Seeds Triumph as Dusan Lajovic, Tatsuma Ito Qualify in Moscow
Adam Addicott, Tennis Atlantic
Serbian Dusan Lajovic and Japan’s Tatsuma Ito sailed into the main draw of the Kremlin Cup after coming through three rounds in a draw which consisted of 20 Russian players.
One of the most noticeable Russian players was Dimitry Tursunov. The 32-year-old was playing his first competitive match for over a year after being sidelined from the tour due to Plantar fasciitis (inflammation of a thick band of tissue that runs across the bottom of your foot). In the first round, he won his first singles victory since June 2014 after beating 19-year-old Daniil Medvedev in three close sets, winning 9-7 in the final set tie-break. The reward for Tursunov was a showdown with top seed Lajovic. The former world No.20 was unable to continue his run as Lajovic eased to the victory (6-3, 6-4). After losing to the top seed, Tursunov has reportedly set a deadline for his career.
In the final round Lajovic faced German fifth seed Tobias Kamke. Kamke dropped just three games in his first two qualifying matches (two to Alexandr Lgoshin and one to Phillip Davydemnko). The Serbian survived a tough match by saving eight out of nine break points. Kamke had an opportunity to take the first set 6-4, but failed to take advantage of it. The failure by Kamke hampered him for the rest of the match as Lajovic won four consecutive games to take the first set before opening up an early lead in the second to swiftly take the match 7-5, 6-3, after an hour and 35 minutes.
Second seed Ito reached the main draw after overcoming a duo of Russian opponents (in the first round Estonia’s Vladimir Ivanov retired in the second set due to injury). In the second round Ito survived a scare against world No.1025 Richard Muzaev after getting off to a sluggish start. Muzaev has won eight Future titles in his career (two singles and six doubles). After the poor start, Ito took the match 1-6, 6-2, 6-1. In the last round he played Russian world No.560 Alexander Vasilenko who stunned eight seed Peda Krstin in the second round. Ito was two points away from losing the second set as the Russian unexpectedly moved ahead 5-2. Vasilenko was, however unable to stage the upset as Ito clawed his way back to take the match in straight sets – 6-1, 7-6 (4).
Spanish sixth seed Pere Riba progressed to his second ATP main draw of the year after upsetting Russian third seed Konstantin Kravchuk in the final round 6-3, 6-4. Throughout the three-match draw, the Spaniard didn’t drop a set. In the two earlier rounds, he defeated Alexey Vatutin and Mikhail Ledovskikh. Last month Riba reached his first tournament final this year at the ATP Sibiu Challenger in Romania where he lost to Adrian Ungur.
The only successful result for the home nation was fourth seed Aslan Karatsev. During the early stage of the draw he defeated fellow countrymen Vladimir Polyakov and Fedor Chervyakov. His final match was against another yet another Russian player, world No. 336 Mikhail Elgin. The 34-year-old defeated Bosnian eighth seed Aldin Setkic, 7-6 (3), 6-3, to reach the final round. After a slow start to the match, where he trailed 1-3, Karatsev regained his focus to ease to a 6-4, 6-3, win over Elgin to move to his first ATP main draw for two years.
First Round Matches
Dusan Lajovic SRB – Robin Haase NED (Lajovic leads the H2H 1-0 after beating Hasse in a 2013 Italian Challenger).
Pere Riba ESP – Pablo Cuevas URU (Cuevas leads 4-0, however, they havn’t played each other since 2011).
Aslan Karatsev RUS – Mikhail Youzhny RUS (Youzhny leads 1-0 , St. Perersburg 2013)
Tatsuma Ito JPA – Marsel Ilhan TUR – first meeting
2015 Caltanissetta, Moscow, Prague and Surbiton Challenger Recaps Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Caltanissetta
Where a week prior to this event Elias Ymer seemed to struggle with a hand injury, it clearly wasn’t a serious one, as he marched through the field convincingly in Caltanissetta. He took out fifth seed Maximo Gonzalez 7-6(1) 7-6(6) in the second round, after which fourth seed Guido Pella fell 6-3 3-6 7-5 a round later. In the semi-final he faced top seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who had only dropped twelve games so far in the tournament. In yet another close encounter, Ymer managed to beat him as well, 7-6(9) 3-6 6-4. In the bottom half a remarkable match happened in the quarterfinal, with sixth seed Marco Cecchinato handing Guilherme Clezar a double bagel, 6-0 6-0. In the semi-final he was ousted by Bjorn Fratangelo, however. Fratangelo knew a similar path to the final as Ymer, with all matches he played being tight. 7-6(6) 7-6(4), 3-6 6-3 6-2, 3-6 7-5 6-1 and eventually 4-6 6-3 6-3 against Cecchinato. In the final the pattern was broken, with Ymer comfortably beating Fratangelo 6-3 6-2 to take down his first Challenger title. It also meant a new career high ranking for Ymer, rising forty-one spots to #130. A new career high ranking for Fratangelo as well, rising twenty-two spots to #122.
Moscow
Top seed Marcel Granollers already struggled during his first round match against Jules Marie, 6-2 4-6 6-4, and couldn’t survive his second long match in the quarterfinal against Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, with the older Spaniard winning 6-3 5-7 6-4. In the second section Horacio Zeballos finally posted a good win again, beating third seed Damir Dzumhur 7-6(4) 6-3 in the quarterfinal. Munoz-De La Nava ousted him in the semi-final, however, winning 6-7(9) 6-4 6-1. In the bottom half a lot of controversy spurred, as Renzo Olivo claimed to have been threatened by spectators and his opponent Andrey Rublev during their second round encounter, which he lost. He complained that the umpire failed to do anything, while the rules state that the match should have been suspended.
Rublev went on to reach the semi-final, where he lost 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3 to fifth seed Radu Albot, who beat second seed Teymuraz Gabashvili 6-3 6-4 in the previous round. A remarkable final then took place, with Munoz-De La Nava completely tearing Albot apart, 6-0 6-1, to win his third Challenger title. Rising twenty-seven spots to #107, this means a new career high ranking for the 33-year-old, who joins the list of players in their thirties playing their best tennis. It would be quite an achievement if he manages to reach the top 100 for the first time, practically out of nowhere, as he started the year outside of the top 200. A new career high ranking for Albot as well, rising ten spots to #119.
Prague
After a rough year, 34-year-old Albert Montanes has started to find some of his old form as of late. He continued that trend here in Prague, beating fourth seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov 1-6 6-3 6-2 in the semi-final to set up his second final in a row, after losing the final of Fürth to Taro Daniel last week. Daniel competed here as well, but lost to Nedovyesov in the quarterfinal. In the bottom half Kimmer Coppejans continued his march to the top 100, reaching the semi-final after a three-set victory over Marton Fucsovics, 6-4 5-7 6-1. Despite his loss to Norbert Gombos, 7-6(4) 6-2, in the next round, it was enough to reach the top 100 for the first time, entering at #98. The final between Montanes and Gombos was an absolutely titanic struggle, with Montanes failing to come out on top in consecutive weeks. After a 7-6(5) 5-7 7-6(2) win, Gombos secured his second Challenger title. Quite a contrast to last week, when he missed eight match points against Martin Klizan in his opening round. He also rose ten ranking spots to #127. Montanes is very nearby, rising eleven spots to #125.
Top seed Luca Vanni is very inexperienced on grass and it showed, falling 7-6(2) 6-2 in the first round to the 2011 Wimbledon Juniors champion Luke Saville., who reached the final of Manchester last week. In this half it was Matthew Ebden who was by far the most impressive player, not dropping more than three games in a set on his way to the final, only losing seventeen games in four matches, including a 6-0 6-2 win against third seed Ryan Harrison in the quarterfinal. In the final he faced Denis Kudla, who knew pretty much a similar tournament trajectory, dropping twenty-one games on his way to the final. The final was a spectacular one, with Ebden just edging out the important points in the end and saving two match points in the process, eventually winning 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5). Ebden is now nearing the top 150 again, rising thirty-five spots to #154. Kudla rose eight spots to #131.
2015 Caltanissetta, Moscow, Prague and Surbiton Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Citta Di Caltanissetta
ATP Challenger Tour
Caltanissetta, Italy
8-14 June 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: €106,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Albert Ramos-Vinolas (63)
2: Paolo Lorenzi (86)
3: Alejandro Gonzalez (105)
4: Guido Pella (113)
5: Maximo Gonzalez (114)
6: Marco Cecchinato (122)
7: Bjorn Fratangelo (149)
8: Gastao Elias (152)
The last direct acceptance is Christian Garin, ranked 249th. Second seed Lorenzi withdrew due to the left leg injury he attracted in the semi-final of Mestre last week, his place in the draw is taken over by Guilherme Clezar.
Second round match-ups to watch
(4) Guido Pella – Andrea Arnaboldi
Those who follow the Challenger tour have known him for a long time, but Arnaboldi made a name for himself on the main tour as well, with an awe-inspiring run at Roland Garros. In the second qualifying round he beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert 27-25 in the third set, in the third round he came back from a set and 5-2* down against Marco Trungelliti and in the first round of the main draw he came back from two sets down and saved a match point against James Duckworth, handing him a bagel in the fifth set. Against Marin Cilic in the next round he wasn’t able to offer much resistance, but it didn’t lessen his dream run. Pella has been in excellent form himself this year, winning two Challengers and reaching the final in another one, so this should be an interesting and close encounter.
(5) Maximo Gonzalez – Elias Ymer
Ymer looked to have injured his hand in his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes in Fürth last week, but judging by his opening round win against Guido Andreozzi here we can assume it wasn’t that bad, which should enable him to challenge Gonzalez, who might be feeling a bit tired after his title run in Mestre last week.
Top Half
Top seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas will be looking to avenge his painful loss against Albert Montanes in Fürth last week and he has an excellent draw to do so. Reaching the semi-final shouldn’t be a problem, after which he will face one of Pella, Arnaboldi, Ymer or Gonzalez, who all pretty much have an equal shot of reaching that stage.
Bottom Half
Normally Lorenzi would have been the clear favorite in this half, but with him out of the picture it is quite open. Third seed Alejandro Gonzalez and sixth seed Marco Cecchinato have the best chances and will most likely determine who the finalist will be, with Guilherme Clezar as a dangerous outsider.
Predictions
Semis:
Ramos-Vinolas d. Arnaboldi
Cecchinato d. Gonzalez
Final:
Ramos-Vinolas d. Cecchinato
Hoff Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Moscow, Russia
8-14 June 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Marcel Granollers (57)
2: Teymuraz Gabashvili (74)
3: Damir Dzumhur (88)
4: Blaz Rola (97)
5: Radu Albot (130)
6: Alexander Kudryavtsev (131)
7: Daniel Munoz-De La Nava (134)
8: Horacio Zeballos (142)
The last direct acceptance is Miljan Zekic, ranked 329th.
Second round match-up to watch
Karen Khachanov – Evgeny Donskoy
19-year-old Khachanov’s development seemed to have halted a bit in comparison to some of his age-peers, but he has done really well for himself this year, rising almost 150 ranking spots and now sitting at #231. Clay is Donskoy’s worst surface, so Khachanov should be able to really threaten him here.
Top Half
Top seed Marcel Granollers is by far the best ranked player here and he should also have the best chance to advance. His biggest threat to reach the final will be Damir Dzumhur, who reached the third round at Roland Garros and might be able to take Granollers out. They faced off in Casablanca this year, but Granollers had to retire after going down 3-0.
Bottom Half
This half is considerably more open, with various players who can go through. Partially due to them being very erratic, making it hard to predict what form they will bring into the event. Second seed Teymuraz Gabashvili plays the equally erratic Antonio Veic in the second round, while youngster Andrey Rublev faces Renzo Olivo. I think it will be between Gabashvili and Rublev for a place in the final.
Predictions
Semis:
Dzumhur d. Granollers
Gabashvili d. Rublev
Final:
Dzumhur d. Gabashvili
Sparta Prague Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Prague, Czech Republic
8-13 June 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: €42,500
The last direct acceptance is Hugo Dellien, ranked 257th.
Second round match-up to watch
(3) Kimmer Coppejans – Pere Riba
Former world #65 Riba just returned after a lengthy injury lay-off and it will be interesting to see what he can do against Coppejans, the young Belgian who is having a breakthrough year. Coppejans will be a good test for Riba, where he can see if he already got what it takes to hang with guys around the top 100 mark.
Top Half
Top seed Joao Souza got upset in the first round by Hans Podlipnik-Castillo, leaving Taro Daniel as the clear favorite in this half. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how tired Daniel will be, given his title run at Fürth last week, where he beat Albert Montanes in the final, whom he is likely to meet again in the semi-final here.
Bottom Half
The clear favorite in this half is Kimmer Coppejans and if he brings the form that saw him reach new heights at Challenger level this year he should be able to conquer this half with relative ease. The main threat will probably be #8 seed Inigo Cervantes, who has been on a great run himself.
Predictions
Semis:
Daniel d. Montanes
Coppejans d. Cervantes
Final:
Coppejans d. Daniel
Aegon Surbiton Trophy
ATP Challenger Tour
Surbiton, Great Britain
8-14 June 2015
Grass
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Luca Vanni (102)
2: James Ward (104)
3: Ryan Harrison (126)
4: Denis Kudla (136)
5: Yoshihito Nishioka (146)
6: Jared Donaldson (153)
7: Yuki Bhambri (156)
8: James McGee (157)
The last direct acceptance is Jason Jung, ranked 214th.
Second round match-up to watch
(6) Jared Donaldson – Matthew Ebden
Ebden faces two Americans in a row, having beaten Chase Buchanan in the first round. Ebden’s game translates well to grass and he should be able to give his ranking a boost on the surface, perhaps even by reaching the final here.
Top Half
As said, I think Ebden could do some serious damage here, potentially facing Ryan Harrison in the quarterfinal, who is not in good form. The top section is wide open with top seed Luca Vanni going out to Luke Saville in the first round, leaving James McGee as the only seed.
Bottom Half
This is an excellent opportunity for Denis Kudla to rekindle some form. He potentially faces Yoshihito Nishioka in the quarterfinal, which should be a tough challenge. After that he is likely to face Igor Sijsling, who is a lot better on grass than his ranking may suspect and beat Milos Raonic at Wimbledon in the not too distant past.
Top Ten Players Murray, Berdych and Cilic Claim ATP Titles
ATP Vienna
Andy Murray continued his strong run of play to finish out the 2014 season, as the Scotsman toppled fellow top 10 player David Ferrer 5-7 6-2 7-5 in a Murray-coaster final in the Austrian capital. The title is the second for Murray this season, and both of his ATP titles this year have come at the 250 level after the US Open, the other of course in Shenzen last month.
Ferrer served for the match in the third set, but could not finish the job, and Murray had a late push to win.
Murray bolstered his claim to one of the 8 World Tour Final spots with wins over Vasek Pospisil, JL Struff and Viktor Troicki to reach the final this week. He appeared comfortable throughout as he didn’t drop a set before the final.
Ferrer continues to befuddle fans and pundits alike with his topsy-turvy form. He actually played quite well this week, scoring wins over Tobias Kamke and Ivo Karlovic without dropping a set, and then winning a third set tiebreak against Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the final.
The Austrian fans were able to celebrate one of their own lifting a trophy this week, as Jurgen Melzer, and his veteran pal Philipp Petzschner defeated Andre Begemann and Julian Knowles in the doubles final. Both pairings were made up of an Austrian and a German.
ATP Stockholm
Tomas Berdych also claimed a 250 title as expected this week. The in-form Czech won a hard fought match with Grigor Dimitrov, prevailing 5-7 6-4 6-4, and in the process preventing Dimitrov from repeating as the Stockholm champion. The match could have perhaps ended in two sets, but Berdych couldn’t finish off the first set and Dimitrov had a late charge to take it. Berdy was much better late in the second and third sets and that was enough to get him through.
The path to a second career Stockholm title for Berdych ran through Dustin Brown, Marius Copil and Matthias Bachinger this week, all without dropping a set as the Czech number one is serving lights out at the moment.
Dimitrov beat Teymuraz Gabashvili, Jack Sock in a 3 set comeback, and Bernard Tomic to reach the final this week.
Eric Butorac and Raven Klaasen defeated Treat Huey and Jack Sock in the doubles final.
ATP Moscow
Marin Cilic laid claim to his twelfth career ATP 250 level title in Moscow, and he completed the trio of top 10 winners on the ATP tour this week. The Croat #1 defeated Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4 6-4 in the final and in the process qualified for the World Tour Finals.
Cilic did not have smooth sailing to the final, as he needed 3 sets against Evgeny Donskoy in his first match, and against an in form Mikhail Kukushkin in the semifinals, but along with dispatching Tommy Robredo in the quarters, he did reach the final and gave RBA few opportunities to win the match.
Bautista Agut, who has had a tremendous season in his own right, was a well-deserved finalist, and this year he has cemented himself as one of the top 5 Spanish players on tour. The Spaniard with the powerful forehand defeated Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Groth, Ricardas Berankis and his bad blood rival Ernests Gulbis without dropping a set to reach the final.
Frantisek Cermak and Jiri Vesely combined to win the doubles title over the Aussies Sam Groth and Chris Guccione.
2014 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews, Picks Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
With just three weeks left in the ATP World Tour Season, the race is on for the final World Tour Final spots, while most other players on tour are seeking to boost their year-end ranking by earning some late season ranking spots. There are three 250 level indoor hard court events in Europe this week and here is a preview of each one.
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (7)
2: Grigor Dimitrov (10)
3: Kevin Anderson (16)
4: Alex Dolgopolov (24)
Stockholm attracts three top 20 players and it’s a solid field for a 250 level event.
Berdych and Dimitrov are in contention for the World Tour Finals.
First Round matchups to watch:
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Adrian Mannarino
Baghdatis had sustained periods of strong play this summer but he has not been healthy since the US Open, and he is looking to take his aggressive game indoors and enjoy success in Stockholm. He starts with the versatile Frenchman Mannarino, who has done very well at the challenger level on hard courts, but has struggled translating that success to the ATP level this year. This is a challenger-level round 1 matchup, and I think Mannarino will sneak through. The two veterans have never met before in a tournament match.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
The veteran Frenchman Chardy will take on the 18-year-old Swede Ymer, who gets a wildcard in a home event for him. Ymer is the most promising young Swede and he played reasonably well recently in a trio of USTA Pro Circuit Events. He scored two wins, and pushed the American trio of Sam Querrey, Denis Kudla, and Rhyne Williams to three sets in each tournament. Chardy should prevail, but it’s possible Ymer could earn his second career ATP main draw win this week.
Top Half:
Former Stockholm Champion Tomas Berdych opens with a qualifier or Swedish wild card Christian Lindell. Berdych went 6-2 on the Asian swing, and appears to be playing well at the moment with his only losses to Djokovic and the in-form Gilles Simon. Look for him to ease his way into the semifinals, after defeating Joao Sousa, the number 8 seed, in the quarterfinals. Sousa has lost two straight matches but he is known to play well on indoor hard, including Metz recently where he made the final, and his competition en route to the quarters, a qualifier, and Pablo Carreno Busta or a qualifier, is far from imposing.
Alex Dologopolov gets a bye, but he is 0-2 since returning to the ATP tour from a knee injury, and he could suffer a loss to the Baghdatis/Mannarino winner. Dolgo showed major improvement between his Tokyo and Shanghai losses though, and I think he has just enough game to reach the quarterfinals, given Baggy and Mannarino are both erratic. That said, Donald Young or Igor Sijsling have great shots at making the semifinals this week. Young opens with 5 seed Leo Mayer, who is far more comfortable on clay (though he nearly beat Roger Federer in Shanghai), and Sijsling opens with a qualifier. That said, both Young and Sijsling are also struggling: Sijsling has been far from impressive indoors on the challenger circuit in Europe, and Young lost to journeyman Malek Jaziri in Shanghai. Given Sijsling’s previous successes on indoor hard, I have him beating a qualifier, Young and then Dolgopolov (or even Baghdatis/Mannarino) to reach the semifinals in what is a toss-up section.
Bottom Half:
Defending champion Grigor Dimitrov opens with Teymuraz Gabashvili or Alejandro Falla. Neither of those players are playing good tennis at the moment and Dimitrov should set up a quarterfinal meeting with Chardy/Ymer or Jack Sock/Andrey Golubev. Sock just beat Golubev in Tokyo, and he has another great chance at a strong week, after winning consecutive matches in both Tokyo, where he beat Dolgopolov, and Shanghai, where he upset Kei Nishikori. Dimitrov, who is a year older than Sock, has never played him before, and I think Sock will put up a competitive showing, but I have Grisha into the semifinals yet again. He lost in the second round of Shanghai after making the quarters in Beijing.
Kevin Anderson is set to face Bernard Tomic in round 2. Tomic plays Swedish wild card Patrik Rosenholm in round 1. Tomic has beaten Anderson twice on hard courts, both times in 3 sets: once in 2013 in Sydney, and the other time in Shanghai in 2011. Tomic qualified in Shanghai, and Anderson went just 2-2 on the Asian swing, with losses to Chardy and Mikhail Kukushkin. Anderson has been more successful indoors than Tomic, but not by a lot, which is surprising given Anderson is a lanky big server. I have Tomic sneaking through to the quarterfinals in my bracket. At that stage he could face 7 seed Fernando Verdasco, Marinko Matosevic, Albert Ramos, or most likely, in my estimation, Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen has always been a top performer indoors and he reached the semis in Kuala Lumpur. He also has beaten Verdasco before on hard courts, twice in fact, once in 2005, and once in 2013. Verdasco won a 3 setter in Stockholm last year, and once more indoors in Rotterdam in 2008, but I’m not very convinced by his form right now. He is just 2-3 in his last five matches, though two of those losses are to Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic. He still seems a bit lost at the moment.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
I have the unseeded Igor Sijsling in the semis this week and the unseeded Tomic in the quarters, but neither of them really have the potential to make the final, in my estimation. Nieminen, on the other hand, should reach the semis, assuming he can upset Verdasco, and Verdasco may even lose to Matosevic in round 1. Nieminen-Tomic or Nieminen-Anderson would also be a tough contest, but Jarkko should get his upset shot against Dimitrov in the semis. He is 2-0 career against the Bulgarian, with both of his wins coming indoors. Dimitrov is much improved since those matches were played, but the h2h still is what it is.
Predictions
Semis:
Berdych d. Sijsling
Dimitrov d. Nieminen
Berdych should cruise to the final, barely facing any competition, given the weak top half of the draw. He crushed Sijsling in Davis Cup earlier this year, and the result should be the same no matter who he faces in the semis.
I have Dimitrov beating Nieminen since he’s a superior talent at this point, and he cares about retaining the Stockholm crown.
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
Dimitrov and Berdych have split h2h meetings this year, both times on clay, and Dimitrov was 2-0 before that, but both of those hard court meetings went to a decisive third set. After watching them both in the Asian swing, I think everyone would agree Berdych is playing superior tennis right now, and that should be enough to win him his second Stockholm title.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Berdych d. Dolgopolov
Dimitrov d. Tomic
Final:
Berdych d. Dimitrov
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: €521,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (5)
2: Andy Murray (11)
3: Feliciano Lopez (21)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (23)
Murray and Ferrer are fighting to make the World Tour Finals and they highlight the field in Vienna, which is balanced otherwise.
First Round matchups to watch:
Carlos Berlocq vs. (WC)Gerald Melzer
Berlocq is the far more accomplished player, but he’s very poor on indoor hard, and the younger Melzer won a couple of matches at the Mons challenger on indoor hard. The wild card is looking for his first career ATP main draw victory yet again and he should be motivated. Berlocq is likely to advance, but he is coming off playing clay court challengers, and this one has some upset potential.
Martin Klizan vs. Benjamin Becker
Two in-form players will do battle in a match that I am really looking forward to. Klizan is 8-3 over his last 11 matches, and he made round 2 in Shanghai after reaching the semis in Beijing. He lost to David Ferrer in a competitive 3 set battle in Shanghai that he very much should have won. Becker reached the semis in Tokyo after reaching the quarters in Kuala Lumpur and he pushed Kei Nishikori to 3 sets in Tokyo, very nearly pulling off a massive upset. With both players playing some of their best tennis all year right now, and given they both have aggressive playstyles, this one should be full of highlights. It’s very hard to predict and both are solid indoors, but I have Klizan sneaking through in 3 sets because I feel his game at a peak level is better than what Becker brings to the table.
Thomaz Bellucci vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Bellucci just beat Mathieu in the Orleans Challenger semifinals a couple of weeks ago, which was surprisingly their first head to head meeting, though they have both played on tour for a while. Bellucci is on a two match losing streak, while Mathieu lost in round 2 of the Rennes challenger, and they have both been playing indoor hard courts at the challenger level in Europe, rather than going to Asia for ATP competition this Fall. Given PHM has nominally been superior on indoor hard over the course of his career, I have him through to round 2 but it could go either way.
Top Half:
David Ferrer will need to be on upset alert for his first contest against either Simone Bolelli or Tobias Kamke. Both are competent on indoor hard and Ferrer is just 2-4 in his last six matches. He did manage to win consecutive matches in Shanghai, including a 3 set win over Andy Murray, and he’s fighting to make the World Tour Finals, thus I do have him through to the quarters after a test from Bolelli. Bolelli has a 2-0 h2h against Kamke and more peak potential than the journeyman German who has been plying his trade at the indoor hard court tournaments in Europe this fall. Look for a Ferrer vs. Ivo Karlovic quarterfinal. The big serving Croat made the third round in Shanghai, upsetting Marin Cilic en route, and he broke a poor run of form he was having for quite some time. His first opponent is Federico Delbonis, and then a qualifier or Jurgen Melzer, the home favorite, is to follow. Melzer is a two-time champion in Vienna, and he’s a career 5-1 against Karlovic, but he’s been struggling all year and he’s ranked outside the top 100. Though he played alright in Tokyo, his form has to be suspect right now, and that’s why I have Karlovic beating him. Ferrer is 2-1 against Karlovic, and I feel he’s motivated enough to the reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with the Gerald Melzer/Berlocq winner. Kohli is struggling, and he suffered a shoulder injury in Metz from which he may not have fully recovered. However, barring a big upset, Kohli should reach the quarterfinals before falling to Klizan. Other potential quarterfinal opponents are Becker and local hope Dominic Thiem. Thiem opens with the pedestrian Robin Haase and then will face the Becker/Klizan winner. Of course, that should be a great match, and I feel form favors Klizan, or Becker, to reach the quarterfinals, though Thiem made round 2 in Shanghai and is far from a pushover. I have Klizan over Kohlschreiber given the form factor at the moment.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray will open with Vasek Pospisil or a qualifier and he very well could fall to the Canadian, who played reasonably well in Asia without any deep runs to show for it. Murray is 9-2 since the US Open though, and he has not lost to a non-top 20 player since the grass court season. In fact, he has just three losses to a player ranked outside the top 20 in 2014, which has not been one of his best seasons by any measure.
Look for Murray to cruise into the semis if he can get past Vashy. His quarterfinal opponent, one of JL Struff/Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Sergiy Stakhovsky/qualifier is far from imposing and he should not have any trouble. Stako is playing well at the moment: he won the Orleans challenger on indoor hard and fell in the finals of the Tashkent challenger on hard courts last week. However, he is 0-3 career against Struff, with all those matches taking place this year or last, and the German should be fresher for this tournament. Struff was a semifinalist in Metz and should have a good week.
Shanghai semifinalist Feliciano Lopez will look to make a quick turnaround and continue his fine play in Vienna. The Spaniard will open with the Mathieu/Bellucci winner and unless he’s worn out he should setup a meeting with Lukas Rosol in the quarters. Rosol opens with Tashkent champion Lukas Lacko, who should be tired, and then Victor Estrella or a qualifier. Rosol has lost six straight matches, but he actually has a rather easy path to the quarters. Mathieu/Bellucci will have an outside shot at making a run this week, but signs point to Lopez making the semis in this rather weak section.
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan can play some great tennis when his game is clicking, through his path of Becker, Thiem/Haase and Kohlschreiber, before a likely meeting with Ferrer. Ferrer in the semis is far from easy, but he’s talented enough to survive the gauntlet. He nearly beat Ferrer in Shanghai, but he couldn’t put the match away, and I don’t think he will beat Ferrer this time either, but I’m sure he’s hungry for revenge.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Klizan
Murray d. Lopez
Ferrer just survived a battle with Klizan in Shanghai, and Murray has never lost to Lopez in nine career meetings, including two this season.
Final:
Murray d. Ferrer
Ferrer did just beat Murray in Shanghai, but I chalk that 3 set loss up to fatigue more than anything else, and the Scot should be motivated to take this title. It could be a close match, but I’m going with Murray as champion this week.
Chris De Waard’s picks
Semis:
Ferrer d. Thiem
Pospisil d. Lacko
Final:
Ferrer d. Pospisil
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 13-October 19, 2014
Prize Money: $776,620
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP Ranking in parentheses)
1: Milos Raonic (8)
2: Marin Cilic (9)
3: Ernests Gulbis (13)
4: Fabio Fognini (17)
Cilic and Raonic are both in contention to make the World Tour Finals and like the other two tournaments this week, it is a balanced field in Moscow.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Andreas Seppi vs. Dusan Lajovic
The rising Serb Lajovic will have a nice upset chance against Seppi, who is a former champion in Moscow. Seppi has not had the best of seasons and he hasn’t played great on indoor hard at the ATP level the past two seasons. Seppi has a h2h win on clay and Lajovic has yet to have sustained success indoors, but I do see this match going 3 sets. I have Seppi getting through in my bracket but the upset possibility is there.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (WC)Karen Khachanov
The 18 year old Khachanov made a run to the quarterfinals last year in Moscow and now he has some major points to defend against Kukushkin. Kukushkin played well in Asia, going 4-2 overall, with wins over Kevin Anderson and Tommy Robredo in Shanghai, before narrowly losing to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets. Khachanov, who has yet to really break through and find the consistency he needs to compete with the top players, comes off qualifying for the Rennes challenger, where he lost in round 2. Kukushkin could win this comfortably but Khachanov will have home support, and it should at least be an enjoyable match.
Top Half:
Milos Raonic opens with a qualifier, then most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters. RBA has Andrey Kuznetsov, a home favorite, up first, then Sam Groth or wild card Andrey Rublev in his path. Rublev is currently the world number 1 junior player, and at 16, he’s making his ATP main draw debut at a home tournament in Moscow. Groth has a big serve but little else going for him, and Rublev will at least have a chance at getting his maiden ATP win. RBA comes off the third round in Shanghai and he has never played Raonic before. Raonic retired most likely due to fatigue, or perhaps the flu, in round 1 in Shanghai, but he should be fresh and fit here in Moscow. Given it’s an indoor hard court tournament, Raonic should cruise to the semis if healthy.
Ernests Gulbis is struggling: the Latvian appears to be carrying a shoulder injury and I’m honestly not sure why he’s playing Moscow nor why he played in Shanghai last week. He’s visibly injured and it’s affecting his game. He should fall to Jiri Vesely, who opens with dirtballer Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in round 2. Vesely has made two consecutive indoor hard court semifinals in Orleans and Mons, and he’s playing well right now. It should be a Vesely vs. Seppi/Lajovic or Ivan Dodig quarterfinal. Dirtballer Pere Riba is also in this section, the first opponent for Dodig. Dodig reversed a previously 0-4 h2h against Seppi across surfaces and beat him in Toronto in 3 sets this year, thus their match in Moscow is an unpredictable affair, should it occur. I have Dodig through to face Vesely, but I am not entirely confident.
Bottom Half:
Marin Cilic will open with Dudi Sela or Evgeny Donskoy. Sela is 2-0 against the underachieving Russian, so he should get through to round 2. Look for Cilic to face Tommy Robredo in the quarterfinals. Robredo will face Malek Jaziri or Filip Krajinovic in round 2 before Cilic. Robredo and Cilic have both lost two straight matches after previously playing well, but the h2h does favor Cilic who is 2-1 on hard courts and 2-1 against the Spaniard this season. Given the indoor hard court surface, it should be Cilic in the semis.
Fabio Fognini lost to a Chinese wild card in Shanghai and he really appears to be off the rails right now. I have him losing to Kukushkin in round 2, and his lack of focus and effort is shining through at the moment. Look for a Kukushkin vs. Mikhail Youzhny quarterfinal, assuming the former Moscow champ can get past a qualifier, and Juan Monaco/Paolo Lorenzi. Youzhny just beat Monaco en route to the Shanghai quarterfinals, perhaps his best result all season, a year in which he has fallen from the top 30 and struggled with consistency. Kukushkin and Youzhny have split indoor hard court meetings on Russian soil and they both had good runs in Shanghai. It’s a hard to predict matchup, given how poor Youzhny has been this season by and large, but he is playing at a tournament he normally does well at so look for the Colonel to advance.
Dark Horse: Jiri Vesely
Kukushkin will also have a chance to do well this week, but Vesely should make the semis with wins over DGT, an injured Gulbis, and Seppi/Dodig/Lajovic. Vesely vs. Seppi and Vesely vs. Dodig would be hard to predict, but the young Czech has a game built to do well on indoor hard and I feel he’s motivated and in the right sort of form to do well.
Predictions
Semis:
Raonic d. Vesely
Cilic d. Youzhny
Unless something is wrong with Raonic, he should make the final this week comfortably enough. He crushed Vesely on clay, his weakest surface, at the French Open this year and he’s motivated to make the World Tour Final.
Cilic has won the last 3 meetings with Youzhny, and 4 of the last 5, after the Russian started with a strong h2h advantage. This includes their last three indoor meetings, two of which went to a decisive third set, and though Cilic has lost two straight, he should recover and reach the final, given Youzhny has been poor most of the season.
Final:
Raonic d. Cilic
Raonic and Cilic have a 1-1 hard court h2h and Cilic won indoors in Valencia in 2011. Both guys have had excellent seasons, and Cilic has perhaps had the higher peak given he won the US Open, while Raonic has just been a very consistent top 10 player in a variety of tournaments and across surfaces. He plays some of his best tennis indoors and that should be enough to give him the edge.
Wozniacki Wins 1st 2013 Title in Luxembourg, Halep Wins 5th in Moscow
WTA Luxembourg
Caroline Wozniacki won her first WTA title of 2013 in Luxembourg this week with a 6-2, 6-2 win over German wunderkind Annika Beck. It was Annika’s first tour level final and from the off she looked nervous, surrendering serve in the very first game.
She did manage to break back though, but was broken again for 2-1. Beck broke again for 2-2, but failed to win another game in the first set.
The second set was much of the same, with Caroline prevailing with a 6-2 6-2 beatdown.
Wozniacki scored wins over Minella, Niculescu, Jovanovski and third seed Lisicki, only dropping one set on the way to the final in her QF match.
Beck upset Pironkova, Safarova, Piter and Vogele, before falling to Wozniacki in the final.
WTA Moscow
In Moscow, projected dark horse Simona Halep was the one to pick up the trophy with a 7-6(1), 6-2 win over seventh seed and 2012 runner up Samantha Stosur.
Halep went up an early lead in the first set and managed to secure a 4-1 lead, but she surrendered to Stosur’s fine serving and returning who wrestled back to 4-4. The set then went with serve into a tiebreak which Halep took 7-1.
The second set was much more straightforward with Halep racing to a 5-2 lead, only to break Stosur to win the title.
Dimitrov Wins 1st ATP Title, Haas Victorious in Vienna, Gasquet Hunts for World Tour Finals
ATP Stockholm
Grigor Dimitrov won his first career ATP title in his second ATP finals appearance this year, and he did so in resounding fashion 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 over top seed David Ferrer.
Dimitrov, who is now working with coach Roger Rasheed, played much improved tennis this week after slumping. The Bulgarian youngster rolled past Marius Copil, JL Struff and Kenny De Schepper before winning in 3 sets over Benoit Paire to reach the final. It was a show of adept play on a fast surface.
Ferrer made another final, but drops to 2-5 this year in ATP finals with the loss. The Spaniard won won ugly and did not play up to his usual standard in 3 set wins against Jack Sock and Ernests Gulbis (who came up just short). Ferrer also got a walkover against Fernando Verdasco.
Aisam Ul-Haq Qureshi and Jean-Julien Rojer won the doubles title in routine fashion over Robert Lindstedt and Jonas Bjorkman, who returned from retirement to play doubles this week and he played well.
Also a shout out to former top 10 player Joachim Johansson, who had his career derailed by injuries and made a mini comeback this week in Stockholm, where he qualified and reached the second round at the age of 31. His tennis was on par with many current ATP regulars.
ATP Moscow
Richard Gasquet blitzed his way past a weak field in Moscow and beat qualifier and comeback story Mikhail Kukushkin 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 for his third title of 2013.
The Frenchman moved to the number 9 spot in the World Tour Finals race, which will in fact be the final spot given that Andy Murray is out of the WTF. Gasquet will still have to maintain that spot. Reeshy beat Evgeny Donskoy in 3 sets and then proceeded to roll over Teymuraz Gabashvili and Ivo Karlovic before the final.
Kukushkin, who has had a great year primarily at the challenger level, Kuskishkin has dealt with injuries that derailed recently, but he looked good to qualify and then reach his second career ATP final. He made the journey with wins over Alex Bogomolov, Alex Dolgopolov and Andrey Golubev, all in straights, and made the final with a 3 set win over Andreas Seppi in the semis.
Also notable here is 17-year-old Russian youngster Karen Khachanov, who upset both Albert Ramos and Janko Tipsarevic to reach the quarterfinals as a wildcard. Khachanov will zoom up the rankings and he is one to watch : Khachanov is actually 3-2 at the ATP level this year, having nabbed a wildcard before losing in the second round of the other Russian event in St. Petersburg.
ATP Vienna
Tommy Haas showed renewed spark in Vienna in topping Robin Haase 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 for his 15th career ATP title and 2nd of the 2013 campaign.
Haas beat Miloslav Mecir and Radek Stepanek in straights. He outlasted Lukas Rosol in 3 sets to reach the final. All were close matches, but he gritted his way there.
Haase beat Ilja Bozoljac, Vasek Pospisil and Fabio Fognini all in 3 sets, and then dispatched Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in straights to reach the final. Tsonga looked flat out hobbled all week in Vienna and it was painful to watch.
Florin Mergea/Lukas Rosol are the doubles champions over Julian Knowle/Daniel Nestor.
Shout out to another young wild card who did well at home this week, the 20 y.o. Dominic Thiem.
Thiem reached his second ATP quarterfinal of 2013 (the other also coming in Austria at the Kitzbuhel tournament).
Thiem moved to 4-2 at the ATP level this year with wins over Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Jaroslav Pospisil. He very nearly beat Tsonga after those victories.
