2017 Wimbledon Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The peak of summer has arrived, and with it Wimbledon in London will begin again on Monday. Here is your complete preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
July 3-16, 2017
London, Great Britain
Surface: Grass
Prize Money: £14,840,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Roger Federer (4)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Stan Wawrinka (3)
6: Milos Raonic (6)
7: Marin Cilic (8)
8: Dominic Thiem (9)
The biggest player missing is David Goffin, dirtballers Pablo Carreno Busta and Pablo Cuevas are also out, as is Britain’s Daniel Evans, who failed a drug test.
First round matches to watch:
Denis Shapovalov vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Talented young Canadian Shapovalov makes his slam debut with a winnable but difficult contest against the big hitter Janowicz. The Polish player is a former Wimbledon semifinalist, but his lack of work ethic has crushed his ATP level talents and he’s still languishing outside of the top 150. Janowicz has enough game to win this, but don’t count Shapovalov out, he’s a hard worker and plays well beyond his years.
(31)Fernando Verdasco vs. Kevin Anderson
Both Verdasco and Anderson have reached the second week at Wimbledon before and are solid on grass. These veterans could use a bit of form though and we could be in for a long and shaky contest. Verdasco has more upside, but Anderson’s serve is a steady weapon on fast surfaces, and he should secure tiebreaks to win.
(5)Stan Wawrinka vs. Daniil Medvedev
Wawrinka has made two Wimbledon quarterfinals, and some are calling him a dark horse this year, but his form has been terrible on grass the past couple of seasons, and it seems his long backswing really disadvantages him on the grass. Medvedev has been in red hot form with a 9-3 record on the grass this season. The young Russian is due for a breakthrough win, and I’ll back him to get it on a fast surface that suits his game. Look for Wawrinka to be the first major Wimbledon casualty.
(7)Marin Cilic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Both players have reached the quarters at Wimbledon, but Cilic has done it three years in a row and he’s in better form, with a legitimate shot to be the dark horse contender for the final, and possibly the title. He’ll need to go against the h2h in this matchup though, as Kohli has won 6 out of 9 meetings in this matchup. Cilic’s form is a bit better though, and the Croatian should find his way.
(27)Mischa Zverev vs. Bernard Tomic
Despite struggling this season, the former quarterfinalist Tomic just beat Zverev on grass rather easily, and Wimbledon is his best slam, as it suits his funky game. Zverev is a late bloomer with a lethal serve and volley game when he’s clicking though and this could turn into a very long match. Tomic is the favorite, but I’ll go with Zverev to keep his mettle and win a likely five setter, Tomic’s inconsistency is a great worry.
(8)Dominic Thiem vs. Vasek Pospisil
Thiem is just 1-2 on grass this year and has never played well at Wimbledon. Pospisil is 9-3 and once reached the quarters at SW19, the Canadian has fallen in the rankings, but his serve is still dangerous, and given how awful Thiem’s game has looked in his two grass court outings, I’ll go with Pospisil in the upset, in what should be a big boost to his confidence. Pospisil has the talent to win this.
(19)Feliciano Lopez vs. Adrian Mannarino
A three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist, the 35 year old Lopez is in some of the best form his career on grass with a 9-1 record that includes a final and a title at Queen’s club. Mannarino just reached the final in Antalya on grass and also has talent on this fast surface, but fatigue could play a factor in his performance. Look for the veteran Lopez to get this win, and take his serve and volley game deeper into the tournament, where he will threaten some of the top players.
(29)Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Both players are comeback kids, having overcome injuries to return to the ATP tour. Kokkinakis is still easing his way back but his game is suited for fast surfaces, Del Potro has not had grass court prep but he’s look competitive in his return to the game, and of course the former semifinalist has lethal power on grass. Del Potro is a worthy favorite, but we’ll see if this match turns into a larger battle.
Murray’s Quarter:
The defending and two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray has struggled at the ATP level this season but he rose up to reach the semis on clay at the French Open, and on a better surface for his game he should presumably be able to survive the early rounds and get himself into form. He’ll start with lucky loser Alexander Bublik, with Dustin Brown/Joao Sousa to follow, Brown can be dangerous but he’s far from consistent. I have Jiri Vesely as Murray’s opponent in round 3, Vesely will face qualifier Illya Marchenko, with Dmitry Tursunov/Fabio Fognini to follow, it’s a weak section on grass Vesely likely has a slight edge before falling to Murray.
Nick Kyrgios has been unfit, but his game is great for grass. He’ll have to get past the serve and volleyer Pierre-Hugues Herbert, and if he does that he should be favored against Benoit Paire/Rogerio Dutra Silva in round 2. I have Lucas Pouille defeating Malek Jaziri and Shapovalov/Janowicz, before falling to Kyrgios in the third round. Pouille has been improving on grass as of late.
I have Kevin Anderson defeating Verdasco, then the recently in-form Andreas Seppi (who opens with Norbert Gombos), Anderson should reach the second week, and I have him doing so against Tommy Haas. After Tomic, Haas will face Wawrinka/Medvedev, and despite his age he remains a threat at Wimbledon.
Despite two career Wimbledon semifinal appearances, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled lately and isn’t a threat this tournament. He’ll open with Cam Norrie, Simone Bolelli or Rendy Lu will follow, and Sam Querrey is his likely third round opponent. Querrey has a game suited for grass, he should defeat Thomas Fabbiano and Carlos Berlocq/Nikoloz Basilashvili to reach the third round. Neither player is in great form, but Tsonga has a higher ceiling so I’ll back him for round 4.
Nadal’s Quarter:
The two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal has struggled on grass in recent years, but his form has come back in a big way this season and he’s worth backing early on against John Millman, Donald Young/Denis Istomin and Karen Khachanov in the third round. Khachanov has shown great form on grass and is rising rapidly in the rankings, the young Russian should defeat his countryman Andrey Kuznetsov, plus Andrew Whittington/Thiago Monteiro before falling to Rafa.
Big servers Ivo Karlovic and Gilles Muller look set for a third round clash, Karlovic opens with Aljaz Bedene, Muller faces Marton Fucsovics, then big hitter Lukas Rosol or Henri Laaksonen. Karlovic faces Damir Dzhumur/Renzo Olivo in round 2, with Muller in great form on grass and having a solid season, he’s a favorite to reach the second week.
After Kohlschreiber, I have Marin Cilic catching fire and defeating Viktor Troicki/Florian Mayer, and Steve Johnson to reach the second week. Johnson opens with dirtballer Nicolas Kicker, then Radu Albot or Facundo Bagnis. Cilic should have too much power for the forehand centric Johnson.
Both Roberto Bautista Agut and Kei Nishikori have made the second week at Wimbledon before, and they look set for a third round clash. RBA opens with Andreas Haider-Maurer, then Marius Copil or Peter Gojowczyk, Nishikori will look to overcome a hip injury against Marco Cecchinato, and then Sergiy Stakhovsky/Julien Benneteau. With fitness a concern for Kei and his somewhat pedestrian play this year, I have RBA reaching the fourth round.
Federer’s Quarter:
A seven-time champion at Wimbledon, Roger Federer won the title in Halle and again finds himself the favorite at his favorite Grand Slam. The legend will begin his journey against erratic shotmaker Alexandr Dolgopolov, then Dusan Lajovic/Stefanos Tsitsipas, I have him facing Mischa Zverev round 3, but Tomic is also an option. Taro Daniel/Mikhail Kukushkin are the other players in this section, I’d be surprised if Federer dropped a set through three matches.
A former Wimbledon semifinalist, Grigor Dimitrov should defeat Diego Schwartzman, James Ward/Marcos Baghdatis, and John Isner to reach week 2. Dimitrov has been up and down this year, but right now seems closer to up than down, and Baghdatis is injured. Isner opens with Taylor Fritz, with Dudi Sela/Marcel Granollers to follow, he’s good enough to win two rounds with his serve but I don’t trust his form this season.
Defending finalist Milos Raonic has been flat in his return from injury, he should serve and volley past J.L. Struff, then defeat Nicolas Mahut/Mikhail Youzhny, and Jordan Thompson in this week section, but he’s another name that is not in good form to challenge for the title. The Aussie Thompson stunned Murray at Queen’s, he faces Albert Ramos, who prefers clay, then Andrey Rublev or Stefano Travaglia.
Young gun Alexander Zverev rebounded from disappointment at Roland Garros to go 6-2 on grass, he should find form this slam against Evgeny Donskoy and Robin Haase/Frances Tiafoe to reach round 3. Jack Sock opens with Christian Garin, Thomaz Bellucci or Sebastian Ofner will follow, and with Sock not playing his best, Zverev should reach round 4.
Djokovic’s Quarter:
Three-time Wimbledon Champion Novak Djokovic just won in Eastbourne on grass and heads into his match with Martin Klizan holding positive momentum. Djokovic should ease past Ernesto Escobedo/Adam Pavlasek in round 2, and then defeat Del Potro in the third round. After Kokkinakis I have Del Potro beating Ernests Gulbis/Victor Estrella in round 2, before succumbing to Djokovic.
Feliciano Lopez will face Antalya Champ Yuichi Sugita or Brydan Klein, presuming Gael Monfils knee is alright he should defeat big hitter Daniel Brands, then Kyle Edmund/Alex Ward in round 2. I have Lopez over Monfils in the third round to reach week 2.
I have Vasek Pospisil making a run to round 4, after Thiem, a struggling Gilles Simon or Nicolas Jarry will be up in round 2, one of Janko Tipsarevic/Jared Donaldson or Horacio Zeballos/Paolo Lorenzi will be up in round 3. Tipsarevic could make the the third round as Donaldson and neither Zeballos/Lorenzi are good on grass, this is a very weak section.
Richard Gasquet is in great form, Gasquet should thump a struggling David Ferrer, Steve Darcis/Ricardas Berankis, and Tomas Berdych. The former Wimbledon semifinalist Gasquet looks to be a real threat to go deep into the tournament. Berdych faces Jeremy Chardy and then Borna Coric or Ryan Harrison, his power should give him an edge.
Dark Horses (one for each section): Kevin Anderson, Gilles Muller, Jordan Thompson, and Vasek Pospisil
Anderson, Muller, and Pospisil have dangerous serves, while Thompson is skilled enough on grass that they all have a chance to rise up and make a big impact despite their non-elite ranking.
Predictions
Round of 16 Murray d. Kyrgios
Anderson d. Tsonga
Nadal d. Muller
Cilic d. Bautista Agut
Zverev d. Raonic
Federer d. Dimitrov
Gasquet d. Pospisil
Djokovic d. Lopez
I have Anderson beating Tsonga based on form, Murray, Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic should be good enough to reach the last 8. Cilic and Zverev should be favorites on form, while Gasquet benefits from a favorable draw.
Quarters Murray d. Anderson
Cilic d. Nadal
Federer d. Zverev
Djokovic d. Gasquet
On grass Nadal remains at a disadvantage, and I’ll go with Cilic in an upset, the other big three should be somewhat safe as Federer just beat Zverev in Halle rather easily in the final.
Semis Murray d. Cilic
Federer d. Djokovic
The defending champion against the best grass court player of all-time is a fitting final, Federer’s form should see him capture a victory.
2016 Wimbledon Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
It’s been a quick transition from clay to grass for the ATP’s best, and now it’s time for Wimbledon 2016. The spotlight has been on London for political reasons as of late, and now the sporting world will focus in on one of the best sporting events in the world. Here is a preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
London, Great Britain
June 27-July 10, 2016
Prize Money: £13,163,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (5)
5: Kei Nishikori (6)
6: Milos Raonic (7)
7: Richard Gasquet (10)
8: Dominic Thiem (8)
Former champion Rafael Nadal is the only notable player absent from Wimbledon this year.
First round matchups to watch:
Kyle Edmund vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players have reached quarterfinals on grass this year, Edmund is the British #2 and would love a home win, while Mannarino is a steady veteran who excels on quick surfaces. Edmund could win this, but I have Mannarino finding a way to advance.
(27)Jack Sock vs. Ernests Gulbis
Neither Sock nor Gulbis had much tune up prior to Wimbledon, Gulbis has found form as of late and could pull off a surprise upset, but Sock’s forehand is likely too lethal on this fast surface.
The serve and volleyer Ivo Karlovic should have an edge to advance over his countryman Borna Coric, although he’s had a poor season overall. Karlovic won three matches on grass prior to Wimbledon, and although I see Coric taking a set, he doesn’t have the grass court experience yet to prevail.
(29)Pablo Cuevas vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
Cuevas was an unlikely finalist in Nottingham, and that sets him up to potentially win a round or more at Wimbledon. Kuznetsov is an intriguing new talent who has risen this year in the rankings, and his power tennis seems suited for fast surfaces. Fatigue may play a factor for Cuevas, but I tip him to advance in this one given his recent inspired play.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Sam Groth
Groth notched five wins on grass in recent weeks, although none of them were remarkable in terms of his opponents. The big server is still one of the toughest opponents to face on this surface however, and though he’s had a down season, if he serves well, he could be lethal against Nishikori. The Japanese #1 withdrew from Halle, and had little warm-up prior to Wimbledon, but he’s a great returner and I have to think he’ll still win this match given the huge gap in talent.
Mayer upset Thiem in Halle, where the oft-injured German veteran took home the title. Thiem is a better player and he’s far superior this season, he also took home the title in Stuttgart, showing his own grass court prowess. Mayer should test the young Austrian, but I see him running out of gas after the first three sets.
(14)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Jordan Thompson
The Queens quarterfinalist RBA could be tested by the Australian Thompson who has a knack for playing well on grass. This is a potential upset special if Thompson rises up and plays his best tennis, but I have Bautista Agut prevailing.
(19)Bernard Tomic vs. Fernando Verdasco
Tomic is 4-1 against Verdasco in the h2h and just defeated him at the Queens Club tournament in three sets. Verdasco has a history of success at Wimbledon, as does Tomic, and this should be a high quality contest. Tomic’s recent form is superior and he plays his best on grass, although his focus and passion continues to be in question. Verdasco could edge this match, but I favor Tomic to prevail and get one of his best wins of the season.
Wawrinka fell meekly to Verdasco at Queen’s, although his grass court record over his career has been above average. He should cruise past the young American Fritz, but this is a great test for the likely future ATP star, and we’ll see if this match develops into something less routine for the Swiss champion.
(18)John Isner vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis has never defeated Isner (0-6) but his recent play on grass has outperformed the American #1, as he posted a pair of quarterfinals in Halle and Nottingham. Isner is the favorite, but I’m going with Baghdatis in an upset, as the wily veteran should be more consistent over the course of a likely five sets.
(15)Nick Kyrgios vs. Radek Stepanek
Kyrgios is fantastic on grass and his attacking game is well suited to make a deep run yet again at Wimbledon. Stepanek was a quarterfinalist in Stuttgart, and his serve and volley style also sets up well for Wimbledon. He could test the young Australian, but that test should improve his performance and boost his chances of having a good tournament.
Australian and French Open champion Novak Djokovic will continue his quest for a first ever Grand Slam, along with a third consecutive, and fourth overall Wimbledon title. A winner of seven straight matches, Djokovic should ease past Britain’s James Ward, a loser of three straight on grass, in round 1, and then defeat the Edmund/Mannarino winner in round 2. Sam Querrey should await round 3, as the Den Bosch semifinalist opens with a struggling Lukas Rosol, with Thomaz Bellucci or qualifier Ruben Bemelmans to follow. Rosol is capable on grass, but Querrey is in better form, and neither Bemelmans or Bellucci or in great form. All in all expect Djokovic to ease his way into the second week.
Stuttgart finalist Philipp Kohlschreiber looks set to reach the second week as well. Kohlschreiber opens with a struggling Pierre-Hugues Herbert with either Damir Dzumhur or Denis Kudla to follow. Kudla’s pure ball striking should fall short against Kohlschreiber’s crafty play, and then either David Ferrer or Nicolas Mahut await in round 3. A struggling Ferrer opens with Den Bosch quarterfinalist Dudi Sela, the Israeli veteran may wear him out enough to allow Mahut to pull off a tremendous upset, as the Den Bosch champion is a great serve and volleyer who is well suited to grass. Kohlschreiber over Mahut is my pick.
David Goffin looks set to reach the second week, the Belgian opens with a struggling Alexander Ward, with either Teymuraz Gabashvili or qualifier Edouard Roger-Vasselin to follow. After that it should be Kevin Anderson for the Belgian #1. Anderson opens with a struggling Denis Istomin, with either Nicolas Almagro or Rogerio Dutra Silva to follow. Anderson played well at Wimbledon last year, but he’s struggled this season, and Goffin should be superior.
Milos Raonic should setup a meeting with Sock in the third round, presuming Sock defeats Gulbis, and Diego Schwartzman/Robin Haase, while Raonic defeats Pablo Carreno Busta and Andreas Seppi/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Seppi has had a great grass court season and should defeat GGL, but Raonic was a finalist in Queen’s and his power serve game is well suited for grass. Haase should get the better of Schwartzman, and then Sock should advance before falling to Raonic in round 3.
Federer’s Quarter
The holder of seven Wimbledon titles enters this year’s tournament without a single ATP title to his name. Roger Federer had an injured back that forced him to pull out of Paris, but he should still ease past Guido Pella and then Ricardas Berankis or Marcus Willis in round 2. Federer should face his first test against Alexandr Dolgopolov. The streaky Ukrainian isn’t as accomplished on grass as he is on other surfaces but he should still get the better of Evgeny Donskoy and Dan Evans or J.L. Struff. Given the surface, Federer should at least reach the second week before things get tougher for him.
If Frenchmen Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils are to meet in round 3 they will have to navigate a tough path. Monfils missed Paris and opens with Jeremy Chardy, his countryman. Simon was poor in pre-Wimbledon grass court action and opens with the veteran Janko Tipsarevic, who is still on the injury recovery trail. I have the Nottingham champion Steve Johnson rising up and defeating Monfils, but I have Simon slipping past a struggling Grigor Dimitrov in round 2. Dimitrov opens with qualifier Bjorn Fratangelo, while Johnson faces Malek Jaziri. Simon over Johnson is my pick in the third round.
Marin Cilic and Ivo Karlovic, both Croatians, should be opposite each other in the third round. Cilic, a semifinalist at Queen’s Club, opens with Brian Baker, a loser of four straight matches, with the serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky likely to follow, after Stakhovsky defeats Yoshihito Nishioka. Stakhovsky could challenge Cilic, but he’s a good grass court player, and far better overall than the Ukrainian. Karlovic will face qualifier Lukas Lacko or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi after he does battle with Borna Coric. Cilic is 2-1 in the h2h against Karlovic, and I have him advancing into week 2.
Kei Nishikori has a challenging draw, after Groth, and either Julien Benneteau or Illya Marchenko, Gilles Muller, a finalist in Den Bosch, is his likely opponent. Both Benneteau and Marchenko are struggling and unlikely to pose much of a threat to Nishikori. Muller, a great grass court serve and volleyer, opens with Santiago Giraldo, with Cuevas/Kuznetsov to follow. Nishikori has never lost to Muller, and although he’s at risk for an upset, I’m going with Kei to prevail.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka could be in trouble, after Fritz, he’ll face off with Juan Martin Del Potro, a dangerous dark horse in the draw. Del Potro’s power tennis could knock Wawrinka back, but I have Wawrinka finding a a way to prevail and setting up a third round match against qualifier Marius Copil, who is sharp on grass and opens with Lucas Pouille, who is poor on grass. Donald Young should defeat Leonardo Mayer before falling to Copil in round 2, and then I have Wawrinka reaching week 2.
The Tomic/Verdasco winner looks well suited to advance into round 3. The winner is likely to get qualifier Radu Albot, or Gastao Elias in round 2, with Roberto Bautista Agut likely to follow in round 3, after the Spaniard defeats Jordan Thompson and Mikhail Kukushkin/Martin Klizan. Klizan is a good player but he’s been struggling as of late. Tomic should make the second week, but I’m going with Bautista Agut because I don’t trust the Australian to consistently play well.
Tomas Berdych will be in danger against the young Alexander Zverev in the third round, presuming Zverev defeats veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu and the veteran Mikhail Youzhny (who opens with Horacio Zeballos). PHM has two recent wins over Zverev, but the Halle finalist looks ready to rise, Youzhny is also a tough opponent but hasn’t shown his previous level of form in years now. Berdych opens with Ivan Dodig, with Benjamin Becker or Facundo Bagnis to follow. He lost his only Wimbledon warm-up match, and I have Zverev knocking him off in the third round.
Thiem or Mayer have Jiri Vesely or qualifier Igor Sijsling up in round 2, with Joao Sousa or Luke Saville/Dennis Novikov likely in round 3, unless Dmitry Tursunov upsets Sousa. Saville is a bit of a grass court specialist and I have him winning over Sousa in round 2, before falling to Thiem.
Murray’s Quarter
The former Wimbledon Champion and runner-up in the last two Grand Slams, Andy Murray, opens with wild card Liam Broady, with either Benoit Paire or John Millman likely in round 3, and Yen-Hsun Lu or Alex Kudryavtsev up in round 2. Lu has been in incredible form on the challenger tour on grass, but Murray should still demolish him, and Paire/Millman. Paire opens with qualifier Franko Skugor, while Millman has dirtballer Albert Montanes. With Paire in poor form, I have Millman has a third round surprise.
The first real test for Murray should be against the winner of Nick Kyrgios/Feliciano Lopez in the third round, Kyrgios has either Dustin Brown or Dusan Lajovic in round 2 after facing Stepanek, while Lopez opens with Rajeev Ram with Fabio Fognini or Federico Delbonis to follow. Lopez is a dangerous serve and volleyer, and Brown could upset Kyrgios, but Kyrgios is the best player in this section and should prevail.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga wasn’t fit in Paris, but he’s a good grass court player, and he should be in better shape for Wimbledon. Inigo Cervantes is an easy opening opponent, with Taro Daniel or Juan Monaco to follow. Monaco hasn’t been in great form as of late, and thus I have Tsonga in round 3, opposite Marcos Baghdatis. After Isner, a qualifier is up in round 2, either Albano Olivetti, or Matthew Barton. I have Baghdatis upsetting Tsonga, after a win over Barton, he’s one of my dark horse picks for the tournament, and Tsonga isn’t likely to be 100%.
Richard Gasquet has been playing great in recent months, Gasquet opens with Aljaz Bedene, with Marcel Granollers or Victor Estrella to follow, more than likely Granollers. Viktor Troicki opens with qualifier Tristan Lamasine, with Vasek Pospisil or Albert Ramos next, Pospisil is a tough out on grass, but Troicki should fall to Gasquet in round 3.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Nicolas Mahut, Gilles Muller, Juan Martin Del Potro and Marcos Baghdatis
Mahut has to get past Ferrer, and although Philipp Kohlschreiber stands in his way, he could go as far as the second week. Muller should get as far as round 3, and Nishikori is one of the more beatable top seeds, if he wins that match he’ll be into the second week with a shot at the quarterfinals.
Del Potro could shock Wawrinka and make a big push for the second week and beyond, although he’s still unlikely to be at the level needed to do that. Baghdatis could fall in round 1 to Isner, but if he advances, he’s set to make the second week as a veteran presence in the draw.
Round of 16 Djokovic d. Kohlschreiber
Raonic d. Goffin
Federer d. Simon
Nishikori d. Cilic
Thiem d. Zverev
Wawrinka d. Bautista Agut
Gasquet d. Baghdatis
Murray d. Kyrgios
Djokovic beat Kohli at Wimbledon last year, Raonic has a win this year over Goffin, Federer dominates Simon and beat him at Wimbledon last year, Nishikori has a clear h2h edge over Cilic, Thiem is 3-0 over Zverev, Wawrinka is a better player than RBA, Gasquet has a win over Baghdatis this year and has been in great form, and Murray should find a way over Kyrgios given his 4-0 h2h.
Quarters Djokovic d. Raonic
Nishikori d. Federer
Thiem d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Gasquet
Murray has won five straight against Gasquet, I have Thiem upsetting Wawrinka on grass to even the h2h, Federer’s level has declined thus I have Nishikori in an upset win, and Djokovic is 7-0 against Raonic.
Semis Djokovic d. Nishikori
Murray d. Thiem
Djokovic and Murray are a cut above anyone else in the draw, and on grass they appear set for a final battle.
Final Djokovic d. Murray
Murray won Queen’s in advance of Wimbledon, and he’s been playing some remarkable tennis as of late, thus he’ll have a real shot against Djokovic, but the world #1 has been the best player in the world all season and that shouldn’t change on grass.
The most famed slam of them all is here, as the best men’s and women’s tennis players in the world will take to the crisp grass courts of Wimbledon in a show of skills, as they begin the quest for points and glory at SW19. Now that the draw is out, here is a preview, with predictions.
Wimbledon 2015 Preview
Wimbledon
Grand Slam
London, England
June 29-July 12, 2015
Prize Money: 26,750,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Milos Raonic (8)
8: David Ferrer (7)*
Even with the more complex Wimbledon seeding system, the top 8 seeds, are the top 8 players in the world presently, with Raonic and Ferrer switching spots.
All of the top names are here except for David Ferrer, who withdrew with an elbow injury after the draw was made.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Novak Djokovic will have to face the toughest round 1 opponent he’s faced at a Grand Slam in years, as the unseeded Kohlschreiber is a dark horse on grass in his own right, and even though he is 1-6 in the h2h, he’ll surely give this match his best effort. Djokovic, the defending, and two time, Wimbledon champion, didn’t play any of the ATP warm up tournaments on grass prior to this years tournament, and he went 1-1 in the Boodles challenger exhibition on grass. (losing to Alex Zverev, beating Richard Gasquet). After a disappointing Roland Garros result, Djokovic is showing signs of vulnerability, and the former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Kohlschreiber has to have hope of at least taking a set, and quite possibly making this a match. Kohlschreiber pushed Roger Federer to the brink of match point in their Halle match, eventually losing in three sets. I expect Djokovic to survive due to Kohlschreiber’s mental liabilities, but it won’t be easy.
(24)Leonardo Mayer vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Mayer, an Argentine, tends to prefer clay, and thusly he’s not a “Top 25” player on grass, as his seed would indicate. That said, he’s no slouch either as he comes off the quarterfinals in Nottingham after a pair of wins, and a third set tiebreak loss to Denis Istomin. Opposing him will be the young Australian Kokkinakis. Last year Nick Kyrgios was the one who made his breakthrough at Wimbledon, and now Kokkinakis will try to seize his moment. He’s still adjusting to grass but he’s a solid competitor with a good fast court game, meaning this match is about even odds in my mind. It’s a tough pick, but I’m going with the spirited Australian in 4 or 5 sets over Mayer.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Simone Bolelli
Last year they battled for five sets with Nishikori coming out on top at Wimbledon. The Japanese #1 comes off the semis in Halle, and hopefully he’s healthy and ready to make a push in London. Bolelli. a talented shotmaker is 5-2 on grass with a Nottingham quarterfinal on his resume in 2015. This one could well go five also, but Nishikori should be able break Bolelli down into errors and grab a win.
Stan the man beat Sousa at Wimbledon in straights last year, and now as a defending quarterfinalist and the French Open champion, he will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders to do well this year. Wawrinka slumped in a defeat to Kevin Anderson at Queens club, and could be vulnerable to a shocking upset, I don’t expect it to happen as Sousa went just 2-3 on grass in 2015, but he did beat Denis Istomin and Sam Groth, a pair of good grass courters, so the ability is there, though consistency is lacking for the streaky Portugese. Wawrinka is most likely to win in straights.
Dustin Brown vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
A great grass court battle of unheralded players. The powerful serve and volleyer Brown qualified for Wimbledon with ease, and did the same in Stuttgart, as his game is at its peak on quick surfaces. Lu upset Halle finalist Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez to reach the quarterfinals in Nottingham, he also qualified at Queens and appears to be in good form with his baseline oriented weaponless game. Brown will provide more spark and excitement, but Lu should be the more reliable of the pair, and thus I have him advancing.
(13)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gilles Muller
My pick for the most notable seeded victim of round 1 is Tsonga. He played a close encounter with Muller last year on indoor hard, and he’s apparently not been healthy since the French Open semis. JW is fine on grass, but Muller is also excellent with his staunch serve and aggressive volley play. It should be 4 or 5 sets, but look for Muller to win some tiebreaks and get through this match in an upset.
Robin Haase vs. (Q)Alejandro Falla
A matchup with great grass court potential, Falla beat Haase last year in Halle on grass , and he qualified in Halle this year, and for Wimbledon, proving his forehand centric lefty game is still effective on the surface. Haase reached the semis in Den Bosch and can produce great varied tennis on grass, though his mental fortitude is continually lacking. This one could go either way, but I give Falla a slight edge to get through, perhaps in 5 sets.
You can’t beat this match if you like serve and volley tennis on grass, Lopez is 1-1 against Darcis, a fellow veteran with a similar style, though Flopez has more power, and flopez did get a win at Queens when they met on grass in 2012. Darcis famously beat Rafa here, and the otherwise journeyman Belgian simply loves the venue. That said is currently on a five match losing streak. Lopez has had a pedestrian grass court season, going 2-3, but he still has previous success at Wimbledon, and thus I give him the edge to advance.
(31)Jack Sock vs. Sam Groth
Sock will take on a player five years his senior, in the form of the big serving serve and volleyer Groth. The young gun American with a great forehand should have an advantage in this match given his well rounded game, but Groth will be able to apply constant pressure by holding his serve and if he can keep the error count down on his racquet he’ll have his shot in this one. The Australian reached the quarters in Stuttgart and won a challenger in title on grass this year. Sock elected not to play any of the ATP tournaments on grass as warm-up but presumably he’s healthy. I have Jack winning this but a Groth upset wouldn’t shock me.
The winner of Djokovic/Kohlschreiber will face Jarkko Nieminen or Lleyton Hewitt in round 2, as Djokovic could face two talented grass courters in consecutive matches. The former Wimbledon champion Hewitt is playing his final Wimbledon, and surely the legend wants to leave a final mark on the All-England Club center court against Djokovic. Hewitt has been in sharp decline and has been both mentally and physically struggling this year, but he’s still 5-0 against the speedy Nieminen, and thus I’m going with him to snap a losing streak and get to round 2, before bowing out against Novak, who is superior in every way at this point in their respective careers.
The draw does not get easier for Djokovic after Kohlschreiber and Hewitt/Nieminen, as a tough first week will conclude against former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic in all likelihood. Tomic, a Stuttgart quarterfinalist, will need to defeat JL Struff, who is in the midst of a losing streak, and then Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Hyeon Chung in round 2. Herbert, a big server. qualified for Wimbledon and should have the inside track against Chung, who has talent but is inexperienced on the surface. Look for Bernie to beat them both, and then fall to Djokovic as he has in the three previous times they have met, including the 2011 Wimbledon quarters.
14 seed Kevin Anderson, a finalist in Queens, should be able to cruise past young dirtballer Lucas Pouille. who has lost five straight, and likewise pass a stiffer test against Jerzy Janowicz, a former Wimbledon semifinalist in round 2. JJ reached the quarters in Halle but has failed to be consistent this year , I don’t see him dropping a set against journeyman Marsel Ilhan (5 straight losses), but Anderson with his strong serve+forehand combo is a much more challenging opponent, and given the 2-0 h2h, the South African should advance to round 3.
Thanasi Kokkinakis will have a great shot at the third round, and should make it, presuming he defeats Mayer. Marcel Granollers or Janko Tipsarevic, both struggling vets, will be his round 2 opponent, and it’s difficult to tell which Tipsy will show up for that match. Granollers isn’t great but at least he’s been able to play competitive tennis, and thus I have him as the one losing to Kokkinakis round 2. Anderson beat Kokkinakis last year, and given this is grass with the South Africans good form, look for Djokovic vs. Anderson in the round of 16, as Kev’s good form in Queens should carry him into the second week at Wimbledon.
The winner of Nishikori/Bolelli, presumably Kei unless we get carnage in the first quarter, will almost certainly face Santiago Giraldo in round 2, unless the Colombian is shocked by Joao Souza. who has almost never played on grass. Giraldo has struggled this season, and thus even with his power forehand game maxed, Nishikori is likely to advance to round 3 presuming he can get past the round 1 match.
In that third round, any of the four options could await. Denis Kudla, the-all court American wild card with a good grass game is here, and will have an upset chance against dirtballer Pablo Cuevas. Kudla is on a hot streak with a challenger final and a title on grass in consecutive weeks, he’s always been on the cusp of a breakthrough, so a third round run would be huge for his confidence. Teymuraz Gabashvili and Alex Zverev are also both unseeded players in good form, Gabashvili won a challenger recently, while Zverev beat Djokovic in an exhibition, and is 4-3 in ATP grass court tournaments this season. It’s a tough call between Zverev and Gabashvili, but I’m going with Zverev, and then Kudla over Zverev, before Nishikori beats Kudla in the third round, simply given the difference in talent and performance in their careers, and this season.
Marin Cilic and John Isner could be on a third round collision course, Cilic a Stuttgart semifinalist, appears to be finally getting back into top 10 form after coming back from injury, and he should blitz outgunned qualifier Hiroki Moriya in round 1. After that Cilic will also be a heavy favorite against Ricardas Berankis or Andreas Haider-Maurer. AHM much prefers clay, while Berankis qualified in Halle, I have Berankis winning the round 1 match, but losing routinely to Cilic.
Isner will face another Japanese qualifier, Go Soeda, in round 1, and the Queens semifinalist should also outgun his opponent. In round 2, Isner is likely to face Matt Ebden, a formerly top 100 Aussie who is a bit of a grass court specialist these days like Kudla, Ebden and Kudla have torn up the grass court challenger circuit in the UK this year (1 title, 1 final each) and Matty should roll past Blaz Rola, a former college tennis standout. Ebden could challenge Isner if the American can’t get off the blocks well, but in all likelihood it will be Cilic vs. Isner round 3.
Cilic dominates the h2h (4-0) against Isner, and with the exception of serve, is a better player than Isner in each of the important categories. It could be a battle, but Cilic should be the player who reaches the second week.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Wawrinka/Sousa will open with with Benjamin Becker or Victor Estrella. Becker is a good grass courter but hasn’t been healthy recently, while Estrella is on a five match losing streak. If Becker is healthy he should get through that round 1 match, but Wawrinka, barring a shocking collapse, has a safe path to the third round. Former Wimbledon quarterfinalist Fernando Verdasco could await there, he will open with Martin Klizan, who has power but not really a game built for grass. Verdasco should be able to defeat Klizan and then defeat Dominic Thiem or Dudi Sela in round 2. Sela is a career journeyman but the undersized Israeli is good on grass, while Thiem is adjusting to the surface and was a poor 1-3 this year. Thiem has more talent than Sela, but upset potential is there.
Verdasco vs. Wawrinka should be a great third round match, Verdasco actually leads the h2h 2-1 but they have never met on a fast surface, the match should be on Stan’s racquet regardless, as both players can play erratic or brilliant tennis depending on the day. Wawrinka’s backhand will collide with Verdasco’s forehand, and I see Wawrinka surviving that match to reach the round of 16.
The section below Wawrinka/Verdasco is wide open, the 16 seed is David Goffin, who reached the final in Den Bosch, his best ever result on grass. Goffin should cruise past dirtballer Horacio Zeballos and then defeat either Marinko Matosevic or British wild card Liam Broady in round 2. Matosevic has lost 11 matches in a row, Broady has lost 6 in a row in one of the most out of form grand slam matches you will witness. Broady should ride the home crowd to an upset win over the hapless Matosevic, before falling to Goffin. Nottingham semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis, who tends to peak on grass, even late in his career, with his aggressive quick strike game, will open with struggling Donald Young who is on a four match losing streak. Presuming Baghdatis is healthy and fit, he should win that one, and setup a meeting with either qualifier John Millman or Tommy Robredo. Millman has always been a talent but he’s been an underachiever , while Robredo has struggled this year and went 1-1 on grass in 2015. Millman upset Robredo in Sydney in 2013, and I have him doing so again, and upsetting the 19 seed. Baghdatis should beat Millman or Robredo for a spot in the third round.
Goffin-Baghdatis should be another great match, Baghdatis has a 3-0 h2h edge including two wins this year, and I give him the advantage if he’s healthy. Look for the veteran Baghdatis to advance to the second week given his previous semifinal result at Wimbledon years ago.
7 seed Milos Raonic will open with Daniel Gimeno-Traver, a dirtballer, Raonic has been slow returning from a foot injury, but he has a good draw to reach the second week. After DGT, Tommy Haas or Dusan Lajovic will be next. Haas has, as expected, been slow returning from injury as well, with a 1-2 record on grass, and though he should beat Lajovic, who is poor on grass, Raonic should prove to be too stiff of a test for the veteran German, Raonic beat Haas in 2013 on indoor hard in straights.
Look for Nick Kyrgios to also reach the third round, after his run to the quarterfinals last year. Kyrgios has been struggling under the pressure of being the top young gun in the game at the moment, but Diego Schwartzman, his round 1 opponent, is a dirtballer, and neither Juan Monaco, nor a struggling Florian Mayer should be able to oust him in round 2. Monaco is another South American relatively allergic to grass, while Mayer reached the quarters in Halle, but the veteran has otherwise struggled. Kyrgios-Mayer could be good but presuming NK is healthy he should be fine, he tends to peak for slams.
Raonic-Kyrgios could be a great match, and NK shouldn’t be counted out, especially with Raonic having the lingering effects of a foot injury, but his relentless serve should baffle Kyrgios just like it did at Wimbledon last year, where Kyrgios was in better form. The Queens quarterfinalist Raonic should reach the second week.
11 seed Grigor Dimitrov opens with Federico Delbonis, and the winner of Lukas Lacko/Steve Johnson will follow that. Dimitrov is struggling, a winner of just two of his last six matches but he reached the semis here last year and should at least get to round 2. Johnson and Lacko are both inconsistent, but if on, could trouble Dimitrov, that said I have Grisha reaching round 3 and setting up a match against Richard Gasquet, the versatile French veteran. Gasquet opens with qualifier Luke Saville, who could trouble him given his previous junior success at Wimbledon (2011 boys champion). Gasquet should win that though and then beat either qualifier JP Smith or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, more likely De Schepper, to get that match against Dimitrov.
Gasquet is 4-0 in the h2h against Dimitrov, that said the match should still be a battle if they meet in round 3. Gasquet should advance though given Dimitrov’s poor form, and thus reach the second week.
The former Wimbledon champion, and current Queens club champion Andy Murray once again has the hopes of a nation on him at Wimbledon. His form has been fantastic all season, across the surfaces, and he should blitz into the fourth round with relative ease. Mikhail Kukushkin, who is struggling, is an easy out in round 1, and then Haase/Falla would challenge him given this is grass, but it’s unlikely they will be able to maintain the level needed to oust the UK #1. In the third round, Andreas Seppi, the Halle finalist, should await. Seppi with his varied game should be able to dispatch Brydan Klein, a UK wild card, and the winner of Sergiy Stakhovsky/Borna Coric. Coric/Stako have split meetings this year, Stakhovsky is superior on grass and thus he’s the favorite with his serve and volley game. Stako could also give Seppi problems but he hasn’t been entirely healthy. Murray is 6-1 in his career vs Seppi.
Tsonga/Muller will face Denis Istomin or Albert Ramos in round 2, Istomin won the title in Nottingham and he’s a good grass courter so he could trouble either Muller or Tsonga, but given the fatigue factor I have Muller into the third round. Ivo Karlovic will face Elias Ymer, a qualifier, in round 1, Dr. Ivo should win that with his big serve, andthen Kyle Edmund, a wild card, or Alexandr Dolgopolov will await. Dolgopolov is in good form and has two previous h2h wins over Ivo, thus I have him advancing into the third round. The Ukrainian shotmaker defeated Rafael Nadal at Queens and reached the semis in Nottingham while Karlovic reached the semis in Halle, and upset Tomas Berdych.
Muller-Dolgopolov (or Tsonga/Karlovic/Istomin) here should make for an interesting third rounder, Dolgo, if on, is a top 20 player in terms of talent, but he tends to have lapses in his game, while Muller is steady but doesn’t have as much of a peak. Either serve as a dark horse, and I have Dolgopolov getting past the two servebots Karlovic and Muller to reach the second week.
Rafael Nadal,the champion in Stuttgart, will be looking to avoid an early exit against Thomaz Bellucci. Nadal tends to be boom or bust on grass these days, and Bellucci has power, but he’s not great on grass, thus Nadal should win that, and beat Brown or Lu in round 2. Brown could trouble Nadal, as he has beaten Rafa before on grass, but I don’t see that resulting repeating itself unless Dreddy can redline his game. In the third round, Viktor Troicki, the player he faced in the Stuttgart final, is his likely opponent. Troicki opens with Alex Nedovyesov, a qualifier, and then the winner of Radek Stepanek/Aljaz Bedene. Stepanek is a declined veteran, though formerly good on grass, and with Troicki in red hot form, he shouldn’t have issue reaching the third round.
Nadal is 5-0 in his career against Troicki, so barring a shot he should dispatch the Stuttgart finalist and Queens semifinalist to reach the second week.
After the Ferrer withdrawal, lucky loser Luca Vanni will be an underdog against British wild card James Ward, as Ward has a great chance to go as far as the fourth round on grass. At a minimum, Wardy should rise and defeat Vanni in front of home fans. After that Jiri Vesely, who opens with grass allergic Paolo Lorenzi awaits. Ward isn’t in great form, while Vesely isn’t great on grass, that said, Vesely has more talent so I see him reaching the third round.
30 seed Fabio Fognini opens with a struggling Tim Smyczek, Fognini is volatile and not great on grass, thus Smyczek will have his chance, but Fognini is more likely to be ousted by a hopefully healthy Vasek Pospisil in round 2. Pospisil opens with qualifier Vincent Millot, a French journeyman veteran. He’s showed signs of improvement though he’s struggled, from time to time this year and in a weak section, I have him upsetting Fognini to reach round 3.
It’s amazing that any of the players in this section would reach the fourth round, Pospisil-Vesely is my pick for the third round matchup, and that’s a coin flip to me. I have Pospisil advancing based upon the surface, but he hasn’t showed the form needed to reach the second week of a slam in quite some time, so perhaps this is Vesely’s time to rise.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 7 time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer will again serve it up at SW19, in what is perhaps his last realistic chance to win another Grand Slam and add to his record setting total. A finalist last year, the Swiss should roll past Damir Dzumhur, and either Nottingham finalist Sam Querrey, or qualifier Igor Sijsling to reach the third round. Sock/Groth should await him in round 3, and I don’t see them giving him too much trouble given this is grass. Sock/Groth faces the winner of Malek Jaziri/James Duckworth in round 2.
Lopez/Darcis will face Nikolosz Basilashvili, a qualifier, or dirtballer Facundo Bagnis round 2. Lopez presuming he gets past Darcis shouldn’t have a problem reaching the third round. Roberto Bautista Agut could await there for an all-Spanish battle, presuming RBA beats all courter Ruben Bemelmans, and then Benoit Paire or Mikhail Youzhny. Paire hates grass, while Youzhny is nearing retirement and in poor form. I actually have RBA losing to Bemelmans in an upset, but I may be too bullish on that. The Belgian qualified for Nottingham while RBA has lost three straight. Bemelmans should also defeat Paire or Youzhny, and I have Bemelmans over Youzhny in my bracket.
Given this is grass, Lopez should reach the second week and defeat Bemelmans or another opponent, even though his season has been poor thus far.
Tomas Berdych will open with Jeremy Chardy, who he has a 3-0 h2h advantage against. Berdych reached the quarters in Halle and the former Wimbledon finalist should be able to get past that one. Wild card Nicolas Mahut, the Den Bosch champion, is a dangerous grass court serve and volleyer in round 2, presuming he rolls past Filip Krajinovic, but Berdych should have too much power for Mahut, and also one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Pablo Andujar/Ernests Gulbis/Lukas Rosol in round 3. Gulbis has been awful this year, and Rosol can be a powerful ball basher on grass, thus look for Rosol to beat Gulbis, and also Garcia-Lopez given this is grass to reach round 3. GGL reached the quarters in Queens and beat Andujar there.
Rosol is to some extent a poor man’s Berdych, given their similar styles, and the fact Berdych does everything better than Rosol, Tomas should reach the round of 16 in the battle of Davis Cup teammates. He has a 2-0 h2h edge on hard courts.
12 seed Gilles Simon opens with Nicolas Almagro, with the winner of qualifier Yuichi Sugita/Blaz Kavcic to follow. The Queens semifinalist and Nottingham quarterfinalist Simon, who has been steady this year, should advance through those matches with ease to reach round 3. Sugita is good on grass and should beat Kavcic.
18 seed Gael Monfils opens with dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta, and then Adrian Mannarino or Michael Berrer in round 2. Berrer qualified, while Mannarino, a Den Bosch quarterfinalist, is a good all-courter. Mannarino should give Monfils a test, but the Stuttgart semifinalist and Halle quarterfinalist should come through and reach round 3 to setup an all-French battle with Simon.
Simon-Monfils has previously given us some of the most exciting, yet boring tennis known to man, that said, Simon dominates the h2h 5-1, and he won a h2h meeting this year in Marseille, given his good form, Gilles is the favorite for the round of 16.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Simone Bolelli, Marcos Baghdatis, Alexandr Dolgopolov/Gilles Muller, Ruben Bemelmans
Bolelli would need to defeat Nishikori, but if he pulls off that feat the Italian shotmaker will be the favorite in every possible match going into the round of 16, and there he would have a chance against Cilic/Isner. Baghdatis should reach the round of 16, and I wouldn’t put it past him to upset Wawrinka/Verdasco there.
Dolgopolov or Muller are reaching week 2 in my bracket, I don’t see them getting past Murray though ,while Bemelmans could reach the second week if Lopez comes up short. Upsetting RBA would be a big move for him.
Djokovic d. Anderson
Cilic d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Baghdatis
Raonic d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Pospisil
Murray d. Dolgopolov
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Lopez
Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has a Wimbledon win, Cilic and Nishikori are rivals and Kei has a 5-3 edge in that one, that said this is grass and I feel Cilic has a small advantage now that he’s coming into form, just like his upset win at the US Open in the 2014 final.
Wawrinka is 5-0 against Baghdatis and has a grass court win, making me feel more at ease picking him. Raonic just beat Gasquet at Queens and leads the h2h 3-1 in that one, he should improve with each match he plays and serve his way into the quarters.
Presuming Nadal reaches the round of 16, his matchup there should be easy and the quarters is close a lock for Rafa. Murray is 3-0 against Dolgo and superior on grass, so he also should accelerate into the quarters. Murray beat Muller at Queens this year.
Simon leads the h2h 6-4 against Berdych but Berdych won their meeting this year, and has been solid this year, I feel he will overpower the Frenchman to reach the quarters. Fed is 11-0 against Lopez and I don’t see him losing before the quarters.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Raonic d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Nadal
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic beat Cilic at Wimbledon last year in 5 sets, and he leads the h2h 12-0 in that matchup, Wawrinka is 4-0 against Raonic, but their matchups have been relatively close, and this is grass, a surface I feel swings the advantage to Raonic.
Murray shocked Nadal in Madrid this year and though Rafa is 3-0 at Wimbledon in the h2h, Murray is in some of the best form of his career right now, while Rafa is not, and with that being the case, I have Murray advancing in a battle. Federer has twice beaten Berdych this year, and tends to dominate that matchup on the mental side. Federer has a loss to Berdych at Wimby but leads the grass h2h 2-1 and I see the world #2 living up to his ranking and getting through.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic is 5-0 against Raonic, it’s not out of the equation that he could be tripped up, but Djokovic rolled at their AO meeting this year, and Raonic has yet to prove he can rise up in slams and conjure up a level of play needed to beat the world #1.
Murray hasn’t beaten Federer since back surgery, but he famously beat him in the 2012 Wimbledon final and as mentioned, his form is at its peak at the moment. I’d be surprised if Murray can’t will himself into the final this year, given how solid he’s been all season, it’d be a deserved result for him to get past Fed.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic
I wouldn’t have predicted this result until Djokovic lost in the French Open final to Wawrinka. That result was a mental blow to him and I feel that result will reverberate through the rest of his 2015 season. He struggled under the pressure there, and he has show signs the loss is affecting him. He’s a more talented and skillful player than Murray, but Murray has will and heart on his side at the moment, he appears at ease with his game, and himself, and if there is any surface he can beat Novak on, it’s grass, as their previous Wimbledon final showed.
Novak hasn’t lost to Murray since his back surgery, but Murray appears back, and I was impressed by AM pushing Novak to five sets on clay at the French. Rather than pressure, look for Murray to feed off the home crowd and home cooking and take home a third grand slam title and second Wimbledon title.
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