Tennis Atlantic

2016 ATP Marrakech Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic 

Formerly known as ATP Casablanca, Africa’s only ATP World Tour Stop is now in Marrakech, Morocco and remains an ATP 250 tournament that begins the spring clay court season on the ATP tour.

Grand Prix Hassan II
ATP World Tour 250
Marrakech, Morocco
April 4-10, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €463,520

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Guillermo Garcia- Lopez (37)
2: Joao Sousa (38)
3: Borna Coric (46)
4:  Federico Delbonis (48)

The lack of any big names in Casablanca means we could get a surprise winner this week.

First round matchups to watch:

(8)Jiri Vesely vs. Inigo Cervantes

Cervantes is pushing for the top 50 and has more ATP wins this year than he had prior to this year in his entire career. The Spaniard has a semifinal on clay in Sao Paulo this year, and could make another run to get into the top 50 in this tournament. Vesely has lost four straight and is just 1-7 this year. The young Czech has talent, but he appears to be off the rails right now. This tournament represents a great chance for him to steady himself, but I have Cervantes notching the slight upset.

Facundo Bagnis vs. (WC)Lamine Ouahab 

Bagnis is a remarkable 25-5 on clay this year with three challenger titles, and he should win comfortably. With that said, Ouahab is simply a must watch player when he’s near a TV camera. The 31 year old Algerian/Moroccan dominates the Morocco tennis tour and has won two out of the three futures events in the country this year. He’s an out of shape clay court specialist who reached the Casablanca quarterfinals last year, and has never broken the top 100. His shotmaking abilities, and slice and dice play is remarkable, his physical conditioning much less so. Bagnis will win, but Ouahab will bring joy.

Top Half:

2014 champion and top seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face Nicolas Almagro in round 2 most likely, presuming the Spaniard dispatches Radu Albot in round 1. Almagro has a clay court final this year and has won his last three meetings against GGL. Neither player is demonstrating good form right now, but Almagro seems better positioned to reach the quarterfinals.

I have Cervantes defeating Vesely, and then qualifier Nikola Mektic to reach the quarters as well. Mektic has been good on the challenger tour as of late, but Cervantes should be better on clay. Mektic opens with local wild card Reda El Amrani. Cervantes just beat Almagro in Indian Wells, thus I have him pulling off another upset to reach the semis.

Borna Coric was good on clay last season (18-8), and he’ll have his first ATP match on the surface in Marrakech. The teenager is one of the title favorites and he’ll start his bid against either Simone Bolelli or Taro Daniel. It’s been an average year for Coric on tour but with both Bolelli, and Daniel, struggling, he should reach the quarters. Bolelli has lost four straight, while Daniel has lost five straight.

Look for a Coric vs. Albert Ramos quarterfinal. The spin maestro Ramos is solid on clay and 3-2 in his last five matches. Neither Maximo Gonzalez or Daniel Munoz-De La Nava should have the ability to defeat him in round 2, and Paul-Henri Mathieu is a difficult, but winnable round 1 match given this is clay. Ramos beat Coric at the AO this year, and given Coric’s shaky recent play, I have Ramos reaching the semis to face Cervantes .

Bottom Half:

Joao Sousa went 14-9 on clay last year, but is a very poor 3-8 overall this season on the ATP tour. The #2 seed is in danger of falling to Bagnis (or Ouahab) in round 2. Like Garcia-Lopez, I have Sousa getting upset early and the unseeded Bagnis reaching the quarterfinals.

Spaniards Albert Montanes and Daniel Gimeno-Traver look set to compete for the other quarterfinal spot. Montanes is 7-5 on clay this year and a recent challenger semifinalist while Gimeno-Traver is 5-3 on clay. Montanes opens with qualifier Franko Skugor, a doubles specialist who has been surprisingly good at singles this year, while DGT faces Teymuraz Gabashvili, the #5 seed, who hasn’t won a match in his last four outings. Montanes has an ever so slight 4-3 edge over DGT on clay, and thus I have him reaching the quarters.  Bagnis is 2-0 against Montanes, and thus I have him in the semis.

Federico Delbonis is 11-7 this year and should breeze past Thiemo de Bakker to reach his third ATP quarterfinal this season. The Dutchman opens with Amine Ahouda, a local wild card.

Sao Paulo finalist Pablo Carreno Busta opens with Evgeny Donskoy, who he just defeated in Indian Wells. Donskoy just won a challenger in Israel on hard courts. His clay game isn’t as sharp, and thus PCB is the favorite. After that, PCB should defeat either Denis Istomin or Lorenzo Giustino to reach the quarterfinals. Giustino qualified, while Istomin just won his first ATP match of the season in Miami. PCB is better on clay than Istomin. Delbonis beat Carreno Busta twice last year on clay, and should move to 4-0 in the h2h.

Dark Horse: Inigo Cervantes and Facundo Bagnis

Both Cervantes and Bagnis appear set to reach the semifinals and beyond. Cervantes has to beat Vesely and GGL/Almagro, while Bagnis needs wins over Sousa, and most likely Montanes, a very doable path for these rising clay courters.

Predictions

Semis
Ramos d. Cervantes
Delbonis d. Bagnis

Ramos is 2-0 against Cervantes and more experienced, Delbonis and Bagnis split meetings last year, and prior to that Delbonis had a 2-1 h2h edge. It should be a close battle, but Delbonis has more ATP experience and I have him winning.

Final
Delbonis d. Ramos

Delbonis and Ramos have evenly split clay h2h matches 2-2. Both are talented on the dirt, but this seems to be Delbonis time to rise up and win this title.