WTA Brisbane, Shenzhen, @ASB_Classic Previews and Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
Simona Halep
The WTA season of 2018 is up and running and it promises to be a cracker. The season opens up with events in Brisbane, Shenzhen and Auckland and we have a run down of all three draws.
Brisbane
World number two Garbine Muguruza kicks off her season at the Brisbane International that boasts a stacked field of top ten players.
Top Half:
When you look at the top half you look immediately to the possible semi final between Muguruza and fourth seed Caroline Garcia. However both players have some tough matches ahead to reach this point.
Muguruza has a BYE in the opening round, but her tournament really gets going in the quarter finals where she could face the tricky Anastasija Sevastova. The Latvian faces home favourite Sam Stosur first however, and the ever dangerous floater Sorana Cirstea has also landed in this section.
Garcia opens against compatriot Alize Cornet whom she has a good record against. But her quarter final could be very interesting because she has draw Kristina Mladenovic in her section. The Frenchwoman ended 2017 on a losing streak however and that could allow Petra Kvitova through to the last eight.
Bottom Half:
The bottom half hosts a lot of big names including second seed Karolina Pliskova and third seed Elina Svitolina who are projected to meet in the semi finals.
Svitolina has a tough draw. Carla Suarez Navarro is an experienced player in round one, then Ana Konjuh is a dangerous youngster in round two. Johanna Konta meets Madison Keys in the match of the first round and the winner of that should make the quarter finals.
Pliskova has a decent draw to the quarter finals. After a first raw BYE she could face Cici Bellis in the second round. But in the quarters it will get tricky with Ashleigh Barty projected for the last eight. The Aussie’s biggest obstacle to the quarter finals is fellow youngster Daria Kastakina which will be a very entertaining second round.
Predictions:
Semi finals:
Garcia def. Muguruza
Barty def. Svitolina
Final
Barty def. Garcia
Shenzhen
Simona Halep begins her campaign in China at the Shenzhen Open, and she is joined by French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko and the unseeded Maria Sharapova
Top half:
Simona Halep enters as the favourite here and her half suggests that she should at least make the final.
Maria Sakkari is the biggest challenge in her quarter. The young Greek has a tough potential round two against Monica Niculescu though. Halep opens against Nicole Gibbs then faces the winner of Ying-Ying Duan vs Evgeniya Rodina.
We could end up with an all Romanian semi final match with Irina Begu the fourth seed here. She has a good draw too with Timea Babos the biggest challenge in the quarter finals. The Hungarian has a tougher path with Jana Cepelova or Magda Linette waiting in the second round
Bottom half:
Ostapenko is the highest seed in this half, but she has a possible clash with Sharapova in the semi finals. Will we get this mouth-watering match? Or will someone upset the odds?
Ostapenko has a tough opening round match against big serving Krystina Pliskova, the twin sister of Karolina. Camila Giorgi is also a dangerous floater to have in your section, and that is without mentioning her quarter final against Katerina Siniakova.
Shuai Zhang is the seed of the section, but all eyes will be on Sharapova. The Russian returns to action against Mihaela Buzarnescu and then could potentially face home crowd favourite Qiang Wang in the second round. There will be plenty for the Chinese fans to get excited about.
Caroline Wozniacki headlines Auckland this year with Julia Goerges as the second seed.
Top Half:
Wozniacki vs Agnieszka Radwanska is the stand out matchup when you look at this draw, and if all goes to plan then we will see that match in the semi finals. But there are a few potential spoilers in this section.
The Dane opens up against Madison Brengle first of all, and she could face the dangerous Mona Barthel in the quarter finals. Radwanska may face Lauren Davis in the last eight, but there should not be any major obstacles standing in their way.
Bottom half:
Goerges
Julia Goerges has a tough draw to the final with Barbora Strycova one of the few players capable of knocking the German out of the tournament.
Arguably the match of round one is Goerges’ opener against Monica Puig. The winner of this should be able to advance to the last eight to face the winner of Donna Vekic vs Kirsten Flipkens which is another stand out match in the opening round.
Strycova faces wildcard Sara Errani in the first round who is still on the comeback from a doping suspension. Yulia Putintseva is the other seed in this section, and she could be on a collision course with Strycova in the quarter finals.
The Porsche Tennis Grand Prix of 2017 is not only one of the biggest clay court tournaments on the calendar, it also marks the return of Maria Sharapova from her doping suspension. Here is a run down of the draw.
Top Quarter:
World number one Angelique Kerber returns to her home country to defend the title she won last year and once again the German does not have it easy. After a first round bye, Kerber will face a tough challenge in the form of Kristina Mladenovic or Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. Both players have had good starts to the year and are among the most dangerous unseeded players in the draw.
Garbine Muguruza once labelled clay as ‘her territory’. She looked formidable last year at Roland Garros, but minus that triumph, the Spaniard has looked rather mediocre. Can she rediscover her best form on the dirt? Muguruza opens against compatriot and former doubles partner Carla Suarez Navarro before meeting Elena Vesnina or Daria Kasatkina for a place in the last eight.
On clay, Muguruza is a much bigger force to deal with, but her recent form is not great. I do not see her making it past Kerber.
Prediction: Kerber def. Muguruza
Second Quarter:
Sharapova’s return draw sees the former world number one drawn in the second quarter and set to face Roberta Vinci in the first round. It will be interesting to see what response the Russian receives and how she will play in her first match in well over a year. I think she will be victorious against Vinci, who is not great on clay, but will find Agnieszka Radwanska too much to handle in round two.
The winner of that heavyweight clash is projected to play Dominika Cibulkova in the quarter finals. The Slovak has a bye into the second round where she will face highly touted youngster Ana Konjuh. Clay is not Cibulkova’s favourite surface, but the indoor conditions suit her game and she could advance from this quarter.
Prediction: Cibulkova def. Radwanska
Third Quarter:
Jo Konta (Tennis Atlantic)
After battling in Fed Cup over the weekend, Johanna Konta and Simona Halep are set to meet again in Stuttgart, providing they get through the opening rounds. Halep has the advantage of a bye in round one, then it will likely be Barbora Strycova waiting in round two. The Czech faces a qualifier in her the opening round match.
Konta also faces a qualifier in her opener. The Brit is not at her best on clay, but should have enough to get through to the second round where she faces either Anastasija Sevastova or Sam Stosur. Konta will likely scrape through that one, but will find Halep too much on clay, and the Romanian will progress to the last four.
Prediction: Halep def. Konta
Svetlana Kuznetsova (Photo: (C) 2014 Chris Levy @tennis_shots for TennisAtlantic.com)
Fourth Quarter:
Karolina Pliskova has arguably been the best player of the year so far, but the Czech enters a territory that has not been kind to her. Clay has proven to be her weakest surface, but has she made the required improvements for this season? After a bye in the opening round she faces a fellow big server in CoCo Vandeweghe in round two, another player who is not great on the dirt. Pliskova should make the quarter finals, but from there it could get tough.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former French Open Champion and feels well at home on the dirt. The Russian faces Kiki Bertens before likely playing the story of last year’s tournament, Laura Siegemund. The German made an incredible run to the final where she ultimately would come up short against Kerber. I can’t see the same thing this year though, and Kuznetsova should have enough to make it through this quarter.
Prediction: Kuznetsova def. Pliskova
Semi Finals:
Kerber def. Cibulkova
Kuznetsova def. Halep
Final:
Kerber def. Kuznetsova
The home crowd will have a say whenever the German players are involved, and I can see them spurring Kerber to retaining the Stuttgart title.
The WTA tour heads to Dubai for Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. With 470 points available for the winner, who will take the rankings climb this week?
After being launched as a men’s only tournament in 1993, it became a joint event in 2001 and one of the best stays on the tour. Justine Henin has the tournament record with four titles followed by Venus Williams with three. Other former champions include WTA superstars Lindsay Davenport, Elena Dementieva, Martina Hingis, Petra Kvitova, Amélie Mauresmo and Caroline Wozniacki.
The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Tier: Premier
Location: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money: $1,734,900
Date: February 15th- February 20th
Top four seeds who receive a BYE (Ranking)
1. Simona Halep (3)
2. Garbine Muguruza (5)
3. Carla Suarez Navarro (8)
4. Petra Kvitova (9)
Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska were both scheduled to compete but withdrew prior to the tournament.
Out of the all the opening round matches this one stands out the most. Ivanovic is coming in off the back of a disappointing loss to Roberta Vinci in St Petersburg whilst Gavrilova is playing for the first time since a good run in Melbourne.
The Aussie has won their only previous match in Rome last year coming through in three sets, so she has proven she is capable of upsetting the former world number one.
This one could go three sets and feature plenty of momentum shifts. Definitely one to look out for when the tournament kicks off.
Belinda Bencic (Photo: Christopher Levy @Tennis_Shots)
(5) Belinda Bencic vs Jelena Jankovic
Coming off yet another good run in St Petersburg, Bencic is one of the players to watch this year as she continues her climb towards the top of the game.
However the young Swiss star could be slightly fatigued in Dubai and faces a tough opener against the more experienced Jankovic.
Both play a more counter punching game and although Bencic is currently the better player, Jankovic always has the potential to reel back to the years where she made number one in the world.
The fifth seed leads the head to head 2-1 with them tied 1-1 on a hard court. Who will win the fourth meeting?
Andrea Petkovic, Life Member Eintracht USA
Camila Giorgi vs Andrea Petkovic:
With Petkovic vs Giorgi you have a classic style clash with the power of the Italian against the counter punching of the German.
Giorgi holds a 3-1 head to head lead over Petkovic despite being ranked 17 places below, including a victory in Dubai two years a go. The world number 23 won their last meeting however in Cincinnati last year.
Petkovic’s bad form and Giorgi’s general up and down style of play could make for a messy encounter but it is still one to watch as it could go either way.
Draw Analysis
Halep’s Quarter:
Halep will be looking to turn her season around after a poor start that saw her exit the Australian Open in the first round. The defending champion will be the tournament favourite, but there are some tricky roadblocks ahead. After an opening round Bye the Romanian will begin her tournament against the winner of Ivanovic and Gavrilova. It is a tough match for the out of form Halep that could see another early exit.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is the other seed in this section and has a tough opener of her own against Julia Goerges. Barbora Strycova will likely wait the winner in round two as the Czech has drawn a qualifier in her opening round. Kuznetsova vs Strycova could be a lengthy and dramatic affair that could go either way.
Suarez Navarro’s quarter:
Spain is well represented in the draw with their top two players both being seeded. Suarez Navarro, being the third seed, will receive an opening round BYE before meeting the winner of Caroline Garcia vs Anna Schmiedlova. Two different propositions with Garcia being the aggressor and Schmiedlova being a more defensive minded player. The Frenchwoman will be full of confidence after her Fed Cup exploits.
Bencic will be another player that comes into Dubai in good form after a good run in St Petersburg, but she faces a tough first rounder against Jankovic. It won’t get much easier in round two wither with Petkovic or Giorgi waiting in the wings. It’s a tough draw for the Swiss and with fatigue possibly a factor, don’t be surprised to see an upset.
Kvitova’s quarter:
The Czech took a wildcard into the tournament in order to gain some momentum after her ranking fell to ninth in the world. The two time Grand Slam champion has the extra time to prepare due to her seeding and will therefore meet the winner of Madison Brengle vs Ekaterina Makarova in round two. Makarova could be a very tricky test in a battle of the lefties.
Vinci, like Bencic, will come into Dubai off the back of a good run in St Petersburg. The Italian faces a qualifier in round one before meeting compatriot and former doubles partner Sara Errani in round two. Who will win the battle of the former doubles champions?
Muguruza’s quarter:
Muguruza has also not enjoyed the best start to 2015 and has struggled to find her best form whilst struggling with a foot injury. The Spaniard will open her tournament in round two against either a qualifier or Elina Svitolina in round two. A match against the Ukrainian will be an interesting one between two of the tour’s best young talents.
Like Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova took a wildcard into the event and might fancy her chances at taking the title. The Czech will have a big serving battle against Coco Vandeweghe before meeting the winner of Kristina Mladenovic vs Lesia Tsurenko.
2015 ATP Sydney and Auckland Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The week before the Aussie Open, the final ATP tuneups will take place at 250 level events in Sydney and Auckland, and both hard court tournaments are up for grabs with a lot of rising players and second tier names gunning for ATP ranking points and a coveted ATP title, additionally, Nick Kyrgios, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nicolas Almagro, Ernests Gulbis, and more are making their 2015 debuts.
ATP Sydney
2015 ATP Sydney Preview
Apia International Sydney
ATP World Tour 250*
Sydney, Australia
January 12-January 17, 2015
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses) 1: Fabio Fognini (19)
2: David Goffin (22)
3: Philipp Kohlschreiber (24)
4: Julien Benneteau (25)
A very balanced field in Sydney this week, none of the seeds are super formidable, so the unseeded players have great chances at putting up good results.
Juan Martin Del Potro is making (yet another) long awaited return in Sydney, hoping that his wrists and all his over physical ailments are sorted out as he begins his effort to return to the top 10 and become a force on the ATP tour again. The tennis world has missed the tower of Tandil, and he has a winnable opening match against Sergiy Stakhovsky, Stako was crushed by Novak Djokovic after beating a no name wild card in Doha, and though he has had flashes of playing above his ranking, he’s a journeyman. It’s also worth noting JMDP is the defending champion, not that that really means much right now. This is an incredibly difficult match to predict but I have Del Po winning on a coin flip.
(6)Pablo Cuevas vs. Nicolas Almagro
Nicolas Almagro is another top player making his return from injury this week, he hasn’t played since the clay court season last year and he opens with dirtballer Pablo Cuevas, who is currently on a nine match win streak, though all those wins came on clay. Almagro got a couple of matches in at the Abu Dhabi exo, so he won’t be entirely rusty, and given this is hard courts, I have him advancing after shaking off some rust.
Andreas Seppi vs. Vasek Pospisil
Seppi found form and snuck into the semis in Doha, though he didn’t face any highly ranked opponents there while Pospisil is making his 2015 debut in Sydney. He went 19-23 in 2014 with an ATP semi and an ATP final as his best results. That said he spent part of the season hampered by a back injury, and his form picked up late in the year, he’s clearly a capable talent, and I feel Seppi may be somewhat fatigued going into this match, with that in mind, I have Pospisil evening up the h2h at 2-2 and winning this match. The hard courts in Sydney should suit the Canadian.
Nick Kyrgios vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Breakthrough star Nick Kyrgios will be making his home soil debut in Sydney against Hopman cup champion Jerzy Janowicz in a highly anticipated contest. Kyrgios has been hampered by a lingering shoulder injury that forced him to skip the Hopman cup, and his physical condition has question marks here, but that said the crowd will be behind him, and he always seems to play his best tennis when the bright lights are on. Kyrgios is favored and the Wimbledon quarterfinalist will have every chance of getting a win. That said, Janowicz is trying to reboot his results in 2015, after a relatively poor 2014, and he won’t roll over lightly, this is a hard match to pick, but I’m favoring the experienced Janowicz, as Kyrgios will likely need more time to adjust than he will.
Top seed Fabio Fognini is in awful form, he clowned around yet again in the Hopman Cup, and he finished 2014 in a slump as well. I have Fognini crashing out against Stakhovsky/Del Potro in his first match, and potentially we could see a Del Potro vs. Almagro quarterfinal in a battle of players returning to the tour. Standing in Almagro’s way, assuming he beats Cuevas, is a qualifier or Denis Istomin, Istomin didn’t do anything special in Doha as he was crushed by Tomas Berdych, but he is 3-0 in his career against Almagro, and that with the rust factor perhaps makes him a slight favorite to reach the quarters and meet Del Potro/Stakhovsky/Fognini. Given the rust factor I have Istomin through to the semis over Del Potro, but it’s anyone guess who will make the semis quite honestly.
Julian Benneteau fell to Thanasi Kokkinakis in the opening round of Brisbane, his poor showing means it appears he is likely to go against the Seppi/Pospisil winner, and that’s the result I have as well. Kyrgios/Janowicz are likely to await Pospisil/Seppi in the quarterfinals, Benjamin Becker, a grinder who fell to Simone Bolelli in Doha, is also in this section and opens with Leo Mayer, who much prefers clay. I have Pospisil over Janowicz in the quarterfinals in this section, JJ may be somewhat fatigued from the Hopman and they have never met before, but again this a very hard section to predict this early in the season with so few matches to judge players by.
Chennai semifinalist David Goffin has a great chance this week to do well, but he’ll need to defeat the dangerous shotmaker Simone Bolelli in round 2, assuming Bolelli defeats the struggling Marinko Matosevic in round 1. If Goffin beats Bolelli/Matosevic, Martin Klizan is likely to await in the quarters. Goffin has one h2h victory against Klizan at a challenger and the Slovak made the quarters in Brisbane, with wins over Alex Dolgopolov and Jurgen Melzer before losing to Grigor Dimitrov. Klizan-Goffin should be a great match as long as Klizan beats a qualifier and Pablo Andujar/Qualifier. It’s hard to predict but I have a hunch Klizan will overpower Goffin and reach the semis.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, who lost his opening match in Doha, will open with former Sydney champ Bernard Tomic or a qualifier, Tomic beat Sam Querrey and Thanasi Kokkinakis in Brisbane and made the quarterfinals, and with Kohli out of form, while Tomic will be motivated on home soil, the Aussie should advance to the quarters. He’s likely to face a big server at that stage, Gilles Muller, a Chennai quarterfinalist, faces Sam Groth, a Brisbane quarterfinalist, in the opening round, expect a lot of aces in that one and I have Muller facing Sam Querrey in round 2. Querrey is 3-1 in his career against his first round opponent Jeremy Chardy and is looking to bounce back from an early loss in Brisbane. Chardy lost to Grigor Dimitrov in round 2 of Brisbane. I have Muller over Querrey for a spot in the quarters, and then Tomic reaching the semis by defeating Muller.
Dark Horse: Vasek Pospisil
I have the Canadian number two taking the title this week, given how up in the air this tournament is. He has basically no points to defend after the Australian Open, until the Fall, given he struggled at that point last season, and will be looking to pad his ranking at events like this. I feel he’s due for his maiden ATP title.
Predictions
Semis: Pospisil d. Istomin
Klizan d. Tomic
Istomin has a h2h win against Vashy but I feel the Canadian is a better player right now, Klizan beat Tomic last year on clay, and again I feel like his form is better than the Aussie.
Heineken Open
ATP World Tour 250
Auckland, New Zealand
January 12-January 17, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
*1: David Ferrer (10) 2: Ernests Gulbis (13) 3: Roberto Bautista Agut (15) 4: Kevin Anderson (16)
*5: Tommy Robredo (17)
*Ferrer withdrew and Robredo takes over his seedline as the technical five but the proper number 1 seed.
Auckland had a strong field lined up but Doha champ Ferrer, along with defending champ John Isner, and the exciting Gael Monfils all pulled out before the start of the tournament, making this week a rather slim week on the ATP tour in terms of big names. Still, Auckland has plenty of second tier talent in the tournament field.
A pair of rising players will duel under the Auckland sun in this one. Thiem is opening his 2015 season, which will be his first as a regular top 40 ATP player, in New Zealand, while Struff comes off recording a solid victory over Philipp Kohlschreiber in Doha. He fell to Dustin Brown in the next round, which to some extent shows his inconsistency but the talent is there for both players in this matchup they just need to put it all together to be successful. Thiem is favored but Struff will have his chance, and this matchup is harder to predict than many expect, that said I favor Thiem in 3 sets.
Top Half:
Tommy Robredo now headlines the top of the draw, the Spaniard should face limited opposition in route to the quarterfinals, as his draw features a qualifier or Kiwi wildcard Michael Venus in round 2, and then most likely Rendy Lu, a quarterfinalist in Chennai, in the quarters. Lu opens with Juan Monaco, who won the doubles title in Doha with Nadal but has struggled mightily in singles for quite a while, and then is slated to face the winner of Albert Ramos/Paolo Lorenzi, who would both prefer to be playing on clay. Ramos can occasionally put together a decent showing but Lu should get through to the quarters as well, as he looks to defend his final points from last year. Robredo is 3-1 against Lu in his career and beat him last year but I’m going with Lu to make the semis in an upset, he has played well in Auckland before, he will clearly be motivated, and he has form going in, unlike Robredo who made three ATP finals last year, but failed to win one.
Roberto Bautista Agut, a semifinalist in Chennai, opens with Adrian Mannarino or Federico Delbonis in round 2, given Mannarino is the more comfortable hard court player and comes off a challenger semifinal showing on hard courts, he should get to round 2, but RBA is superior in that matchup and the Spaniard is on track for the quarterfinals. In the quarters, Santiago Giraldo is his most likely opponent, Santi had a great season by his normal standards in 2014 as he compiled a 32-27 overall record with an ATP final, three semis and a Masters quarterfinal as his best results. The shotmaking Colombian will face a qualifier, then a qualifier or Kiwi wild card Jose Statham in round 2. RBA beat Giraldo twice last year in straight sets, and he most likely will do so again, but if this matchup comes to fruition it will still be worth watching given the talented shotmaking and aggressive approaches of both players.
Bottom Half:
Ernests Gulbis opens his 2015 season in Auckland, the charismatic Latvian was 41-21 in 2014 with two ATP titles and a grand slam semi at the French as his best results, he performed well across surfaces, and that is why he’s now a regular top 15 player. Gulbis shouldn’t drop a set before the quarterfinals given his opposition is a qualifier or Thomaz Bellucci, a formerly top player who much prefers clay and similar to Monaco hasn’t put up a big result for quite some time now. His opposition in the quarters is most likely to be Donald Young or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, GGL beat Young twice last year, and he comes off a decent run of form as he won a pair of matches and reached the quarters in Chennai. Garcia-Lopez will need to beat young Argentine dirtballer Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, and Young has a qualifier as his round one opposition. Young was 18-21 at the ATP level last year with one ATP semi as his best result. I see a Gulbis vs. Garcia-Lopez quarterfinal with Gulbis advancing. The h2h favors Ernie 2-1 but they haven’t met since 2013.
Kevin Anderson appears to be struggling as he was dumped by qualifier Lukasz Kubot in his opening match in Brisbane. He will face the Struff/Thiem winner, and if it is Thiem, he does have a 2-0 h2h with both matches taking place last season working in his favor. As a result, even though I don’t feel particularly confident I have Anderson through the quarters, with Thiem/Struff also having a great shot at posting the same result. The section above this one is the best in the draw, wild card Borna Coric, who beat Robin Haase in Chennai, will face Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, and I have the youngster earning another ATP win given PCB much prefers clay. Steve Johnson, who played Kei Nishikori tough in Brisbane and also won a match there, will face off with Portugese number one Joao Sousa, the American should advance and face off with Coric in a battle of rising young players. Coric should test Johnson, but I feel he’s more battle tested, and his experience at the ATP level will win him the day, even if Coric has more natural talent and potential. This is a tough section with a lot of rising talent (Thiem/Struff/Johnson/Coric), and in my own bracket I have Johnson over Anderson (1-1 h2h in 2014) to reach the semifinals.
Anyone from that section full of rising talent I previewed above can be a dark horse this week, with the non-seeded Thiem, similar to the non-seeded Coric, getting the actual designation this week. I’m going with Thiem because he has more experience than Coric and he’s done well in ATP tournaments before (finalist in Kitzbuhel). If he can get past Struff, and reverse his poor h2h record against Anderson, which is entirely doable, he will have a winnable quarterfinal with Johnson or Coric, and a potential semifinal with his former mentor Gulbis. Ernie and Dominic know each other well and share coaching teams, so it would almost be a battle of brotherly love, and given Gulbis can be inconsistent, that’s also a winnable match in a very open Auckland draw.
Predictions
Semis: Bautista Agut d. Lu
Johnson d. Gulbis
RBA just beat Lu in a quality quarterfinal contest in Chennai, and the result should be the same (I also favor him against Robredo). Gulbis would still likely be favored to make the final, but Johnson is 2-0 in his career against him with both wins coming on hard court. The American seems very motivated and has a great chance to at least reach his first ATP final, and potentially win his first ATP title this week in Auckland.
Final: Bautista Agut d. Johnson
RBA beat Johnson three times last year, and that’s why I have him down as the winner this week, there are at least six different players who could take the title this week depending on form and motivation and Bautista is my selection.
2015 ATP Doha and Chennai Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Two other events in Qatar and India will be part of the ATP World Tour’s 2015 debut, both are 250 level events on hard courts as the worlds best players prepare for the Australian Open
ATP Doha
2015 ATP Doha Preview
Qatar ExxonMobil Open ATP World Tour 250 Doha, Qatar January 5-January 11, 2015
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1) 2: Rafael Nadal (3) 3: Tomas Berdych (7) 4: David Ferrer (10)
Doha again features a stacked field of four top 10 players, and all the seeds ranked in the top 30 in the world.
Gabashvili shocked Verdasco at the Aussie Open last year and the Spaniard will be looking to avenge that loss in the opening round of Doha. Gabashvili reached a career high ranking in 2014 at 52 in the world but he still finished a sub .500 19-25 on the season at the ATP level with his best results being a trio of ATP quarterfinals. Gaba has always been a journeyman and is far less accomplished than Verdasco who went 26-20 on the year with one ATP title and a pair of ATP semifinals his most notable results in 2014. Even with that h2h upset, Verdasco is favored to advance and I expect him to do so.
(5)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Kohli finished the year 37-25 with one ATP title in 2014. It wasn’t his best season on tour, but the German veteran held his own and finished the year in the top 25 yet again. Struff broke into the top 50 for part of 2014, and the German who is seven years younger than his countryman reached three ATP semifinals in 2014. Struff is talented across surfaces, but has yet to reach the consistency level needed to keep himself as a full time competitor on the main tour. He will have a shot at upsetting Kohli here, and this is a toss-up match for me.
Simone Bolelli vs. Benjamin Becker
Bolelli had a resurgent season in 2014, finishing up in the top 60, which was powered by four challenger titles. The Italian found himself last season after starting the year outside the top 300 and is back to being a full time ATP competitor. Becker is another veteran who had a resurgent season in 2014. He peaked at a career high of 35 in the world, and finished ranked inside the top 40. He went 27-26 at the ATP level last year reaching an ATP final and two ATP semifinals. He finished the year strong with semis in Tokyo and a trio of quarterfinal appearances in Kuala Lumpur, Basel, and Vienna. The two veterans have never met, and this match could go either way. I’m picking the powerful ball striker Becker myself.
Top Half:
Doha paid big bucks to convince the world number one Djokovic to start his 2015 ATP campaign off in the Middle Eastern nation. Novak will be making his debut in Qatar and faces his countryman Dusan Lajovic first up. Given Lajovic and Novak are Davis Cup teammates, they should be very familiar with each others games. I don’t expect the top Serb to have any trouble with his countryman, and he also should ease past Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 2, assuming Stako avoids a shock defeat to Qatari wild card Jabor Mohammed Ali Mutawa, who doesn’t even have an ATP ranking. In the quarters, Novak should cruise past the big serving Ivo Karlovic, with the hard hitting Lukas Rosol, or the crafty veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who opens with a qualifier, also options to reach the quarters. Youzhny had a very poor 2014 that saw him drop out of the top 40 with an 18-23 record. Rosol peaked inside the top 30 in 2014 but finished the year just 1-9, Karlovic has beaten him twice before including last fall in Basel. Karlovic and Djokovic haven’t met since 2008, and surprisingly Karlovic has won both hard court meetings, but that was quite some time ago.
David Ferrer had a down season in 2014, though he still won an ATP title and finished 54-24 on the season. Ferrer is in danger of dropping out of the top 10 for the first time in almost five years. At 32 he may be slowing down but I still expect the hard working Spaniard to beat a qualifier, and then Verdasco or Gabashvili. He has won the last seven meetings against Verdasco including both meetings in the fall of 2014 without dropping a set. He was upset by Gabashvili on clay last year but that would once again be a very unlikely result. Look for a Ferrer vs. Kohlschreiber or Struff quarterfinal, as one of the Germans just needs to be the exciting but inconsistent Dustin Brown, or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 2. Ferrer is 6-0 against Kohli since 2009, so I tip him to reach the semis, Struff could also challenge but Ferrer would have to be favored.
Bottom Half:
2014 Doha champ Rafa Nadal will be defending his title with the cloud of his appendix surgery in the off-season hanging over him. Nadal was dominated by Andy Murray in the Abu Dhabi exhibition a couple of days ago, looking to be in very poor form, but still he won’t have to face an opponent the caliber of Murray in his route to the semifinals. He opens against a qualifier, then will face Ivan Dodig or wild card Mohamed Safwat of Egypt in round 2, Dodig is looking to get himself back to a consistent ATP level, but it is still unlikely he has enough game to get past even a rusty Nadal. In the quarterfinals, the toughest opponent for Nadal would be either 8 seed Leo Mayer, who plays his best on clay, or the Italian veteran Andreas Seppi who declined in 2014, posting a sub .500 24-30 record. Joao Souza, another clay courter, and Tunisian wild card Malek Jaziri are also options. Jaziri plays some of his most inspired tennis when in the Middle East, but he’s still a career journeyman. Look for Mayer, who had a breakthrough 2014, and reached the top 30 in the rankings with an ATP title and a 28-20 record, to reach the quarterfinals before falling to Nadal who is 4-0 in his career against him.
Tomas Berdych, who won an exhibition in Thailand to start off his 2015, opens with Denis Istomin in round 1. Istomin is a tough opponent for the number 3 seed in a 250 level event, but that said Berdych is 3-0 in his career against the Uzbek number one, and has a superior skillset, so he should advance. Look for Berdy to also cruise past Juan Monaco or a qualifier in round 2, before facing off with Bolelli/Becker or Richard Gasquet/Pablo Andujar in the quarterfinals. Gasquet fell from the top 20 in 2014, while Andujar finished inside the top 45 and took an ATP title. I expect the 2013 Doha champion Gasquet to defeat Andujar. Bolelli or Becker could give him trouble, but he’s 5-0 in his career against Bolelli, and 2-0 against Becker, so past results are very much in his favor. Berdych won his only meeting against Gasquet in 2014, but they have split their last four hard court meetings 2-2. Given Berdych performed better last year, and recently, I expect the Czech to get through to the semifinals.
Becker will have a tough path if he is going to put up a good result to start the year in Doha, given his first match is against Bolelli, who could be a dark horse in his own right, and then Gasuet/Andujar and almost certainly Berdych. That said if he can pull off three big wins, he would be in the semis against Nadal or a weaker opponent with a punchers chance to reach the final. I’d also consider JL Struff a dark horse this week.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Ferrer
Berdych d. Nadal
Djokovic has won seven consecutive meetings against Ferrer, including both meetings last year, and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t win the matchup again.
Berdych hasn’t beaten Nadal since 2006, and has been dominated by the Spaniard in almost every head to head meeting, that said I have a hunch Rafa still has some ailments and may not even want to play all the way through to the final.
Final: Djokovic d. Berdych
Djokovic beat Berdych both times last year and the total set score in those meetings was 24-6, thus Novak has to be a heavy favorite to win the Doha title in his debut.
ATP Chennai
2015 ATP Chennai Preview
Aircel Chennai Open
ATP World Tour 250
Chennai, India
January 5-January 11, 2015
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4) 2: Feliciano Lopez (14) 3: Roberto Bautista Agut (15) 4: David Goffin (22)
Three top 20 players highlight the Chennai field, as all of the seeds are ranked within the top 50 in the world. Chennai isn’t near as star studded as the other two events on tour this week, but it’s far from a weak tournament.
First Round matchups to watch:
Borna Coric vs. Robin Haase
The 18 year old Coric reached the top 100 in 2014 and after primarily posting great results on the challenger tour, he qualified for the US Open, reaching the second round, and upset Ernests Gulbis and Rafael Nadal in Basel, en route to the semifinals. Haase finished 2014 strong with a challenger title, but he still finished ranked outside the top 80, and Coric will have a great shot at an upset win over an ATP regular. The match could go either way but I’m going with Coric to rise to the challenge and get himself to round 2.
Peter Gojowczyk vs. Alejandro Falla
Falla beat Gojowczyk in Halle last year, but the 31 year old Colombian appears to be in a decline as he finished 2014 ranked outside the top 80, and went just 11-17 at the ATP level. Gojo meanwhile is rising, at 25, he’s at a career high ranking of 79 and he will be looking to play more ATP main draw level matches in 2015. The German won 2 challenger titles, posted an ATP semifinal in Doha, and qualified for the USO and AO. His best results have been on hard courts, and he appears poised for a breakthrough. I favor him to dispatch the Colombian veteran to reach round 2.
Tatsuma Ito vs. (WC)Ramkumar Ramanathan
The 20 year old Indian Ramanathan, who (almost) exclusively played challengers and futures in 2014, shocked the tennis world last year by qualifying in Chennai and defeating his higher ranked, and more accomplished countryman Somdev Devvarman to reach the second round. This year he gets a wild card, and he’ll have another chance to surprise against Tatsuma Ito, who is ranked just inside the top 100. Ito finished the year with a challenger final and he’s had most of his success at that level. Ito shocked Stan Wawrinka in Tokyo last year, for the best win of his career, but he rarely plays up to that level, I expect Ito win but Ramanathan will certainly have the crowd behind him.
Defending and two time champ Stan Wawrinka will take the first step to trying to retaining his top 5 ranking in Chennai, where he will start his 2015 campaign after a breakthrough 2014 that saw him win a Grand Slam and a Masters Title, along with reach the top 5 for the first time in his career. He will have a target on his back, most likely against Coric, in round 2, but barring another shocking upset, he should get through to the quarterfinals where 8 seed Gilles Muller, or perhaps Igor Sijsling/Edouard Roger-Vasselin/Elias Ymer, a wild card, await. Muller had a resurgent 2014 that saw him return to the top 50 after winning five challenger titles. Sijsling and ERV had pedestrian years in 2014, and Ymer has yet to emerge, even though he’s a young talent, so I expect a Wawrinka over Muller quarterfinal. ERV is a defending finalist, and he faced Wawrinka in that final, he has a lot of points to defend this week.
David Goffin reached the top 25 for the first time in his career in 2014, going on an incredible tear in the second half of the season to finish the year 25-15 with two ATP titles. He also reached the final in Basel and won four challenger titles. Goffin won’t be near as much of an underdog this season, and will be taking on a full time ATP schedule one would expect. His first match should be a win against a qualifier or Ricardas Berankis, a formerly promising young star who has yet to live up to his potential. After that, I expect Goffin to cruise to the semis, whether he faces fellow young gun Jiri Vesely, who opens with a qualifier, or Marcel Granollers/Andreas Haider-Maurer. Granollers went just 19-28 at the ATP level last year, and along with AHM, he plays his best tennis on clay. Vesely is at a career high ranking of 66, and went 16-17 at the ATP level last year. The 21 year old hasn’t done as well for himself as Goffin has though so I expect the Belgian to win their first career meeting.
Feliciano Lopez, burst into the top 15 in 2014, and at 32 years old, going on 33, he posted a 39-26 record with 1 ATP title, an ATP final and two Masters semifinals. The left handed Spaniard, whose tennis lived up to his popular appearance in 2014, will open against Lukas Lacko, or a qualifier in round 1, and I expect him to get through to the quarters and dispatch most likely Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, the five seed, at that stage. GGL will need to beat the Ramanathan/Ito winner, along with a qualifier in round 1. GGL finished 25-26 in 2014, with an ATP title but he slumped hard at the end of the year, finishing 0-5 after the US Open. He has the ability to play skillful, and exciting tennis, but he struggles with consistency. He should be good enough to win his first couple of matches but I favor Lopez to reach the semis.
Roberto Bautista Agut broke through to the top 15 in 2014, and will now be gunning for the top 10 in 2015. He went 45-23 with 2 ATP titles last year and performed well across surfaces. He’s a former finalist in Chennai and assuming he can beat Gojowczyk/Falla for a winning start in 2015, he should be able to ease through to a semifinal against Lopez by defeating Rendy Lu, the six seed. Lu opens with Indian favorite Somdev Devvarman, a wild card, and assuming he wins, will face the Pablo Carreno Busta/Alejandro Gonzalez winner.
Coric has the talent to make a breakthrough, and if Wawrinka wilts under the pressure of expectations, as happened at times last year, he could pull off another top 5 upset. If he does that, Goffin, who he lost to in Basel, would be a tough semifinal opponent (and that’s if he wins the quarterfinal match), but even the semis would be a great result for the teenager.
Predictions
Semis: Goffin d. Wawrinka
Bautista Agut d. Lopez
I’m projecting an upset in the semifinals, as I feel Goffin will shock Wawrinka, it’s just a hunch but I have a feeling Stan won’t be able to live up to expectations as the biggest star at this tournament, while Goffin will have a less stressful tournament.
Lopez beat RBA in Toronto last year, but I feel RBA is a slightly better player, and given he’s had success in Chennai before, I put him through to the final my bracket.
Final: Bautista Agut d. Goffin
Any of the top four seeds could take the title in Chennai, but I’m going with RBA because he’s 2-0 in his career against Goffin, and has the forehand to deal with the crafty Belgian. Goffin is also likely to be more fatigued at this stage, and no matter who wins, Chennai looks to be a very interesting way to start off the 2015 season.
2015 ATP Brisbane Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
2015 ATP Brisbane Preview
The first ATP event of 2015 will once again be the Brisbane 250 tournament on hard courts in Brisbane, Australia. The opening tournament of the Emirates Australian Open series features a strong field that includes 3 top 10 players. Here is a preview of all the action on the men’s side of the joint ATP/WTA event. Niall Clarke has a preview of the WTA side of the tournament coming up.
ATP Brisbane
Brisbane International presented by Suncorp ATP World Tour 250* Brisbane, Australia January 4-January 11, 2015
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Kei Nishikori (5)
3: Milos Raonic (8)
4: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
All eight seeds are top 25 players, as Brisbane is a loaded 250 level event.
First Round matchups to watch:
Martin Klizan vs. Jurgen Melzer
Martin Klizan had a great 2014 season that saw him finish the year back in the top 40, the Slovak won an ATP title, and went 25-14 overall at the ATP level. He finished the year with a notable victory over Rafa Nadal to reach the semis in Beijing, and he also had a top 10 win over Kei Nishikori in 2014. The powerful ball striker will take on the declined veteran Melzer for the first time, Melzer fell out of the top 100 in 2014, and only reached one ATP semi, and one ATP quarterfinal all year. The former world number 8 is still a tactically wise lefty who is a tough out in matches, but at 33, this may well be his last season on tour if his results don’t pick up. Expect Klizan to advance as he is a player on the rise.
Sam Groth vs. Lleyton Hewitt
The 27 year old Groth cemented himself as a top 100 player in 2014, and he will be defending quarterfinal points in Brisbane. Groth won a challenger title, reached a few challenger finals and an ATP semifinal in 2014, playing a mix of ATP and challenger level matches. He will take on a player who has always absorbed big serving pace well in the legendary counterpuncher Lleyton Hewitt, who remains in the ATP top 50 at almost 34 years of age. Hewitt is defending his Brisbane title this week, and he won two ATP titles in 2014, in route to a positive 20-16 record on tour. Hewitt and Groth have never played before, and we’ll see what kind of shape Hewitt is in to start the season, that said he usually get himself hyped to play on home soil, and he should be able to fend off Groth, perhaps in a pair of tiebreaks.
Julien Benneteau remains in the hunt for an elusive first ATP title, as the French veteran, who at the age of 33 remains at a career high ranking of 25 will start off his season in Brisbane against the young gun Aussie wild card Kokkinakis. Benneteau went 26-24 in 2014 with one ATP final, a challenger title, and some great results at the Masters level including a semifinal appearance in Cincy and a pair of quarterfinals in Shanghai and Indian Wells. Kokkinakis currently sits at 150 in the world, and the 18 year old will be looking to have a breakthrough season, much like his countryman Nick Kyrgios had in 2014. Kokkinakis primarily played on the challenger tour last year, but did win a couple of ATP main draw matches and his lanky game is clearly improving onto what should be bigger and better stages in 2015. Benneteau will be favored but I’d give Kokkinakis a really good chance to grab a win over a veteran ATP competitor on home soil.
Bernard Tomic vs. Sam Querrey
Bernard Tomic enters 2015 claiming to have a renewed focus and commitment to his tennis as he seeks to reach his potential after years of underachieving. He’s still just 22 and has time to make his move into the tennis elite. He won an ATP title last year, along with reaching a final and a semifinal in route to a 17-15 record at the ATP level. He will face the American Querrey who he has beaten twice before, once on grass in 2013, and once on hard courts in 2012. Querrey returned to the top 40 after a solid 2014 that saw finish 28-21 at the ATP level. Sam found success on the challenger circuit, winning 3 consecutive ATP challenger titles, and that in particular seemed to improve his confidence last season. Now back at the ATP level on a full time basis in 2015, the competition will be stiffer and he will need to win matches like this one against Tomic to maintain, and perhaps improve upon his current ranking. This is a toss-up match for me between a pair of players who can play great tennis, or totally fall apart, depending on their emotions.
Top Half:
Last year’s finalist Roger Federer will be seeking to claim yet another ATP title to add to his illustrious resume, the 33 year old Swiss will be mounting a renewed challenge for the number one ranking in 2015 after winning 5 titles and going an incredible 73-12 last season. Federer will open his 2015 campaign against a qualifier or Aussie wildcard John Millman, who is more talented than his current ranking of 156 would suggest. That said, I fully expect to see a Federer vs. Gilles Simon quarterfinal matchup. Simon will open with Aussie wild card James Duckworth who he has a 1-0 h2h record with. After the challenger level Duckworth, Simon should face the quick Finnish veteran Jarkko Nieminen who has a history of playing well in Australia. Nieminen opens with a qualifier, and is 2-3 in his career against Simon. Simon had an inconsistent 2014, but he had some good results at the end of last season (Shanghai final, Tokyo semis) and is most likely to reach the quarterfinals in this section. Barring a monumental upset, Federer should defeat Simon for the fifth time in a row and reach the semifinals. Last year Federer dispatched Simon in a pair of tiebreaks in the Shanghai final.
Former Brisbane finalist Grigor Dimitrov is looking to cement himself in the top 10 in 2015. Dimitrov will open with Jeremy Chardy or Andrey Golubev for the opening match of his season. Chardy, who has the game to score big wins from time to time, may give Dimitrov a test, but the Bulgarian should make the quarterfinals to face off with most likely either Klizan or 7 seed Alex Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov is a former Brisbane finalist, and he opens with Carlos Berlocq who is more comfortable on clay. Dolgo had a solid 2014 until he suffered a knee injury, and we’ll see what sort of physical shape he is in for the first part of 2015. Klizan vs. Dolgo looks to be a great second round matchup, and I could see either one reaching the quarterfinals. That said, Klizan was more consistent late in 2014, and I’m going with him over a talented but erratic Dolgo who wasn’t the same in 2014 since injuring his knee. Look for Klizan (or Dolgo) to test Dimitrov as well but Dimitrov should prevail and reach the semis, he’s 2-1 in his career against Dolgo including a win at Wimbledon last year, he has never played Klizan.
Kei Nishikori has reached the semis for two straight years in Brisbane and he reached the top 5 for the first time in his career last season. He won 4 ATP titles last year, and reached a Masters and a slam final, both for the first time in his career. He will open against Aussie Marinko Matosevic, or American Steve Johnson. He beat Johnson once last year on grass, and beat Matosevic three times last year, to extend his h2h record against him to 5-0 in his career. I expect a healthy and motivated Nishikori to get himself to the quarters, and then take out one of Benneteau/Kokkinakis/Tomic/Querrey in the quarters. All of those opponents would be challenging, in a stacked section of the draw but Nishikori should handle any of them, I favor Tomic to get through to the quarterfinals on home soil, given he tends to play his best in January during the AO series.
Milos Raonic cemented himself as a top 10 player in 2014 by playing consistent, reliable tennis. He only won one title, but he reached two finals, including a Masters final and reached the quarterfinals or better in all but one Masters 1000 level event. The Canadian number one will open with a qualifier or Mikhail Kukushkin, and after that is likely to face either Hewitt, or 5 seed Kevin Anderson, with Groth, or a qualifier also options. Anderson and Hewitt have split h2h meetings, but Anderson won the most recent one last season, he plays a similar gamestyle to Groth, but his is more well rounded and developed. It’s hard to go against Hewitt in Australia, but I’m favoring a Raonic vs. Anderson quarterfinal with Raonic advancing. Both guys player a similar serve and forehand heavy style, but Raonic does it better so he should get himself through to the semis.
There are other dark horse options like Tomic, Hewitt, Simon, and Johnson but if anyone is going to prevent the semifinals from featuring all seeded players it is most likely to be Klizan, who has shown the ability to win big matches and has the game to trouble Dimitrov if he can get past Melzer and Dolgo. A semifinal to open the season would be a big boost for Klizan.
Predictions
Semis: Federer d. Dimitrov Nishikori d. Raonic
Federer has won both h2h meetings, last season and the year before, indoors in Basel, against Dimitrov, and he has done so without dropping a set. Though Dimitrov is improving, they play similar tennis and Federer does it at a normally superior level, so barring a shock, Fed should advance to the final.
Nishikori and Raonic have a budding rivalry at this point, they met four times last year, with Nishikori going 3-1 in those meetings, including two great matches in the Tokyo final and US Open round of 16. Raonic is a good player but Nishikori returns well enough, along with being able to generate enough power to stay on the court with the Canadian and he seems to have the matchup edge, thus I expect to see him in the final.
Final: Nishikori d. Federer
Federer is 3-2 overall against Nishikori and comfortably defeated him in their last two meetings, including at the World Tour Finals. That said, Nishikori won the only outdoor hard court meeting in Miami, and I’m going with a judgment call favoring the younger Nishikori to pull this off and show he’s going to be challenging for big four status in 2015. The Brisbane final is likely to be excellent given the strength of the field and the relative balance of the draw.
2013 ATP London, Halle Previews and Predictions Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
The dirt season is now over and tennis will return to the ornate lawns of Queen’s Club and the Gerry Weber Open, bringing faster tennis and more volleying.
ATP London (Queen’s Club)
AEGON Championships
ATP World Tour 250
June 10-June 16, 2013
Prize money: € 779,665
The Big Bracket 250 and joint WTA event brings tennis back to London.
Top 8 seeds (who all receive 1st round byes)
1: Andy Murray
2: Tomas Berdych
3: Juan Martin Del Potro
4: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
5: Marin Cilic
6: Sam Querrey
7: Alex Dolgopolov
8: Kevin Anderson
1st round matchups to watch:
Bernard Tomic vs. Benjamin Becker
Tomic is in dire straits right now but he still has talent and he still has skill on grass. Becker is a journeyman, but he is in the finals of Nottingham and is solid at trying to wear guys down.Have to say Becker is the favorite but this should be a quality match.
Kenny De Schepper vs. Rajeev Ram
De Schepper is a rising young Frenchman who relies on power and a big serve. Ram is of course the lanky American serve and volleyer who does his best work on grass, thus making this a great clash of styles. De Schepper comes off semis in the Nottingham challenger while Ram lost early, thus he should have a bit of an edge.
(13) Jarkko Nieminen vs. Ryan Harrison
First meeting between the pair: Nieminen has had a solid year and is good on all surfaces, while Harrison is working his way back to success but lost in the opening round of the Nottingham grass court challenger this week. Expect quality ball striking and a lot of fast movement.
Top Half:
Andy Murray will be able to occupy his time with something besides twittering once again. He’ll start with Nicolas Mahut or Rhyne Williams and if he gets Mahut again, it would be a rematch of a match he lost at this very event last year. After that, Murray should meet Marinko Matosevic or Michael Llodra. A qualifier and Pablo Andujar are also options in a winnable but challenging section.
The struggling Alex Dolgopolov will play Santiago Giraldo or Jesse Levine, and the winner could get Lukas Rosol, who comes off a clay challenger. A qualifier and the Becker/Tomic winner are all options in this open section.
RG semifinalist Tsonga, who was very disappointing in his semifinal match, will take on Guillaume Rufin or Edouard Roger-Vasselin. After that, he could see Tatsuma Ito, Andrey Kuznetsov, Denis Istomin or Igor Sijsling (who is playing well right now). Istomin will be looking for some better results off of clay.
The versatile Kevin Anderson will play the De Schepper/Ram winner in a key 2nd round match and that should be followed by Benoit Paire, a qualifier, Denis Kudla or Federico Del Bonis.
Bottom Half:
Tomas Berdych, who fell in that huge opening round match at the French against Monfils, will try again against Thiemo De Bakker or Rogerio Dutra Silva. Dutchman De Bakker has been playing a bit better recently and could do some damage. The rest of this section is Grega Zemlja, Sergiy Stakhovsky and British wild cards Ed Corrie and Kyle Edmund, a couple of young guns.
Marin Cilic could be facing his countryman and the Croatian #2 Ivan Dodig. If Dodig can beat British journeyman James Ward, then Julian Benneteau and Adrian Mannarino will face each other while the crafty Ricardas Berankis will play a qualifier. Benneteau beat Berankis at the French Open in a quality match and Rycka will try to get him back on the grass if they meet.
Juan Martin Del Potro is back in the field after many questions about his health. He’ll play Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or grass maestro Xaiver Malisse and the winner should get Nieminen/Harrison. Guido Pella and British Davis Cup hero Dan Evans are also options.
Sam Querrey should feel much more comfortable on grass and will play Aljaz Bedene or Paul-Henri Mathieu and then could get Grigor Dimitrov, Dudi Sela or veterans Michael Russell and Lleyton Hewitt.This section is deeply intriguing.
Dark Horse: Lleyton Hewitt
There are a lot of choices in terms of dark horses, but Hewitt played well and went out in 5 sets in Paris. Now back on the comfortable confines of grass he has a draw that gives him a chance to make to some noise if he can beat Muscles Russell and then Grisha Dimitrov, followed by an upset of Sam Querrey most likely. After that, it will probably be another big match with Del Potro. He will not be favored after the opening round but anything is possible when it comes to the tenacious veteran.
Predictions:
Semis:
Murray d. Anderson
Berdych d. Querrey
Murray should be able to find his way to the semis as long as his back is ok though Rosol could be a challenge. Anderson needs to get past De Schepper/Ram, but after that things open up and Tsonga is probably tired from the French, setting up the South African for another good showing. Still, I don’t think it will be enough against the counterpuncher Murray who can parry him well. the h2h is 1-1, but they haven’t met since 2011.
Berdych, though he lost, really didn’t play poorly at RG, and his draw is about as good as it gets, likely rolling the semis unless an underdog like Berankis were to pull off a shock. I also think Querrey squeaks past his section and I can’t trust Del Potro health-wise right now. Berdych is just a better version of Querrey in almost every department, owning a 5-1 h2h record against him.
Final:
Berdych d. Murray
Could be a great final. Overall, Berdych leads the h2h 5-4 but Murray has a better record on faster surfaces.
ATP Halle
Gerry Weber Open
ATP World Tour 250
Halle, Germany
June 10-June 16, 2013
Prize money: € 779,665
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Roger Federer
2: Richard Gasquet
3: Tommy Haas
4: Kei Nishikori
1st round matchups to watch:
(7) Jerzy Janowicz vs. Phillip Petzschner
Janowicz made the 3rd round in Paris and has the game to do damage on grass given his good serve and quality volleying. Petzschner really is one of those players who only gets fanfare during the grass court season and thus this is an interesting match.
(5) Milos Raonic vs. Gael Monfils
Raonic will be happy to return to some quicker courts while Monfils was one of the huge storylines in Paris, this is a massive match and Raonic will be the favorite though Monfils won their only meeting indoors in 2011. Monfils is still unpredictable but at least he should be somewhat more rested.
Top Half:
4 time Halle champ Roger Federer gets Cedrik-Marcel Stebe or a qualifier, then should get the Janowicz/Petzschner winner, unless David Goffin or Mischa Zverev get through to round 3.
FO quarterfinalist Tommy Haas will play Ernests Gulbis for the 3rd time this year (having split meetings so far) if Gulbis beats Marcos Baghdatis in what would be an entertaining second round match. The Raonic/Monfils winner will play Daniel Brands or a qualifier in another big round 2 match.
Bottom Half:
Richard Gasquet will play Jurgen Melzer or a qualifier, then he will get one of Florian Mayer, Jan-Lennard Struff, Leo Mayer or a qualifier in an easy section. Kei Nishikori will play Mikhail Youzhny or Dani Gimeno-Traver and the winner likely gets Phillip Kohlschreiber if Kohli beats Carlos Berlocq and Lukasz Kubot/Tobias Kamke.
Dark Horse: Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz has the game for grass but it will all come down to a likely round 3 meeting with Federer, Fed is still one of the best players ever on grass, but this year he has just not been reliable, losing once again before the semis, to Tsonga in Paris. With Janowicz rising and Federer slipping the conditions are ripe for an upset after that he could get Haas/Brands/Gulbis/Raonic/Monfils all of whom would be tough, and Brands qualifies as a bit of a dark horse too. I will note Federer did beat Janowicz in Rome this year, but that was on clay. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xfOtobpn_E
Predictions:
Semis:
Janowicz d. Haas
Kohlschreiber d. Gasquet
Haas has a tough section but I think he makes it out before falling to the big Pole, Kohlschreiber should beat Nishikori on grass and then edge Gasquet who has a cupcake draw until the semis.
Final:
Janowicz d. Kohlschreiber
Janowicz won their only meeting last year indoors in Paris in route to the masters final and I think he wins his first ATP title in Halle.
Poor Stefanie Voegele. She was robbed of a point and had her concentration irretrievably broken at 4-4 in the 2nd set in Memphis today. Voegele had crawled back in the match after dropping the first set, and the worst display of short term memory loss by an official couldn’t have come at a worse time for Voegele. She returned a serve and it landed in play. The linesman called Erakovic’s serve wide, but the replay challenge showed it in. Instead of replaying the point, Chair Umpire Gigi Gregory called the point for Erakovic.
This made no sense, of course, but the result clearly altered the outcome of the match. Voegele’s coach, Ivo Werner, apparently directed strong words toward the Chair, as in calling Gregory a ‘fat b**ch”. While it’s not acceptable to use profanity at a tennis match unless you’re playing, a colossal umpire goof-up of these proportions could leave a lot of people momentarily forgetting their filters. This has to go down as the worst officiating call in history, and that’s saying something, since we survived the first part of the NFL season with replacement referees.
Tough break for Erakovic too, because it took the spotlight from another solid effort on her part. She’ll be a big underdog tomorrow.
Sabine Lisicki eked by an agressive Magdalena Rybarikova 7-5, 7-5. More likely, Sabine stole the match. In the take advantage way and not the mugging way like Voegele got from Gigi Gregory. Rybarikova served for both sets at 5-4 and lost the following three games in each set to lose at 5 and 5. She also looked strong this week but will probably be remembered for not being able to hold her nerve than anything else. Lisicki is a clear favorite for the title and is on to her second straight final in a row.
Sabi All Smiles Again
On Sunday, I picked Sabi to win it all in Memphis. Barring a major letdown on her part or another Gigi Gregory ‘Moment to Forget to Remember’, she’ll be holding the heavy hardware tomorrow night.
