Fabio Fognini The Top Seed at ATP Gstaad Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP 250 in Gstaad is played on clay and will feature a host of European and South American players vying for the title. Here is your full preview, with predictions.
Top Half:
The champion of Bastad, Fabio Fognini, should face off with the in-form Yannick Hanfmann in a challenging round 2 match. Hanfmann has to get past fellow qualifier Jurgen Zopp first. I’ll pick Hanfmann in an upset as Fognini, if he plays, should be fatigued after winning Bastad. I also have Joao Sousa falling in an upset against qualifier Facundo Bagnis, with Bagnis defeating Nicolas Almagro or Marc-Andrea Huesler in the second round. Hanfmann should emerge from the section.
Andrey Rublev should be good enough to get past Matteo Berrettini (or Radu Albot) in round 2, with Guido Pella a player in great form in Umag, defeating Paolo Lorenzi before facing off with countryman Federico Delbonis (or Feliciano Lopez) in round 2. Delbonis is my pick to win the section with Pella likely fatigued.
Presuming he’s fit Roberto Bautista Agut should defeat Jaume Munar or Adrian Menendez-Maceiras to reach the quarterfinals. I have him facing Taro Daniel that stage, as Daniel should get past a struggling Elias Ymer and the Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Roberto Carballes Baena winner. RBA is the favorite in this section.
Borna Coric will begin against Laslo Djere or Denis Istomin, Coric has been pedestrian on clay this year and Djere could trouble him. Robin Haase is playing well and should defeat Viktor Galovic, and the Felix Auger-Aliassime/Guido Andreozzi in the second round. Haase over Coric is my pick for this section.
2017 ATP Marrakech Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2017 European clay court season begins with a 250 stop in Marrakech, Morocco, North Africa’s only ATP tournament. Here is your preview with predictions.
Grand Prix Hassan II
ATP World Tour 250
Marrakech, Morocco
April 10-16, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €482,060
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Grigor Dimitrov (12)
2: Albert Ramos-Vinolas (24)
3: Philipp Kohlschreiber (32)
4: Mischa Zverev (33)
Just one elite player in the field for this 250 but it’s far from the weakest tournament played at this level.
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Benoit Paire vs. Carlos Berlocq
A great opportunity for Paire, if he can continue his momentum from a challenger final on clay this past week, he could have a good showing in this 250. Berlocq is a solid dirtballer, but far from elite, he’ll grind away, hoping for a win, but Paire’s talent should edge it.
Malek Jaziri vs. Jeremy Chardy
Jaziri has had a great 2017 thus far and posted solid results in both hard court Masters, he’s not playing far from home but clay is not his favorite surface. Chardy played well in Davis Cup and presuming he’s still fresh and fit he looks set to win this match and perhaps go much farther than that.
(7)Diego Schwartzman vs. Borna Coric
Both players are talented on clay, Coric probably has more upside with his game, but Schwartzman has been steadily competitive for a while now. Coric is slowly working his way into form after a slow start to the season and is defending finals points in this tournament. Schwartzman is not a great opponent to have to face in round 1, and the Argentine should notch a win here.
Grigor Dimitrov has gotten off to a roaring start this season and should be set to defeat either former champ Tommy Robredo or qualifier Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 2. Paire should follow, presuming Paire beats Berlocq and Radu Albot/Nicolas Almagro. Almagro is struggling, and although Dimitrov was abnormally poor last year on clay, he looks to be a different player this season, more well-rounded than Paire.
Philipp Kohlschreiber will face Chardy/Jaziri in round 2, a happier opponent for him than the top 10 losses he’s suffered in recent outings. Kohli is solid on clay and should also defeat qualifier Taro Daniel in the quarters. Daniel has won seven straight matches now, he’ll open with J.L. Struff, with either a struggling Marcel Granollers or young wild card Amine Ahouda to follow.
Bottom Half:
Albert Ramos-Vinolas should face former champion Martin Klizan in round 2, presuming Klizan defeats qualifier Laslo Djere. Ramos comes off of Davis Cup duty and is solid on clay. Presuming he’s fresh, he should edge past a streaky Klizan before running into defending champion Federico Delbonis. Delbonis opens with local wild card Reda El Amrani, with Schwartzman/Coric to follow, that round 2 match could decide the tournament winner, and perhaps could feature a finals rematch from last year if it’s Coric vs. Delbonis. That said I like Delbonis form to win his first three matches, also defeating Ramos in the quarters.
Paolo Lorenzi struggled in Davis Cup action and now will face off with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a former champion who he has struggled against. I have GGL winning that contest, and also defeating another former champion Paul-Henri Mathieu (or qualifier Gianluigi Quinzi) to reach the quarterfinals opposite Jiri Vesely. Vesely should beat Nikoloz Basilashvili and also Mischa Zverev, who is not at his best on clay. I have Garcia-Lopez as the semifinalist in this section.
Dark Horse: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
The unseeded Garcia-Lopez looks set to take advantage of a weak section and beat both Lorenzi and Zverev/Vesely to reach the semifiinals. He’ll have a tough contest with Delbonis or Schwartzman in the semis, but it’s not out of the question he could suddenly find form and take this title, he’s done it before.
Predictions
Semis Dimitrov d. Kohlschreiber
Delbonis d. Garcia-Lopez
Kohli has a great shot at this title but I’m backing Dimitrov this tournament, Delbonis is also a favorite to reach the final.
2017 ATP Buenos Aires Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Golden Swing rolls on with a 250 level stop in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The South American nation has contributed a lot to the rich landscape of men’s tennis, and now its time to celebrate Argentinian tennis for a week in its capital. Here is your preview, with predictions.
Argentina Open
ATP World Tour 250
February 13-19, 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $546,680
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: Pablo Cuevas (20)
3: David Ferrer (25)
4: Pablo Carreno Busta (26)
The Argentina Open has one top tier star competing against a host of the ATP World Tour’s best dirtballers.
First round matches to watch:
Victor Estrella vs. Thiago Monteiro
36 year old Victor Estrella comes off a third straight Quito title and has started the season in good form, while young Brazilian Thiago Monteiro has lost three straight. The 22 year old is fresher, and no slouch on clay, but Estrella’s grinding should give him an edge in this matchup, as long as he can recover.
Tommy Robredo vs. (7)Fabio Fognini
The h2h between these veterans is split 4-4, but Fognini, a hero in Davis Cup for Italy, is likely the better player in this matchup. Robredo is returning to tour from injury, at Age 34 he’s making his 2017 debut, after focusing on the Challenger tour to recover his ranking and form in 2016. Robredo was once a top clay court player, and he could upset Fognini, but if the Italian hones in he should be able to slap forehand winners on the way to victory.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. (WC)Janko Tipsarevic
This pair have never met on clay, and split hard court meetings 1-1. Dolgopolov has continued his miserable form, he dropped a match to serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram on Quito’s clay. Tipsarevic lost in round 2 of Quito, but still looks to be playing better, and has a great shot at a quality tour win in this one.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori is 28-7 on clay over the last two seasons, and as the top seed a lot of pressure is on him to perform well in Buenos Aires, where he is playing for the second time in his career. His first match will be against an Argentine, either Diego Schwartzman or Facundo Bagnis. DSS leads Bagnis 3-1 in the h2h, so Nishikori over Schwartzman is the likely path to the quarters for Kei, who has started the season 6-2. Federico Delbonis was 16-8 on clay last year, and has a clear advantage to reach the quarterfinals with wins over a struggling Stephane Robert, and Horacio Zeballos or Joao Sousa. Sousa isn’t quite as good on clay as Delbonis, but Nishikori represents a much stronger challenge. Presuming the Japanese #1 is motivated, Nishikori is the semifinal favorite.
The Fognini/Robredo winner should be favored over a tired Estrella or Monteiro in round 2. In the quarterfinals I have it Fabio Fognini vs. David Ferrer. Ferrer, despite having a poor season last year, and struggling to start this year by his usual standards, was still 15-7 on clay in 2016, is a 3-time champion in BA, and is simply better than Carlos Berlocq or a qualifier. Ferrer is 11-0 against Fognini, with that kind of h2h in his favor, Ferrer should be the semifinalist opposite Nishikori/Delbonis.
Bottom Half:
Pablo Cuevas and Paolo Lorenzi, the two seeds at the bottom of the draw, are clear favorites to face off in the quarterfinals. Cuevas was 21-8 on clay last year and is better on the surface than the Dolgopolov/Tipsarevic winner he opens with. Lorenzi faces off with Gerald Melzer, Melzer isn’t bad on clay, while Lorenzi just lost a hard fought Quito final. Fatigue could be a factor, but the grinding Italian veteran should reach round 2 to face Renzo Olivo or a qualifier. Olivo is solid on clay as well, and playing on home dirt, but I still think Lorenzi is the better ATP player (3-0 h2h) and will prevail. Cuevas leads Lorenzi 5-0 in the h2h, and should be fresher, making him the semifinal favorite.
Pablo Carreno Busta and Albert Ramos look set to create an all-Spanish quarterfinal between sometime doubles partners, presuming PCB defeats a qualifier, and Ramos defeats Guido Pella and the winner of Leonardo Mayer/Gastao Elias. Pella is struggling, while Ramos comes off semis in Quito. Mayer hasn’t played as much on tour recently, but he’ll have home court advantage against Elias, a journeyman Portugese player who has hung around the fringes of ATP main draws for a bit now. PCB picked up a win over Ramos last year, he’s starting his season on clay after going 20-12 last season on the surface. I have PCB facing Cuevas in the semifinals.
Of the non-seeded players, the streaky Delbonis may be the most dangerous on clay. He’ll have home fans behind him, and Nishikori could falter if he’s not focused in this 250. If Delbonis can slay Nishikori, he has a shot at taking this title at home.
Predictions
Semis Nishikori d. Ferrer
Carreno Busta d. Cuevas
Nishikori has won six of his last seven matches against Ferrer and has only gotten better since they last met. PCB vs. Cuevas is hard to call, Cuevas leads the h2h 3-2, but PCB may be in slightly better form, I’ll go with the Spaniard, either way we would see a Pablo in the final.
Final Nishikori d. Carreno Busta
This pair have never met, Nishikori is an elite player though, and although he’s not an elite clay courter, he’s still great on the surface and with his movement and steady groundstrokes, not easy to defeat on this surface. He should outmuscle allcomers and take this 250 title.
QArgentina Claims First Ever Davis Cup with Photo Finish Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Davis Cup final, hosted in Zagreb, was going team Croatia’s way until disaster on Sunday spelled a photo finish comeback for Argentina, as they claimed their first ever Davis Cup 3-2. The Argentinians, led by a rejuvenated and triumphant Juan Martin Del Potro lost a crucial doubles rubber and were a set away from runner-up status early on Sunday, but they won the final five sets of play in the 2016 Davis Cup final to earn a hard fought victory.
In Friday action Croatian stalwart Marin Cilic eased his way past Federico Delbonis in a fifth set. Delbonis fought hard to make it a match after going two sets down, but Cilic was simply too strong on hard courts. Del Potro evened up the tie though with a narrow four set victory over veteran Ivo Karlovic. The Tower of Tandil withered Dr. Ivo’s serve, and avoided tiebreaks in the three sets he won, dropping the only tiebreak played in the match.
Croatia was riding high when Cilic and Ivan Dodig dominated Del Potro and Leonardo Mayer in the doubles, but they were caught staring at the trophy when Cilic went two sets up against Del Potro on Sunday, and from that point the Argentine’s were able to turn everything around. Del Potro got breaks in the final three sets of his match with Cilic, and with his forehand clicking, he set up Delbonis in the decisive fifth rubber.
Delbonis didn’t disappoint, despite losing a tough match on Friday he was steady against Karlovic, who offered little on return, and was off on his own serve, dooming Croatia’s chances. In straight set fashion, Delbonis and his countryman claimed Davis Cup glory on the road. Argentina had made Davis Cup finals in recent history, but captain Daniel Orsanic was the one able to lead them to glory. The last three editions of the Davis Cup have now featured a different champion and next year’s could be no different.
2016 ATP Geneva Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The final tune ups for the 2016 French Open will take place this week as the ATP has clay court 250 stops in Geneva, Switzerland, and Nice, France. Here is a preview of year 2 for the ATP Geneva Open.
Banque Eric Sturdza Geneva Open
ATP World Tour 250
Geneva, Switzerland
May 15-21, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €499,645
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Marin Cilic (11)
4: John Isner (16)
Geneva features a strong field for a 250 level tournament, the top players are all in the top 20.
Former top 10 player Janko Tipsarevic is playing just his third tournament of the season after a limited 2015 season where he struggled mightily. Tipsarevic hasn’t had a full season on tour since 2013 and he’d love to just gain some confidence in this match against the solid clay courter Delbonis. The Argentine has reached the semifinals in his last two clay court tournaments, and also has a title on clay this season, so he should advance rather easily into the next round.
(8)Sam Querrey vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Querrey has never lost to Garcia-Lopez (5-0, all matches on hard court). On clay, GGL is likely a slight favorite, but he’s underperformed thus far on the dirt, posting a semifinal, and a pair of quarterfinals as his best showings, all of those results coming in 250 level tournaments. Querrey reached the quarterfinals in Houston, and the third round in Madrid, showing he’s clearly improved his game on clay. The American could pull off a minor upset in this one and advance into the next round.
Top Half:
A struggling Stan Wawrinka badly needs to find form, and confidence, as he takes to the courts in Geneva just a week away from defending his French Open title at Roland Garros. Wawrinka is just 1-2 in his last three matches on clay, and 3-3 overall on the surface this year, a miserable showing for a top 5 player. The Swiss favorite is likely to contend with the Spanish top spinner Albert Ramos in his first match, presuming Ramos dumps out Teymuraz Gabashvili for his fifth loss in a row. Ramos hasn’t been fantastic by any standard this season, and thus Wawrinka likely advances, but he could tumble out early if his poor play continues.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is who I have toppling Wawrinka in the quarterfinals, the German opens with Inigo Cervantes, with either Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier to follow. Cervantes qualified in Rome, then promptly lost to Kohlschreiber, who went on to run into Rafael Nadal in his next match. Kohlschreiber was a semifinalist in Barcelona, and won Munich. He’s a steady veteran who will give it his best in this tune up tournament. PCB was a finalist in Estoril and can’t be counted out as well, the Spaniard is aiming to climb into the top 40, but I have Kohlschreiber winning, and then getting his first win over Wawrinka (0-4 h2h) in the quarterfinals. Wawrinka slipped past Kohlschreiber in Monte Carlo this year on clay in a close two set match.
Americans John Isner and Steve Johnson are the surprising seeds at a clay court tournament in Europe. Isner will face Lukas Rosol or a qualifier, while Johnson opens with the veteran Mikhail Youzhny, and Andrey Kuznetsov/Dudi Sela on deck. Isner is playing for the first time on European clay this season. He was a semifinalist in Houston and I do have him defeating a struggling Rosol/qualifier to reach the quarterfinals. Rosol is ranked outside the top 70 and has been losing even challenger matches on clay as of late.
Johnson is unlikely to make it that far, as Kuznetsov is the favorite in this section. Johnson’s first opponent Youzhny is 3-4 on clay as of late , while Johnson is 0-3. Kuznetsov, a quarterfinalist in Barcelona, should defeat Sela, who much prefers hard courts, and in fact comes off a challenger hard court final. I have Kuznetsov over Youzhny, and then Kuznetsov over Isner for a spot in the semifinals. The Russian should have the highest motivation for points, and a better clay court game than others in this section.
Bottom Half:
David Ferrer is just 8-4 on clay this year, and is almost certain to end up with more losses this season than last on the surface. The Spaniard is still a top 10 player though, and at 34 he’s still going to fight to hold onto his now precarious ranking. Ferrer lost in the round of 16 at both of the clay court Masters this year but he should dispatch a struggling Denis Istomin/qualifier, and Querrey/Garcia-Lopez in the quarters. The Querrey/GGL winner gets a qualifier or Rajeev Ram, who is poor on clay, in round 2. I have Ferrer over Garcia-Lopez for a spot in the semis.
Marin Cilic and Federico Delbonis are likely to compete for the remaining semifinal spot, unless defending champion Thomaz Bellucci can recapture the form of last season and defeat both Mikhail Kukushkin, and Delbonis (or Tipsarevic) for a spot in the quarterfinals. Bellucci did snap a poor run of form to reach the third round in Rome, and he’ll be the favorite over Rome qualifier Kukushkin, who went on to reach the second round there. Delbonis should beat them both though, while Cilic, playing on clay for the first time this year, is still the favorite against either Ernests Gulbis or Ricardas Berankis. The erratic Gulbis qualified in Rome, but he’s still far from his best. I have Delbonis over Cilic simply because the Croatian lacks the body of work on clay this season.
I have the Russian, who has had a breakthrough season in 2016, reaching the semifinals, and he could even walk away with his first ever ATP title if he plays some of his best tennis of the season. This young gun should continue his rise up the rankings this week.
Predictions
Semis Kohlschreiber d. Kuznetsov
Ferrer d. Delbonis
Kohlschreiber is 3-0 on clay against Kuznetsov, Ferrer is 2-0 against Delbonis, and thus they should be favorites for the final.
Final Kohlschreiber d. Ferrer
Ferrer has never lost to Kohlschreiber on clay, but with his game slumping a bit, I have Peppo capitalizing and winning the title.
2016 ATP Istanbul Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The third ATP tournament this week is a clay 250 in Istanbul, Turkey. This tournament is in the second year of its existence, and is one of the few tournaments in the Middle East.
TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open
ATP World Tour 250
Istanbul, Turkey
April 25-May 1st, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €426,530
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Bernard Tomic (21)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (28)
3: Ivo Karlovic (29)
4: Federico Delbonis (40)
This is the weakest ATP tournament this week with two of the top four seeds likely to exit early.
First round matchups to watch:
Facundo Bagnis vs. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Schwartzman leads the h2h with Bagnis 2-1, and it’s a battle of rising Argentines. Bagnis has a quarterfinal in Casablanca on his recent record, while DSS has just one win in his last five matches. I favor Bagnis to prevail in a tough battle.
Top Half:
Bernard Tomic is the top seed, but he’s terrible on clay and I have him losing to either DSS or Bagnis in the second round. Current Bucharest finalist Lucas Pouille has to play Monday in Romania, and then travel to Istanbul to face Illya Marchenko. He should win that match and continue his good form, but I have Damir Dzumhur beating Teymuraz Gabashvili, and then Pouille, for a spot in the quarterfinals, due to fatigue for Pouille. Dzumhur isn’t a great player, but Gabashvili is in poor form, and Bagnis is my semifinalist from an open first section.
Federico Delbonis is 10-5 on clay this season and just made the semis in Bucharest, after taking the title in Casablanca. Delbonis will open with Dudi Sela, or qualifier Andrey Rublev in round 2. Rublev is better on clay than Sela, but Delbonis has the edge to reach the quarterfinals. Albert Ramos isn’t in great form, but he’s better on clay than Adrian Mannarino, he’ll have a tough match wild card Karen Khachanov in round 2, after Khachanov defeats Aljaz Bedene. Given it’s clay, I have Delbonis defeating Ramos for a semifinal spot.
Grigor Dimitrov is the most talented player in this field, and he should roll to the quarterfinals, with a win over Filip Krajinovic, or qualifier Adrian Ungur. Jiri Vesely is 5-2 in recent clay court matches, and stands in the way of Dimitrov in the quarterfinals. Vesely opens with Thiemo De Bakker, with Roberto Carballes Baena, or wild card Marsel Ilhan to follow. Dimitrov beat Vesely on clay last year, and thus I have him reaching the semifinals of a tournament for the third time this season.
Ivo Karlovic is 0-6 on the season and thus I have qualifier Renzo Olivo defeating Dusan Lajovic, and then Karlovic for a quarterfinal spot. Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Marcel Granollers should defeat local favorite Cem Ilkel and then qualifier Carlos Berlocq, or Hyeon Chung to reach the quarterfinals. I have Granollers showing his veteran talent to reach the semis over Olivo.
Bagnis could win the title here, but I do have him going as far as the semifinals, given he’s in a very winnable section. This young Argentine could have a breakthrough this week.
Predictions
Semis Delbonis d. Bagnis
Dimitrov d. Granollers
Delbonis leads Bagnis 3-2 in the h2h, Dimitrov has a clay win over Granollers and should prevail in that matchup as well.
Final Dimitrov d. Delbonis
Delbonis could win the title, but Dimitrov has to be the favorite this time.
2016 ATP Bucharest Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The smaller ATP tournament this week is the 250 stop in Bucharest, Romania, one of the few ATP stops in Eastern Europe. Here is a look at the field, and predictions for the action.
BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy
ATP World Tour 250
Bucharest, Romania
April 18-24, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Bernard Tomic (21)
2: Ivo Karlovic (30)
3: Federico Delbonis (36)
4: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (38)
A lack of top clay courters means Bucharest is one of the most open ATP tournaments this season, and a lot of players have a tremendous chance to earn ranking points.
Top Half:
Bernard Tomic is a miserable 4-11 on clay over the last three seasons, and thus even though he’s the top seed, either Andrea Arnaboldi, or Robin Haase will be gunning to defeat him in his opening match. The qualifier Arnaboldi is in a good position to trouble Tomic, but I have either Paul-Henri Mathieu, or Fernando Verdasco dispatching him in the quarterfinals. Verdasco is facing qualifier Aldin Setkic, and is currently in danger of slipping outside the top 100, after formerly being a top 10 player. PHM faces qualifier Radu Albot, after reaching the quarterfinals in Casablanca. Verdasco is 5-0 against PHM, and thus I have him reaching the semifinals, after defeating Tomic on clay.
Defending champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face either Kyle Edmund or Lukas Rosol in round 2. The power hitter Rosol has been shaky on clay in recent years but he won the title in Bucharest in 2013. Edmund is surprisingly good on clay for a British player. GGL should be good enough to win his third clay court match of the season and reach the quarterfinals over Rosol/Edmund.
Rio finalist Guido Pella should slip past journeyman veteran Adrian Ungur, and then get past most likely Daniel Gimeno-Traver to reach the quarterfinals. DGT opens with Adrian Mannarino, a poor clay courter. DGT recently qualified in Monte Carlo and can have his moments on clay, but Pella is the better dirtballer. Pella has a h2h win over GGL, but given his previous success in Bucharest, I have it Verdasco vs. Garcia-Lopez in an all Spanish semifinal.
Bottom Half:
Ivo Karlovic is 0-5 this season, and 1-4 on clay over the past two seasons. In short, the veteran Croatian is a poor clay courter, in terrible form. Thus, he’s the #2 seed, but he should go out to either Lucas Pouille, or Sao Paulo semifinalist Dusan Lajovic in his first match. Pouille has upset wins over David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet in recent weeks, thus the Frenchman should burst into the quarterfinals. Veteran Paolo Lorenzi has a great chance to earn an ATP main draw win over Diego Schwartzman, DSS has been rather disappointing this year, even on clay. After DSS, Lorenzi should face Taro Daniel, presuming Daniel dispatches qualifier Michael Linzer in round 1. Pouille has the edge over Lorenzi in the quarterfinals.
Federico Delbonis won the Casablanca title, and he could add another ATP title to his resume this week in Bucharest. He’s the best clay courter in his section, as he’ll open with Illya Marchenko or Dudi Sela, with either Marcos Baghdatis or Damir Dzumhur likely to follow in the quarters. Baghdatis is normally not well suited for clay but he was a quarterfinalist in Houston, and he opens with a struggling Marco Cecchinato. Dzumhur opens with Marius Copil, a recent clay court challenger semifinalist. Dzumhur is 7-0 against opponents not named Milos Raonic in recent weeks, and thus I have him defeating Baghdatis, before falling to Delbonis in an engaging quarterfinal.
Besides Delbonis or GGL, the title is likely to go to a dark horse, and Pouille is a strong possibility. This talented Frenchman has a great forehand, is solid on clay, and has been on a steady upward trend in recent years. He’s not as flashy, or consistent, as some of the other young guns, but he is leading the next generation of French tennis.
Predictions
Semis
Garcia-Lopez d. Verdasco
Delbonis d. Pouille
Though Verdasco is 3-0 against GGL on clay, GGL is simply a better player these days, and he has a chance to sneak himself into an ATP final out of relative obscurity.
Delbonis has never faced Pouille, that match is worthy of the final, but I have the Argentina winning his second title in recent weeks so thus he has to advance.
Final
Delbonis d. Garcia-Lopez
This isn’t an easy tournament to predict, but Delbonis showed he can play consistent clay court tennis at the 250 in Casablanca, and he’s due for another title.
32 year old Argentine veteran Juan Monaco won his eight ATP title overall, and his first since 2012, when he defeated Jack Sock 3-6 6-3 7-5 for his second ATP Houston title. Monaco was ranked outside of the top 100, and hasn’t been much of a factor on the ATP tour in quite some time, but he found form on a familiar clay court surface to earn wins over Gerald Melzer, Benoit Paire, Sam Querrey, and Feliciano Lopez, along with Sock. A rather tough path for just an ATP 250. It will be interesting to see if Monaco can stay in the top 100 this year, and make further waves throughout the clay court season.
Sock is now 0-2 in finals this season, but he did beat Matt Barton, Marcos Baghdatis, and American #1 John Isner in the semifinals. His win over Isner will further aid his chances of becoming the top ranked American by the year’s end.
The legendary Bryan Brothers won their sixth ATP Houston title as they defeated Victor Estrella and Santiago Gonzalez in a close match that was decided 10-8 in a third set tiebreak.
19 year old Borna Coric still has the rest of the season to claim his first ATP title before he leaves his teenage years. The young Croatian was foiled by Federico Delbonis 6-2 6-4, as the top 50 dirtballer captured his second career ATP title, the other came in 2014.
Delbonis demonstrated his superior clay court prowess and form when he defeated Thiemo De Bakker, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Albert Montanes, along with Coric, without dropping a set throughout the week.
Coric only had to win a pair of matches, as he defeated Paul-Henri Mathieu and Jiri Vesely, battling hard and pulling off a pair of clutch wins. He’ll now have to jetset to Monte Carlo for a round 1 match on a bigger stage.
Maximo Gonzalez and Guillermo Duran beat Marin Draganja and Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi in the doubles final. Their win further adds to what a fantastic week it was for Argentine tennis, as Argentines really shined on clay.
2016 ATP Marrakech Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Formerly known as ATP Casablanca, Africa’s only ATP World Tour Stop is now in Marrakech, Morocco and remains an ATP 250 tournament that begins the spring clay court season on the ATP tour.
Grand Prix Hassan II
ATP World Tour 250
Marrakech, Morocco
April 4-10, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Guillermo Garcia- Lopez (37)
2: Joao Sousa (38)
3: Borna Coric (46)
4: Federico Delbonis (48)
The lack of any big names in Casablanca means we could get a surprise winner this week.
Cervantes is pushing for the top 50 and has more ATP wins this year than he had prior to this year in his entire career. The Spaniard has a semifinal on clay in Sao Paulo this year, and could make another run to get into the top 50 in this tournament. Vesely has lost four straight and is just 1-7 this year. The young Czech has talent, but he appears to be off the rails right now. This tournament represents a great chance for him to steady himself, but I have Cervantes notching the slight upset.
Facundo Bagnis vs. (WC)Lamine Ouahab
Bagnis is a remarkable 25-5 on clay this year with three challenger titles, and he should win comfortably. With that said, Ouahab is simply a must watch player when he’s near a TV camera. The 31 year old Algerian/Moroccan dominates the Morocco tennis tour and has won two out of the three futures events in the country this year. He’s an out of shape clay court specialist who reached the Casablanca quarterfinals last year, and has never broken the top 100. His shotmaking abilities, and slice and dice play is remarkable, his physical conditioning much less so. Bagnis will win, but Ouahab will bring joy.
Top Half:
2014 champion and top seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face Nicolas Almagro in round 2 most likely, presuming the Spaniard dispatches Radu Albot in round 1. Almagro has a clay court final this year and has won his last three meetings against GGL. Neither player is demonstrating good form right now, but Almagro seems better positioned to reach the quarterfinals.
I have Cervantes defeating Vesely, and then qualifier Nikola Mektic to reach the quarters as well. Mektic has been good on the challenger tour as of late, but Cervantes should be better on clay. Mektic opens with local wild card Reda El Amrani. Cervantes just beat Almagro in Indian Wells, thus I have him pulling off another upset to reach the semis.
Borna Coric was good on clay last season (18-8), and he’ll have his first ATP match on the surface in Marrakech. The teenager is one of the title favorites and he’ll start his bid against either Simone Bolelli or Taro Daniel. It’s been an average year for Coric on tour but with both Bolelli, and Daniel, struggling, he should reach the quarters. Bolelli has lost four straight, while Daniel has lost five straight.
Look for a Coric vs. Albert Ramos quarterfinal. The spin maestro Ramos is solid on clay and 3-2 in his last five matches. Neither Maximo Gonzalez or Daniel Munoz-De La Nava should have the ability to defeat him in round 2, and Paul-Henri Mathieu is a difficult, but winnable round 1 match given this is clay. Ramos beat Coric at the AO this year, and given Coric’s shaky recent play, I have Ramos reaching the semis to face Cervantes .
Bottom Half:
Joao Sousa went 14-9 on clay last year, but is a very poor 3-8 overall this season on the ATP tour. The #2 seed is in danger of falling to Bagnis (or Ouahab) in round 2. Like Garcia-Lopez, I have Sousa getting upset early and the unseeded Bagnis reaching the quarterfinals.
Spaniards Albert Montanes and Daniel Gimeno-Traver look set to compete for the other quarterfinal spot. Montanes is 7-5 on clay this year and a recent challenger semifinalist while Gimeno-Traver is 5-3 on clay. Montanes opens with qualifier Franko Skugor, a doubles specialist who has been surprisingly good at singles this year, while DGT faces Teymuraz Gabashvili, the #5 seed, who hasn’t won a match in his last four outings. Montanes has an ever so slight 4-3 edge over DGT on clay, and thus I have him reaching the quarters. Bagnis is 2-0 against Montanes, and thus I have him in the semis.
Federico Delbonis is 11-7 this year and should breeze past Thiemo de Bakker to reach his third ATP quarterfinal this season. The Dutchman opens with Amine Ahouda, a local wild card.
Sao Paulo finalist Pablo Carreno Busta opens with Evgeny Donskoy, who he just defeated in Indian Wells. Donskoy just won a challenger in Israel on hard courts. His clay game isn’t as sharp, and thus PCB is the favorite. After that, PCB should defeat either Denis Istomin or Lorenzo Giustino to reach the quarterfinals. Giustino qualified, while Istomin just won his first ATP match of the season in Miami. PCB is better on clay than Istomin. Delbonis beat Carreno Busta twice last year on clay, and should move to 4-0 in the h2h.
Both Cervantes and Bagnis appear set to reach the semifinals and beyond. Cervantes has to beat Vesely and GGL/Almagro, while Bagnis needs wins over Sousa, and most likely Montanes, a very doable path for these rising clay courters.
Predictions
Semis Ramos d. Cervantes
Delbonis d. Bagnis
Ramos is 2-0 against Cervantes and more experienced, Delbonis and Bagnis split meetings last year, and prior to that Delbonis had a 2-1 h2h edge. It should be a close battle, but Delbonis has more ATP experience and I have him winning.
Delbonis and Ramos have evenly split clay h2h matches 2-2. Both are talented on the dirt, but this seems to be Delbonis time to rise up and win this title.
2016 ATP Sao Paulo Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The last call on the golden swing on South American clay is Sao Paulo, Brazil, as a host of dirtballers descend to do battle.
Brasil Open
ATP World Tour 250
Sao Paulo, Brazil
February 22-28, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $436,220
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Benoit Paire (22)
2: Thomaz Bellucci (32)
3: Pablo Cuevas (45)
4: Federico Delbonis (46)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Nicolas Almagro vs. (WC)Thiago Monteiro
The three time Sao Paulo champion Almagro is nearly back into the top 50, and he’ll open finish his golden swing campaign with an opening match against the wild card Monteiro. The 21 year old Brazilian stunned Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a top 10 win in Rio in his ATP debut, and also has some good challenger results this year. Almagro is a heavy favorite, but opponents will be wary of Monteiro on clay for a while after his performance against Tsonga.
(5)Albert Ramos vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
The first meeting between these Spanish dirtballers. The spin maestro Ramos should be the favorite since Carreno Busta has lost three straight, but this should be a high quality clay court contest.
Top seed Benoit Paire went 19-9 on clay last season, and is playing on the surface for the first time this season after a run to the semifinals in Marseille on home soil. Paire will face Dusan Lajovic or Luca Vanni as the Buenos Aires quarterfinalist Lajovic seeks to avenge his loss last year to Vanni in Sao Paulo. Paire could take his check and lose early, but skill wise he should be able to reach the quarterfinals.
Qualifier Gastao Elias of Portugal has a good chance to pull a round one upset over Pablo Andujar. The #8 seed hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Elias has had success in qualifying and on the challenger circuit. Santiago Giraldo has the inside track to beat Marco Cecchinato, and then slip past Andujar or Elias in this open section to reach the quarters himself.
Giraldo has a h2h win on clay over Paire, who could be jet lagged, given Benoit’s inconsistency, I have the Colombian veteran reaching a surprising semifinal.
Rio champ and Buenos Aires quarterfinalist Pablo Cuevas is the defending champion, and he’ll open with either Facundo Bagnis or Paul-Henri Mathieu. The qualifier likely has a slight edge over the French veteran on clay, and if Cuevas isn’t too exhausted, he should continue his good form and reach another quarterfinal.
Almagro/Monteiro will face Daniel Munoz-De La Nava or qualifier Maximo Gonzalez in round 2. Almagro should be able to ease past either player to reach the quarterfinals. Both have struggling as of late.
Cuevas is 4-0 against Almagro in the h2h, and has been in far better form as of late. Almagro will have a great shot at a semi given the fatigue factor, but look for Paire or Giraldo vs. Cuevas/Almagro semi in Sao Paulo.
Bottom Half:
Quito finalist Thomaz Bellucci rarely plays well on home soil, and struggled in Rio, but he still is a better player on clay than either Taro Daniel or Roberto Carballes Baena, and thus he should advance into the quarters. Carballes Baena has a clear h2h edge over Daniel, though he’s a lucky loser.
Ramos/Carreno-Busta are Bellucci’s likely quarterfinal opponent. Ramos/Carreno-Busta will face Brazilian wild card Guilherme Clezar, who has a challenger final this year on clay, or Daniel Gimeno-Traver, who reached the Rio quarters as a qualifier. I have Ramos over Clezar, and them Ramos over Bellucci for a spot in the semis. Bellucci beat Ramos on clay last year, but the home soil factor gives the Spaniard an edge in this case.
Federico Delbonis was the 2014 champion in Sao Paulo, and he has a great draw if he can repeat that performance this year. He’ll open with a fellow Argentine, either Diego Schwartzman or Horacio Zeballos (2-0 in the h2h against Schwartzman), and the Rio quarterfinalist then will most likely face Paolo Lorenzi. The Italian veteran is 6-3 on clay in recent ATP tournaments, and opens with qualifier Blaz Rola, with Marcel Granollers or Inigo Cervantes to follow. Cervantes could upset the veteran Granollers, but Lorenzi should prove too much.
Delbonis has won his previous three meetings against Lorenzi, including one last week in Rio, giving him an edge for the semis.
Giraldo isn’t in the best of form, even with his attacking game and strong forehand, but he is a benefit of a rather open top half of the draw. His first three matches are winnable, and a match against either a tired Cuevas, or a somewhat shaky Almagro could result in a win as well, giving him a dark horse shot at an ATP final.
Predictions
Semis Cuevas d. Giraldo
Delbonis d. Ramos
Cuevas has a h2h edge over Giraldo, Ramos and Delbonis are split on clay 2-2, but Delbonis has been in better recent form, and he’s a former champion.
Final Delbonis d. Cuevas
Cuevas has won his last two meetings on clay against Delbonis and just beat him in Rio, but I have that result reversing itself, because if Cuevas reaches the final, he’s likely to be out of gas.
Tennis Atlantic 