The “big four” men are into Wimbledon week 2 on the men’s side, will one of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray or Roger Federer take home the Wimbledon title? Here is your full week 2 preview.
Round of 16:
Andy Murray vs. Benoit Paire
The defending champion has again found form, Murray dropped a set against Fabio Fognini in round 3, but won easily against Alexander Bublik and Dustin Brown. He now faces another junkball hitter, Benoit Paire, Paire is a surprise in week 2, but he hasn’t faced a difficult draw. Rogerio Dutra Silva, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, and Jerzy Janowicz was his path to week 2, and he only dropped a set against RDS, edging the big servers in rounds 2 and 3. Murray has a backhand that can compete with Paire’s, and a better all-around game, he should win this match with relative ease. Murray in 3
Sam Querrey vs. Kevin Anderson
Two great grass court players, After wins over Thomas Fabbiano and Nikoloz Basilashvili, Querrey upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over two days of tennis, winning a fifth set. Anderson eased past Fernando Verdasco, Andreas Seppi, and Ruben Bemelmans, as Daniil Medvedev upset Stan Wawrinka to open up this section. This is a great opportunity for both players, and I expect them to peak, Anderson’s serve should help him through though. Anderson in 5
Rafael Nadal vs. Gilles Muller
Nadal is 5-1 against Muller and hasn’t dropped a set this Wimbledon. Muller is in great form and should bother Rafa a bit, but his topspin should keep the veteran serve and volleyer pinned to the baseline. Nadal beat John Millman, Donald Young, and Karen Khachanov, Muller beat Marton Fuscovics, Lukas Rosol (in five sets), and Aljaz Bedene and deserves much credit for reaching the second week of Wimbledon at his age. A renewed Nadal should prevail. Nadal in 4
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Marin Cilic
RBA is here after stunning Kei Nishikori in round 3, he also scored wins over Andreas Haider-Maurer and Peter Gojowczyk, it’s a bit of a surprise he’s playing this well, but Cilic has been lights out and should score a punishing win in this one. Cilic has slayed Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, and Steve Johnson all without dropping a set, which is quite an accomplishment on grass. Cilic in 3
Milos Raonic vs. Alexander Zverev
Unlike his performance in Paris, Zverev is playing really well in a slam, he has wins over Evgeny Donskoy, Frances Tiafoe, and surprise qualifier Sebastian Ofner without dropping a set. Raonic beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Mikhail Youzhny, and Albert Ramos in his bid to repeat as a finalist or take the title this season. Raonic’s serve and skill coming forward almost ensures he’ll take a set here, but Zverev is a better mover and should be able to hit his marks to win this. Zverev in 5
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Roger Federer
Federer has never lost to Dimitrov, who plays a somewhat similar style of tennis, and he just dismissed Mischa Zverev in straights, after defeating Dusan Lajovic and Alexandr Dolgopolov. The maestro is in some of his best grass court form, and Dimitrov shouldn’t be able to match him shot for shot. Dimitrov beat Diego Schwartzman, Marcos Baghdatis, and Dudi Sela to get this far. Federer in 3
Dominic Thiem vs. Tomas Berdych
Both players have had a great tournament given they entered in shaky form, Thiem defeated Vasek Pospisil, Gilles Simon, and Jared Donaldson. Berdych defeated Jeremy Chardy, Ryan Harrison, and David Ferrer, the win over Ferrer coming in straights, even though Ferrer upset an injured Richard Gasquet in the opening round. Thiem has the game to win this match, but Berdych’s power on grass should disrupt his timing enough to help the veteran Czech reach the quarterfinals. Berdych in 5
Adrian Mannarino vs. Novak Djokovic
After winning via retirement against Feliciano Lopez, Mannarino has won long matches against Yuichi Sugita and Gael Monfils. His grass form is great and he should be proud of what he’s accomplished in week 1. That said, Novak Djokovic has taken care of business in the opening week, Martin Klizan retired against him, Adam Pavlasek and Ernests Gulbis also succumbed, even though Gulbis had found form to upset Del Potro and reach round 3. If Djokovic is going to lose this tournament, it won’t be against Mannarino, Djokovic is too physical and will bully the Frenchman around the court. Djokovic in 3
Quarters: Murray d. Anderson in 4
Cilic d. Nadal in 5
Federer d. A. Zverev in 4
Djokovic d. Berdych in 3
Cilic is playing well enough that I’ll stick by my prediction of him defeating Nadal in the quarters, the other big names, Murray, Federer, and Djokovic should shrug off challenges to reach the semifinals.
Semis: Murray d. Cilic in 4
Federer d. Djokovic in 4
Murray and Federer are the two best grass court players right now, they are worthy of meeting in the Wimbledon final, and I give Federer a clear edge in that final as long as he can keep himself fit and fresh.
It’s been a thrilling and topsy turvy week at Wimbledon, the top seed Novak Djokovic was defeated by American underdog Sam Querrey, and with the loss his hopes of a grand slam this year have once again vanished. Rain also forced play on the middle Sunday for the first time since 2004, as almost every player had to deal with some length of rain delays with their matches. Now we’re down to 16 players in the men’s draw, and with Djokovic out, a host of players have an even better chance at Grand Slam glory. Here is a preview and predictions for the week ahead at Wimbledon.
Men’s round of 16 matches
(28)Sam Querrey vs. Nicolas Mahut
The unlikely American to be alive at this stage, and a giant killer, Sam Querrey has shown great form to stun world #1 Novak Djokovic, snapping the Serbian’s streak of reaching at least the Grand Slam quarterfinals of every slam this decade. Djokovic played an abysmally poor match, going two sets to love down on Friday, and then on Saturday losing a 4th set tiebreak where his play was nervy and unfocused. Rain couldn’t save Djokovic, as Querrey served well, cranked the ball, and proved he was cool under pressure. Querrey also beat Lukas Rosol 12-10 in the 5th set in round 1, and Thomaz Bellucci in round 2. All of this winning has resulted in his best and most memorable slam.
Now Querrey has a chance to do even better, and he only has to defeat the unseeded serve and volleying veteran Nicolas Mahut to do it. Mahut upset David Ferrer after a win over Brydan Klein, and then beat his doubles partner Pierre-Hugues Herbert to reach the fourth round. Ferrer is rapidly fading from the tour, and Herbert upset Philipp Kohlschreiber in round 1. Mahut is still a great grass court player and he beat Querrey in Den Bosch. Both players have a tremendous opportunity for a career result in this match, and if Querrey plays as well as he did against Djokovic, he will win, however I expect a bit of a hangover, and Mahut to prevail.
(11)David Goffin vs. (6)Milos Raonic
The player most likely to benefit from Djokovic’s exit is Milos Raonic, who is set to make the semifinals if he continues his good form. Raonic has been dominant through three matches, particularly on his serve. The Canadian #1 defeated Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi, and Jack Sock over the past week while rarely facing even a break point, much less dropping a set. Goffin lost to Raonic this year in Indian Wells and also enters this match in good form. He dominated Alex Ward and Edouard Roger-Vasselin before getting past Denis Istomin. Goffin is a good player, but Raonic has had a tougher path and he’s been playing better, giving the Canadian a clear advantage.
(3)Roger Federer vs. Steve Johnson
Federer has to have dreams of another Grand Slam title dancing in his head after Djokovic’s exit. He entered the tournament in poor form, and unlikely to survive his section, with Djokovic looming. Now he need only worry about Milos Raonic in the semifinals. The Swiss champion was able to play his matches indoors on center court at Wimbledon, and he got past Guido Pella, home hero Marcus Willis, and Dan Evans without dropping a set. Pella tested him a bit, and Willis, a journeyman ranked below 700 in the world, made the second round with a huge win over top 100 player Ricardas Berankis. He played Federer in RF clothes, and gave it his all, but he simply didn’t have the skill or experience to match Federer.
Steve Johnson is into the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career. the American posted a career best result after wins over Malek Jaziri, Jeremy Chardy, and Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov showed improved play in his win over Gilles Simon, but then returned to earth against Johnson, who is on a long winning streak on grass, and perhaps playing the best tennis of his career. Johnson would love to win here, but Federer should be too strong on grass, it would be an accomplishment for Johnson to capture a set.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. (5)Kei Nishikori
A rematch of the 2014 US Open final, Cilic is playing great on grass and showing signs of the same form that helped him win that Grand Slam title. He has defeated Brian Baker, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Lukas Lacko thus far. Nishikori hasn’t dominated any of his opponents, but he’s had a comfortable tournament thus far. Kei defeated Sam Groth in round 1, Julien Benneteau in round 2, and Andrey Kuznetsov in round 3 to setting another second week showing in a slam for him. This should be an extremely close match, and Cilic is perhaps better on grass. I’m going to pick the consistent Nishikori in my own bracket though.
Jiri Vesely vs. (10)Tomas Berdych
The young Vesely posted his best showing since an upset of Novak Djokovic earlier this year as he reached the fourth round with wins over Igor Sijsling, Dominic Thiem, and Joao Sousa. The win over Thiem was a confident showing over his fellow young gun who has matured at a far faster rate than the Czech has, although he was once the highest ranked ATP teenager.
Vesely’s countryman Berdych is a strong favorite in this match, both due to his experience, and his solid form in wins over Ivan Dodig, Benjamin Becker, and another young gun, Alexander Zverev. Berdych is hitting the ball well enough to still be a threat in this draw, and he should prevail in this match.
(19)Bernard Tomic vs. (32)Lucas Pouille
In a week of upsets, the erratic Bernard Tomic somehow managed to avoid being upset, as he lived up to his seeding and defeated Fernando Verdasco, Radu Albot, and Roberto Bautista Agut to reach the second week. He was pushed by Verdasco, and by contrast RBA was poor in his third round match. Tomic has a shot at another Wimbledon quarterfinal years after his first as a young gun. The Aussie hasn’t gotten much attention this Wimbledon, but it’s likely helped him to perform well.
Lucas Pouille posted a breakthrough win over Juan Martin Del Potro, after wins over Marius Copil and Donald Young. the Frenchman wasn’t known his play on grass but he’s matured on the surface as a young gun and has a great result on his resume now. Del Potro did the great job of dispatching Stan Wawrinka in round 2, as Wawrinka was one of the big casualties early in the week. Pouille could win, but Tomic should be superior on grass.
(7)Richard Gasquet vs. (12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
An evenly matched battle between French veterans, Gasquet is playing some great tennis and posted another consistent opening week slam performance after reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open. Richard defeated Aljaz Bedene, Marcel Granollers, and Albert Ramos to reach the second week. Tsonga defeated Inigo Cervantes, Juan Monaco, and John Isner. He served well against Isner but was forced into a long and grueling fifth setter that ended 19-17 in the final set. This is another match that could go either way, but I favor a fresher Gasquet to get the job done.
(15)Nick Kyrgios vs. (2)Andy Murray
Murray is the new tournament favorite, and has the entire UK behind him. The British #1 has looked confident in quality wins over Liam Broady, Rendy Lu, and John Millman. He’s been serving and returning well, and now faces his first big test against the young Australian Kyrgios. Kyrgios has never defeated Murray (0-4), however he survived a tough draw and earned wins over Radek Stepanek, Dustin Brown, and Feliciano Lopez to reach the second week. All of those players are serve and volleyers however, and Murray’s return game should be able to fend off Kyrgios’ powerful serve. Murray is my pick to advance.
Quarters: Raonic d. Mahut
Federer d. Nishikori
Berdych d. Tomic
Murray d. Gasquet
Raonic, Federer, Berdych and Murray are the stronger players in their quarterfinals. Nishikori could upset Federer, but otherwise this looks like your final four.
Semis: Raonic d. Federer
Murray d. Berdych
I’m going to pick Raonic, if he plays as well as he has so far, to upset Federer, and Murray to continue his march against Berdych. Federer would love another slam, but Raonic is a really tough opponent right now.
Final: Murray d. Raonic
At Wimbledon, with Murray’s returning abilities, he has to be the favorite to take home a third slam, and second Wimbledon title.
Djokovic Turns Away Federer to Defend Wimbledon Title Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Roger Federer failed to put together consecutive top class performances, and it was Novak Djokovic who once again walked away with the Wimbledon title. The 2015 trophy is his third at the All-England club, and he’s the first repeat winner at Wimbledon on the men’s side since Federer in the mid 2000’s. Djokovic has now won two slams this year, and continues to be secure in the world #1 ranking spot, as he’s the best player in the men’s game right now by some margin.
Djokovic beat Federer in three hours, and four sets 7-6(1) 6-7(10) 6-4 6-3, as Federer fought hard to try and get the first two sets, but his quality declined over the final two frames. In set 1 Federer went up a break 4-2, but lost his serve the next game, he would later have two set point chances on Djokovic’s serve at 5-6, but Novak saved them both in a long service game, and then rolled through the tiebreak as Federer’s chances disappeared.
The Swiss would fight back in the second, even after failing to convert two more break point chances at 2-2. He staved off a set point serving 4-5, and then in the second set tiebreak saved an incredible six set points, including three consecutive down 3-6 in the tiebreak, before finally converting his second set point serving 11-10 in the tiebreak.
At this point Djokovic was angry, but he used that anger to fuel his game to another gear, a gear that Federer lacked. After dealing with an assault of winners from Fed, and some sloppy errors on his part in the first two sets, Djokovic buckled down and broke for 2-1 in the third, after failing to convert two break points in the opening service game of set 3. There would be a rain delay a couple of games later, but Federer didn’t look any better coming out of it, as Djokovic held the rest of the way and took the third 6-4, forcing Federer into a difficult position.
In set 4, Federer appeared to struggle with the wind and his error count went up considerably, he lost his serve at 2-3, and never recovered, failing to generate a break point on the Djokovic serve. At 3-5 he was broken again, gifting Djokovic the match on his first match point. Statistically, both men served at a similar level, but Djokovic was more efficient facing break point, as he saved 6 out of 7, while Fed saved 6 of 10, after previously only being broken once all tournament. Djokovic was also cleaner from the baseline as he slapped 46 winners compared to 16 errors, while Federer had a 58/35 spread. Simply put, Djokovic’s superior returning was enough to win the day against his elder rival as the Serbian sporting legend demonstrated he has shaken off any mental cobwebs from his shocking French Open final defeat to Wawrinka.
Surely Djokovic will enter the summer Masters tournaments, and the US Open as the favorite as he bids to win 3 out of 4 slams on the season. Federer meanwhile demonstrated he still has more good matches left in him, as his play at times this week was fantastic, even compared to his level of play in his prime. Winning a five set match against a physical opponent will likely continue to be a tough ask in a slam final, but Federer remains as the world #2 for good reason, and his longevity and grace is something to behold, as we truly are in a great era for men’s tennis.
In the second week, it was infact Djokovic that had to fight harder to reach the final, he shockingly went down 2-0 against Kevin Anderson, as the South African won a pair of tough tiebreaks 8-6 and was serving at a peak level, a level Djokovic was dazed by. The world #1 would do what world #1’s do however, as he found the spirit within himself to wake up, and remind Anderson beating the best in the world doesn’t come easy. He won the third set 6-1, and the fourth 6-4 as Anderson collapsed under the pressure of trying to pull off what would have been a massive upset. At this point, darkness suspended the match, and the next day Djokovic came out and won the fifth set 7-5. Anderson fought harder than expected to try to recover and finish the upset, but Djokovic had that extra gear that Kev couldn’t reach, in what was the biggest test for Novak of the 2015 tournament.
He went on to roll past a fatigued Marin Cilic in straights 6-4 6-4 6-4, and then outplayed, and outworked Richard Gasquet, a surprise semifinalist 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4. Gasquet played some of the best tennis of his career, as he upset Stan Wawrinka in the semifinals 11-9 in the 5th set. Wawrinka played well overall, as grass isn’t his best fit as a surface, and his first four wins were great, but Gasquet’s backhand befuddled him and he couldn’t get over the hump. It was an accomplishment for the classy French veteran to reach a grand slam semifinal as a 21 seed regardless, in round 4 Gasquet beat Nick Kyrgios in a close fourth set tiebreak, erasing the awful memory of his defeat last year against the volatile young Aussie.
As for Federer, he had little trouble against Roberto Bautista Agut, who was hampered by a sprained ankle and fell in straights, and then he beat Gilles Simon, another Frenchman who had a successful tournament, but had little to threaten the world #2. Simon beat Gael Monfils and Tomas Berdych on the week, but lost to Federer in 3 sets. In the semis, it was Andy Murray, who was also playing great tennis at Wimbledon. Murray came into the match as a slight favorite after a pair of week two wins over the big serving Ivo Karlovic in four sets, and surprise quarterfinalist Vasek Pospisil in three sets. Pospisil was the player who took advantage of the soft section in the draw, and reached his first ever slam quarterfinal, as he continues to occasionally show he still is a player with promise, especially on fast surfaces that suit his underrated serve.
Murray didn’t play poorly at all against Federer as he kept his first serve % high, and his error count relatively low, but Federer was simply stunning, putting up one of the serving performances of his career. The world #3 and UK number #1 often failed to generate even half chances against the Federer serve, and the Swiss broke when needed with his controlled aggression, world-class forehand and crisp volleys to take the match 7-5 7-5 6-4. His home fan base was certainly disappointed, but Murray really did all he could this tournament, and Federer on the day was just too good for anyone, as Murray again came up short in his quest to win another Wimbledon. All the same he’s had a good, and consistently top-tier year as he appears healthy, and happy with his tennis.
In the men’s doubles a surprise final took place as the #4 seeds Jean-Julien Rojer, and Horia Tecau beat Jamie Murray, the brother of Andy, and his partner John Peers the #13 seeds 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4. Tecau had previously come up short in Wimbledon finals, so finally taking the championship was a major career highlight for him. A qualifying team of Jonathan Erlich and Philipp Petzschner reached the semifinals, beating #2 seeds Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo in the process, while the Bryan brothers lost in the quarterfinals to Florin Mergea and Rohan Bopanna.
The (primarily) North American hard court summer will begin in earnest for many of the worlds top players now as the focus shifts towards the US Open Series, on the road to the 2015 US Open, as many great matches have yet to be played in 2015.
Week 1 at Wimbledon finished with a late night five-setter under the centre court roof, as once again grass court tennis brought out the best in some of the top ATP players, and the worst in others. Most of the favorites are still in contention, and are resting up on this middle Sunday to prepare themselves to race to the finish line next week. We saw a couple of wild upsets, but all in all the quality of the week 2 field is excellent, and here is a look at the matchups, and a bit about what happened in the first week.
Men’s round of 16 matchups
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (14)Kevin Anderson
Novak Djokovic has once again rolled through week 1 of slam with an unblemished resume, as he fought off challenges from Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, and Bernard Tomic without dropping a set. Now however, the real test of his form will begin, starting with the big serving and lanky Anderson who beat Lucas Pouille in 4 sets, the surprising Marsel Ilhan also in 4 sets, and Leonardo Mayer in straight sets. Djokovic is 4-1 against Anderson and has won their last four meetings, his form on return has been excellent and he’s gotten breaks when needed, suggesting to me he’ll be able to break Anderson in the clutch and come away with a win, in three to four sets. As asides, Nieminen ousted Lleyton Hewitt from Wimbledon in a long fifth set in round 1, ending the former champion’s illustrious Wimbledon career in singles, while Ilhan shocked former Wimbledon semifinalist Jerzy Janowicz in round 1, and make Turkish fans swell with pride in one of the bigger week 1 upsets. After the Djokovic match, Tomic lashed out at Tennis Australia over their lack of support for him, and made more headlines off the court than on this tournament. Djokovic in 4 sets
(9)Marin Cilic vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Marin Cilic has had to claw his way into week 2, while American wild card Denis Kudla has cemented himself as a talented grass court specialist with his own memorable Wimbledon run this year. The Croatian beat Hiroki Moriya in straights, but then needed five sets against both Ricardas Berankis and John Isner to advance into the round of 16.
Berankis gave it his all, serving well against a bigger player in Cilic, but the former top junior came up just short 7-5 in the 5th, while Isner served his way to two sets, but lost two tiebreaks, and then after getting the 5th set to 10-10 and forcing a suspension of play due to darkness on Friday night, came out flat Saturday morning and lost two consecutive games for a 12-10 fifth set loss. Isner once again disappoints in a slam, as the American #1 couldn’t get over the hump, even on a favorable surface such as grass.
As for Kudla, he’s keeping American hopes alive on the men’s side and it started with a comeback from 2 sets to love down against the veteran Pablo Cuevas who ran out of gas late, after that he defeated pesky young gun Alex Zverev in four, and Santiago Giraldo also in five sets, staving off a collapse in the third set to win the final two frames 6-1 6-3.
Kudla is 13-1 on grass in 2015, and given that Cilic struggled with the undersized ball striker Berankis, and could be dealing with a bit of fatigue, the American baseliner will get his chance to counterpunch to a win. That said he’ll need to be mentally strong nad maintain his serve to have a chance, and Cilic is still the favorite given experience, and ranking. Kudla will never have a better chance at beating Cilic than on grass, but I think he’ll come up just short in 4 or 5 sets. Cilic in 5 sets is my pick. Kei Nishikori, the favorite in this section, withdrew with an injury after a five set win over Simone Bolelli in round 1.
Stan Wawrinka has looked to be on his game at Wimbledon this year, he beat Joao Sousa, Victor Estrella, and Fernando Verdasco without dropping a set, and wasn’t threatened by any of those opponents. When Stan gets on a roll and gets hot, like he did in Paris, watch out, and David Goffin is likely his next victim in the round of 16. The Belgian is 0-2 against Wawrinka in his career (including a loss in Chennai this year), but he does have the fact he has won three matches without a hint of struggle increasing his chances in this one.
Goffin demolished Horacio Zeballos, Liam Broady, and solid grass court player Marcos Baghdatis and has only had three close sets of tennis out of the 9 he’s played. Both these players are in great form, but Wawrinka’s backhand and brute power should blitz Goffin, resulting in Wawrinka in 4 sets. It should also be mentioned that Broady came back from two sets to love down against Marinko Matosevic, as the young Brit was aided by the crowd to an upset victory in round 1.
(21)Richard Gasquet vs. (26)Nick Kyrgios
A rematch of both their meeting this year in the Estoril final (Gasquet won with ease on clay), and their epic 2014 Wimbledon match (Kyrgios saved more than a half dozen match points to win 10-8 in the fifth set from two sets to love down), this one could prove to be yet another classic if the Frenchman and the Aussie bring their a-game. Gasquet hasn’t dropped a set and rolled through Luke Saville, Kenny De Schepper, and Grigor Dimitrov with ease, the win over Dimitrov was particularly impressive as the Bulgarian never pressured him, even on grass.
Kyrgios beat Diego Schwartzman and Juan Monaco in straights, and made more waves for his outbursts on court and behavior towards the chair umpire than for his tennis results. In round 3 that changed though, as he upset Milos Raonic in 4 sets to setup this match. Raonic was particularly poor on return in that one, and once again the aggressive approach of Kyrgios seems to be paying off for him on grass.
It’s hard to predict how this one will go, and Gasquet is more “reliable” as a commodity, but Kyrgios certainly has more peak, and he seems healthy and motivated, with that in mind, I’m going with Kyrgios to reach his second consecutive Wimbledon quarterfinal and upset Gasquet in 4 sets. Kyrgios in 4 sets. He’s becoming an unpopular player in the eyes of some folks, but that doesn’t make him any less talented, even though Gasquet will be a tough opponent to oust.
(22)Viktor Troicki vs. Vasek Pospisil
Thanks to Rafael Nadal being upset once again at Wimbledon, this time by the aggressive serve and volleyer Dustin Brown in 4 sets, this is the round of 16 matchup we have (also aided by David Ferrer’s pre tournament withdrawal). Troicki defeated Alex Nedovyesov and Aljaz Bedene in four sets, before getting past the dangerous but inconsistent Brown in the same number of sets. Dreddy’s aggressive style worked against a defensive and flat footed Rafa, but Troicki’s more varied game was a more challenging matchup, as the Serbian has regained his great grass court form and still serves as a dark horse of the players remaining.
Vashy has found success in both singles and doubles this time at Wimbledon, the Canadian has been popping serves and survived a five setter with Vincent Millot in round 1. After coming through that he found it a bit easier against Fabio Fognini in round 2, advancing in four sets, and then he had to win 8-6 in the 5th against home hero James Ward, who had a cinderella run to the third round and will now be ranked inside the top 100 for the first time in his career. The long five setter had very few break point chances, and Pospisil did what he needed to do to get the win with a late 6-6 break.
Troicki and Pospisil have never met before, and Pospisil’s serve could keep Troicki at bay, that said, Pospisil is likely to be more fatigued than Troicki, and the Serbian has shown more consistent ability on grass. At the end of the day Troicki should outperform the remaining Canadian in this draw and advance in 4 sets. Troicki in 4 sets
Andy Murray is 5-0 against Dr. Ivo, and has a Wimbledon win against him (2012 4 sets), that said the massive serving Croatian always presents a unique challenge on grass, a challenge the Brit will have to rise to face if he is to end the week holding the trophy. Murray has thus far been relatively unchallenged by Mikhail Kukushkin, Robin Haase, and Andreas Seppi, dropping just 1 set this week in three matches. Kukushkin nearly came away with a set but choked under pressure, while Seppi took a set that was aided by Murray having shoulder pain, but an injury timeout quickly resolved things, and the counterpunching Scot otherwise has looked solid on serve and on return this week.
Karlovic has had to battle to get this far, but the veteran has scored impressive wins over Elias Ymer in 4 sets, Alex Dolgopolov in 5 sets (13-11 in the 5th) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 4 sets. Tsonga survived Gilles Muller, another big server, in round 1, but Karlovic proved two much for him as he was awful on return, and due to a controversial call in the 4th set tiebreak between them, lost the match instead of forcing a fifth set. Dolgopolov likewise battled and they played just one tiebreak (a tiebreak he won), but his serve broke down under pressure in the 5th.
Given the head to head, I have to go with Murray, and I do think he’ll get through this, presuming the shoulder is ok, without dropping a set. At Karlovic’s age he should be more fatigued at this point, and Murray should be quick to exploit that as he is one of the best returners in the game. Murray in 3 sets
(6)Tomas Berdych vs. (12)Gilles Simon
Perhaps the most interesting matchup at this stage, Simon is 6-4 against Berdych in the h2h, but Berdych won their meeting this year and they have never faced each other on grass. The Czech has had a relatively comfortable draw as he got past Jeremy Chardy in two tiebreaks and four sets, and then rolled past the serve and volleyer Nicolas Mahut in straights, and surprise third rounder Pablo Andujar in 4, as Andujar started strong but couldn’t maintain that level.
Simon beat Nicolas Almagro in straights and Blaz Kavcic in four sets, then won a late night five setter against Gael Monfils to conclude the third round on Saturday night. The match began on court 1, but after three sets (Simon leading 2-1) was moved to centre court under the roof, so that the third round could finish with middle Sunday looming. Simon got off to a slow start at the new venue but Monfils ran out of gas and he finished it 6-2 in the 5th before the 11 P.M. curfew.
Simon will rally in this one, while Berdych will bring his power to this matchup, and it could go either way, that said Berdych has been the better player in 2015, and his current form suggests he’ll prevail in this one, given the fast surface of grass should aid his chances. Berdych in 4 sets
(2)Roger Federer vs. (20)Roberto Bautista Agut
Federer demolished RBA twice last year, and he’ll seek to do so again as he continues his quest for yet another Wimbledon title. The Swiss maestro has been in tune with his tennis against Damir Dzumhur, Sam Querrey, and Sam Groth, dropping just one set against Groth, and beating the others in straights. His level dropped, and Groth, a big server, pushed hard to take the fourth set, but otherwise Federer has been firing winners, and his game has been especially clean, with very few unforced errors this tournament.
As for RBA, he beat Ruben Bemelmans in 3 sets, Benoit Paire in 5 sets, and qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili in 3 sets to advance this far. The Spaniard has had a weak draw that has worked in his favor, and given Federer’s controlled aggression, the result should be Federer in 3 sets.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament:
Quarters: Djokovic d. Cilic in 3 sets
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios in 4 sets
Murray d. Troicki in 3 sets
Federer d. Berdych in 4 sets
Djokovic is 12-0 in his career against Cilic, he’s looked solid this tournament and Marin should be exhausted to this point, barring a shock, Djokovic shouldn’t even drop a set.
Wawrinka just beat a slightly injured Kyrgios at Queens, and his game is clicking right now, whether it’s Gasquet or Kyrgios, Stan the man should get past either without pulling his hair out.
Murray is 7-0 against Troicki (including a win not long ago in Queens on grass), it’s simply not a good matchup for Viktor, and presuming Murray doesn’t have any lingering shoulder issues he should cruise into the semis without Nadal in his way.
Federer has won his last three meetings against Berdych and he should avenge their last Wimbledon meeting (2010), and beat the mentally weak Czech to reach the semis
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka in 5
Murray d. Federer in 5
Both semifinals could be true classics this year, Wawrinka is the one opponent Djokovic would not like to face right now, given Stan crushed him in Paris, that said this is grass not clay, and the faster surface should favor Djokovic if he doesn’t have a mental block against the Swiss. The world #1 is now 2-2 in his last four against Wawrinka as they have a truly even rivalry going at this point in time. Wawrinka in his current form will have a great chance to reach the final, and perhaps even win the title, but Djokovic should be able to recover from the Roland Garros result and reach the final at Wimbledon as he bids for his second straight title.
Murray-Federer is the matchup most people have been craving since the draw was released, as they are two of the purest and best grass courters in the current mens game right now. As legend goes, Murray won at the Olympics on grass to get the gold, while Federer won a few weeks prior in the Wimbledon final back in 2012. At this new stage in their careers, Murray is in perhaps the best form of his career, while Federer isn’t quite as sharp as he was in best of 5 sets compared to 2012, that should flip this result and see the UK #1 bidding for Wimbledon title number 2, with considerably lessp pressure than 2012 or 2013.
Final: Murray d. Djokovic in 5 sets
I’m predicting five set semifinals and a five set final, because it’s incredibly hard to decide between these two great grass courters, as to who the champion will be. Djokovic would be a probable favorite if he got this far, and his recent success against Murray certainly makes him a deserving favorite. That said Murray has won a Wimbledon final over Djokovic before, and he’s played the world #1 better this year with each match. Grass is his best surface in terms of having a chance to win another slam, and beat Djokovic, and with that I’m going with Murray like I said at the start of the tournament to take home Wimbledon #2 and Slam #3.
