Roger Federer failed to put together consecutive top class performances, and it was Novak Djokovic who once again walked away with the Wimbledon title. The 2015 trophy is his third at the All-England club, and he’s the first repeat winner at Wimbledon on the men’s side since Federer in the mid 2000’s. Djokovic has now won two slams this year, and continues to be secure in the world #1 ranking spot, as he’s the best player in the men’s game right now by some margin.
Djokovic beat Federer in three hours, and four sets 7-6(1) 6-7(10) 6-4 6-3, as Federer fought hard to try and get the first two sets, but his quality declined over the final two frames. In set 1 Federer went up a break 4-2, but lost his serve the next game, he would later have two set point chances on Djokovic’s serve at 5-6, but Novak saved them both in a long service game, and then rolled through the tiebreak as Federer’s chances disappeared.
The Swiss would fight back in the second, even after failing to convert two more break point chances at 2-2. He staved off a set point serving 4-5, and then in the second set tiebreak saved an incredible six set points, including three consecutive down 3-6 in the tiebreak, before finally converting his second set point serving 11-10 in the tiebreak.
At this point Djokovic was angry, but he used that anger to fuel his game to another gear, a gear that Federer lacked. After dealing with an assault of winners from Fed, and some sloppy errors on his part in the first two sets, Djokovic buckled down and broke for 2-1 in the third, after failing to convert two break points in the opening service game of set 3. There would be a rain delay a couple of games later, but Federer didn’t look any better coming out of it, as Djokovic held the rest of the way and took the third 6-4, forcing Federer into a difficult position.
In set 4, Federer appeared to struggle with the wind and his error count went up considerably, he lost his serve at 2-3, and never recovered, failing to generate a break point on the Djokovic serve. At 3-5 he was broken again, gifting Djokovic the match on his first match point. Statistically, both men served at a similar level, but Djokovic was more efficient facing break point, as he saved 6 out of 7, while Fed saved 6 of 10, after previously only being broken once all tournament. Djokovic was also cleaner from the baseline as he slapped 46 winners compared to 16 errors, while Federer had a 58/35 spread. Simply put, Djokovic’s superior returning was enough to win the day against his elder rival as the Serbian sporting legend demonstrated he has shaken off any mental cobwebs from his shocking French Open final defeat to Wawrinka.
Surely Djokovic will enter the summer Masters tournaments, and the US Open as the favorite as he bids to win 3 out of 4 slams on the season. Federer meanwhile demonstrated he still has more good matches left in him, as his play at times this week was fantastic, even compared to his level of play in his prime. Winning a five set match against a physical opponent will likely continue to be a tough ask in a slam final, but Federer remains as the world #2 for good reason, and his longevity and grace is something to behold, as we truly are in a great era for men’s tennis.
In the second week, it was infact Djokovic that had to fight harder to reach the final, he shockingly went down 2-0 against Kevin Anderson, as the South African won a pair of tough tiebreaks 8-6 and was serving at a peak level, a level Djokovic was dazed by. The world #1 would do what world #1’s do however, as he found the spirit within himself to wake up, and remind Anderson beating the best in the world doesn’t come easy. He won the third set 6-1, and the fourth 6-4 as Anderson collapsed under the pressure of trying to pull off what would have been a massive upset. At this point, darkness suspended the match, and the next day Djokovic came out and won the fifth set 7-5. Anderson fought harder than expected to try to recover and finish the upset, but Djokovic had that extra gear that Kev couldn’t reach, in what was the biggest test for Novak of the 2015 tournament.
He went on to roll past a fatigued Marin Cilic in straights 6-4 6-4 6-4, and then outplayed, and outworked Richard Gasquet, a surprise semifinalist 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4. Gasquet played some of the best tennis of his career, as he upset Stan Wawrinka in the semifinals 11-9 in the 5th set. Wawrinka played well overall, as grass isn’t his best fit as a surface, and his first four wins were great, but Gasquet’s backhand befuddled him and he couldn’t get over the hump. It was an accomplishment for the classy French veteran to reach a grand slam semifinal as a 21 seed regardless, in round 4 Gasquet beat Nick Kyrgios in a close fourth set tiebreak, erasing the awful memory of his defeat last year against the volatile young Aussie.
As for Federer, he had little trouble against Roberto Bautista Agut, who was hampered by a sprained ankle and fell in straights, and then he beat Gilles Simon, another Frenchman who had a successful tournament, but had little to threaten the world #2. Simon beat Gael Monfils and Tomas Berdych on the week, but lost to Federer in 3 sets. In the semis, it was Andy Murray, who was also playing great tennis at Wimbledon. Murray came into the match as a slight favorite after a pair of week two wins over the big serving Ivo Karlovic in four sets, and surprise quarterfinalist Vasek Pospisil in three sets. Pospisil was the player who took advantage of the soft section in the draw, and reached his first ever slam quarterfinal, as he continues to occasionally show he still is a player with promise, especially on fast surfaces that suit his underrated serve.
Murray didn’t play poorly at all against Federer as he kept his first serve % high, and his error count relatively low, but Federer was simply stunning, putting up one of the serving performances of his career. The world #3 and UK number #1 often failed to generate even half chances against the Federer serve, and the Swiss broke when needed with his controlled aggression, world-class forehand and crisp volleys to take the match 7-5 7-5 6-4. His home fan base was certainly disappointed, but Murray really did all he could this tournament, and Federer on the day was just too good for anyone, as Murray again came up short in his quest to win another Wimbledon. All the same he’s had a good, and consistently top-tier year as he appears healthy, and happy with his tennis.
In the men’s doubles a surprise final took place as the #4 seeds Jean-Julien Rojer, and Horia Tecau beat Jamie Murray, the brother of Andy, and his partner John Peers the #13 seeds 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4. Tecau had previously come up short in Wimbledon finals, so finally taking the championship was a major career highlight for him. A qualifying team of Jonathan Erlich and Philipp Petzschner reached the semifinals, beating #2 seeds Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo in the process, while the Bryan brothers lost in the quarterfinals to Florin Mergea and Rohan Bopanna.
The (primarily) North American hard court summer will begin in earnest for many of the worlds top players now as the focus shifts towards the US Open Series, on the road to the 2015 US Open, as many great matches have yet to be played in 2015.
Serena Williams fought off a Garbine Muguruza fight back to complete the ‘Serena slam’ and lift the Venus rosewater dish for a sixth time.
The world number one came through in straight sets 6-4, 6-4 and is now only one major victory away from completing the calendar year grand slam and matching Steff Graf’s total of 22.
It was no made easy as a nervy start from Serena was punished by Muguruza. Three double faults gifted the Spaniard an early break, and she hold on to take a 4-3 lead.
However after hesitating on a short FH at 15-0, the confidence Muguruza had in her game began to disappear. Sensing this the 20 time grand slam champion rose her level as she often does to break back and then take the first set 6-4.
With her serve and return now found, Williams began to run away with the second set. A struggling Muguruza dropped serve twice leaving Serena to serve it out at 5-1. But the 21 year old was not done yet.
In a situation where a lot of players would crumble, Muguruza fought back. A tight Serena lost her serve, and then Muguruza would hold to take the score to 5-3. An incredible game saw the Spaniard earn three break points which were all saved by the big serve we have come accustomed to seeing. Serena earned match point which Muguruza fought hard to save, and the Spaniard soon found herself back in the match with a forehand down the line to incredibly break back.
All of a sudden the pressure was on the 20th seed to serve to stay in the match. A double fault, a net cord and two loose forehand’s later the match ended, much to the disappointment of the now silent centre court.
It was a confusing and bizarre finish to the match, but all that matters is Serena had done it. She has finally claimed her sixth Wimbledon title and completed the ‘Serena slam’ for a second time.
BBC’s Sue Barker conducted the traditional on court interviews.
“Garbine played so well.” Williams said. “I didn’t even know it was over – she was fighting so hard at the end. Congratulations – don’t be sad, you’ll be holding this trophy very, very soon, believe me!
“I can’t believe I’m standing here with another Serena Slam. It’s really cool. And the crowd helped me through it – I heard all the ‘I love you’ and I love you more! It’s such an honour. It feels so good.”
Serena now holds all four grand slams, the Olympic gold and the year-end championships making this the second ‘Serena slam’. The first was the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open in 2002 and Australian Open in 2003. She is now one shy of Steffi Graf’s 22 grand slams and three shy of Margaret Court’s 24.
Muguruza could not prevent the world number one from winning her 21st grand slam, but she can still hold her head high after a great run to the final. The Spaniard’s aggressive play and charming personality earned her plenty of fans and she received a standing ovation from the centre court crowd.
“I’m very happy and proud to be playing in front of this amazing crowd,” Muguruza said of her first Grand Slam final. “I love to play on big courts, and a Grand Slam final is just a dream come true for me.
“But I also want to say congratulations to Serena. She’s showing us she’s still World No.1.”
Muguruza will now move to number 9 in the world rankings thus breaking the top ten for the first time in her career. She will also be on course for a top eight finish which will see the 21 year old make the year end championships.
Martina Hingis rolled back the years to secure the doubles title with her partner Sania Mirza. The top seeds beat Russian pairing Elena Vesnina and Ekaterina Makarova 5-7, 7-6 (4), 7-5.
Week 1 at Wimbledon finished with a late night five-setter under the centre court roof, as once again grass court tennis brought out the best in some of the top ATP players, and the worst in others. Most of the favorites are still in contention, and are resting up on this middle Sunday to prepare themselves to race to the finish line next week. We saw a couple of wild upsets, but all in all the quality of the week 2 field is excellent, and here is a look at the matchups, and a bit about what happened in the first week.
Men’s round of 16 matchups
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (14)Kevin Anderson
Novak Djokovic has once again rolled through week 1 of slam with an unblemished resume, as he fought off challenges from Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, and Bernard Tomic without dropping a set. Now however, the real test of his form will begin, starting with the big serving and lanky Anderson who beat Lucas Pouille in 4 sets, the surprising Marsel Ilhan also in 4 sets, and Leonardo Mayer in straight sets. Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has won their last four meetings, his form on return has been excellent and he’s gotten breaks when needed, suggesting to me he’ll be able to break Anderson in the clutch and come away with a win, in three to four sets. As asides, Nieminen ousted Lleyton Hewitt from Wimbledon in a long fifth set in round 1, ending the former champion’s illustrious Wimbledon career in singles, while Ilhan shocked former Wimbledon semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz in round 1, and make Turkish fans swell with pride in one of the bigger week 1 upsets. After the Djokovic match, Tomic lashed out at Tennis Australia over their lack of support for him, and made more headlines off the court than on this tournament. Djokovic in 4 sets
(9)Marin Cilic vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Marin Cilic has had to claw his way into week 2, while American wild card Denis Kudla has cemented himself as a talented grass court specialist with his own memorable Wimbledon run this year. The Croatian beat Hiroki Moriya in straights, but then needed five sets against both Ricardas Berankis and John Isner to advance into the round of 16.
Berankis gave it his all, serving well against a bigger player in Cilic, but the former top junior came up just short 7-5 in the 5th, while Isner served his way to two sets, but lost two tiebreaks, and then after getting the 5th set to 10-10 and forcing a suspension of play due to darkness on Friday night, came out flat Saturday morning and lost two consecutive games for a 12-10 fifth set loss. Isner once again disappoints in a slam, as the American #1 couldn’t get over the hump, even on a favorable surface such as grass.
As for Kudla, he’s keeping American hopes alive on the men’s side and it started with a comeback from 2 sets to love down against the veteran Pablo Cuevas who ran out of gas late, after that he defeated pesky young gun Alex Zverev in four, and Santiago Giraldo also in five sets, staving off a collapse in the third set to win the final two frames 6-1 6-3.
Kudla is 13-1 on grass in 2015, and given that Cilic struggled with the undersized ball striker Berankis, and could be dealing with a bit of fatigue, the American baseliner will get his chance to counterpunch to a win. That said he’ll need to be mentally strong nad maintain his serve to have a chance, and Cilic is still the favorite given experience, and ranking. Kudla will never have a better chance at beating Cilic than on grass, but I think he’ll come up just short in 4 or 5 sets. Cilic in 5 sets is my pick. Kei Nishikori, the favorite in this section, withdrew with an injury after a five set win over Simone Bolelli in round 1.
Stan Wawrinka has looked to be on his game at Wimbledon this year, he beat Joao Sousa, Victor Estrella, and Fernando Verdasco without dropping a set, and wasn’t threatened by any of those opponents. When Stan gets on a roll and gets hot, like he did in Paris, watch out, and David Goffin is likely his next victim in the round of 16. The Belgian is 0-2 against Wawrinka in his career (including a loss in Chennai this year), but he does have the fact he has won three matches without a hint of struggle increasing his chances in this one.
Goffin demolished Horacio Zeballos, Liam Broady, and solid grass court player Marcos Baghdatis and has only had three close sets of tennis out of the 9 he’s played. Both these players are in great form, but Wawrinka’s backhand and brute power should blitz Goffin, resulting in Wawrinka in 4 sets. It should also be mentioned that Broady came back from two sets to love down against Marinko Matosevic, as the young Brit was aided by the crowd to an upset victory in round 1.
(21)Richard Gasquet vs. (26)Nick Kyrgios
A rematch of both their meeting this year in the Estoril final (Gasquet won with ease on clay), and their epic 2014 Wimbledon match (Kyrgios saved more than a half dozen match points to win 10-8 in the fifth set from two sets to love down), this one could prove to be yet another classic if the Frenchman and the Aussie bring their a-game. Gasquet hasn’t dropped a set and rolled through Luke Saville, Kenny De Schepper, and Grigor Dimitrov with ease, the win over Dimitrov was particularly impressive as the Bulgarian never pressured him, even on grass.
Kyrgios beat Diego Schwartzman and Juan Monaco in straights, and made more waves for his outbursts on court and behavior towards the chair umpire than for his tennis results. In round 3 that changed though, as he upset Milos Raonic in 4 sets to setup this match. Raonic was particularly poor on return in that one, and once again the aggressive approach of Kyrgios seems to be paying off for him on grass.
It’s hard to predict how this one will go, and Gasquet is more “reliable” as a commodity, but Kyrgios certainly has more peak, and he seems healthy and motivated, with that in mind, I’m going with Kyrgios to reach his second consecutive Wimbledon quarterfinal and upset Gasquet in 4 sets. Kyrgios in 4 sets. He’s becoming an unpopular player in the eyes of some folks, but that doesn’t make him any less talented, even though Gasquet will be a tough opponent to oust.
(22)Viktor Troicki vs. Vasek Pospisil
Thanks to Rafael Nadal being upset once again at Wimbledon, this time by the aggressive serve and volleyer Dustin Brown in 4 sets, this is the round of 16 matchup we have (also aided by David Ferrer’s pre tournament withdrawal). Troicki defeated Alex Nedovyesov and Aljaz Bedene in four sets, before getting past the dangerous but inconsistent Brown in the same number of sets. Dreddy’s aggressive style worked against a defensive and flat footed Rafa, but Troicki’s more varied game was a more challenging matchup, as the Serbian has regained his great grass court form and still serves as a dark horse of the players remaining.
Vashy has found success in both singles and doubles this time at Wimbledon, the Canadian has been popping serves and survived a five setter with Vincent Millot in round 1. After coming through that he found it a bit easier against Fabio Fognini in round 2, advancing in four sets, and then he had to win 8-6 in the 5th against home hero James Ward, who had a cinderella run to the third round and will now be ranked inside the top 100 for the first time in his career. The long five setter had very few break point chances, and Pospisil did what he needed to do to get the win with a late 6-6 break.
Troicki and Pospisil have never met before, and Pospisil’s serve could keep Troicki at bay, that said, Pospisil is likely to be more fatigued than Troicki, and the Serbian has shown more consistent ability on grass. At the end of the day Troicki should outperform the remaining Canadian in this draw and advance in 4 sets. Troicki in 4 sets
Andy Murray is 5-0 against Dr. Ivo, and has a Wimbledon win against him (2012 4 sets), that said the massive serving Croatian always presents a unique challenge on grass, a challenge the Brit will have to rise to face if he is to end the week holding the trophy. Murray has thus far been relatively unchallenged by Mikhail Kukushkin, Robin Haase, and Andreas Seppi, dropping just 1 set this week in three matches. Kukushkin nearly came away with a set but choked under pressure, while Seppi took a set that was aided by Murray having shoulder pain, but an injury timeout quickly resolved things, and the counterpunching Scot otherwise has looked solid on serve and on return this week.
Karlovic has had to battle to get this far, but the veteran has scored impressive wins over Elias Ymer in 4 sets, Alex Dolgopolov in 5 sets (13-11 in the 5th) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 4 sets. Tsonga survived Gilles Muller, another big server, in round 1, but Karlovic proved two much for him as he was awful on return, and due to a controversial call in the 4th set tiebreak between them, lost the match instead of forcing a fifth set. Dolgopolov likewise battled and they played just one tiebreak (a tiebreak he won), but his serve broke down under pressure in the 5th.
Given the head to head, I have to go with Murray, and I do think he’ll get through this, presuming the shoulder is ok, without dropping a set. At Karlovic’s age he should be more fatigued at this point, and Murray should be quick to exploit that as he is one of the best returners in the game. Murray in 3 sets
(6)Tomas Berdych vs. (12)Gilles Simon
Perhaps the most interesting matchup at this stage, Simon is 6-4 against Berdych in the h2h, but Berdych won their meeting this year and they have never faced each other on grass. The Czech has had a relatively comfortable draw as he got past Jeremy Chardy in two tiebreaks and four sets, and then rolled past the serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut in straights, and surprise third rounder Pablo Andujar in 4, as Andujar started strong but couldn’t maintain that level.
Simon beat Nicolas Almagro in straights and Blaz Kavcic in four sets, then won a late night five setter against Gael Monfils to conclude the third round on Saturday night. The match began on court 1, but after three sets (Simon leading 2-1) was moved to centre court under the roof, so that the third round could finish with middle Sunday looming. Simon got off to a slow start at the new venue but Monfils ran out of gas and he finished it 6-2 in the 5th before the 11 P.M. curfew.
Simon will rally in this one, while Berdych will bring his power to this matchup, and it could go either way, that said Berdych has been the better player in 2015, and his current form suggests he’ll prevail in this one, given the fast surface of grass should aid his chances. Berdych in 4 sets
(2)Roger Federer vs. (20)Roberto Bautista Agut
Federer demolished RBA twice last year, and he’ll seek to do so again as he continues his quest for yet another Wimbledon title. The Swiss maestro has been in tune with his tennis against Damir Dzumhur, Sam Querrey, and Sam Groth, dropping just one set against Groth, and beating the others in straights. His level dropped, and Groth, a big server, pushed hard to take the fourth set, but otherwise Federer has been firing winners, and his game has been especially clean, with very few unforced errors this tournament.
As for RBA, he beat Ruben Bemelmans in 3 sets, Benoit Paire in 5 sets, and qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili in 3 sets to advance this far. The Spaniard has had a weak draw that has worked in his favor, and given Federer’s controlled aggression, the result should be Federer in 3 sets.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament:
Quarters: Djokovic d. Cilic in 3 sets
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios in 4 sets
Murray d. Troicki in 3 sets
Federer d. Berdych in 4 sets
Djokovic is 12-0 in his career against Cilic, he’s looked solid this tournament and Marin should be exhausted to this point, barring a shock, Djokovic shouldn’t even drop a set.
Wawrinka just beat a slightly injured Kyrgios at Queens, and his game is clicking right now, whether it’s Gasquet or Kyrgios, Stan the man should get past either without pulling his hair out.
Murray is 7-0 against Troicki (including a win not long ago in Queens on grass), it’s simply not a good matchup for Viktor, and presuming Murray doesn’t have any lingering shoulder issues he should cruise into the semis without Nadal in his way.
Federer has won his last three meetings against Berdych and he should avenge their last Wimbledon meeting (2010), and beat the mentally weak Czech to reach the semis
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka in 5
Murray d. Federer in 5
Both semifinals could be true classics this year, Wawrinka is the one opponent Djokovic would not like to face right now, given Stan crushed him in Paris, that said this is grass not clay, and the faster surface should favor Djokovic if he doesn’t have a mental block against the Swiss. The world #1 is now 2-2 in his last four against Wawrinka as they have a truly even rivalry going at this point in time. Wawrinka in his current form will have a great chance to reach the final, and perhaps even win the title, but Djokovic should be able to recover from the Roland Garros result and reach the final at Wimbledon as he bids for his second straight title.
Murray-Federer is the matchup most people have been craving since the draw was released, as they are two of the purest and best grass courters in the current mens game right now. As legend goes, Murray won at the Olympics on grass to get the gold, while Federer won a few weeks prior in the Wimbledon final back in 2012. At this new stage in their careers, Murray is in perhaps the best form of his career, while Federer isn’t quite as sharp as he was in best of 5 sets compared to 2012, that should flip this result and see the UK #1 bidding for Wimbledon title number 2, with considerably lessp pressure than 2012 or 2013.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic in 5 sets
I’m predicting five set semifinals and a five set final, because it’s incredibly hard to decide between these two great grass courters, as to who the champion will be. Djokovic would be a probable favorite if he got this far, and his recent success against Murray certainly makes him a deserving favorite. That said Murray has won a Wimbledon final over Djokovic before, and he’s played the world #1 better this year with each match. Grass is his best surface in terms of having a chance to win another slam, and beat Djokovic, and with that I’m going with Murray like I said at the start of the tournament to take home Wimbledon #2 and Slam #3.
2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 24-25 (Wimbledon) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Our apologies on the delay in posting, as our staff has been busy over the weekend, but without further adieu here are our experts picks for Wimbledon 2015 on the men’s side.
Wimbledon
Wimbledon 2015 Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Hewitt, Herbert vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Granollers, Janowicz vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Berankis, Ebden vs. Isner, Kudla vs. Zverev, Giraldo vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Becker, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Millman vs. Baghdatis, Broady vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Johnson, de Schepper vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. F. Mayer, Haas vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Vesely, Pospisil vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Stepanek, Brown vs. Nadal, Muller vs. Istomin, Dolgopolov vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Stakhovsky, Falla vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Mahut, Rosol vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Mannarino, Sugita vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Basilashvili, Youzhny vs. Bemelmans, Sock vs. Jaziri, Querrey vs. Federer
Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Isner, Kudla vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Verdasco, Baghdatis vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. Raonic, Vesely vs. Pospisil, Troicki vs. Nadal, Muller vs. Dolgopolov, Seppi vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Rosol, Monfils vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Bemelmans, Sock vs. Federer
Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Baghdatis, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Pospisil vs. Nadal, Dolgopolov vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs.Cilic, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Niall Clarke’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Hewitt, Herbert vs. Tomic, L. Mayer vs. Tipsarevic, Janowicz vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Haider-Maurer, Ebden vs. Isner, Cuevas vs. Zverev, Giraldo vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Becker, Klizan vs. Thiem, Robredo vs. Baghdatis, Matosevic vs Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Johnson, de Schepper vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. F. Mayer, Haas vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Vesely, Pospisil vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Bedene, Brown vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Istomin, Dolgopolov vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Stakhovsky, Falla vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Mahut, Gulbis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Mannarino, Kavcic vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Basilashvili, Paire vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Duckworth, Querrey vs. Federer
Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Tomic, L.Mayer vs. Janowicz, Cilic vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Klizan, Baghdatis vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Pospisil, Troicki vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Murray, Mahut vs. Gulbis, Monfils vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Federer
Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Janowicz, Cilic vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Nadal, Karlovic vs. Murray, Mahut vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs.Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Murray, Simon vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Joe Craven’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Hewitt, Herbert vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Tipsarevic, Janowicz vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Berankis, Ebden vs. Isner, Kudla vs. Zverev, Giraldo vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Becker, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Robredo vs. Baghdatis, Matosevic vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Johnson, de Schepper vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. F. Mayer, Haas vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Vesely, Pospisil vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Stepanek, Brown vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Istomin, Dolgopolov vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Stakhovsky, Haase vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Mahut, Gulbis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Mannarino, Kavcic vs. Simon, Darcis vs. Basilashvili, Youzhny vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Duckworth, Sijsling vs. Federer
Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Janowicz, Cilic vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Verdasco, Baghdatis vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. Haas, Vesely vs. Fognini, Stepanek vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Karlovic, Stakhovsky vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Gulbis, Monfils vs. Simon, Darcis vs. Youzhny, Sock vs. Federer
Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Janowicz, Isner vs. Nishikori, Verdasco vs. Goffn, Gasquet vs. Kyrgios, Fognini vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Simon, Darcis vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs.Isner, Verdasco vs. Kyrgios, Nadal vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Kyrgios, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Nieminen, Herbert vs. Tomic, L. Mayer vs. Tipsarevic, Janowicz vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Haider-Maurer, Ebden vs. Isner, Cuevas vs. Zverev, Giraldo vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Becker, Verdasco vs. Sela, Robredo vs. Baghdatis, Matosevic vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Johnson, de Schepper vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. F. Mayer, Haas vs. Raonic, Vanni vs. Vesely, Pospisil vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Bedene, Lu vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Istomin, Dolgopolov vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Stakhovsky, Falla vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Mahut, Gulbis vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Mannarino, Sugita vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Basilashvili, Youzhny vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Jaziri, Querrey vs. Federer
Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Tomic, L. Mayer vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Verdasco, Baghdatis vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Gasquet, F. Mayer vs. Raonic, Vesely vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Dolgopolov, Seppi vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Federer
Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Fognini vs. Nadal, Dolgopolov vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Monfils, Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs.Cilic, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Nadal vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Jeff McMillan’s picks
Round 2 matches: Djokovic vs. Nieminen, Chung vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Granollers, Janowicz vs. Anderson, Cilic vs. Haider-Maurer, Ebden vs. Isner, Kudla vs. Zverev, Giraldo vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Becker, Verdasco vs. Thiem, Robredo vs. Young, Matosevic vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Johnson, Smith vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. F. Mayer, Lajovic vs. Raonic, Ward vs. Vesely, Pospisil vs. Fognini, Troicki vs. Bedene, Brown vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Istomin, Dolgopolov vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Stakhovsky, Haase vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Mahut, Rosol vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Mannarino, Kavcic vs. Simon, Lopez vs Basilashvili, Paire vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Duckworth, Querrey vs. Federer
Round 3 matches: Djokovic vs. Tomic, Kokkinakis vs. Janowicz, Cilic vs. Isner, Zverev vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Verdasco, Robredo vs. Goffin, Dimitrov vs. Gasquet, Kyrgios vs. Raonic, Vesely vs. Pospisil, Troicki vs. Nadal, Tsonga vs. Karlovic, Seppi vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Garcia-Lopez, Monfils vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Bautista Agut, Sock vs. Federer
Round of 16 matches: Djokovic vs. Janowicz, Cilic vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Goffn, Gasquet vs. Raonic, Vesely vs. Troicki, Tsonga vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Simon, Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs.Cilic, Wawrinka vs. Raonic, Troicki vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Our experts are going with the usual suspects by and large, Murray is the favorite with 4/5 of us, and Federer and Djokovic are also expected to do well, with mixed opinions on Wawrinka/Raonic for the other semfinalist. Joe goes bold and has Kyrgios in the semis, and Djokovic taking the title.
The most famed slam of them all is here, as the best men’s and women’s tennis players in the world will take to the crisp grass courts of Wimbledon in a show of skills, as they begin the quest for points and glory at SW19. Now that the draw is out, here is a preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon 2015 Preview
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
London, England
June 29-July 12, 2015
Prize Money: 26,750,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Milos Raonic (8)
8: David Ferrer (7)*
Even with the more complex Wimbledon seeding system, the top 8 seeds, are the top 8 players in the world presently, with Raonic and Ferrer switching spots.
All of the top names are here except for David Ferrer, who withdrew with an elbow injury after the draw was made.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Novak Djokovic will have to face the toughest round 1 opponent he’s faced at a Grand Slam in years, as the unseeded Kohlschreiber is a dark horse on grass in his own right, and even though he is 1-6 in the h2h, he’ll surely give this match his best effort. Djokovic, the defending, and two time, Wimbledon champion, didn’t play any of the ATP warm up tournaments on grass prior to this years tournament, and he went 1-1 in the Boodles challenger exhibition on grass. (losing to Alex Zverev, beating Richard Gasquet). After a disappointing Roland Garros result, Djokovic is showing signs of vulnerability, and the former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Kohlschreiber has to have hope of at least taking a set, and quite possibly making this a match. Kohlschreiber pushed Roger Federer to the brink of match point in their Halle match, eventually losing in three sets. I expect Djokovic to survive due to Kohlschreiber’s mental liabilities, but it won’t be easy.
(24)Leonardo Mayer vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Mayer, an Argentine, tends to prefer clay, and thusly he’s not a “Top 25” player on grass, as his seed would indicate. That said, he’s no slouch either as he comes off the quarterfinals in Nottingham after a pair of wins, and a third set tiebreak loss to Denis Istomin. Opposing him will be the young Australian Kokkinakis. Last year Nick Kyrgios was the one who made his breakthrough at Wimbledon, and now Kokkinakis will try to seize his moment. He’s still adjusting to grass but he’s a solid competitor with a good fast court game, meaning this match is about even odds in my mind. It’s a tough pick, but I’m going with the spirited Australian in 4 or 5 sets over Mayer.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Simone Bolelli
Last year they battled for five sets with Nishikori coming out on top at Wimbledon. The Japanese #1 comes off the semis in Halle, and hopefully he’s healthy and ready to make a push in London. Bolelli. a talented shotmaker is 5-2 on grass with a Nottingham quarterfinal on his resume in 2015. This one could well go five also, but Nishikori should be able break Bolelli down into errors and grab a win.
Stan the man beat Sousa at Wimbledon in straights last year, and now as a defending quarterfinalist and the French Open champion, he will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders to do well this year. Wawrinka slumped in a defeat to Kevin Anderson at Queens club, and could be vulnerable to a shocking upset, I don’t expect it to happen as Sousa went just 2-3 on grass in 2015, but he did beat Denis Istomin and Sam Groth, a pair of good grass courters, so the ability is there, though consistency is lacking for the streaky Portugese. Wawrinka is most likely to win in straights.
Dustin Brown vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A great grass court battle of unheralded players. The powerful serve and volleyer Brown qualified for Wimbledon with ease, and did the same in Stuttgart, as his game is at its peak on quick surfaces. Lu upset Halle finalist Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez to reach the quarterfinals in Nottingham, he also qualified at Queens and appears to be in good form with his baseline oriented weaponless game. Brown will provide more spark and excitement, but Lu should be the more reliable of the pair, and thus I have him advancing.
(13)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gilles Muller
My pick for the most notable seeded victim of round 1 is Tsonga. He played a close encounter with Muller last year on indoor hard, and he’s apparently not been healthy since the French Open semis. JW is fine on grass, but Muller is also excellent with his staunch serve and aggressive volley play. It should be 4 or 5 sets, but look for Muller to win some tiebreaks and get through this match in an upset.
Robin Haase vs. (Q)Alejandro Falla
A matchup with great grass court potential, Falla beat Haase last year in Halle on grass , and he qualified in Halle this year, and for Wimbledon, proving his forehand centric lefty game is still effective on the surface. Haase reached the semis in Den Bosch and can produce great varied tennis on grass, though his mental fortitude is continually lacking. This one could go either way, but I give Falla a slight edge to get through, perhaps in 5 sets.
You can’t beat this match if you like serve and volley tennis on grass, Lopez is 1-1 against Darcis, a fellow veteran with a similar style, though Flopez has more power, and flopez did get a win at Queens when they met on grass in 2012. Darcis famously beat Rafa here, and the otherwise journeyman Belgian simply loves the venue. That said is currently on a five match losing streak. Lopez has had a pedestrian grass court season, going 2-3, but he still has previous success at Wimbledon, and thus I give him the edge to advance.
(31)Jack Sock vs. Sam Groth
Sock will take on a player five years his senior, in the form of the big serving serve and volleyer Groth. The young gun American with a great forehand should have an advantage in this match given his well rounded game, but Groth will be able to apply constant pressure by holding his serve and if he can keep the error count down on his racquet he’ll have his shot in this one. The Australian reached the quarters in Stuttgart and won a challenger in title on grass this year. Sock elected not to play any of the ATP tournaments on grass as warm-up but presumably he’s healthy. I have Jack winning this but a Groth upset wouldn’t shock me.
The winner of Djokovic/Kohlschreiber will face Jarkko Nieminen or Lleyton Hewitt in round 2, as Djokovic could face two talented grass courters in consecutive matches. The former Wimbledon champion Hewitt is playing his final Wimbledon, and surely the legend wants to leave a final mark on the All-England Club center court against Djokovic. Hewitt has been in sharp decline and has been both mentally and physically struggling this year, but he’s still 5-0 against the speedy Nieminen, and thus I’m going with him to snap a losing streak and get to round 2, before bowing out against Novak, who is superior in every way at this point in their respective careers.
The draw does not get easier for Djokovic after Kohlschreiber and Hewitt/Nieminen, as a tough first week will conclude against former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic in all likelihood. Tomic, a Stuttgart quarterfinalist, will need to defeat JL Struff, who is in the midst of a losing streak, and then Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Hyeon Chung in round 2. Herbert, a big server. qualified for Wimbledon and should have the inside track against Chung, who has talent but is inexperienced on the surface. Look for Bernie to beat them both, and then fall to Djokovic as he has in the three previous times they have met, including the 2011 Wimbledon quarters.
14 seed Kevin Anderson, a finalist in Queens, should be able to cruise past young dirtballer Lucas Pouille. who has lost five straight, and likewise pass a stiffer test against Jerzy Janowicz, a former Wimbledon semifinalist in round 2. JJ reached the quarters in Halle but has failed to be consistent this year , I don’t see him dropping a set against journeyman Marsel Ilhan (5 straight losses), but Anderson with his strong serve+forehand combo is a much more challenging opponent, and given the 2-0 h2h, the South African should advance to round 3.
Thanasi Kokkinakis will have a great shot at the third round, and should make it, presuming he defeats Mayer. Marcel Granollers or Janko Tipsarevic, both struggling vets, will be his round 2 opponent, and it’s difficult to tell which Tipsy will show up for that match. Granollers isn’t great but at least he’s been able to play competitive tennis, and thus I have him as the one losing to Kokkinakis round 2. Anderson beat Kokkinakis last year, and given this is grass with the South Africans good form, look for Djokovic vs. Anderson in the round of 16, as Kev’s good form in Queens should carry him into the second week at Wimbledon.
The winner of Nishikori/Bolelli, presumably Kei unless we get carnage in the first quarter, will almost certainly face Santiago Giraldo in round 2, unless the Colombian is shocked by Joao Souza. who has almost never played on grass. Giraldo has struggled this season, and thus even with his power forehand game maxed, Nishikori is likely to advance to round 3 presuming he can get past the round 1 match.
In that third round, any of the four options could await. Denis Kudla, the-all court American wild card with a good grass game is here, and will have an upset chance against dirtballer Pablo Cuevas. Kudla is on a hot streak with a challenger final and a title on grass in consecutive weeks, he’s always been on the cusp of a breakthrough, so a third round run would be huge for his confidence. Teymuraz Gabashvili and Alex Zverev are also both unseeded players in good form, Gabashvili won a challenger recently, while Zverev beat Djokovic in an exhibition, and is 4-3 in ATP grass court tournaments this season. It’s a tough call between Zverev and Gabashvili, but I’m going with Zverev, and then Kudla over Zverev, before Nishikori beats Kudla in the third round, simply given the difference in talent and performance in their careers, and this season.
Marin Cilic and John Isner could be on a third round collision course, Cilic a Stuttgart semifinalist, appears to be finally getting back into top 10 form after coming back from injury, and he should blitz outgunned qualifier Hiroki Moriya in round 1. After that Cilic will also be a heavy favorite against Ricardas Berankis or Andreas Haider-Maurer. AHM much prefers clay, while Berankis qualified in Halle, I have Berankis winning the round 1 match, but losing routinely to Cilic.
Isner will face another Japanese qualifier, Go Soeda, in round 1, and the Queens semifinalist should also outgun his opponent. In round 2, Isner is likely to face Matt Ebden, a formerly top 100 Aussie who is a bit of a grass court specialist these days like Kudla, Ebden and Kudla have torn up the grass court challenger circuit in the UK this year (1 title, 1 final each) and Matty should roll past Blaz Rola, a former college tennis standout. Ebden could challenge Isner if the American can’t get off the blocks well, but in all likelihood it will be Cilic vs. Isner round 3.
Cilic dominates the h2h (4-0) against Isner, and with the exception of serve, is a better player than Isner in each of the important categories. It could be a battle, but Cilic should be the player who reaches the second week.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Wawrinka/Sousa will open with with Benjamin Becker or Victor Estrella. Becker is a good grass courter but hasn’t been healthy recently, while Estrella is on a five match losing streak. If Becker is healthy he should get through that round 1 match, but Wawrinka, barring a shocking collapse, has a safe path to the third round. Former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco could await there, he will open with Martin Klizan, who has power but not really a game built for grass. Verdasco should be able to defeat Klizan and then defeat Dominic Thiem or Dudi Sela in round 2. Sela is a career journeyman but the undersized Israeli is good on grass, while Thiem is adjusting to the surface and was a poor 1-3 this year. Thiem has more talent than Sela, but upset potential is there.
Verdasco vs. Wawrinka should be a great third round match, Verdasco actually leads the h2h 2-1 but they have never met on a fast surface, the match should be on Stan’s racquet regardless, as both players can play erratic or brilliant tennis depending on the day. Wawrinka’s backhand will collide with Verdasco’s forehand, and I see Wawrinka surviving that match to reach the round of 16.
The section below Wawrinka/Verdasco is wide open, the 16 seed is David Goffin, who reached the final in Den Bosch, his best ever result on grass. Goffin should cruise past dirtballer Horacio Zeballos and then defeat either Marinko Matosevic or British wild card Liam Broady in round 2. Matosevic has lost 11 matches in a row, Broady has lost 6 in a row in one of the most out of form grand slam matches you will witness. Broady should ride the home crowd to an upset win over the hapless Matosevic, before falling to Goffin. Nottingham semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis, who tends to peak on grass, even late in his career, with his aggressive quick strike game, will open with struggling Donald Young who is on a four match losing streak. Presuming Baghdatis is healthy and fit, he should win that one, and setup a meeting with either qualifier John Millman or Tommy Robredo. Millman has always been a talent but he’s been an underachiever , while Robredo has struggled this year and went 1-1 on grass in 2015. Millman upset Robredo in Sydney in 2013, and I have him doing so again, and upsetting the 19 seed. Baghdatis should beat Millman or Robredo for a spot in the third round.
Goffin-Baghdatis should be another great match, Baghdatis has a 3-0 h2h edge including two wins this year, and I give him the advantage if he’s healthy. Look for the veteran Baghdatis to advance to the second week given his previous semifinal result at Wimbledon years ago.
7 seed Milos Raonic will open with Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a dirtballer, Raonic has been slow returning from a foot injury, but he has a good draw to reach the second week. After DGT, Tommy Haas or Dusan Lajovic will be next. Haas has, as expected, been slow returning from injury as well, with a 1-2 record on grass, and though he should beat Lajovic, who is poor on grass, Raonic should prove to be too stiff of a test for the veteran German, Raonic beat Haas in 2013 on indoor hard in straights.
Look for Nick Kyrgios to also reach the third round, after his run to the quarterfinals last year. Kyrgios has been struggling under the pressure of being the top young gun in the game at the moment, but Diego Schwartzman, his round 1 opponent, is a dirtballer, and neither Juan Monaco, nor a struggling Florian Mayer should be able to oust him in round 2. Monaco is another South American relatively allergic to grass, while Mayer reached the quarters in Halle, but the veteran has otherwise struggled. Kyrgios-Mayer could be good but presuming NK is healthy he should be fine, he tends to peak for slams.
Raonic-Kyrgios could be a great match, and NK shouldn’t be counted out, especially with Raonic having the lingering effects of a foot injury, but his relentless serve should baffle Kyrgios just like it did at Wimbledon last year, where Kyrgios was in better form. The Queens quarterfinalist Raonic should reach the second week.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov opens with Federico Delbonis, and the winner of Lukas Lacko/Steve Johnson will follow that. Dimitrov is struggling, a winner of just two of his last six matches but he reached the semis here last year and should at least get to round 2. Johnson and Lacko are both inconsistent, but if on, could trouble Dimitrov, that said I have Grisha reaching round 3 and setting up a match against Richard Gasquet, the versatile French veteran. Gasquet opens with qualifier Luke Saville, who could trouble him given his previous junior success at Wimbledon (2011 boys champion). Gasquet should win that though and then beat either qualifier JP Smith or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, more likely De Schepper, to get that match against Dimitrov.
Gasquet is 4-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, that said the match should still be a battle if they meet in round 3. Gasquet should advance though given Dimitrov’s poor form, and thus reach the second week.
The former Wimbledon champion, and current Queens club champion Andy Murray once again has the hopes of a nation on him at Wimbledon. His form has been fantastic all season, across the surfaces, and he should blitz into the fourth round with relative ease. Mikhail Kukushkin, who is struggling, is an easy out in round 1, and then Haase/Falla would challenge him given this is grass, but it’s unlikely they will be able to maintain the level needed to oust the UK #1. In the third round, Andreas Seppi, the Halle finalist, should await. Seppi with his varied game should be able to dispatch Brydan Klein, a UK wild card, and the winner of Sergiy Stakhovsky/Borna Coric. Coric/Stako have split meetings this year, Stakhovsky is superior on grass and thus he’s the favorite with his serve and volley game. Stako could also give Seppi problems but he hasn’t been entirely healthy. Murray is 6-1 in his career vs Seppi.
Tsonga/Muller will face Denis Istomin or Albert Ramos in round 2, Istomin won the title in Nottingham and he’s a good grass courter so he could trouble either Muller or Tsonga, but given the fatigue factor I have Muller into the third round. Ivo Karlovic will face Elias Ymer, a qualifier, in round 1, Dr. Ivo should win that with his big serve, andthen Kyle Edmund, a wild card, or Alexandr Dolgopolov will await. Dolgopolov is in good form and has two previous h2h wins over Ivo, thus I have him advancing into the third round. The Ukrainian shotmaker defeated Rafael Nadal at Queens and reached the semis in Nottingham while Karlovic reached the semis in Halle, and upset Tomas Berdych.
Muller-Dolgopolov (or Tsonga/Karlovic/Istomin) here should make for an interesting third rounder, Dolgo, if on, is a top 20 player in terms of talent, but he tends to have lapses in his game, while Muller is steady but doesn’t have as much of a peak. Either serve as a dark horse, and I have Dolgopolov getting past the two servebots Karlovic and Muller to reach the second week.
Rafael Nadal,the champion in Stuttgart, will be looking to avoid an early exit against Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal tends to be boom or bust on grass these days, and Bellucci has power, but he’s not great on grass, thus Nadal should win that, and beat Brown or Lu in round 2. Brown could trouble Nadal, as he has beaten Rafa before on grass, but I don’t see that resulting repeating itself unless Dreddy can redline his game. In the third round, Viktor Troicki, the player he faced in the Stuttgart final, is his likely opponent. Troicki opens with Alex Nedovyesov, a qualifier, and then the winner of Radek Stepanek/Aljaz Bedene. Stepanek is a declined veteran, though formerly good on grass, and with Troicki in red hot form, he shouldn’t have issue reaching the third round.
Nadal is 5-0 in his career against Troicki, so barring a shot he should dispatch the Stuttgart finalist and Queens semifinalist to reach the second week.
After the Ferrer withdrawal, lucky loser Luca Vanni will be an underdog against British wild card James Ward, as Ward has a great chance to go as far as the fourth round on grass. At a minimum, Wardy should rise and defeat Vanni in front of home fans. After that Jiri Vesely, who opens with grass allergic Paolo Lorenzi awaits. Ward isn’t in great form, while Vesely isn’t great on grass, that said, Vesely has more talent so I see him reaching the third round.
30 seed Fabio Fognini opens with a struggling Tim Smyczek, Fognini is volatile and not great on grass, thus Smyczek will have his chance, but Fognini is more likely to be ousted by a hopefully healthy Vasek Pospisil in round 2. Pospisil opens with qualifier Vincent Millot, a French journeyman veteran. He’s showed signs of improvement though he’s struggled, from time to time this year and in a weak section, I have him upsetting Fognini to reach round 3.
It’s amazing that any of the players in this section would reach the fourth round, Pospisil-Vesely is my pick for the third round matchup, and that’s a coin flip to me. I have Pospisil advancing based upon the surface, but he hasn’t showed the form needed to reach the second week of a slam in quite some time, so perhaps this is Vesely’s time to rise.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 7 time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer will again serve it up at SW19, in what is perhaps his last realistic chance to win another Grand Slam and add to his record setting total. A finalist last year, the Swiss should roll past Damir Dzumhur, and either Nottingham finalist Sam Querrey, or qualifier Igor Sijsling to reach the third round. Sock/Groth should await him in round 3, and I don’t see them giving him too much trouble given this is grass. Sock/Groth faces the winner of Malek Jaziri/James Duckworth in round 2.
Lopez/Darcis will face Nikolosz Basilashvili, a qualifier, or dirtballer Facundo Bagnis round 2. Lopez presuming he gets past Darcis shouldn’t have a problem reaching the third round. Roberto Bautista Agut could await there for an all-Spanish battle, presuming RBA beats all courter Ruben Bemelmans, and then Benoit Paire or Mikhail Youzhny. Paire hates grass, while Youzhny is nearing retirement and in poor form. I actually have RBA losing to Bemelmans in an upset, but I may be too bullish on that. The Belgian qualified for Nottingham while RBA has lost three straight. Bemelmans should also defeat Paire or Youzhny, and I have Bemelmans over Youzhny in my bracket.
Given this is grass, Lopez should reach the second week and defeat Bemelmans or another opponent, even though his season has been poor thus far.
Tomas Berdych will open with Jeremy Chardy, who he has a 3-0 h2h advantage against. Berdych reached the quarters in Halle and the former Wimbledon finalist should be able to get past that one. Wild card Nicolas Mahut, the Den Bosch champion, is a dangerous grass court serve and volleyer in round 2, presuming he rolls past Filip Krajinovic, but Berdych should have too much power for Mahut, and also one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Pablo Andujar/Ernests Gulbis/Lukas Rosol in round 3. Gulbis has been awful this year, and Rosol can be a powerful ball basher on grass, thus look for Rosol to beat Gulbis, and also Garcia-Lopez given this is grass to reach round 3. GGL reached the quarters in Queens and beat Andujar there.
Rosol is to some extent a poor man’s Berdych, given their similar styles, and the fact Berdych does everything better than Rosol, Tomas should reach the round of 16 in the battle of Davis Cup teammates. He has a 2-0 h2h edge on hard courts.
12 seed Gilles Simon opens with Nicolas Almagro, with the winner of qualifier Yuichi Sugita/Blaz Kavcic to follow. The Queens semifinalist and Nottingham quarterfinalist Simon, who has been steady this year, should advance through those matches with ease to reach round 3. Sugita is good on grass and should beat Kavcic.
18 seed Gael Monfils opens with dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then Adrian Mannarino or Michael Berrer in round 2. Berrer qualified, while Mannarino, a Den Bosch quarterfinalist, is a good all-courter. Mannarino should give Monfils a test, but the Stuttgart semifinalist and Halle quarterfinalist should come through and reach round 3 to setup an all-French battle with Simon.
Simon-Monfils has previously given us some of the most exciting, yet boring tennis known to man, that said, Simon dominates the h2h 5-1, and he won a h2h meeting this year in Marseille, given his good form, Gilles is the favorite for the round of 16.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Simone Bolelli, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexandr Dolgopolov/Gilles Muller, Ruben Bemelmans
Bolelli would need to defeat Nishikori, but if he pulls off that feat the Italian shotmaker will be the favorite in every possible match going into the round of 16, and there he would have a chance against Cilic/Isner. Baghdatis should reach the round of 16, and I wouldn’t put it past him to upset Wawrinka/Verdasco there.
Dolgopolov or Muller are reaching week 2 in my bracket, I don’t see them getting past Murray though ,while Bemelmans could reach the second week if Lopez comes up short. Upsetting RBA would be a big move for him.
Djokovic d. Anderson
Cilic d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Baghdatis
Raonic d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Pospisil
Murray d. Dolgopolov
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Lopez
Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has a Wimbledon win, Cilic and Nishikori are rivals and Kei has a 5-3 edge in that one, that said this is grass and I feel Cilic has a small advantage now that he’s coming into form, just like his upset win at the US Open in the 2014 final.
Wawrinka is 5-0 against Baghdatis and has a grass court win, making me feel more at ease picking him. Raonic just beat Gasquet at Queens and leads the h2h 3-1 in that one, he should improve with each match he plays and serve his way into the quarters.
Presuming Nadal reaches the round of 16, his matchup there should be easy and the quarters is close a lock for Rafa. Murray is 3-0 against Dolgo and superior on grass, so he also should accelerate into the quarters. Murray beat Muller at Queens this year.
Simon leads the h2h 6-4 against Berdych but Berdych won their meeting this year, and has been solid this year, I feel he will overpower the Frenchman to reach the quarters. Fed is 11-0 against Lopez and I don’t see him losing before the quarters.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Raonic d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Nadal
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic beat Cilic at Wimbledon last year in 5 sets, and he leads the h2h 12-0 in that matchup, Wawrinka is 4-0 against Raonic, but their matchups have been relatively close, and this is grass, a surface I feel swings the advantage to Raonic.
Murray shocked Nadal in Madrid this year and though Rafa is 3-0 at Wimbledon in the h2h, Murray is in some of the best form of his career right now, while Rafa is not, and with that being the case, I have Murray advancing in a battle. Federer has twice beaten Berdych this year, and tends to dominate that matchup on the mental side. Federer has a loss to Berdych at Wimby but leads the grass h2h 2-1 and I see the world #2 living up to his ranking and getting through.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic is 5-0 against Raonic, it’s not out of the equation that he could be tripped up, but Djokovic rolled at their AO meeting this year, and Raonic has yet to prove he can rise up in slams and conjure up a level of play needed to beat the world #1.
Murray hasn’t beaten Federer since back surgery, but he famously beat him in the 2012 Wimbledon final and as mentioned, his form is at its peak at the moment. I’d be surprised if Murray can’t will himself into the final this year, given how solid he’s been all season, it’d be a deserved result for him to get past Fed.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic
I wouldn’t have predicted this result until Djokovic lost in the French Open final to Wawrinka. That result was a mental blow to him and I feel that result will reverberate through the rest of his 2015 season. He struggled under the pressure there, and he has show signs the loss is affecting him. He’s a more talented and skillful player than Murray, but Murray has will and heart on his side at the moment, he appears at ease with his game, and himself, and if there is any surface he can beat Novak on, it’s grass, as their previous Wimbledon final showed.
Novak hasn’t lost to Murray since his back surgery, but Murray appears back, and I was impressed by AM pushing Novak to five sets on clay at the French. Rather than pressure, look for Murray to feed off the home crowd and home cooking and take home a third grand slam title and second Wimbledon title.
