2016 Busan, Aix en Provence, Karshi and Rome Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Busan Open Challenger Tour Tennis
ATP Challenger Tour
Busan, Korea
2-8 May 2016
Hardcourt, Rebound Ace
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ricardas Berankis (55)
2: John Millman (66)
3: Sam Groth (80)
4: Hyeon Chung (84)
5: Tatsuma Ito (104)
6: Lukas Lacko (113)
7: Yuichi Sugita (114)
8: Michael Berrer (115)
The last direct acceptance is Ti Chen, ranked 213th.
First round match-up to watch
(4) Hyeon Chung – Konstantin Kravchuk
19-year-old Chung peaked at a ranking of #51 in October, but still struggles with the transition to main tour tennis, having dropped to his current ranking of #82 and now trying to increase his ranking again by playing a Challenger. Hopefully this won’t be a recurring theme, because in the long run he will be better off facing stronger opposition in main tour events. Chung has already shown he is above Challenger level and will likely pick up another title here.
Top Half
Top seed Ricardas Berankis has successfully played a lot of tennis in the past couple of weeks and one has to imagine he is starting to feel tired. He might reach the semi-final solely based on how far above the rest of his opposition he will be skill wise, but it won’t be enough to beat Chung. Like Chung, let’s hope Berankis can settle down on the main tour for good now that he has increased his ranking close to the top 50 with a lot of Challenger tennis.
Bottom Half
Third seed Sam Groth has not returned well from foot surgery and is currently in very bad form. He is projected to meet Daniel Evans in the second round, who won a title last week, which will probably be the end of the road for Groth. Second seed John Millman is the favorite to come out of this half, but he has a very tricky draw, which might see him get upset prematurely. Millman faces Austin Krajicek in the first round, after which his projected path consists of respectively Sergiy Stakhovsky, Michael Berrer and Daniel Evans.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Chung d. Berankis
Millman d. Evans
Final:
Chung d. Millman
Open du Pays d’Aix-Trophee Caisse d’Epargne
ATP Challenger Tour
Aix en Provence, France
2-8 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €85,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Lukas Rosol (65)
2: Diego Schwartzman (87)
3: Rogerio Dutra Silva (101)
4: Stephane Robert (116)
5: Mischa Zverev (129)
6: Elias Ymer (132)
7: Daniel Brands (135)
8: Maximo Gonzalez (136)
The last direct acceptance is Tristan Lamasine, ranked 203rd. Former world #25 Julien Benneteau received a wildcard.
First round match-up to watch
Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Kimmer Coppejans
22-year-old Coppejans looked to be on the verge of breaking through many times, but can’t seem to make the step to main tour level. He cracked the top 100 almost a year ago, but has only regressed since, now being ranked 165th. He faces a tricky veteran in former world #35 Roger-Vasselin, who despite dropping to his current ranking of #190 is still a tough draw. However, if his ranking doesn’t improve soon he might retire from singles altogether and focus on his doubles career, where he is ranked 17th.
Top Half
Top seed Lukas Rosol might be by far the best ranked player in this half, you can’t call him by far the most likely to advance to the final. He hasn’t been in good form lately and there will be many tricky players on his path. Sixth seed Elias Ymer is his projected quarterfinal opponent and the 20-year-old is in good form, having won the Barletta Challenger two weeks ago. The same goes for Mischa Zverev, who comes off a tournament win at the Sarasota Challenger. Although it has to be said the green clay in the United States and the red clay here are a world of difference.
Bottom Half
Diego Schwartzman is the second seed, but I think it’s unlikely he will play here, having just won his first ATP title at Istanbul yesterday. Perhaps veteran fourth seed Stephane Robert can profit, being placed in a quarter with seventh seed Daniel Brands, who prefers faster courts. I would say Brands even is an underdog to get past his first round match against Renzo Olivo, who is likely to battle it out with Robert for a place in the semi-final. The winner of that match will be the favorite to reach the final as well.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Rosol d. Dutra Silva
Olivo d. Monteiro
Final:
Rosol d. Olivo
Karshi Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Karshi, Uzbekistan
2-7 May 2016
Hardcourt, Plexipave
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Dudi Sela (78)
2: Karen Khachanov (128)
3: Radu Albot (151)
4: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (197)
5: Amir Weintraub (198)
6: Denys Molchanov (224)
7: Dmitry Popko (230)
8: Aslan Karatsev (231)
The last direct acceptance is Ilya Ivashka, ranked 365th.
First round match-up to watch
(2) Karen Khachanov – Aleksandre Metreveli
Khachanov is really breaking through this year, currently ranked at a career high #128 after a great showing at the ATP 500 event of Barcelona. There he beat Aljaz Bedene, before adding an impressive top 20 victory over Roberto Bautista Agut to his résumé in the second round. Even though that was a clay event, he is equally as good on hardcourt and should be the clear favorite to reach the final here. There an interesting encounter with top seed Dudi Sela is projected, who won the Shenzhen Challenger last month and reached two other Challenger semi-finals.
Draw
I already gave away my expected final and it’s difficult to see another outcome, with Sela and Khachanov clearly being ahead of the rest of the field. This can also be seen in the rankings, with third seed Radu Albot ranked outside of the top 150, while fourth seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov is only barely ranked inside of the top 200.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Sela d. Albot
Khachanov d. Nedovyesov
Final:
Khachanov d. Sela
Roma Garden Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Rome, Italy
2-7 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Jiri Vesely (63)
2: Kyle Edmund (89)
3: Horacio Zeballos (91)
4: Adam Pavlasek (109)
5: Filip Krajinovic (110)
6: Jordan Thompson (118)
7: Kenny De Schepper (148)
8: Vincent Millot (149)
The last direct acceptance is Axel Michon, ranked 217th.
First round match-up to watch
(1) Jiri Vesely – Marsel Ilhan
Novak Djokovic will be relieved, one less thing to worry about in Madrid this week, as the man who took him out in Monte Carlo is playing a Challenger this week. Vesely is prioritizing this event over playing qualifying in Madrid, a decision certainly made before that legendary victory over the world number one. Vesely has been handed a good draw, with the players who could potentially threaten him being placed in the bottom half, so he is a big favorite to reach the final.
Top Half
As said, Vesely has a comfortable draw, being placed in a quarter with mostly players who don’t even have clay as their favorite surface. In the semi-final he is likely to faced third seed Horacio Zeballos or Adrian Ungur. Ungur faces fifth seed Filip Krajinovic in the first round, a rematch of their first round match in Istanbul last week, which Ungur comfortably won 6-3 6-3. Ungur then went on to massively threaten second seed and eventual runner-up Grigor Dimitrov in the second round, with the match ending 7-5 4-6 7-5.
Bottom Half
Second seed Kyle Edmund should be able to comfortably get through to at least the semi-final, where he is projected to face the in-form fourth seed Adam Pavlasek or sixth seed Jordan Thompson, who won the Anning Challenger last week. Pavlasek has already reached three Challenger finals this year, although he lost them all, one of which to Thompson in Cherbourg. Nevertheless, Edmund should be a decent favorite against either one of them.
2016 Sarasota, Gwangju and Barletta Challenger Recaps Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Sarasota
Top seed Denis Kudla was upset by his countryman Noah Rubin in the first round, losing a marathon three-set match after missing a match point, 7-5 2-6 7-6(8). Rubin followed up with a win over Gonzalo Lama in the second round, after which he was convincingly beaten Guilherme Clezar, 6-3 6-0. Fifth seed Tim Smyczek lost to Frances Tiafoe in the first round, 6-4 6-3, although that wasn’t really an upset. Third seed Gerald Melzer was the only seed in the top half to move past the first round, eventually beating Clezar in the semi-final after the Brazilian was forced to retire down in the third set at 6-7(4) 6-4 3-2, because of a quad strain.
In the bottom half, second seed Diego Schwartzman couldn’t break his patch of bad form in recent times, losing to Henri Laaksonen in the second round, 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4. Laaksonen lost to Mischa Zverev in the quarterfinal, 2-6 6-3 7-5, after which the older brother of Alexander also dispatched sixth seed Bjorn Fratangelo in the semi-final, 6-2 6-4. Zverev continued his great run in the final against Melzer, Jurgen’s younger brother, beating the Austrian 6-4 7-6(2) in this battle of lesser-known brothers. It meant the fifth career title for Zverev, rising thirty-one spots to #131 in the rankings. Melzer rose ten spots to #112, a career high ranking.
Challenger Sarasato: Stark! Mischa Zverev gewinnt das Endspiel in drei Sätzen gegen Gerald Melzer!! #Tennispic.twitter.com/rVM90viRfW
Judging by top seed Ricardas Berankis’ scorelines in this tournament, you would think he played a Futures event. The skill gap between the world #80 and his opponents, all ranked outside of the top 150, was simply too high. Little can be said. Berankis dropped only fourteen games on his way to the semi-final and not a lot was added to that count when he faced two seeded players in Di Wu (#4) and Grega Zemlja (#6, beat #2 seed Tatsuma Ito 6-4 6-3 in the semi-final), respectively beating them 6-4 6-1 and 6-3 6-2 to win his sixth title. He rose eighteen ranking spots, landing at a career high #62. Zemlja rose twenty-eight spots to #161.
The top two seeds were far from upholding their seeding in this event. Rogerio Dutra Silva, the top seed, lost 7-6(5) 6-4 to Jurgen Zopp in the quarterfinal, while second seed Roberto Carballes Baena lost 5-7 6-4 6-4 to Alessandro Giannessi in the second round. Zopp lost his semi-final to eighth seed Elias Ymer, who turned twenty last week, 6-2 6-4. Third seed Adam Pavlasek recovered well from his tough victory over Marton Fucsovics in the second round, 5-7 6-4 6-3, beating qualifiers Lorenzo Sonego and Enrique Lopez-Perez respectively 6-2 6-0 and 6-1 6-3 to reach the final. There Ymer was too strong, however, with the Swede winning 7-5 6-4 to take down his second title. He rose nineteen spots to a career high ranking of #123, while Pavlasek rose twelve spots to #108, a career high ranking as well.
2016 ATP Memphis Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Memphis Open is the first ATP tournament in North America, and is a 250 level indoor hard court event.
Memphis Open
ATP World Tour 250
February 8-14, 2016
Memphis, TN, USA
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize Money: $618,030
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (7)
2: Steve Johnson (29)
3: Donald Young (48)
4: Sam Querrey (58)
Memphis is primarily led by homegrown American players, while Kei Nishikori always seems to enjoy playing here as well.
A battle between players who could potentially become ATP stars in the future. Both came through qualifying, and Nishioka is likely a minor favorite due to his (3 set) head to win against Donaldson last year. The speedy Nishioka has had a slightly better start to his season, and I expect him to get the best of the American this time.
(6)Sam Groth vs. Illya Marchenko
Big serving Sam Groth likes this surface, but he has just one win to start his season. Marchenko is lower ranked, but he reached his first ever ATP semifinal in Doha and could take advantage of this rather open field and post another deep run. Groth has a low margin for error if he gets broken, and Marchenko should find a way to prevail.
Dudi Sela vs. Ricardas Berankis
The undersized veteran Sela is a respectable 6-3 in 2016, and he’s another player who could grab critical ranking points with a run in this tournament. Berankis is capable of strong indoor play, and won their last meeting. Both players are undersized ball strikers with relatively clean games. Berankis talent most likely wins the day.
(WC)Taylor Fritz vs. (Q)Michael Mmoh
A battle of former top American juniors. Fritz is 9-2 to start his season, and at this point in his career likely has an edge over his teenage counterpart Mmoh. Mmoh is making his ATP debut after qualifying. He’s the son of a former Nigerian ATP pro, was born in Saudi Arabia, and represents the USA. Both have a promising future, and it will be enjoyable to check out their games in this match.
Kei Nishikori seeks a fourth straight Memphis title, and he’s far and above the strongest player in the field. Nishikori is 5-2 to start the year, and he should move that to 6-2 with a round 2 victory over an American, either Ryan Harrison, or the young gun Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe is off to a consistent start at the Challenger level to start the season.
Nishikori is slated to face #5 seed Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Kudla rarely gets ATP draws this good, so this is a great opportunity for him to make a nice run. He’ll pit his 3-3 ATP record on the season against the serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram, with either Luca Vanni, or more likely, Mikhail Kukushkin, to follow. Vanni broke through in 2015, but has struggled to replicate that success early in the 2016 season. Given Nishikori outpaces Kudla’s ball striking, and that’s the American’s best weapon, Kei should cruise into the semis.
Sam Querrey retired in Melbourne and hasn’t had a great start to his season. He’s has to be glad to be back in the states for a match against either Matt Ebden or Henri Laaksonen. Ebden is 0-3 to start the season, while Laaksonen qualified, but has limited hard court success. Querrey should be able to reach the quarters. Groth/Marchenko will face Nishioka/Donaldson for the right to face him in those quarterfinals. It’ll be an interesting match between Marchenko and Nishioka, with Marchenko a slight dark horse favorite. Querrey has the most experience in this section and should reach the semis.
Steve Johnson won a pair of matches in Melbourne, after a very poor start to 2016, and if he can continue heading in the right direction, he has a great chance at reaching the final. Johnson gets Mmoh/Fritz first up, where his experience should be enough to reach the quarters. John Millman is his likely quarterfinal opponent. Millman, a quarterfinalist in Montpellier, is finally finding ATP success, and his first opponent is American Austin Krajicek. The winner of that match faces either veteran Benjamin Becker, or young American wild card Tommy Paul. Becker could find some momentum, but my quarterfinal pick is Johnson over Millman.
Donald Young isn’t in great form, but on home soil he should have an edge against either Malek Jaziri or Marcel Granollers. Jaziri hasn’t won a match in 2016, while Granollers continues his steady decline in singles. Berankis/Sela will face either Damir Dzumhur or Tim Smyczek for a spot in the semis. Smyczek reached the semis at the Dallas challenger, while Dzhumur has been in Europe, making that match somewhat interesting. Berankis vs. Young is my pick for the quarters, with Berankis advancing.
In a field with few standouts besides Nishikori, it’s anyone’s tournament, and Marchenko, after his run to the semis in Doha, has showed promise this season. A relative journeyman, he prefers hard courts, and could post another ATP semifinal with a couple of upset wins.
Predictions
Semis Nishikori d. Querrey
Johnson d. Berankis
The top two seeds should reach the final.
Final Nishikori d. Johnson
It’s hard to see Nishikori not winning Memphis, as anyone in the field would need to post a remarkable performance to beat him.
2016 ATP Doha Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The richest stop on the ATP tour this week is in glitzy Doha, Qatar as many of the top players will stop off in the Middle East for a hard court 250 before heading down under and continuing their Australian Open preparations.
ATP Doha
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
ATP World Tour 250
Doha, Qatar
Surface: Hard
January 4-9, 2016
Prize Money: $1,189,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Rafael Nadal (5)
3: Tomas Berdych (6)
4: David Ferrer (7)
Doha is quite top heavy with four top 10 players, and then a big drop off in ranking as the top seeds should be at an advantage this week.
First round matchups to watch:
Fernando Verdasco vs. (WC)Malek Jaziri
Verdasco had his worst year in quite some time on the ATP Tour in 2015 going 24-26 as the Spanish lefty appears to be burning out at 32. This year is crucial for his career, and if he gets off to a poor start he may not be sticking around main draws for long as he’s dropped to #49 in the world.
To get himself back in form he’ll need to win matches like this against the wild card Jaziri who was a mediocre 12-20 at the ATP tour level last year, but still had his best ever year on tour and showed flashes of shotmaking ability well above his journeyman status and ranking of #103 presently. Verdasco should win this but he could be rusty.
Mayer has a hard court h2h win against Becker, but this match is far closer than the respective rankings of these veterans would suggest. Mayer has been average on hard courts historically, and Becker, when healthy, can serve and attack effectively to post quality results. The German struggled with back problems last year, and at 34 he’s not getting any younger. Mayer is the favorite but the qualifier continuing his good form for an upset would not shock me.
Martin Klizan vs. (Q)Kyle Edmund
Klizan is ranked in the top 50 but he was below .500 at the tour level last year and was relatively unimpressive on hard courts. The Slovak still has the ability to hit with power, but he struggles with consistency and keeping the ball in play. Edmund is a rising young Brit who is just outside the top 100 at 20. He’s 2-12 in his career at the ATP main draw level, but you have to assume those results will start turning the corner soon, and they could do so in this match.
(6)Andreas Seppi vs. Ricardas Berankis
The Italian veteran Seppi, who plays with a lot of variety in his game, has won two close matches with Berankis, and on this surface this match has some intrigue to start the season. Seppi started the year off hot last season, but crumbled down the stretch and finished just 26-25 overall, while securing a ranking inside the top 30. Berankis remains talented but underachieving at 25, he had a career high 12 tour level match wins last year, but still finished under ,500 at that level. The undersized ball striker could catch Seppi by surprise if he’s rusty, but the seed is the favorite.
After an incredible 2015 where he posted an 82-6 record, and won almost every marquee tournament, Novak Djokovic is going for an even better encore act in 2016. He can start the year off right by adding another trophy to his storage unit of trophies with a title in Doha. The world #1 will open with the exciting Dustin Brown, who qualified and would love an opening round upset of epic proportions. Brown has been able to play a considerable number of ATP matches over the past two seasons, and though he was under .500 against last year, you never know what you’re going to get with his serve and volley game. Djokovic should advance however and then ease past the Verdasco/Jaziri winner.
The Becker/Mayer has the inside track to post an early ATP quarterfinal as their round 2 opponent will be either Pablo Andujar or Paolo Lorenzi, both of whom prefer clay. After Brown, nobody should be able to stop Djokovic before the semis, and I have Mayer in the quarters before falling to Djokovic.
Tomas Berdych should also be untroubled before the quarterfinals, he’s defending finals points from last season at this tournament. Berdych is 6-0 in his career against his opening round opponent Sergiy Stakhovsky, the Ukrainian unable to handle his baseline power after a 20-25 ATP main draw record last season. Berdych went 57-22, his most wins ever in an ATP season. Berdych should ease past Damir Dzumhur or Marco Cecchinato in round 2, with Dzumhur a better hard court player than the Italian.
Look for Berdych to face another serve in volleyer, Feliciano Lopez, in the quarterfinals. Flopez ended 2015 with a 32-26 record, one that was comparable to his 2014, along with a top 20 ranking. The Spaniard will face his countryman, journeyman Daniel Munoz de la Nava in round 1, and then the Klizan/Edmund winner. Presuming the Spanish veteran can continue his hard court success from previous seasons, it’ll be a Berdych vs. Lopez quarterfinal with Berdych holding a 4-3 hard court h2h edge, and having won the previous two meetings. Berdych can play bad matches at times but he’s the favorite for the semis.
2014 Doha champion Rafael Nadal is looking for a 2016 that is far better than his 2015, where he lost more matches (20) than he had in any previous ATP season. Nadal showed signs of turning the corner, after playing below top 10 level for parts of last season, when he finished strong on the Fall swing. This tournament is another form check for Rafa in advance of the Australian Open, in regards to how vulnerable he is to an upset. His first opponent, countryman Pablo Carreno Busta, is not the type of upset him, though PCB showed improvement on hard courts in 2015. Nadal should also cruise past either Robin Haase or qualifier Aslan Karatsev. Karatsev has limited ATP experience, while Haase once more disappointed at the ATP level with a sub .500 record in tour matches.
Nadal should be pleased with his draw as the Berankis/Seppi winner is also a good matchup for his defensive baseline game in the quarterfinals. Berankis/Seppi will face either Marsel Ilhan or Andrey Kuznetsov in round 2. Both players were poor at the ATP level last season. Nadal over Seppi is the most likely result in the quarters. Nadal is 6-1 in the career h2h vs. Seppi.
David Ferrer had his fewest ATP losses since 2012 when he posted a 53-16 record in 2015, and continued to defy his doubters with another top 8 season at 33 years old with his grinding style of play. Ferru is the defending champion and opens with journeyman Ilya Marchenko in his first match. Teymuraz Gabashvili or Simone Bolelli will be his round 2 opponent. Gabashvili is 2-0 on hard courts against the shotmaker Bolelli, who had a better ATP record than the he did in 2015. Both can play great tennis, and have their peaks and valleys. I have Bolelli winning his first match and then falling to Ferrer who he is 0-6 against. Ferrer is 2-1 against Gabashvili.
#7 Seed Jeremy Chardy could trip up in round 2 if he doesn’t tune his game up after drubbing local wild card Mubarak Shannan Zayid in round 1, who is at a level below most ATP hitting partners. Albert Ramos and Paul-Henri Mathieu will vie for the right to face him round 2, as Ramos was stronger at the ATP level last season but Mathieu with his baseline ball striking can play crafty veteran tennis at times. Presuming Ramos top spin is working he should test Chardy who was an even 28-28 last season. Chardy usually operates under the radar in tournaments and I do have him reaching another quarterfinal in subtle fashion.
Ferrer will be looking for revenge against Chardy after losing to him at the 2015 US Open. Ferrer dominates the overall h2h 7-2 and should extend that to 8-2 in reaching the semifinals, though Chardy’s deceptive game could surprise.
It would be a good showing for the unseeded Berankis to get past Seppi and Ilhan/Kuznetsov to reach the quarterfinals and get an upset shot at Nadal. Berankis has always had the talent and this needs to be a breakthrough year for him, similar to the type of success David Goffin, a player of similar style and stature, was able to have last season.
Predictions
Semis Djokovic d. Berdych
Nadal d. Ferrer
Nadal won both his meetings against Ferrer last season and Djokovic is 6-0 against Berdych over the past two seasons, thus both of the top seeds have a clear edge to reach the final. It’s also worth noting that Nadal just beat Ferrer in a hard court exo in Abu Dhabi, an exo that he won.
Final Djokovic d. Nadal
The tournament organizers would love this final and they will probably get it. The h2h is 23-23 between the legends but Djokovic swept Nadal last year (4-0) and has also won the last four hard court meetings. Nadal knows how to beat the world #1, and he still has enough belief to do it, but Nadal would need to play a flawless match to defeat Djokovic.
2015 ATP Vienna, Stockholm, and Moscow Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A trio of European indoor hard court tournaments take place this week on the ATP tour as the season enters its final weeks.
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 500
Vienna, Austria
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €1,745,040
8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (8)
2: Kevin Anderson (10)
3: John Isner (13)
4: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (15)
5: Dominic Thiem (18)
6: Gael Monfils (19)
7: Ivo Karlovic (21)
8: Fabio Fognini (26)
Two top 10, and six top 20 players are in Vienna for its first edition as a 500 level tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)David Ferrer vs. Albert Ramos
Ferrer has a 4-0 h2h record against his countryman and should be a solid favorite after posting a 7-2 record over his last 9 matches. Ramos is in great form though, he qualified in Shanghai and shocked Roger Federer for the biggest win of his career, going on to push eventual finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to three sets in the round of 16. Ferrer is a better player, and far better indoors, but Ramos may be able to notch another top 10 win in this one if Ferrer plays as poorly as he did in Shanghai.
(8)Fabio Fognini vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Fognini leads the h2h 2-1 with Mathieu but they haven’t played since 2009. The French veteran isn’t a clutch player but he has a solid ballstriking game indoors and could trouble Fognini if the Italian loses his cool. Fabio reached the semis in Beijing and his form has been good since the US Open though, so I have him avoiding the upset and winning this one.
Janowicz has a h2h win over Thiem and recently reached a challenger final on indoor hard. JJ has a great game for this venue, though he’s struggled to maintain ATP level tennis this season, and Thiem faces the pressure of being the home favorite. Both player are about equal in talent level, but Thiem’s consistency should help him prevail.
The defending finalist David Ferrer should draw another Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, in the second round after facing Ramos. GGL has lost three straight matches, and his round 1 opponent Santiago Giraldo is struggling mightily as well. Though GGL is good indoors, Ferrer leads the h2h 7-1 and he should reach the quarterfinals.
Fabio Fognini should be able to reach the quarterfinals as well, as he’ll face either Austrian journeyman Dennis Novak or Radek Stepanek in round 2, after his match with PHM. Stepanek hasn’t played well in quite some time and I don’t expect him to challenge Fognini. Ferrer leads the h2h with Fognini 8-0 and with the World Tour Finals on the line, look for Ferrer to make the semifinals in Austria.
Shanghai finalist, and former Vienna champion, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may be exhausted from his exploits at the Masters level but his round 1 opponent Tommy Haas, a loser of four straight matches, isn’t likely to defeat him. After Haas I also give Lukas Rosol or qualifier Yuichi Sugita a limited chance to upset Tsonga. Rosol has a big enough game to pull it off, but Tsonga is an excellent indoors player and the Czech has been out of tune for some time.
Gael Monfils is the biggest threat to Tsonga reaching the semifinals, The high flying Frenchman will look to extend his h2h over a struggling Thomaz Bellucci to 3-0 in his first match since the US Open. Monfils has struggled to stay healthy, but Bellucci, and likely Rajeev Ram in round 2 are both opponents he should be favored against. Ram opens with dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 1.
Monfils beat Tsonga in Miami this year, but Tsonga has an edge in the overall h2h, and I look for Jo to bite him back if they meet in the quarterfinals. Fatigue is a factor, but so is rust with Monfils.
Bottom Half:
Kevin Anderson should cruise to the quarterfinals past Austria’s Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Jiri Vesely, presuming Vesely beats Austrian wild card Gerald Melzer in round 1. Vesely reached the quarterfinals in Shenzen and he’s a streaky player. The h2h between Kev and Jiri is 1-1, with Vesely beating him early this season in Auckland. Indoors with Anderson’s serve the result should swing to his favor. Anderson comes off the quarterfinals in Shanghai and solid wins over Fognini and Kei Nishikori.
I look for Dominic Thiem to beat Janowicz and then the winner of Alex Dolgopolov/Steve Johnson to reach the quarterfinals in front of the home fans. Dolgo has lost five straight matches, but he was solid enough in Shanghai and he has a higher peak than Johnson who won a round in Shanghai and went out in round 2. Thiem and Dolgo is a tough matchup, but consistency and venue should give Thiem the advantage.
Anderson is 3-0 in the h2h against Thiem and beat him at the US Open this year, it could be close, but big Kev should gain some ranking points and reach the semis.
The final semifinal spot should come down to a battle of big servers in the quarterfinals. Ivo Karlovic faces the all-courter Andreas Seppi in round 1 and he should be able to find consistency and serve past him, and Jan-Lennard Struff or Sergiy Stakhovsky in his first two matches. Struff qualified and has two challenger titles and a semifinal as of late, so his form has been excellent at a lower level. JL has always been a good challenger tour player but hasn’t quite made the jump to ATP tennis on a regular basis, the Karlovic serve should prove to be too much.
Look for John Isner to join Karlovic in the quarters by ousting the in-form Kenny De Schepper and then the struggling Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis should get his first match win in months by defeating ATP main draw débutante Lucas Miedler, a 19 year old Austrian who hasn’t even reached the challenger tour level yet, but came through qualifying.
Isner is 7-3 in his last 10 matches, and those three losses all came at the hands of top 10 players. The match with Karlovic should come down to just a few points, but I give him the edge to reach the semis.
Struff is just 4-17 at the main tour level this year but he’s 16-2 since the US Open and in fantastic form at the Challenger Tour level. JL reached the quarterfinals in Vienna last year and posted two ATP semifinals indoors as well (Marseille and Metz). He’s got all the shotmaking ability needed to excel, but his mental game is rather weak. Should Ivo Karlovic and Isner slip up, Struff could find his way to the semifinals of an ATP tournament for the third time in his career.
Predictions
semis Ferrer d. Tsonga
Isner d. Anderson
Ferrer leads the h2h with Tsonga 3-1 and should be fresher than his rival in this semifinal. Ferru already took the title indoors in Kuala Lumpur, and he should reach another final this Fall in Vienna, reprising his result last year.
Isner tends to have the matchup edge with Anderson and his form has been good.
final Ferrer d. Isner
Ferrer is 5-1 in the h2h against Isner and should be highly motivated to capture another ATP title.
ATP Stockholm
IF Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
Stockholm, Sweden
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: €537,050
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Richard Gasquet (11)
3: Gilles Simon (14)
4: Bernard Tomic (20)
Stockholm boasts a quality field for an ATP 250 tournament with four top 20 names.
First round matchups to watch:
Benjamin Becker vs. John Millman
Becker has caught fire this Fall on indoor hard, the offensive baseliner reached the final of the Mons challenger and the semifinals in Kuala Lumpur for an overall 9-3 record since the US Open. Previously in a cold slump, he’s back playing crafty tennis and could be a threat in Stockholm. John Millman qualified for Beijing and upset Tommy Robredo, the Australian has the talent to be an ATP level player but he’s still seeking a breakthrough, and winning this match would help. Look for Becker to advance and maintain his hot streak.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Denis Kudla
Fernando Verdasco has lost three straight and could be in for an upset defeat at the hands of the dynamic ball striker Denis Kudla. Kudla went 7-2 on the USTA Pro Circuit after the US Open and is now returning to the ATP main draw level in Stockholm. It’s been a career year for Kudla, and look for him to add to that with a win over the declining Verdasco.
(6)Jeremy Chardy vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
The talented young gun Kokkinakis is seeking his 12th ATP tour level win this season and could break out of a cold slump with a win over Chardy, a big hitter who is capable of playing well indoors. Chardy lost to Kokkinakis on grass earlier this season and has lost two straight matches himself. I have Kokkinakis pulling off the upset.
The defending and two-time Stockholm champion Tomas Berdych will open with the Alex Zverev/Mikael Ymer winner. Ymer is the younger brother of the better known Elias Ymer and gets a main draw wild card. His ATP debut will take place against a fellow young gun who is seeking to snap a four match losing streak. Zverev should fall to the Shenzen champion and Shanghai quarterfinalist Berdych in round 2.
Look for Berdych to face another former Stockholm champion, Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarterfinals. A struggling Dimitrov opens with a qualifier, and then is likely to face the retiring Jarkko Nieminen. Nieminen gets a wild card and is ending his ATP career in Stockholm after a solid career as Finland’s #1 tennis player. The speedy defensively minded veteran opens with Daniel Munoz-De La Nava, who has been on fire on the clay court challenger tour. Nemo has lost four straight, and Dimitrov is far better at this point in their careers.
Berdych beat Dimitrov in the Stockholm final last year and given Dimitrov’s poor form this season the Czech has the edge to reach the semifinals.
Shanghai quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic will open with either Sam Querrey or Marcos Baghdatis. Querrey leads the h2h 3-0 over Baghdatis, and Tomic should have the edge in his section to reach another ATP quarterfinal. Trouble should await at that stage though, as Becker/Millman or Gilles Muller/qualifier are the options. Muller has an ATP quarterfinal and a semifinal this Fall and is a solid indoor player, as is Becker. The pair of veterans have met just once before and Becker came out on top. I have that result repeating itself and a Tomic vs. Becker quarterfinal, in which Tomic should have the edge.
Bottom Half:
Richard Gasquet should cruise through his section of the draw and power his way to the semifinals. Neither Steve Darcis, or a struggling Adrian Mannarino, look to be threatening in his first match and he’ll have a decided edge over the Chardy/Kokkinakis winner in the quarters. The other option in this section is the winner of Federico Delbonis/qualifier, and Delbonis much prefers clay.
Gilles Simon could make it an all-French semifinal against Gasquet if he can beat Leo Mayer/qualifier and likely the winner of Jack Sock vs. Denis Kudla in the quarterfinals. Sock faces dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta first up, and then the Verdasco/Kudla winner. On Simon’s end, Mayer is struggling, and Kudla beat Sock the last time they played. Simon is 7-3 in his last 10 matches and should beat Kudla in the quarters.
Either Becker or Gilles Muller could get through to the semifinals over Tomic and possibly give Berdych/Dimitrov problems as well in the semifinals. Becker, even at his age, still has a quality serve and plays smart, aggressive tennis indoors. His back injury seems to have sorted itself out and he’s back cranking on the ball from both wings.
Predictions
semis Berdych d. Tomic
Gasquet d. Simon
Berdych is 4-0 in the h2h against Tomic and has beaten him twice this season. Given his good record in Stockholm, he should prevail once more. Gasquet is 6-1 in the h2h against Simon and won a pair of matches in Shanghai to show form.
final Berdych d. Gasquet
Berdych is 2-1 against Gasquet this year, and was 1-1 against him last season. It’s a close h2h and a difficult match to predict, but Berdych’s better form gives him the advantage.
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 19-October 25, 2015
Prize Money: $698,325
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Marin Cilic (12)
2: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
3: Viktor Troicki (24)
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber (31)
With just one top 20 player, Moscow has the weakest field of the tournaments this week.
Kukushkin has had success in Moscow before and he posted a quarterfinal in Kuala Lumpur. Rublev by contrast has lost three straight, but the teenager is the great white hope for Russian men’s tennis and will have all eyes on him at a home tournament. Rublev is plenty talented, but with his recent run of poor form, I have Kukushkin winning this match and schooling the youngster.
Simone Bolelli vs. Lucas Pouille
Bolelli leads the h2h against the young gun Pouille 3-0 and he’s 8-4 since the US Open. Pouille by contrast has lost three straight matches since reaching the quarterfinals in St. Petersburg. Pouille has a great forehand and the ability to notch a win in this one, but a wiser Bolelli should defeat him.
Top Half:
Defending champion Marin Cilic should blaze through to the semifinals. Cilic opens with the winner of Aljaz Bedene/Denis Istomin, and then should face Rublev/Kukushkin in the quarters, as Radu Albot/Andrey Kuznetsov is the only player that stands in their way. Istomin just won a challenger title and should beat Bedene, but Cilic is 6-3 since the US Open and should move that to 8-3 with wins over Istomin and Kukushkin. He’s by far the best player in his section and just beat Kukushkin at the US Open.
Former champion Viktor Troicki is just 2-3 since the US Open, but wild card Cem Ilkel, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili are unlikely to oust him in the opening round. Gabashvili is a streaky player with talent, but like Troicki he seems to have lost his way right now. I have Troicki going out to Borna Coric in the quarterfinals, after Coric defeats Evgeny Donskoy and Ricardas Berankis (Berankis opens with Malek Jaziri). Coric has the most talent in this section and has been battling at the ATP level while Donkoy, Berankis, and Jaziri have all been on the challenger tour (and done well at that level). Berankis is a potential dark horse in this section if his solid ball striking pays off.
Bottom Half:
St. Petersburg semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut plays well in Russia, and he should use his forehand to once more excel indoors and defeat Marsel Ilhan/qualifier, and then setup a meeting with either Joao Sousa or the Bolelli/Pouille winner in the quarters. Sousa is one of the better indoor specialists in the game and after Daniel Gimeno-Traver he’ll face Bolelli/Pouille. I have the St. Petersburg finalist Sousa snapping a losing streak and beating Bolelli (who he beat in St. Petersburg), and Bautista Agut for a spot in the semifinals. His game is well suited for this venue.
Philipp Kohlschreiber opens with Mikhail Youzhny/qualifier. Youzhny is a horrific 9-23 at the ATP level this year while Kohlschreiber was a semifinalist in Metz and should at least make a quarterfinal in this one. A qualifier has a fantastic chance to make the quarterfinals opposite Kohli. Pablo Cuevas opens with a qualifier, as does Robin Haase, and they both prefer a surface other than indoor hard. I have the qualifiers winning those round 1 matches, and then Kohlschreiber beating a qualifier for a spot in the semis.
Berankis has the talented needed to get through Coric and his weak early section, and then give Cilic a test in the semifinals. The former top junior is undersized for the ATP game but he’s a solid ball striker, and still has a lot of intangible talent, even though his pro career has been a disappointment thus far.
Predictions
semis Cilic d. Coric
Kohlschreiber d. Sousa
Cilic and Kohlschreiber should be strong favorites to meet each other in the final.
final Cilic d. Kohlschreiber
Kohli leads the h2h with Cilic 5-3, but I feel Cilic is the better player right now and will find a way to win and repeat as champion.
2015 ATP Metz and St. Petersburg Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP World Tour returns with the start of the European fall indoor hard court swing. A pair of 250s are up this week, one in Metz, France, and the other in St. Petersburg, Russia, as that event returns after being absent from the tour calendar last season.
ATP Metz
Moselle Open
ATP World Tour 250
Metz, France
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: €439,405
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Stan Wawrinka (4)
2: Gilles Simon (10)
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (17)
4: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (31)
Two top 10 players, and three top 20 players gives Metz a quality field for a small indoor 250 at this point in the season.
Kohlschreiber had a successful outing in Davis Cup for Germany over the weekend as he went 2-0, but the former Metz finalist has had a down season at the ATP level thsi year. Additionally, he may have to fight fatigue and jet lag as he’s coming back from the Caribbean with Davis Cup duty. Millman is a talented underachiever who won a pair of challengers over the summer and can play solid tennis at times, Peppo is still the favorite, but this match has some upset potential.
(6)Martin Klizan vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
PHM is playing on home soil, and veteran who relies on solid ballstriking is a relatively solid player indoors. He recently reached the final in Kitzbuhel on clay over the summer, beating his opponent Klizan in the process, and qualified for the US Open. Klizan comes off a 2-0 result in Davis Cup and has an indoor h2h win over Mathieu in Rotterdam (2013, 3 sets) but he’s a streaky player who can ball bash well, or struggle mightily. Depending on what version of Klizan will show up, he’ll either advance with ease or lose in an upset in this matchup of contrasting styles.
(WC)Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
The US Open doubles champion Herbert recently reached his first ATP title in Winston-Salem, and on home soil with a big serve, he’s a danger to the serve and volleyer Stakhovsky. Stako reached the third round of the US Open and a recent challenger final however (in Istanbul), so his form appears good. An inspired PHH could rock the boat this tournament, and with a recent h2h win over Stako, I have him winning against him again.
(8)Fernando Verdasco vs. Alexander Zverev
Verdasco is just 2-5 since Wimbledon, and he risks dropping that number to 2-6 at the hands of the young gun Zverev. The teenager had a successful summer and qualified for the US Open among other good results. His indoor game isn’t as good as his clay court game, but the big hitting Verdasco has struggled to find rhythm and I’m going to go with an upset and pick Zverev, who is on the upswing of his career, while Verdasco is clearly heading downhill.
Stan Wawrinka was pushed to five sets in his DC singles rubber against the lower ranked Thiemo De Bakker on Friday, but the Swiss #2 is unlikely to have much trouble getting past the first couple of matches in Metz. Wawrinka is 42-13 on the season and also reached the semis of the US Open most recently. Look for him to get past a serve and volleyer in his first match, either Rajeev Ram or the big serving Dustin Brown, who also comes off of DC duty, and then past Kohlschreiber for a spot in the semifinals. Stan the Man is 2-0 in the h2h, and should not only be in better form, but also be fresher than his German counterpart. Both players have elite one handed backhands and it’ll be a fun matchup if it takes place. The Kohlschreiber/Millman winner faces either Belgium’s Davis Cup hero Steve Darcis, or dirtballer Paolo Lorenzi in round 2 with the serve and volleying Darcis likely too tired to make much of an impact this tournament.
Two-time Metz champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was excellent at the US Open, where he reached the quarterfinals, and the aggressive Frenchman tends to play well indoors, and at home. The fan favorite is placed in a weak section that will feature either a qualifier or Pablo Carreno Busta in the round of 16, and by ranking #7 seed Adrian Mannarino in the quarterfinals. Nicolas Mahut, the other half of the winning US Open doubles team, could prove to be a bit of a dark horse if the serve and volleyer can get his game together and beat a struggling Federico Delbonis (a loser of 5 straight matches) and Mannarino, who has been streaky this season. All of the French players are fan favorites at home, but Tsonga is a clear favorite to reach the semis for a likely matchup against Wawrinka. I have Mahut slipping past Mannarino, though it’s hard to tell with Adrian.
Two-time Metz champion Gilles Simon, another of the French fan favorites at this tournament, will open with a qualifier and from there should advance to face the big serving and dangerous Gilles Muller in the quarterfinals. Muller opens with Aljaz Bedene as he looks to snap a 3 match losing streak. The serve and volleyer is at his best on fast surfaces and I see him slipping past the Verdasco/Zverev winner in a potentially close match. Simon beat Muller last year in Tokyo, and I see him earning a pair of wins to snap a four match losing streak and reach the semifinals.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez won a pair of matches at the US Open to improve his form, but of the four top seeds, he’s still the most likely to exit before the quarterfinals, as the Herbert/Stakhovsky winner could stymie him with their unique styles of play. The Spanish veteran has won a title on indoor hard courts this season though and he has more experience than Herbert in a tough section. The other quarterfinalist will be one of Aleksandr Nedovyesov/Vasek Pospisil/Klizan/Mathieu, with Mathieu my favorite out of the section. Pospisil also has talent but he’s inconsistent, so look for Mathieu past Pospisil, and then Garcia-Lopez over Mathieu in a wide open section.
Frenchmen Herbert, Mathieu, and Mahut could all serve as unseeded dark horses this week, but with the #2 seed Simon struggling, if Muller serves well he could reach the semifinals, and potentially the final out of the bottom half. After gaining some rest, he should be fresh and he plays well on these types of surfaces historically.
Predictions
Semis: Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Simon d. Garcia-Lopez
Tsonga has a h2h win in Metz (2007) but the previous few meetings have gone in favor of Wawrinka, and the Swiss has clearly outperformed his French counterpart this year, and in recent memory. Wawrinka simply should be a cut above his semifinal opposition.
Simon is in a slump but he’s 5-0 in the h2h against GGL, so if he gets this far, he should reach another Metz final.
Final: Wawrinka d. Simon
Presuming Wawrinka devotes effort to this 250 tournament he should win it, he’s the best player in the field by a considerable margin, and a player like Simon won’t be in the form to match him toe to toe right now.
ATP St. Petersburg
St. Petersburg Open
ATP World Tour 250
St. Petersburg, Russia
September 21-September 27, 2015
Prize Money: $1,030,000
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Tomas Berdych (5)
2: Milos Raonic (9)
3: Dominic Thiem (20)
4: Roberto Bautista Agut (22)
Even without the strong contingent of home players that Metz sports, St. Petersburg returns to the ATP Tour after funding problems last season with a strong field that features two top 10, and three top 20 players in what should be an entertaining edition of the tournament.
Their teams faced each other in Davis Cup over the weekend, with Bolelli and Italy emerging victorious, but now the young gun Rublev would like to extract some personal revenge for that loss at home in St. Petersburg, where he is one of the stars of the tournament, and the future of Russian tennis at the moment. The teenager qualified for the US Open, snapping a summer of struggles, but his loss in Davis Cup to Fabio Fognini should dent his momentum a bit. Bolelli, a solid player indoors, is also the loser of three straight however and the Italian veteran is looking to gain momentum himself. Look for big hitting in this matchup, and as celebrated as Rublev is, I have Bolelli grinding out the win.
(6)Benoit Paire vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz beat Paire in three sets earlier this year on indoor hard, but Paire has had a much better season than Jerzy and has been in excellent form since the summer. The French all-courter and his one handed backhand reached the second week of the US Open while Janowicz is 2-3 over his last five, which includes Davis Cup duty over the weekend. Janowicz with his power game is also solid indoors, but I have Paire winning this matchup of talented but often underachieving players.
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Ernests Gulbis
Two aggressive baseliners will face off in this one, Gulbis one the 2013 edition of St. Petersburg, while Baghdatis is 0-3 since suffering an abductor injury in the ATP Atlanta final back in July. Gulbis has lost four straight and, like Baghdatis, his last match ended in a retirement, as both guys have struggled to get healthy. A poor season for Gulbis is contrasted by a good season overall for Baghdatis, and I have the Cypriot notching the victory presuming his health has sorted itself out. Baghdatis is 3-0 in the hard court h2h.
Tomas Berdych had a poor summer by his top 10 standards, but the Czech is still 45-15 on the season and should have the inside track against Bolelli/Rublev. In the quarterfinals, look for him to face Australian young gun Thanasi Kokkinakis. Kokkinakis opens with pedestrian Spanish veteran Marcel Granollers, and then he’ll face either Joao Sousa or a qualifier in round 2. Both Sousa and Kokkinakis come off of Davis Cup play but Sousa is in poor form, and although he’s had a lot of success on indoor hard, I have Kokkinakis winning that matchup. Berdych should power past Kokkinakis at that stage however.
#3 seed Dominic Thiem reached the third round of the US Open in a decent showing for the Austrian, and he’ll look to continue to improve on fast surfaces with a routine win over Daniel Gimeno-Traver or newlywed Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2, as both players much prefer clay. In the quarterfinals, Mikhail Kukushkin could prove to be the dark horse, as he opens with a relatively struggling Denis Istomin and then will face a qualifier or the mightily slumping Benjamin Becker in round 2. Kukushkin played well at the US Open and beat Istomin at the start of the season, his game tends to peak for these smaller 250 events. Thiem and Kukushkin have never played one another, but Kukushkin’s hard court form is arguably better right now, and I have him scoring the rankings upset and reaching the semis.
Milos Raonic has struggled since Wimbledon with a pedestrian 2-3 record. The Canadian #1 hasn’t been the same with his rocket serve since foot surgery, but he’s playing an easy match to open in St. Petersburg against either Evgeny Donskoy or a qualifier. Donskoy, a wild card, has been in excellent form at the challenger tour level this summer but Raonic should still prove too much for him. In the quarters he’s likely to face another player in a slump, as the Baghdatis/Gulbis winner or Tommy Robredo/Mikhail Youzhny are options. The 33 year old Robredo has had a far superior season to Youzhny, so though Youzhny is playing on home soil, Robredo should get through, and likely get past Baghdatis/Gulbis as well, as they may be rusty in their own right. Raonic is 4-0 against Robredo in the h2h with all wins coming since 2013, so with that in mind the Canadian should make the semifinals.
Roberto Bautista Agut is 29-23 this season and comes off a second week showing in the US Open that should give him some good momentum in what has been a rather average year by his standards. Russian Davis Cup participant Teymuraz Gabashvili, presuming Gaba beats a qualifier, should await him in round 2, and Gabashvili is a player capable of crafting upsets, like he did against Andy Murray this summer in Washington. RBA is the section favorite, but Gabashvili could find form and reach the quarters, though he’s not my pick to do so. Paire/Janowicz or Ricardas Berankis/Lucas Pouille will await most likely ether RBA or Gabashvili at that stage. Presuming Paire continues his run of form, which is always in question, I look for him to make it that far before falling to RBA. Berankis has also been in good form as of late with his undersized game. RBA is 7-0 in the h2h against Paire.
If a non seed is going to reach the semifinals or better, Berankis is the player to watch, he’s just 5-8 but he’s always been talented and he’s one of the better pure baseline ball strikers on the ATP tour. He reached consecutive quarterfinals on the US Open Series this summer and he plays well on fast indoor surfaces. Paire/Janowicz are streaky, and RBA/Gabashvili are beatable, so it’s far from out of the question that the Lithuanian will do well at a tournament that is close to home for him.
Predictions
Semis: Berdych d. Kukushkin
Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Berdych is simply better than Kukushkin and has a h2h win, so like Wawrinka in Metz, if the top seed puts his efforts into this tournament, he’s the favorite. Raonic has a h2h win over RBA last year in Paris, an indoor tournament, and he should be motivated to fight hard this fall on fast surfaces to gain some ranking points after a slow Summer.
Indoors Raonic leads the h2h 2-1, but Berdych appears to be in better form and for that reason I have him as a slight favorite over Raonic in this possible final.
2015 ATP Washington D.C. (@CitiOpen) Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The next ATP 500 series event is the joint ATP/WTA hard court tournament in the American capital city Washington D.C. Most of the ATP players from the first stop of the North American hard court Summer in Atlanta will be making the trek up to D.C., joined by a host of other big names, as many of the top players begin their US Open prep.
2015 ATP Washington D.C. Preview
Citi Open
ATP World Tour 500*
Washington D.C., USA
August 3-August 9, 2015
Prize Money: $1,508,815
*denotes joint ATP/WTA tournament
Top 8 seeds (top 16 seeds receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (3)
2: Kei Nishikori (5)
3: Marin Cilic (8)
4: Richard Gasquet (13)
5: Kevin Anderson (14)
6: Grigor Dimitrov (16)
7: Feliciano Lopez (19)
8: John Isner (18)
9 of the top 20 players in the world on the ATP side are in playing in D.C. this year as it’s one of the best fields they have ever had for this tournament, headlined of course by the three top 10, and two top 5 names in the draw, Murray, Nishikori, and Cilic.
First round matchups to watch:
Ricardas Berankis vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
Berankis is 6-2 in his last eight hard court matches and comes off of the quarterfinals in Atlanta where he lost to eventual champion John Isner. He’s once more been spending time on the challenger tour this year but he’s still always had the talent to do better than that. Lu, the steady baseline ball striker, suffered a tough round 2 loss to Vasek Pospisil in Atlanta and his form is somewhat questionable. Lu is predictable and ranked slightly higher, but Berankis will have his chances to advance from this competitive contest.
Donald Young, a loser of six straight, will take on the wild card Tommy Haas who is still working on his injury recovery tour (2-4 record since returning to tour). Haas is aging but always a talent, and Young appears entirely devoid of confidence at the moment, though he’s playing on his favored North American hard courts. Haas hasn’t played a hard court match since March 2014, but he will have a good chance of advancing from this match regardless.
Alexander Zverev vs. (Q)Yoshihito Nishioka
A battle between young guns, Zverev, 19, is just 1-4 in ATP level hard court matches this year but he’s a respectable 9-5 below that level, qualifying for both Marseille and Miami this year. The German much prefers clay and recently reached a semi in Bastad. The 18 year old Nishioka, who combines speedy footwork with solid power for his small frame has a much stronger hard court record of 16-9 on the year and came through qualifying with a pair of solid wins. The Delray Beach quarterfinalist Nishioka is better on this surface, and thus look for him to beat his young rival.
The 19 year old Chung is another of the young guns in the DC draw this year, but he’s struggling, just 1-5 since reaching a hard court challenger final in South Korea. Sela, the Israeli veteran who lacks power in his game but rallies well, comes off quarterfinals in Atlanta and should be used to the hot conditions. Chung has a lot of talent, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to outwit the wise Sela.
Top Half:
Andy Murray is the top seed, and he’s a fantastic 44-7 on the season with a very strong hard court record to go with that. This year only Gilles Simon and Borna Coric have beaten him outside of the top 10, and with that in mind the in-form Murray is a strong favorite to go as far as the final here. Murray’s first match is sure to come against a veteran, either Benjamin Becker or Teymuraz Gabashvili. Gabashvili hasn’t played since Wimbledon but was in good form on the challenger tour prior to that, while Becker won his first match in a while in Atlanta but still may not entirely be healthy. I have Becker winning round 1 but losing to Murray, setting the UK #1 up with a match against Berankis/Lu for a spot in the quarters.
14 seed Pablo Cuevas gets a bye but he’s just 2-4 on hard courts this year, and rarely plays hard court matches in general as he’s a clay court specialist. Murray is 2-0 against Becker, and beat Berankis, who I have reaching round 3, in the 2013 Australian Open, overall he honestly shouldn’t drop a set en route to the quarters.
Atlanta champion John Isner was serving up aces and firing winners as he dominated the field in his title run, and presuming he doesn’t have too much fatigue he should continue that in D.C. on the same surface. Isner is twice a finalist in Washington and should have no trouble against Nicolas Jarry/Victor Estrella in round 2. Jarry is a clay court specialist but gets a wild card, while Estrella is merely an average player on hard courts. From there Isner is likely to face Atlanta semifinalist Vasek Pospisil, presuming Pospisil can physically recover from a grueling tournament in which he suffered cramping in the heat. Pospisil defends final points this year and will face Young/Haas round 2, Haas could trouble him, but I see Isner reaching the quarters and knocking him out. Pospisil is 2-1 against Isner but all of their matches have been close and Isner seems to have the form edge. Both players are big servers, but if Isner continues to win tiebreaks like he did in Atlanta that’ll be the difference.
Richard Gasquet should be in upset alert in his first match however, as Gilles Muller, the big serving veteran, is in excellent hard court form and could shock him. Muller, a semifinalist in singles and finalist in doubles in Atlanta, will face a struggling Malek Jaziri round 1 and has to win that before facing Gasquet. He also holds a 2-1 hard court record over the Frenchman, and presuming he’s not fatigued I have Muller upsetting Gasquet and then beating Jack Sock to reach the quarters. Sock struggled in the Atlanta heat and played poorly there but he’s still an American hard court talent with his dangerous forehand. His play in Atlanta aside he should beat Ruben Bemelmans/Marinko Matosevic in round 2, as Matosevic finally qualified and reached a main draw. Bemelmans has a solid hard court record but almost all of it comes below the main tour level and Matosevic has a h2h edge, his awful form this year aside. Sock should beat Bemelmans/Matosevic and then lose for a second time this year to Muller, as he also lost in a third set tiebreak in Indian Wells.
Grigor Dimitrov will have an easy round 2 match, as Atlanta finalist Marcos Baghdatis is nursing a leg injury, while qualifier Guido Pella prefers clay. It’s hard to predict that round 1 match, but regardless Dimitrov, who is a rather pedestrian 9-6 on hard courts this year, should first be tested in round 3 against either Steve Johnson or Bernard Tomic, both of whom could upset him. Tomic, the Bogota champion, will face Johnson in round 2, presuming Stevie J beats Lukas Lacko for the second week in a row. Their match in Atlanta went to three sets. Tomic is always hard to predict and he lost to Johnson on grass this year, but judging from his play in Bogota I have him reaching round 3 and then upsetting Dimitrov, who he is 0-2 against. Dimitrov simply seems to be in a malaise this year, and I feel Tomic is actually playing better.
Kei Nishikori is 17-5 on outdoor hard courts in 2015 and a solid 38-9 on the year overall, he may struggle in the heat but I still see him advancing past Ryan Harrison in his first match, presuming the qualifier Harrison beats James Duckworth. Nishikori has twice beaten Harrison this year as he simply does what Harrison does better from the baseline, along with being quicker. Kei should be on a minor upset alert in round 3 however, as Denis Kudla is in the form of his career and is on track to face him. Kudla, a semifinalist in Atlanta, has been on fire since he hired Billy Heiser as his coach, and appears to be fully committed to playing his best tennis. Denis, who is from D.C., should roll past Blaz Rola, then upset the seed Leonardo Mayer, who prefers clay (5-4 on hard courts in 2015), before facing Nishikori. Kei has a lone h2h win over Kudla, and Kudla is sort of a poor man’s Nishikori, still the heat factor may sway the match in the American’s favor. I don’t have him winning it, but I do see him coming close, though Nishikori is a quarterfinalist in my bracket.
Former finalist Viktor Troicki is in good form but he could have some trouble against the massive server Sam Groth in round 2. Troicki beat Groth this year on grass though, and the Aussie will need to defeat Thomaz Bellucci, who comes off of European clay where he posted solid results, in round 1. I have Troicki over Groth, and then past another great server, Feliciano Lopez, to reach the quarterfinals. Lopez comes off a semifinal on Gstaad clay, but he’s just 7-5 on hard courts this year, and could struggle in the hot conditions. The Spanish lefty will open with either Lleyton Hewitt or qualifier J.P. Smith as Hewitt continues his farewell tour against his in-form countryman. It’s hard to predict how Hewitt will do, but I still see him slipping past Smith before losing to Lopez. Hewitt is 4-1 against Lopez but he’s not the same player he once was. Troicki beat Lopez this year on clay, and otherwise has been in better form all season.
Marin Cilic, the defending US Open champion, has hardly played any hard court tennis this season, but his form has been improving steadily since returning from injury, and he appears to be back in top 20ish form in the least. Cilic should advance with relative ease over Sela/Chung but Sam Querrey could trouble him in the third round. Cilic is 3-0 against Querrey, but Querrey has been in good form while playing World Team Tennis for the local Washington Kastles. He’s actually an awful 1-6 on outdoor hard at the ATP level this year but he should beat Go Soeda/qualifier Darian King to reach round 3. King is making his ATP main draw debut at 23, while Soeda comes off a quarterfinal result in Atlanta. Look for Querrey over Soeda, and then Cilic past Querrey to secure a quarterfinal berth.
Big servers dominate the section above Cilic’s, as Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic are seeded. Anderson is an excellent 11-4 over his last 15 matches (and 15-8 on hard courts this year). Presuming the South African is healthy and can maintain the form that nearly saw him upset Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, he should dispatch Nishioka/Zverev and setup a meeting with Karlovic in round 3. Dr. Ivo was reportedly “crammed into a coach seat” on a flight to D.C. but hopefully he can stretch out against 2012 Champion Alexandr Dolgopolov/Tim Smyczek. Dolgo beat Smyczek this year in Delray (2-0 h2h), and though he comes off a tough loss in Atlanta, Smyczek is in atrocious form and thus the Ukrainian has the edge. Dolgo has two previous hard court h2h wins over Ivo but he lost to him in a close Wimbledon 5 setter this year, and Karlovic was a Newport finalist and Bogota semifinalist in recent weeks, showing his good form. Prior to that he also reached the quarters in Den Bosch and the semis in Halle.
Anderson is 3-1 against Karlovic in the h2h and their styles are very similar, with both using big serves to setup the rest of their game, except two or three tiebreaks as being a strong possibility, but Anderson is higher ranked and should reach the quarters by doing the same thing, at a higher level.
I have the big serving Muller, who also has crisp volleys and returned better than he usually does in Atlanta, dealing with hot conditions once more and reaching yet another ATP semifinal in D.C., getting farther than that will be a tough ask, but the veteran has a great chance to continue to post good results and earn ranking points this week. He’ll have to upset Gasquet and likely Tomic/Dimitrov to get that far, but it’s a doable result given how much pressure he places on his opponents to hold their serves.
Predictions
Quarters:
Murray d. Isner
Murray, one of the best pure returners in the game, is 4-0 against Isner, and though it should be a close match it’s hard to justify anyone but Murray reaching the semifinals in the first section this week.
Muller d. Tomic
If we do get a Muller vs. Tomic quarter, rather than Gasquet (6-4 on outdoor hard in 2015), Dimitrov or another name, Muller has the decided edge as he leads the h2h 4-0 and beat Tomic this year in Sydney. It’s a tough section to predict, but Muller has been impressive as of late and I see him making a shock run to the semifinals.
Cilic d. Anderson
Cilic is 5-1 against Anderson and though they aren’t that far apart in terms of ranking, Cilic has never lost to Kev on a hard court. Look for the Wimbledon quarterfinalist to follow up that result with a semifinal in D.C.
Nishikori d. Troicki
Nishikori is 4-1 against Troicki and has two wins against him this year, suggesting a matchup mismatch more than anything else. If Kei gets this far, he should reach the semis.
Semis: Murray d. Muller
Cilic d. Nishikori
Murray is 3-0 against Muller with two wins against him this year, same as was true against Isner, he’s one of the bets returners in the game and can neutralize big servers. Regardless of who faces in the semis, he’s a clear favorite for the final, and in fact the title itself.
We could have a rematch of the US Open final in the semis as Nishikori holds a 5-3 edge over Cilic in their rivalry, but Cilic has won all three of his matches on outdoor hard court (twice at the US Open). It’s hard to predict either way, but I feel Cilic is grooving into form and the conditions will favor him to reach the final.
Final: Murray d. Cilic
Murray is 10-2 against Cilic, and thus Nishikori would actually have a better chance to upset him in the final, regardless, look for Murray to claim his fourth ATP title this year, which would also be his first on hard courts. The absence of Djokovic and Federer makes this his tournament to lose as he preps for the US Open.
Two Americans and two ATP World Tour European veterans reached the semifinals of the 2015 BB&T Atlanta Open, here is a recap of the action, and what to look forward to today.
John Isner showed signs of knee soreness but he still put up a fantastic performance against Lithuanian ball striker Ricardas Berankis. Berankis, who lost 7-6(5) 6-4, didn’t play poorly, but he simply lacked the physical stature to be able to deal with big John’s serve, and he didn’t put enough variety in his game to really shake Isner up.
In the first set zero break points were faced by either player as they held steady but Berankis lost just one point in the tiebreak to go down 4-2, and after that the result was practically sealed as Isner served his way to capturing the first set. Berankis lacked the power to keep Isner back and the match was always the on the American #1’s racquet, presuming his knee was ok and he had mobility. Berankis continued to lose steam dealing with Isner’s diving kick serve, and after failing to break on Isner’s first service game of the second set, with two break point chancs gone, he got broken on his own in the next game to go 2-1 down. From there the result was again predictably sealed as Isner held his serve in dominant fashion the rest of the way, including a love hold in the final game to post another quality result in Atlanta. Isner finished with 19 aces and won well over 70% of his service points, including 84% on first serves.
Denis Kudla moved to 17-2 at all levels since he started working with coach Billy Heiser (of Tim Smyczek fame), Kudla is playing at a career best presently, and it showed against Israeli veteran Dudi Sela in a brisk 7-5 6-0 win. Sela started slow, going 5-1 down in the blink of an eye, and he never really recovered as you got the vibe he lacked the power needed to bother Kudla’s groundstrokes and he was never really fit going into the match. Kudla suffered a collapse as it went back to 5-5 from 5-1, but he recovered and won the next two games, including a break of serve to take the first set 7-5.
In the second Sela generated no break points and was promptly bageled in a mere 22 minutes, his final statline showing just 1 ace in what was a miserable performance for him, and a fantastic one for Kudla, who by virtue of being a qualifier, has won two more matches than any other player left in the Atlanta field.
In the night matches, Gilles Muller continued to have a dominant week in Atlanta under the radar. The big serving veteran has yet to play a difficult match as he beat Go Soeda 7-5 6-1 in just over an hour. Surprisingly, Muller is routinely breaking serve this tournament in his matches, though he normally struggles to generate breaks statistically. Muller hit 16 aces, and was an amazingly perfect 27/27 on first serve points. He faced just one break point and broke three times on his own as Soeda was under pressure on serve all through the first set, and finally wilted under it. He faced break points (x2) at 2-3, then three more, that were also set points at 4-5, only to be broken serving 5-6. He failed to win another game from 1-1 in the second set.
Marcos Baghdatis put on a fantastic performance against the #2 seed Vasek Pospisil winning 6-4 7-6(5). Baghdatis dominated the flow and pace of the match more than the scoreline would suggest, but Pospisil was a pesky customer who wasn’t easily closed out.
The aggressive offensive baseliner Baghdatis roared out to a 5-1 lead after an extremely long first service game for Pospisil. Vasek was struggling with his serve, and after fending off four break points, he caved on the fifth, then caved again to go down 3-0, a double break. However Baghdatis seemed to lose focus and wasn’t playing with the steady aggression that built up his lead, he had three break point/set points at 1-5, and couldn’t convert as Vasek played great up against the wall. He was then broken after two more set point chances in another long service game. Pospisil generated his first break points in this game and finally broke on his third chance in the game, holding with ease to go to 4-5.
With his final chance to close the set out looming, Baghdatis upped his service speed and did what he needed to do to take the first set. Even with the shift in momentum towards a more balanced match, he did get it done on set point #6 for a 6-4 set.
The second set was far more competitive and the match looked like it might go a third set, Pospisil had broken out of his haze, and Baghdatis was starting to post more errors with is aggressive game. With his serve not as much of a weapon, and Pospisil serving better, Baghdatis had to fight to win the groundstroke battle, as he saved the lone break point chance of the set serving 1-2. From there, not another game in the match would even go to deuce.
In what was a close tiebreak Pospisil was 5-4 up at one point, but then Baghdatis reeled off three points in a row, with a fantastic volley coming forward, and an incredible forehand passing shot winner that buzzed Pospisil. Baghdatis took the breaker 7-5, and with a passioate scream reached the semifinals. Throughout the tournament the veteran has been passionate, fired up, and incredibly motivated, looking to get the crowd into the match and fuel himself with fist pumps, and energetic shouts, as he’s cemented himself as a fan-favorite.
Fish/Roddick Fall in Doubles
In doubles the Mardy Fish/Andy Roddick pairing finally lost the plot, falling 7-5 6-2 to professional doubles specialists Eric Butorac and Artem Sitak in the late match. Chris Eubanks and Donald Young extended their surprising doubles success 4-6 7-6(5) 10-2 against Austin Krajicek/Nick Monroe, as the GA Tech product is earning some meaningful ATP experience this week.
Isner vs. Kudla, Muller vs. Baghdatis in Saturday Semifinals
Four players who are all in excellent form and have more or less dominated this tournament will meet in the semifinals, while in doubles Eubanks/Young will look to pull off a miracle against the world #1 Bryan Brothers, and Butorac/Sitak will face Fleming/Muller, as Muller pulls double duty on the day.
Isner and Kudla will be meeting for the first time, which is as surprising to me as Muller and Baghdatis also meeting for the first time, the former being American circuit regulars, and the latter being ATP veterans.
Isner’s serve has been utterly dominant this week, though knee swelling could be an issue, while Kudla has been great from the ground and has hit the ball with a lot of pop. He’s playing the tennis of his career, and he should have enough power and the physique to bother Isner, but it’s still Isner in Atlanta on an outdoor hard court, and it’s hard to see how he’s going to lose a pair of tiebreaks in a match. The key for Kudla will be to stay aggressive on return, hold his serve, and go for a break, because Isner is simply too good in breakers.
Baghdatis, who already chopped down Sam Groth with his massive serve, will get to deal with Muller’s in a match that should feel a bit like groundhog day for him. Muller has been on fire on serve and coming to net, but he’s also found it rather easy to break serve this week. Baghdatis is playing some of his best tennis of the season and seems passionate, motivated and fit, but Muller still poses a difficult ask as his clean ball striking and baseline play isn’t the best matchup. Muller will likely jump on his serve enough to squeak out the match as we should be looking at a lot of holds in the semifinals.
Undersized Berankis and Sela Pull off Big 2015 BB&T Atlanta Open Victories (Thursday Recap) Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Two of the smallest players on the ATP World Tour, Ricardas Berankis and Dudi Sela pulled off big wins on Thursday at the 2015 BB&T Atlanta Open.
Berankis reached just his second ATP quarterfinal of the season with a surprisingly dominant upset of world #48 Steve Johnson 6-4 6-2 in just over an hour. The first set was cagey and close with two early breaks of serve but Johnson was the one who blinked in a crucial moment at the end of the first set, as he was broken to go down 5-4 and the tenacious Lithuanian ball striker followed that break up with a love hold to take the first set.
Berankis in action
There was a rain delay that last less than a half hour in between sets, and Johnson cmae out struggling in the second, as he promptly went down a double break and 4-0, and looked entirely rattled, firing errors off his forehand side and failing to do damage with his serve. By contrast Berankis was moving well, striking the ball with both speed and slice, and his serve was a tough customer as Johnson shanked a lot of returns. The American failed to recover from a slow restart and slumped to a 6-2 second set loss.
Defending finalist Dudi Sela of Israel reached his first ATP quarterfinal of 2015 as he scored a quality win over fellow veteran Benjamin Becker for the second year in a row in Atlanta. Played on the sunbaked grandstand Sela prevailed 7-5 6-3.
Sela
The match began with consistent and routine holds of serve by both players, Becker had the stronger serve and was untroubled through three games, while Sela did well with is one handed backhand and mixed in variety 3-3. At 3-4 Sela had to save a break point in what was a long and tough deuce game with the first set hanging in the balance. Becker simply lacked consistency on his groundstrokes and wasn’t rallying well on the day, as he failed to break, and broken in his own right at 5-5, eventually dropping the first set 7-5.
In the second Sela continued to battle away and keep the pressure on Becker, as the German’s level dropped considerably. Becker got broken for 2-1, had to save 5 break points from 0-40 down at 2-4, and then was broken one final time to drop the second set 6-3. His back didn’t seen to be bothering him, but Sela showed superior fight and had a more interesting game. In the final game of the match he approached the net on a netcord and hit a no look volley. The Israeli, who has a full team this with him this week, clearly enjoys playing in Atlanta as he stays alive in the quest to defend his final points from 2014.
Sela with fans in Atlanta
Two Americans also advanced in singles, John Isner edged out two tough tiebreaks against Radek Stepanek 7-6(3) 7-6(7) in two hours of play. The first set featured multiple rain drop interruptions as Stepanek couldn’t hold onto an early break. Stepanek had to save two break points at 5-5, and had a half chance at a break up 6-5 but he couldn’t convert and Isner played a more consistent and superior tiebreak.
Isner on serve
The Czech’s first serve was lacking, and he had more double faults than aces. Given Isner applies a lot of pressure on his opponents by holding serve nearly every time, Stepanek was consistently under the gun when he had to serve up so many second serves. Additionally Stepanek, who normally plays an aggressive brand of tennis and enjoys coming to net, was pushed back, and kept back to the baseline by Isner’s imposing size. Stepanek, who hasn’t played a lot of matches this year, didn’t seem comfortable in his rallying abilities side to side and thumped more groundstroke errors than you’d normally see from him. Forced back, and facing a serve that kicked and spun at or above his head on a constant basis, he appeared frustrated and searching for answers, answers that he never found as he was clearly out of sorts.
Stepanek vs Isner as fans watch on
Stepanek, as in the first set, went up an early break in the second and was 4-2 up, with two chances at a 5-2 double break lead, however Isner beared down and with the fans behind him kept fighting in the set. He broke on his third break point chance in the game for 4-4, then with the momentum swinging in his favor forced Stepanek to save two match points serving 4-5.
Going into the tiebreak it seemed likely Stepanek’s inconsistent serve would let him down, and that it did as the only minibreak went to Isner, and he went on to serve out the tiebreak 9-7, his match win boosted by 33 aces. The twice defending champion remains not only a fan favorite, but a top talent in this tournament, and a difficult opponent to get past.
#3 seed Jack sock proved to not be a difficult opponent to get past for his countryman Denis Kudla. Kudla may well be in the best form of his career as he upset Sock 7-6(6) 6-3. The match began with the players trading breaks, and they would do that handoff once more as it went to 5-5. From there Kudla had to save three break points to prevent Sock from being able to serve from the set, and then it went to a tiebreak. The baseline battler Kudla was hitting the ball with flat pace, while Sock appeared rushed for time on his returns, and his forehand especially was posting uncharacteristic errors and shanks.
Sock vs. Kudla
Both players had weak serves and the tiebreak was all about rallying and return, Kudla had to save a set point, but he did so comfortably and took a lead over Sock he wouldn’t relinquish.
In the second Kudla went up an early break, and held easily to 4-3. Sock had two break point chances to dig himself back into the match there but oncemore he couldn’t convert, and with the unforced errors piling up Sock lost his fighting spirit and collapse out of the tournament in straight sets. For such a rising young talent, Sock has to be aiming for more in the rest of the Emirates US Open Series tournaments.
In doubles Fleming/Muller beat Baghdatis/Jaziri 7-6(8) 6-2, as Muller continues his winning ways. Additionally the Bryan brothers had a surprisingly tough 7-6(5) 7-6(4) win over Huey/Johnson. The Bryans started off on fire and clicking, 5-1 up, but Huey/Johnson fought their way back and had a legitimate chance at a shocking upset, however the chemistry and consistency of the brothers resulted in them winning the pair of tiebreaks.
Baghdatis-Pospisil Marquee Friday Match
Baghdatis
Four singles quarterfinals, and two doubles matches will take place on Friday. In doubles Eubanks/Young will face Krajicek/Monroe, and Fish/Roddick will look to continue their winning partnership over Butorac/Sitak.
The four singles quarterfinal matches are headlined by the first ever meeting between former top 15 veteran Marcos Baghdatis, and the tenacious Vasek Pospisil, who survived cramps to get this far. Pospisil is a battler with a big serve, and Baghdatis has been in excellent form this tournament, upsetting the big serving Sam Groth in the previous round.
Additionally the big serving Gilles Muller will look to move to 5-0 against defensive baseliner Go Soeda in a match that should be a style clash. Kudla will face the undersized Sela in a match that should feature variety ball striking, and Berankis will try to topple John Isner after a three set loss against him in Houston 2013.
Grass court qualifying in two places, both 500 level events with two rounds of qualifying action, took place over the weekend, as some interesting names booked their place in the main draw.
ATP Halle Qualifying
In Halle, defending finalist Alejandro Falla is the strongest of the qualifiers. Last year Falla made a surprise run to that final and he’s also reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon previously in his career. The veteran lefty has a game built for grass and he comfortably defeated Janko Tipsarevic and Tim Puetz, without dropping a set, to qualify.
Another of the four qualifiers in total is lefty Jarkko Nieminen who beat Filip Krajinovic and Tatsuma Ito without dropping a set. Nieminen isn’t a grass court specialist by any stretch of the imagination but he’s fast on his feet and plays aggressively.
A pair of talented but underachieving players also qualified, Slovak Lukas Lacko, now 27,has an aggressive and powerful game built for grass and he beat two solid opponents, Peter Gojowczyk and Jurgen Melzer in three sets to qualify. Lacko faces Falla in round 1. 24 year old Ricardas Berankis upset Austin Krajicek in three sets, and Vasek Pospisil 6-3 6-3 to qualify. The undersized ball striker was a top junior but has been a bust as a pro.
Berankis will have a winnable round 1 match against Tommy Robredo in round 1, while Nieminen could also advance as he faces Alexander Zverev, a wild card, in round 1.
ATP London Queens Qualifying
Sixteen players participated in the qualifying competition at the Aegon Championships, which is held at the Queen’s Club in London.
Italian world number 56 Simone Bolelli was the top seed in the qualifying draw and experienced little trouble. After a straight sets win over Lucas Pouille in the first round, he faced France’s Edouard Roger-Vasselin. The Frenchman produced an impressive performance at the tournament last year when he reached the third round in the singles draw as well as the semi-final in the doubles. Bolelli however, experience no trouble as he dropped his service once on his way to winning 7-6 (4), 6-3.
In the main draw the Italian faces a tough encounter against Richard Gasquet. Bolelli has played Gasquet on five previous occasions and has lost all of them. Their most recent match was earlier this year at the Doha Open where Gasquet eased his way to a 6-3, 6-2, win. Gasquet could face pressure but I presume he’ll prevail.
Rendy Lu was pushed hard during his match against Denis Istomin. The second seed produced a straight sets win over the talented Luca Vanni in the first round whilst Istomin edged his way past Go Soeda. During the match there was only two breaks of serve, one each, as both sets went into tie-breaks with Lu winning 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5).
The reward for Lu is a first round showdown against top seed Andy Murray. He has beaten Murray once before which was in the first round of the 2008 Beijing Olympic games. Since then, Murray has won their two most recent encounters (both in 2013) without dropping a set. Murray should blast through the weaponless Lu to reach round 2.
The biggest surprise was the impressive run by 18-year-old wild card Jared Donaldson. The American knocked out third seed and fellow countryman Tim Smyczek in the first round to face Tobias Kamke. Kamke has experienced a disastrous 2015 so far with only one main draw win to his name. His sole win was against Vincent Millot in Montpellier last February. The misery continued for the German as Donaldson cruised to take the match 7-5, 6-3. Donaldson is currently at a ranking high of 152 in the world and won his first Challenger title in Maui at the start of the year.
Donaldson, the American number 12, will play America’s number 1 John Isner in the first round. Given Isner’s experience, he should win comfortably.
Finally hopes of a British winner in the qualification draw were ended after Paul-Henri Mathieu beat Brydan Klein during the battle of the wild card’s. The former world number 12 produced a three sets win over 4th seed Chung Hyeon in the first round. Mathieu, who hasn’t won a title since 2007, required just over an hour on the court to break the British world number 188 6-3,6-2.
Mathieu will play Stuttgart finalist Viktor Troicki in the first round. Troicki’s run to the final in Germany has clearly demonstrated that the Serbian is currently in impressive shape, especially with his serve. On the other hand, there will be questions about how tired he will be coming into Queen’s. The two players have been drawn to play each other on three previous occasions but none of the matches got completed with one of the retiring (Troicki twice and Mathieu once). Presuming Troicki doesn’t retire and keep up the trend, his superior form should win him the day.
Tennis Atlantic 