Grigor Dimitrov, and French Stars Lucas Pouille and Richard Gasquet Lead Weakened Field at ATP Dubai Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships are a 500 level stop in Dubai on outdoor hard courts. Normally an event on the elite side of the 500 level, the field is relatively weak this year, opening up opportunities for ranking points and prize money for players outside of the top 10. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
Top seed Grigor Dimitrov has put together a solid season thus far. He should defeat local favorite Malek Jaziri, and either Robin Haase or Quentin Halys to reach the quarters. Philipp Kohlschreiber has an advantage to reach the quarters in his section. Kohli hasn’t had a great 2018, but Gleb Sakharov is his first opponent, then Mikhail Kukushkin or Stefanos Tsitsipas, both of whom are struggling. Kohli over the young Greek is my pick, with Dimitrov reaching the semis.
Roberto Bautista Agut is looking to get back on track against Florian Mayer first up, with Joao Sousa or Pierre-Hugues Herbert to follow. RBA should be good enough to reach the quarters. The section featuring Richard Gasquet vs. Borna Coric and Benoit Paire vs. Yoshihito Nishioka is the strongest of the draw. Paire and Gasquet have both been solid this year, and Coric has potential. I’ll go with Gasquet over Paire in round 2, with Gasquet knocking off RBA in the quarters.
Ernests Gulbis has qualified for two ATP tournaments this year. He’ll open with Marseille finalist Lucas Pouille. Given the fatigue factor, I’ll go with Gulbis to upset Pouille and also defeat Karen Khachanov, who is coming off a big title in Marseille. Khachanov opens with Denis Istomin. Yuichi Sugita or J.L. Struff should benefit big time in this section. Sugita opens with an in-form Ilya Ivashka, who reached his first ever ATP semi in Marseille. Struff faces a struggling Andreas Haider-Maurer. I’ll back Struff over Sugita and Gulbis in consecutive matches to reach the semis.
Yannick Maden is moving his way up the ATP rankings but Marseille quarterfinalist Damir Dzumhur should defeat him in the opening round. Evgeny Donskoy reached quarters in Delray Beach and should defeat Blaz Kavcic. I’ll back Dzumhur to reach the quarters from that section.
Filip Krajinovic faces Thomas Fabbiano, then Marcos Baghdatis or Viktor Troicki. The younger Serbian should get past Fabbiano and Baghdatis, then fall to Dzumhur in the quarters.
Predictions
Semis Dimitrov d. Gasquet
Dzumhur d. Struff
This should be Dimitrov’s week. Gasquet has a shot as well. The bottom half is relatively open, but I’ll back Dzumhur to get to the final before falling to Grisha.
Dominic Thiem continued his MEGA season with his second ATP title this month in Acapulco. The 500 level tournament is his biggest career result thus far and the 22 year old Austrian is making a push for the top 10. Thiem scored a comeback win in the final 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 over Bernard Tomic after Tomic was up 4-1 and 5-2 in the first set. Tomic had a good tournament and showed his own flashes of greatness but the 23 year old Aussie could maintain a consistent high level compared to Thiem’s newly aggressive tennis this year.
Thiem is 18-4 on the season with room to grow as he has two titles, and two semifinals already this year. He beat Damir Dzumhur, Grigor Dimitrov, and Sam Querrey in resounding fashion without dropping a set, and also came back from a set down against Dmitry Tursunov in his second match. The former top 15 player Dimitrov was plainly outclassed by Thiem who is two years his junior.
Tomic moved to 12-6 on the season and posted his best result after a post Australian slump. He got revenge against Rajeev Ram for a loss earlier this month, and then beat Adrian Mannarino, Illya Marchenko and Alexandr Dolgopolov to reach the final. Dolgo was on fire in the opening set, and had his chances in sets 2 and 3, but somehow Tomic dealt with his shotmaking to advance. Dolgopolov upset David Ferrer early in the tournament, and the other favorite Kei Nishikori lost to Querrey.
Veteran Max Mirnyi teamed up with Treat Huey to defeat Alexander Peya and Philipp Petzschner in the doubles final. Mirnyi needs a couple more wins to make it 700 in his doubles career.
The 500 level stop in Dubai saw world #4 Stan Wawrinka capture his second ATP title of the season. Wawrinka had a surprisingly easy path to the title after world #1 Novak Djokovic withdrew with an eye infection. Against unseeded veteran Marcos Baghdatis, he dazzled with his backhand in a great display of offense against offense from the baseline for a 6-4 7-6(13) victory.
Wawrinka had to fight back from a set and a break down, and work through a tough third set to beat serve and volleyer Sergiy Stakhovsky for the second week in a row, he was looking shaky early on, but wins over Franko Skugor and Philipp Kohlschreiber gave him momentum. Nick Kyrgios met him in the semifinals, as he had another good week on tour, but a back injury forced him to retire in set 2.
The Cypriot Baghdatis reached his first tour final since Atlanta last year, and he did so with surprising wins over Viktor Troicki, Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Feliciano Lopez, dropping just the first set to Lopez en route. Troicki and RBA had been in good form as of late, but both looked exhausted in sloppy second sets against the 30 year old.
Italians Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi won 14-12 in a third set super tiebreak against the Spanish Lopez brothers Feliciano and Marc to capture the doubles title. Lopez still had a great week overall with a semifinal in singles and a final in doubles after a slow start to 2016.
Pablo Cuevas defended his Sao Paulo title and won his second tournament in a row to move to 12-3 on the season, and cement his status as one of the best clay courters on tour. Cuevas is 10-1 on clay this year and dominated the Golden Swing with a quarterfinal in Buenos Aires, and titles in Rio and Sao Paulo.
His Sao Paulo triumph came with little signs of fatigue in a 7-6(4) 6-3 victory over Pablo Carreno Busta. He also beat Facundo Bagnis, the young upstart Thiago Monteiro, and Dusan Lajovic this week, dropping just a set to a promising Monteiro in some rather quick matches. Monteiro is 3-2 on tour this year after making his ATP main draw debut in Rio.
Carreno Busta was bageled in his opening set of the tournament against Albert Ramos but survived a third set tiebreak, and then went on to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver in three sets, Roberto Carballes Baena, and Inigo Cervantes, in quarter and semifinal blowouts. It was the first ever ATP final for Carreno Busta, but victory was not to be had as Cuevas proved too strong. Pablo should be a threat on European clay in the spring as well.
Julio Peralta and Horacio Zeballos won the doubles title over Carreno Busta/David Marrero.
2016 ATP Dubai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour will stop in the middle east once again for the 500 level hard court tournament in Dubai.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E.
February 22-27, 2016
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,249,215
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Stan Wawrinka (4)
3: Tomas Berdych (8)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (18)
The Dubai field has a big drop off outside of the marquee names, but it’s still a quality 500 level tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Feliciano Lopez vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
A battle of veteran Spaniards who have split their career hard court meetings. The serve and volleyer Lopez and the all-courter Garcia-Lopez have both gotten off to poor starts this season, and badly need to get in rhythm. Lopez should have a slight edge to snap his two match losing streak and reach round 2 on this fast surface. Lopez is a two-time former finalist in Dubai.
Pospisil has lost four straight, while the qualifier Pouille has an ATP quarterfinal already this season. Pospisil should serve well, but Pouille’s forehand gives him an edge to notch an upset and reach round 2.
(5)Viktor Troicki vs. Marcos Baghdatis
The veteran Baghdatis has 3 ATP wins this season, and a 4-1 record on hard courts against Troicki. The Serbian has been off the charts recently with a 12-4 record to start the season. With Troicki in fantastic form, he should edge Baghdatis, and perhaps post another deep run at this tournament.
The Rotterdam champion Klizan is 8-1 over his last nine matches, Kyrgios comes off his first ever ATP title in Marseille, as both are in fantastic form, and unfortunately one of these players has to suffer an early exit. Kyrgios is the stronger player if he can continue his momentum.
Top Half:
Novak Djokovic suffered a hard court loss in 2014 to Tommy Robredo, but he hasn’t lost a match in 2016 and he’s far and above the #1 player in the world right now, especially on a fast hard court. He should beat Robredo and ease past either qualifier Mikhail Youzhny or wild card Malek Jaziri for a spot in the quarterfinals. Youzhny is on an incredible 17 match winning streak, mostly at the challenger level, and the Russian veteran has fought his way back into tour level form after previously being a top 10 player. Expect to see more from him this year. Jaziri by contrast is off to a dreadful start to the season.
Lopez/Garcia-Lopez will face wild card Yuki Bhambri or Lukas Rosol for a spot in the quarterfinals. Bhambri hasn’t won a match this season, while Rosol is on a two match losing streak. I give Rosol a slight edge over Lopez to reach the quarters, though Djokovic is unlikely to drop a set en route to the semis.
4 seed Roberto Bautista Agut, and 5 seed Viktor Troicki are two of the most in-form players thus far in 2016. They are on track for a quarterfinal meeting, presuming RBA can handle Italian veteran Simone Bolelli, and then Hyeon Chung/Andreas Seppi, and Troicki can beat Baghdatis and the Pouille/Pospisil winner. Chung could use a win over Seppi to get his season going, RBA beat Troicki in the Sofia final, and thus has the edge to reach the semis. RBA has two ATP titles, and just three losses this season.
Bottom Half:
Stan Wawrinka suffered an early exit to his friend Benoit Paire in Marseille, and he is in shaky form right now. A struggling Sergiy Stakhovsky isn’t likely to oust him in round 1 though, Wawrinka beat Stako in a third set tiebreak in Marseille last week 10-8 in the 3rd. Wawrinka’s round 2 opponent will be either Teymuraz Gabashvili or qualifier Franko Skugor. The veteran Gabashvili can peak and win big matches, but Wawrinka is a clear favorite for the quarters.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is 5-2 in recent tournaments, he’ll open with struggling wild card Marsel Ilhan (1-4 in 2016). Kohli has a clear path to the quarters if he’s not upended by young gun Borna Coric in round 2. Coric opens with Jiri Vesely. Vesely has struggled in 2016 (1-4 record), while Coric has been poor since reaching the Chennai final to start the season. Kohlschreiber’s form should allow him to reach the quarters.
Wawrinka has never played Kohlschreiber on hard courts, and he should be on upset alert in the quarters. Both players have nifty one handed backhands, and I still give Wawrinka the edge to reach the semis.
Former Dubai finalist Tomas Berdych is also a favorite for the semis. Berdych opens with Joao Sousa, who is struggling mightily as of late, and then will face Thomas Fabbiano or Leonardo Mayer, both of whom have limited weapons compared to his power hitting game. Berdych could face Nick Kyrgios, who beat him in Marseille, in the quarters, if Kyrgios beats Klizan and Mikhail Kukushkin/Denis Istomin. Istomin hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Kukushkin retired in his last match. Given the fatigue factor, I have Berdych avenging his loss to Kyrgios and reaching the semis. Berdych also beat NK this year at the AO.
The unseeded young guns Kyrgios and Coric could reach the quarterfinals or better in Dubai. Kyrgios demonstrated his full range of attacking tennis in Marseille, and clearly has the talent to compete with the best in the game on a week to week basis. Backing up that Marseille win with another big semifinal would be a huge result for him, and we’ll see if it it comes to fruition.
Predictions
Semis
Djokovic d. Bautista Agut
Berdych d. Wawrinka
Djokovic has two previous wins in Dubai over RBA (3-0 h2h), even with RBA in the form of his career, the Serbian will have to beat himself to lose.
Berdych has had little success in recent years against Wawrinka, but Stan seemed off in Marseille, and I think the Czech will take advantage on a fast surface and reach the final.
Final
Djokovic d. Berdych
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Berdych in the last three seasons, and given he beat Tomas in Doha, this result is unlikely to be different. Novak is the clear favorite to continue his winning streak this week in Dubai.
The WTA tour heads to Dubai for Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. With 470 points available for the winner, who will take the rankings climb this week?
After being launched as a men’s only tournament in 1993, it became a joint event in 2001 and one of the best stays on the tour. Justine Henin has the tournament record with four titles followed by Venus Williams with three. Other former champions include WTA superstars Lindsay Davenport, Elena Dementieva, Martina Hingis, Petra Kvitova, Amélie Mauresmo and Caroline Wozniacki.
The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Tier: Premier
Location: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money: $1,734,900
Date: February 15th- February 20th
Top four seeds who receive a BYE (Ranking)
1. Simona Halep (3)
2. Garbine Muguruza (5)
3. Carla Suarez Navarro (8)
4. Petra Kvitova (9)
Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska were both scheduled to compete but withdrew prior to the tournament.
Out of the all the opening round matches this one stands out the most. Ivanovic is coming in off the back of a disappointing loss to Roberta Vinci in St Petersburg whilst Gavrilova is playing for the first time since a good run in Melbourne.
The Aussie has won their only previous match in Rome last year coming through in three sets, so she has proven she is capable of upsetting the former world number one.
This one could go three sets and feature plenty of momentum shifts. Definitely one to look out for when the tournament kicks off.
Belinda Bencic (Photo: Christopher Levy @Tennis_Shots)
(5) Belinda Bencic vs Jelena Jankovic
Coming off yet another good run in St Petersburg, Bencic is one of the players to watch this year as she continues her climb towards the top of the game.
However the young Swiss star could be slightly fatigued in Dubai and faces a tough opener against the more experienced Jankovic.
Both play a more counter punching game and although Bencic is currently the better player, Jankovic always has the potential to reel back to the years where she made number one in the world.
The fifth seed leads the head to head 2-1 with them tied 1-1 on a hard court. Who will win the fourth meeting?
Andrea Petkovic, Life Member Eintracht USA
Camila Giorgi vs Andrea Petkovic:
With Petkovic vs Giorgi you have a classic style clash with the power of the Italian against the counter punching of the German.
Giorgi holds a 3-1 head to head lead over Petkovic despite being ranked 17 places below, including a victory in Dubai two years a go. The world number 23 won their last meeting however in Cincinnati last year.
Petkovic’s bad form and Giorgi’s general up and down style of play could make for a messy encounter but it is still one to watch as it could go either way.
Draw Analysis
Halep’s Quarter:
Halep will be looking to turn her season around after a poor start that saw her exit the Australian Open in the first round. The defending champion will be the tournament favourite, but there are some tricky roadblocks ahead. After an opening round Bye the Romanian will begin her tournament against the winner of Ivanovic and Gavrilova. It is a tough match for the out of form Halep that could see another early exit.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is the other seed in this section and has a tough opener of her own against Julia Goerges. Barbora Strycova will likely wait the winner in round two as the Czech has drawn a qualifier in her opening round. Kuznetsova vs Strycova could be a lengthy and dramatic affair that could go either way.
Suarez Navarro’s quarter:
Spain is well represented in the draw with their top two players both being seeded. Suarez Navarro, being the third seed, will receive an opening round BYE before meeting the winner of Caroline Garcia vs Anna Schmiedlova. Two different propositions with Garcia being the aggressor and Schmiedlova being a more defensive minded player. The Frenchwoman will be full of confidence after her Fed Cup exploits.
Bencic will be another player that comes into Dubai in good form after a good run in St Petersburg, but she faces a tough first rounder against Jankovic. It won’t get much easier in round two wither with Petkovic or Giorgi waiting in the wings. It’s a tough draw for the Swiss and with fatigue possibly a factor, don’t be surprised to see an upset.
Kvitova’s quarter:
The Czech took a wildcard into the tournament in order to gain some momentum after her ranking fell to ninth in the world. The two time Grand Slam champion has the extra time to prepare due to her seeding and will therefore meet the winner of Madison Brengle vs Ekaterina Makarova in round two. Makarova could be a very tricky test in a battle of the lefties.
Vinci, like Bencic, will come into Dubai off the back of a good run in St Petersburg. The Italian faces a qualifier in round one before meeting compatriot and former doubles partner Sara Errani in round two. Who will win the battle of the former doubles champions?
Muguruza’s quarter:
Muguruza has also not enjoyed the best start to 2015 and has struggled to find her best form whilst struggling with a foot injury. The Spaniard will open her tournament in round two against either a qualifier or Elina Svitolina in round two. A match against the Ukrainian will be an interesting one between two of the tour’s best young talents.
Like Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova took a wildcard into the event and might fancy her chances at taking the title. The Czech will have a big serving battle against Coco Vandeweghe before meeting the winner of Kristina Mladenovic vs Lesia Tsurenko.
David Ferrer extended his dominance of the Abierto Mexicano in Acapulco, as the multi surface champion claimed his fourth title at the tournament with a surprisingly easy 6-3 7-5 win over Kei Nishikori.
Ferrer improves to 18-1 on the season after the tournament, and he hasn’t lost a match since losing to Nishikori in Melbourne, with titles in Doha and Rio previously this year, giving him three titles on the season. Ferrer is an early leader out of the gate most ATP titles.
Nishikori played poorly compared to their meeting in Melbourne, spraying too many errors as he got off to a slow start and never truly recovered, while Ferrer was much more reliable, making for an opponent that was too formidable for the newly top 5 Nishikori.
Ferrer had some tough matches this week,he beat Igor Sijsling in straights with one set that was competitive, then got past Marinko Matosevic in straights and Bernard Tomic in 3 sets, 6-1 in the third. In the semis, he dropped the opening set to qualifier Ryan Harrison, who shockingly reached the semis, beating Grigor Dimitrov en route, along with Ivo Karlovic, but Harrison ran out of gas after that and Ferrer won the next 12 games for a three set win.
Nishikori performed better in his other matches this week than he did in the final, the Japanese number one extended his winning streak from his title in Memphis with wins over Alejandro Gonzalez, Rendy Lu, and Alex Dolgopolov without dropping a set, and then he beat Kevin Anderson once again in 3 sets.
Ivan Dodig and Marcelo Melo won the doubles title over Santiago Gonzalez and Mariusz Frystenberg, as the Mexican doubles specialist Gonzalez was denied a title on home soil.
Roger Federer claimed an untouchable seventh title in Dubai, as he and Novak Djokovic treated fans to another thrilling duel in their long running rivalry. Djokovic had his chances all match but Federer was remarkably clutch, saving all 7 break points faced, while breaking Djokovic on his only chance in each set for the title. Federer was dominant behind his first serve with 12 aces, while the rallying and aggressive play by both players was sublime and graceful. With the win, Federer proves that he remains a forced to be reckoned with against any opponent on tour, including the world number 1.
Federer faced little in the way of opposition all week as he dominated Mikhail Youzhny, Fernando Verdasco, Richard Gasquet, and the teenager Borna Coric, who reached the semifinals as a lucky loser. In the process, Coric shockingly dominated a listless Andy Murray in straights, and also took out Marcos Baghdatis and Malek Jaziri in 3 sets. Coric had a lot of luck this week in general, notably Baghdatis retired before a third set tiebreak with cramps. The 33 year old world number 2 now has two ATP titles on the season.
Djokovic improved to 13-2 on the year with straight set wins over Vasek Pospisil, Andrey Golubev,and surprise quarterfinalist Marsel Ilhan. He played a strange semifinal against Tomas Berdych, where he posted a first set bagel, then shockingly lost the second set, after breaking back no less,finally finishing of the match 6-4 in the third as Berdych came up just short of a quality comeback.
The veteran pairing of Rohan Bopanna and Daniel Nestor defeated fellow veterans Nenad Zimonjic and Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi in the doubles final.
Rafael Nadal refused to be denied a title on the Golden Swing on South American clay, as he got over the hump and took out Juan Monaco, his good friend and frequent doubles partner, 6-4 6-1. Monaco didn’t play poorly but he had little chance going into the final against an opponent he knows so well, and he seemed to be resigned to defeat at the start.
Rafa didn’t drop a set this week, not letting the letdown of a semifinal loss in Rio get to him, the Spanish number one and King of Clay beat all Argentine opponents this week, breaking local hearts in BA. His first win came against Facundo Arguello, then he scored wins over Federico Delbonis and Carlos Berlocq to reach the final, all without dropping a set, as Berlocq was perhaps his toughest opponent of the tournament.
Pico Monaco beat Maximo Gonzalez in round 1, then upset the highest ranked Argentine player, Leonardo Mayer 6-4 6-4. In the quarters he snuck past an in-form Pablo Cuevas in 3 sets, 6-4 in the third, and in the semis he ground his way past Nicolas Almagro 6-4 in the third set. That match was one he had every reason to take in straights but was forced to the distance in. By virtue of reaching the final, Monaco extends his streak of reaching at least one ATP final every year since 2008. He also drops to 1-2 in Argentina Open finals.
Jarkko Nieminen and Andre Sa beat Pablo Andujar and Oliver Marach in the doubles final.
Tennis Atlantic 2015 ATP Draw Challenge Week 8 (Acapulco, Dubai, Buenos Aires) Staff, Tennis Atlantic
Two 500 pointers are at stake with Acapulco and Dubai, while 250 points can be gained from the clay court tournament in Buenos Aires, as a vast majority of the ATP World Tour’s stars are in action this week.
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haase vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Gabashvili vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Kokkinakis vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Estrella, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Qualifier, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Haider-Maurer, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Haider-Maurer vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Haider-Maurer vs. Ferrer Champion: Ferrer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Troicki, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Kamke vs. Tomic, Matosevic vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Johnson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Tomic vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Johnson, Dimitrov vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Dimitrov Champion: Nishikori
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nishikori vs. Lu, Haider-Maurer vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Johnson, Troicki vs. Giraldo, Karlovic vs. Kokkinakis, Young vs. Dimitrov, Becker vs. Mannarino, Granollers vs. Ferrer Quarterfinals: Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov, Anderson vs. Troicki, Karlovic vs. Dimitrov, Mannarino vs. Ferrer Semifinals: Nishikori vs. Anderson, Karlovic vs. Ferrer Final: Nishikori vs. Ferrer Champion: Nishikori
Opinions are mixed on how David Ferrer will fare coming off his Rio title, but Kei Nishikori is the consensus pick to win his second ATP title of the year, while defending champ Grigor Dimitrov is predicted to come up just short by most of our analysts.
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Baghdatis vs. Kohlschreiber, McGee vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Baghdatis vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Martin, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Stakhovsky, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Djokovic
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Ilhan vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Rosol vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Seppi, Verdasco vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Gulbis, Goffin vs. Murray, Seppi vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Murray Champion: Murray
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Djokovic vs. Golubev, Zverev vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Bolelli, Stakhovsky vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Kohlschreiber, Sousa vs. Murray, Bautista Agut vs. Gasquet, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Lopez, Berdych vs. Istomin, Goffin vs. Murray, Gasquet vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Berdych, Murray vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Federer
2 people have Fed as champ, 2 people have Novak as champ, and everyone has the same semifinal pairings this week, in a draw that is expected to remain true to form late into the tournament.
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Vesely, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Courtney Massey’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Lorenzi vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Andujar vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Lorenzi, Fognini vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Qualifier, Andujar vs. Nieminen Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Mayer vs. Nieminen Final: Nadal vs. Mayer Champion: Nadal
Chris de Waard’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Carreno-Busta, Fognini vs. Schwartzman, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Andreozzi vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Ramos, Olivo vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Olivo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Jeff McMillan’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Qualifier, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Rola, Mayer vs. Gonzalez, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Bellucci, Fognini vs. Qualifier, Mayer vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Fognini, Cuevas vs. Robredo Final: Nadal vs. Cuevas Champion: Nadal
Niall Clarke’s predictions
Round 2 Matches: Nadal vs. Montanes, Bellucci vs. Delbonis, Fognini vs. Berlocq, Qualifier vs. Vesely, Mayer vs. Monaco, Qualifier vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Zeballos, Nieminen vs. Robredo Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Berlocq vs. Vesely, Monaco vs. Cuevas, Almagro vs. Robredo Semifinals: Nadal vs. Berlocq, Monaco vs. Almagro Final: Nadal vs. Monaco Champion: Nadal
Nobody appears to be comfortable picking against Nadal on clay, with Pablo Cuevas a favorite for the final.
Courtney blew the rest of the field out of the water this week in Delray, taking the title as her favorite Ernests Gulbis has before, she was the only one to correctly predict Ivo Karlovic as champion.
Jeff makes a big move this week, rising from 4th to second with a tremendous 800 point gain, Courtney won an event but actually dropped one spot into third, while Niall remains bringing up the rear.
Halep Claims 10th WTA Title, Super Sara Wins Rio Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
The WTA tour stopped on opposite sides of the globe this week for events in Doha and Rio. The number one was the key number of the week as the top seed’s at both events ran out successful.
WTA Dubai
Top seed Simona Halep overcame the power of Pliskova to claim her 10th WTA title. The Romanian got it done in two tight sets 6-4,7-6(4) and as a result, she climbs back up to No.3 in the world.
Halep began the match well, countering the power of her opponent smoothly with great effect, and at 3-3 the world number four got her reward as she broke the Czech to love. From there, Halep went on to serve out the first set comfortably to wrap it up in 41 minutes.
The 2nd set, however, didn’t go as smoothly. Halep lost her serve early in the 2nd to go a break down, but the Romanian broke straight back to even it at 2-2. The players managed to hold serve until 3-3, which is when the chaos ensued. Halep looked to have the match sealed when she broke at 3-3, but Pliskova didn’t stop fighting and broke straight back. Halep re-established a break advantage by breaking the Czech again, but she failed to serve it out with Pliskova saving match point along the way. Halep would have another chance to serve it out at 6-5, but yet again she failed to convert a match point, and thus we were treated to a second set tie-breaker. Plsikova was the first to strike, getting the mini-break at 3-3; she wouldn’t win another point on serve. Halep broke back and gained the lead giving her the opportunity to serve out the match. Third time was the charm for Halep who converted on her third match point to take the Dubai crown.
“I’m very happy right now. I cannot explain in words how I feel,” Halep said post match. “It’s an amazing title for me. It’s very important for my career. I’m really happy and just want to enjoy this moment.
She added. “At the beginning of the tournament some people asked me if I felt pressure because I was the No.1 seed. I said no, because I wasn’t thinking about it, and I just wanted to go on court and play match by match, because everyone would play really well here. And I played with big players like Makarova, Pliskova, Wozniacki – she was No.1 two years. So it’s honestly just an amazing victory for me.”
Despite the tough loss, Pliskova can certainly hold her head up high. This week has been a landmark week for the young Czech as she reached her first Premier 5 final, and obtained a career high ranking of 13.
“I was trying to turn it around, but even if I won the second set, I don’t know if I would have won the whole match,” she said. “It would still have been hard because she doesn’t give up on any point. She runs really, really well, and it’s hard to kill the ball against her. She really gets everything back.”
“I lost, so I’m not really happy right now, but obviously I’m happy for the week and for the last two or three weeks I had. I had so many matches here and beat great players – I’m not disappointed.”
In the doubles, Timea babos and Kristina Mladenovic defeated Spanish pairing Garbine Muguruza and Carla Suarez Navarro 6-3,6-2 to take the title.
WTA Rio
Go Like Hell.
Sara Errani has edged closer to the top 10 by ending the breakthrough run of Anna Schmiedlova to win yet another clay court title in Rio.
Schmiedlova had never reached a quarter final of a WTA event before this tournament, let alone a final, and in the first set she put the former Roland Garros finalist under all sorts of pressure. The youngster pushed it all the way to a tiebreak, but from this point it was all Errani. The top seed raced through the tiebreak 7-2, to give herself a set lead after 73 long minutes.
The Italian carried that form into the second set where she quickly raced into a 4-0 lead before closing the match out on serve, 6-1.
With this result, Errani has now won eight WTA titles, and she inches ever closer to re-entering the top 10. Next week, the Italian will climb 4 places to number 12 in the world, and with clay season just around the corner, Errani has kicked into form just at the right time.
“The first set was tough. We played more than an hour,” Errani said post match. “We were both fighting hard in that set – she was playing very well and not giving me anything, really. It was also the first time I played her so I needed some time to find my tactics. I was happy I managed to win that set, and in the second set things started going much more my way. I think I was just physically stronger in the end.”
“Winning a title is always special. This tournament was great and I leave with only good memories.”
Schmiedlova, like Pliskova, can leave in good spirits despite the loss. The world number 59 had a landmark week in Rio, and will be looking to go one further in her next attempt.
“She was moving really well and she’s a really great player,” Schmiedlova said. “I played some very good tennis in the first set – the second set was worse, but I’m so happy I was in the final.
“This week gave me a lot of confidence. I hope it helps me in my next tournaments.” The youngster added.
Ysaline Bonaventure and Rebecca Peterson won the doubles title after their final opponents Irina Begu and Maria Irigoyen retired after 3 games.
Borna Coric stunned as James Ward and Lucas Pouille move into the 2015 ATP Dubai main draw Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
World 349 Fabrice Martin caused the biggest shock of the entire qualification tournament at the 2015 ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships with a 6-3 6-7(5-7) 7-6(7-5) win over second seed Borna Ćorić in their final round qualifying encounter. Going into the final qualification round Martin had beaten 7th seed Evgeny Donskoy in straight sets. At the start of the match Martin swiftly took control of things as he took the first set 6-3 after only 30 minutes against world number 85 Coric. Coric, one of the most promising young players on the ATP tour, responded more positively in the second set as he charged to a 4-1 lead. The lead was then gradually evaporated by Martin as he clawed his way back to level the set at 5-5 before forcing it into a tie-break. The tie-break consisted of a series of lost of service points for both players (7/12 points played) before Coric was finally able to take the tie-break with his second set point. Fortunately the serving issues in the tie-break wasn’t prevalent in the final set as both players remained solid on their serve throughout to force it into yet another tie-break. In the final tie break there was one break of serve, however, it was the most vital point. Serving 3-4 down Coric was broken by Martin to open up a mini lead. Coric was unable to narrow this lead as the Frenchman went on to take the match. This is now the first time in Martin’s career that he has qualified for the main draw of any ATP event (250 and over) at the age of 27. He also broke a 7 match losing streak in all tournament matches going into the tournament.
The UK’s James Ward continued his quest to reach the top 100 in the ATP rankings for the first time in his career with a hard fought win over Marius Copil. The British number two had to come from a set down before edging Copil out 6-7 (3-7) 6-4 6-4 during a match lasting just over two hours. After being edged out in the first set tie-break, Ward remained consistent on his serve as he didn’t drop a single service game in the following two sets. Ward is currently ranked 106 in the world and is edging tantalizingly close towards his top 100 goal.
Like Ward, 20-year-old Frenchman Lucas Pouille also had a testing match against world 256 Laslo Djere. In the first round Djere stunned the top seed, Jürgen Melzer, in three sets to set up a showdown against Poullie. Djere looked once again on course to produce another upset as he took the first set in a tie-break and was 3-1 up in the second set. Things then started to rapidly unravel for the Serbian as Pouille broke back and won five consecutive games to force the match into a deciding set. In the final set both players serves were fragile with three consecutive breaks of serves (two for Djere and once for Pouille). Pouille finally held his serve as he edged to a 3-1 lead to at last get a strong foothold in the match. Then yet another falter on the Djere serve gave the Frenchman yet another break as he cruise to take the match 6-7 (3-7) 6-3 6-2.
Finally joining Martin, Ward and the in-form Pouille in the main draw will be Marsel İlhan. Ilhan is the only player to have qualified for the main draw without dropping a single set. In the final round Ilhan faced 35-year-old Jan Hernych. The Turkish tennis player dropped his serve only once as he took the match 6-4 6-4.
Martin will face Andrey Golubev in the main draw, while Ward will face Feliciano Lopez, Pouille will face Simone Bolelli, and Ilhan will face Alex Zverev.
2015 ATP Acapulco, Dubai, and Buenos Aires Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of 500 series events on hard courts this week are the highlight of the ATP calendar, as most stars will take to the courts in Mexico or Dubai, meanwhile, the ATP Golden Swing on clay concludes in Buenos Aires, with those who prefer the dirt taking their talents to Argentina for the 250 level event.
ATP Acapulco
2015 ATP Acapulco Preview
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $1,414,550
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
4: Kevin Anderson (15)
The seed cutoff is 40 (Benjamin Becker), and 4 of the top 20 are participating in this 500 level event this week.
Estrella is in tremendous form at the moment, he won the Morelos challenger on hard courts in Mexico, after winning his maiden ATP title in Quito. Lu, the steady veteran baseliner, reached the quarters in Delray, with an upset win over Kevin Anderson. I have Estrella winning this matchup given how well the veteran is playing right now, but it could go either way.
Bernard Tomic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players come off semifinals in Delray, Tomic beat Viktor Troicki en route later losing to Donald Young, while Mannarino beat Lu, and also Denis Kudla, before falling to eventual champion Ivo Karlovic. Tomic should be favored as he’s in better recent form and has won consecutive matches in every tournament he’s played this season (12-5 ATP record in 2015), expect a quality contest all the same though.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori opens with a qualifier, and then the Estrella/Lu winner, Estrella is a dangerous opponent right now, but the top 5, and normally consistent Nishikori, should reach the quarterfinals with Sam Groth/Alex Dolgopolov his most likely opponent. The winner of Groth/Dolgopolov, will face Robin Haase or Rio semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2. Dolgo was a quarterfinalist in Delray, and I give him a slight edge to beat Groth, and then Haase to reach the quarters here. Nishikori, who won the title in Memphis, and has made quarterfinals or better at every tournament this season (10-2 ATP record), is 2-0 in the h2h against Dolgo, with both wins coming on hard court, so I favor Asia’s top player over the unpredictable Dolgopolov for a spot in the semifinals.
Kevin Anderson, a finalist last year, will open with fellow big server Dustin Brown. Though Anderson lost early in Delray, he was a finalist in Memphis, and I have him getting through Brown, and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters. Johnson hasn’t lost in the opening round of any tournament this year (9-5 ATP record including consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Memphis). Johnson will open with Ivan Dodig, who has been thus far unable to return to his previous top 40 form this year. Anderson already has 2 wins against Johnson this year without dropping a set in Memphis and Auckland, and that’s why he’s the quarterfinal favorite.
Viktor Troicki, who lost to Tomic in Delray, has a reasonable chance at another quarterfinal showing, he opens with Mexican wild card Daniel Garza, who has some of the worst physical conditioning I’ve ever seen in a professional tennis player. After that, Troicki is likely to face Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo is 2-0 against Troicki, including a hard court win, but he retired in his last match in Rio, and given the surface, with Troicki already having an ATP title, and a quarterfinal on his resume this year, the Serbian should be favored. Troicki beat Anderson once three and a half years ago in Washington, and that match could go either way but with Anderson having previous success here, I have him into the semifinals over Troicki.
Rio champion David Ferrer opens with Igor Sijsling, who continues to struggle having lost three straight, even if Ferrer is a bit worn down, he only has one loss on the season, with two ATP titles (Doha and Rio), and with that in mind he should roll past Sijsling and then Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers to reach the quarters. Matosevic has struggled this year (2-5 ATP record), while Granollers has a lone good showing this year in Zagreb (semifinals) I have Ferrer over Granollers in my bracket. Ferrer is 3-1 on hard courts against him, though Granollers won their last meeting in Tokyo.
The Tomic/Mannarino winner is a possible quarterfinal opponent for Ferrer, but watch out for 8 seed Benjamin Becker as well. Becker, who comes off a round 1 loss in Memphis, and is 2-4 on the year, opens with Tobias Kamke, a fellow German. Becker is 3-0 against Tomic, though they have never met on a hard court surface, I personally have Tomic into the quarters against Ferrer in my own bracket. Ferrer is 2-0 against Tomic, with both meetings on hard courts, and he has never dropped a set against the Aussie, still fatigue may be a factor, giving Tomic a shot at the semis.. In my own bracket I’m going with Ferrer, who has had an under the radar solid season already and isn’t presently showing signs of decline. Ferrer was only pushed to 3 sets once last week in Rio.
Defending champ Grigor Dimitrov has failed to impress this year, the Bulgarian number one opens with Filip Krajinovic in round 1, he should get through that, but Donald Young should give him a round 2 test, unless fatigue is a factor. Young, a finalist in Delray, and semifinalist in Memphis, opens with a qualifier, and he has two previous hard court wins against Dimitrov, but Dimitrov has also won twice on hard courts, with three of their four hard court meetings going 3 sets. Dimitrov hasn’t played like a top 10 player thus far but given his previous success here, and Young’s fatigue, I have Dimitrov into the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic, the Delray champion, has an interesting draw, in theory he should comfortably reach the quarterfinals, given his opponents, Teymuraz Gabashvili and Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, are not exactly hard court superstars, but at his age, one has to wonder if he will be fatigued, creating an opening for a qualifier, or one of those other two players to reach the quarterfinals. I don’t trust Karlovic’s fitness and thus I have Gabashvili through, and also I have him over Lajovic, who may fall to a qualifier, to reach the quarterfinals. Gabashvili has lost three straight, while Lajovic has lost two straight and he’s normally poor on hard courts. All the same Dimitrov has a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event, and should ease his way into the semifinals.
Viktor Troicki is a possible semifinalist this week, but I give Tomic the official designation because he’s been consistent this year, which is a surprising thing to say, given he used to not be, and if Ferrer is fatigued, he has a shot to score a top 10 win and get himself to the semis, where Dimitrov, a beatable opponent, is most likely to await. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Tomic in the h2h, but Tomic has had a good season and he seems due to reach a final, though I’m not predicting it, the possibility is there.
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Nishikori just beat Anderson in Memphis, and should do so again, meanwhile, Dimitrov is 0-2 against Ferrer on an outdoor hard court but given the fatigue factor, I have Dimitrov regaining form and reaching the final this week thanks to a lucky draw.
Final: Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Nishikori is 2-0, with both wins coming on hard courts, against Dimitrov, given his solid season, he should win his second ATP title of the year in Acapulco as the top seed.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $2,082,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (8)
The seed cutoff is 20 (David Goffin), as Dubai has a very top heavy field, with 4 of the top 10, and 8 of the top 20 participating.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Vasek Pospisil
Djokovic beat Pospisil in their only meeting, a competitive contest last year in Beijing, and the Australian Open champion should once again advance to round 2 at a tournament he has won four times prior, however the young Canadian has game and this isn’t the easiest of round 1 matchups for the world number 1, Pospisil is 2-2 over his last four, and may be able to at least push the sets deep here.
Simone Bolelli vs. (Q)Lucas Pouille
One of the numerous matchups this week slated between in-form players, Bolelli has two ATP quarterfinals on his resume this year, most recently he reached the quarters in Marseille by upsetting top 10 player Milos Raonic in 3 sets. Pouille has risen to the occasion this year as well, the young Frenchman qualified with a pair of wins, and he was also a semifinalist in Auckland this year. Bolelli should be favored given his experience, and good recent form, but look for Pouille to test him, in a match that could go either way.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Goffin, and most recently crushed him at the Australian Open, in a poor showing for the Belgian. Baghdatis has gotten his 2015 off to a strong start with a challenger final, a a third round showing in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Zagreb. Goffin meanwhile has not played as well this season, compared to last, he hasn’t posted better than a quarterfinal, and he’s just 2-4 over his last six matches, most recently he retired in Marseille against Dominic Thiem. With that in mind, though Goffin is much higher ranked, look for Baghdatis to move to 3-0 in the h2h and notch an upset to reach round 2.
Andreas Seppi vs. Richard Gasquet
Two players who have started the season in good form, Seppi has an ATP final (Zagreb), an ATP semifinal (Doha), and a second week appearance at the Australian Open on his resume thus far, resulting in an overall 11-5 ATP record this year, while Gasquet is 7-2 with a title in Montpellier on his resume. The shotmaking, tactically agile veterans have met five times previously, most recently back in 2012, and Gasquet is 4-1 in those meetings, with his lone loss coming on clay. Gasquet should be favored here but Seppi cannot be counted out, he’s improved his game considerably it seems this season, compared to previous seasons, and this match should at minimum not be a routine affair.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This should be quite a high quality contest, Verdasco, who won the last hard court meeting between these Spaniards in 2012 is a slight favorite. He’s had a somewhat average season thus far with a 6-4 ATP record. Dasco took his talents to the golden swing for a couple of tournaments and is now back on hard courts while GGL has been off to a hot start in 2015 sticking to the hard courts. Garcia-Lopez won Zagreb, and already has 10 wins on the season (contrasted with 4 losses, two of which came at the racquet of top 10 player Stan Wawrinka in competitive contests). I personally have GGL winning this one, his play has been quite impressive thus far, and he is outperforming Verdasco right now.
Djokovic should be able to roll to the semifinals here, after Pospisil, Andrey Golubev or qualifier Fabrice Martin await, and then it should be Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. Lopez has generally lived up to his high ranking thus far this season (6-3 on the year), and he should defeat James Ward and Marsel Ilhan or Alex Zverev, but I give him little chance against Novak who he is 0-5 in his career against. The only time he took a set was in their Dubai 2011 meeting. On an interesting note about Martin-Golubev, Martin broke a seven match losing streak dating back to last season to qualify and he beat Borna Coric notably in those qualies, while Golubev is just 1-5 this season with four straight losses. Perhaps the recent boost to Martin’s confidence will get him through to round 2. Zverev should be the one to face Lopez, as he just beat Ilhan in Marseille qualifying a week prior.
Tomas Berdych, who has been solid this season with two ATP finals (Doha and Rotterdam), and of course that semifinal at the Australian Open on his resume already, opens with Jeremy Chardy, a quarterfinalist in Marseille. Berdych is 2-0 against Chardy, and does what the Frenchman is best at, better than he does, so I have little doubt it will be Berdych, who has made two consecutive finals here into round 2 against the Bolelli/Pouille winner. That should be a quality contest, and if Bolelli his Berdych’s round 2 opponent, the Italian has beaten the Czech twice before (2-3 h2h), so he may be able to do some damage, but once again the confidence pick should be Berdych as a quarterfinalist at least in Dubai.
Look for Berdych to face Sergiy Stakhovsky in that quarterfinal, the Ukrainian is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, he opens with Lukas Rosol, who he just dispatched in Marseille (the Czech is just 1-7 over his last 8 matches dating back to last season), and then will face Denis Istomin or Ernests Gulbis. Both players are in awful form, Istomin is just 2-6 on the year, with three straight losses, while Gulbis is yet to win a match this season (0-4), with no sets won in his previous two losses against Dominic Thiem and Jeremy Chardy. Given Gulbis is the moodier player compared to Istomin, I have Istomin through, and then Stako to take him out comfortably. Stako has just one opening round loss this year, and he made the quarters in Rotterdam and the semis in Marseille consecutively, notably knocking off Stan Wawrinka in Marseille. Stako is 2-2 on a hard court against Istomin, but form favors him strongly. Given Berdych has a higher ranking, more accomplishments, a 3-0 h2h, and a better skillset than Stako, look for a Djokovic vs. Berdych semifinal this week.
Bottom Half:
Since 2009, only Djokovic, and Roger Federer, a six time Dubai champion, and the defending champion, have won the title here in the UAE. Federer will open his quest to repeat as champion against struggling veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who is a shell of his old self. Federer is an incredible 16-0 against the Russian over his career, and Youzhny is just 2-5 over his last seven matches dating back to last year. Federer could be tested a bit more against the Garcia-Lopez/Verdasco winner. If it’s GGL, as I have in my bracket, Federer is 3-0 against him, and should be able to make it 4-0 in reaching the quarterfinals. Federer is 5-0 against Verdasco if that is his opponent, and would make it 6-0.
Look for Seppi/Gasquet in the quarters for Federer, Roberto Bautista Agut is also an option here. RBA opens with Dominic Thiem, who he has already beaten twice this season, including last week in Marseille where he reached the semis. This is a difficult section to predict, RBA is 1-0 against both Seppi and Gasquet, but I feel like both of those players are outperforming the Spaniard right now and thusly I have Gasquet in the quarterfinals of my own bracket, with any of those 3 players having a case to make it that far. Gasquet has never beaten Federer on a hard court (0-7 including a Dubai loss) so Fed should reach the semis. If Seppi is his quarterfinal opponent, that would of course be a reprisal of the Italian’s shocking victory in Melbourne, but even still I would pick Federer to get his revenge and reach the semis.
Andy Murray, a one time finalist in Dubai who has played well thus far this season, opens with Gilles Muller, another in-form unseeded player to watch. Murray is 1-0 against Muller who reached the second week in Melbourne, and has an ATP semi and two ATP quarterfinals already on his resume this year. Murray, the AO finalist, most recently made the quarters in Rotterdam where he was upset by Gilles Simon. After Muller tests Murray, expect him to also take out Joao Sousa, who faces wild card James McGee in the first round. The journeyman McGee is an odd wild card selection, but all the same Murray is 4-0 against Sousa including a win this year at the Australian Open. Sousa has lost three straight matches though he has an ATP semifinal on his resume this year (Montpellier).
Murray could face Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters, after Goffin, it would be Malek Jaziri or Philipp Kohlschreiber for him in round 2. Jaziri tends to peak for these events in the Arab world but after a good showing at the Australian Open he’s in terrible form with three straight losses, most recently in Delray at the hands of Bernard Tomic. Kohlschreiber has lost two straight and is just 2-5 on the season, but even still I favor him over Jaziri. That said Baghdatis is playing much better than Kohli right now and has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts, pointing to the Cypriot to reach the quarters.The aggressive Baghdatis has two previous hard court wins against Murray, who has won their last two hard court meetings for a 2-2 overall hard court h2h, and they almost always tend to play competitive contests, especially on fast surfaces, but Murray is likely to have more left in the tank these days and thus I have him into the semifinals.
The Cypriot appears to be motivated, fitter, and striking the ball much better in 2015, having experienced a bit of a career resurgence as of late when many thought he was near retirement. In my mind he’s the favorite to at minimum reach the quarterfinals, and Murray is beatable, as he’s proven before, so semis are a possible outcome for him this week, which would be remarkable given he entered this top heavy, 500 level event as a wild card.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic has never lost to Berdych on a hard court, in a ton of meetings, including the 2013 Dubai final, and with that in mind, I don’t see any reason to pick against a Djokovic vs. Federer Dubai final this week given prior history and present form.
Federer has won three straight hard court meetings against Murray and he tends to play exceptionally well in Dubai, giving him the slight edge to reach the final this week.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai, and their last Dubai meeting in 3 sets last year, but Djokovic played tremendous in Melbourne, and I still have to pick him on an outdoor hard court almost every time. This matchup could go either way, both players know each other well, and know how to beat the other, so it’s a really difficult prediction all the same, with my gut favoring the world number 1.
Argentina Open presented by Buenos Aires Ciudad
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 23-March 1, 2015
Prize Money: $500,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: Tommy Robredo (18)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Fabio Fognini (28)
For a 250 event, with a pair of 500s also on the calendar the same week, Buenos Aires is actually quite solid, with Nadal headlining and a host of clay courters joining him on the undercard. Everyone in the field this week has taken part in one or more previous Golden Swing events (Quito, Sao Paulo or Rio)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Pablo Andujar vs. Nicolas Almagro
Andujar is a seed, but Almagro is 3-0 in the h2h, including 2-0 on clay. Almagro has gone 2-2 on the Golden swing thus far with both of his losses coming in three setters against Pablo Cuevas. Andujar is 1-2, and isn’t playing that well right now, with that in mind the 2011 BA champ Almagro should advance to round 2 with a win in this all-Spanish encounter.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, a semifinalist in Rio, will face Albert Montanes or a qualifier in round 1. Nadal is 5-0 against Montanes with all meetings coming on clay, and his veteran Spanish counterpart has never taken a set against him. Next for Nadal is likely to be the winner of Federico Delbonis vs. Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci, who just lost to Nadal in Rio, will face Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. The h2h is 1-1 and both players have lost three straight matches, but I give Bellucci, the more skilled player, the slighest of edges in that one. Delbonis has Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, he lost an incredible quarterfinal match against Fabio Fognini in Rio, saving more than a half dozen match points before falling in a third set tiebreak. Before that, Delbonis was struggling, and likewise PCB has been up and down, he beat Carlos Berlocq, before losing to Nadal in Rio. I have Delbonis as a quarterfinalist yet again this week, given the home soil advantage, and then Nadal should take him out to reach the semis. The h2h between Delbonis and Bellucci is 3-2 in favor of Delbonis with all meetings coming on clay, and all of them being close encounters. Nadal is 1-0 against Delbonis with that win coming on clay in 2013.
Rio finalist Fabio Fognini, who found some of his best form in months to reach the final there, notably upsetting Nadal, will open with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Carlos Berlocq. I have Fognini beating Berlocq in round 2, after Berlocq wins the all Argentina round 1 battle. Fognini had started the season just 1-3, but as mentioned he put much more effort into his tennis in Rio, and though unpredictable, has be favored to reach the quarterfinals, though fatigue may factor in.
Jiri Vesely, the 6 seed, has a nice chance at a run this week, he opens with Blaz Rola, who has just two wins on the season (though on of them came in an upset of Leo Mayer last week in Rio), and then would face a qualifier in round 2. Vesely is 0-3 since winning the Auckland title, but he pushed Fognini to 3 sets in Rio, and his other golden swing loss was to Pablo Cuevas, who ended up taking the title in Sao Paulo, both of those losses coming in 3 sets. Vesely, though mentally fragile, is playing better than recent results would suggest, and presuming his fitness is ok, I actually have him winning that rematch with Fognini in the quarters. It was a low quality, and up and down encounter when they played last week in Rio, and by this point, Fognini should be fatigued from all the tennis he’s had to play over the past week and a half, with that in mind, the advantage swings to Vesely to reach the semis. Don’t count a qualifier out here either.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, the 2009 champion, will face Jarkko Nieminen or Renzo Olivo, a wild card, in round 2. The veteran Nieminen isn’t that impressive on clay right now, while Olivo is actually 8-2 over his last 10 matches, a mix of Quito qualies, and the Santo Domingo challenger. With a retirement, and a loss to eventual champ Victor Estrella, the only two losses Olivo has had in weeks, I have him notching an upset on home soil to setup a meeting with Robredo. Olivo shockingly upset Robredo in Bastad last year on clay, and Robredo has been in poor form all season, with just a 1-2 record on the year, with a retirement, and a loss to the much lower ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer in Rio. With that in mind, I’m backing Olivo to reach the quarterfinals with a pair of upsets over ATP veterans, on home soil in BA.
Olivo/Robredo are most likely to meet the Andujar/Almagro winner in the quarters, I presume Almagro will be able to defeat wild card Horacio Zeballos or Albert Ramos in round 2. Ramos should beat Zeballos, he’s 1-2 on the Golden Swing thus far, but Almagro is the most talented player of the bunch and should beat Olivo in the quarters to reach the semis in what would be a good week for him.
Pablo Cuevas opens with Guido Andreozzi or a qualifier, Andreozzi, a wild card, has been plying his trade on hard courts, rather than clay this year, and the qualifier will have a good chance, all the same Cuevas, the Sao Paulo champ, and a quarterfinalist in Rio who pushed Nadal to 3 sets, should have no trouble reaching the quarters given his good form. In another all-Argentine battle, Juan Monaco (2-1 clay court h2h) should have enough ability to take out Maximo Gonzalez, who hasn’t won an ATP main draw match in a while. Monaco, a Rio quarterfinalist should face the top ranked Argentine Leo Mayer in round 2. Mayer retired in his last match and is just 1-2 on the Golden Swing, but I still see him beating the veteran French journeyman Stephane Robert, who hasn’t played on clay since the French Open last year. Monaco and Mayer have never met on clay, but with Monaco in slightly better form, I have Pico into the quarters, and then Cuevas beating him for a spot in the semis. Monaco is 5-0 on clay against Cuevas, but they haven’t played since 2011, and Cuevas has been a far superior player as of late.
The unseeded Nicolas Almagro is also a dark horse, but the home player Olivo could have the most eye catching week in Buenos Aires. As mentioned if the in-form wild card can score upset wins over Nieminen, and Robredo, he would be in the quarters, and should be find a way to beat Almagro or another player, he would find himself in his first ever ATP semifinal this week, which I’m sure the home crowd would appreciate.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Vesely
Cuevas d. Almagro
Even with Nadal not playing top 5 quality tennis right now, I don’t see anyone in the field being able to take him out before the final, meanwhile Cuevas has dominated Almagro as of late, and should also be able to battle his way to the final this week
Final: Nadal d. Cuevas
He didn’t win Rio, but you still have to pick Nadal as the champion for almost every clay court tournament in which he is a participant. The king of clay has struggled thus far this season, but you have to feel failure to reach a final yet this year, will further motivate him to cap off the Golden Swing with good vibes, and an ATP title. Nadal just beat my favored finalist Cuevas last week in Rio in 3 sets, and his level should be good enough to take this 250 title as the top seed.
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