2018 ATP Moscow features Home Heroes Daniil Medevev, Karen Khachanov, and Andrey Rublev Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 Kremlin Cup ATP 250 primarily features a strong contingent of home Russian players vying for late season ATP success.
Top Half:
Top seed Marco Cecchinato isn’t near his best on hard courts but he did find a bit of form in recent weeks, enough to make him a favorite against either Adrian Mannarino or Evgeny Karlovskiy. Mannarino is in awful form. Benoit Paire looks set to have a good week, his first opponent Mischa Zverev is in a form slump, Egor Gerasimov/Damir Dzumhur aren’t the most difficult round 2 opponents, and Cecchinato in the quarters is a very winnable match.
Filip Krajinovic could find form and put together a good tournament, but I have Mikhail Kukushkin pulling an upset, defeating the Serbian after defeating Evgeny Donskoy in round 1. Pierre-Hugues Herbert is in tremendous form as well, PHH opens with Alexander Bublik, Martin Klizan/Andreas Seppi will follow. I’ll back Kukushkin against Herbert as I feel the Frenchman will run out of gas by the quarterfinals.
Tokyo champion Daniil Medvedev has the inside track to reach the quarters with a win against Dusan Lajovic or Filip Horansky. Jeremy Chardy has a tough match against Denis Istomin first up, and then he’ll face the in-form Aljaz Bedene (or Laslo Djere) in round 2. I’ll take Medvedev over Chardy or Bedene in the quarters.
Andrey Rublev will be hoping that home cooking will help him find form. The young Russian has struggled for large parts of this season, but he gets an out of sorts Nick Kyrgios round 1, and then Malek Jaziri/Mirza Basic await in round 2. I’ll take Jaziri over Rublev, with Karen Khachanov reaching the semifinals with a win against Lukas Rosol/Matteo Berrettini before defeating Jaziri in the quarters.
David Ferrer moved closer to clinching one of the final World Tour Finals slots with his 5th title of the season in Vienna. The Spanish veteran did one better than his final in the Austrian capital last year and slipped past maiden ATP finalist Steve Johnson 4-6 6-4 7-5 to take the title. The American Johnson played hard and continues his career best season but Ferrer survived in the clutch.
The final was the toughest match for Ferrer since a three set victory over countryman Albert Ramos in round 1, and from there he went on to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Fabio Fognini, and Gael Monfils in routine straight set affairs. Ferrer has now captured three ATP 500 level titles this season.
Johnson found form after escaping his first two matches with three set victories over Alex Dolgopolov and Jerzy Janowicz. In the quarterfinals he upset Kevin Anderson in three sets, and Ernests Gulbis in straight sets, as Gulbis was denied a spot in his first ATP final of the season. Stevie J, a former NCAA standout, continues to improve and has now cemented himself as a solid player on the ATP tour, having matured his game beyond simply a powerful forehand.
Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo beat Jamie Murray/John Peers to win the doubles final in a battle of doubles specialists.
Americans fell to 0-2 in ATP finals this weekend when Tomas Berdych demolished Jack Sock 7-6 6-2 for his third career ATP Stockholm title. The in-form Berdych has now equaled his number of trophies from last year with a late run of form this Fall. He won Shenzen, and now has Stockholm to go with it.
The powerful Czech didn’t drop a set in all four of his matches this week and faced few challenges against Alex Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, and an injured Marcos Baghdatis en route to the final. Sock needed three sets against both Pablo Carreno Busta and Fernando Verdasco, but like his buddy Johnson in Vienna, he got hot in the quarterfinals and semifinals and upset Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet to reach the final. The 23 year old American is in the midst of a career year and now has two ATP finals (with 1 title) on his resume.
Sock did one better in doubles, teaming with Nick Monroe to take the title over Mate Pavic/Michael Venus. Sock has three ATP doubles titles this season.
In one more note, Finland’s best ever tennis player Jarkko Nieminen finished up his ATP career with a hard fought third set defeat in Stockholm.
Top seed Marin Cilic won his first title of the season as he repeated as champion in Moscow 6-4 6-4 in an hour and a half over Roberto Bautista Agut. The title will aid Cilic as he seeks to return to the top 10, and make sure he finishes in the top 15 by the end of the year.
The Croatian was only troubled by Denis Istomin in his first match, prevailing in three sets, and he beat Russian hopes Andrey Kuznetsov and surprise semifinalist Evgeny Donskoy to reach the final. Bautista Agut found form and beat Marsel Ilhan, Lucas Pouille, and Philipp Kohlschreiber over the same span without dropping a set. This final is his best result of the season after multiple ATP semifinal appearances.
The wild card pairing of young gun Andrey Rublev and Russian veteran Dmitry Tursunov took home the doubles title over Radu Albot/Frantisek Cermak. The 32 year old Tursunov has been out with injuries for a year and his run in doubles comes as a shock given the rust factor.
Seeds Triumph as Dusan Lajovic, Tatsuma Ito Qualify in Moscow
Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
Serbian Dusan Lajovic and Japan’s Tatsuma Ito sailed into the main draw of the Kremlin Cup after coming through three rounds in a draw which consisted of 20 Russian players.
One of the most noticeable Russian players was Dimitry Tursunov. The 32-year-old was playing his first competitive match for over a year after being sidelined from the tour due to Plantar fasciitis (inflammation of a thick band of tissue that runs across the bottom of your foot). In the first round, he won his first singles victory since June 2014 after beating 19-year-old Daniil Medvedev in three close sets, winning 9-7 in the final set tie-break. The reward for Tursunov was a showdown with top seed Lajovic. The former world No.20 was unable to continue his run as Lajovic eased to the victory (6-3, 6-4). After losing to the top seed, Tursunov has reportedly set a deadline for his career.
In the final round Lajovic faced German fifth seed Tobias Kamke. Kamke dropped just three games in his first two qualifying matches (two to Alexandr Lgoshin and one to Phillip Davydemnko). The Serbian survived a tough match by saving eight out of nine break points. Kamke had an opportunity to take the first set 6-4, but failed to take advantage of it. The failure by Kamke hampered him for the rest of the match as Lajovic won four consecutive games to take the first set before opening up an early lead in the second to swiftly take the match 7-5, 6-3, after an hour and 35 minutes.
Second seed Ito reached the main draw after overcoming a duo of Russian opponents (in the first round Estonia’s Vladimir Ivanov retired in the second set due to injury). In the second round Ito survived a scare against world No.1025 Richard Muzaev after getting off to a sluggish start. Muzaev has won eight Future titles in his career (two singles and six doubles). After the poor start, Ito took the match 1-6, 6-2, 6-1. In the last round he played Russian world No.560 Alexander Vasilenko who stunned eight seed Peda Krstin in the second round. Ito was two points away from losing the second set as the Russian unexpectedly moved ahead 5-2. Vasilenko was, however unable to stage the upset as Ito clawed his way back to take the match in straight sets – 6-1, 7-6 (4).
Spanish sixth seed Pere Riba progressed to his second ATP main draw of the year after upsetting Russian third seed Konstantin Kravchuk in the final round 6-3, 6-4. Throughout the three-match draw, the Spaniard didn’t drop a set. In the two earlier rounds, he defeated Alexey Vatutin and Mikhail Ledovskikh. Last month Riba reached his first tournament final this year at the ATP Sibiu Challenger in Romania where he lost to Adrian Ungur.
The only successful result for the home nation was fourth seed Aslan Karatsev. During the early stage of the draw he defeated fellow countrymen Vladimir Polyakov and Fedor Chervyakov. His final match was against another yet another Russian player, world No. 336 Mikhail Elgin. The 34-year-old defeated Bosnian eighth seed Aldin Setkic, 7-6 (3), 6-3, to reach the final round. After a slow start to the match, where he trailed 1-3, Karatsev regained his focus to ease to a 6-4, 6-3, win over Elgin to move to his first ATP main draw for two years.
First Round Matches
Dusan Lajovic SRB – Robin Haase NED (Lajovic leads the H2H 1-0 after beating Hasse in a 2013 Italian Challenger).
Pere Riba ESP – Pablo Cuevas URU (Cuevas leads 4-0, however, they havn’t played each other since 2011).
Aslan Karatsev RUS – Mikhail Youzhny RUS (Youzhny leads 1-0 , St. Perersburg 2013)
Tatsuma Ito JPA – Marsel Ilhan TUR – first meeting
2015 ATP Vienna, Stockholm, and Moscow Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A trio of European indoor hard court tournaments take place this week on the ATP tour as the season enters its final weeks.
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 500
Vienna, Austria
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €1,745,040
8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Kevin Anderson (10)
3: John Isner (13)
4: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (15)
5: Dominic Thiem (18)
6: Gael Monfils (19)
7: Ivo Karlovic (21)
8: Fabio Fognini (26)
Two top 10, and six top 20 players are in Vienna for its first edition as a 500 level tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)David Ferrer vs. Albert Ramos
Ferrer has a 4-0 h2h record against his countryman and should be a solid favorite after posting a 7-2 record over his last 9 matches. Ramos is in great form though, he qualified in Shanghai and shocked Roger Federer for the biggest win of his career, going on to push eventual finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three sets in the round of 16. Ferrer is a better player, and far better indoors, but Ramos may be able to notch another top 10 win in this one if Ferrer plays as poorly as he did in Shanghai.
(8)Fabio Fognini vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Fognini leads the h2h 2-1 with Mathieu but they haven’t played since 2009. The French veteran isn’t a clutch player but he has a solid ballstriking game indoors and could trouble Fognini if the Italian loses his cool. Fabio reached the semis in Beijing and his form has been good since the US Open though, so I have him avoiding the upset and winning this one.
Janowicz has a h2h win over Thiem and recently reached a challenger final on indoor hard. JJ has a great game for this venue, though he’s struggled to maintain ATP level tennis this season, and Thiem faces the pressure of being the home favorite. Both player are about equal in talent level, but Thiem’s consistency should help him prevail.
The defending finalist David Ferrer should draw another Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, in the second round after facing Ramos. GGL has lost three straight matches, and his round 1 opponent Santiago Giraldo is struggling mightily as well. Though GGL is good indoors, Ferrer leads the h2h 7-1 and he should reach the quarterfinals.
Fabio Fognini should be able to reach the quarterfinals as well, as he’ll face either Austrian journeyman Dennis Novak or Radek Stepanek in round 2, after his match with PHM. Stepanek hasn’t played well in quite some time and I don’t expect him to challenge Fognini. Ferrer leads the h2h with Fognini 8-0 and with the World Tour Finals on the line, look for Ferrer to make the semifinals in Austria.
Shanghai finalist, and former Vienna champion, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may be exhausted from his exploits at the Masters level but his round 1 opponent Tommy Haas, a loser of four straight matches, isn’t likely to defeat him. After Haas I also give Lukas Rosol or qualifier Yuichi Sugita a limited chance to upset Tsonga. Rosol has a big enough game to pull it off, but Tsonga is an excellent indoors player and the Czech has been out of tune for some time.
Gael Monfils is the biggest threat to Tsonga reaching the semifinals, The high flying Frenchman will look to extend his h2h over a struggling Thomaz Bellucci to 3-0 in his first match since the US Open. Monfils has struggled to stay healthy, but Bellucci, and likely Rajeev Ram in round 2 are both opponents he should be favored against. Ram opens with dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 1.
Monfils beat Tsonga in Miami this year, but Tsonga has an edge in the overall h2h, and I look for Jo to bite him back if they meet in the quarterfinals. Fatigue is a factor, but so is rust with Monfils.
Bottom Half:
Kevin Anderson should cruise to the quarterfinals past Austria’s Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Jiri Vesely, presuming Vesely beats Austrian wild card Gerald Melzer in round 1. Vesely reached the quarterfinals in Shenzen and he’s a streaky player. The h2h between Kev and Jiri is 1-1, with Vesely beating him early this season in Auckland. Indoors with Anderson’s serve the result should swing to his favor. Anderson comes off the quarterfinals in Shanghai and solid wins over Fognini and Kei Nishikori.
I look for Dominic Thiem to beat Janowicz and then the winner of Alex Dolgopolov/Steve Johnson to reach the quarterfinals in front of the home fans. Dolgo has lost five straight matches, but he was solid enough in Shanghai and he has a higher peak than Johnson who won a round in Shanghai and went out in round 2. Thiem and Dolgo is a tough matchup, but consistency and venue should give Thiem the advantage.
Anderson is 3-0 in the h2h against Thiem and beat him at the US Open this year, it could be close, but big Kev should gain some ranking points and reach the semis.
The final semifinal spot should come down to a battle of big servers in the quarterfinals. Ivo Karlovic faces the all-courter Andreas Seppi in round 1 and he should be able to find consistency and serve past him, and Jan-Lennard Struff or Sergiy Stakhovsky in his first two matches. Struff qualified and has two challenger titles and a semifinal as of late, so his form has been excellent at a lower level. JL has always been a good challenger tour player but hasn’t quite made the jump to ATP tennis on a regular basis, the Karlovic serve should prove to be too much.
Look for John Isner to join Karlovic in the quarters by ousting the in-form Kenny De Schepper and then the struggling Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis should get his first match win in months by defeating ATP main draw débutante Lucas Miedler, a 19 year old Austrian who hasn’t even reached the challenger tour level yet, but came through qualifying.
Isner is 7-3 in his last 10 matches, and those three losses all came at the hands of top 10 players. The match with Karlovic should come down to just a few points, but I give him the edge to reach the semis.
Struff is just 4-17 at the main tour level this year but he’s 16-2 since the US Open and in fantastic form at the Challenger Tour level. JL reached the quarterfinals in Vienna last year and posted two ATP semifinals indoors as well (Marseille and Metz). He’s got all the shotmaking ability needed to excel, but his mental game is rather weak. Should Ivo Karlovic and Isner slip up, Struff could find his way to the semifinals of an ATP tournament for the third time in his career.
Predictions
semis Ferrer d. Tsonga
Isner d. Anderson
Ferrer leads the h2h with Tsonga 3-1 and should be fresher than his rival in this semifinal. Ferru already took the title indoors in Kuala Lumpur, and he should reach another final this Fall in Vienna, reprising his result last year.
Isner tends to have the matchup edge with Anderson and his form has been good.
final Ferrer d. Isner
Ferrer is 5-1 in the h2h against Isner and should be highly motivated to capture another ATP title.
ATP Stockholm
IF Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
Stockholm, Sweden
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €537,050
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Richard Gasquet (11)
3: Gilles Simon (14)
4: Bernard Tomic (20)
Stockholm boasts a quality field for an ATP 250 tournament with four top 20 names.
First round matchups to watch:
Benjamin Becker vs. John Millman
Becker has caught fire this Fall on indoor hard, the offensive baseliner reached the final of the Mons challenger and the semifinals in Kuala Lumpur for an overall 9-3 record since the US Open. Previously in a cold slump, he’s back playing crafty tennis and could be a threat in Stockholm. John Millman qualified for Beijing and upset Tommy Robredo, the Australian has the talent to be an ATP level player but he’s still seeking a breakthrough, and winning this match would help. Look for Becker to advance and maintain his hot streak.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Denis Kudla
Fernando Verdasco has lost three straight and could be in for an upset defeat at the hands of the dynamic ball striker Denis Kudla. Kudla went 7-2 on the USTA Pro Circuit after the US Open and is now returning to the ATP main draw level in Stockholm. It’s been a career year for Kudla, and look for him to add to that with a win over the declining Verdasco.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
The talented young gun Kokkinakis is seeking his 12th ATP tour level win this season and could break out of a cold slump with a win over Chardy, a big hitter who is capable of playing well indoors. Chardy lost to Kokkinakis on grass earlier this season and has lost two straight matches himself. I have Kokkinakis pulling off the upset.
The defending and two-time Stockholm champion Tomas Berdych will open with the Alex Zverev/Mikael Ymer winner. Ymer is the younger brother of the better known Elias Ymer and gets a main draw wild card. His ATP debut will take place against a fellow young gun who is seeking to snap a four match losing streak. Zverev should fall to the Shenzen champion and Shanghai quarterfinalist Berdych in round 2.
Look for Berdych to face another former Stockholm champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarterfinals. A struggling Dimitrov opens with a qualifier, and then is likely to face the retiring Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen gets a wild card and is ending his ATP career in Stockholm after a solid career as Finland’s #1 tennis player. The speedy defensively minded veteran opens with Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, who has been on fire on the clay court challenger tour. Nemo has lost four straight, and Dimitrov is far better at this point in their careers.
Berdych beat Dimitrov in the Stockholm final last year and given Dimitrov’s poor form this season the Czech has the edge to reach the semifinals.
Shanghai quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic will open with either Sam Querrey or Marcos Baghdatis. Querrey leads the h2h 3-0 over Baghdatis, and Tomic should have the edge in his section to reach another ATP quarterfinal. Trouble should await at that stage though, as Becker/Millman or Gilles Muller/qualifier are the options. Muller has an ATP quarterfinal and a semifinal this Fall and is a solid indoor player, as is Becker. The pair of veterans have met just once before and Becker came out on top. I have that result repeating itself and a Tomic vs. Becker quarterfinal, in which Tomic should have the edge.
Bottom Half:
Richard Gasquet should cruise through his section of the draw and power his way to the semifinals. Neither Steve Darcis, or a struggling Adrian Mannarino, look to be threatening in his first match and he’ll have a decided edge over the Chardy/Kokkinakis winner in the quarters. The other option in this section is the winner of Federico Delbonis/qualifier, and Delbonis much prefers clay.
Gilles Simon could make it an all-French semifinal against Gasquet if he can beat Leo Mayer/qualifier and likely the winner of Jack Sock vs. Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Sock faces dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta first up, and then the Verdasco/Kudla winner. On Simon’s end, Mayer is struggling, and Kudla beat Sock the last time they played. Simon is 7-3 in his last 10 matches and should beat Kudla in the quarters.
Either Becker or Gilles Muller could get through to the semifinals over Tomic and possibly give Berdych/Dimitrov problems as well in the semifinals. Becker, even at his age, still has a quality serve and plays smart, aggressive tennis indoors. His back injury seems to have sorted itself out and he’s back cranking on the ball from both wings.
Predictions
semis Berdych d. Tomic
Gasquet d. Simon
Berdych is 4-0 in the h2h against Tomic and has beaten him twice this season. Given his good record in Stockholm, he should prevail once more. Gasquet is 6-1 in the h2h against Simon and won a pair of matches in Shanghai to show form.
final Berdych d. Gasquet
Berdych is 2-1 against Gasquet this year, and was 1-1 against him last season. It’s a close h2h and a difficult match to predict, but Berdych’s better form gives him the advantage.
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: $698,325
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (12)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
3: Viktor Troicki (24)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (31)
With just one top 20 player, Moscow has the weakest field of the tournaments this week.
Kukushkin has had success in Moscow before and he posted a quarterfinal in Kuala Lumpur. Rublev by contrast has lost three straight, but the teenager is the great white hope for Russian men’s tennis and will have all eyes on him at a home tournament. Rublev is plenty talented, but with his recent run of poor form, I have Kukushkin winning this match and schooling the youngster.
Simone Bolelli vs. Lucas Pouille
Bolelli leads the h2h against the young gun Pouille 3-0 and he’s 8-4 since the US Open. Pouille by contrast has lost three straight matches since reaching the quarterfinals in St. Petersburg. Pouille has a great forehand and the ability to notch a win in this one, but a wiser Bolelli should defeat him.
Top Half:
Defending champion Marin Cilic should blaze through to the semifinals. Cilic opens with the winner of Aljaz Bedene/Denis Istomin, and then should face Rublev/Kukushkin in the quarters, as Radu Albot/Andrey Kuznetsov is the only player that stands in their way. Istomin just won a challenger title and should beat Bedene, but Cilic is 6-3 since the US Open and should move that to 8-3 with wins over Istomin and Kukushkin. He’s by far the best player in his section and just beat Kukushkin at the US Open.
Former champion Viktor Troicki is just 2-3 since the US Open, but wild card Cem Ilkel, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili are unlikely to oust him in the opening round. Gabashvili is a streaky player with talent, but like Troicki he seems to have lost his way right now. I have Troicki going out to Borna Coric in the quarterfinals, after Coric defeats Evgeny Donskoy and Ricardas Berankis (Berankis opens with Malek Jaziri). Coric has the most talent in this section and has been battling at the ATP level while Donkoy, Berankis, and Jaziri have all been on the challenger tour (and done well at that level). Berankis is a potential dark horse in this section if his solid ball striking pays off.
Bottom Half:
St. Petersburg semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut plays well in Russia, and he should use his forehand to once more excel indoors and defeat Marsel Ilhan/qualifier, and then setup a meeting with either Joao Sousa or the Bolelli/Pouille winner in the quarters. Sousa is one of the better indoor specialists in the game and after Daniel Gimeno-Traver he’ll face Bolelli/Pouille. I have the St. Petersburg finalist Sousa snapping a losing streak and beating Bolelli (who he beat in St. Petersburg), and Bautista Agut for a spot in the semifinals. His game is well suited for this venue.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with Mikhail Youzhny/qualifier. Youzhny is a horrific 9-23 at the ATP level this year while Kohlschreiber was a semifinalist in Metz and should at least make a quarterfinal in this one. A qualifier has a fantastic chance to make the quarterfinals opposite Kohli. Pablo Cuevas opens with a qualifier, as does Robin Haase, and they both prefer a surface other than indoor hard. I have the qualifiers winning those round 1 matches, and then Kohlschreiber beating a qualifier for a spot in the semis.
Berankis has the talented needed to get through Coric and his weak early section, and then give Cilic a test in the semifinals. The former top junior is undersized for the ATP game but he’s a solid ball striker, and still has a lot of intangible talent, even though his pro career has been a disappointment thus far.
Predictions
semis Cilic d. Coric
Kohlschreiber d. Sousa
Cilic and Kohlschreiber should be strong favorites to meet each other in the final.
final Cilic d. Kohlschreiber
Kohli leads the h2h with Cilic 5-3, but I feel Cilic is the better player right now and will find a way to win and repeat as champion.
2014 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews, Picks Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
With just three weeks left in the ATP World Tour Season, the race is on for the final World Tour Final spots, while most other players on tour are seeking to boost their year-end ranking by earning some late season ranking spots. There are three 250 level indoor hard court events in Europe this week and here is a preview of each one.
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (7)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (10)
3: Kevin Anderson (16)
4: Alex Dolgopolov (24)
Stockholm attracts three top 20 players and it’s a solid field for a 250 level event.
Berdych and Dimitrov are in contention for the World Tour Finals.
First Round matchups to watch:
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Adrian Mannarino
Baghdatis had sustained periods of strong play this summer but he has not been healthy since the US Open, and he is looking to take his aggressive game indoors and enjoy success in Stockholm. He starts with the versatile Frenchman Mannarino, who has done very well at the challenger level on hard courts, but has struggled translating that success to the ATP level this year. This is a challenger-level round 1 matchup, and I think Mannarino will sneak through. The two veterans have never met before in a tournament match.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
The veteran Frenchman Chardy will take on the 18-year-old Swede Ymer, who gets a wildcard in a home event for him. Ymer is the most promising young Swede and he played reasonably well recently in a trio of USTA Pro Circuit Events. He scored two wins, and pushed the American trio of Sam Querrey, Denis Kudla, and Rhyne Williams to three sets in each tournament. Chardy should prevail, but it’s possible Ymer could earn his second career ATP main draw win this week.
Top Half:
Former Stockholm Champion Tomas Berdych opens with a qualifier or Swedish wild card Christian Lindell. Berdych went 6-2 on the Asian swing, and appears to be playing well at the moment with his only losses to Djokovic and the in-form Gilles Simon. Look for him to ease his way into the semifinals, after defeating Joao Sousa, the number 8 seed, in the quarterfinals. Sousa has lost two straight matches but he is known to play well on indoor hard, including Metz recently where he made the final, and his competition en route to the quarters, a qualifier, and Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier, is far from imposing.
Alex Dologopolov gets a bye, but he is 0-2 since returning to the ATP tour from a knee injury, and he could suffer a loss to the Baghdatis/Mannarino winner. Dolgo showed major improvement between his Tokyo and Shanghai losses though, and I think he has just enough game to reach the quarterfinals, given Baggy and Mannarino are both erratic. That said, Donald Young or Igor Sijsling have great shots at making the semifinals this week. Young opens with 5 seed Leo Mayer, who is far more comfortable on clay (though he nearly beat Roger Federer in Shanghai), and Sijsling opens with a qualifier. That said, both Young and Sijsling are also struggling: Sijsling has been far from impressive indoors on the challenger circuit in Europe, and Young lost to journeyman Malek Jaziri in Shanghai. Given Sijsling’s previous successes on indoor hard, I have him beating a qualifier, Young and then Dolgopolov (or even Baghdatis/Mannarino) to reach the semifinals in what is a toss-up section.
Bottom Half:
Defending champion Grigor Dimitrov opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili or Alejandro Falla. Neither of those players are playing good tennis at the moment and Dimitrov should set up a quarterfinal meeting with Chardy/Ymer or Jack Sock/Andrey Golubev. Sock just beat Golubev in Tokyo, and he has another great chance at a strong week, after winning consecutive matches in both Tokyo, where he beat Dolgopolov, and Shanghai, where he upset Kei Nishikori. Dimitrov, who is a year older than Sock, has never played him before, and I think Sock will put up a competitive showing, but I have Grisha into the semifinals yet again. He lost in the second round of Shanghai after making the quarters in Beijing.
Kevin Anderson is set to face Bernard Tomic in round 2. Tomic plays Swedish wild card Patrik Rosenholm in round 1. Tomic has beaten Anderson twice on hard courts, both times in 3 sets: once in 2013 in Sydney, and the other time in Shanghai in 2011. Tomic qualified in Shanghai, and Anderson went just 2-2 on the Asian swing, with losses to Chardy and Mikhail Kukushkin. Anderson has been more successful indoors than Tomic, but not by a lot, which is surprising given Anderson is a lanky big server. I have Tomic sneaking through to the quarterfinals in my bracket. At that stage he could face 7 seed Fernando Verdasco, Marinko Matosevic, Albert Ramos, or most likely, in my estimation, Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen has always been a top performer indoors and he reached the semis in Kuala Lumpur. He also has beaten Verdasco before on hard courts, twice in fact, once in 2005, and once in 2013. Verdasco won a 3 setter in Stockholm last year, and once more indoors in Rotterdam in 2008, but I’m not very convinced by his form right now. He is just 2-3 in his last five matches, though two of those losses are to Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic. He still seems a bit lost at the moment.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
I have the unseeded Igor Sijsling in the semis this week and the unseeded Tomic in the quarters, but neither of them really have the potential to make the final, in my estimation. Nieminen, on the other hand, should reach the semis, assuming he can upset Verdasco, and Verdasco may even lose to Matosevic in round 1. Nieminen-Tomic or Nieminen-Anderson would also be a tough contest, but Jarkko should get his upset shot against Dimitrov in the semis. He is 2-0 career against the Bulgarian, with both of his wins coming indoors. Dimitrov is much improved since those matches were played, but the h2h still is what it is.
Predictions
Semis:
Berdych d. Sijsling
Dimitrov d. Nieminen
Berdych should cruise to the final, barely facing any competition, given the weak top half of the draw. He crushed Sijsling in Davis Cup earlier this year, and the result should be the same no matter who he faces in the semis.
I have Dimitrov beating Nieminen since he’s a superior talent at this point, and he cares about retaining the Stockholm crown.
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
Dimitrov and Berdych have split h2h meetings this year, both times on clay, and Dimitrov was 2-0 before that, but both of those hard court meetings went to a decisive third set. After watching them both in the Asian swing, I think everyone would agree Berdych is playing superior tennis right now, and that should be enough to win him his second Stockholm title.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Berdych d. Dolgopolov
Dimitrov d. Tomic
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (5)
2: Andy Murray (11)
3: Feliciano Lopez (21)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
Murray and Ferrer are fighting to make the World Tour Finals and they highlight the field in Vienna, which is balanced otherwise.
First Round matchups to watch:
Carlos Berlocq vs. (WC)Gerald Melzer
Berlocq is the far more accomplished player, but he’s very poor on indoor hard, and the younger Melzer won a couple of matches at the Mons challenger on indoor hard. The wild card is looking for his first career ATP main draw victory yet again and he should be motivated. Berlocq is likely to advance, but he is coming off playing clay court challengers, and this one has some upset potential.
Martin Klizan vs. Benjamin Becker
Two in-form players will do battle in a match that I am really looking forward to. Klizan is 8-3 over his last 11 matches, and he made round 2 in Shanghai after reaching the semis in Beijing. He lost to David Ferrer in a competitive 3 set battle in Shanghai that he very much should have won. Becker reached the semis in Tokyo after reaching the quarters in Kuala Lumpur and he pushed Kei Nishikori to 3 sets in Tokyo, very nearly pulling off a massive upset. With both players playing some of their best tennis all year right now, and given they both have aggressive playstyles, this one should be full of highlights. It’s very hard to predict and both are solid indoors, but I have Klizan sneaking through in 3 sets because I feel his game at a peak level is better than what Becker brings to the table.
Thomaz Bellucci vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Bellucci just beat Mathieu in the Orleans Challenger semifinals a couple of weeks ago, which was surprisingly their first head to head meeting, though they have both played on tour for a while. Bellucci is on a two match losing streak, while Mathieu lost in round 2 of the Rennes challenger, and they have both been playing indoor hard courts at the challenger level in Europe, rather than going to Asia for ATP competition this Fall. Given PHM has nominally been superior on indoor hard over the course of his career, I have him through to round 2 but it could go either way.
Top Half:
David Ferrer will need to be on upset alert for his first contest against either Simone Bolelli or Tobias Kamke. Both are competent on indoor hard and Ferrer is just 2-4 in his last six matches. He did manage to win consecutive matches in Shanghai, including a 3 set win over Andy Murray, and he’s fighting to make the World Tour Finals, thus I do have him through to the quarters after a test from Bolelli. Bolelli has a 2-0 h2h against Kamke and more peak potential than the journeyman German who has been plying his trade at the indoor hard court tournaments in Europe this fall. Look for a Ferrer vs. Ivo Karlovic quarterfinal. The big serving Croat made the third round in Shanghai, upsetting Marin Cilic en route, and he broke a poor run of form he was having for quite some time. His first opponent is Federico Delbonis, and then a qualifier or Jurgen Melzer, the home favorite, is to follow. Melzer is a two-time champion in Vienna, and he’s a career 5-1 against Karlovic, but he’s been struggling all year and he’s ranked outside the top 100. Though he played alright in Tokyo, his form has to be suspect right now, and that’s why I have Karlovic beating him. Ferrer is 2-1 against Karlovic, and I feel he’s motivated enough to the reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with the Gerald Melzer/Berlocq winner. Kohli is struggling, and he suffered a shoulder injury in Metz from which he may not have fully recovered. However, barring a big upset, Kohli should reach the quarterfinals before falling to Klizan. Other potential quarterfinal opponents are Becker and local hope Dominic Thiem. Thiem opens with the pedestrian Robin Haase and then will face the Becker/Klizan winner. Of course, that should be a great match, and I feel form favors Klizan, or Becker, to reach the quarterfinals, though Thiem made round 2 in Shanghai and is far from a pushover. I have Klizan over Kohlschreiber given the form factor at the moment.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray will open with Vasek Pospisil or a qualifier and he very well could fall to the Canadian, who played reasonably well in Asia without any deep runs to show for it. Murray is 9-2 since the US Open though, and he has not lost to a non-top 20 player since the grass court season. In fact, he has just three losses to a player ranked outside the top 20 in 2014, which has not been one of his best seasons by any measure.
Look for Murray to cruise into the semis if he can get past Vashy. His quarterfinal opponent, one of JL Struff/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Sergiy Stakhovsky/qualifier is far from imposing and he should not have any trouble. Stako is playing well at the moment: he won the Orleans challenger on indoor hard and fell in the finals of the Tashkent challenger on hard courts last week. However, he is 0-3 career against Struff, with all those matches taking place this year or last, and the German should be fresher for this tournament. Struff was a semifinalist in Metz and should have a good week.
Shanghai semifinalist Feliciano Lopez will look to make a quick turnaround and continue his fine play in Vienna. The Spaniard will open with the Mathieu/Bellucci winner and unless he’s worn out he should setup a meeting with Lukas Rosol in the quarters. Rosol opens with Tashkent champion Lukas Lacko, who should be tired, and then Victor Estrella or a qualifier. Rosol has lost six straight matches, but he actually has a rather easy path to the quarters. Mathieu/Bellucci will have an outside shot at making a run this week, but signs point to Lopez making the semis in this rather weak section.
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan can play some great tennis when his game is clicking, through his path of Becker, Thiem/Haase and Kohlschreiber, before a likely meeting with Ferrer. Ferrer in the semis is far from easy, but he’s talented enough to survive the gauntlet. He nearly beat Ferrer in Shanghai, but he couldn’t put the match away, and I don’t think he will beat Ferrer this time either, but I’m sure he’s hungry for revenge.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Klizan
Murray d. Lopez
Ferrer just survived a battle with Klizan in Shanghai, and Murray has never lost to Lopez in nine career meetings, including two this season.
Final:
Murray d. Ferrer
Ferrer did just beat Murray in Shanghai, but I chalk that 3 set loss up to fatigue more than anything else, and the Scot should be motivated to take this title. It could be a close match, but I’m going with Murray as champion this week.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Ferrer d. Thiem
Pospisil d. Lacko
Final:
Ferrer d. Pospisil
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: $776,620
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (8)
2: Marin Cilic (9)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Fabio Fognini (17)
Cilic and Raonic are both in contention to make the World Tour Finals and like the other two tournaments this week, it is a balanced field in Moscow.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Andreas Seppi vs. Dusan Lajovic
The rising Serb Lajovic will have a nice upset chance against Seppi, who is a former champion in Moscow. Seppi has not had the best of seasons and he hasn’t played great on indoor hard at the ATP level the past two seasons. Seppi has a h2h win on clay and Lajovic has yet to have sustained success indoors, but I do see this match going 3 sets. I have Seppi getting through in my bracket but the upset possibility is there.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (WC)Karen Khachanov
The 18 year old Khachanov made a run to the quarterfinals last year in Moscow and now he has some major points to defend against Kukushkin. Kukushkin played well in Asia, going 4-2 overall, with wins over Kevin Anderson and Tommy Robredo in Shanghai, before narrowly losing to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets. Khachanov, who has yet to really break through and find the consistency he needs to compete with the top players, comes off qualifying for the Rennes challenger, where he lost in round 2. Kukushkin could win this comfortably but Khachanov will have home support, and it should at least be an enjoyable match.
Top Half:
Milos Raonic opens with a qualifier, then most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters. RBA has Andrey Kuznetsov, a home favorite, up first, then Sam Groth or wild card Andrey Rublev in his path. Rublev is currently the world number 1 junior player, and at 16, he’s making his ATP main draw debut at a home tournament in Moscow. Groth has a big serve but little else going for him, and Rublev will at least have a chance at getting his maiden ATP win. RBA comes off the third round in Shanghai and he has never played Raonic before. Raonic retired most likely due to fatigue, or perhaps the flu, in round 1 in Shanghai, but he should be fresh and fit here in Moscow. Given it’s an indoor hard court tournament, Raonic should cruise to the semis if healthy.
Ernests Gulbis is struggling: the Latvian appears to be carrying a shoulder injury and I’m honestly not sure why he’s playing Moscow nor why he played in Shanghai last week. He’s visibly injured and it’s affecting his game. He should fall to Jiri Vesely, who opens with dirtballer Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in round 2. Vesely has made two consecutive indoor hard court semifinals in Orleans and Mons, and he’s playing well right now. It should be a Vesely vs. Seppi/Lajovic or Ivan Dodig quarterfinal. Dirtballer Pere Riba is also in this section, the first opponent for Dodig. Dodig reversed a previously 0-4 h2h against Seppi across surfaces and beat him in Toronto in 3 sets this year, thus their match in Moscow is an unpredictable affair, should it occur. I have Dodig through to face Vesely, but I am not entirely confident.
Bottom Half:
Marin Cilic will open with Dudi Sela or Evgeny Donskoy. Sela is 2-0 against the underachieving Russian, so he should get through to round 2. Look for Cilic to face Tommy Robredo in the quarterfinals. Robredo will face Malek Jaziri or Filip Krajinovic in round 2 before Cilic. Robredo and Cilic have both lost two straight matches after previously playing well, but the h2h does favor Cilic who is 2-1 on hard courts and 2-1 against the Spaniard this season. Given the indoor hard court surface, it should be Cilic in the semis.
Fabio Fognini lost to a Chinese wild card in Shanghai and he really appears to be off the rails right now. I have him losing to Kukushkin in round 2, and his lack of focus and effort is shining through at the moment. Look for a Kukushkin vs. Mikhail Youzhny quarterfinal, assuming the former Moscow champ can get past a qualifier, and Juan Monaco/Paolo Lorenzi. Youzhny just beat Monaco en route to the Shanghai quarterfinals, perhaps his best result all season, a year in which he has fallen from the top 30 and struggled with consistency. Kukushkin and Youzhny have split indoor hard court meetings on Russian soil and they both had good runs in Shanghai. It’s a hard to predict matchup, given how poor Youzhny has been this season by and large, but he is playing at a tournament he normally does well at so look for the Colonel to advance.
Dark Horse: Jiri Vesely
Kukushkin will also have a chance to do well this week, but Vesely should make the semis with wins over DGT, an injured Gulbis, and Seppi/Dodig/Lajovic. Vesely vs. Seppi and Vesely vs. Dodig would be hard to predict, but the young Czech has a game built to do well on indoor hard and I feel he’s motivated and in the right sort of form to do well.
Predictions
Semis:
Raonic d. Vesely
Cilic d. Youzhny
Unless something is wrong with Raonic, he should make the final this week comfortably enough. He crushed Vesely on clay, his weakest surface, at the French Open this year and he’s motivated to make the World Tour Final.
Cilic has won the last 3 meetings with Youzhny, and 4 of the last 5, after the Russian started with a strong h2h advantage. This includes their last three indoor meetings, two of which went to a decisive third set, and though Cilic has lost two straight, he should recover and reach the final, given Youzhny has been poor most of the season.
Final:
Raonic d. Cilic
Raonic and Cilic have a 1-1 hard court h2h and Cilic won indoors in Valencia in 2011. Both guys have had excellent seasons, and Cilic has perhaps had the higher peak given he won the US Open, while Raonic has just been a very consistent top 10 player in a variety of tournaments and across surfaces. He plays some of his best tennis indoors and that should be enough to give him the edge.
2013 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The European indoor season starts with a trio of 250 events. Just a few weeks remain in the ATP World Tour season for 2013.
Enjoy it while it lasts!
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
Stockholm, Sweden
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: € 530,165
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: David Ferrer
2: Milos Raonic
3: Jerzy Janowicz
4: Kevin Anderson
The strongest tournament field this week has four top 20 players.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Ivan Dodig vs. Fernando Verdasco
Dodig beat Verdasco in a thrilling 5 setter at the US Open and they will meet again in the first round of Stockholm. Both are in up-and-down form, as Dodig comes off a first round loss in Shanghai, but had a good Asian swing result in Tokyo where he made the semis. Verdasco has 2 consecutive second round losses, but they are losses to top players Novak Djokovic and Milos Raonic. He took a set off of them. A natural toss-up.
Jurgen Zopp vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
A battle between a player on the comeback trail and a player who has worked his way up the rankings but is still adjusting to ATP competition. Jurgen Zopp of Estonia is taking advantage of a protected ranking to enter the field here. After injuries his ranking is outside the top 300, but he is climbing up the rankings and his career high is 71 last year. Now 25, the Estonian has good indoor results at challengers, reaching the semis at the Petange challenger and qualifying at the Rennes challenger this past week. PCB, meanwhile, lost in the second round of Kuala Lumpur and the first round of Beijing after leaving clay for ATP events. If PCB can find his feet on indoor hard courts, he is the better player, but for now, I think Zopp will pull the slight upset.
Stockholm Center Court
Top Half
A struggling David Ferrer went a pedestrian 4-3 on the Asian swing with losses to second tier players Joao Sousa and Florian Mayer on his record. Ferrer will try to get things in order, opening with Jack Sock/Bernard Tomic in round 2, and one of Verdasco/Dodig, Jarkko Nieminen/Benjamin Becker in the quarters. That match could be tough and this is a somewhat difficult section.
Jerzy Janowicz returns to tennis for the first time this fall, and his form is up in the air as he opens with a qualifier or dangerous indoor St. Petersburg finalist Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. JJ has the game for indoor play, as we saw in Paris last year, but so does GGL and that could be a cracking second round match. The quarterfinalist from this section will most likely face St. Petersburg champion Ernests Gulbis, who opens with Jeremy Chardy and has Igor Sijsing/Tobias Kamke waiting in round 2.
Bottom Half
Milos Raonic is bidding to qualify for the World Tour Finals, which is why he took a wild card to play here. He opens with a qualifier or Alejandro Falla in round 2. Assuming he gets past that, he has a very nice draw as his quarterfinal opponent will be one of Benoit Paire/Santiago Giraldo, or Zopp/Carreno Busta. I see no reason why he shouldn’t cruise to at least the semis if healthy. Paire, the most likely quarterfinalist, is incredibly unpredictable…
Kevin Anderson has a heavy, serve-centric game that is good for indoor play, but he is in pedestrian form as well, going 1-2 on the Asian swing. He opens with current indoor challenger finalist Kenny De Schepper or Swedish wild card Markus Eriksson and he has a very weak draw. His quarterfinal opponent will be one of Grigor Dimitrov/JL Struff or one of 2 qualifiers. The bottom half of the draw is far weaker than the top.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
In a jumbled top quarter of the draw, Nieminen has a history of good indoor results and could reach the semis as an unseeded player. After facing Benjamin Becker, he will perhaps get his toughest test against Verdasco/Dodig, both of whom could be semifinalists, and then he probably faces a struggling Ferrer in the quarters.
If he can win all that, he is in the semis, but it is hard to say who gets out of that quarter.
Predictions
Semis
Gulbis d. Dodig
Raonic d. Anderson
I think Gulbis is in good form, good indoors, and will upset Janowicz, who may be rusty. He should also beat anyone who gets out of the top quarter, be it Dodig/Nieminen/Verdasco/Ferrer, to reach the final.
Raonic should cruise to the final with the weak bottom section not proving to be much of a challenge. Raonic beat Anderson indoors last year.
Gulbis is 0-2 against Dodig but that shouldn’t mean much.
Final
Raonic d. Gulbis
Raonic has everything to play for, while Gulbis is in good form. This could be a great final. Another reason to pick Raonic is his domination of the h2h, holding a 4-0 record including 2 wins this year and a win indoors last year. Gulbis has only taken one set off the Canadian in those four matches.
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: € 501,355
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2: Tommy Haas
3: Fabio Fognini
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Vasek Pospisil vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Pospisil is seeded here, but he gets one of the toughest first round opponents at the tournament, the always dogged Lleyton Hewitt. Rusty routined him in Newport on grass this year. Pospisil will have a better chance indoors and he just upset Richard Gasquet in Shanghai before losing to Gael Monfils in a close 2 sets. Hewitt is struggling a little, 1-2 on the Asian swing and coming off a blowout loss to Andreas Seppi. I think Vashy will notch the win here.
Top Half
Shanghai semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Daniel Brands or Andreas Haider-Maurer. If he is healthy and not fatigued, he should get Gael Monfils in the quarters after just beating him in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago. Monfils has to beat Marinko Matosevic, and Daniel Gimeno-Traver/Dominic Thiem to reach that point. Monfils comes off quarters in Shanghai.
A somewhat in form Fabio Fognini, who went 4-2 on the Asian swing, will probably face surprise Shanghai quarterfinalist Florian Mayer, if Flo beats Lukasz Kubot. Mayer-Fognini could be an interesting match. Hewitt/Pospisil, Robin Haase or a qualifier await in the quarters.
Bottom Half
A struggling Tommy Haas, who withdrew after a pair of wins in Shanghai and lost in the first round of Beijing, will face Pablo Andujar or a qualifier in round 2. Haas has a very easy draw section with Lukas Lacko being a likely quarterfinal opponent. The inconsistent Lacko needs wins over Austrian wildcard Gerald Melzer and Radek Stepanek/Martin Fischer. Stepanek has had some good challenger results, but not sure if he can make a deep run again in ATP singles.
Philipp Kohlschreiber has suffered a pair of tough second round losses on the Asian swing to elite players Nadal and Del Potro, and I’m sure he will be pleased to get a qualifier or Jan Hajek in round 2 instead as he starts off in Vienna. Peppo will face one of Lukas Rosol/Michael Russell/qualifier/Jesse Huta Galung in the quarters in what is a very easy draw for him as well.
Dark Horse: Radek Stepanek
Stepanek rolled through a pair of indoor challengers recently and his ranking is back inside the top 40. With a weak draw opening with Martin Fischer and Lacko/Melzer (the younger), then probably a struggling Haas in the quarters, Stepanek has a very nice look at the semis here and could even reach the final.
Predictions
Semis
Tsonga d. Pospisil
Stepanek d. Kohlschreiber
Tsonga or Monfils should be the finalist out of the top half.
Pospisil may eke his way to the semis. Stepanek has beaten Kohlschreiber 7 times since 2000, including a win on grass this year.
Final
Tsonga d. Stepanek
Stepanek will be a surprise enough to make the final, but Tsonga is top tier and should grab this title.
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: $746,750
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Richard Gasquet
2: Andreas Seppi
3: Janko Tipsarevic
4: Alex Dolgopolov
First round matchups to watch
(7)Joao Sousa vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Sousa is an amazing 8-1 indoors this fall, with semis in St. Petersburg and the Kuala Lumpur title on his resume. Stako lost to Sousa in St. Petersburg and has been journeying his way through a mix of ATP and challengers this fall with limited success. Sousa will be the favorite, but he has a lot of pressure on him to live up to the hype.
Jiri Vesely vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Vesely retired in the third round of his last event, the Orleans challenger, but overall the youngster is on the rise and he has an interesting first round test against Roger-Vasselin. ERV qualified in Tokyo and won a round and he maintains a pretty good record indoors. This match could go either way and should be close.
Top Half
Richard Gasquet makes his Moscow debut after a first round loss in Shanghai. Marcos Baghdatis or Evgeny Donskoy will serve as his first opponent, and assuming he wins he will face one of Dudi Sela/qualifier/Teymuraz Gabashvili/Adrian Mannarino in the quarters. This is a super-weak, challenger-level section. Gasquet should cruise, but keep an eye out for Mannarino, who is good indoors and could get out of this section.
Janko Tipsarevic is 1-3 this fall after a horrible year. He opens with Albert Ramos or wild card Karen Khachanov. If he can earn a win, he gets one of Denis Istomin/Andrey Kuznetsov/Ivo Karlovic/Denis Kudla in the quarters. Istomin seems close to a breakthrough while Karlovic could always surprise but has been slumping, probably still struggling with injury.
Bottom Half
Defending champion Andreas Seppi, who is struggling just a little, gets one of his countrymen, Paolo Lorenzi or Filippo Volandri in round 2. Sousa/Stakhovsky/Vesely/Roger-Vasselin await on deck. Sousa has a great chance to continue his top quality play with this draw.
Alex Dolgopolov will play a qualifier or Alex Bogomolov in the second round before seeing Ricardas Berankis/Horacio Zeballos or one of 2 qualifiers in the quarters in this easy section even for a player who has struggled this year.
Berankis is also one to watch here, even with his struggles.
Dark Horse: Ricardas Berankis
Berankis is in poor form and has been most of the year and he has lost 3 straight matches indoors. However, with this draw he still should make the quarters with a win over Zeballos and a qualifier. Dolgopolov is talented but inconsistent, Dolgo and he will be the favorite to reach the semis. Still, you never know.
Predictions
Semis:
Gasquet d. Istomin
Sousa d. Dolgopolov
Gasquet is 2-1 career against Istomin, while I have to go off form and pick Sousa to make the final over all comers.
Final:
Gasquet d. Sousa
Gasquet’s round one loss in Shanghai can probably be explained way due to fatigue from Beijing, and at this point, he should be fine to capture this title over a weak field. Sousa will have a shot if he plays like he did in Kuala Lumpur, but I’ll pick Reeshy.
2013 WTA Moscow Preview, Predictions
Connor Farley, Tennis East Coast
2013 Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
WTA Premier Series
Moscow, Russia
October 12-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: $795,707
Top 4 seeds (who will receive first round byes)
1: Angelique Kerber
2: Roberta Vinci
3: Maria Kirilenko
4: Ana Ivanovic
First round matchups to watch:
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Caroline Garcia
The home girl Pavlyuchenkova is the heavy favourite on paper in this first round matchup, although her recent results do not look outstanding, having a small let down after reaching the third round of the US Open in August. On the other side of the net is a dangerous youngster from France by the name of Caroline Garcia. Garcia had her standout year in 2011, reaching the second round of the French Open, where she lost out to Maria Sharapova in three sets. Since then, Garcia has had the odd good result, making the second round of the French and Wimbledon this year. Pavlyuchenkova, however, has won two titles this year in Monterrey and Oerias. The head-to-head between these two stands at 0-0, but Pavlyuchenkova should win here in two tight sets.
(5)Simona Halep vs. Dominika Cibulkova
Simona Halep
Cibulkova reached the quarterfinals of Linz this past week, losing to Ivanovic in two sets. But Simona Halep has had an outstanding year, winning the first four titles of her career (Nurnberg, ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Budapest and New Haven), as well as reaching a career high ranking of No. 17. Halep reached the fourth round of the US Open, where she lost to Pennetta in two sets again. On the other hand, Cibulkova has had an up and down year. Reaching the third round of Wimbledon was her best Slam result this year. She did win Stanford, beating Agnieszka Radwanska and reached the final of Sydney, where she lost to Radwanska.
This match is completely torn as both are coming in on form. The head-to-head between these two is 2-1 to Cibulkova, having last met in Indian Wells this year, where Dominika won 7-5 7-6. If I had to make a bold pick, I would say Halep would lift her game and come through this, perhaps losing a set.
(7)Samantha Stosur vs. Kaia Kanepi
Stosur is currently in the final of Osaka and is showing signs of life after having a disastrous 2013 season. Meanwhile, Kanepi has had a resurgent year, reaching the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, where she lost to eventual finalist Sabine Lisicki.
As far as recent results go for the Estonian, she lost in the second round of Beijing to Czech, Lucie Safarova. Kanepi leads this particular match-up 1-0, having last met at Wimbledon in 2010, where Kanepi made the semifinals in profound fashion.
Kanepi should have the mental edge over Stosur after having a promising year, but you should expect some hard hitting going on between these two, as well as some big serving.
A sure thriller for the crowds this will be, but I see Stosur leveling up the head-to-head in three nail biting sets.
Top Half:
Top seed Angelique Kerber will face either Pavlyuchenkova or Garcia in the second round after she received a first round bye. Kerber has played Pavlyuchenkova three times this year, with the Russian leading 2-1. She’ll have Daniela Hantuchova, a qualifier, Halep, the fifth seed, or Cibulkova waiting in the quarterfinals.
Also in the top half is third seed Maria Kirlenko and sixth seed Carla Suarez Navarro. Kirilenko received a first round bye due to her Top 4 seeding, but she faces either Magdalena Rybarikova of Slovakia or Ksenia Pervak of Kazakhstan in the second round. Linz semi-finalist Navarro, a qualifier, Alisa Kleybanova or American Varvara Lepchenko await in her quarter final.
Bottom Half:
Leading at the top of the bottom half is seventh seed Stosur, who faces Kanepi in the first round and Elina Svitolina of Ukraine or Alize Cornet of France in the second round. Stosur and Cornet have met five times. The Australian leads 3-2, having last met only two weeks ago in the first round of Tokyo, where Stosur won in three sets.
Ana Ivanovic, the fourth seed and Linz semifinalist, is Stosur’s potential quarterfinal opponent. She receives a first round bye, but will face either Zakopalova or a qualifier in the second round before potentially coming up against the Aussie. Ivanovic and Zakopalova have met once before way back in 2004 during qualifying for Zurich. Ivanovic won that match 7-5 6-0, so therefore leads the head-to-head 1-0.
Roberta Vinci, the 2 seed, lies at the bottom of the half. She faces either Elena Vesnina or Yaroslava Shevdova in the second round, with 8 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova being her potential quarterfinal opponent.
Kuznetsova faces Lesia Tsurenko, the impressive Ukrainian who has had a huge season this year, reaching the semis of Brisbane earlier in the year and has kept consistent results throughout. Thereafter, she faces Galina Voskoboeva or a qualifier in the second round to set up a clash with Vinci.
Dark Horse: (5) Simona Halep
Despite a first round loss in her last event in Beijing to Agnieszka Radwanska’s younger sister Urszula, Halep has remained strong and consistent this year in picking up four titles. She beat the likes of Petra Kvitova and Kirsten Flipkens to get them and has displayed great fight in Slams, too, most recently reaching the fourth round of the US Open. Definitely watch out for her this week, and don’t put it past her to beat higher ranked seeds and perhaps pick up the winners trophy at the end of it.
Predictions
Semis:
Kerber d.Kirilenko
Vinci d. Ivanovic
Kerber and Kirilenko have met once before in Monterrey this year, where the German won in three sets.
Kerber is in great form lately, much more so than Kirilenko. I would expect her to beat Kirilenko in straights this time, with perhaps one set being tight. Both Vinci and Ivanovic are on form too, so this could be a potential three-setter with the winner not being clear until the final stages, where I think the Italian will show her true skill around the court with her slice backhand and dispatch Ivanovic’s game.
Final:
Kerber d. Vinci
Doesn’t happen in very many events, but I predict it to go the way of the seedings and for the top seed to beat the second seed in a tight but straight sets final. Kerber has beaten Vinci twice before, with Vinci returning the favour and also beating the German twice. They last met only last week in Beijing, where Kerber rumbled through with ease.
Seeing as this is a final, expect a tougher match.
