2016 Busan, Aix en Provence, Karshi and Rome Challenger Previews & Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Busan Open Challenger Tour Tennis
ATP Challenger Tour
Busan, Korea
2-8 May 2016
Hardcourt, Rebound Ace
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ricardas Berankis (55)
2: John Millman (66)
3: Sam Groth (80)
4: Hyeon Chung (84)
5: Tatsuma Ito (104)
6: Lukas Lacko (113)
7: Yuichi Sugita (114)
8: Michael Berrer (115)
The last direct acceptance is Ti Chen, ranked 213th.
First round match-up to watch
(4) Hyeon Chung – Konstantin Kravchuk
19-year-old Chung peaked at a ranking of #51 in October, but still struggles with the transition to main tour tennis, having dropped to his current ranking of #82 and now trying to increase his ranking again by playing a Challenger. Hopefully this won’t be a recurring theme, because in the long run he will be better off facing stronger opposition in main tour events. Chung has already shown he is above Challenger level and will likely pick up another title here.
Top Half
Top seed Ricardas Berankis has successfully played a lot of tennis in the past couple of weeks and one has to imagine he is starting to feel tired. He might reach the semi-final solely based on how far above the rest of his opposition he will be skill wise, but it won’t be enough to beat Chung. Like Chung, let’s hope Berankis can settle down on the main tour for good now that he has increased his ranking close to the top 50 with a lot of Challenger tennis.
Bottom Half
Third seed Sam Groth has not returned well from foot surgery and is currently in very bad form. He is projected to meet Daniel Evans in the second round, who won a title last week, which will probably be the end of the road for Groth. Second seed John Millman is the favorite to come out of this half, but he has a very tricky draw, which might see him get upset prematurely. Millman faces Austin Krajicek in the first round, after which his projected path consists of respectively Sergiy Stakhovsky, Michael Berrer and Daniel Evans.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Chung d. Berankis
Millman d. Evans
Final:
Chung d. Millman
Open du Pays d’Aix-Trophee Caisse d’Epargne
ATP Challenger Tour
Aix en Provence, France
2-8 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €85,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Lukas Rosol (65)
2: Diego Schwartzman (87)
3: Rogerio Dutra Silva (101)
4: Stephane Robert (116)
5: Mischa Zverev (129)
6: Elias Ymer (132)
7: Daniel Brands (135)
8: Maximo Gonzalez (136)
The last direct acceptance is Tristan Lamasine, ranked 203rd. Former world #25 Julien Benneteau received a wildcard.
First round match-up to watch
Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Kimmer Coppejans
22-year-old Coppejans looked to be on the verge of breaking through many times, but can’t seem to make the step to main tour level. He cracked the top 100 almost a year ago, but has only regressed since, now being ranked 165th. He faces a tricky veteran in former world #35 Roger-Vasselin, who despite dropping to his current ranking of #190 is still a tough draw. However, if his ranking doesn’t improve soon he might retire from singles altogether and focus on his doubles career, where he is ranked 17th.
Top Half
Top seed Lukas Rosol might be by far the best ranked player in this half, you can’t call him by far the most likely to advance to the final. He hasn’t been in good form lately and there will be many tricky players on his path. Sixth seed Elias Ymer is his projected quarterfinal opponent and the 20-year-old is in good form, having won the Barletta Challenger two weeks ago. The same goes for Mischa Zverev, who comes off a tournament win at the Sarasota Challenger. Although it has to be said the green clay in the United States and the red clay here are a world of difference.
Bottom Half
Diego Schwartzman is the second seed, but I think it’s unlikely he will play here, having just won his first ATP title at Istanbul yesterday. Perhaps veteran fourth seed Stephane Robert can profit, being placed in a quarter with seventh seed Daniel Brands, who prefers faster courts. I would say Brands even is an underdog to get past his first round match against Renzo Olivo, who is likely to battle it out with Robert for a place in the semi-final. The winner of that match will be the favorite to reach the final as well.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Rosol d. Dutra Silva
Olivo d. Monteiro
Final:
Rosol d. Olivo
Karshi Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Karshi, Uzbekistan
2-7 May 2016
Hardcourt, Plexipave
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Dudi Sela (78)
2: Karen Khachanov (128)
3: Radu Albot (151)
4: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (197)
5: Amir Weintraub (198)
6: Denys Molchanov (224)
7: Dmitry Popko (230)
8: Aslan Karatsev (231)
The last direct acceptance is Ilya Ivashka, ranked 365th.
First round match-up to watch
(2) Karen Khachanov – Aleksandre Metreveli
Khachanov is really breaking through this year, currently ranked at a career high #128 after a great showing at the ATP 500 event of Barcelona. There he beat Aljaz Bedene, before adding an impressive top 20 victory over Roberto Bautista Agut to his résumé in the second round. Even though that was a clay event, he is equally as good on hardcourt and should be the clear favorite to reach the final here. There an interesting encounter with top seed Dudi Sela is projected, who won the Shenzhen Challenger last month and reached two other Challenger semi-finals.
Draw
I already gave away my expected final and it’s difficult to see another outcome, with Sela and Khachanov clearly being ahead of the rest of the field. This can also be seen in the rankings, with third seed Radu Albot ranked outside of the top 150, while fourth seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov is only barely ranked inside of the top 200.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Sela d. Albot
Khachanov d. Nedovyesov
Final:
Khachanov d. Sela
Roma Garden Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Rome, Italy
2-7 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Jiri Vesely (63)
2: Kyle Edmund (89)
3: Horacio Zeballos (91)
4: Adam Pavlasek (109)
5: Filip Krajinovic (110)
6: Jordan Thompson (118)
7: Kenny De Schepper (148)
8: Vincent Millot (149)
The last direct acceptance is Axel Michon, ranked 217th.
First round match-up to watch
(1) Jiri Vesely – Marsel Ilhan
Novak Djokovic will be relieved, one less thing to worry about in Madrid this week, as the man who took him out in Monte Carlo is playing a Challenger this week. Vesely is prioritizing this event over playing qualifying in Madrid, a decision certainly made before that legendary victory over the world number one. Vesely has been handed a good draw, with the players who could potentially threaten him being placed in the bottom half, so he is a big favorite to reach the final.
Top Half
As said, Vesely has a comfortable draw, being placed in a quarter with mostly players who don’t even have clay as their favorite surface. In the semi-final he is likely to faced third seed Horacio Zeballos or Adrian Ungur. Ungur faces fifth seed Filip Krajinovic in the first round, a rematch of their first round match in Istanbul last week, which Ungur comfortably won 6-3 6-3. Ungur then went on to massively threaten second seed and eventual runner-up Grigor Dimitrov in the second round, with the match ending 7-5 4-6 7-5.
Bottom Half
Second seed Kyle Edmund should be able to comfortably get through to at least the semi-final, where he is projected to face the in-form fourth seed Adam Pavlasek or sixth seed Jordan Thompson, who won the Anning Challenger last week. Pavlasek has already reached three Challenger finals this year, although he lost them all, one of which to Thompson in Cherbourg. Nevertheless, Edmund should be a decent favorite against either one of them.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Vesely d. Zeballos
Edmund d. Pavlasek
Final:
Vesely d. Edmund
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