Stosur Hits the Big 5-0-0; McHale Rules, Rain Delay at Citi Open Steve “I never said I was a line judge” Fogleman, Tennis Atlantic
Stosur: Career Win #500
2011 US Open champion Sam Stosur reached a milestone today in her otherwise routine straight sets win over Kiki Mladenovic: The Big 5-0-0. Stosur claimed she had “no idea” that the 64 minute 2 and 2 win was a milestone until they brought out a cake on Grandstand Court.
Now I love Sam Stosur, but I don’t believe a word of it. I heard talk of her at #499 all weekend at the tournament.
That 2 & 2 match was apparently also pretty damn meaningful to Kiki Mladenovic, who was caught crying outside the media center by Ricky Dimon of TennGrand.com.
not sure what the deal is with Mladonevic but she is still just sitting there absolutely bawling her eyes out
Christina McHale has matured a great deal as a player. After a tough three set 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 win over a recently resurgent CoCo Vandeweghe, she admitted to me that was the type of match she would have lost only a year ago. Next up, McHale has a date with “L’il Troublemaker” Yulia Putintseva, the woman who only smiles while binge-watching the entire chronology of “Saw” movies.
Christina McHale (Photo: Chris Levy @Tennis_Shots
As of this moment, play has just resumed on Stadium Court after a one hour rain delay. Kei Nishikori’s match against James Duckworth, originally scheduled for not before 7:30 p.m., will not commence until at least 10:00 p.m. Meanwhile, enjoy this Kei Nishikori practice video from earlier today and we’ll wrap up tonight on the morrow.
2015 Australian Open Week 1 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 Australian Open Men’s Preview
Australian Open
Grand Slam
Melbourne, Australia
January 18-February 1, 2015
Prize Money: $40,000,000
It’s one of the more open Grand Slam draws in a while when it comes to the Men’s Aussie Open. The traditional “big four” of Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray are all competing for the title, while other names could also put up great showings including defending champion Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic. Here is a preview of all that could take place down under come Monday.
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Rafael Nadal (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Andy Murray (6)
7: Tomas Berdych (7)
8: Milos Raonic (8)
Notable players missing in the draw include US Open champion Marin Cilic, former finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, former top 10 player Tommy Haas, Juan Martin Del Potro, who came back last week but needs to rest his wrist again and pulled out of the draw, and young American Jack Sock, who are all injured.
RBA reached the round of 16 last year, his best result ever in a slam, and even with his top 15 seeding he likely won’t be pleased by his round 1 opponent Dominic Thiem. Thiem appears to be struggling with his fitness early in the season, as he was sick and lost weight in the offseason, thus RBA will be a favorite, but the young Austrian still has talent, and given RBA crashed out of Auckland with flu like symptoms, he may also not be feeling so hot himself. RBA should advance but it’s not a lock by any measure.
(12)Feliciano Lopez vs. (WC)Denis Kudla
Lopez lost his opening match in Chennai, and played poorly in both the Abu Dhabi and Kooyong Exos in preparation for the AO. He’s a top 15 seed but his form appears to be awful, and the USTA WC winner Kudla will have a chance of grabbing an upset win in this one. Lopez is the more talented player but he recently lost to lower ranked players Aljaz Bedene and Jordan Thompson, thus I’m making a gutsy pick and going with Kudla to advance. He’s 4-2 in 2015 and his form appears to be reliable enough to win this one.
One of the few R1 matches to watch that has any sort of h2h record: Querrey won a 4 setter over Pospisil on grass at Wimbledon in 2012, and Vasek is defending his best ever result in a slam, as he reached the third round here last year before injuring his back. Both players played well at times last year but only Pospisil has won a match this season, as he beat Andreas Seppi in Sydney. I give Vasek a slight edge to advance but this match is almost a pure toss-up.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Peter Gojowczyk
GGL appears to be in poor form going into this match, as he has lost a pair of matches to lower ranked players, given he slumped at the end of last season, the German Gojowczyk will have a good chance to advance. He’s a talented player who hasn’t reached his potential yet, having mostly played challenger level tennis, and I expect this one to go four or five sets as well.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Nicolas Almagro
The h2h for this matchup is split 1-1, and both times they met at the ATP level, the match went a full three sets. Nishikori is playing under the pressure of being the top Asian player in the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific while Almagro is returning from injury and still has rust. Nishikori is favored to advance and likely will, but it’s not the easiest R1 match-up for a number 5 seed in a slam and we could be looking at a four or five setter. Also watch out if this is a day match for Nishikori possibly wilting in the heat.
Victor Estrella vs. (Q)Jurgen Melzer
The almost 35 year old Estrella will face off with the 33 year old Melzer in round 1. Estrella is making his Aussie Open debut, as he reached a career high ranking inside the top 70 in 2014 and got himself into the main draw by the end of the season. Melzer once reached the second week in Melbourne but he struggled mightily last season and his ranking dropped low enough he had to qualify to get into the main draw. Both these guys are at the twilight of their careers, though Melzer has accomplished considerably more in his, and this will be a fun match to watch veterans do battle. Estrella isn’t a pushover on hard courts, but given Melzer is more talented and apparently rounding into some form, I have him winning this one.
A match between players who won ATP titles in Sydney and Auckland last week, which is quite rare in terms of occurrence, both are in great form, but given they won those titles as qualifiers, are likely very fatigued going into the AO. Vesely is a promising young gun who just broke into the top 40, while Troicki is a passionate competitor who has had a tremendous comeback. This match could be great, but at the same time, if they meet during the day in difficult conditions, I would almost expect a retirement if the match starts swinging one way or another depending on the physical condition of the players coming into the match. It’s a hard pick with all that in mind, but I feel Troicki is actually the better player right now, and I have him winning this one.
(26)Leonardo Mayer vs. (WC)John Millman
A match with great potential for an upset, Mayer is a top 30 player but he is far superior on clay than on hard courts, and though he made the semifinals in Sydney, I still think the Aussie wild card Millman will notch the upset. Millman is a talented player who is 11-1 in his last twelve tournament matches, with that lone loss coming to Roger Federer. Given this is hard courts, and Millman will have support from the home crowd, he should feed off that and use it to fuel him to a victory.
(11)Ernests Gulbis vs. (WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Gulbis has lost three straight tournament matches going back to least season and he struggled mightily in his only warm up test this year against Jiri Vesely in Auckland. He rarely plays well at the AO and he will be facing a home young gun player in Kokkinakis. The lanky Kokkinakis lost to his countryman Bernard Tomic in the second round of Brisbane in his only tournament tune up. Once again Gulbis is a top 15 seed, but upset potential exists depending on the type of form the Latvian is in. I’m not over confident in Kokkinakis but he’s due for a big win and I have him through to round 2 in my own bracket.
The only time this pair met, on clay in 2012, it went 3 sets, and though Dimitrov reached the quarters in Brisbane, he wasn’t super impressive there. Brown is an erratic player who play lights out tennis on rare occasion, and otherwise is a challenger level player, I still feel Dimitrov will win, possibly in straight sets, but I don’t feel enough people are looking at this matchup as one to watch. If Dreddy shows up playing like a human highlight reel, and Dimitrov gets off to a slow start, we could at least be looking at a four or five setter. Expect some talented shotmaking by both players here.
(25)Jeremy Chardy vs. Borna Coric
Chardy, a former quarterfinalist here, will take on the confident young gun Coric who is 1-2 in his ATP tune up matches this season, while Chardy is 2-2. Coric has a lot of talent but his pedestrian performance against clay courter Pablo Carreno Busta in Auckland demonstrates he’s far from reliable at this stage in his career, thus Chardy, the veteran Frenchman, is probably a slight favorite. This one could go either way depending on which Coric shows up, but I personally have Chardy going through to round 2.
The four time Australian Open champion Djokovic will open with an in-form Aljaz Bedene who qualified for the AO after reaching the Chennai final, then should get another easy match against Andrey Kuznetsov/Albert Ramos before a likely third round meeting with former AO semifinalist Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco, who comes off a pair of wins in the Kooyong exhibition, will need to defeat journeymen James Ward and Go Soeda/qualifier Elias Ymer to get that far. Ymer is a promising young Swede and he should beat Soeda but I don’t feel he has enough ability to beat Verdasco. Djokovic is 3-1 against Verdasco on outdoor hard courts in his career and I don’t see any particular reason why Novak won’t make the second week based upon his potential draw. Bedene is in great form but he’s played so much tennis as of late Novak should wear him down.
The RBA/Thiem winner will face Gilles Muller or Pablo Carreno Busta in round 2. The big serving Muller comes off the semis in Sydney and he’s 5-2 in 2015. With that in mind, given the surface, and RBA in questionable form coming off illness, I’m calling an upset in this section and putting Muller through to the third round. He’s had a great comeback over the past year and he’s due for a solid slam result. Muller/RBA/Thiem will face most likely John Isner in round 3. Isner has a good draw if he doesn’t lay an egg here, with qualifier Jimmy Wang, and qualifier Laurent Lokoli or Andreas Haider-Maurer on tap in the first two rounds. Isner is 3-0 in his career against Muller, with all of those wins coming on hard courts and given their similar styles of play, with Isner being better at the one two serve/return combo, the American should make the second week, even with poor history in Melbourne. If RBA were to be fit and healthy and get to the third round, I would have him beating Isner but that’s a big if.
Milos Raonic, who comes off the final in Brisbane, will be trying to break through in a slam this year, and he should at least make the second week, as his path is qualifier Ilya Marchenko, Donald Young or qualifier Tim Puetz, and one of Julian Benneteau/Benjamin Becker/Lleyton Hewitt/Ze Zhang to get to the round of 16. Raonic is 2-0 against Auckland quarterfinalist Young, while Benneteau should beat Becker, who he is 2-0 against, with Becker not having won a match in 2015. Lleyton Hewitt is struggling but he’s still a strong favorite against the Chinese wild card Zhang and given Benny won their H2H meeting last year, I expect home hero Hewitt to be ousted in round 2, and a Benneteau vs. Raonic third round match. Raonic is 3-1 in his career against Benneteau, and in good form, so he should reach the round of 16.
The Lopez/Kudla winner is slated to face Blaz Rola, or Auckland finalist Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino has been in great form in 2015, but Rola has talent and they are similar level players as a general rule. With Mannarino likely fatigued, even with Rola in poor form, I have a Kudla vs. Rola round 2 matchup, with a great opportunity for third round points for the winner. Kudla and Rola have never met, but Kudla is playing better tennis right now, so I have him into round 3 in my own bracket. Jerzy Janowicz, or Hiroki Moriya, who took Del Potro’s place in the draw as a lucky loser will face Gael Monfils or wild card Lucas Pouille in round 2. Pouille was a semifinalist in Auckland as a lucky loser while Monfils hasn’t had any match prep before the AO. I expect Pouille to be fatigued, but he did play some great tennis in Auckland, so perhaps that match will stretch out, that said I have Monfils over Janowicz in round 2. Monfils beat JJ last year, and I feel that style matchup favors the acrobatic Frenchman, after that Monfils should beat Kudla/Rola or someone else in round 3 to reach the round of 16 from this section. Janowicz has been decent this year, but not good enough to get past round 2.
The defending champion Stan the man will face Marsel Ilhan in his first match on his quest to repeat as the champion. After Ilhan it will be qualifier Marius Copil or Pablo Andujar, and then most likely Jarkko Nieminen or a qualifier in round 3, in what is very weak early draw for Wawrinka, as he should face little in the way of tough competition. Nieminen, who qualified in Sydney, will need to dispatch Andrey Golubev, and then Pablo Cuevas or qualifier Matthias Bachinger to reach the third round. Cuevas much prefers clay, so Bachinger, who is 5-1 in 2015, will also have a nice chance at round 2, but regardless Wawrinka should defeat Nieminen in round 3, as he comes off taking the Chennai title and is in great form. Also look for an in form Copil to defeat Andujar, the Romanian is 6-1 in 2015 and qualified by beating Aussie teen Omar Jasika in straight sets.
Fabio Fognini is slated to face Alejandro Gonzalez in round 1, the Italian is seeded 16th but has been playing well below the level of a top 50 player for quite some time. Thus Gonzalez, even though he prefers clay, may have just enough ability to notch an upset victory, given that unlike Fognini, he’s known for fighting hard in matches. The winner of Fognini/Gonzalez will face Garcia-Lopez/Gojowczyk in round 2, and I have Gojowczyk getting into the third round as a surprise. At that stage, expect the Pospisil/Querrey winner to defeat him, or another opponent, to reach the round 16. The winner of Pospisil/Querrey is slated to face Alex Dolgopolov or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 2. With Dolgopolov coming off an injury, though he should still defeat Lorenzi, who mostly plays hard court tournaments to collect a check. Dolgo has great talent but with that injury in mind, Pospisil/Querrey, most likely Pospisil should beat him, and eventually reach the second week. It’s possible Dolgopolov may withdrawal, and it’s a shame he’s not healthy because otherwise this would be a great draw for him all in all, if he withdraws and one of the lucky losers replaces him, I still favor that LL over Lorenzi.
Nishikori/Almagro will face Ivan Dodig or Joao Souza in round 2, with neither of those players being in particularly impressive form, I expect Nishikori to setup a round 3 encounter with American Steve Johnson. Johnson, an Auckland quarterfinalist, has qualifier Kyle Edmund first up, and then Santiago Giraldo or qualifier Jan Hernych, with Giraldo in poor form right now (He was rolled over in his first Auckland match) Johnson has the advantage, as he’s also more accomplished than Edmund. Nishikori beat him in Brisbane, and I expect the same result, with Nishikori making the round of 16.
Doha champ David Ferrer will face the laggard Thomaz Bellucci, with Dusan Lajovic or Sergiy Stakhovsky on deck, Ferrer is a near lock for the fourth round, as his third round opponent is most likely Gilles Simon, who appears to be struggling with a knee injury. Simon has had AO success before, and he still should reach the third round as the legendary choker Robin Haase, and then the Stephane Robert/Marcel Granollers winner are his path, with Granollers in awful form in his own right. Overall this section is weak and Ferrer is far superior to anyone else here.
Nadal is another player that is in terrible form going into the AO, but he has a round 1 opponent who is in even worse shape than he is, that being the veteran Russian Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny has four career hard court wins against Rafa but none since 2008, he’s lost four straight matches going back to last season. Even though Nadal is 4-4 in his last eight with losses to the likes of Michael Berrer in Doha, Martin Klizan in Beijing, and Borna Coric in Basel, he still should beat Youzhny given this is a slam. After Youzhny, Nadal will face qualifier Tim Smyczek or Luke Saville, an Aussie wild card. In the third round, Lukas Rosol, who famously beat him at Wimbledon, is a possible opponent but I personally have JL Struff getting through to that stage instead to be Nadal’s opponent. Struff opens with Israeli veteran Dudi Sela, Sela hasn’t played any warm up events in 2015, while Struff is 2-2 in 2015 with wins over solid competitors Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Dominic Thiem. Rosol faces Kenny De Schepper first up, the Frenchman qualified and won a round in Auckland, while Rosol is on a four match losing streak.there may be some upset potential there but De Schepper is a one dimensional player built around his serve so I’m not sure he has enough to win. Struff beat Rosol last year on grass, and given current form, I have Struff over Rosol as I mentioned earlier. I’m deeply tempted to pick Struff over Nadal, but that would be quite a shocking pick, and I’m not confident enough to make it. Smyczek should defeat Saville as he’s the more accomplished veteran and plays some of his best tennis at the AO, Saville has yet to win a match in 2015 while Smyczek has won four and has more confidence.
The fourth round opponent for Nadal/Struff/Rosol is most likely to be either Auckland semifinalist Kevin Anderson, or Richard Gasquet, who made the quarterfinals in Doha. Anderson faces off with Argentine Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in round 1, Schwartzman much prefers clay, so it is almost certain to be Anderson against Igor Sijsling or Ricardas Berankis in round 2. Berankis has had some success in Australia, while Sijsling qualified in Sydney, I favor Berankis getting through over the one dimensional Sijsling. His match with Anderson is quite interesting, he is 2-0 in the h2h record with both those matches taking place at the challenger level, and Anderson may have some level of fatigue, with that in mind I’m going with an upset and placing Berankis in the third round. Richard Gasquet should safely defeat Carlos Berlocq, and then either Blaz Kavcic or home Aussie James Duckworth to reach the third round. Duckworth and Kavcic played a legendary match at the 2013 Australian Open, Kavcic won in five sets, 10-8 in the fifth, and had to get an IV after the match because it was played in white hot conditions. Kavcic qualified in Doha, and Duckworth made the quarters in Brisbane most recently, with home support, I feel like Ducky will get through to round 2. Expect Gasquet to take out Berankis in round 3 to reach the round of 16.
Doha finalist Tomas Berdych will face Alejandro Falla in round 1, then the winner of Estrella/Melzer, Berdych should safely reach the third round and face either Troicki/Vesely or the Millman/Mayer winner at that stage. I’m predicting a great tournament for Millman, as I have him beating Mayer, and then a fatigued Troicki/Vesely in round 2 to reach round 3, before falling to Berdych, who occasionally has lapses in form, but appears to be in good form.
The Gulbis/Kokkinakis winner is slated to face Filip Krajinovic/Sam Groth in round 2, Groth has a great shot at the third round, he plays well at home in Australia and Gulbis isn’t in great form here, while Kokkinakis still hasn’t fully matured, while the big serving, one dimensional Groth made the quarters in Brisbane. I have a Groth vs. Bernard Tomic third round matchup slated, Tomic just beat a struggling Kohlschreiber who has lost three straight, in Sydney and he is likely to face him again in the second round. Assuming Kohli beats Paul-Henri Mathieu and Tomic beats Tobias Kamke. Tomic and Groth have yet to play each other, but with Tomic being more well rounded and normally playing well on home soil, Bernard should reach the round of 16 to face off with Berdych.
Four time AO champ Federer will open with Rendy Lu, who is a solid hard court player but doesn’t have near enough weapons to take out the Swiss, who most recently won the Brisbane title. Federer is likely to face Simone Bolelli in round 2 as Bolelli faces a slumping Juan Monaco in round 1. Though he recently made the quarters in Sydney, it’s highly unlikely Federer will face any trouble in his first two matches. In round 3 it will be Chardy/Coric or Denis Istomin/Andreas Seppi as the opponent for Federer. Seppi and Istomin have a back and forth h2h history and Seppi leads it 2-1 on hard courts with a pair of Grand Slam wins that went five sets. The recent Doha semifinalist Seppi should beat Istomin who hasn’t won a match in 2015. Chardy beat Seppi at the 2013 AO and I feel he will do so again before losing to Federer who he famously beat on clay last year but is 0-2 against otherwise.
The fourth round opponent for Federer is most likely to be Ivo Karlovic, Karlovic upset Novak Djokovic in Doha and reached the semifinals. If his serve is clicking, he should defeat qualifier Ruben Bemelmans, then dirtballer Federico Delbonis or Nick Kyrgios, the promising young Aussie who seems to be struggling with a shoulder injury. Kyrgios probably has enough talent to beat Delbonis on a hard court, but with an injury, Karlovic should defeat him as Kyrgios may have trouble reading the Croats serve. Tommy Robredo has an abductor injury but he plans on playing anyway. The Spaniard will face Edouard Roger-Vasselin in Round 1 and perhaps Mikhail Kukushkin, who was a finalist in Sydney, in round 2. Kukushkin would need to defeat Malek Jaziri. I have Kukushkin into the third round before falling to Karlovic. ERV could also upset Robredo but the Frenchman isn’t playing well right now so I’m not risking it in my own bracket, even with Robredo less than 100%.
Andy Murray, who hasn’t lost a match in 2015 (Hopman Cup and Abu Dhabi exo singles) faces qualifier Yuki Bhambri, then qualifier Alexander Kudryavtsev or Marinko Matosevic in his first two matches. I don’t expect much trouble for the three time former AO finalist in the first two rounds, especially given Matosevic is slumping. Brisbane quarterfinalist Martin Klizan could be trouble in the third round though. Klizan, who opens with Tatsuma Ito, has been in great form recently, and his round 2 opponent will be either Aussie wild card Jordan Thompson or Joao Sousa. Thompson is a promising young player who took Jerzy Janowicz the distance last year at the AO, but I don’t feel he has matured enough to deal with the powerful shotmaker Klizan. Murray and Klizan have never met, but it will be a high quality third round matchup if it takes place, and isn’t likely to be straight sets. Murray has been in good form since the second half of 2014 and he is working hard to get back into the top 5. Given Murray is best at defense and returning the ball, while Klizan is a bit of a ballbasher, the matchup favors Murray.
Murray/Klizan are set to face either the Dimitrov/Brown winner or David Goffin in the round of 16. Goffin, a semifinalist in Chennai, who has played some high quality tennis since the second half of 2014, will need to beat qualifier Michael Russell who continues to grind away on tour, then Marcos Baghdatis or Teymuraz Gabashvili to reach the third round. I expect him to do so and set up a highly anticipated clash with Dimitrov, that should have basically even odds. However, Dimitrov beat Goffin at last year’s US Open and is 4-0 overall against him in the h2h. That h2h record gives me enough reason to pick Dimitrov to reach the round of 16. Dimitrov’s path to round 3 is Brown, and Lukas Lacko or Maximo Gonzalez in round 2.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Gilles Muller, Peter Gojowczyk, Bernard Tomic, and David Goffin
Muller has a potential path to the round of 16. He will need to beat an inconsistent Bautista Agut, and Isner, who can tire and do poorly in slams, to get there. I don’t see him having a shot against Djokovic, but a second week showing for a player who has a great comeback story from injury is still inspiring.
Gojowczyk has a great path to the third round, and could also make the round of 16. To do that he will likely need to defeat Pospisil/Querrey but that is a doable proposition given they aren’t known for being the most reliable players.
Tomic could even reach the quarterfinals, but on home soil he should at least be good enough for the round of 16. The seeds in his section, Gulbis and Kohlschreiber, are both in poor form and he would face Berdych in the round of 16. He must be pleased with his draw as he seeks to prove to his home country that’s he’s truly serious and committed to being successful at the top level of tennis.
Goffin will have his big test against Dimitrov in round 3. If he can pull that upset off, he can also make the second week, and this is still a good draw for him to make a run.
Djokovic d. Isner
Raonic d. Monfils
Wawrinka d. Pospisil
Ferrer d. Nishikori
Berdych d. Tomic
Nadal d. Gasquet
Murray d. Dimitrov
Federer d. Karlovic
Isner has won twice against Novak on hard courts, and the Serb does tend to struggle with big servers, but Novak plays some of his best tennis at the AO and thus should advance, perhaps dropping a set or two. Monfils is 2-0 in his career against Raonic but I feel the Canadian is clicking right now, and he’ll be able to pull through in a best of five sets format. Monfils tends to get distracted at points in matches, and if Raonic can maintain his serve that should be enough.
Wawrinka was slated to meet Pospisil last year at the AO but Vashy hurt his back and had to withdraw. Wawrinka is the better player, and though Vashy may trouble him, I don’t expect an upset. Ferrer-Nishikori should be a great matchup and I could see it going either way. Nishikori has an overall h2h edge but on outdoor hard courts they are split 2-2, and Ferrer won the only time they met in Australia back in 2013. Ferrer is one of the fittest players on tour and appears to be in great form. I have a feeling if this is a daytime match, that Nishikori, who struggles with heat, could be negatively impacted, and that will be enough of a difference to give Ferrer the edge.
Berdych has beaten Tomic in consecutive years at Wimbledon, and on a hard court. Berdy should be favored and anything is possible but Berdych is likely to overpower Tomic. Nadal could lose to Gasquet depending on his health, and form, but Rafa has destroyed Gasquet every time they have met including three times since 2013. With that in mind, I have to play it safe and pick Nadal into the quarters.
Murray is 3-0 against Dimitrov on an outdoor hard court, and 4-2 overall in the h2h. They tend to play exciting, competitive matches yet I feel like Murray has more motivation right now and is playing better recently thus I have him through. Federer has won his last six meetings against Karlovic and given he looked good in Brisbane, I don’t expect him to have any trouble reaching the quarterfinals.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters: Djokovic d. Raonic
Wawrinka d. Ferrer
Berdych d. Nadal
Murray d. Federer
Djokovic is 4-0 against Raonic. he tends to struggle against big servers, but still I don’t feel Milos has enough game to beat him. Wawrinka-Ferrer is a highly anticipated matchup in my estimation, Nishikori-Wawrinka likewise, the business end of the tournament will put a lot of pressure on Wawrinka as he seeks to defend his title, but I feel he’s talented enough to beat Ferrer as he has the last three times they have met.
Berdych hasn’t beaten Nadal since 2006 and always plays poorly against him, but even though I feel Rafa will be weakened enough to lose this match, it’s a random guess, and I would never pick Berdy over Nadal in a neutral situation, but something appears wrong with Nadal. Federer is 2-1 against Murray at the AO alone, and both players have had success against each other, again this match could go either way, but I’m backing a motivated Murray who appears to want to prove the doubters wrong and get back into the Grand Slam discussion.
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Murray d. Berdych
Wawrinka and Djokovic have played multiple classic matches, and I have Novak winning this one given the 16-3 overall h2h and the fact Novak is 5-1 since 2013 in their h2h meetings. Wawrinka shockingly beat Djokovic last year here, 9-7 in the 5th en route to the title and five sets is certainly possible, but I feel the winning trend will return again in favor of Djokovic.
Berdych actually has a 6-4 h2h edge against Murray and he won their last two meetings in 2013. That said, I still feel Murray is the better player and will get through given current form.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Murray went 0-4 against Djokovic last year and is 0-3 against him in Australia, including losing two finals. With that in mind, Djokovic is a clear favorite to win yet another AO title.
2015 ATP Brisbane Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Brisbane Preview
The first ATP event of 2015 will once again be the Brisbane 250 tournament on hard courts in Brisbane, Australia. The opening tournament of the Emirates Australian Open series features a strong field that includes 3 top 10 players. Here is a preview of all the action on the men’s side of the joint ATP/WTA event. Niall Clarke has a preview of the WTA side of the tournament coming up.
ATP Brisbane
Brisbane International presented by Suncorp ATP World Tour 250* Brisbane, Australia January 4-January 11, 2015
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Kei Nishikori (5)
3: Milos Raonic (8)
4: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
All eight seeds are top 25 players, as Brisbane is a loaded 250 level event.
First Round matchups to watch:
Martin Klizan vs. Jurgen Melzer
Martin Klizan had a great 2014 season that saw him finish the year back in the top 40, the Slovak won an ATP title, and went 25-14 overall at the ATP level. He finished the year with a notable victory over Rafa Nadal to reach the semis in Beijing, and he also had a top 10 win over Kei Nishikori in 2014. The powerful ball striker will take on the declined veteran Melzer for the first time, Melzer fell out of the top 100 in 2014, and only reached one ATP semi, and one ATP quarterfinal all year. The former world number 8 is still a tactically wise lefty who is a tough out in matches, but at 33, this may well be his last season on tour if his results don’t pick up. Expect Klizan to advance as he is a player on the rise.
Sam Groth vs. Lleyton Hewitt
The 27 year old Groth cemented himself as a top 100 player in 2014, and he will be defending quarterfinal points in Brisbane. Groth won a challenger title, reached a few challenger finals and an ATP semifinal in 2014, playing a mix of ATP and challenger level matches. He will take on a player who has always absorbed big serving pace well in the legendary counterpuncher Lleyton Hewitt, who remains in the ATP top 50 at almost 34 years of age. Hewitt is defending his Brisbane title this week, and he won two ATP titles in 2014, in route to a positive 20-16 record on tour. Hewitt and Groth have never played before, and we’ll see what kind of shape Hewitt is in to start the season, that said he usually get himself hyped to play on home soil, and he should be able to fend off Groth, perhaps in a pair of tiebreaks.
Julien Benneteau remains in the hunt for an elusive first ATP title, as the French veteran, who at the age of 33 remains at a career high ranking of 25 will start off his season in Brisbane against the young gun Aussie wild card Kokkinakis. Benneteau went 26-24 in 2014 with one ATP final, a challenger title, and some great results at the Masters level including a semifinal appearance in Cincy and a pair of quarterfinals in Shanghai and Indian Wells. Kokkinakis currently sits at 150 in the world, and the 18 year old will be looking to have a breakthrough season, much like his countryman Nick Kyrgios had in 2014. Kokkinakis primarily played on the challenger tour last year, but did win a couple of ATP main draw matches and his lanky game is clearly improving onto what should be bigger and better stages in 2015. Benneteau will be favored but I’d give Kokkinakis a really good chance to grab a win over a veteran ATP competitor on home soil.
Bernard Tomic vs. Sam Querrey
Bernard Tomic enters 2015 claiming to have a renewed focus and commitment to his tennis as he seeks to reach his potential after years of underachieving. He’s still just 22 and has time to make his move into the tennis elite. He won an ATP title last year, along with reaching a final and a semifinal in route to a 17-15 record at the ATP level. He will face the American Querrey who he has beaten twice before, once on grass in 2013, and once on hard courts in 2012. Querrey returned to the top 40 after a solid 2014 that saw finish 28-21 at the ATP level. Sam found success on the challenger circuit, winning 3 consecutive ATP challenger titles, and that in particular seemed to improve his confidence last season. Now back at the ATP level on a full time basis in 2015, the competition will be stiffer and he will need to win matches like this one against Tomic to maintain, and perhaps improve upon his current ranking. This is a toss-up match for me between a pair of players who can play great tennis, or totally fall apart, depending on their emotions.
Top Half:
Last year’s finalist Roger Federer will be seeking to claim yet another ATP title to add to his illustrious resume, the 33 year old Swiss will be mounting a renewed challenge for the number one ranking in 2015 after winning 5 titles and going an incredible 73-12 last season. Federer will open his 2015 campaign against a qualifier or Aussie wildcard John Millman, who is more talented than his current ranking of 156 would suggest. That said, I fully expect to see a Federer vs. Gilles Simon quarterfinal matchup. Simon will open with Aussie wild card James Duckworth who he has a 1-0 h2h record with. After the challenger level Duckworth, Simon should face the quick Finnish veteran Jarkko Nieminen who has a history of playing well in Australia. Nieminen opens with a qualifier, and is 2-3 in his career against Simon. Simon had an inconsistent 2014, but he had some good results at the end of last season (Shanghai final, Tokyo semis) and is most likely to reach the quarterfinals in this section. Barring a monumental upset, Federer should defeat Simon for the fifth time in a row and reach the semifinals. Last year Federer dispatched Simon in a pair of tiebreaks in the Shanghai final.
Former Brisbane finalist Grigor Dimitrov is looking to cement himself in the top 10 in 2015. Dimitrov will open with Jeremy Chardy or Andrey Golubev for the opening match of his season. Chardy, who has the game to score big wins from time to time, may give Dimitrov a test, but the Bulgarian should make the quarterfinals to face off with most likely either Klizan or 7 seed Alex Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov is a former Brisbane finalist, and he opens with Carlos Berlocq who is more comfortable on clay. Dolgo had a solid 2014 until he suffered a knee injury, and we’ll see what sort of physical shape he is in for the first part of 2015. Klizan vs. Dolgo looks to be a great second round matchup, and I could see either one reaching the quarterfinals. That said, Klizan was more consistent late in 2014, and I’m going with him over a talented but erratic Dolgo who wasn’t the same in 2014 since injuring his knee. Look for Klizan (or Dolgo) to test Dimitrov as well but Dimitrov should prevail and reach the semis, he’s 2-1 in his career against Dolgo including a win at Wimbledon last year, he has never played Klizan.
Kei Nishikori has reached the semis for two straight years in Brisbane and he reached the top 5 for the first time in his career last season. He won 4 ATP titles last year, and reached a Masters and a slam final, both for the first time in his career. He will open against Aussie Marinko Matosevic, or American Steve Johnson. He beat Johnson once last year on grass, and beat Matosevic three times last year, to extend his h2h record against him to 5-0 in his career. I expect a healthy and motivated Nishikori to get himself to the quarters, and then take out one of Benneteau/Kokkinakis/Tomic/Querrey in the quarters. All of those opponents would be challenging, in a stacked section of the draw but Nishikori should handle any of them, I favor Tomic to get through to the quarterfinals on home soil, given he tends to play his best in January during the AO series.
Milos Raonic cemented himself as a top 10 player in 2014 by playing consistent, reliable tennis. He only won one title, but he reached two finals, including a Masters final and reached the quarterfinals or better in all but one Masters 1000 level event. The Canadian number one will open with a qualifier or Mikhail Kukushkin, and after that is likely to face either Hewitt, or 5 seed Kevin Anderson, with Groth, or a qualifier also options. Anderson and Hewitt have split h2h meetings, but Anderson won the most recent one last season, he plays a similar gamestyle to Groth, but his is more well rounded and developed. It’s hard to go against Hewitt in Australia, but I’m favoring a Raonic vs. Anderson quarterfinal with Raonic advancing. Both guys player a similar serve and forehand heavy style, but Raonic does it better so he should get himself through to the semis.
There are other dark horse options like Tomic, Hewitt, Simon, and Johnson but if anyone is going to prevent the semifinals from featuring all seeded players it is most likely to be Klizan, who has shown the ability to win big matches and has the game to trouble Dimitrov if he can get past Melzer and Dolgo. A semifinal to open the season would be a big boost for Klizan.
Predictions
Semis: Federer d. Dimitrov Nishikori d. Raonic
Federer has won both h2h meetings, last season and the year before, indoors in Basel, against Dimitrov, and he has done so without dropping a set. Though Dimitrov is improving, they play similar tennis and Federer does it at a normally superior level, so barring a shock, Fed should advance to the final.
Nishikori and Raonic have a budding rivalry at this point, they met four times last year, with Nishikori going 3-1 in those meetings, including two great matches in the Tokyo final and US Open round of 16. Raonic is a good player but Nishikori returns well enough, along with being able to generate enough power to stay on the court with the Canadian and he seems to have the matchup edge, thus I expect to see him in the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Federer
Federer is 3-2 overall against Nishikori and comfortably defeated him in their last two meetings, including at the World Tour Finals. That said, Nishikori won the only outdoor hard court meeting in Miami, and I’m going with a judgment call favoring the younger Nishikori to pull this off and show he’s going to be challenging for big four status in 2015. The Brisbane final is likely to be excellent given the strength of the field and the relative balance of the draw.
Australia’s @SamGroth Reaches 1st ATP Semifinal With Superb Serve and Volley Attack @TennisHalloFame
Sam Groth was called “the forgotten man of Australian Tennis” a few years back on a tennis fan site. He won’t be forgotten in Newport, as he made his first career ATP singles semifinal today by knocking out defending champ Nicolas Mahut. Groth executed a superb serve and volley attack plan to stun the Frenchman today. After the match, Groth reflected on his time away from the game, his faith in Coach Ben Mathias of the Australian Tennis Federation and the new faces of Australian tennis. On Saturday, Groth faces Ivo Karlovic for a spot in Sunday’s final.
Interview with @LukeSaville18 of @TennisAustralia @TennisHalloFame 2014
Luke Saville burst onto the scene last month by winning his 1st pro match, at Wimbledon no less.
Today, he took a smaller but important step in his career by winning his 1st ATP tour match in straight sets at the Hall of Fame Tennis Championships in Newport, Rhode Island, a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Peter Polansky.
In 2 qualifying matches and the first round win, the young South Australian has dropped 0 sets and only 9 games in 3 matches.
That’s 9 games in 6 straight sets. Nice.
Luke goes on to chat about Wimbledon, Nick Kyrgios and Lleyton Hewitt. Having been relegated to outer courts thus far in the tournament, Saville will get his day under the Center Court sun when he faces defending champion Nicolas Mahut tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. USEDT.
Germany Upsets Spain, Britain Topples USA, Switzerland Smashes Serbia: 2014 Davis Cup WG Round 1 Review
World Group Round 1:
Czech Republic d. Netherlands 3-2
Robin Haase upset Radek Stepanek to give the Dutch a 1-0 start on Friday, but Tomas Berdych was the pace setter for the Czech Republic, as he destroyed Igor Sijsling to level the tie at 1-1. He then teamed up with Radek Stepanek to beat Haase/Jean-Julien Rojer in the Saturday doubles for a 2-1 lead, and finished the tie with another demolition, this time of Thiemo De Bakker for a 3-1 win.
Sijsling beat Lukas Rosol in the dead rubber to end it 3-2, but really not much in question in this tie.
Japan d. Canada 4-1
Kei Nishikori helped Japan oust team Canada with singles wins over Peter Polansky and Frank Dancevic, all without dropping a set, and a doubles win. He teamed up with Yasutaka Uchiyama over Daniel Nestor/Dancevic. That added up to the 3 rubbers wins Japan needed. Dancevic did beat Go Soeda on Friday, and Soeda won the dead rubber over Polansky on Sunday. This tie was never in much doubt, and Dancevic retired in the 2nd set against Nishikori in the crucial match.
Germany d. Spain 4-1
In the big upset of the week, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer were heroes for team Germany as they beat Spain 3-0 in live rubbers. Kohli crushed Roberto Bautista Agut and Mayer won a tough 5 setter against Feliciano Lopez, fighting through cramps, to give Germany a 2-0 Friday lead. Then, Tommy Haas/Kohlschreiber beat the talented duo of David Marrero/Fernando Verdasco in the Saturday doubles for the clincher.
Spain got a walkover in one of the dead Sunday singles rubbers and Daniel Brands swept RBA in the 5th rubber.
France d. Australia 5-0
It was a learning experience for the Aussies, as Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga schooled Nick Kyrgios and Lleyton Hewitt, all in straight sets on Friday, and then teamed up to oust the Aussies for good beating of Hewitt/Guccione in the doubles on Saturday.
The dead rubbers were handled admirably by Julian Benneteau and Gael Monfils, who beat the young Thanasi Kokkinakis and Kyrgios respectively.
Great Britain d. USA 3-1
Andy Murray and James Ward were the heroes, while Sam Querrey and Donald Young were the zeroes for team USA. Murray destroyed Young in Friday singles before Ward came back from a huge deficit against Querrey to win in 5 sets. The American saw his level of play totally collapse from 2 sets up.
The Bryans beat Colin Fleming/Dominic Inglot in the doubles.
Murray needed 4 sets against Querrey, but he played some exceptional clay court tennis in this tie, and helped Great Britain topple yet another cold streak in their tennis history.
The Union Jack is into the quarterfinals.
Italy d. Argentina 3-1
Carlos Berlocq gave the Argentines hope with an upset of Andreas Seppi in the first rubber, but Fabio Fognini would play the villain. He beat Juan Monaco in the other Friday singles rubber, then teamed with Simone Bolelli to beat Horacio Zeballos and Eduardo Schwank in the doubles rubber, and ousted Berlocq in the fourth rubber to clinch the tie. The 5th was mutually skipped by both teams.
Kazakhstan d. Belgium 3-2
The only tie this weekend to feature a live fifth rubber, Belgium fell short of the comeback on the road. They were down 0-2 after Friday singles with Mikhail Kukushkin beating Ruben Bemelmans, and Andrey Golubev surviving a barrage against David Goffin to win 12-10 in the 5th (saving multiple match points in that one).
Bemelmans and Olivier Rochus would help the Belgians keep the tie alive, winning the doubles over Kukushkin and Evgeny Korolev. On Sunday, Goffin beat Kukushkin in 5 sets, but Andrey Golubev shut the door on this tie, handling Bemelmans in straights to send the Kazakhs into the quarters and the Belgians into the World Group playoffs.
Switzerland d. Serbia 3-2
The Swiss mauled Serbia and won the live rubbers 3-0.
Roger Federer straight-setted Ilija Bozoljac, Stan Wawrinka beat Dusan Lajovic in 4, and Marco Chiudinelli/Michael Lammer got together to beat Nenad Zimonjic/Filip Krajinovic in the doubles.
Lajovic and Krajinovic would beat Lammer and Chiudinelli respectively in the 2 dead rubbers, but this tie was never close at all.
Action outside the World Group:
Yuki Bhambri and India whitewashed Taiwan in Asia-Oceania Group 1 action 5-0.
In Europe/Africa group 1 action, Jerzy Janowicz and Poland beat Russia 3-1 on live rubbers and 3-2 overall.
Blaz Kavcic and Slovenia beat Portugal 3-1.
Sergiy Stakhovsky and Ukraine beat Romania 3-1 and Martin Klizan and Slovakia whitewashed Latvia 5-0.
In Europe/Africa group 2, Freddie Nielsen and Denmark beat Cyprus 3-0 on live rubbers and 4-1 overall.
Rik De Voest and South Africa beat Monaco 3-1 on live rubbers and 4-1 overall.
Ricardas Berankis and Lithuania blanked Norway 5-0.
Jarkko Nieminen and Finland beat Bulgaria 3-1 on live rubbers and 4-1 overall.
Damir Dzumhur and Bosnia beat Greece 3-1. Belarus beat Ireland 4-1. Moldova beat Egypt 4-1 and Luxembourg beat Morocco 3-2.
Hewitt Celebrates 1st ATP Title in 4 years, Wawrinka Captures 5th Career ATP Title in Chennai
Hewitt
ATP Brisbane
Lleyton Hewitt won his first ATP title in four years against the man he last beat in that ATP final in Halle four years ago, Roger Federer. Hewitt prevailed in Brisbane, 6-1 4-6 6-3 as the classic rivals battled it out.
Federer started very poorly and Hewitt rolled in the first before Fed found his game and won the second set. Then, Hewitt took ultimate advantage and finished the match in the third. Hewitt’s first ATP title came some 16 years ago, and the almost 33 year old now has 29 ATP titles.
Hewitt beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, Feliciano Lopez and Marius Copil all in straights. He then won a tough 3 setter against Kei Nishikori, who plays very similar to him in terms of style, in order to reach the final.
Federer looked improved at times in his pre-AO tune up, dispatching Jarkko Nieminen and Marinko Matosevic with ease before needing 3 sets against Jeremy Chardy. In that match, the Swiss maestro served very well but his unforced error counts were and have been an issue when he begins to struggle in matches.
Mariusz Fystenberg/Daniel Nestor teamed up to beat Juan Sebastian Cabal/Robert Farah in the doubles final.
ATP Chennai
Chennai Open Official Site
Stanislas Wawrinka was the best player in the Chennai Open field, and he got the job done, winning his fifth career ATP title and second career Chennai title 7-5 6-2 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin. ERV was playing in just his second career ATP final. with his record now falling to 0-2 in those finals. ERV was able to keep things close for a set, but Stan ran away with the match in the end.
Wawrinka crushed Benjamin Becker and Aljaz Bedene, then won in straights via a late second set retirement in the semis against Vasek Pospisil.
ERV beat Albert Ramos and Jiri Vesely in straights, then needed a third set against Dudi Sela and also Marcel Granollers in the semis.
Johan Brunstrom/Frederik Nielsen won the doubles title over the Croat duo of Mate Pavcic/Marin Draganja.
Nadal Finds Way to Title in Doha; France wins Hopman Cup
ATP Doha
Rafael Nadal honestly did not look great in Doha, but he captured the title there for the first time in his career, 6-1 6-7 6-2 over Gael Monfils.
Nadal got out to a very fast start in the final, but Monfils would make a second set charge, eventually capturing it in a tiebreak and forcing a third. But in that third, Nadal would again raise his level and finish the match with ease.
Nadal beat Lukas Rosol in straights, Tobias Kamke in 3 sets, Ernests Gulbis in straights and Peter Gojowczyk in 3 sets to reach the final. He played very well for periods in all of those matches and rather poorly in other periods, all in all still trying to find his form and play consistently. Gojowczyk, a qualifier, most notably scored a win against his countryman Philipp Kohlschreiber en route to the semis in a tournament that was dominated by upsets. Seeded players Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Kohlschreiber and Fernando Verdasco all fell before the quarterfinals.
Monfils played some tremendous and entertaining tennis this week, harking back to some of his top 15 level play years ago, as he scored wins over Santiago Giraldo, a hobbled Richard Gasquet, Daniel Brands and an exhausted Florian Mayer. Mayer was a surprise semifinalist as well. His biggest win came in a 3 set comeback against Andy Murray, who played the third set with signs of injury issues.
Tomas Berdych/Jan Hajek took the doubles title over Alex Peya/Bruno Soares.
Hopman Cup
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Alize Cornet beat a surprise Polish team in the Hopman Cup final, as the French team went 3-0 in round robin play, 7-2 in overall matches, and then won the final 2-1. Tsonga beat Grzegorz Panfil in men’s singles, Agnieszka Radwanska beat Cornet in women’s singles, and the French team won the mixed doubles.
Notable other showings include the partial withdrawal of the USA team of John Isner/Sloane Stephens with injuries, along with team Italy doing the same (Andreas Seppi/Flavia Pennetta). Panfil upset Milos Raonic in singles. A massive result. Radek Stepanek also upset Raonic in men’s singles.
2014 ATP @BrisbaneTennis Preview & Picks Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
Brisbane Official Site
The 2014 ATP season will fire up with a strong trio of ATP 250 events, all on hard courts, in Brisbane, Doha and Chennai, most of the top players will be in action and it is a fresh start to the year for everyone, here is to a tremendous year of tennis in 2014!
ATP Brisbane Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp
ATP World Tour 250
Brisbane, Australia
December 29-January 5, 2014
Prize Money: $452,670
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (6)
2: Kei Nishikori (17)
3: Gilles Simon (19)
4: Kevin Anderson (20)
4 top 20 players and a seed cutoff at 34 gives Brisbane a quality field, though perhaps not as strong as earlier years. This is a joint event with the WTA.
First round matchups to watch:
(WC)James Duckworth vs. Jarkko Nieminen
The player the Aussies affectionately call ‘Ducky’ gets a wild card here, as he had a quality 2013 and is close to his career high ranking (132). He went 3-7 at the ATP level last year and had some good results in challengers. This test against Jarkko the Flying Finn Nieminen will not be easy though, as Nemo generally plays well on Australian hard courts and won the last event he played in 2013, a challenger in November. All of this means good vibes for 2014, as he is now 32 and a wily veteran. I expect Nieminen to win this, perhaps in straights, as he routined Duckworth 2 and 2 in Sydney on hard courts in 2012. However, Ducky could surprise and get revenge for that, as his game has improved since then.
Marinko Matosevic vs. Julien Benneteau
Marinko Matosevic had a poor 2013, going an abysmal 18-25 at the ATP level and dropping out of the ATP top 60, but he did get a h2h win against Julien Benneteau last year and he has a chance to make up points at home in Australia during the month of January. Benneteau remained in the top 40 and went 27-25 in 2013 at the ATP level, but he struggled at the end of the year and at 32 it remains to be seen if his level of play will drop with age. This match could go either way as they both traditionally play well on Australian hard courts, but I will go with Matosevic to grab the win.
(7)Dmitry Tursunov vs. Sam Querrey
Dmitry Tursunov was one of the best comeback stories of 2013 as the Russian posted a tremendous 31-21 ATP record and returned to the top 30. His match against Querrey will, in my opinion, be the most interesting first round match in Brisbane as Querrey went in the opposite direction in 2013, barely hanging on to a top 50 ranking and suffering an abdominal injury during the Asian swing that ended his year on a sour note. Whether he will come back roaring or stumble into the year remains to be seen and though they haven’t met since 2008, Tursunov has a 2-1 h2h edge, with all their meetings on hard courts. I’ll tip Tursunov to advance. At least Querrey is in great shape and form, and the Russian is not.
Marin Cilic vs. Denis Istomin
Marin Cilic will be under a lot of pressure in 2014 as a controversial doping suspension and subsequent appeal ruined the entire second half of his tennis year as he only played once after Wimbledon, losing in the second round of the Paris Masters. Denis Istomin remained in the top 50, going 32-30 with streaks of quality play followed by slumps. If Cilic is not too rusty and is prepared well, he should win this, but Istomin played well last year during the Australian swing and he has points to defend here, meaning his motivation should be strong, I’ll go with Cilic, but this is another hard to pick matchup.
(WC)Nick Kyrgios vs. Matt Ebden
The young Aussie hope Nick Kyrgios will be sure to attract a lot of fanfare in Brisbane, but his compatriot Matt Ebden played tremendously at the end of 2013, catching fire and rolling on the challenger circuit after a rough early 2013. Kyrgios is now in the top 200 while the more experienced Ebden is just inside the top 70 and both have flashes of talent. Clearly, Kyrgios has more potential for career growth and could be a future top 10 player but it remains to be seen if he is at that level yet, making this another hard match to predict.
Top Half:
Roger Federer has changed racquets, hired Stefan Edberg as his coach, and his wife has another child on the way. Thus, a lot has changed in the offseason, as the Swiss maestro suffered one of his worst years ever in 2013 which featured some shockingly bad losses and struggles across all surfaces and in the big slam and masters events. He also dropped out of the top 5. His comeback effort starts in Brisbane, against the Nieminen/Duckworth winner in what should be a good match and he will meet one of Querrey/Tursunov/Matosevic/Benneteau in the quarters, another match I expect him to get out of. I do think his form will be improved and he has a renewed serious focus to his tennis.
Kevin Anderson had a great 2013, going a tremendous 37-23 and establishing himself as a top 20 player. The South African plays well on hard courts and he will seek to recover after a terrible second half of the year where he seemingly ran out of gas, winning just 3 of his final 11 tournament matches. He will open with wild card Sam Groth or a qualifier and meet one of Igor Sijsling/Nicolas Mahut/Adrian Mannarino/Jeremy Chardy in the quarters, most likely Sijsling in my opinion. Anderson has a relatively easy draw. That and good form should allow him to reach the semis without much difficulty.
Bottom Half:
Kei Nishikori flirted with the top 10 in 2013 and went a very nice 36-19 on the ATP level with 1 ATP title. He also plays well on Australian hard courts, but his year was plagued by streaks of inconsistent play and his opening match against Kyrgios/Ebden does have a bit of upset potential, though unlikely. Assuming he gets past that, he should most likely face a test against Grigor Dimitrov, the defending finalist from Brisbane. The Bulgarian has to beat Robin Haase and Istomin/Cilic to reach the quarters and Nishikori beat him indoors in Shanghai last year, but I myself think Dimitrov is the favorite to reach the semis from this section. Grisha is pushing for the top 20 and went 37-23 with 1 title on the ATP tour in 2013.
29 year old Gilles Simon was a decent 36-24 at the ATP level with 1 title in 2013, but he didn’t have any break through showings and was consistent more than anything. He has quarterfinal points to defend here as he opens with a qualifier, and then a big test should come against the fighting Aussie Lleyton Hewitt, who played great for parts of 2013 and has already said he has no plans to retire in 2014. Hewitt opens with a qualifier and then Feliciano Lopez/Mikhail Kukushkin, and assuming he can win both those matches, he has a nice shot at upsetting Simon and reaching the semis. However, Simon will be the favorite because he beat Hewitt twice in 2013 and is 4-0 career against him, and match-wise, his pushing game is a great style against the counterpunching Hewitt.
Dark Horse: Marin Cilic
It is unusual for an established player like Marin Cilic to be a dark horse in an ATP 250 event, but after a wacky 2013 and no clue on his form, along with being unseeded and having a tough draw, he qualifies. He could come out roaring trying to prove the critics and doubters wrong if he can beat Istomin, Dimitrov and most likely Nishikori in order to make the semis. Against Hewitt/Simon in the semis, he would also have a good shot.
Predictions
Semis:
Federer d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Hewitt
Federer beat Anderson in their only head to head meeting in Paris this past year and I think he will come out strong and make his way to the final.
Dimitrov, who lost his only meeting with Hewitt last year, on grass, will also be ready to roll in 2014 and I also have him tipped to make the final to match up against the player he is compared to most often, Roger Federer.
Final:
Federer d. Dimitrov
Big Fed vs the player formerly known as Baby Fed. Their only head to head meeting came in Basel this past year with Federer winning a competitive match. I expect the same result here.
The 2014 season is already here with action starting up first at the Hopman Cup in Perth, Australia, The offseason, at least to us, has seemed much shorter this year and we will have to see what kind of form the players are in. The Hopman cup is a co-gender 2 person national team event with round robin play followed by a final between the winners of each group of 4 teams. Each match features men’s singles, women singles and a mixed doubles match: Best 2 out of 3. Hard Courts are, of course, the surface for the entire Australian swing.
Hyundai Hopman Cup
ITF Team Event
Perth, Australia
December 28-January 4, 2014
Prize Money $1,000,000
Group A: Poland, Canada, Italy, Australia
Poland
The lowest ranked Male professional in the field, current world number 288 Grzegorz Panfil will be part of the Polish tandem. The 25 year old who will turn 26 during the tournament. He played in qualifying for a few ATP events in 2013 but failed to reach the main draw for any of them, and otherwise split his time between future and challengers, primarily in Europe and mostly on clay.
His best result was a futures title last year and he did move up 200 spots in the rankings last year, hoping to continue that run of play and break into the top 200 or better in 2014.
Contrast that against the backdrop of the highest ranked women’s player at the tournament hailing from his home nation. Agnieszka Radwanska is here to win, not to represent. Having Janowicz withdraw could take some of the wind out of her sails and dent her singles performance. Or it could be a teaching moment.
Canada
Milos Raonic briefly broke into the top 10 in 2013, with 2 ATP titles and a Masters final, the most noteworthy thing on his body of work last year. He will try to top that this year as he continues to work with Ivan Ljubicic as his coach, a switch he made midway through last year that yielded great results. This will be everyone’s first look at the big serving Canadian in 2014. He is one of the top men in the field and the Canadian team could hit their stride if Eugenie Bouchard plays well.
Italy
Andreas Seppi kept himself in the top 30 by year end 2013, but did drop out of the 20, meaning the veteran Italian who turns 30 soon will have work to do this year. He was just above .500 in 2013, posting a 30-29 record that included 5 ATP semifinal showings and a challenger title at the end of the year. He’s a consistent quality player but he seems to have lost a little edge to his game compared to previous years. Time will tell if he returns to top form or continues to decline.
Speaking of veteran, Italy can’t do better than Flavia Pennetta on the women’s side. Though she’s 1-4 against Radwanska, she has beaten her in Australia and is 4-0 against Stosur. She’s never matched up against Bouchard, but she will do her part for Italy.
Australia
Everyone will be anxious to see Bernard Tomic play, and probably not for the best of reasons, the 21 year old Aussie slipped out of the top 50 after posting a 25-22 ATP record that was much worse than it appears given 7 of those wins came in Australia, where he went 7-1 in the month of January 2013, with an ATP title to defend coming up. He slumped hard in the fall of 2013 and with family and focus issues continuing to plague him, nobody really knows what to expect in terms of his form, mentality and fitness, none the less the pressure of playing at home in Australia will be intense this year.
And Sam Stosur. Who knows what to expect from her. Can she lend Tomic some gravitas? Nobody wants to do better in Hopman Cup than these two. If this pair succeeds in 2014, it begins here as a team.
Group B: USA, France, Czech Republic, Spain
USA
Big John Isner cemented himself as a top 15 player in 2013 with 2 ATP titles and a great 39-24 record on the ATP tour, he continues to play his best in the US, primarily on fast surfaces, but he has a great opportunity down under as he has no points to defend in the month of January after playing just 1 match last year because of injury, at the warm up tournament in Sydney, and then withdrawing from the 2013 AO. The US has a strong team this year with quality WTA player Sloane Stephens complementing Isner and they have a chance to win this thing. By all estimates, Stephens is ready to succeed early in the season Down Under, just as she did last year.
France
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing the big exo in Abu Dhabi that is going on right now and he beat Andy Murray thus far, meaning that his form seems good but he may be tired having to travel to Perth to play this event. He went 39-16 at the ATP level in 2013 with 1 title and had a good but not great year by his standards. He was dogged by knee problems yet again, primarily at the tail end of the year and hopefully he is fully healthy from all that and ready to play his exciting, flashy brand of tennis that is a fan favorite.
And look, he’s getting some help this year! Mathilde Johannson was an uninspired and underperforming choice for the French last year. This year, they have an improvement in Alize Cornet, who had a career year in 2013. Czech Republic
Nobody said you have to date each other to do Hopman Cup
35 year old Radek Stepanek is the veteran in this field, he went 16-17 at the ATP level in 2013 with some nice challenger results and a comeback from injury issues, he is a gifted doubles player and Petra Kvitova is a solid WTA player meaning the Czech team should have dark horse status at this tournament. Then there’s the whole X factor of their personal relationship. Help or hurt? It could have an impact.
Spain
Tommy Robredo withdrew for the Spanish team, meaning veteran journeyman Daniel Munoz De La Nava will be his replacement. The 31 year old has never broken into the top 120 and was 2-5 at the ATP level last year, only playing 2 challenger matches after the US Open, losing both. DMDLN is a decent hard court player but this Spanish team is probably the weakest team in the tournament put together, I don’t expect them to win any matches.
Annabel Medina Garrigues is a scrapper, but there is simply no leadership on this team.
Predictions:
Group A:
Italy d. Poland
Canada d. Australia
Canada d. Poland
Australia d. Italy
Canada d. Italy
Australia d. Poland
Canada advances as Milos should win all his singles matches. Bouchard should compete with all her opponents in women’s singles and Milos is a formidable weapon in the mixed doubles.
Radwanska should play well for Poland but Panfil is just not up to this level of competition.
The Aussies with Tomic/Stosur are really unpredictable, and the Italians are veteran and consistent but probably don’t have enough firepower to advance. Group B:
Czech Republic d. Spain
USA d. Spain
Czech Republic d. France
USA d. France
France d. Spain
USA d. Czech Republic
USA advances as Isner/Stephens is a strong duo that should be healthy and ready to rock.
Kvitova/Stepanek is also strong but Radek may struggle in the singles.
Spanish team is weakest overall and Tsonga/Cornet should compete but I don’t see them reaching the final.
Final:
USA d. Canada
Would be fun to see a North American Hopman Cup Final and Raonic-Isner will be a serve war that could go either way, but Stephens is probably a little better than Bouchard, and the doubles should also be fun, could go either way but I’ll pick the Yanks. (Steen)
And I’ll pick Team Canada. Sloane is 2-1 head to head with Bouchard in three of the closest matches you’ll find, and Isner is vs. Raonic 2-0 in a pair of tighty whiteys. The Canadians are due against the U.S. (Steve)
