Novak Djokovic became the first player in the ATP era to claim all four Grand Slams, and all nine Masters level titles in his career after claiming victory in the Western and Southern Open ATP Cincinnati final defeating Roger Federer 6-4 6-4 in a gripping final where most of the pressure was on Djokovic’s shoulders. Djokovic had never defeated Federer in Cincy previous, and of course he’d never won the title. Still building his comeback post elbow surgery as he aims to return to an elite level, facing off with the still elite Federer looked to be a tough matchup. Djokovic cracked the code though as he was much stronger on serve than Fed. The Swiss tried to play aggressive both from the baseline, and at the net, but he generated too many errors, outpacing his winners. Djokovic was confident and calm and despite going a break down in set 2, he recovered nicely to ease to a straight set win that should set him up as the co-US Open favorite.
Djokovic had to battle this week in Cincy, and not just in the final. Steve Johnson pushed him in the first round, then he dropped sets against Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic, but battled back each time to reach the final in what were relatively high quality contests.
Federer dropped just a set before the final, as he was tested by an improving Stan Wawrinka, his other wins came against Peter Gojowczyk, Leonardo Mayer, and David Goffin, Goffin had to retire in the semifinal match.
The doubles final was won by Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares as they defeated Cabal/Farah.
2018 ATP Cincinnati Features the Return of Roger Federer and a Nadal/Djokovic Quarter Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Cincinnati Masters is the final Masters 1000 of the Summer hard court season and the primary US Open prep for most of the ATP’s best. Here is your look at all the action in Mason, Ohio this week.
Nadal’s Quarter:
Rafael Nadal is in the Rogers Cup final and playing great right now, however fitness could be a concern. He’ll start against a qualifier or Milos Raonic, I like Raonic to pull the upset simply because Rafa should be in need of a rest after Toronto. Look for wild card Frances Tiafoe to benefit in a big way here. Tiafoe has to get past Denis Shapovalov first, but presuming he does that Kyle Edmund/Mackenzie McDonald is beatable right now, and Raonic just lost to Tiafoe in Canada. Look for Tiafoe to emerge as an unlikely quarterfinalist.
Novak Djokovic looks set to ease past Steve Johnson and Adrian Mannarino/Marco Cecchinato. While Djokovic disappointed in Toronto he still looks healthy and focused, that should help him defeat Grigor Dimitrov in the third round after Dimitrov defeats Damir Dzumhur/Mischa Zverev.
Alexander Zverev has had a good summer and it would be made better if he could win Cincy. The young German will start against an in-form Robin Haase or Filip Krajinovic, with most likely Pablo Carreno Busta waiting on deck. Richard Gasquet returns from injury vs. PCB while Max Marterer or a qualifier await in round 2. This is Zverev’s section to lose.
Marin Cilic is playing well, he should defeat Philipp Kohlschreiber or a qualifier, and then John Isner or the Toronto semifinalist Karen Khachanov to reach the quarterfinals. Isner faces Sam Querrey first, while Khachanov drew a struggling Albert Ramos. Cilic over Isner is my pick as Khachanov should be fatigued.
Juan Martin Del Potro drew either Hyeon Chung or Jack Sock first. That would normally be a tough matchup but under current circumstances JMDP is a heavy favorite as Chung is still rusty and Sock is in the worst form of his career. I’ll back Borna Coric over a qualifier and a struggling Nick Kyrgios/qualifier to reach the third round before falling to Del Potro.
Toronto finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas is slated to face David Goffin first, while the player he defeated in the semis, Kevin Anderson, is in the same section. If Tsitsipas plays I’ll back him to beat a struggling Goffin and then Benoit Paire or a soon to retire David Ferrer before Anderson gets his revenge and wins in round 3. Anderson has to get past Jeremy Chardy/Fernando Verdasco to reach that point.
Roger Federer returns to tour and should breeze past Joao Sousa/Peter Gojowczyk before facing Andy Murray round 3. Expect Murray to put up a fight after beating Lucas Pouille and Leonardo Mayer/qualifier, but he shouldn’t be at the level yet to beat Federer.
I’ll back Andrey Rublev to upset Kei Nishikori in round 1, as Nishikori was poor in Toronto. Diego Schwartzman should benefit, I’ll back DSS to defeat Stan Wawrinka and then Rublev to reach round 3 opposite Dominic Thiem. Thiem is struggling and should be on upset alert against Marton Fucsovics/qualifier. I’ll back Schwartzman or Rublev to win the section.
Quarters Djokovic d. Tiafoe
Zverev d. Cilic
Anderson d. Del Potro
Federer d. Schwartzman
Zverev should perform well this week while Anderson, Federer, and Djokovic have the inside track to reach the semis. Semis Zverev d. Djokovic
Federer d. Anderson
This is Federer’s tournament to lose but Zverev or Djokovic should challenge him in the end.
ATP Shanghai Masters Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Shanghai Rolex Masters features the best players left standing this season on the ATP tour battling it out for points and looking to influence the World Tour Finals standings. Here is your full preview with predictions.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal has won 12 straight and should extend that winning streak over Jared Donaldson and Fabio Fognini/Lucas Pouille to reach the quarterfinals. Pouille nearly beat Nadal in Beijing, and would love another bite at the cherry. Sam Querrey faces an in-form Yuichi Sugita, then a hopefully recovered Benoit Paire in round 2, or Frances Tiafoe. Querrey should fall to Beijing semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the third round, Dimitrov should beat Ze Zhang or Ryan Harrison to reach the third round. Nadal over Dimitrov in the quarters seems to be a sensible pick.
Nick Kyrgios/Marin Cilic and Kevin Anderson/Pablo Carreno Busta will decide the second quarterfinal section. Kyrgios, presuming he’s fit, should keep up his good form with a win over Steve Johnson, Di Wu/Jeremy Chardy, and Cilic (or Kyle Edmund/Jiri Vesely). Cilic isn’t a pushover, but Kyrgios has a higher ceiling. Anderson will look to serve past Tokyo finalist Adrian Mannarino, who will probably be tired out, Mischa Zverev or J.L. Struff will follow, with Carreno Busta taking on Albert Ramos or Joao Sousa. I have Anderson reaching the quarters before falling to Kyrgios.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer could be opposite the in-form David Goffin in the quarters, Goffin opens with Gilles Simon, Roberto Bautista Agut or Richard Gasquet are likely in the third round. I have RBA finding form to upset a tired Goffin, and then Federer winning in the quarterfinals. Federer will Diego Schwartzman or Jordan Thompson, and likely Jack Sock/Alex Dolgopolov in the third round.This is an interesting section but it likely will go as expected unless Schwartzman pulls off a shock.
The young guns section of the draw features Dominic Thiem and Alex Zverev. Thiem will take on Denis Shapovalov/Viktor Troicki, Zverev will face Andrey Rublev or Juan Martin Del Potro. Damir Dzumhur, John Isner, and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also in this section, I have Isner over Thiem and Zverev over Del Potro, with Zverv reaching the semis.
Predictions
Semis
Nadal d. Kyrgios
Federer d. Zverev
Final
Nadal d. Federer
Nadal is red hot right now and should be a clear favorite in Shanghai.
2017 ATP Monte Carlo Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first clay court Masters of the season is once again upon us as most of the world’s best have traveled down to the French Riviera for clay court tennis action on the coast. Here is your preview, with predictions of this luxurious event.
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Monte Carl0, Monaco
April 16-23, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €4,273,775
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Marin Cilic (8)
6: Dominic Thiem (9)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (10)
8: Grigor Dimitrov (12)
Red-hot Roger Federer, Defending finalist Gael Monfils, his countryman Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Nick Kyrgios, and David Ferrer are all notably absent from the Monte Carlo Masters this year.
First round matchups to watch:
Benoit Paire vs. Tommy Haas
At 39 Tommy Haas continues to play on, and he showed signs of life last week in Houston, winning a match on clay and competing hard for his best result since 2015. Paire 7-2 over his last two tournaments, should win this easily, but at times his focus wavers and Haas has nothing to lose in this one. Paire should prevail but we’ll see what Haas has left in the tank, he could retire this summer on grass in Germany, but we’ll see.
(16)Pablo Cuevas vs. Viktor Troicki
Cuevas is 0-3 in the h2h vs. Troicki, but the Serbian is not as accomplished on clay compared to Cuevas, and Cuevas already has an ATP title on clay this season. Even as a veteran, Cuevas would love to break new ground and get his first win against Troicki.
(13)Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Fabio Fognini
PCB leads Fognini 4-0 in the h2h, which means he should win this one, despite Fognini’s burst of form that saw him reach the semifinals in Miami. This should be a classic clay court battle. Fognini has more upside, but PCB is much more consistent and most likely in a round 1 contest PCB should have a slight edge.
Top Half:
Despite an elbow injury and relative under-performance this year, Andy Murray still is 12-3 this year and the world #1. Murray should be fit enough to beat veteran Tommy Robredo in round 2, presuming Robredo beats Gilles Muller after a good run to the quarterfinals in Marrakech. Murray would then face either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Albert Ramos most likely. Ramos faces qualifier Renzo Olivo, while Kohlschreiber gets qualifier Carlos Berlocq. Kohli pushed Murray in Dubai, and had match points, but couldn’t take the match. After losing the Marrakech final, Kohlschreiber probably isn’t in the best mental state, and Murray is the clear favorite against either Ramos or Kohli to reach the quarterfinals.
Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych are the top seeds in the section below, Cilic is struggling and Berdych is a former MC finalist. Look for Berdych to beat Andrey Kuznetsov, then Paire/Haas, while I have Cilic getting upset by his countryman Borna Coric, who claimed his first ATP title last week in Marrakech and opens with Jeremy Chardy. Berdych hasn’t had a great season, but he should reach the quarterfinals before falling to Murray.
Former MC champ Stan Wawrinka will be happy to see no Roger Federer in this draw, he looks set to perform well, as neither Marrakech semifinalist Jiri Vesely or an underperforming Mischa Zverev are overly difficult in round 2. Cuevas should beat Troicki and then Joao Sousa, who beat Florian Mayer round 1, to setup their third round contest, with Wawrinka as a clear favorite.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga gets a qualifier in round 2, either Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Adrian Mannarino. No matter the winner of that match, Tsonga should extend his 17-4 record this season with a win, and also defeat his countryman Lucas Pouille in round 3, presuming Pouille beats Ryan Harrison, which is likely on clay, along with either Marcel Granollers or Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi could be a threat here, but Tsonga over Pouille is a sensible prediction.
Bottom Half:
After dealing with his own injury problems, Novak Djokovic will face Gilles Simon, a winner on Sunday over Malek Jaziri, in round 2. Look for Djokovic to make it 11 straight against Simon and begin his quest for a third Monte-Carlo title. Djokovic looks set to face Pablo Carreno Busta in round 3, as PCB should beat Fognini and either Karen Khachanov or Nicolas Mahut.
David Goffin and Dominic Thiem look to be on a collision course yet again after Goffin finished off his countryman Steve Darcis on Sunday. Thiem needs to defeat either Federico Delbonis or Robin Haase, while Goffin now gets Martin Klizan or Nicolas Almagro. A solid clay courter, Delbonis will have a chance to disrupt expectations, but Thiem over Goffin is my choice in round 3, after Goffin beats Klizan. Goffin is more consistent than Thiem, but on clay, the Austrian has more upside.
Nine-time and defending MC champ Rafael Nadal should blitz past either Dan Evans or Kyle Edmund, and then beat Alexander Zverev in round 3, as Zverev will be favored against Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez/Daniil Medvedev. Denied a title this season, Nadal should be highly motivated at a venue he’s been so successful at, look for Rafa to roll safely into the quarters, while Zverev edges through a week section into round 3.
Grigor Dimitrov has now lost three straight after a hot start, and he needs to watch out against either Jan-Lennard Struff or the young gun Casper Ruud. Both players are solid on clay and will be highly motivated to try and get an upset, I will pick Dimitrov to prevail but I have him losing to the consistent Roberto Bautista Agut, as RBA should beat Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Diego Schwartzman/Bernard Tomic. Tomic has had a terrible season thus far.
Dark Horses: Borna Coric and Jan-Lennard Struff
Coric just won his first title, and beyond Cilic, Berdych is not the most difficult third round opponent in a Masters, particularly at this stage in his career. Coric will need to reach new heights and deal with fatigue, but I don’t count this young gun out. Struff meanwhile has a winnable second round match on deck with Dimitrov after facing Ruud, and the only other difficult seed in the section is Bautista Agut. Struff has always had the game to get big wins but he’s been lacking in the mental department.
Predictions
Quarters Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Nadal d. Bautista Agut
Djokovic d. Thiem
The big four of this tournament should make the semis, Wawrinka and Djokovic may be at risk, but it will require great results from Tsonga and Thiem, beyond what they normally produce, or terrible showings on the part of the Swiss and Serbian. Murray and Nadal meanwhile don’t have the most difficult of draws, and Rafa on clay is just not someone to pick against when not facing a top 5 player.
Semis Wawrinka d. Murray
Nadal d. Djokovic
Barring a big change, Nadal and Wawrinka should be favored on clay in these potential semifinals. Djokovic’s level has dipped, Nadal has returned to a top 5 level of play, while Murray has always dipped, while Wawrinka’s peak remains elite.
Final Nadal d. Wawrinka
I’m not enough of a risk-taker to go against Nadal in Monte-Carlo.
2016 ATP Shanghai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2016 Asian Swing has arrived at its main event, the Masters 1000 level Shanghai Masters tournament in Shanghai, China. Here is a preview, with predictions, of the best men’s tennis tournament in Asia.
Shanghai Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Shanghai, China
October 9-16, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $5,452,985
Top 8 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP Rankings in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (4)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Gael Monfils (8)
7: Tomas Berdych (9)
8: Marin Cilic (11)
Dominic Thiem and Kei Nishikori are notably absent, Borna Coric and Alexandr Dolgopolov are also skipping out.
First round matchups to watch:
(14)Richard Gasquet vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Gasquet has never lost to current Beijing finalist Dimitrov (5-0), and he reached the final in Shenzen on the Asian swing. Dimitrov has been playing some great tennis this Fall though, and should test the Frenchman. Given the fatigue factor, I still favor Gasquet to extend his h2h record.
(15)Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Bernard Tomic
Tomic beat RBA at Wimbledon this year but he’s lost two straight matches and looks to have lost his way again. The Spaniard was a semifinalist in St. Petersburg, and he should be able to win this given Tomic’s poor recent play.
Alexander Zverev vs. John Isner
Zverev is a red hot 7-1 since Wimbledon, Isner is playing for the first time since a third round exit at the US Open. The American should be well rested, and Zverev will have a tough time breaking his serve, but the German has made rapid improvements in his game this year while Isner has been disappointing. Look for Zverev to continue his momentum and snatch a win.
(10)David Ferrer vs. Feliciano Lopez
Ferrer has won seven straight against Lopez and should roll in this contest over the struggling Spaniard who may not be fit. Still it’s an interesting style contrast, and with Ferrer coming off a semifinal loss in Beijing, it will be interesting to see if he can continue his improved play. The veteran has had his worst season in years and needs to finish strong.
Gilles Simon vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Simon and PCB have split meetings this year. The Frenchman is a more accomplished veteran but I’m tipping the Beijing quarterfinalist PCB in an upset. He’s improved his hard court game by leaps and bounds this year and has positive momentum after upsetting Tomic and Gasquet last week.
(11)David Goffin vs. (WC)Juan Martin Del Potro
Goffin battles hard and he’s into the final in Tokyo, but Del Potro has the ability to blow him off the court with his power game. The Argentine is now up to #66 in the world, but he still needed a wild card here and could really do some damage if he’s fit.
Djokovic’s Quarter:
Novak Djokovic is playing again for the first time since the US Open. The World #1 is a three time and defending Shanghai Champion and he’ll start his effort to repeat against either Fabio Fognini or Albert Ramos. Fognini dominates Ramos in the h2h but isn’t in great form, so even if he wins in round 1, Novak should win their match. Dimitrov/Gasquet will face Ivo Karlovic or a qualifier in round 2. Karlovic could really trouble Novak in the third round, but I feel Gasquet will slip his way into round 3 before falling to Djokovic.
Tomas Berdych will face Marcel Granollers or a qualifier with current Tokyo finalist Nick Kyrgios slated to face him in a scintillating third round matchup. Kyrgios opens with Sam Querrey, and then Ze Zhang or a qualifier in round 2. Both players are in good form, but I favor Berdych as he’ll be pushing to qualify for London.
Nadal’s Quarter:
Beijing quarterfinalist Rafael Nadal has never won Shanghai, and could really use a pair of routine wins over Viktor Troicki (or a qualifier), and most likely Bautista Agut to gain some momentum. Tomic, a qualifier, or a struggling Stephane Robert are also in this section, but it’s clearly Nadal’s to lose.
The section below Rafa is stacked, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic, and Zverev/Isner all feature. The Tokyo semifinalist Cilic gets the bye, and is in the quest to qualify for London. I have him defeating Zverev in round 2, and then doing the same over Tsonga, who should beat Florian Mayer and Janko Tipsarevic or Philipp Kohlschreiber. Tsonga is playing for the first time since the US Open, while neither Tipsarevic or Kohlschreiber are playing their best.
Wawrinka’s Quarter:
Stan Wawrinka will face Federico Delbonis or a qualifier, with Carreno Busta likely to make round 3 as long as he beats Simon. Pablo Cuevas or Di Wu are not as good on hard courts. Wawrinka should ease his way into the 4th round.
Milos Raonic suffered an ankle injury in Beijing, and barring a shocking recovery, if he plays on I still think he’ll lose to a struggling Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, presuming GGL extends his winning streak over Paolo Lorenzi. Ferrer should dispatch Jack Sock, along with Lopez, then GGL (or Raonic) to win this section.
Murray’s Quarter:
Andy Murray will face Steve Johnson or Martin Klizan in his first match, Lucas Pouille looks to be the toughest competition in his section and would love a crack at Murray in round 3. The young Frenchman will need to beat Fernando Verdasco, and a qualifier or Nicolas Almagro to get that far. Murray is in the Beijing final currently and his form looks good enough to beat Johnson, and then Pouille in round 3. Neither Spaniard in this section is playing well.
Gael Monfils will face Kevin Anderson or Chinese wild card Zhe Li, he should win that match over Anderson before facing Del Potro in round 3. Joao Sousa or Benoit Paire are also here, Paire has been tanking this Fall while Sousa reached the Tokyo quarters. I see Del Potro defeating Monfils to post another solid ATP run. Monfils may be tired after reaching the semis in Tokyo.
Dark Horse: Alexander Zverev
Zverev could reach the quarterfinals and face off with Nadal if he can upset Cilic and Tsonga in ensuing matches. The young German is has risen to great heights this year and continues to improve with every match. He is a future top 10 player, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready to make a run in Shanghai.
Predictions
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Berdych
Cilic d. Nadal
Wawrinka d. Ferrer
Del Potro d. Murray
Djokovic and Wawrinka should be favorites to reach the semis, Del Potro beat Murray in the Davis Cup and given the fatigue factor I see him making another Semi. Nadal was shaky in Beijing, and Cilic could really use a run to the semis for his ranking points so I see him upsetting Rafa.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Cilic
Del Potro d. Wawrinka
I’m bullish on Del Potro despite Stan winning their US Open match, while Djokovic should reach this final.
Final:
Djokovic d. Del Potro
Djokovic would be troubled by Wawrinka, but I still think he’s a more consistent returner than Del Potro and can find a way to win.
2016 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The field at the 2016 Western and Southern Open is still somewhat up in the air due to the Olympic games finishing up, but it’s a Masters 1000 event, and the final big tune up for most ATP players before the 2016 US Open. Here is a preview, with predictions.
Western & Southern Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, OH, USA
August 14-21, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,362,385
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (2)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Rafael Nadal (5)
4: Milos Raonic (6)
5: Kei Nishikori (7)
6: Tomas Berdych (8)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
8: Dominic Thiem (10)
I honestly don’t expect Andy Murray to play here, given he’s in the Olympic final down in Rio. Djokovic, and of course Federer are also absent here, as Novak struggled in Rio and needed a break. American Jack Sock is the only other notable player missing from the draw. We could also see Nadal and Nishikori skip because they are contesting the Bronze medal match at the Olympics.
Both hard court matches between this pair have been close. Dolgo has lost four straight and has had a miserable summer. Anderson has lost a pair of matches in his last two touranaments and has had a horrible season while struggling to stay healthy. Anderson is the favorite, and with both players slumping before the US Open, they badly need a win.
(9)Gael Monfils vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Monfils is 2-1 in the h2h against PCB and he’s a remarkable 12-2 since Wimbledon, all on hard courts. The Frenchman is a US Open dark horse, and he narrowly lost out at the medal round in the Olympics. PCB showed surprising form, reaching the semis in Cabo on hard courts, and could give Monfils a bit of a test in the opening round.
(14)Nick Kyrgios vs. Lucas Pouille
The Atlanta champion Kyrgios should serve his way past fellow young gun Pouille, but Pouille is steadier than Kyrgios, and has had a great season in his own right. These young talents are likely to face off for years to come, and this could be a great match.
Opelka reached the semis in Atlanta on US soil, and also won a round in Cabo. He’s burst onto the scene, with a game that matches fellow tall players John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic most notably. This young American is looking to continue his momentum on the ATP level against the veteran Frenchman Chardy who has lost three straight and hasn’t been healthy recently. An upset looks to be in the cards.
Gilles Simon vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Simon won their first four matches, but Dimitrov has won two of the last three, which all took place this season. Dimitrov was bounced early in the Olympics, but he did reach the quarters in Toronto and has shown spotty form. The Bulgarian is more talented than Simon, but Simon is more consistent. It’s a match that is tough to predict, but I give Dimitrov a slight edge.
Murray’s section:
Andy Murray has won Cincy twice, and as mentioned, I could very well see him being replaced by a lucky loser. His first opponent will be either Juan Monaco, or more likely the red hot Cabo champion Ivo Karlovic. The big serving Karlovic has been playing great, and has two ATP titles this summer. Presuming he’s not too fatigued, I’m going with an upset and having him knock off Murray if he plays, simply due to the Rio hangover factor. The Anderson/Dolgo winner is struggling, which means Richard Gasquet should probably win his first two matches since Wimbledon (he opens against a qualifier) to reach the third round and setup a match with Karlovic or Murray that he has a good shot at winning. Presuming he’s fit, I have Karlovic getting past Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori reached the Bronze medal match in Rio and may withdrawal as well, he’d open with Taylor Fritz or a qualifier, and I have David Goffin emerging from his section to reach the quarters. Goffin will face Janko Tipsarevic if he plays, Tipsarevic comes off a strong challenger showing across the world in China. Joao Sousa or Bernard Tomic will follow for Goffin, both are struggling. Goffin won a pair of matches in the Olympics and should get past Sousa. I have Fritz reaching round 3, because I’m unsure what is going to happen with Nishikori.
Raonic’s section:
Milos Raonic should benefit from the top half of the draw opening up because of the Olympics. The Canadian #1 skipped Rio, and should be able to get past John Isner or Fabio Fognini, and then Roberto Bautista Agut or Alex Zverev to reach the quarters. Raonic lost in the quarters in Toronto, and he’d like to do better than that this tournament. Isner reached the final in Atlanta, but Raonic plays the same game at a higher level. RBA has been consistently solid, and he reached the quarters in Rio, I have Zverev advancing because he should be fresher though. The German faces a qualifier while RBA faces serve and volley expert Nicolas Mahut.
Monfils should dominate his section and reach the quarters, presuming he’s healthy. That would setup a Toronto rematch with Raonic most likely. After round 1, the Frenchman would face either Marcos Baghdatis or Vasek Pospisil, with Dominic Thiem likely to follow in round 3, as long as Thiem beats a qualifier. The Austrian hasn’t been healthy recently as his body has been breaking down after a grueling schedule. Monfils thus has the edge. He dispatched Pospisil in Rio.
Nadal’s section:
If Rafael Nadal plays after a grueling run in both singles and doubles in Rio, he’d face Pablo Cuevas or Sam Querrey in his first match. Given he was still taking it easy on his wrist prior to Rio, I’m relatively confident he’ll withdrawal after the Bronze medal match, but if he plays, he should lose to Nick Kyrgios round 3, if Querrey doesn’t knock him off. Borna Coric and Benoit Paire are also in this section. The young gun Coric would love to challenge Kyrgios but I don’t see him doing that with his poor recent form, while the erratic Paire was kicked off the French Olympic team for bad behavior. Querrey also hasn’t been playing well, meaning Kyrgios is the clear favorite.
I’d be surprised if a fresh Tomas Berdych can’t do something with his open section. Berdych gets a qualifier or Marcel Granollers first up, with most likely Marin Cilic to follow in round 3, presuming Cilic beats Viktor Troicki and the winner of Fernando Verdasco/Albert Ramos. Troicki has been in miserable form, but he’s won five straight against Cilic, who has been on and off this season. Verdasco simply isn’t as good as Cilic these days, and thus I have it Berdych over Cilic for the quarterfinal spot. The h2h is 6-4 in favor of the Czech.
Wawrinka’s section:
Stan Wawrinka reached the semis in Toronto, and despite it not being a standout year for him, he stands alone for Swiss tennis right now with Federer out, and he should dispatch Jared Donaldson/Nicolas Almagro, and Feliciano Lopez (or a qualifier), or the Dimitrov/Simon winner to reach the quarters. I have Dimitrov getting past a likely fatigued Lopez, who reached the finals in Cabo, to reach round 3. Wawrinka should power past him at that stage.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Opelka or Chardy, followed by most likely a struggling David Ferrer in round 3. I have Steve Johnson beating Federico Delbonis, and then upsetting Ferrer, after Ferrer beats Julien Benneteau, to reach the third round however. Ferrer has been in terrible form in recent weeks. The Olympic quarterfinalist Johnson is playing on home soil, is solid on hard courts, and faces a Ferrer and Tsonga who are struggling right now. Although he’s not the favorite, I have him reaching the quarters. He’s beaten Tsonga before.
Dark Horses: Ivo Karlovic and Steve Johnson
Karlovic is always dangerous with his serve, and he’s found form at the right time. If the veteran gets a fast court to play on, he could go as far as the semifinals. Johnson had a great run in the Olympics, and I have him breaking through to a Masters quarterfinal opposite Wawrinka.
Predictions
Quarters Goffin d. Karlovic
Monfils d. Raonic
Kyrgios d. Berdych
Wawrinka d. Johnson
Goffin and Karlovic have never played, however Goffin has had a solid season and his consistency in the Masters tournaments should be rewarded with another semifinal. Monfils beat Raonic in Toronto, Kyrgios is in better form than Berdych, and Wawrinka should be the strongest player in his half. After losing to Berdych at the AO early this year, Kyrgios has dominated him twice on hard courts.
Semis Monfils d. Goffin
Wawrinka d. Kyrgios
Monfils is a clear favorite vs. Goffin given the h2h, Wawrinka and Kyrgios have split meetings in their careers, however I give Wawrinka the consistency edge.
These veterans haven’t met since 2011, and much has changed since then. Monfils is playing some of the best tennis of his career, and despite having never won a title of this stature, he’s playing like he can win one in recent weeks.
2016 ATP Rogers Cup Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The summer hard court season will kick into high gear with the 2016 Rogers Cup ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, as many ATP players make their final preparations for the Olympic games in Rio that are coming up in August. Here is a preview and predictions.
Rogers Cup
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
July 25-July 31, 2016
Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $4,089,740
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Stan Wawrinka (5)
3: Kei Nishikori (6)
4: Milos Raonic (7)
5: Tomas Berdych (8)
6: Dominic Thiem (9)
7: David Goffin (11)
8: Marin Cilic (12)
Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer, and a host of other top 30 players are skipping Toronto this year, making this one of the weaker Masters 1000 fields, while also creating more opportunities for those in the top 50 who are playing.
A first time meeting between this fan favorite pairing. Paire should prevail, but Stepanek is a difficult opponent to defeat when he rushes the net well, and Paire is dependent on his backhand clicking to win matches.
Ivo Karlovic vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz looked a bit overwhelmed and overmatched in D.C., it won’t get any easier against the big serving Karlovic in Toronto. Ivo is the heavy favorite, but it will be interesting to see if the young Fritz can fight hard and show some bounce back in this match.
(11)Nick Kyrgios vs. (WC)Denis Shapovalov
Kyrgios is far and above better than the young Wimbledon junior champ Shapovalov in this one, but the Canadian will have home support, and both guys play aggressive battlers tennis. If Kyrgios loses the plot, Shapovalov has the strokes, especially with his one handed backhand, to notch an upset, however Kyrgios serve should dominate play. Expect to see more of Denis in the years to come.
Both players are veterans in poor form who badly need a win, and with Anderson’s penchant for playing (and as of recently losing..) tiebreaks, expect a close battle that is likely to go to three sets. Anderson gets a lot of points this time of year, but if his poor play continues he’s going to drop out of the top 50 sooner than you’d expect. The h2h is tied 1-1.
Donald Young vs. Alex Dolgopolov
Young found some decent form as of late and he hasn’t lost his opening match at a tournament since Roland Garros. Dolgopolov is a tricky shotmaker who could dominate Young in this one, or show signs of weakness and give the American an opening. At a very minimum these two will battle and hit some great shots from the baseline.
Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the Rogers Cup since 2012, but with all of the recent champions absent this year he’s the favorite to improve on his 46-4 record on the season and take home the title. He should ease past Newport finalist Gilles Muller (who opens with a struggling Dmitry Tursunov), then defeat most likely Washington quarterfinalist Benoit Paire in round 3. Paire opens with Stepanek with either Peter Polansky or Tim Smyczek to follow. He’s unpredictable, but he’s likely to win a pair of matches, then bow out meekly to Djokovic.
John Isner and Tomas Berdych look set to meet in the third round for the right to face Djokovic in the quarters, Isner fell in the quarterfinals of Washington, but his form should still be good enough to dispatch Dudi Sela and either Andrey Kuznetsov or in-form qualifier Ryan Harrison to reach round 3. Wimbledon semifinalist Berdych will face either Borna Coric or Ivan Dodig in his second round match, Coric is a solid young player, but didn’t play well enough in D.C. to suggest he will upset Berdych. Berdych over Isner is my pick, given Berdych’s power game should edge Isner matchup wise, although it will be close and could go either way.
Milos Raonic is set for a tricky second round match against Washington semifinalist Alexander Zverev, who is rising quickly up the ranks on all surfaces. Zverev needs only to defeat Rendy Lu in round 1. The home hero Canadian should be bailed out by crowd support and his big serve to prevail however, and likewise Steve Johnson is a difficult opponent in the third round, but Raonic is the favorite to prevail. Johnson knocked off John Isner in Washington and reached the semifinals, showing he can deal with big servers. He’s in great form and should defeat Umag champion Fabio Fognini, and either Jared Donaldson or John Millman to reach round 3. A spot in the quarterfinals would earn Raonic his 20th hard court win of the season.
The fates of Gael Monfils and Sam Querrey are somewhat up in the air, while David Goffin is the player that gets a bye. Goffin has a pair of semifinals in the hard court Masters this year and would face the Wimbledon and Washington quarterfinalist Querrey in round 2, presuming Sam dispatches Frank Dancevic. Querrey is playing some of the best tennis he’s ever played, and his power could be too much for Goffin. They met in Montreal last year and Goffin advanced in a close straight setter. Goffin is my pick though, as he’s proven his mettle in Masters tournaments this season, and likely has the clutch factor.
The Washington champion Monfils should defeat Joao Sousa and then Jeremy Chardy or Vasek Pospisil, both of whom are struggling in recent months. Fatigue could play a factor for Monfils, but he’s playing so well right now I have to pick him over Goffin for the quarterfinals. His movement and serve were exceptional in Washington, while Goffin hasn’t played a match in weeks.
Nishikori’s quarter:
Kei Nishikori and young Frenchman Lucas Pouille look set to do battle in round 3 as Kei would be bidding for 40 match wins on the season. Federico Delbonis or Dennis Novikov should provide little resistance for the efficient Nishikori while the Wimbledon quarterfinalist Pouille faces qualifier Emilio Gomez with Ernests Gulbis or serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram to follow. This smooth path for Pouille will abruptly end against Nishikori, and although the Frenchman is a great young player, on hard court Nishikori should have the shots he needs to advance.
The Kyrgios/Shapovalov winner will face either Yuichi Sugita or a continually struggling Grigor Dimitrov in round 2, for the right to face most likely Marin Cilic in round 3, although Washington finalist Ivo Karlovic, or Fritz are also possible opponents. Karlovic has been dominant on serve in recent weeks, but fatigue will likely catch up to him at his age, while Cilic was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and has a great opportunity in this Masters tournament with some of the big names absent. Cilic’s power should get him past Karlovic, and Kyrgios, who is good enough to defeat Dimitrov, but likely below Cilic’s level, despite Kyrgios win in Marseille this year indoors.
Wawrinka’s quarter:
Stan Wawrinka looks set to face Jack Sock in the third round, presuming Sock defeats struggling fellow American Denis Kudla and the Young/Dolgopolov winner, a tricky but favorable prospect. Wawrinka is 14-3 on the season on hard court, and either Mikhail Youzhny or Stephane Robert are unlikely to provide much resistance in round 2, although a match with Youzhny would treat fans to a battle of great one handed backhanders. Sock was a quarterfinalist in Washington, and I wouldn’t put an upset of Wawrinka past him, but Stan is the favorite in his section with Dolgopolov serving as a bit of a dark horse. Sock’s great forehand will clash with Wawrinka’s great backhand.
Dominic Thiem crashed out of Kitzbuhel, a home tournament for him, in singles, and he has a tough round 2 match on tap with Troicki/Anderson with the winner set to face Bernard Tomic, presuming a streaky Bernie beats qualifier Alejandro Gonzalez, and either Kyle Edmund or wild card Steve Diez. Thiem is 14-5 on hard courts on the season, and he’s played a brutal schedule that may have left him a bit winded recently. With neither Troicki nor Anderson playing well, Thiem over Troicki is my pick, and then Thiem over Tomic, although Bernie could really use a confidence boosting upset on hard court such as that. Thiem beat Tomic earlier this season in Acapulco.
Querrey will need to upset Goffin, and Monfils to reach the quarters, but if he does, even Milos Raonic should be on alert. The American is playing freely right now, and that serious but relaxed attitude is doing his game wonders. Karlovic is unbreakable on serve right now, fatigue likely catches up with him but he could defeat anyone in the draw right now if he can win tiebreaks, and he could reach the quarters.
Predictions
Quarters: Djokovic d. Berdych
Raonic d. Monfils
Cilic d. Nishikori
Thiem d. Wawrinka
Djokovic, despite his shock loss at Wimbledon, is far and above better than Berdych, Raonic vs. Monfils is a tough match to predict, but given the fatigue factor, Raonic likely edges Monfils in a close one. Nishikori could have a better tournament than the quarterfinals, but Cilic should be hungry, and his power likely gives him the edge. Thiem vs. Wawrinka is a battle of one-handers, Wawrinka hasn’t been super impressive this year, and Thiem will look to continue to make his move into the ATP’s elite with some of the other big names absent this tournament.
Semis: Djokovic d. Raonic
Thiem d. Cilic
It’s a bold and gutsy move to go with Thiem in the final, but the Rogers Cup looks likely to produce a few surprises. Djokovic should break Canadian hearts and defeat Raonic with his superior return game given their result this year in the IW final.
Final: Djokovic d. Thiem
In ATP Masters 1000’s right now I can’t go against Djokovic, he’s simply the best player in the game right now, and in best of 3 there is little margin of error for his opponents to defeat him unless he has a bad day, and that’s rare for him.
2016 ATP Rome Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Rome is the final Masters stop on the ATP tour before Roland Garros 2016, as most of the top players will travel to partake in tennis, Italian style.
Internazionali BNL D’Italia
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Rome, Italy
May 8-15, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €3,748,925
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Kei Nisihkori (6)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
8: Tomas Berdych (8)
Marin Cilic, John Isner, and Gilles Simon are the only notables missing from this year’s ATP Rome tournament.
Zverev slipped past Dimitrov in Indian Wells this year, and they have a split 1-1 h2h. This will be the first meeting on clay between the young gun German, and the Bulgarian trying to get back to the top of his game. Zverev comes off the semis in Munich, and I have him as the favorite over the Istanbul finalist Dimitrov. Dimitrov exited early in Madrid, and consistency has not been his strength.
(13)Dominic Thiem vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
Thiem and Dolgo have a split h2h, with Thiem likely to have the advantage on clay. Dolgopolov is 3-2 on clay this year, winning the matches he should based on ranking. Thiem was a finalist in Munich, but was promptly upset by Del Potro in Madrid. He should be good to go for Rome success though.
Albert Ramos vs. Sam Querrey
Ramos has a pair of wins over Querrey, and is a mediocre 8-9 on clay this year, even though it’s his best surface. He’s 3-2 over his last five matches on clay. Querrey is 4-2 on clay over his last two tournaments, and won a pair of matches on clay, both of which were upsets. Those upset wins inspired a lot of talk in the tennis world about improved American results on clay, and we’ll see if Querrey can continue the success.
Mayer lost his opening match in Madrid, while Goffin has been rather poor this year on clay, going 3-3. Goffin should be far better based on ranking and skill, but Mayer is credible on clay and Goffin could be vulnerable to continually struggling and getting knocked off again.
Djokovic’s quarter:
The four-time and defending Rome champion Novak Djokovic is in the Madrid final this week, and he’ll be looking for the Madrid/Rome Masters double. Novak will start with a qualifier, and either Gael Monfils or Pablo Cuevas is his likely third round opponent. Monfils opens with a struggling Thomaz Bellucci, while Cuevas faces Nicolas Mahut. Cuevas just slipped past Monfils in a third set tiebreak in Madrid, going on to lose in the third round. I have him repeating that feat and falling to Djokovic in round 3 in Rome.
Madrid semifinalist and seven time Rome champion Rafael Nadal is likely to face Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Nadal will need to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber (or a qualifier), and either Milos Raonic or Nick Kyrgios to get that far though. Nadal has a pair of clay titles this spring, before losing to Andy Murray in Madrid. Kohlschreiber lost to Nadal in Barcelona, and won Munich. The match between Kyrgios and Raonic should feature some fierce power hitting in the second round. Raonic has to beat Italian Marco Cecchinato for the second time in recent weeks. He was a quarterfinalist in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, losing to top 3 players both times. Kyrgios is 5-2 on clay as of late and reached the quarters in Madrid. He opens with wild card Salvatore Caruso, a little known 23 year old. Kyrgios has won his last two meetings against Raonic, after losing the first two, including a match on clay. It’s a tough match to pick, but I have Raonic slipping past Kyrgios due to his consistency. Nadal should beat Raonic (or Kyrgios) given it’s clay.
Federer’s Quarter:
Roger Federer has four career finals, but no career titles in Rome. After pulling out of Madrid, he’s unlikely to be much of a factor in this tournament, and in fact I have Zverev upsetting him to reach the third round, after Zverev defeats Dimitrov. If it’s not Zverev, Dominic Thiem should defeat Federer, after beating Dolgopolov, and Joao Sousa. Sousa was a quarterfinalist in Madrid and should defeat 20 year old wild card Lorenzo Sonego, who is making his ATP debut. Thiem beat Zverev in Munich.
Madrid semifinalist and Barcelona finalist Kei Nishikori is the favorite to reach the quarters in this section as well. He should have no issues defeating either Viktor Troicki or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili in round 2, and then Richard Gasquet once again in round 3, just as he did in straight sets in Madrid. Gasquet should beat Julien Benneteau, and Andreas Seppi/Vasek Pospisil given the difference in ranking and form on this surface.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka is just 2-2 on clay this season, and lost his opening match in Madrid. At this rate he’s going to struggle to remain a top 5 player. He should defeat his friend Benoit Paire in his first match though, presuming Paire defeats Bernard Tomic, and adds to the Australian’s freefall in recent weeks. Paire has a couple of clay semifinals in recent weeks, but lost his opening match in Madrid. The winner of Paire/Wawrinka should decide the quarter, as Feliciano Lopez/Steve Johnson/Juan Monaco are unlikely to stop them in the third round. Lopez has never defeated Kevin Anderson (0-3), but Anderson has been in horrible form, while Lopez is 2-3 over his last five matches. Lopez should beat Anderson, then Monaco, before losing to Wawrinka.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer may duel for a quarterfinal spot as well, if Italian favorite Fabio Fognini doesn’t make a run himself in Rome. Tsonga is 5-4 on clay this season, and lost his second match in Madrid. Ivo Karlovic opens with a qualifier and the winner will face Tsonga round 2. Ferrer opens with a qualifier as well, while Fognini will face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, before Ferrer. Ferrer lost in the third round of Madrid, while Fognini was a semifinalist in Munich before losing round 2 in Madrid. I have Ferrer slipping past Fognini given the 9-0 h2h. Ferrer has two clay wins over Tsonga, but I have Tsonga winning because Ferrer doesn’t seem to be the same player he was at this point.
Murray’s Quarter
The current Madrid finalist Andy Murray should continue his recent run of form with a victory over Borna Coric/qualifier, and then a third round win over Roberto Bautista Agut. Murray isn’t in an overly difficult section, as RBA opens with Paolo Lorenzi, with Jeremy Chardy/qualifier to follow. RBA has third round results in both Monte Carlo, and Madrid, this year on clay. He’s the favorite of the players who could face Murray round 3.
Tomas Berdych is the favorite to face Murray in the quarters, the Czech needs only to defeat Querrey/Ramos and then Goffin/Mayer or Jack Sock/Guido Pella to get that far. Sock’s 5-2 record on clay as of late should move to 6-2 with a solid win over Pella. I then have Sock upsetting Goffin, before falling to Berdych in round 3. Berdych is 2-0 against Sock.
I’m not going to count Kyrgios as a dark horse given what a strong player he’s recognized as these days, seeding aside. Zverev needs to upset Dimitrov, Federer, and Thiem, but he could emerge as an unlikely quarterfinalist from the top half.
Paire has a win over Wawrinka this year, though Wawrinka dominates the h2h overall over his good friend. With Wawrinka slumping, and Paire capable of solid play on clay, we could see an upset that ends up with Paire in the quarterfinals or better.
Predictions
Quarterfinals Djokovic d. Nadal
Nishikori d. Thiem
Tsonga d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Berdych
Djokovic and Nishikori are a cut above the competition right now, Wawrinka has a good record against Tsonga on clay, but he’s been struggling as of late, Murray just steamrolled Berdych in Madrid.
Semifinals Djokovic d. Nishikori
Murray d. Tsonga
Look for a reprisal of the Madrid final in Rome, Murray is the best player in the bottom half, and Djokovic should beat Nishikori again in the top half to reach the final.
2016 ATP Madrid Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby and Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
It’s time for the second clay court masters tournament of the season, as most of the world’s top players will descend on the capital of Spain to duel in the magic box. Tennis Atlantic is excited to once again have credentialed coverage from the Mutua Madrid Open, as Niall Clarke will be providing you with reports on the day’s matchplay. Here is a preview and prediction for the ATP side of the tournament.
Mutua Madrid Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Madrid, Spain
May 1-8, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €4,771,360
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Kei Nishikori (6)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
8: Tomas Berdych (8)
Marin Cilic, John Isner, young gun Alexander Zverev, and Martin Klizan are the only notable players missing from the tournament. Jiri Vesely, who recently stunned Novak Djokovic on clay in Monte Carlo, is also absent.
Madrid features some great first round matchups, and this is certainly one of them. The veteran Spaniard Almagro just won the title in Estoril, and is clearly comfortable both on clay, and in Madrid. He’s experiencing a bit of a career resurgence right now, and would like to keep the momentum going. Borna Coric was a quarterfinalist in Estoril, and also a finalist in Casablanca, as the Croatian young gun continues to steadily improve his standing on the ATP tour.
Given the fatigue factor, I favor Coric to win this, as Almagro is coming off of a three set final.
Leonardo Mayer vs. Feliciano Lopez
Mayer beat Lopez in Madrid last year, and he comes off the quarters in Estoril. Lopez has a semifinal in Houston, and won a round in Barcelona, so while he’s no clay court specialist, he is playing at a home tournament, and has a bit of momentum working in his favor. This should be a close match, as the baseliner Mayer will play a more traditional clay court game, while Lopez will look to be aggressive. This one could go either way, but I narrowly favor Lopez.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Pablo Cuevas
Kohlschreiber is 32, and 7-1 in his last two tournaments, thus his clay court form is great, but he should be on upset alert given the fatigue factor, against an accomplished clay courter in Cuevas. This is a tough first round match for the Munich champion, as Cuevas keeps the ball in play, and is 2-2 in his last four clay court matches, after a strong Golden Swing earlier this season. Cuevas should grind Kohlschreiber down, and pull an upset.
David Goffin drew the toughest qualifier, as Lucas Pouille is nearly into the top 50 at 22, and beat him in Brisbane this year in a huge upset. Pouille is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, and reached a clay court final in Bucharest recently. He’s rapidly improving his game that has plenty of weapons, while Goffin has limped to a disappointing 3-2 record on clay this Spring, and does not appear to be dialed in thus far on the surface.
Goffin was once in great form, and he could still win this match, but a Pouille win wouldn’t surprise me, and this match should feature incredible ball striking.
(14)Dominic Thiem vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
The Munich finalist Thiem is 5-2 on spring clay thus far, and looks to be playing well. I have him making a deep run here, and this match against Del Potro could turn into a mere formality. However, he could be suffering from fatigue after playing the Munich final, and the big hitting Del Potro is slowly finding form. Del Potro won a pair of matches in Munich, and is at least a credible ATP level player right now. The style contrast will be interesting.
Houston finalist Jack Sock is making his debut this season on European clay. Unlike many of the American players, he can play well on the surface, and certainly has a chance to win this match against Paire. The Frenchman has made consecutive semifinals in Barcelona, and Estoril, he’s inconsistent usually, but he’s found form as of late.
Sock will contest this match hard, but I have Paire better on clay, and advancing.
(WC)Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Grigor Dimitrov
A hobbled Grigor Dimitrov suffered defeat in the ATP Istanbul final, and appeared to be extremely upset and frustrated with himself. The Bulgarian #1 is 3-0 against PCB though, and the Spaniard is coming off of his own ATP final in Estoril. PCB played well in Estoril, scoring four wins, three of which came over solid ATP players, and he also has a clay quarterfinal in Casablanca this year.
Dimitrov is 4-2 on spring clay, and should be the favorite, but I’m not sure where his head will be for this match.
Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the Madrid Masters since 2011, and he suffered his first clay loss of the season to Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo. That was a stunning defeat, but you have to assume the world #1 will recover, and go relatively far in Madrid, if not win the tournament. Djokovic will open with the Almagro/Coric winner, Coric could give him a good test, but he should win that match and then defeat Roberto Bautista Agut to reach the quarters. The Spaniard opens with qualifier Santiago Giraldo with either Mayer or Lopez to follow. RBA is normally solid on clay though he lost in Barcelona, thus he’s the favorite for a third round spot.
Milos Raonic hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals in a tournament this season, he should be able to continue that streak with wins over Thomaz Bellucci, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, though Tsonga is by far the toughest opponent of that group. Bellucci has been struggling mightily, Dolgopolov just beat Steve Johnson in a round 1 three setter and is unpredictable, coming off a quarterfinal in Barcelona. Tsonga was a semifinalist in Monte Carlo, where he beat Roger Federer, and he should be able to get past Istanbul quarterfinalist Albert Ramos (or Jeremy Chardy), in round 2.
Raonic beat Tsonga in 2014 on clay, and his strong and consistent play is why I have him reaching the quarters.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka has been in poor form in recent months, most recently dropping a quarterfinal match in Monte Carlo. However, he’s a solid clay court player and a former Madrid finalist. One of the most anticipated matches of round 2 should be Wawrinka against Nick Kyrgios. Kyrgios has reached consecutive semifinals, including on clay in Estoril. He’ll need to defeat Bucharest quarterfinalist Guido Pella first. Wawrinka and Kyrgios have a heated rivalry, though they have only met three times, given this is clay, I give Wawrinka a slight edge to advance, but wouldn’t be surprised if Kyrgios won.
Pablo Cuevas is my dark horse pick to reach the third round, after Kohlschreiber, he’s likely to face Gael Monfils. Monfils has been in great form and reached the final in Monte Carlo, but he has was injured and had to withdrawal from Munich. His opening round opponent Kevin Anderson has been injured himself, and thus he should win that match, but I don’t trust Monfils to consistently be able to post solid performances yet, and Cuevas excels at keeping the ball in play and grinding through matches. Wawrinka or Kyrgios should defeat Cuevas in round three though, Monfils is a bit of a wild card in this section too, full of talented, but wildly varying performers.
Kei Nishikori, a finalist in Barcelona, and a former finalist in Madrid, should be the favorite to win this quarter. Nishikori does not have an easy draw, but he’s reached consecutive ATP finals, demonstrating the tremendous form he’s riding right now. Barcelona quarterfinalist and Munich semifinalist Fabio Fognini is also playing well, and he should dispatch a struggling Bernard Tomic in round 1. Tomic has lost three straight.
Richard Gasquet is set to face Nishikori in round 3, Gasquet opens with qualifier Roberto Carballes Baena, with Fernando Verdasco to follow. Verdasco just beat Juan Monaco in round 1 and took the title in Bucharest. The veteran Spaniard is playing at home, and is in form, while Gasquet isn’t in great form, but his superior talent should get him through the first two rounds, before falling to Nishikori. Gasquet is 6-0 against Nishikori but has never faced him on clay.
Federer’s Quarter
Roger Federer is a three time champion in Madrid, and came off the Monte Carlo quarterfinals after returning from injury. Federer is perhaps the highest seed most likely to exit before the quarterfinals as I have him losing to the talented, and in-form Dominic Thiem. Federer will open with either Joao Sousa or Nicolas Mahut, both players are struggling, and that means Federer should win with ease. Thiem will face the Sock/Paire winner after Del Potro, he could lose that match if he’s fatigued, but his great form has me picking him to go as far as the quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal has four career titles in Madrid, and is defending finals points here as well. He should easily defeat either Andrey Kuznetsov or Viktor Troicki, most likely Kuznetsov as he comes off a quarterfinal in Barcelona. Nadal against Goffin is my pick for the third round. After Pouille, Goffin will face Pierre-Hugues Herbert, or Sam Querrey in round 2. The qualifier Herbert has been in great form (qualified for all Masters singles draws this season), particularly in doubles, and he could spring a surprise. Querrey reached the quarterfinals in Houston, but is usually poor on clay. Nadal should demolish Goffin or Pouille to reach the quarters.
Murray’s Quarter
Andy Murray is the defending champion, and he has a rather easy draw to get back to the quarterfinals at least. The weakest section of the draw features Vasek Pospisil or qualifier Radek Stepanek as Murray’s first opponent, with most likely Gilles Simon to feature in round 3, though Simon has to defeat veteran Marcos Baghdatis and PCB/Dimitrov first. Simon has never played Baghdatis on clay, and he’s 3-2 in his last five matches on the surface. Baghdatis is normally poor on clay. PCB is an interesting dark horse here, but I presume fatigue will end his march. Dimitrov’s lack of focus should help Simon advance, before falling to Murray, who reached the semis in Monte Carlo, his only stint on clay this season.
Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer are the top seeds in the competitive section above Murray. Berdych is a former Madrid finalist, while Ferrer was twice a semifinalist at home in Spain. It’ll be Berdych against either qualifier Denis Istomin, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili in round 2, while Ferrer opens with countryman Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Ferrer won both meetings against GGL last year in dominating fashion, GGL has a quarterfinal and a semifinal in recent weeks on clay, and Ferrer has been struggling, but the talent gap is still there. Ferrer against qualifier Denis Kudla is my pick for round 2, Kudla has a recent challenger semi on clay, while Ivo Karlovic snapped a long losing streak to reach the semis in Istanbul in improbable fashion. The veteran likely loses in the opening round this time.
Ferrer and Berdych have a competitive h2h, Berdych did lose in the opening round of Monte Carlo, but I have a feeling he’ll rebound and do well in Madrid with his power game.
Dark Horse: Pablo Cuevas and Lucas Pouille
If you’re looking for unseeded players in the top and bottom half who might make a splash, look no farther than Cuevas, who should face opponents at less than 100% until he faces Wawrinka/Kyrgios round 3, and Pouille, who has to defeat Goffin, and Herbert/Querrey to setup an interesting third round match with Nadal. Nadal and Wawrinka/Kyrgios should both prevail, stopping either player from reaching the second week, but they are both clay court threats.
Predictions
Quarters Djokovic d. Raonic
Nishikori d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Thiem
Murray d. Berdych
On clay, Djokovic, and Nadal are both clear favorites, though Thiem has a win over Nadal this year, Rafa got him back in Monte Carlo. Nishikori is in better form than Wawrinka, and Murray should have the edge over Berdych given the surface and stage.
Semis Djokovic d. Nishikori
Nadal d. Murray
Nishikori seems to lack the staying power to compete with Djokovic from the baseline, while Nadal is a cut above Murray on clay right now, as he demonstrated in the Monte Carlo semi.
Final Djokovic d. Nadal
A possible preview to the French Open “final” before the final, Djokovic has won six straight against Rafa, including two matches this year, and most of their contests haven’t even been close. Nadal has won two straight tournaments on clay (Monte Carlo and Barcelona), but he did so without facing Djokovic, and until he proves to me that the current Rafa can defeat the current Novak, I have to pick Djokovic to win this title.
2016 ATP Monte Carlo Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The red clay season in Europe begins with the Masters 1000 level Monte Carlo stop in the French Riveria. Here is a preview and predictions.
Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Monte Carlo, Monaco
April 10-17, 2016
Surface: clay
Prize Money: €3,748,925
Top 8 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (7)
7: David Ferrer (8)
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9)
Kei Nishikori, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, and Nick Kyrgios are the only big names missing from the MC Masters draw, note this is not a mandatory Masters tournament.
A battle of 18 year olds that should develop into a future rivalry. Zverev has thus far outpaced Rublev, developing quickly and nearing the top 50. Rublev still languishes outside the top 150, and he has considerably less ATP experience and results, he’s spent most of his time on the challenger tour. Zverev was 9-8 on clay this year, and has improved as a player this year, thus he should dispatch Rublev, but enjoy the shotmaking.
(9)Richard Gasquet vs. Nicolas Almagro
Gasquet should win his fourth straight meeting against the fellow veteran Almagro. The Frenchman is 5-2 over his last seven matches, and playing with home support should further give him a boost. Almagro has been a poor 2-4 since reaching the Buenos Aires final. The veteran Spaniard has been unable to consistently show the form that once made him a top 20 player, still this is an intriguing one handed backhand battle in round 1.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Borna Coric
Kohlschreiber defeated the young gun Coric earlier this year in Dubai, and he’s had a few weeks off since Indian Wells. Coric is currently in the Marrakech final and has demonstrated good form on clay. Given the fatigue factor, Kohli is likely the favorite, but this should be a quality contest as well.
Top Half:
The defending and two-time Monte Carlo champion Novak Djokovic will open with either Jiri Vesely or Teymuraz Gabashvili. Vesely was a semifinalist in Marrakech and with Gabashvili on a five match losing streak, I see Djokovic beating Vesely to reach round 3. In round 3, Gael Monfils is Novak’s likely opponent. The Frenchman is 7-2 over his last nine matches, and will have plenty of home support in MC. Monfils opens with serve and volleyer Gilles Muller, with an Italian to follow, either Fabio Fognini or Paolo Lorenzi. Fognini is returning from an injury, and leads the h2h with Lorenzi 4-0. Djokovic is 11-0 in ATP matches against Monfils, and given his strong recent form he should prevail again.
David Ferrer will have a tough match against the Zverev/Rublev winner, Ferrer dominated Zverev when they met on clay back in 2014, but things have changed, and with his mediocre 2-2 form over his last four matches, he should be on upset alert. Given this is clay, I do tip Ferrer into the third round though. David Goffin is set to have another good Masters tournament as well. The #11 seed opens with current Houston semifinalist Feliciano Lopez with Fernando Verdasco or current Marrakech finalist Federico Delbonis to follow. Given Lopez, and Delbonis should both be jet lagged, Goffin should defeat Verdasco. The Belgian is solid on clay, and reached consecutive semifinals in IW and Miami in recent weeks. Ferrer is 2-0 against Goffin, but given recent form, I give the Belgian the quarterfinal spot.
Roger Federer will make his long awaited return from injury, after an illness forced him out of Miami. The Swiss legend opens with either Thomaz Bellucci or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez before a likely third round meeting against solid Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut. GGL is facing a player on a five match losing streak in Bellucci. RBA opens with dirtballer Albert Ramos, with either Jeremy Chardy, or more likely Andrey Kuznetsov to follow. Kuznetsov is rapidly improving and inside the top 50 now, but RBA’s steady play should be enough to beat him. Federer is 4-0 and has never dropped a set against RBA, so thus if he’s not too rusty he should prevail.
Top French players Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gasquet appear set for a red dirt collision course in the section below Federer. Tsonga will open with Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier, while Gasquet faces either Nicolas Mahut or Lucas Pouille after facing a qualifier. The Marrakech quarterfinalist PCB could trouble a shaky Tsonga, but Jo likely prevails while Gasquet should defeat the young Pouille. Gasquet has the clay win over Tsonga and slightly better form, so he should move the h2h to 5-4 if they meet round 3.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray did not look good on spring hard courts (2-2), but he was an incredible 17-1 on clay last year and he should open his clay court campaign this year with a win over a qualifier or Guido Pella. Murray is in a very weak section where the other seed, Benoit Paire, is just 1-4 in his last five matches. Paire opens with a struggling Inigo Cervantes, while Joao Sousa should extend Ivo Karlovic’s 0-4 start in 2016, to 0-5 to setup a second round meeting. Either Paire or Sousa could prevail, but Paire has been so poor this season, I have Sousa advancing. Murray should then demolish Sousa (or Paire) to reach the quarters without much stress.
Defending finalist Tomas Berdych is likely to run into fellow big hitter Milos Raonic in round 3. Berdych opens with a qualifier or Robin Haase after going 12-4 on clay last year, and most recently reaching the quarters in Miami. Raonic has been in great form this year with a 17-3 record. He’s a credible 15-7 on clay over the last two seasons, even though it’s far from his best surface. Raonic should dominate a struggling Marco Cecchinato before running into dirtballer Pablo Cuevas in round 2. Cuevas opens with a qualifier, and he’s 11-1 with two ATP titles on clay this season. Raonic vs. Cuevas has a chance to be the best match of round 2, and I give Raonic a slight edge if he can maintain his serve and survive, even though Cuevas is a great clay court player.
Raonic just beat Berdych at IW, and they have never properly met on clay. That should also be a tough battle, but I’m a firm believer in Raonic right now and have him advancing from a difficult section.
Stan Wawrinka is struggling right now. he went 13-4 on clay last year and was the 2014 MC champion but he’s lost two straight matches since winning Dubai. The Coric/Kohlschreiber winner has the skill set to test his game, and he could suffer a third straight early loss. I can’t predict that though and thus I have him running into Gilles Simon in the third round, after the Frenchman deals with Viktor Troicki, and Grigor Dimitrov (or a qualifier). Dimitrov was 9-5 on clay last year and reached the third round in Miami. Simon is 5-0 against Troicki and made the Miami quarterfinals. He was 7-4 on clay last year. Dimitrov beat Simon in Brisbane this year, but Simon won their only match on clay and leads the overall h2h 4-1, given Dimitrov’s inconsistency this year, I have the Frenchman advancing. Wawrinka is 2-0 on clay against Simon, and though either Simon or Dimitrov should give him trouble, I have the Swiss reaching the quarters on clay.
A blockbuster third round matchup should take place between the Rolex Masters legend Rafael Nadal, who won the title seven times between 2005-2012, and the young gun Dominic Thiem, who is at his best on clay and improving quickly. Thiem was 20-6 last year on clay with three clay court titles, and is 8-1 this year with an ATP title on the surface. The Austrian #1 will open with either a qualifier or Adrian Mannarino, who is poor on clay. Nadal was unwell in Miami and exited early, he’s just 12-6 on the season and didn’t win either of his clay court tournaments. His first match could be against Lukas Rosol, or Aljaz Bedene. Thiem stunned Nadal in Buenos Aires, capturing a third set tiebreak, and as good as MC has been for the Spaniard, I have him suffering another disappointing loss, and Thiem reaching the quarterfinals.
Dark Horse: Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, and Pablo Cuevas
Two young guns, and a veteran dirtballer could surprise in MC. Zverev’s path is blocked by Ferrer and Goffin, but if he finds form he could reach the quarters. Thiem could well make the final if he slips past Nadal, Wawrinka/Simon/Dimitrov, and one of Murray/Raonic/Berdych/Cuevas. This is a great chance for him to make his first Masters final. Cuevas has to beat Raonic and Berdych, but don’t count him out for a deep run.
Predictions
Quarters Djokovic d. Goffin
Federer d. Gasquet
Thiem d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Raonic
Djokovic is 4-0 against Goffin and just beat him in Miami, Thiem has a h2h win over Wawrinka (1-1 on clay), Federer has won seven straight against Gasquet, though rust could be an issue, and Murray has won three straight against Raonic, including a clay court win. As poor as the Scot’s recent play has been, he should be a surprise semifinalist.
Semis Djokovic d. Federer
Thiem d. Murray
Nobody is stopping Djokovic, and I have Thiem as my surprise player, reaching his first Masters final this week.
Final Djokovic d. Thiem
Thiem should give it a good go if he reaches the final, but there is no one in this field except Novak Djokovic himself, that can stop Novak Djokovic. Rafa and Wawrinka are unlikely to even get the chance.
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