Rafael Nadal Has Clear Path to Another Roland Garros Final Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first week of action is complete in Paris, and Rafael Nadal remains the favorite to capture yet another French Open title. Here is a look at the 16 remaining men hoping to capture glory at Roland Garros, and a look at whether anyone can topple Rafa.
Rafael Nadal, the tournament favorite, was challenged early by Simone Bolelli, the Italian veteran pushed him to a tiebreak but Nadal still won in straight sets. His second and third round matches were routs as he dominated Guido Pella and home favorite Richard Gasquet, surrendering just 11 games over 6 sets.
Fourth round opponent Max Marterer has extended his career year with a fantastic run at Roland Garros. The young German has a bright future, as evidenced by his wins against Ryan Harrison and Jurgen Zopp in straights, and Denis Shapovalov, another ATP young gun, in 4 sets. Zopp, a journeyman veteran, upset Jack Sock earlier in the tournament, and given his opposition, Marterer has really not been challenged.
All of that said, Nadal should blow past his lower ranked and less experienced opponent and I don’t see him dropping a set.
Reaching week 2 is a solid result for both players. Schwartzman hasn’t dropped a set, defeating Calvin Hemery, Adam Pavlasek, and Borna Coric with ease. Anderson dropped sets against Pablo Cuevas and Mischa Zverev in rounds 2 and 3, after a straight set win over Paolo Lorenzi in round 1.
Form would favor Schwartzman, but Anderson is a bit more accomplished and I’ll still tip him to edge this contest. This is a clash between one of the ATP’s shortest players, against one of the ATP’s tallest.
Cilic will be the favorite after dropping just one set in three matches, but Fognini has always had the potential to make noise on clay. The Croatian defeated James Duckworth and Steve Johnson in straights, dropping a set to Hubert Hurkacz in round 2.
Fognini had to survive a five set test against Kyle Edmund where he came back from 2 sets to 1 down to prevail. His other wins came with ease against Pablo Andujar and Elias Ymer. I’ll go with Cilic by a small margin.
A great opportunity for either player. Isner has beaten Noah Rubin and Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straights, and Horacio Zeballos in 4 sets to reach this stage. Del Potro dropped a set in round 1 against Nicolas Mahut but then breezed past Julien Benneteau and Albert Ramos.
Isner is actually a solid player on clay, but Del Potro is more well rounded and should win this.
David Goffin will face an opponent he just defeated in Rome. Goffin saved four match points against Gael Monfils and a hostile crowd in round 3, prior to that he survived a challenged from Robin Haase, who collapsed from 2 sets to love up, and put away Corentin Moutet in straights.
Cecchinato is having a career year and rising fast. The Italian defeated Marius Copil 10-8 in the 5th set, then recovered nicely to ease past Marco Trungelliti, a lucky loser who had to drive from Barcelona to accept his spot in the draw and then won his round 1 match. In the third round Cecchinato upset Pablo Carreno Busta, denying PCB a great opportunity to make a run in this soft section.
Cecchinato has a shot at another upset, but if Goffin recovers himself he’ll prevail.
Djokovic looked a bit shaky against Roberto Bautista Agut, but he still won that round 3 contest in four sets, and prior to that he got the job done in straights against Rogerio Dutra Silva and Jaume Munar.
Verdasco is having a late career resurgence on the dirt. The Spaniard with the powerful forehand was pushed to the brink against Yoshihito Nishioka, but after that five set win he defeated Guido Andreozzi and one of the higher seeds, Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. Verdasco has the talent to push Djokovic, but you can’t pick against the former champion at this stage.
The match of the round it seems, Nishikori is back in form having won in straights against Gilles Simon and Maxime Janvier, and edging Benoit Paire in 5 sets. The Japanese #1 has played at Frenchman in France three straight times, and come out a winner.
Thiem is playing incredibly well on clay right now. He won Lyon in the run up to RG and then put away Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Matteo Berrettini, dropping sets in rounds 2 and 3 but coming away the winner regardless.
This match could go either way but I’ll back Thiem’s form, this is his chance to do something memorable in Paris.
Despite being a heavy favorite in the early rounds, Zverev has struggled mightily after dispatching Ricardas Berankis in round 1. Both Dusan Lajovic and Damir Dzumhur challenged the young German star, with Lajovic succumbing to fatigue and Dzumhur failing to maintain his high level over the final 2 sets.
Khachanov has done nicely to make it this far, he’s not the strongest on clay but he put away Andreas Haider-Maurer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and home favorite Lucas Pouille to reach this stage.
Zverev has all the ability but I’m far from sold on his mindset, and thus I’ll tip Khachanov in an upset.
Predictions
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Del Potro d. Cilic
Djokovic d. Goffin
Thiem d. Khachanov
Either Del Potro or Cilic could win the right to lose to Nadal in the semis, though Del Potro has a better chance to win that semi. Djokovic should do enough to reach the semis, but Thiem has a chance to be the player of the tournament.
Semis Nadal d. Del Potro
Thiem d. Djokovic
I’ll back an upset in the second semi, but Nadal is not going to lose this championship, particularly if Djokovic doesn’t find form quickly.
Rafael Nadal vs. the Field At Roland Garros 2018: Your Full Preview Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 French Open is here and it’s top seed Rafael Nadal vs. the field, as Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Hyeon Chung are among major outs for this Grand Slam. Read on to see whether Nadal will win another French Open title, or if a new champion will emerge.
Nadal’s Quarter
Rafael Nadal will begin against Alexander Dolgopolov, with Joao Sousa or Guido Pella likely to be his next victim. Home favorite Richard Gasquet should await in round 3 unless his round 1 opponent Andreas Seppi makes a run. The Gasquet vs. Seppi winner takes on Malek Jaziri or Mikhail Youzhny. I’d be surprised if Nadal dropped a set in the opening week of the tournament.
The Denis Shapovalov vs. John Millman round 1 match could decide one of the tournament dark horses for this year. Both players have been solid on clay this year, but I’ll go with the Canadian to face off with Max Marterer (or Ryan Harrison) in round 2. Jack Sock should ease past qualifier Jurgen Zopp, and the Yuki Bhambri/Yen-Hsun Lu winner to reach round 3, with Shapovalov favored to win this section.
Diego Schwartzman should be good enough on clay to defeat Calvin Hemery and Adam Pavlasek/Mirza Basic to reach round 3. I have the veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber winning a toss-up round 1 match against Borna Coric, then defeating Thomas Fabbiano (or Matt Ebden) to reach round 3, where I’ll back him in against Schwartzman.
Kevin Anderson looks set to be a factor in week 2, his path to that stage is Paolo Lorenzi, Aljaz Bedene/Pablo Cuevas, and most likely Feliciano Lopez. Lopez faces Sergiy Stakhovsky and Mischa Zverev/Florian Mayer prior to round 3. Bedene/Cuevas have ability on this surface, but Anderson is the favorite to take the section.
Marin Cilic is in a great position to make a run, his first round opponent is James Duckworth, Hubert Hurkacz or Tennys Sandgren will be next in round 2 with Steve Johnson/Adrian Mannarino or Evgeny Donskoy/Jan-Lennard Struff set to feature in the following round. Cilic against Johnson is my expected third round matchup with Cilic advancing.
Fabio Fognini vs. Kyle Edmund in round 3 has the potential to be a thrilling contest. Fognini’s path will be Pablo Andujar, and Elias Ymer/Dudi Sela. Edmund faces Alex De Minaur, with Marton Fucsovics/Vasek Pospisil on deck. I’ll back Fognini over Edmund in the third round but the matchup could go either way.
John Isner has been presented with a tremendous opportunity, his path to the second week is countryman Noah Rubin, Horacio Zeballos/Yuichi Sugita, and most likely Tomas Berdych. Berdych is a struggling former star who opens with Jeremy Chardy, Peter Polansky/Pierre-Hugues Herbert awaits. Chardy has a real shot at upsetting Berdych, while Isner should win the section.
Juan Martin Del Potro looks set to benefit from the absence of other top stars, Del Potro faces Nicolas Mahut, Leonardo Mayer/Julien Benneteau, then most likely Casper Ruud or Albert Ramos. I’ll back the qualifier Ruud to defeat Jordan Thompson, with Ramos beating Mikhail Kukushkin before being upset by Ruud in the second round.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Grigor Dimitrov looks like the third round matchup in Dimitrov’s section, he needs to defeat Viktor Troicki, Nicolas Jarry/Jared Donaldson and either Verdasco or Taylor Fritz to reach week 2. Verdasco takes on Yoshihito Nishioka while Fritz faces Guido Andreozzi in round 1. I’ll go with Dimitrov over Verdasco in this section, with Fritz a possible dark horse.
Novak Djokovic was struggling but he found enough form to suggest he’ll be a factor in the second week. Djokovic’s path is Rogerio Dutra Silva, David Ferrer/Jaume Munar and most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in round 3. RBA needs to defeat Denis Istomin and Marcos Baghdatis or Santiago Giraldo in round 2. Ferrer is a shell of the player he was, and RBA lacks weapons, so Djokovic, presuming his serve holds up, should reach week 2.
Expect fireworks between Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic in round 1, I’ll back an upset in this section with Marco Cecchinato defeating Marius Copil and the Kyrgios/Tomic winner to reach round 3. Kyrgios fitness is a question and Tomic’s form is always a question, while the Italian has been rising. Expect Pablo Carreno Busta to roll past Jozef Kovalik, Federico Delbonis/Thomaz Bellucci, then defeat Cecchinato in round 3.
David Goffin struggled after injuring his eye, but he has been improving and Robin Haase, Ivo Karlovic/Corentin Moutet will be his first 2 opponents. Gael Monfils always thrills the fans and should beat Elliot Benchetrit in round 1, but I’ll go with qualifier Martin Klizan or Laslo Djere to upset Monfils in round 2. Goffin over Klizan is my pick for the section.
The other star player of the clay court season, Alexander Zverev, should ease past Ricardas Berankis and Dusan Lajovic/Jiri Vesely before running into Damir Dzhumur in round 3. This is a weak section for the #2 seed and I don’t see Dzumhur threatening him. The Bosnian has matches against Denis Kudla and Gregoire Barrere/Radu Albot before the third round.
Lucas Pouille has not been in good form, and despite home support I have him going down to the in-form Peter Gojowczyk in round 2. Gojowczyk faces Cam Norrie in round 1, while Pouille should get past the struggling Daniil Medvedev. Former champion Stan Wawrinka is not in good shape since returning from injury, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will take a crack at knocking him off in round 1, if that doesn’t happen, I’ll go with Karen Khachanov to beat Andreas Haider-Maurerer in round 1, and Wawrinka in round 2, before edging Gojowczyk in round 3.
Kei Nishikori looks set to roll into week 2 past Maxime Janvier, Benoit Paire/Roberto Carballes Baena and Gilles Simon or Frances Tiafoe. Simon is playing at home and taking on Nikoloz Basilashvili in round 1, with Tiafoe or Sam Querrey in round 2. Tiafoe is rising and has impressed on clay, but Simon’s pushing is always tricky. Nishikori over Simon should be the result in this section.
The final section looks to have a must-see round 2 match between Stefanos Tsitipas and Dominic Thiem. Presuming Thiem is fit he’ll beat Ilya Ivashka, while Tsitsipas should put away Carlos Taberner. I’ll go with Thiem to win a tough one then face Ernests Gulbis in round 3. The qualifier Gulbis will get help rebuilding his career with wins against Gilles Muller and Matteo Berretinni/Oscar Otte. Look for Thiem (or Tsitipas) to win out here.
Predictions
Round of 16 Nadal d. Shapovalov
Anderson d. Kohlschreiber
Cilic d. Fognini
Del Potro d. Isner
Goffin d. Carreno Busta
Djokovic d. Dimitrov
Nishikori d. Thiem
Zverev d. Khachanov
Cilic/Fognini, Del Potro/Isner, Goffin/PCB, Nishikori/Thiem and Djokovic/Dimitrov are the toss up matches here. Djokovic has the experience, Cilic is more consistent, Del Potro I trust more than Isner on clay, Nishikori should be more fit, and I feel Goffin will rise to the occasion.
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Cilic d. Del Potro
Djokovic d. Goffin
Zverev d. Nishikori
Nadal looks way too good to lose before the final. Despite Zverev’s poor record in Grand Slams, you have to trust his solid clay season this year (and last year) over a still out of sorts Djokovic. Nadal should take the final.
2017 Roland Garros Women’s Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennnis Atlantic
The second Grand Slam of the year has arrived and wow, it is as open as ever. Who will run out as Champion of Roland Garros? Let’s break down the draw and find out.
World number one Angelique Kerber has been anything but in number one form. The German has struggled to put together a run of results. Can she turn it around for the French Open? She has a tough opener against fellow lefty Ekaterina Makarova. The Russian always brings her best to the big events and will no doubt be a huge test for the German. If Kerber can pass that match, then she should be good to make the quarter finals. Roberta Vinci is the first projected seeded opponent, but she could have a lot of issues with Monica Puig in round one. Petra Kvitova is back as the 15th seed, and it is great to see her making her return to tour. It will be unfair to expect much though, as the in-form Sam Stosur should make it to the fourth round to face Kerber.
With Kerber’s struggles, there could be a chance for Svetlana Kuznetsova to make the semi finals again. The Russian is a former champion here but has a tough draw ahead. Christina McHale is first up, then possibly France’s Oceane Dodin, who will no doubt have the support of the home fans. Shuai Zhang is the first seeded opponent for Kuznetsova.
Clay has never been Caroline Wozniacki’s favourite surface, but the Dane will be hoping to find the form that got her to the world number one position years ago. The section is a fairly good one for the Dane, at least until the second round where she could face the in-form Kiki Bertens. The Dutchwoman impressed in Nurnberg again and is a former semi finalist here. It will not be a shock to see Bertens do well at Roland Garros again and set up a fourth round match with Kuznetsova.
The defending champion is Garbine Muguruza, and once again we do not know which version will show up. Despite struggling for most of the season last year, the Spaniard played close to her best at this tournament in 2016, and as a result went all the way. Can she repeat that success? It is a tough opener against Francesca Schiavone, then the winner of Monica Niculesu vs Ana Kontaveit will also be a test of where Muguruza is at with her game. Yulia Putintseva is the first seeded opponent.
French hopes will be heavy on Kristina Mladenovic’s shoulders. The 13th seed has been in good form this season, but will the pressure of a home crowd get to her? If we are going by game alone then Mladenovic should be safe to make the fourth round with Mirjana Lucic-Baroni being the toughest opponent in the third round. A Mladenovic vs Muguruza fourth round will be fireworks, and it looks like it will happen.
Dominika Cibulkova has not had a great clay court season, but often players can catch fire at the right time. Will the Slovak pick up her form for the French Open? She has a tough match against Lara Arruabarrena in the first round in a possible upset. That could open the door for Timea Bacsinszky to have another good run at Roland Garros.
Venus Williams has never won the French Open, but with the draw so wide open, the former world number one could make a decent run. She has a tough opener against Qiang Wang, then Daria Gavrilova as a potential third round opponent. The Aussie has been in good form recently. Can she translate it to the grand slam stage? I think she might, and it will be an unexpected fourth round against Bacsinszky that could be her reward.
Third Quarter
Simona Halep
A few weeks a go I would have labelled Simona Halep as the favourite to go all the way and win the title, but an ankle injury has put her participation in doubt. If the Romanian can fight through the pain then she should make the third round at least to face Daria Kasatkina. Elena Vesnina is the projected fourth round opponent for Halep, but the Russian could have a struggle against Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round. I think the Spaniard may get through that one and possibly go on to face Halep in the fourth round, depending on how bad her injury is. If the injury is serious then Kasatkina could make the fourth round for the first time.
Her Rome title win sets Elina Svitolina in good stead heading into Roland Garros. The Ukrainian is among the favourites in many peoples minds, but she has a very tough draw ahead of her. Svitolina opens against the streaky Yaroslava Shvedova, then she could potentially face another streaky player in Mona Barthel in the following round. Youngster Ana Konjuh is projected for round three, another tough match for the fifth seed.
Madison Keys has not played much this year due to injury, but she is always a dangerous opponent. Ashleigh Barty is a tough first round opponent, but things could get tougher in round three with Anastasija Sevastova waiting. The Latvian is possibly the favourite to go on to face Svitolina in the fourth round.
Bottom Quarter
This quarter is arguably the most open of the lot with no former Grand Slam champions in the section. Karolina Pliskova is the second seed, but she has struggled on clay in the past. The Czech has a good draw to the fourth round with Lauren Davis being the toughest opponent on the road. From there it could get difficult though with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova projected for the round of 16. The Russian could have a tough match with Lucie Safarova, and the big serving Coco Vandeweghe is the first seeded opponent. Pliskova should be safe for the fourth round, but it is tough to predict who will join her there.
Johanna Konta’s section is arguably the softest of the draw on this surface. The Brit does not perform well on clay, so do not be surprised to see her exit early. It opens the door for France’s Caroline Garcia to make the second week if she can handle the home pressure. Agnieszka Radwanska would be the favourite to make it through this section, but her lack of form is worrying. Barbora Strycova could take advantage, but this is a wide open section, solook for an unlikely fourth round match to come out of it.
There are some tough matches to predict in there. Stosur’s form and clay court prowess may be too much for Kerber. Kuznetsova vs. Bertens is a tough call, but I am going with the Russian to edge it. Form says Mladenovic beats Muguruza, but the defending champion might step up to the plate again and the home crowd could put pressure on Mladenovic. Bacsinszky should have enough to beat Gavrilova, and Halep should make the quarter finals if her ankle is back. Svitolina’s good form should carry her past Sevastova. Garcia has a good draw to finally make a grand slam breakthrough, and Pavlyuchenkova will likely beat Pliskova on this surface.
Kuznetsova vs. Stosur is a close match, but the Russian has often had the advantage on clay in their head to head matches. I think Muguruza might have played her way into form by this point to beat Bacsinszky. Halep’s injury makes it difficult to back her going too deep, so I think Svitolina is favourite for the semi finals. Home hopes will end here with Garcia unlikely being able to handle the pressure and Pavlyuchenkova beats her.
If Muguruza makes it this far, she is playing well, so I see her overcoming Kuznetsova in the semi finals. Svitolina should be too solid for Pavlyuchenkova in the other semi final.
Final:
Muguruza def. Svitolina
This will be a first Grand Slam final for Svitolina and a third for Muguruza. Experience in this situation will play a factor and I think the Spaniard will defend her title. If she is on form, then it is difficult seeing Muguruza being stopped. That said, she could easily bomb out in the first round and destroy a lot of brackets.
French Open 2017 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The second slam of the season and the pinnacle of the clay court season is upon as Roland Garros starts Sunday. Excluding Roger Federer, the world’s best are taking part in the French Open this year and here is your complete preview with predictions.
Roland Garros
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 28-June 11, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €16,790,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (4)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Dominic Thiem (7)
7: Marin Cilic (8)
8: Kei Nishikori (9)
Roger Federer, who is skipping RG to rest his body, is the only notable absence from the tournament.
First round matches to watch:
(1)Andy Murray vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
Murray starts another slam as the world #1, but he’s had a miserable season thus far, and although he’s never lost to Kuznetsov, he needs to watch out that he doesn’t suffer yet another early tournament defeat. Murray has reached the semis or better for three straight French Open’s, and he reached the final last year, Kuznetsov is 9-4 on clay this Spring and is a steady battler. I don’t think Kuznetsov will have enough in his arsenal to win this given his 2-16 record vs the Top 10, but Murray could slip up.
(29)Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (Q)Guido Pella
Del Potro’s best result this Spring was a quarterfinal in Rome, he’s proven himself to be a dangerous competitor on tour, despite all of the injury problems, and he serves as a bit of a dark horse this tournament. That said, Pella is 12-7 and is a respectable dirt baller, this match should go more than straight sets, and JMDP should be on upset alert.
(9)Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
The veteran Verdasco is in decline, but he’s reached the second week in Paris four times, the last coming in 2014. The young Zverev is 16-3 on clay this year, and with Murray in his section, has a potential path to the final. Germany’s young hope will be a solid favorite and beat Verdasco in Madrid this year, but he can’t get over confident as Verdasco still has the forehand necessary to notch upsets and punish his rivals if he finds his range.
(27)Sam Querrey vs. Hyeon Chung
Querrey is the seed and at 29 he’s developed a respectable clay court game, the 21 year old Chung is a difficult opponent though, he has a semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this spring and is making his move up the rankings. Chung is a name to watch in the future, and he should find a way to win this one and pull off the upset.
(18)Nick Kyrgios vs. Phlipp Kohlschreiber
The veteran Kohlschreiber has plenty of clay court experience, but he’s just 1-3 since losing the final in Casablanca. Kyrgios has lost two straight and due to personal family reasons his clay court action this year was limited. Kyrgios is the more talented player and can raise his game to a level that Kohlschreiber can no longer reach, but if Kyrgios is off, clay is not his best surface and Kohli could pull an upset.
(31)Gilles Simon vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
Basilashvili broke through in 2017 and is now a solid tour player, he is coming off the semis in Lyon while Simon carries a disappointing 4-5 record on clay this season. Simon will have home support though, and his grinding wears opponents down in slams. Basilashvili will need to bring his best tennis if he’s going to get the upset.
(23)Ivo Karlovic vs. (Q)Stefanos Tsitsipas
Despite an 0-3 tour record, the 18 year old Tsitsipas came through qualifying and soon enough he’s going to make a bang in a grand slam. Karlovic has just two wins on clay this season and it’s by far his worst surface, the tour veteran is a crafty serve and volleyer, but if the young Greek can survive an early onslaught of big serves, he should be able to notch his first ever tour level win and get a big upset.
Murray’s Quarter
Murray and Del Potro look set to meet in the third round, but Murray needs to watch out for Martin Klizan, who has a couple of clay quarterfinals and opens with wildcard Laurent Lokoli and would face Murray in round 2. Del Potro could be upset by Nicolas Almagro, who has been solid on clay this year and starts his campaign against Marcos Baghdatis, who is poor on the surface. Presuming Murray ups his game for this slam, I see him beating Del Potro and surviving some early tests to reach round 4.
Current Lyon finalist Tomas Berdych should be consistent enough to defeat J.L. Struff, the improving young gun Karen Khachanov (who opens with Nicolas Jarry), and either John Isner or Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi will face Ricardas Berankis first up while Rome semifinalist Isner will take on Jordan Thompson, who is poor on clay. Isner will probably edge the dirtballer Lorenzi in a long contest, with Berdych as the clear favorite to make the round of 16.
After taking on Verdasco, Zverev should have an easier go against either Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Jared Donaldson, in round 3 he’ll have a challenging contest against Pablo Cuevas, a semifinalist in Madrid and quarterfinalist in Monte Carlo who is excellent on clay. Cuevas starts his campaign against young qualifier Maxime Hamou, then he’ll face either Nicolas Kicker or Damir Dzumhur. Zverev has more talent than Cuevas, and I’ll make him the favorite in that match.
Look for Chung to try and pull the upset against Kei Nishikori, Asia’s best player. Nishikori hasn’t had a great clay season, but should defeat Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who opens against Radu Albot. Chung faces the Ernesto Escobedo/Denis Istomin winner in round 2. Nishikori, despite his troubles, is still superior to Chung.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Current Geneva finalist and former Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka is finding form finally after a shaky clay court season. His tournament will begin against qualifier Jozef Kovalik, Wawrinka should then finish off dirtballer Carlos Berlocq, who begins against Alexandr Dolgopolov, who is currently a shell of the player he was. The dangerous Fabio Fognini awaits in round 3, Fognini’s path begins with Frances Tiafoe, an American young gun looking to improve on clay, and then he should face his Italian countryman Andreas Seppi, presuming Seppi defeats veteran Santiago Giraldo. Fognini could peak and knock off Wawrinka, but Wawrinka is a more consistent player and will be the favorite to reach round 4.
Richard Gasquet is just 1-2 on clay this year, and should watch out against qualifier Arthur De Greef. The home hero looks set to clash with fellow fan favorite Gael Monfils in round 3 though, Monfils needs to defeat Dustin Brown and either Thiago Monteiro or French wild card Alexandre Muller. Gasquet’s round 2 opponent will be either Victor Estrella or Teymuraz Gabashvili, both veterans. I have Gasquet as a slight favorite against Monfils, although both players are struggling.
Current Lyon finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had been struggling, but Tsonga, the best French hope this tournament, looks to have found form and should defeat Renzo Olivo, and either Gastao Elias or Kyle Edmund before running into Kyrgios/Kevin Anderson round 3. After Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios looks set to face big server Kevin Anderson, as Anderson should defeat Malek Jaziri. I have Anderson, who has been consistent on clay this spring, upsetting Kyrgios, and then Tsonga through to the round of 16.
Istanbul champion Marin Cilic will face Ernest Gulbis, a struggling and fallen ATP star, Federico Delbonis or Konstantin Kravchuk will follow. David Ferrer, who is also struggling, should get past Donald Young, given Ferrer is better on clay, and the winner of Feliciano Lopez/Bjorn Frantagelo. This is a weak section though and Cilic should ease into round 4.
Nadal’s Quarter
Rafael Nadal, My Top SportsBook’s favorite to reclaim the French Open Title for a record tenth time, Nadal has three clay titles in hand from this spring and starts his tournament against Frenchman Benoit Paire. Paire’s form doesn’t suggest he can defeat Rafa, Robin Haase/Alex De Minaur also don’t look to be that imposing, and the winner of Viktor Troicki/Gilles Simon will probably be Nadal’s first serious test. I have Troicki defeating Evgeny Donskoy, and then Simon/Basilashvili to reach the third round. Nadal should win his first three without dropping a set.
Roberto Bautista Agut, a solid clay courter, looks set to make round 3, John Millman, and the winner of Mikhail Kukushkin/Tennys Sandgren are the only players in his path, Sandgren is rising quickly but he’s not great on clay, RBA should beat Millman and Kukushkin to setup a third round meeting with Jack Sock. Sock should beat the steady Jiri Vesely, then Aljaz Bedene/Ryan Harrison, although Bedene is a dangerous dark horse after catching fire a few weeks ago and reaching the final in Budapest. I have Sock powering past Bautista Agut for a spot in round 4.
Grigor Dimitrov has been in terrible form, he should still defeat a fading Stephane Robert and neither Tommy Robredo or Dan Evans are in good form, Taro Daniel should defeat Jerzy Janowicz before falling to Pablo Carreno Busta. PCB’s path to the fourth round goes through a struggling Florian Mayer, Daniel, and Dimitrov, a reasonable path for the Estoril champion.
Steve Darcis is at a career high ranking, but Milos Raonic looks to be in good enough form to win their round 1 clash and then defeat Rogerio Dutra Silva or Mikhail Youzhny. Gilles Muller has had his best ever clay court season, and that should help him defeat a struggling Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Marco Trungelliti/Quentin Halys in round 2. Raonic is a clear favorite to reach round 4.
Djokovic’s Quarter
Lacking a clay title this season, but working with new coach Andre Agassi, Novak Djokovic will start his French Open title defense against Marcel Granollers. The veteran Granollers is a poor singles player these days, Joao Sousa has been terrible this season, and Janko Tipsarevic may not be fit. Djokovic should ease into the third round against either current Geneva finalist Mischa Zverev or Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman will take on Andrey Rublev first up, while Zverev takes on qualifier Stefano Napolitano. Schwartzman should reach the third round on clay but is no match for Djokovic.
Although he started the clay season well, Monte Carlo finalist Albert Ramos-Vinolas is yet another struggling dirtballer in this draw. Ramos should defeat Marius Copil though, with Daniil Medvedev’s poor form likely limiting him to a defeat at the hands of Ramos after beating 20 year old wild card Benjamin Bonzi, who is making his slam debut. This is Budapest champion Lucas Pouille‘s section to lose, Pouille should have the edge against veteran Julien Benneteau, then the Frenchman should defeat Thomaz Bellucci, who begins against Dusan Lajovic. Pouille over Ramos is my pick for round 3.
The consistent David Goffin looks set to defeat qualifier Paul-Henri Mathieu, then dispatch either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Rendy Lu before running into Tsitsipas/Karlovic or Horacio Zeballos/Adrian Mannarino. Zeballos is solid on clay and thus the best bet to reach the third round before falling to Goffin.
Dominic Thiem has two finals and a semifinal this spring on clay, he’s in tremendous form and should defeat Bernard Tomic, who is poor on clay, qualifier Simone Bolelli or Nicolas Mahut, and then most likely Borna Coric, who should defeat Mathias Bourgue, and the winner of Steve Johnson/Yuichi Sugita to reach round 3. Look for Thiem to defeat the young Coric to reach the second week.
Dark Horses: Hyeon Chung, Kevin Anderson, Aljaz Bedene, and Horacio Zeballos
Chung has a nice shot at upsetting Nishikori, Anderson could upset Tsonga and make an unexpected run. Bedene could upset Sock and Bautista Agut, and Zeballos could emerge from the Goffin/Thiem section, although it’s unlikely.
Predictions
Round of 16 Murray d. Berdych
Zverev d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Gasquet
Tsonga d. Cilic
Carreno Busta d. Raonic
Nadal d. Sock
Thiem d. Goffin
Djokovic d. Pouille
Murray, Wawrinka, Nadal, and Djokovic, the steady warhorses of this draw should prevail, with only Murray having the chance of getting upset this early. The young Zverev and Thiem should make their moves, despite facing challenging opposition, Tsonga should nip Cilic to be the last French man standing, and I have Carreno Busta upsetting Raonic.
Quarters Zverev d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Nadal d. Carreno Busta
Djokovic d. Thiem
A battle of contrasts in form, I have Zverev upsetting Murray given how good of a clay court season he’s had. Wawrinka, Nadal, and Djokovic remain favorites, although Novak should watch out against Thiem.
Semis Zverev d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Djokovic
I’ll pick Rafa to take home the title, but I have Zverev as a surprise finalist. Wawrinka has not been that impressive this clay court season, and Nadal should have an edge over Djokovic on clay.
2016 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The exit of Rafael Nadal due to a wrist injury highlighted the first week of the 2016 French Open on the men’s side. Despite struggles by other top players, and a few upsets through the first three rounds, the remaining 16 players in the men’s draw are mostly seeded, and the tournament favorites outside of Nadal remain in contention. Here is a look at the round of 16, with predictions for week 2 of Roland Garros.
It’s Djokovic’s tournament to lose at this point, the world #1 has never lost to RBA, including a win on clay this year, and he’s won all three of his matches without dropping a set or even being challenged. Yen-Hsun Lu, Steve Darcis, and Aljaz Bedene simply didn’t have enough game to challenge him. Bautista Agut comes off a big win against Borna Coric, and he defeated Dmitry Tursunov and Paul-Henri Mathieu prior to that. The Spaniard is consistent, but he doesn’t have the firepower needed to defeat Djokovic. Djokovic in 3 sets
Berdych defeated Ferrer in Madrid, and he just won a big match against Pablo Cuevas in round 3. He also has wins over Vasek Pospisil and Malek Jaziri, and has dropped just a pair of sets to reach the second week. The veteran Ferrer won a four setter against Juan Monaco, and also has wins over Evgeny Donskoy and his countryman Feliciano Lopez this week. Ferrer is playing well, but I feel it’s Berdych’s time to continue the momentum and post a good quarterfinal result. Berdych in 5 sets
Thiem comes off a massive win against Alexander Zverev in four sets, and he also defeated Inigo Cervantes and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to reach week 2. He should be the immediate beneficiary of Nadal’s exit, as he’s never lost to the veteran Granollers and the Spaniard has just won true match win, that came over Fabio Fognini. Nicolas Mahut and Rafael Nadal both retired/walked over against him. Granollers will be fresh, but the young Thiem should be impeccably motivated. Thiem in 3 sets
Goffin should be favored over Gulbis, though he needed five sets to prevail against Nicolas Almagro. Prior to that he earned routine wins over Gregoire Barrere and Carlos Berlocq to reach the second week. The Belgian has a shot at reaching his first Grand Slam semifinal, but he’ll need to defeat a player who already has a semifinal in Paris on his resume, Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis encountered a lot of luck, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga retired with a groin injury while leading him in the first set, and that is what sent the underachieving Latvian into the second week. He also beat Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa without dropping a set. Gulbis has talent, but his luck should run out as Goffin will benefit from Tsonga’s exit and reach the quarters. Goffin 4 sets
Raonic just announced that American legend John McEnroe will be his new coach, and he’s cruised through the first three rounds without dropping a set as Janko Tipsarevic, Adrian Mannarino, and Andrej Martin provided little in the way of stiff competition. The qualifier Martin shocked Lucas Pouille with a straight set win in round 2, easing the way for Raonic.
Ramos defeated Horacio Zeballos and Marco Trungelliti before prevailing in a five set war over Jack Sock to reach the second week. The Spanish veteran plays great top spin clay tennis, and over the course of a four match, only a late break was the difference against the #2 American sock. Ramos should be the most difficult opponent Raonic has faced so far, but the Canadian should serve well enough to advance as long as he plays first strike tennis. Raonic in 4 sets
Wawrinka has never lost to Troicki, and he’s the only former champion remaining in the French Open men’s draw after Nadal’s abrupt exit. The Swiss star had to survive a fifth setter with the power hitting Lukas Rosol, and he recovered quickly to win over Taro Daniel and Jeremy Chardy in straight sets. Wawrinka has been finding form and playing himself into the tournament, making him a threat to capture the title at this point. Troicki has had a remarkable tournament in his own right, he won in five sets over Grigor Dimitro, and then demolished Gilles Simon while a stunned crowd looked on and groaned. Troicki could continue his success against Wawrinka, but the most likely outcome is a win for Stan. Wawrinka in 4 sets
One of the best matchups in the round of 16, Nishikori has been playing well and he has two wins on clay against Gasquet this year, after failing to defeat the Frenchman in the past. The Japanese #1 defeated Simone Bolelli and Andrey Kuznetsov, then needed five sets against Fernando Verdasco as he couldn’t close the match out from two sets to love ahead. Gasquet beat Thomaz Bellucci, Bjorn Fratangelo, and Nick Kyrgios all without dropping a set. Kyrgios turned out to not be a difficult opponent for Gasquet this time, and the Frenchman has been playing inspired tennis in his return to Paris. Nishikori is the better player, but I honestly sense something is improved in Gasquet this tournament, and I’m going to pick him to earn an upset victory after Nishikori struggled through round 3. Gasquet is the last French hope. Gasquet in 5 sets
Andy Murray is 5-0 against Isner, and he just dominated another big server, Ivo Karlovic, in round 3. The world #2 also has a shot of winning this tournament, but he was terrible in his first two matches, barely surviving Radek Stepanek and Mathias Bourgue in the first two rounds. Murray playing five setters against a pair of lowly ranked players was a shock, he played indecisive tennis, with questionable shot selection. He can still improve though, and is a far better player than he’s shown thus far.
Isner needed a long four sets against John Millman, and had a routine win against Kyle Edmund before winning in five sets against Teymuraz Gabashvili. On clay, Murray, one of the best returners in the game, should win this matchup, he badly needs another easy win. Murray in 3 sets
Quarters Djokovic d. Berdych in 3 sets
Thiem d. Goffin in 5
Wawrinka d. Raonic in 4
Murray d. Gasquet in 4
Djokovic should roll, I favor Thiem over Goffin because of his upside potential on clay. Wawrinka should outmuscle Raonic on clay, and Murray has a good record against Gasquet. In a defensive battle, the Brit should prevail if he keeps playing better.
Semis Djokovic d. Thiem in 3
Wawrinka d. Murray in 5
Djokovic will be favored to reach the final, Wawrinka has played himself into the tournament enough where I think he’ll defeat Murray. Murray has been so poor thus far, and I think he’ll come up short of a clay final.
This is Djokovic’s time, he lost to Wawrinka at this stage last year, but he’s a far better player than anyone else left in the the tournament now, and with Nadal out, he avoided a physical semifinal match. Djokovic should prevail.
2016 French Open Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Summer tennis begins in earnest with the 2016 French Open kicking off Sunday. Two weeks of action from the red clay of Roland Garros are sure to yield thrills, spills, and more than a few upsets, as the best clay courters in men’s tennis will vie for supremacy in Paris. Here is a preview, and predictions.
Roland Garros
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 22-June 5, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €16,008,750
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Kei Nishikori (6)
6: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
7: Tomas Berdych (8)
8: Milos Raonic (9)
World #3 and former French Open champion Roger Federer will be missing his first Grand Slam main draw since 1999, as a back injury will snap his 16 year consecutive Grand Slam streak. That means his rival and clay legend Rafael Nadal gets his own quarter of the draw. French favorite Gael Monfils is also absent, as is another talented shotmaker, Alex Dolgopolov, but the rest of the top players are ready to go, many of them looking to benefit in Federer’s absence.
First round matchups to watch:
(31)Federico Delbonis vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Delbonis beat PCB in Marrakech this year and he’s 4-0 in the h2h, but PCB is one of the tougher unseeded players in the draw, and this match will be a classic clay court battle, featuring long defensive rallies. PCB comes off the quarters in Geneva and he was also a finalist in Estoril. Delbonis also reached the quarters in Geneva, and prior to that he reached the semis in Istanbul and Bucharest, plus won Marrakech to help secure an RG seeding. The Argentine should beat the Spaniard in this one, but I’d expect more than 3 sets.
(20)Bernard Tomic vs. Brian Baker
The veteran Baker is a testament to hard work, tenacity, and overcoming all odds to maximize talent, no matter the circumstances. Tomic is the opposite of that, and the #20 seed is in danger of dropping his sixth straight match to likely finish the clay season without a win in 2016, and fuel swirling questions about his future in tennis. After tanking his way through the clay season, Tomic is actually facing one of the easier round 1 opponents as Baker has barely played ATP level tennis this year, regardless, the American is solid enough on clay and should give Tomic enough of a challenge that he may fold in short order.
Borna Coric vs. Taylor Fritz
Coric has struggled to be consistent on ATP clay this year, but he does have a final and a quarterfinal on the surface this spring. The young Croatian has a bright future ahead, but he’s certainly experiencing ATP World Tour growing pains right now. Fritz isn’t as sharp on clay as his fellow young gun (though he was the French Open junior finalist last year), but he did win a match in Nice after dropping two matches to Radek Stepanek in Madrid and Rome. This young American is also likely to reach at least the top 20 in due time, but now, and in the future, Coric should win this matchup on clay.
Another ATP next gen battle like the matchup above, the 19 year old Halys has less ATP experience than the 20 year old Korean Chung, but the Frenchman is going to have the crowd behind him, and most likely play better on clay, particularly in Paris. After Chung’s poor clay season, Halys should hand him a fourth straight loss.
(32)Fabio Fognini vs. Marcel Granollers
Granollers reached a pair of clay quarterfinals in the run up to the French Open, as the Spanish veteran isn’t quite done with singles yet. Fognini is on a poor three match losing streak, after reaching the semifinals in Munich and the quarterfinals in Barcelona earlier this spring. The ATP clay h2h is even between these veterans, Fognini should be better these days, but you never know with his erratic mentality, and Granollers could grab a win over a seed in Paris.
(24)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Nicolas Almagro
Almagro is 4-1 on ATP level clay against Kohlschreiber, and won the last two h2h meetings. The Estoril champion has been poor otherwise on tour in recent weeks, but he’s demonstrated the ability to find form and make sudden runs, as he also reached a clay final in Buenos Aires. It’ll be feast or famine for Almagro, while the fellow one-handed backhand veteran Kohlschreiber won Munich and reached the semis in Barcelona, demonstrating his own ability to find form. I have Kohlschreiber as a slight favorite, but this match has five sets written all over it, and Almagro’s fitness and mentality may let him down.
Diego Schwartzman vs. Guido Pella
Schwartzman should be the more in form player here, but he’s never beaten Pella, and this will be a tough all-Argentine war on clay. DS comes off the round of 16 in Nice, and he won Istanbul for his maiden title. Pella reached the quarters in both Bucharest and Nice, but he hasn’t had quite as good of a clay court spring (he also reached the final in Rio). Both players are on their best surface, and this match could go five sets, I have Schwartzman narrowly advancing with his undersized game.
Dimitrov had the upperhand against Troicki until he lost in a third set tiebreak final against the Serbian in Sydney earlier this year. That set the stage for Dimitrov going on to be unseeded in Paris, and struggle mentally to finish big matches and get important wins. The Bulgarian has lost three straight matches since blowing the Istanbul final, while Troicki has been mediocre on clay this year with a lack of notable results. Dimitrov *should* win this match, perhaps in straights, but his problem is his mentality, not his talent.
Sam Querrey vs. Bjorn Fratangelo
Querrey won four matches this spring on clay, a decent showing for him, while Fratangelo comes off a clay challenger final in France, and also a clay challenger title and a semifinal. The 22 year old American has been the darling of stateside clay challengers, while Querrey is the experienced and steady veteran with a low upside at this point. I have Fratangelo winning this if he’s fresh enough and perhaps leaving a mark in Paris.
Djokovic’s quarter:
The world #1 Novak Djokovic has a great chance to win his illusive first French Open title. Djokovic has been far and above the elite player on tour this year, but RG is his worst slam, and he’s more vulnerable on clay than other surfaces, as losses to Andy Murray in Rome, and Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo this year demonstrate. Djokovic didn’t appear healthy in Rome, but he still reached the final, and he’s at least made the semifinals in recent French Opens.
To open his quest, Djokovic should roll past Yen-Hsun Lu, who is happy to collect a check on clay, and then dispatch either Marsel Ilhan or Steve Darcis, both of whom are qualifiers. Delbonis is slated to be his third round opponent, and neither the Argentine, nor PCB, or Gerald Melzer/Aljaz Bedene have anywhere near the level, or the game to threaten Djokovic. Barring injury, he should be safe to reach week 2. I have Delbonis over PCB, then over Bedene before falling to Djokovic in round 3.
The section below Djokovic featuring Roberto Bautista Agut as the highest seed is quite open. The Coric/Fritz winner has a great chance at third round money and points, as neither Tomic or Baker is an intimidating round 2 opponent. I have Coric into round 3, opposite Bautista Agut. The Spaniard hasn’t done much on clay this year, but his round 1 opponent Dmitry Tursunov has been poor and the Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu is 34 and unpredictable. He’ll open with fellow veteran Santiago Giraldo, who is no longer an ATP caliber player it seems. RBA over PHM, and then suffering an upset loss to Coric is my pick. RBA has underperformed recently, and I feel the young Coric will sense his time to rise. Coric has beaten RBA this year, but is 0-2 on clay in his career against him.
David Ferrer has been below his usual caliber this spring on clay, and suffered another bad loss when he fell in the Geneva semifinals. Still, the Spaniard should roll past Evgeny Donskoy, to setup a match with Rome quarterfinalist Juan Monaco. Monaco, an Argentine veteran, is capable of playing great on clay but he’s been fighting injuries, and he could fall to Denis Istomin round 1. I have Ferrer finding a way to vanquish Monaco, and the serve and volleyer Feliciano Lopez, to make the 4th round, more due to the ease of his draw, than his own form. Lopez has been in poor form, but lucky loser Thomas Fabbiano, and Victor Estrella/Illya Marchenko are some of the easiest opponents you can face early in a slam draw as of now. This section is quite unimpressive.
Tomas Berdych will open his French Open against Canadian Vasek Pospisil, who is poor on clay, with Malek Jaziri/Florian Mayer to follow. That’s not a difficult start, and Berdych should ease into round 3, for a big meeting with Pablo Cuevas, presuming Cuevas handles qualifier Tobias Kamke, and the Chung/Halys winner. Berdych has not had a great clay season, and I have Cuevas notching an upset. He’s a purer dirtballer, and though he hasn’t been on fire this spring, he’s still solid and crafty, enough to beat a power hitter like Berdych, who hasn’t found his range on clay this year.
The nine-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal is one of only two players in this draw to have won a French Open. Rafa, who won Monte Carlo and Barcelona earlier this spring, before losing to Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic in Madrid and Rome, will open with the big serving Sam Groth. After that routine match, he should demolish either Facundo Bagnis or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, with Granollers/Fognini or Nicolas Mahut/Ricardas Berankis to follow. Mahut is poor on clay but he’s at home, I have him beating Berankis, but losing to Fognini, and then Nadal ousting Fognini in round 3. Fognini famously beat Rafa in a slam (US Open 2015), but on clay it shouldn’t be close, given Nadal easily dispatched Fognini in Barcelona not that long ago.
Dominic Thiem looks set to dominate the section below Nadal, the young Austrian was a finalist in Munich, won Nice this week, he also reached the quarters in Rome, and the third round in Monte Carlo this spring. Inigo Cervantes is unlikely to put up a fight in round 1, with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez a dangerous, but underdog opponent in round 2, and Alexander Zverev his likely rival in round 3. GGL opens with Thiemo De Bakker after reaching the quarters in Geneva, he has three clay quarterfinals and a semifinal in the lead up to the French Open, so if Thiem is fatigued, he could pounce. Zverev lost to Thiem in the Nice final, after losing to him in Munich, both matches on clay. The young German could be fatigued as well, but he’s had a strong young gun showing this year and he’ll need a big win over young Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who excels in doubles, followed by a win over Kevin Anderson, the #18 seed who has two wins on clay this year, or Stephane Robert. Given Thiem has been a cut above Zverev thus far, I see him winning that match again to reach round 4, but Zverev will still be a nice unseeded surprise in round 3.
David Goffin, and the Kohlschreiber/Almagro winner are on a collision course for round 3. The Belgian #1. who reached the quarters in Rome, should dispatch young wild card Gregoire Barrere, and then ease past Carlos Berlocq or Paolo Lorenzi to reach round 3. The Kohlschreiber/Almagro winner is likely to face Jiri Vesely, after Vesely beats Rajeev Ram. Vesely has an ATP quarterfinal and a semifinal on clay this spring, and shocked Novak Djokovic for the win of his career. He’s a talent, but he lacks consistency, thus I have Goffin over Kohlschreiber in round 3. Goffin leads Kohli 2-1 in the h2h, and he’s been the better player this season, particularly in big events.
Presuming French #1 and Monte Carlo semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can fend off the challenge of in-form qualifier J.L. Struff, he should be able to defeat Gilles Muller/Marcos Baghdatis, and setup a winnable third round contest with either Joao Sousa, or Andreas Seppi. Tsonga will have home support, though he often struggles under the pressure. Baghdatis should beat Muller on clay, but he’s poor on the surface, while Sousa, a quarterfinalist in Madrid, and semifinalist in Nice, is the favorite against Damir Dzumhur, an Istanbul quarterfinalist, and also the Nice quarterfinalist Seppi, who opens with Ernests Gulbis, an opponent who he has struggled with in past h2h matches, but is far below his previous level these days. Sousa has a h2h win over Seppi, and has been in better match form. Tsonga should be the better player on clay in their third round meeting, he’s the strongest player in this section.
The defending champion Stan Wawrinka has had an awful clay court season, and was slumping for a while, but he may have just found the form he needs to compete at the highest level, as he won the Geneva final on home clay, and just beat his round 1 opponent Lukas Rosol in the semifinals there. If Martin Klizan, who had a good early part of the season before being injured, isn’t too rusty, he could give Wawrinka a stiff challenge, first the Slovak will need to defeat Taro Daniel though, who isn’t likely to have enough game against Wawrinka on clay. With Klizan’s form questionable, I have Wawrinka getting through the first two rounds, though it may not be as smooth as many think. The Swiss veteran is alone in the national spotlight with Federer absent now, and while he’s capable of playing incredible tennis, his poor play this season has hardly inspired confidence. His round 3 opponent will also result in him being a heavy favorite, as Jeremy Chardy/Leonardo Mayer are most likely, and neither have had a great spring. The winner of that match will face Adam Pavlasek or Roberto Carballes Baena, both of whom came through qualifying, but are not top tier talents. Wawrinka over Chardy is my pick for round 3, as like Ferrer, Wawrinka will benefit from a weak draw more than anything else to reach the second week.
The Troicki/Dimitrov winner should be opposite Frenchman Gilles Simon, unless the Schwartzman/Pella winner serves as a dark horse. I have Dimitrov over Troicki, and Dusan Lajovic (who beats Denis Kudla R1), and Simon ousting recent challenger winner Rogerio Dutra Silva to setup a round 2 match with Schwartzman. Their first h2h meeting will have some upset potential given Simon hasn’t done much on clay this year. In a slam I still have to favor the veteran Frenchman to reach the third round, but I have him falling to Dimitrov, who should reverse the h2h loss on clay this year to Simon if he can pull his game together. This is a tough section to predict.
American Jack Sock gets a nice draw. The Houston finalist could be the last American standing after defeating a struggling Robin Haase, and either qualifier Dustin Brown or veteran Dudi Sela in round 2. Geneva finalist Marin Cilic should defeat Marco Trungelliti, a qualifier, and then Istanbul quarterfinalist Albert Ramos, after Ramos beats fellow dirtballer Horacio Zeballos. Cilic isn’t the most consistent higher seed in the draw, and Sock will certainly have a shot at the fourth round, but on clay I give Cilic a slight edge. It should be an intriguing matchup.
Milos Raonic has few obstacles in his quest to reach the second week. The Canadian could have a big French Open, and he’ll start with Janko Tipsarevic, who is still easing back from a series of injuries, followed by Adrian Mannarino or Mikhail Kukushkin, and most likely Lucas Pouille in round 3. Raonic reached the quarters in both Monte Carlo and Madrid on clay. Mannarino found shocking form on clay and reached the semis in Nice, while Kukushkin is poor himself. The big serving Canadian should work his way out of any early round danger, as the young Pouille likely won’t be able to stay level against Raonic’s steady serving. Pouille was a finalist in Bucharest, and a semifinalist in Rome, he’s a solid young talent who should ease past Julien Benneteau, and most likely Andrej Martin, as Daniel Munoz De La Nava is slumping. The French fans will certainly try to will him into the round of 16 though.
Murray’s quarter:
Andy Murray has the weakest section of the draw, and the Rome champion and Madrid finalist shouldn’t worry much about Radek Stepanek, who he beat in Madrid, and had to come through qualifying. Mathias Bourgue and Jordi Samper-Montana are both below ATP level players right now, and Ivo Karlovic, who is awful on clay, is the only other seed in Murray’s section. Murray has a clear path, as I have him facing veteran Spaniard Albert Montanes, a semifinalist in Marrakech, in round 3. Montanes should “upset” Karlovic on clay, and also beat either Laslo Djere or Jordan Thompson, both of whom lack much ATP experience. Murray will outrun, and out work Montanes in round 3.
American #1 John Isner should reach the third round, and end up opposite the erratic French favorite Benoit Paire. Isner hasn’t enjoyed clay this year, but his opening round opponent John Millman doesn’t like clay either, and I don’t see Kyle Edmund or qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili as quite ready to step up and earn an ATP top 20 win on clay yet. Both recently won challenger titles, and don’t sleep on Edmund making the third round, but Isner’s consistency works in his favor. Paire has been struggling, but he has two semifinals on clay this spring, and neither qualifier Radu Albot, nor Teymuraz Gabashvili/Donald Young are opponents likely to defeat him. Young should win over Gabashvili given the Russian’s terrible form. I have Paire over Isner because I sense the Frenchman will do well at home, and I don’t trust Isner on clay right now.
Richard Gasquet and Nick Kyrgios always seem to run into each other, as the veteran Frenchman can’t escape his young Australian rival. Gasquet, the French #2, should ease past Thomaz Bellucci, who has been disappointing recently, and also the Querrey/Fratangelo winner, to setup the third round match with Kyrgios. NK has to defeat Marco Cecchinato, and either Adrian Ungur or Igor Sijsling, as his first three opponents are more at home on the challenger tour. Kyrgios has a semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this spring, and he’s been a top performer at the Grand Slam level, with Gasquet playing at no better than average this clay season, I have Kyrgios winning that match and advancing into round 4. Kyrgios also has a h2h win this year against Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori vs. Andrey Kuznetsov figures to be one of the better round 2 matchups in the draw, Nisihkori has a struggling, and injured Simone Bolelli as his first opponent, while Kuznetsov opens with Benjamin Becker, a veteran who is allergic to clay. Kuznetsov has a pair of clay quarterfinals this spring and he’s a rising talent, but Nishikori has established himself as a player likely to go deep in this draw, given his semifinal showing in both Madrid and Rome, and his finalist result in Barcelona. Munich quarterfinalist Ivan Dodig should dispatch a struggling Mikhail Youzhny, and setup a meeting with Bucharest champion Fernando Verdasco. The veteran Spaniard opens with American Steve Johnson, who is poor on clay, and he should win that match, and defeat Dodig, before falling to Nishikori in round 3.
Coric is my pick to reach the second week opposite Djokovic, Fritz is an interesting opponent, and Bautista Agut can be a consistent performer who plays tough tennis on clay, but he doesn’t have the upside of the young unseeded Croatian. Zverev has to beat Herbert, and a seeded Anderson to reach round 3, and then he’ll need to reverse his result against Thiem and win. That’s a tough ask, but he could still reach the second week.
Schwartzman may lose round 1 to Pella, and Simon is one of the tougher veterans to play in Paris, but if the Argentine gets out of the first two rounds, he’ll likely run into Dimitrov again, an opponent he defeated in the Istanbul final. We could see this Argentine in the second week. Kuznetsov has the toughest early round opponent, as Nishikori looms in round 2, but if Kei plays poorly and shows up in dreadful form, we could see the Russian make a run into the second week. All of these players are relatively young, unseeded, and have strong upside potential.
Predictions
Round of 16: Djokovic d. Coric in 3
Cuevas d. Ferrer in 4
Nadal d. Thiem in 4
Goffin d. Tsonga in 5
Raonic d. Cilic in 4
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov in 5
Nishikori d. Kyrgios in 4
Murray d. Paire in 3
Djokovic and Murray beat Coric and Paire respectively in Madrid and Monte Carlo, the top 2 players should ease into the quarterfinals. Nadal is 2-1 against Thiem, and won their most recent match in Monte Carlo, that match has upset potential, but over a best of 5, Nadal has a clear edge.
Goffin and Tsonga have split clay meetings, that match could go five sets, but with Tsonga normally playing worse at home, I have Goffin advancing. Ferrer is 3-0 against Cuevas but dropped a set against him in their match this year, I have an upset in that match because I don’t trust Ferrer to play well at all this week, and Cuevas is due for a surprising run.
Raonic likely outlasts Cilic in a close battle of big hitters. Wawrinka is better than Dimitrov, despite Grigor holding a 2-1 h2h edge on clay against the Swiss. Nishikori is 3-0 against Kyrgios and has two wins this season against him, on clay he should prevail.
Quarters: Djokovic d. Cuevas in 3
Nadal d. Goffin in 3
Wawrinka d. Raonic in 5
Murray d. Nishikori in 4
Murray is 6-1 against Nishikori, they play a similar style, and Murray seems to do it better, even on clay. Wawrinka vs. Raonic is tough to predict, Raonic won for the first time at this year’s AO after going 0-4 against Wawrinka. On clay, the advantage likely shifts to Wawrinka, as this is not Raonic’s best surface. However, Stan is shaky right now.
Nadal and Djokovic should be unbothered as they march towards a semifinal against each other.
Semis: Djokovic d. Nadal in 4
Murray d. Wawrinka in 4
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Nadal in the last two seasons (7-0), the world #1 beat Nadal in Paris last year, and has a win this year on clay in Rome. It will be a close and competitive match, but Djokovic has simply outpaced Nadal at this point in their careers, and I’m not sure Nadal is going to be able to get back to his prior level, even on clay. Djokovic’s superior consistency and conditioning should win out.
Wawrinka won his last three meetings against Murray, after Murray had a prior h2h edge. With that said, Murray has been in far superior form this year, and even on clay he’s established himself as an elite player. With Murray playing some of his best clay tennis, he should win the semifinal match.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray in 4
It was important for Murray’s confidence to win in Rome against Djokovic, but the world #1 was not playing at 100%, and presuming he’s healthy and fit, it’s hard to see how Murray will defeat him in a slam final, especially on clay. Djokovic won their previous two meetings this year, including the Madrid final, and he’ll be the favorite if he reaches the final. Last year in the semis Djokovic beat Murray in five sets, and it should be a competitive, and high caliber final. I tip the Serbian to win his first ever French Open title, this seems to be the year for him.
2015 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Week 1 at the 2015 French Open at Roland Garros stayed relatively true to form, while some surprises and upsets took place, all of the top tier contenders are still alive going into the second week, and this second week should prove to be more exciting and pivotal than the first week was. Their was a notable absence of five setters and dramatic tennis on the men’s side, but regardless, here is a retrospective of the week that was, and a lookahead to the round of 16 and onwards.
2015 French Open Week 2 Preview
Men’s round of 16 matchups
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (20)Richard Gasquet
Novak Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set in three matches, coming close only once, and he’s looking dominant as usual coming in to the second week of play. Novak dominated Gilles Muller and Thanasi Kokkinakis, never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set, and prior to that he got past Jarkko Nieminen, as Nieminen was only able to raise his level for 1 set, a set he eventually lost. For Kokkinakis it was good to reach the third round on clay, but the young gun posed no threat to the world #1.
Gasquet has always struggled against Djokovic, and he had to fight to reach the second week. After dominating Germain Gigounon, a qualifier, he slayed Carlos Berlocq in 5 sets, and Kevin Anderson in 4 sets. Against Berlocq he struggled and dropped the 4th set, but the match was postponed for darkness, and the next day he found renewed form to win it.
Gasquet is fun to watch, and he’ll excite the crowds, but at best taking a set off of Novak would be quite the feat, and Djokovic in 3 sets is a reasonable pick.
(6)Rafael Nadal vs. Jack Sock
Nadal has looked as sharp as Djokovic in the first week, not dropping a set against three opponents, and never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set. He beat Quentin Halys, Nicolas Almagro, and Andrey Kuznetsov in routs, and appears to be rising up and rounding in to form on his favorite red clay in Paris.
Sock is the first American man to reach the second week of the French Open in quite some time, as the young gun American is a threat on red clay with his powerful, high RPM forehand that mimics Nadal to some extent. He uses it to clobber opponents and leave then struggling to beat him. He scored two upset wins this week, the first round was a three set win over a listless Grigor Dimitrov, who appears to be lacking belief these days, and the third round was total domination over teenager Borna Coric, who had scored two hard fought wins to reach the third round over Sam Querrey, and Tommy Robredo. In between those matches, Sock dropped his only set of the first week against dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta.
Sock is to some extent a poor man’s Nadal, and on clay Nadal has better defense, more experience, and the ability to match Sock shot for shot on the forehand side, thus this matchup isn’t great for him, and I have Rafa advancing in 3 sets. Nadal in 3 sets
(3)Andy Murray vs. Jeremy Chardy
Andy Murray has looked to be playing well in his first three matches, and he has a relatively easy fourth round encounter lined up against the inspired Frenchman Chardy who he is 6-1 against in his career, including a win this year on clay in Rome when Murray was fatigued.
The UK #1 dispatched a pair of young guns, Facundo Arguello, and Nick Kyrgios, the fan favorite Aussie, without dropping a set in rounds 1 and 3, as Murray remains a bad matchup or Kyrgios. In between, Joao Sousa challenge him for two sets, but Murray won in 4, as he fought through the Portugese’s stiff challenge.
Chardy did not enter the French Open in good form, but the home soil and French fans have really helped push him to another career performance in a slam, as reaching the second week is a great feat for him. He upset both John Isner and David Goffin to get this far, beating Goffin in straights in round 3, and Isner in 4 sets in round 2. Prior to that he beat Michael Berrer in 4 sets.
Chardy has had a nice run, but I don’t see Murray dropping a set against him as the Scot should simply move too well to be bothered by the Chardy bread and butter, Murray in 3 sets is the pick.
(7)David Ferrer vs. (9)Marin Cilic
A match that could turn out to be quite competitive, Ferrer leads the h2h over Cilic 3-2, and they haven’t met since 2011.
Ferrer was dominant in his first two matches notching routine wins over Lukas Lacko and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but he got sloppy against Simone Bolelli, who was punching through him at times and won two sets, eventually losing in 5 as he ran out of gas late.
Cilic appears to be rapidly picking up steam with his form and momentum, he beat Robin Haase, Andrea Arnaboldi, and Leonardo Mayer without dropping a set. Dominating Mayer, who was supposed to challenge him, as the Argentine was in good form going into that match.
It’s a hard pick for me to make, but I’m going to stick with Ferrer and his steady play to win the day, as Ferrer in 5 sets is my pick. This should be a great match, style wise alone.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs Teymuraz Gabashvili
No one is surprised to see Kei Nishikori here, but Gabashvili reaching the second week of a slam is quite the story. The Georgian/Russian has always had the talent but he’s underachieved a bit. This year his baseline power game has been on point, but the Japanese #1 will be his toughest challenge yet, and the road likely ends here for him.
Nishikori only had to play two matches to reach the second week, as he got a walkover in the third round against Benjamin Becker (who upset Fernando Verdasco earlier in the week). He drilled his backhand for wins against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Thomaz Bellucci without dropping a set in the first two rounds.
Gabashvili, who has beaten Nishikori once, compared to three losses including one this year on clay in Barcelona, beat higher ranked opponents Feliciano Lopez, Juan Monaco, and Lukas Rosol without dropping a set. He’s the most surprising name left on the men’s side, and he’s had a tough draw but dealt with it magnificently.
Credit to Gabashvili for getting this far, but I have a rested Nishikori in 3 sets.
(4)Tomas Berdych vs. (14)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Berdych just defeated Tsonga on clay in Madrid, and overall leads the h2h history, but with the French crowd rallying for Tsonga, who seems to play inspired tennis at Roland Garros, many people are looking for a different result this time, and an upset win for Tsonga.
I continue to feel Berdych isn’t getting enough credit for his results, and he continued the streak of not losing to a non top 5 player in quite some time with wins over Yoshihito Nishioka in 3 sets, and Radek Stepanek and Benoit Paire in four sets. Both Stepanek and Paire are rather odd matchups to face, but once Berdych got settled in, he put his hands firmly around the match and take control.
Tsonga has defeated Christian Lindell, Dudi Sela, and Pablo Andujar without dropping a set, though only Andujar can be considered an even halfway challenging opponent, so it’s still hard to tell where his form is right now, besides the fact he hasn’t slipped up when he shouldn’t.
Tsonga should give Tomas a great match, and he loves Paris, bit Berdych is too strong right now to lose this, and Berdych in 4 sets is my pick.
(8)Stan Wawrinka vs. (12)Gilles Simon
This match should be a slow grinding love affair with the red clay, and the Parisian crowd will increase Simon’s chances to win this one over Stan the man. Wawrinka has a minor 3-2 h2h edge but overall these two players are relatively even, as Simon manages to neutralize the Wawrinka backhand attack.
Wawrinka beat Marsel Ilhan, Dusan Lajovic, and American Steve Johnson, dropping just 1 set against Lajovic to reach the second week, as he has avoided a stumble, and even signs of trouble this time.
Simon clawed back to win in 4 against Lucas Pouille, and then upset Martin Klizan in straights before needing five sets against veteran Nicolas Mahut. Simon’s grinding could well win this, but I’m going with Wawrinka in 5 sets. He should be fresher for this one, and hasn’t had to face as difficult of opposition early on.
(2)Roger Federer vs. (13)Gael Monfils
The potential is there for either of these players to reach the final out of the bottom half, and this is a highly anticipated fourth round encounter coming up on Sunday. Monfils has won the last two meetings, both on clay against Federer without dropping a set, including this year in Monte Carlo, and thus it’s clear at a venue he loves, Roland Garros, where he feeds off the energy of the crowd to inspire his highlight worthy tennis, he’ll have a great chance to defeat a legend, and look to carve more Roland Garros history out himself as the home favorite player.
Monfils has had to scratch and claw in his all of his matches this week, as he’s the only player in the round of 16 who has played multiple five setters. He started the tournament winning in a surprise four over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, and then both Diego Schwartzman and Pablo Cuevas pushed the envelope and gave Gael all he could handle, but twice he would fight back. Against Schwartzman he was 2 sets to 1 down and then won the last two sets by a combined score of 12-4, against Cuevas he was down 2 sets to 1 and a break, only to roll off a number of games in the fourth set, and pump himself into a five set win over a choking Cuevas.
Federer should be much fresher, but he’s also older, he beat Alejandro Falla, Marcel Granollers and Damir Dzumhur without incident, not even dropping a set.
Monfils speed and variety can frustrate and both Federer, especially on clay, but Federer has actually had the edge here, and Monfils has looked shaky at times with his focus and consistency in week 1, thus Federer in 4 sets is my pick.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament:
Quarters: Djokovic d. Nadal in 4 Murray d. Ferrer in 4 Berdych d. Nishikori in 4 Federer d. Wawrinka in 3
Sticking with my original picks here basically, Djokovic, Murray, Berdych and Federer have given me no reason not to trust them to reach the semis, and they should be the favorites, not just as top 4 seeds, but also based on their current level of play. Nadal is unlikely to be able to maintain against Djokovic, Ferrer seems less talented than Murray right now, I give Berdych the edge on Kei, and Wawrinka tends to struggle against Federer, Simon could perhaps be more of a challenge.
Semis: Djokovic d. Murray in 4
Federer d. Berdych in 4
Sticking to my guns here as well, Berdych and Murray can both challenge their higher ranked opponents for at least a set, but over a period of five sets, I’d give the #1 and #2 decisive advantages.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer in 4
Djokovic should be better these days than Federer on clay, and if he loses the French Open this year, we’d have to consider it a choke in most imaginable circumstances.
The second slam and the pinnacle of the clay court season has arrived, as our full team of analysts have filled out their draws for the French Open, read on to see our picks.
Roland Garros
2015 Roland Garros Predictions
Steen Kirby’s picks
Djokovic’s Quarter
Murray’s Quarter
Berdych’s Quarter
Federer’s Quarter
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Ferrer, Nishikori vs. Berdych, Garcia-Lopez vs. Federer Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Berdych vs. Federer Final: Djokovic vs. Federer Champion: Djokovic
Niall Clarke’s picks
Djokovic’s Quarter
Murray’s Quarter
Berdych’s Quarter
Federer’s Quarter
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Ferrer, Nishikori vs. Tsonga, Wawrinka vs. Monfils Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Nishikori vs. Monfils Final: Djokovic vs. Nishikori Champion: Djokovic
Joe Craven’s picks
Djokovic’s Quarter
Murray’s Quarter
Berdych’s Quarter
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Ferrer, Nishikori vs. Tsonga, Simon vs. Monfils Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Nishikori vs. Monfils Final: Djokovic vs. Monfils Champion: Djokovic
Chris de Waard’s picks
Djokovic’s Quarter
Murray’s Quarter
Berdych’s Quarter
Federer’s Quarter
Quarterfinals: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Kyrgios vs. Ferrer, Nishikori vs. Tsonga, Simon vs. Monfils Semifinals: Nadal vs. Ferrer, Nishikori vs. Monfils Final: Nadal vs. Monfils Champion: Nadal
A majority of our analysts picked Djokovic, who has never won the French Open over Nadal, while opinions are mixed in regards to the fate of Tomas Berdych/Kei Nishikori in one quarter, and Gael Monfils/Roger Federer/Stan Wawrinka/Gilles Simon in the bottom half. Steen for example has the seeds holding true to form in the final four, while Chris is predicting the draw gets blown open, as this really is one of the most wide open French Open’s in years.
The rankings basically remain the same going into Roland Garros, Niall and Steen have pulled ahead of the rest of the field to some extent, but Steen is guaranteed to remain in first no matter what happens in Paris
2015 French Open Week 1 Men’s Preview and Predictions (@RolandGarros) Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
It’s time for the second Grand Slam of the season, the 2015 French Open at Stade Roland Garros in Paris. This is one of the most wide open French Opens in years, as the case could be made for at least five different players to claim the title. In addition, the young guns are rising, as over a dozen players under 21 are competing in the main draw and some of them are likely to score some upsets and do well, so read on and check out what all there is offer on the men’s side of the 2015 French Open.
For a look at the Women’s draw, with a full preview and predictions, click here
and here is an in-depth look at young guns, and young gun qualifiers at the 2015 French Open on the men’s side.
2015 French Open Preview and Predictions
French Open
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 24-June 7, 2015
Prize Money: $29,500,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (3)
4: Tomas Berdych (4)
5: Kei Nishikori (5)
6: Rafael Nadal (7)
7: David Ferrer (8)
8: Stan Wawrinka (9)
World #6 Milos Raonic pulled out with a foot injury, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Tommy Haas, both injured are missing, Janko Tipsarevic, and Julien Benneteau were the other withdrawals but all of the other top players are here, including 19 of the top 20.
A rematch of an interesting encounter in Madrid, Tomic lost in a third set tiebreak to the Italian veteran Vanni, who is having a late career breakthrough and will making his grand slam main draw debut as a qualifier. Bernie has been struggling on clay as of late, and has never advanced past the second round of the French, so this match could doom the 27 seed to another early exit in Paris. Vanni is a junkballer, with a game built for clay, as he takes causes weird bounces on his shots, and utilizes the slice and drop shot to win points, rather than power hitting. Tomic has lost five straight matches, and retired in Nice, so his health is also in doubt, while Vanni may be battling fatigue after winning three straight three set matches, including one that finished 16-14 in the 3rd set.
The surprise Sao Paulo finalist will still have to work hard, but this is a winnable match for him, and while Tomic had an excellent spring hard court season, he’s been atrocious on clay, and I don’t see that changing here, thus Vanni in 4 or 5 sets is my pick.
(10)Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jack Sock
By far the best round 1 matchup, this encounter is befitting of a round of 32 or round of 16 contest with the talent that both of these under 25 year olds have at their disposal, and it’s a shame one of them will have to go home after round 1. Dimitrov is of course the favorite, though he has a relatively poor record at the French Open, and has never made it to the second week. The Madrid and Monte Carlo quarterfinalist, and Istanbul semifinalist will have to deal with Sock’s high spinning and vicious forehand that is one of the best 5 in all of men’s tennis.
Since returning from hip surgery this spring, Sock won his first ever ATP title, which came on clay in Houston, and though he is on a three match losing streak on clay, all of those matches were tough three set contests. Sock certainly seems to be improving on clay, and he’s shown tenacity this season and the ability to change the momentum of matches, while Dimitrov has been shaky at times, and really has not performed as well as his top 15 ranking would indicate. I’m still picking Dimitrov, but I see it going five sets, and you can’t count Sock out, as he’s one of the top two American men on clay, and seems to be steadily improving. He’s also fixed his fitness issues that were detrimental in best of 5 set matches.
Nicolas Almagro vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
This should be a fun match between a pair of excellent ballstrikers who can play well above their current rankings when they are on a roll. Almagro, a three time RG quarterfinalist has not played up to his formerly top 20 self since returning from injury this season, but he does have a pair of quarterfinals and a semifinal this season in ATP clay court tournaments.
Dolgopolov has tumbled down the rankings and is out of the top 50 again, but as always he’s a dangerous shotmaker, and excellent mover who always produces highlights, win or lose. He hasn’t played particularly well on clay since early last season, but you can’t count him out against anyone, as he pushed Novak Djokovic to the brink of defeat in Miami.
The head to head is an even 2-2, and 1-1 on clay, Almagro’s recent losses have been better though, an Dolgopolov lost to the horribly out of form Ernests Gulbis in the Nice warm up tournament, so with that in mind I see Almagro pulling through in 4 or 5 sets of highlight filled tennis.
(16)John Isner vs. Andreas Seppi
In theory the 16 seed John Isner should be on upset alert, as he was not given an easy round 1 matchup, that said, Seppi hasn’t played since losing round 1 in Monte Carlo, and that indicates to me the veteran Italian all-courter had some sort of injury that prevented him from playing any further tournaments until RG. Seppi was on fire early on in the season as he recorded a run to the second week at the AO where he upset Federer, and an ATP final and semifinal in between. However his results since then have been pedestrian, and there are question marks surrounding his play right now, though he has the game to defeat Isner, as he has done so before on clay in Rome.
Isner has had a solid season on European red clay by his standards, he comes off the semis in Nice, and he also reached the quarters in Madrid, overall compiling a 9-4 record, with none of those 4 losses being bad ones. He’s not going to threaten any of the top names on clay, even with that huge serve, but he still should be good enough to get past Seppi, perhaps without dropping a set, and it would be a big disappointment if he didn’t get out of the first round here after the clay season he has had, most of all staying healthy, which is a big bonus for the American #1.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. Robin Haase
Cilic is 4-0 against Haase, including two wins on clay, and it’s unlikely he loses this one, but it’s a sleeper match, as Cilic has really struggled since returning from injury, and has yet to find the form that propelled him to his first Grand Slam, and a top 10 ranking. Haase by contrast is a very streaky player who has the technical talents to score big wins (he beat Stan Wawrinka this year in Indian Wells), but has one of the weakest mindsets in men’s tennis, and that weak mental portion of his game means he can lose to just about anyone.
Since reaching the quarters in Monte Carlo, Cilic is just 2-4, and he played relatively poorly in the Geneva warm up tournament prior to this. Haase recently won a challenger on clay, and also reached the quarterfinals in Estoril, so he’s in reasonable form. I’m still picking Cilic, but Haase likely snatches a set, and if Cilic is rusty and off his game, it will be interesting to see if Haase seizes the moment like he did against Wawrinka and scores another top 15 win.
A match to keep an eye because the seeded player could well go down in defeat, the Czech young gun lefty Vesely has a h2h win against Mayer on clay (2014 Casablanca), and though he’s had an erratic season, he has won an ATP title (Auckland), and reached a final, and a semifinal on clay. Mayer by contrast has been having a poor season, though he reached the final Nice, and though that shows his form is improving, it also indicates fatigue could play a factor in a best of 5 sets match.
This run in Nice is the best result Mayer has posted all season on clay, and Vesely is actually more talented, thus the match should be on his racquet. The issue for Jiri is his lack of consistency, he’s as talented as the other young guns such as Kyrgios, and Thiem that have made waves, but he hasn’t been able to put that together on a regular basis. I’m picking Vesely in 4 but this is a tough pick either way.
Rosol, who posted a pair of quarterfinals on clay this season, and has continued his typical rollercoaster form, likely wins this over the next great Swedish hope Ymer, but you can’t count the young gun out, given Rosol has the ability to play some of the best ball bashing tennis you’ll see, an also some of the worst error strewn disasters you can witness. The Czech comes off of qualifying for Geneva and then losing to Stan Wawrinka in round 2.
Ymer, a rising 19 year old who will be playing in his second Grand Slam main draw, after successfully qualifying and then losing in 5 sets at the Australian Open earlier this year. He recently moved to Barcelona to practice full time on clay, and it’s his best surface as he beat Nick Kyrgios in Barcelona, where he reached the round of 16, earlier this year, and had a relatively comfortable qualifying campaign where he didn’t drop a set in his last two matches. Long term Ymer is quite the talent, and he will have success in the future in Paris without a doubt, but winning this math is still likely to be a challenge, and I’m going with Rosol in 4 sets, as he’s a step up from Ymer’s usual level of competition.
Martin Klizan vs. (WC)Francis Tiafoe
The USTA wild card winner Tiafoe, who is just 17 years old, and is a former top junior, only turning pro in April of this year, actually has a punchers chance against the talented but inconsistent Klizan. Big Foe, as our writer Joe Craven calls him, reached the challenger final in Tallahassee, and the Maryland native, who is coached by Jose Higueras, went 12-3 on har-tru clay in those three USTA challenger events. He will be making his grand slam main draw debut, and he made his ATP debut last season in Washington D.C. at the Citi Open. He’s a talent, and he has plenty of charisma but this match represents a huge step up for the teen.
Klizan won the title in Casablanca this year, and also reached the semis in Barcelona but he has suffered two straight losses, and may be rusty, or not entirely healthy going into this match. Again, the favorite should win this, but don’t sleep on Tiafoe, as Klizan has his off days, and it’s unlikely the young American, who raised by immigrant parents and came from humble roots, literally being raised at a tennis facility, will be intimidated by the stage, or the ranking of his opponent.
(12)Gilles Simon vs. (WC)Lucas Pouille
An all French affair that should delight the locals, Simon has a higher ranking, more experience, and a positive record in Paris, but he retired in his last match in Rome, and pulled out of Nice, something that may be precautionary, or could be the sign that his back injury is serious. Simon had a non-headline making, so-so clay court season, and it’s not likely he’ll be high on confidence going into his home grand slam.
Pouille by contrast is a young gun trying to make a name for himself in his third French Open main draw appearance. It feels like Pouille has been tour for a while, but unlike some of the other players who are 21 and younger like himself, he has yet to pull off either a deep run in a big tournament, or a marquee win to put himself in the papers. He has a gifted forehand that can do damage and he’s a talented ballstriker, who can bend the ball to his whims, but his fitness, and at times his shot selection is lacking, and after reaching the semis in Auckland and pushing Gael Monfils to five sets at the AO back in January, he hasn’t done much, besides an upset of Dominic Thiem in Monte Carlo. He struggled in Nice, and also found himself dismantled by Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo, so he’s not exactly in great form, but this is still a match worth watching as you never know if Simon will lay an egg, perhaps due to back pain, though he tends to battle and find a way in slams.
This match is a poor matchup for Pouille as Simon is a human backboard who will massage the ball and likely be able to frustrate the young Frenchman and cause his game to leak errors, as it tends to due under pressure, but the injury concerns for Simon are serious, and that’s why I’m picking Pouille. He will need to be aggressive to get the win, and it’s a risk, but I’m bold enough to pick it.
Two-time, and defending French Open finalist Novak Djokovic is unlikely to drop even a set en route to the third round. Djokovic will open with struggling veteran lefty Jarkko Nieminen, who is fast on his feet, but has declined from his peak, and the Fin is also a player Novak has beaten twice before on clay. After that the winner of Gilles Muller/Paolo Lorenzi awaits, that’s a toss-up match as Muller is not a clay courter, and Lorenzi is a career journeyman, though at his best on clay. I’d go with Muller to get through, but he’s of little threat to Novak on this surface, and Djokovic beat him at the Aussie this year without dropping a set.
In the third round, I have Thanasi Kokkinakis, the Australian teenager, as Novak’s opponent, and it will still be a good showing for him to get that far on clay, though he’s unlikely to threaten Djokovic on this surface. Kokkinakis, who is perfect in ATP qualifying this year and recently won the Bordeaux challenger on clay, will open with qualifer Nikoloz Basilashvili, in the opening round. Basilashvili, the top Georgian player on the ATP tour, has been markedly improved this season and is nearing breakthrough status, but Kokkinakis is simply more talented, and he’s been getting better and better on clay, the more practice that he gets. His movement improving with his lanky frame, and his shots still solid from both wings, especially his forehand side. I feel Kokkinakis actually has more upside than the other part of the Aussie teenage tandem, Nick Kyrgios, and this tournament is likely to increase my belief on that.
Kokkinakis will need to defeat the Vanni/Tomic winner in round 2, if Tomic were to advance, he’ll have a 2-0 h2h against Thanasi with both matches coming this season, including in a competitive match in Indian Wells, but on clay things actually favor Kokkinakis style of play, as Tomic is not a good dirtballer. Vanni, who I have winning in my own bracket, is likely to be fatigued, and his slice and dice game is a good matchup for Kokkinakis, compared to Tomic’s junkballing. Look for Djokovic to reach the second week without dropping a set, and Kokkinakis to be a pleasant surprise in the opening week.
Estoril champion and 20 seed Richard Gasquet is another who could reach the second week without dropping a set. Gasquet will open with 26 year old Belgian qualifier Germain Gigounon, who qualified with relative ease and reached a challenger final on clay earlier this season, that said, Gigounon is making his slam debut, and has never even played an ATP main draw match, so not much should be expected of him. Gasquet’s second opponent will be either Carlos Berlocq, the veteran Argentine grinder, or surprise qualifier Illya Marchenko, who rarely plays on clay, and is a journeyman, but still tour through three qualifying matches. Berlocq has lost four straight matches, with two retirements mixed in, so he may not even be healthy, regardless, neither player is a threat to Gasquet’s versatile game, and the home French fans should enjoy his smooth strokes later on into the tournament.
In the third round, Gasquet is again likely to face a weak opponent, as Blaz Kavcic/Rendy Lu/Tim Smyczek/Kevin Anderson are his options. Kavcic and Lu are both poor on clay and rarely play on the surface, Kavcic having lost three straight. Smyczek is another player who is poor on clay, and Anderson has struggled this year on the surface as well though he did reach the semis in Houston. Given that Anderson is the highest ranked player here, has a 4-0 h2h with Smyczek, and is unlikely to be troubled by Lu/Kavcic, he should be Gasquet’s third round opponent with Gasquet advancing. With only a hard court h2h, Gasquet leads it 4-2.
The Dimitrov/Sock winner will face Pablo Carreno Busta/Victor Estrella in round 2, that’s a tough match as both players have been both good and bad on clay as of late. Estrella reached the final in Quito on clay, reached the third round in Barcelona with two upset wins, and was also a quarterfinalist in Munich, while Carreno reached the semis in Estoril but has been awful otherwise. Look for Estrella to win but then lose to Dimitrov in the next round, though Dimitrov could have problems through his first two matches.
In the third round, danger should continue to loom for the Bulgarian #1, as Croatian teenager Borna Coric is lurking as a sleeper pick to do well this tournament. The 2015 Dubai, and Nice semifinalist, who also reached the quarters in Estoril on clay this season, will open with American Sam Querrey, who reached the final in Houston on clay but has been in poor form since. Presuming Coric beats Querrey, which talent wise is likely if the Croatian can keep his head on straight, he should also beat the 18 seed Tommy Robredo, who has struggled to stay healthy this season and hasn’t played since Barcelona. Robredo’s career is slowing down, but he still should beat journeyman lucky loser Andrey Golubev. Coric represents a fresher and more difficult challenge, and though Robredo is a steady veteran and a five time quarterfinalist here, expectations have to be low for this French Open. I still have Dimitrov sneaking past Coric, perhaps in a five setter to reach the second week, Coric has beaten Nadal, and Murray over the past 12 months, so he doesn’t get intimidated, but Dimitrov still has more experience and should have that extra edge to get the job done.
Below that, we have the 9 time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal, who has a 66-1 record at the tournament, but has struggled this season, and seen his ranking drop him out of the top 5, and right into the world #1’s quarter of the draw. No matter his struggles this season, Nadal should have no problem blitzing past overmatched French youngster Quentin Halys, a wild card, but the second round should be more challenging, as he’s guaranteed to face a player who has beaten him before, the Almagro/Dolgopolov winner. Presuming it’s Almagro, Nadal has blown him out twice this season, including on clay, so Rafa is still likely safe to pencil in for the third round, and probably doesn’t drop a set. Dolgopolov is the more explosive opponent, but he’s harder to predict.
Nadal’s third round opponent shouldn’t be overly difficult, as it will be one of Adrian Mannarino/Jurgen Melzer/Andrey Kuznetsov/Malek Jaziri. Kuznetsov, who qualified in Monte Carlo and Geneva, could randomly reach the third round, as Jaziri is a good ball striker with awful fitness, not to mention not overly great on clay, and neither Mannarino, nor Melzer, who is long removed from his run to the semis here in 2010, is in good form. Mannarino is the weakest seed in the draw, and Melzer has done nothing this clay court season, so I have Nadal crushing Kuznetsov to reach the second week.
The Madrid, and Munich champion AndyMurray, is undefeated on clay this year (10-0), and is having his best season since back surgery, as he also reached the AO final, and the final in Miami. Thus, even though never being known as a clay court star, the Scotsman, who spent years as a junior training in Spain on clay, is actually a bit of a dark horse favorite to win the French Open. That’s a big ask, and I’ll tell you now I don’t see that happening unless carnage happens in the Djokovic/Nadal section, but he still should have a good tournament, and could reach this third RG semifinal, after earning his second one last year. Murray will open with lucky loser Facundo Arguello, a young Argentine who takes after the fiery former French Open champion Gaston Gaudio, Arguello has struggled to see his talent translate to the main tour level, so Murray is likely to give him the runaround and beat him without dropping a set. After that, Geneva finalist Joao Sousa, or Vasek Pospisil awaits the UK #1, Pospisil is poor on clay and has had a terrible season in singles, unable to find form, and Sousa should be tired, so Murray should reach round 3 without dropping a set. Murray is 5-0 against Sousa over the past three seasons, and he’s never lost a set against the Portugese #1.
In the third round, fearless, and charismatic Aussie teenager Nick Kyrgios will be looking to give Murray all he can handle, and not only get revenge for his previous h2h loss, but also score yet another top 10 win, after NK previously beat Roger Federer this season in a Madrid thriller, and Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. Kyrgios pulled out of Nice with an injury, and he’s had back problems earlier this season, but overall he continues to show improvement and he’s seeded for the first time in a slam, after reaching the quarters at the AO, and reaching his first ATP final in Estoril. Kyrgios will open against the struggling Denis Istomin, and presuming he’s fit and wins that one he will face the winner of Kyle Edmund/Stephane Robert, both of whom are qualifiers. The South African born, English resident Edmund is another young gun in the draw, while Robert is one of the oldest active players on tour at 35, and has been a journeyman all throughout his career. Edmund has been more impressive in qualifying and this season, and he could even shock Kyrgios, but NK plays his best on big stages, so I still see him getting through to the third round.
With the form Murray is in, I actually don’t think the match will be that close, likely four sets or three as a motivated Murray is 2-0 in the h2h against Kyrgios and has yet to lose a set to him, Murray truly has performed well on clay this season, and the coaching team of Amelie Mauresmo and Jonas Bjorkman really seems to have helped him improve on the surface, as his movement, and counterpunching is finally paying dividends. He’s had success at RG before as well, which should help, and he should be fit and rested.
The Isner/Seppi winner will take on Jeremy Chardy/Michael Berrer in round 2. Presuming Isner is fit, I’m pretty comfortable picking him to reach the third round with the favorable draw that he has. Chardy is just 2-4 in his last six matches, and Berrer is a career journeyman serve and volleyer in the last year of his career. He qualified without dropping a set, and of course beat Nadal this season, so he really has had a great year by his standards, and I do in fact have him upsetting Chardy given the h2h, but Isner’s relentless serves should do him in.
In that third round, David Goffin is big John’s likely opponent. Goffin, a quarterfinalist in both Rome, and Munich hasn’t been on fire like he was last Fall, but he’s still been good enough this season to beat Filip Krajinovic his round 1 opponent who is a fringe ATP player, and then Geneva semifinalist Santiago Giraldo, who has been worse this year compared to last year, and not much should be expected of. Giraldo has a big game, while Goffin is a steady ball striker, and the slow RG courts should favor the Belgian. Goffin and Isner have never met on clay (1-1 on hard courts), and as surprising as it is, Isner’s results have been slightly better on clay this year than D Goff, thus I have him reaching the round of 16, but I could certainly be wrong about that, and it’s a tough call either way.
David Ferrer, a former French Open finalist who reached the semis in both Barcelona, and Rome this spring, should blitz through the first two rounds without dropping a set, the underachieving Lukas Lacko is his round 1 opponent, and then he’ll be eyeing Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Joao Souza on the other side of the net in round 2. Souza is on a 7 match losing streak since losing the longest Davis Cup match in history, while DGT has had a career year on clay this year, with an ATP final in Casablanca, a semi in Bucharest, and a quarterfinal in Istanbul. That said, Souza is 3-0 against DGT, no matter neither player has the game to trouble Ferrer, an he’s 3-0 against DGT, including a win this year.
I foresee Simone Bolelli as the matchup for Ferrer in the third round, Bolelli is a talented shotmaker, but he struggles to be consistent, as evidenced by his lone ATP quarterfinal on clay this spring in Bucharest. He will open with serve and volleyer Steve Darcis, who has lost three straight and may not be healthy. In round 2, Bolelli is likely to get an interesting match, as the Viktor Troicki/JL Struff clash is intriguing. Struff is a talented, but underachieving 25 year old who has a challenger semi on clay this year, and isn’t mentally strong, while Troicki snapped a four match losing streak to win two matches in Rome. VT hasn’t been on the same tear he was when he came back from a doping suspension, and in his cooled off state, Bolelli should capitalize. The h2h is 3-3, but Troicki won both their hard court meetings this season. Ferrer is 5-0 against Bolelli and beat him at the French last year, so I don’t foresee the match being that close, same goes if he were to face Troicki.
The Cilic/Haase winner is set to face James Duckworth or Andrea Arnaboldi, Arnaboldi a 27 year old Italian dirtballer, had to battle to qualify. while Duckworth has been in good form, sneaking into the quarterfinals of Nice, and also reaching a challenger semi on clay this spring. The 23 year old Aussie isn’t one you would think to win on nationality alone, but I have him beating a tired Arnaboldi, before falling to Cilic in round 2.
Vesely/Mayer or Jerzy Janowicz/Maxime Hamou await in round 3, most likely the Vesely/Mayer winner. Hamou is another young French wild card who is likely to be overwhelmed by the situation, as he barely has any experience at the top level, as he made his ATP debut in Nice just last week. Regardless, Janowicz hasn’t won a set, much less a match on clay this year (0-3), so I give him little chance against Vesely/Mayer. Cilic just beat Vesely in Madrid in straights, so he should be the favorite for the round of 16, but don’t sleep on Vesely, he could reach the second week of a slam for the first time.
Berdych’s Quarter:
Tomas Berdych has had a tremendous under the radar season and he’s earned his own quarter of the draw. The 29 year old Monte Carlo finalist, and Australian Open semifinalist, who has performed well in every single tournament he’s entered, not losing before the quarterfinals, will open with young gun Japanese qualifier Yoshihito Nishioka. Nishioka is an undersized player with fast footwork, who packs a punch on his groundstrokes given his small frame, but Berdych is likely to blast him off the court. After Nishioka, who is making his Grand Slam main draw debut, Berdych should cruise past the winner of Ivan Dodig/Radek Stepanek, a pair of formerly solid players who haven’t been the same since injuries. Stepanek is an aging serve and volleyer on a three match losing streak, while Dodig has two ATP quarterfinals, including one on clay in Istanbul, but nothing else of note this season. Berdych is close to a lock for round 3.
In that third round, Fabio Fognini is his likely opponent, the Italian headcase, who has one ATP final, and one ATP quarterfinal on clay this season (Rio and Barcelona), but has struggled against opponents not named Rafael Nadal, will open with Tatsuma Ito, a Japanese player who is poor on, and rarely plays clay. After that, we could be treated to a headcase special, as Fognini is likely to face Frenchman Benoit Paire. Paire is just 1-4 in his last five matches on clay, but he’s still done well to work his ranking back up to this level. Benwa, and his gifted backhand, will open up against qualifier Gastao Elias, a fringe ATP player from Portugal. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Elias won, but regardless, unless Fognini implodes, which is always possible, he should beat Paire/Elias to reach the third round, as he’s a better player talent wise on clay. Fognini is 2-1 against Berdych on clay, but Berdych survived a third set tiebreak and defeated him in Rome, and given his consistency in the big tournaments this year, I’d give him the edge to reach week 2.
14 seed and former RG semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a home fan favorite will open with Swedish qualifier Christian Lindell, as Sweden has two players in a Grand Slam main draw for the first time in years. Tsonga has been pedestrian with a lack of notable results since returning from injury, but he shouldn’t have any issue with Lindell who is making his grand slam main draw debut. Tsonga will then be a heavy favorite against either Dudi Sela or Mikhail Kukushkin. Sela is poor on clay and Kukushkin has lost three straight, so I don’t see Tsonga losing a set going into round 3.
Tsonga’s round 3 opponent will be either the Philipp Kohlschreiber/Go Soeda winner, or the winner of Pablo Andujar/Albert Ramos. Kohli was a finalist in Munich, and a quarterfinalist in Barcelona, while Soeda basically never plays on clay. Andujar/Ramos is an interesting match, they have played each other a ton of times and Andujar has won the last two meetings, including in Barcelona this year. Both players have ATP quarterfinals on clay this year, while Andujar has a final in Barcelona, regardless of winner, I have Kohlschreiber advancing into the third round. Tsonga has never lost Kohlschreiber (7-0), and with that matchup difference, and Tsonga have the home fans behind him, I favor him to go into the round of 16.
5 seed Kei Nishikori, a semifinalist in Madrid, and champion in Barcelona, will open with French veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu, who should be calling it a career soon. The 33 year old is back to being a challenger, and fringe ATP player, ranked outside of the top 100, though he used to be quite solid. After a win over PHM, Nishikori should run into the in-form, but likely fatigued Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci won the title in Geneva, and his first round opponent Marinko Matosevic is in awful form (8 straight losses). Bellucci also qualified in Madrid, and Rome, and reached the quarterfinals in Istanbul. I’d worry about Nishikori against the big hitting Bellucci, but I feel the fatigue factor, and the fact Bellucci, who took a set off of Djokovic in Rome, tends to choke under pressure, gives Nishikori enough of an advantage to get him to round 3, perhaps with difficulty.
32 seed Fernando Verdasco should be the challenge for Nishikori/Bellucci in round 3. Verdasco will open with qualifier Taro Daniel, the fifth Japanese player in the draw (Nishikori, Soeda, Ito, and Nishioka are the others). Daniel, who trains and makes his home in Spain, plays his best on clay, and he has one ATP quarterfinal on clay, this will be his second Grand Slam main draw. Verdasco, and his huge forehand, will face the winner of Benjamin Becker/Ruben Bemelmans, after defeating the lanky Daniel. Bemelmans isn’t in great form, but Becker’s form is even worse, as he has lost six straight matches, and the veteran is not good on clay, thus I have Bemelmans winning, and then losing to Verdasco. Nando was a semifinalist in Houston but hasn’t done much else this clay season, thus Nishikori should advance, perhaps again with trouble, they battled it out in Indian Wells this year and Kei was the winner.
The 11 seed Feliciano Lopez is a poor 4-5 this spring on clay, and given all of his losses are pretty bad, expectations have to be low coming into the French for him. He will open with Teymuraz Gabashvili, who is a remarkable 14-2 over his last few tournaments. Most of those wins were in qualifying or on the challenger tour, but that’s still an impressive record, as he won two challengers in a row. Lopez is 2-0 against Gabashvili, but those matches were on a hard court, and with Gabashvili getting a bit of rest, I’m actually calling an upset, and putting him through over Flopez into round 2. The winner of Juan Monaco/Federico Delbonis awaits in what will be an all-Argentine encounter. Delbonis has a h2h win over Monaco on clay, and he has an ATP semi in Geneva, and a challenger title on the surface this spring. Monaco was a quarterfinalist in both Miami and Nice. Given his experience, I’m giving Monaco the edge by a hair. Monaco has two previous wins against Gabashvili, including a three setter this year in Indian Wells, so I have the loveable Pico into the third round.
19 seed Roberto Bautista Agut is the player most likely to face Monaco/Delbonis/Gabashvili/Lopez, in that open third round section. RBA opens with Florian Mayer, who is just 2-5 since coming back to the tour from injury. The Spaniard reached the Munich semis and the Barcelona quarters, and I also favor him to defeat Rosol/Ymer. RBA has a h2h win last season against Rosol on clay. I favor RBA to reach the round of 16, no matter who his third round opponent is, and it’s RBA/Monaco in my bracket.
Federer’s Quarter:
The 2009 Roland Garros champion, and the only player besides Nadal with over 60 wins in Paris, is Roger Federer, the Swiss legend and #2 seed will face lucky loser Alejandro Falla in round 1. He has beaten Falla twice before in Paris, and he didn’t lose a set in those matches (overall 7-0 h2h). Federer won Istanbul, and was a finalist in Rome, so it’s unlikely that he’ll have any issue against Falla or his next opponent, which will be Marcel Granollers or Matthias Bachinger. Bachinger, a journeyman, has qualified for both slams this season with ease, but he’s 0-3 against Granollers who is 4-3 in his last seven matches, after being abysmal prior to that. Federer is 3-0 against Granollers and has only lost 1 set to him, so I honestly see the Swiss maestro reaching round 3 without dropping a set.
Federer’s third round opponent should be quite easy, as he got a great early draw. Both Ivo Karlovic and Marcos Baghdatis are poor on clay, and have lost two straight matches, Baghdatis has a h2h edge over Dr. Ivo, so I have him reaching round 2. Veteran Russian Mikhail Youzhny has been awful this season and is 3-5 on clay, retirement looms for him and Casablanca semifinalist Damir Dzumhur, a 23 year old, will look to aid in Youzhny being pushed out to pasture. I have Dzumhur beating both Youzhny and Baghdatis to surprisingly reach the third round in a very weak section of the draw. His form has slightly been superior, and he has the talent to pull it off. Federer should demolish him though.
13 seed Gael Monfils, a former semifinalist in Paris, and a fan favorite, will take on Edouard Roger-Vasselin. ERV has lost three straight, and he’s poor on clay, while Monfils was a semifinalist in both Monte Carlo, and Bucharest. Presuming Gael is heathy, which is always a question mark, he should beat ERV and the Diego Schwartzman/Andreas Haider-Maurer winner in round 2 to reach the third round. DSS/AHM is an interesting first round match that just missed my cut for matches to watch, mostly because AHM has lost three straight after previously reaching an ATP semi (Rio) and quarterfinal (Casablanca) on clay, and winning two matches in Monte Carlo. Istanbul semifinalist Schwartzman, who retired in his last match in Rome, and is a rising young gun, who has a steady compact game built for clay, should win that matchup, before falling to Monfils. DSS is promising, but I don’t think he has the weapons in his arsenal to beat the speedy and defensively sound Monfils.
A big second round match is likely to take place between Dominic Thiem, and 21 seed Pablo Cuevas. Thiem won the title in Nice, thus fatigue might play a factor in his performance, but he’s still likely to defeat Aljaz Bedene in round 1. Bedene did win the Rome challenger on clay, and reached a quarterfinal in Casablanca on the surface, so he’s improving, but likely not up to Thiem’s level. Thiem is 8-2 since struggling in the early part of the clay court season, as he seems to has found his rhythm, and his fitness right when he needed to do so for Paris. Cuevas won an ATP title in Sao Paulo on clay this year, and has two quarterfinals and a final, that one coming in Istanbul, on the surface in 2015. His form has been up and down, but credit to him for building up his ranking into a seed worthy player, and though he’s unlikely to threaten the top names, he’s a reliable dirtballer. Thiem and Cuevas hae never met, but with Thiem likely to be fatigued, I have Cuevas reaching the third round to face off with Monfils, Thiem is the flashier pick but Cuevas deserves his due, and Thiem has been hard to trust this season. A healthy Monfils should be favored other Thiem or Cuevas to reach the round of 16.
8 seed Stan Wawrinka will open with Turkish #1 Marsel Ilhan, Wawrinka has had a very shaky 2015 and is just 6-4 on clay this year. He comes off a bad loss to Delbonis in Geneva, a home tournament, and his only good result on clay this year was the semifinals in Rome, where he got routed by Federer, after beating Nadal. No matter the reasons for his struggles in 2015, I’m bearish on his chances in Paris, but not in his first two matches, as Ilhan and either Dusan Lajovic or Maximo Gonzalez are not difficult opponents who have the game to beat Stan the man. Lajovic was a quarterfinalist in Nice, while Gonzalez has lost three straight matches. Wawrinka really shouldn’t drop a set going in the first two rounds, but with his current poor form, he may do that.
In the third round, Wawrinka could face the opponent that shocked him in Paris last year, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. The all-court, multi tool Spaniard, who has two ATP titles this year, one coming on clay, along with a semifinal in Estoril, as he has put together a solid campaign thus far, will open with American Steve Johnson. Johnson is a respectable 3-5 on clay this spring, and he’s improving on the surface, but I give him little chance against an experienced dirtballer like GGL. GGL should likewise breeze past a player who isn’t comfortable on clay in round 2, either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Ricardas Berankis. Stako has lost two straight, and is 0-3 in the h2h against Rycka, but Berankis has lost three straight and been in terrible form for a couple of months now. I have GGL over Stako for a spot in the third round in my bracket.
Wawrinka has had the edge over GGL on other surfaces, but on clay their h2h is an even 3-3, and GGL has won two of their last three meetings. Wawrinka showed no signs of improvement in Geneva, and the Rome win over Nadal feels more like an aberration than anything else, to me the writing is on the wall that he’s going to struggle here, and I have GGL booting him out again for a spot in the round of 16, this would also avenge GGL’s loss to Wawrinka the AO this January.
Pouille/Simon will take on Tiafoe/Klizan in round 2, As mentioned up at the top of the preview, I have Pouille upsetting Simon, and then Klizan edging Tiafoe, setting up that second rounder. If Simon is healthy enough, he should be fine to reach round 3, and I don’t trust Klizan’s health either, while Tiafoe and Pouille lack experience. I have Pouille making a shock run to round 3 in my bracket, but this is the hardest section to pick in my mind, with Simon and Klizan having question marks.
This is by far the worst section of the draw, as just above it, the seed is Ernests Gulbis, who only has two wins this season and a bunch of losses, he defends semifinal points, and will open with qualifier Igor Sijsling, who broke a six match losing streak to qualify, and is a known choker. Gulbis could well crash and burn, but I don’t see Sijsling beating him honestly, and thus I have him into round 2 against the winner of Nicolas Mahut/Kimmer Coppejans. Coppejans is a promising 21 year old Belgian, while Mahut is 33, outside the top 100, and nearly retired. The serve and volleyer isn’t at his best on clay, and he has two straight losses. Coppejans recently won a title, and reached a final on clay at the challenger level and was strong in qualifying.
I have Coppejans defeating Mahut, and then upsetting Gulbis to reach round 3, it’s a risky pick, and Coppejans hasn’t blossomed as much as he could results wise, though he has the skills, because his mental fortitude is lacking, but I’m giving the young Belgian his due here, in such a weak section. I have Coppejans beating Pouille to reach the round of 16 as a qualifier, because he has a h2h win against him on clay, and his recent form has been slightly better, either way I give Pouille/Coppejans/Tiafoe a better shot at reaching the second week than the seed Gulbis. Given that he was a semifinalist last year, that’s shocking, but it demonstrates how far he’s fallen, and the young guns are rising.
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Borna Coric, Jiri Vesely, Thomaz Bellucci, Kimmer Coppejans/Lucas Pouille
Coric will need to rise up and find the form that pushed him to semifinal runs in Basel and Dubai, but his run to the semis in Nice shows form and promise, and Dimitrov has been shown to be beatable this season. if Grisha slips up look for Coric to seize the day and reach the second week to do battle with Rafa, who he of course has beaten before.
Vesely will have a tricky path to week 2, as he will need to defeat Mayer, and probably Cilic, but when he’s in-form he’s a great player and he can pull that off, it’s really just a matter of which Jiri shows up. Don’t count him out for the round of 16.
Bellucci has been in tremendous form in recent weeks, fatigue could play a factor, as will mentality, but if he keeps the mojo flowing, and battles past Nishikori he could go as far as the quarterfinals. It’s not likely, but he has perhaps the most range, in terms of result, of any of the non-seeded players.
I see Coppejans or Pouille reaching the second week in a weak section, would be a career result for either player, the section is theirs for the taking, depending on which one players their best. Pouille is the slightly better aggressor, while Coppejans is more defensively sound.
Week 1 Predictions (round of 16 matchups)
Djokovic d. Gasquet in 3 Nadal d. Dimitrov in 3
Djokovic dominates the h2h against Gasquet and has two wins on clay against him, I see no reason why he won’t reach the quarterfinals, and he probably doesn’t drop a set in the process. Nadal is 6-0 against Dimitrov with 3 wins on clay, and he just beat him in Madrid in routine fashion. This is Nadal at the French, and Dimitrov has not looked like a star this year, so again Rafa could reach the quarters without dropping a set.
Murray d. Isner in 3 Ferrer d. Cilic in 4
Murray is 4-0 against Isner, including a big Davis Cup win this year, this is also clay, and Murray has a great return game, so given form and matchup, Murray in 3 or 4 sets is a safe pick. Ferrer and Cilic have a split h2h on clay, but Ferrer has been in way better form this season, so he should reach the quarters, and I believe he would beat Cilic in 3 or 4 sets.
Nishikori d. Bautista Agut in 3 Berdych d. Tsonga in 3
Nishikori has beaten RBA twice this season on clay, and three times overall, if he gets this far, I don’t see him losing before the quarterfinals as it’s a bad matchup for the Spaniard. Berdych is 7-2 against Tsonga, and just beat him in Madrid on clay, these players have been entirely divergent in terms of form in 2015, and Berdych has been strong for players the caliber that Tsonga is at right now.
Garcia-Lopez d. Coppejans in 3 Federer d. Monfils in 5
GGL or Wawrinka should simply be superior to any player that gets out of the section below them, thus it’s a great shot a slam quarterfinal for Garcia-Lopez. Monfils upset Federer in Monte Carlo and has beaten him the past two times on clay without dropping a set, that said, Federer has won both of their matches at Roland Garros, and in a best of 5 format in a Grand Slam, I give him the edge for experience alone. I don’t feel Monfils can maintain his focus and consistency long enough to win a match like that, and will give up a break in the end to put Federer through.
Picking the rest of the way
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Nadal in 4
The final before the final will happen in the top half men’s quarterfinal if Nadal and Djokovic meet as expected. The debate since the clay court season began in earnest in Monte Carlo has been swirling as to whether Rafa or Novak would win a best of 5 match this year at Roland Garros. Djokovic beat Nadal rather routinely in Monte Carlo, a venue that Rafa has an amazing record at, and he has won two of their last three meetings on clay. That said Nadal is 6-0 at the French Open against Novak, and he’s only been pushed to five sets one time (The 2013 semifinals). Many have said that Nadal is simply a different beast at RG, and no matter his form, or how well Novak is playing, there is a mental and surface factor that will always give Nadal an edge when they meet on Chatrier.
I’m apt to disagree, as the Rafa of late 2014/2015 has been a totally different beast, a neutered beast compared to his previous self, including on clay. He has look abysmal and lost at times on the surface this year, and it’s not that his opponents have just outplayed him, it’s that he’s beaten himself, spewing errors, and lacking confidence and consistency. He showed flashes of brilliance in Monte Carlo against Novak but he couldn’t maintain that level and the defensive skills, returning and pushing of Djokovic proved too much for him. Novak has been a total machine this year, especially when it’s mattered against the big four, and late in tournaments. I have a feeling that the world #1 is unstoppable right now, and he should be rested and motivated. If he is ever to win Roland Garros, this is his time with Nadal clearly limping into the tournament and out of the top 5. This matchup is relatively even and both guys know each other well, but the form of Novak, and his tenacity should be able to edge out Rafa, and I don’t even think it will be that close, as I have Novak winning in four sets. Soderling was the only one to beat Nadal at RG, but I don’t see it staying that way this year. Djokovic has been better able to handle intense pressure in recent months, than Nadal has, and I feel the Spaniard is under more pressure with his ranking under the threat of collapse, than Djokovic is right now, given that he’s dominating the fast surfaces and winning almost every tournament that he enters, along with baffling his other rivals Federer and Murray.
Murray d. Ferrer in 4
Murray is 0-4 against Ferrer on clay, so this would be another pick that would buck the head to head trend, but again, Murray has been in excellent form as of late, and he’s performed very well in the big tournaments. He seems to be swinging freely, he’s healthy, and also in excellent spirits with his new marriage and all. Ferrer is a solid player, but against top players, his approach is more to grind and let them beat themselves, as he lacks the weapons to outright win against a big four player. Murray has reached the semis twice before, and I don’t see reason why he won’t do so for a third time this year. His clay court game seems to finally be blossoming as he beat Nishikori and Nadal on the surface in Madrid.
Berdych d. Nishikori in 5
Nishikori is 3-1 against Berdych, but Tomas won their only match on clay (Monte Carlo 2012), additionally, Berdych has not lost to a player outside of the big four except to Wawrinka in Rotterdam, he’s been incredibly reliable this year, almost machinelike, and Kei is good on clay, and he’s been fine, but he hasn’t been up to that same level, my perception is Berdych has an extra gear right now that will push him through in this battle.
Federer d. Garcia-Lopez in 3
Federer is 3-0 against GGL, and I see no reason why the Federer/Monfils winner won’t reach the quarters, even if Wawrinka gets this far, he was awful against Federer in Rome, so regardless this should be perhaps the most routine quarterfinal, as all of the quarterfinals look promising this year.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Murray in 4
Federer d. Berdych in 3
Djokovic is 2-0 against Murray on clay, and hasn’t lost to him since he had back surgery, they have met three times this year, all on hard courts and the set score was 7-2, given this is clay, if Novak gets this far, I don’t see a way he loses to Murray unless Nadal simply puts him in a wheelchair in a quarterfinal grindfest. If it’s Nadal that gets to this point, I’d actually give Murray a decent chance at reaching the final, but against Djokovic, even as a Murray fan, I have no belief that he can win right now.
Federer has thrashed Berdych twice this year without dropping a set including in Rome on clay. Federer is 4-0 against Tomas on clay, and has only lost a set to him, and that was on fast and slippery blue clay in Madrid. Berdych has been excellent and tenacious against non-big four players this season, but he’s been toothless against the games elite, and I don’t see that changing here, it’s a mental block more than anything else as to why.
Final:
Djokovic d. Federer in 4
Djokovic just routined Federer in Rome, and he’s won three of their last four meetings on clay, in a best of 5 set format, Djokovic, because of his superior stamina, especially on clay where it will be harder for the older Federer to shorten points, has the advantage these days. Federer can’t be written off, but Djokovic is more likely to win his first French Open, than Federer is to win his second. He’s the oddsmakers favorite, and I’m going with Djokovic to win the 2015 French Open, if he wins it this time, it will be a well deserved and well earned victory.
Tennis Atlantic 