. Kyrgios/Gasquet should face a qualifier round 2, as Fabio Fognini still has yet to win hard court match this season and opens with a qualifier.
Given Kyrgios streaky form, I think Cilic will find a way to win and reach the quarterfinals, an injured Gasquet weakens this section.
Six time and defending Cincy champ Roger Federer will open with Roberto Bautista Agut or Pablo Cuevas. The Swiss maestro has played a somewhat limited schedule this year but he’s 16-2 on hard courts and has two titles, well-rested and focused, he should do well here as he competes to try and maintain the #2 ranking. RBA is in poor form but should have enough game to beat the dirtballer Cuevas, from there Federer should roll through to round 3, where he could meet Jack Sock. Sock was a quarterfinalist in Washington and won two matches in Montreal, thus his form is good. In round 1 he will face Bjorn Fratangelo who has two challenger semis and a challenger final on his resume this summer on the USTA Pro Circuit.
Fratangelo is a rising talent, but Sock should be a cut above as he’s an ATP caliber player right now. I look for Sock to get past Leo Mayer/Kevin Anderson as well since Anderson is in poor form (two consecutive early exits this summer) and Sock beat him in Houston this year, also Mayer is not a great hard court player. Federer beat Sock this year in Indian Wells, and he has a better forehand than even Jack does, giving him an edge.
Rafael Nadal, the 2013 champion in Cincy, will open with Rajeev Ram/Jeremy Chardy round 1, as he continues his efforts to build his ranking back up to top 5 status. Chardy caught fire this week in Montreal, scoring a random deep run to the semifinals, while Ram is struggling since his Newport title. Chardy is likely fatigued, thus I don’t see him as a threat to Nadal, but he should get out of round 1. Rafa improved to 10-5 on hard courts this year with a run to the quarters in Montreal where he played poorly in a loss to Nishikori.
Look for Nadal to beat Lopez/Raonic in round 3, likely Raonic. Adrian Mannarino should be Raonic’s round 2 opponent, presuming he beats a struggling Andreas Seppi. Mannarino has had some good play this season, but Raonic’s big serving should prove to be too much. Nadal is 5-1 against Raonic and his only loss was a close three setter in Indian Wells this year. Raonic’s form is worse than it was then, and thus Rafa should move to 6-1 with his strong defensive play.
Dark Horses: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Bernard Tomic, Nick Kyrgios, Jack Sock
If Tsonga can get to the third round, he’ll have a chance to upset Djokovic and go as far as the final, he has the talents, it’s just putting it all together for a week long run. Tomic should take advantage of Nishikori’s injury and reach the quarterfinals, presuming he can find consistency and focus at a big tournament, he could even get as far as the semis.
Kyrgios will have to get past Gasquet and likely Cilic, but if he does he’ll be in the quarterfinals with a punchers chance against Andy Murray. The media will be watching, as will the fans given his recent behavior.
Sock continues to rise and on home soil he may well get another shot at Federer in round 3. I don’t see him winning that, but even putting up a good effort would be a good sign for his upcoming US Open campaign.
Quarterfinals: Djokovic d. Karlovic
Isner d. Tomic
Murray d. Cilic
Federer d. Nadal
Djokovic has always struggled with Karlovic (1-3 h2h including a loss this year), and I could well see Dr. Ivo pulling off another win over the world #1 if the conditions are right and Novak’s elbow gives him problems. That said I don’t have the boldness to pick that result.
Isner has a lone h2h win over Tomic and should continue his good run of form on the US Open Series, Murray has a 10-2 h2h over Cilic and is simply outplaying everyone except Djokovic and possibly Federer on tour right now.
Nadal has a good h2h record and matchup advantage vs Fed but his hard court form still isn’t great at the moment and given this is Cincy I see his run ending at the hands of the Swiss.
Semifinals: Isner d. Djokovic Federer d. Murray
Djokovic is 7-2 (2-0 this year) against Isner, but one of those losses came in Cincy (2013) and something tells me Isner is going to rise up and grab a win this time if they meet, due to his good form and motivation at home, while Novak may well want a break before the Open. This tournament is a great chance for the American #1 to reach another Masters final.
Federer outplayed Murray at Wimbledon with masterful tennis, and Murray may be somewhat worn out at this point, it could be a great match, but like the above matchup, something tells me Federer finds a way to win in Cincy.
Final: Federer d. Isner
Federer is the better player and has dominated the history of this tournament in his career, I see him taking the title as long as he gets past Murray, whether he faces Djokovic, Isner, or some other opponent in the final.
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