Rafael Nadal Has Clear Path to Another Roland Garros Final Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The first week of action is complete in Paris, and Rafael Nadal remains the favorite to capture yet another French Open title. Here is a look at the 16 remaining men hoping to capture glory at Roland Garros, and a look at whether anyone can topple Rafa.
Rafael Nadal, the tournament favorite, was challenged early by Simone Bolelli, the Italian veteran pushed him to a tiebreak but Nadal still won in straight sets. His second and third round matches were routs as he dominated Guido Pella and home favorite Richard Gasquet, surrendering just 11 games over 6 sets.
Fourth round opponent Max Marterer has extended his career year with a fantastic run at Roland Garros. The young German has a bright future, as evidenced by his wins against Ryan Harrison and Jurgen Zopp in straights, and Denis Shapovalov, another ATP young gun, in 4 sets. Zopp, a journeyman veteran, upset Jack Sock earlier in the tournament, and given his opposition, Marterer has really not been challenged.
All of that said, Nadal should blow past his lower ranked and less experienced opponent and I don’t see him dropping a set.
Reaching week 2 is a solid result for both players. Schwartzman hasn’t dropped a set, defeating Calvin Hemery, Adam Pavlasek, and Borna Coric with ease. Anderson dropped sets against Pablo Cuevas and Mischa Zverev in rounds 2 and 3, after a straight set win over Paolo Lorenzi in round 1.
Form would favor Schwartzman, but Anderson is a bit more accomplished and I’ll still tip him to edge this contest. This is a clash between one of the ATP’s shortest players, against one of the ATP’s tallest.
Cilic will be the favorite after dropping just one set in three matches, but Fognini has always had the potential to make noise on clay. The Croatian defeated James Duckworth and Steve Johnson in straights, dropping a set to Hubert Hurkacz in round 2.
Fognini had to survive a five set test against Kyle Edmund where he came back from 2 sets to 1 down to prevail. His other wins came with ease against Pablo Andujar and Elias Ymer. I’ll go with Cilic by a small margin.
A great opportunity for either player. Isner has beaten Noah Rubin and Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straights, and Horacio Zeballos in 4 sets to reach this stage. Del Potro dropped a set in round 1 against Nicolas Mahut but then breezed past Julien Benneteau and Albert Ramos.
Isner is actually a solid player on clay, but Del Potro is more well rounded and should win this.
David Goffin will face an opponent he just defeated in Rome. Goffin saved four match points against Gael Monfils and a hostile crowd in round 3, prior to that he survived a challenged from Robin Haase, who collapsed from 2 sets to love up, and put away Corentin Moutet in straights.
Cecchinato is having a career year and rising fast. The Italian defeated Marius Copil 10-8 in the 5th set, then recovered nicely to ease past Marco Trungelliti, a lucky loser who had to drive from Barcelona to accept his spot in the draw and then won his round 1 match. In the third round Cecchinato upset Pablo Carreno Busta, denying PCB a great opportunity to make a run in this soft section.
Cecchinato has a shot at another upset, but if Goffin recovers himself he’ll prevail.
Djokovic looked a bit shaky against Roberto Bautista Agut, but he still won that round 3 contest in four sets, and prior to that he got the job done in straights against Rogerio Dutra Silva and Jaume Munar.
Verdasco is having a late career resurgence on the dirt. The Spaniard with the powerful forehand was pushed to the brink against Yoshihito Nishioka, but after that five set win he defeated Guido Andreozzi and one of the higher seeds, Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. Verdasco has the talent to push Djokovic, but you can’t pick against the former champion at this stage.
The match of the round it seems, Nishikori is back in form having won in straights against Gilles Simon and Maxime Janvier, and edging Benoit Paire in 5 sets. The Japanese #1 has played at Frenchman in France three straight times, and come out a winner.
Thiem is playing incredibly well on clay right now. He won Lyon in the run up to RG and then put away Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Matteo Berrettini, dropping sets in rounds 2 and 3 but coming away the winner regardless.
This match could go either way but I’ll back Thiem’s form, this is his chance to do something memorable in Paris.
Despite being a heavy favorite in the early rounds, Zverev has struggled mightily after dispatching Ricardas Berankis in round 1. Both Dusan Lajovic and Damir Dzumhur challenged the young German star, with Lajovic succumbing to fatigue and Dzumhur failing to maintain his high level over the final 2 sets.
Khachanov has done nicely to make it this far, he’s not the strongest on clay but he put away Andreas Haider-Maurer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and home favorite Lucas Pouille to reach this stage.
Zverev has all the ability but I’m far from sold on his mindset, and thus I’ll tip Khachanov in an upset.
Predictions
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Del Potro d. Cilic
Djokovic d. Goffin
Thiem d. Khachanov
Either Del Potro or Cilic could win the right to lose to Nadal in the semis, though Del Potro has a better chance to win that semi. Djokovic should do enough to reach the semis, but Thiem has a chance to be the player of the tournament.
Semis Nadal d. Del Potro
Thiem d. Djokovic
I’ll back an upset in the second semi, but Nadal is not going to lose this championship, particularly if Djokovic doesn’t find form quickly.
Rafael Nadal vs. the Field At Roland Garros 2018: Your Full Preview Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The 2018 French Open is here and it’s top seed Rafael Nadal vs. the field, as Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Hyeon Chung are among major outs for this Grand Slam. Read on to see whether Nadal will win another French Open title, or if a new champion will emerge.
Nadal’s Quarter
Rafael Nadal will begin against Alexander Dolgopolov, with Joao Sousa or Guido Pella likely to be his next victim. Home favorite Richard Gasquet should await in round 3 unless his round 1 opponent Andreas Seppi makes a run. The Gasquet vs. Seppi winner takes on Malek Jaziri or Mikhail Youzhny. I’d be surprised if Nadal dropped a set in the opening week of the tournament.
The Denis Shapovalov vs. John Millman round 1 match could decide one of the tournament dark horses for this year. Both players have been solid on clay this year, but I’ll go with the Canadian to face off with Max Marterer (or Ryan Harrison) in round 2. Jack Sock should ease past qualifier Jurgen Zopp, and the Yuki Bhambri/Yen-Hsun Lu winner to reach round 3, with Shapovalov favored to win this section.
Diego Schwartzman should be good enough on clay to defeat Calvin Hemery and Adam Pavlasek/Mirza Basic to reach round 3. I have the veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber winning a toss-up round 1 match against Borna Coric, then defeating Thomas Fabbiano (or Matt Ebden) to reach round 3, where I’ll back him in against Schwartzman.
Kevin Anderson looks set to be a factor in week 2, his path to that stage is Paolo Lorenzi, Aljaz Bedene/Pablo Cuevas, and most likely Feliciano Lopez. Lopez faces Sergiy Stakhovsky and Mischa Zverev/Florian Mayer prior to round 3. Bedene/Cuevas have ability on this surface, but Anderson is the favorite to take the section.
Marin Cilic is in a great position to make a run, his first round opponent is James Duckworth, Hubert Hurkacz or Tennys Sandgren will be next in round 2 with Steve Johnson/Adrian Mannarino or Evgeny Donskoy/Jan-Lennard Struff set to feature in the following round. Cilic against Johnson is my expected third round matchup with Cilic advancing.
Fabio Fognini vs. Kyle Edmund in round 3 has the potential to be a thrilling contest. Fognini’s path will be Pablo Andujar, and Elias Ymer/Dudi Sela. Edmund faces Alex De Minaur, with Marton Fucsovics/Vasek Pospisil on deck. I’ll back Fognini over Edmund in the third round but the matchup could go either way.
John Isner has been presented with a tremendous opportunity, his path to the second week is countryman Noah Rubin, Horacio Zeballos/Yuichi Sugita, and most likely Tomas Berdych. Berdych is a struggling former star who opens with Jeremy Chardy, Peter Polansky/Pierre-Hugues Herbert awaits. Chardy has a real shot at upsetting Berdych, while Isner should win the section.
Juan Martin Del Potro looks set to benefit from the absence of other top stars, Del Potro faces Nicolas Mahut, Leonardo Mayer/Julien Benneteau, then most likely Casper Ruud or Albert Ramos. I’ll back the qualifier Ruud to defeat Jordan Thompson, with Ramos beating Mikhail Kukushkin before being upset by Ruud in the second round.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Grigor Dimitrov looks like the third round matchup in Dimitrov’s section, he needs to defeat Viktor Troicki, Nicolas Jarry/Jared Donaldson and either Verdasco or Taylor Fritz to reach week 2. Verdasco takes on Yoshihito Nishioka while Fritz faces Guido Andreozzi in round 1. I’ll go with Dimitrov over Verdasco in this section, with Fritz a possible dark horse.
Novak Djokovic was struggling but he found enough form to suggest he’ll be a factor in the second week. Djokovic’s path is Rogerio Dutra Silva, David Ferrer/Jaume Munar and most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in round 3. RBA needs to defeat Denis Istomin and Marcos Baghdatis or Santiago Giraldo in round 2. Ferrer is a shell of the player he was, and RBA lacks weapons, so Djokovic, presuming his serve holds up, should reach week 2.
Expect fireworks between Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic in round 1, I’ll back an upset in this section with Marco Cecchinato defeating Marius Copil and the Kyrgios/Tomic winner to reach round 3. Kyrgios fitness is a question and Tomic’s form is always a question, while the Italian has been rising. Expect Pablo Carreno Busta to roll past Jozef Kovalik, Federico Delbonis/Thomaz Bellucci, then defeat Cecchinato in round 3.
David Goffin struggled after injuring his eye, but he has been improving and Robin Haase, Ivo Karlovic/Corentin Moutet will be his first 2 opponents. Gael Monfils always thrills the fans and should beat Elliot Benchetrit in round 1, but I’ll go with qualifier Martin Klizan or Laslo Djere to upset Monfils in round 2. Goffin over Klizan is my pick for the section.
The other star player of the clay court season, Alexander Zverev, should ease past Ricardas Berankis and Dusan Lajovic/Jiri Vesely before running into Damir Dzhumur in round 3. This is a weak section for the #2 seed and I don’t see Dzumhur threatening him. The Bosnian has matches against Denis Kudla and Gregoire Barrere/Radu Albot before the third round.
Lucas Pouille has not been in good form, and despite home support I have him going down to the in-form Peter Gojowczyk in round 2. Gojowczyk faces Cam Norrie in round 1, while Pouille should get past the struggling Daniil Medvedev. Former champion Stan Wawrinka is not in good shape since returning from injury, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will take a crack at knocking him off in round 1, if that doesn’t happen, I’ll go with Karen Khachanov to beat Andreas Haider-Maurerer in round 1, and Wawrinka in round 2, before edging Gojowczyk in round 3.
Kei Nishikori looks set to roll into week 2 past Maxime Janvier, Benoit Paire/Roberto Carballes Baena and Gilles Simon or Frances Tiafoe. Simon is playing at home and taking on Nikoloz Basilashvili in round 1, with Tiafoe or Sam Querrey in round 2. Tiafoe is rising and has impressed on clay, but Simon’s pushing is always tricky. Nishikori over Simon should be the result in this section.
The final section looks to have a must-see round 2 match between Stefanos Tsitipas and Dominic Thiem. Presuming Thiem is fit he’ll beat Ilya Ivashka, while Tsitsipas should put away Carlos Taberner. I’ll go with Thiem to win a tough one then face Ernests Gulbis in round 3. The qualifier Gulbis will get help rebuilding his career with wins against Gilles Muller and Matteo Berretinni/Oscar Otte. Look for Thiem (or Tsitipas) to win out here.
Predictions
Round of 16 Nadal d. Shapovalov
Anderson d. Kohlschreiber
Cilic d. Fognini
Del Potro d. Isner
Goffin d. Carreno Busta
Djokovic d. Dimitrov
Nishikori d. Thiem
Zverev d. Khachanov
Cilic/Fognini, Del Potro/Isner, Goffin/PCB, Nishikori/Thiem and Djokovic/Dimitrov are the toss up matches here. Djokovic has the experience, Cilic is more consistent, Del Potro I trust more than Isner on clay, Nishikori should be more fit, and I feel Goffin will rise to the occasion.
Quarters Nadal d. Anderson
Cilic d. Del Potro
Djokovic d. Goffin
Zverev d. Nishikori
Nadal looks way too good to lose before the final. Despite Zverev’s poor record in Grand Slams, you have to trust his solid clay season this year (and last year) over a still out of sorts Djokovic. Nadal should take the final.
2017 Roland Garros Women’s Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennnis Atlantic
The second Grand Slam of the year has arrived and wow, it is as open as ever. Who will run out as Champion of Roland Garros? Let’s break down the draw and find out.
World number one Angelique Kerber has been anything but in number one form. The German has struggled to put together a run of results. Can she turn it around for the French Open? She has a tough opener against fellow lefty Ekaterina Makarova. The Russian always brings her best to the big events and will no doubt be a huge test for the German. If Kerber can pass that match, then she should be good to make the quarter finals. Roberta Vinci is the first projected seeded opponent, but she could have a lot of issues with Monica Puig in round one. Petra Kvitova is back as the 15th seed, and it is great to see her making her return to tour. It will be unfair to expect much though, as the in-form Sam Stosur should make it to the fourth round to face Kerber.
With Kerber’s struggles, there could be a chance for Svetlana Kuznetsova to make the semi finals again. The Russian is a former champion here but has a tough draw ahead. Christina McHale is first up, then possibly France’s Oceane Dodin, who will no doubt have the support of the home fans. Shuai Zhang is the first seeded opponent for Kuznetsova.
Clay has never been Caroline Wozniacki’s favourite surface, but the Dane will be hoping to find the form that got her to the world number one position years ago. The section is a fairly good one for the Dane, at least until the second round where she could face the in-form Kiki Bertens. The Dutchwoman impressed in Nurnberg again and is a former semi finalist here. It will not be a shock to see Bertens do well at Roland Garros again and set up a fourth round match with Kuznetsova.
The defending champion is Garbine Muguruza, and once again we do not know which version will show up. Despite struggling for most of the season last year, the Spaniard played close to her best at this tournament in 2016, and as a result went all the way. Can she repeat that success? It is a tough opener against Francesca Schiavone, then the winner of Monica Niculesu vs Ana Kontaveit will also be a test of where Muguruza is at with her game. Yulia Putintseva is the first seeded opponent.
French hopes will be heavy on Kristina Mladenovic’s shoulders. The 13th seed has been in good form this season, but will the pressure of a home crowd get to her? If we are going by game alone then Mladenovic should be safe to make the fourth round with Mirjana Lucic-Baroni being the toughest opponent in the third round. A Mladenovic vs Muguruza fourth round will be fireworks, and it looks like it will happen.
Dominika Cibulkova has not had a great clay court season, but often players can catch fire at the right time. Will the Slovak pick up her form for the French Open? She has a tough match against Lara Arruabarrena in the first round in a possible upset. That could open the door for Timea Bacsinszky to have another good run at Roland Garros.
Venus Williams has never won the French Open, but with the draw so wide open, the former world number one could make a decent run. She has a tough opener against Qiang Wang, then Daria Gavrilova as a potential third round opponent. The Aussie has been in good form recently. Can she translate it to the grand slam stage? I think she might, and it will be an unexpected fourth round against Bacsinszky that could be her reward.
Third Quarter
Simona Halep
A few weeks a go I would have labelled Simona Halep as the favourite to go all the way and win the title, but an ankle injury has put her participation in doubt. If the Romanian can fight through the pain then she should make the third round at least to face Daria Kasatkina. Elena Vesnina is the projected fourth round opponent for Halep, but the Russian could have a struggle against Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round. I think the Spaniard may get through that one and possibly go on to face Halep in the fourth round, depending on how bad her injury is. If the injury is serious then Kasatkina could make the fourth round for the first time.
Her Rome title win sets Elina Svitolina in good stead heading into Roland Garros. The Ukrainian is among the favourites in many peoples minds, but she has a very tough draw ahead of her. Svitolina opens against the streaky Yaroslava Shvedova, then she could potentially face another streaky player in Mona Barthel in the following round. Youngster Ana Konjuh is projected for round three, another tough match for the fifth seed.
Madison Keys has not played much this year due to injury, but she is always a dangerous opponent. Ashleigh Barty is a tough first round opponent, but things could get tougher in round three with Anastasija Sevastova waiting. The Latvian is possibly the favourite to go on to face Svitolina in the fourth round.
Bottom Quarter
This quarter is arguably the most open of the lot with no former Grand Slam champions in the section. Karolina Pliskova is the second seed, but she has struggled on clay in the past. The Czech has a good draw to the fourth round with Lauren Davis being the toughest opponent on the road. From there it could get difficult though with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova projected for the round of 16. The Russian could have a tough match with Lucie Safarova, and the big serving Coco Vandeweghe is the first seeded opponent. Pliskova should be safe for the fourth round, but it is tough to predict who will join her there.
Johanna Konta’s section is arguably the softest of the draw on this surface. The Brit does not perform well on clay, so do not be surprised to see her exit early. It opens the door for France’s Caroline Garcia to make the second week if she can handle the home pressure. Agnieszka Radwanska would be the favourite to make it through this section, but her lack of form is worrying. Barbora Strycova could take advantage, but this is a wide open section, solook for an unlikely fourth round match to come out of it.
There are some tough matches to predict in there. Stosur’s form and clay court prowess may be too much for Kerber. Kuznetsova vs. Bertens is a tough call, but I am going with the Russian to edge it. Form says Mladenovic beats Muguruza, but the defending champion might step up to the plate again and the home crowd could put pressure on Mladenovic. Bacsinszky should have enough to beat Gavrilova, and Halep should make the quarter finals if her ankle is back. Svitolina’s good form should carry her past Sevastova. Garcia has a good draw to finally make a grand slam breakthrough, and Pavlyuchenkova will likely beat Pliskova on this surface.
Kuznetsova vs. Stosur is a close match, but the Russian has often had the advantage on clay in their head to head matches. I think Muguruza might have played her way into form by this point to beat Bacsinszky. Halep’s injury makes it difficult to back her going too deep, so I think Svitolina is favourite for the semi finals. Home hopes will end here with Garcia unlikely being able to handle the pressure and Pavlyuchenkova beats her.
If Muguruza makes it this far, she is playing well, so I see her overcoming Kuznetsova in the semi finals. Svitolina should be too solid for Pavlyuchenkova in the other semi final.
Final:
Muguruza def. Svitolina
This will be a first Grand Slam final for Svitolina and a third for Muguruza. Experience in this situation will play a factor and I think the Spaniard will defend her title. If she is on form, then it is difficult seeing Muguruza being stopped. That said, she could easily bomb out in the first round and destroy a lot of brackets.
French Open 2017 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The second slam of the season and the pinnacle of the clay court season is upon as Roland Garros starts Sunday. Excluding Roger Federer, the world’s best are taking part in the French Open this year and here is your complete preview with predictions.
Roland Garros
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 28-June 11, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €16,790,000
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (4)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Dominic Thiem (7)
7: Marin Cilic (8)
8: Kei Nishikori (9)
Roger Federer, who is skipping RG to rest his body, is the only notable absence from the tournament.
First round matches to watch:
(1)Andy Murray vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
Murray starts another slam as the world #1, but he’s had a miserable season thus far, and although he’s never lost to Kuznetsov, he needs to watch out that he doesn’t suffer yet another early tournament defeat. Murray has reached the semis or better for three straight French Open’s, and he reached the final last year, Kuznetsov is 9-4 on clay this Spring and is a steady battler. I don’t think Kuznetsov will have enough in his arsenal to win this given his 2-16 record vs the Top 10, but Murray could slip up.
(29)Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (Q)Guido Pella
Del Potro’s best result this Spring was a quarterfinal in Rome, he’s proven himself to be a dangerous competitor on tour, despite all of the injury problems, and he serves as a bit of a dark horse this tournament. That said, Pella is 12-7 and is a respectable dirt baller, this match should go more than straight sets, and JMDP should be on upset alert.
(9)Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
The veteran Verdasco is in decline, but he’s reached the second week in Paris four times, the last coming in 2014. The young Zverev is 16-3 on clay this year, and with Murray in his section, has a potential path to the final. Germany’s young hope will be a solid favorite and beat Verdasco in Madrid this year, but he can’t get over confident as Verdasco still has the forehand necessary to notch upsets and punish his rivals if he finds his range.
(27)Sam Querrey vs. Hyeon Chung
Querrey is the seed and at 29 he’s developed a respectable clay court game, the 21 year old Chung is a difficult opponent though, he has a semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this spring and is making his move up the rankings. Chung is a name to watch in the future, and he should find a way to win this one and pull off the upset.
(18)Nick Kyrgios vs. Phlipp Kohlschreiber
The veteran Kohlschreiber has plenty of clay court experience, but he’s just 1-3 since losing the final in Casablanca. Kyrgios has lost two straight and due to personal family reasons his clay court action this year was limited. Kyrgios is the more talented player and can raise his game to a level that Kohlschreiber can no longer reach, but if Kyrgios is off, clay is not his best surface and Kohli could pull an upset.
(31)Gilles Simon vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
Basilashvili broke through in 2017 and is now a solid tour player, he is coming off the semis in Lyon while Simon carries a disappointing 4-5 record on clay this season. Simon will have home support though, and his grinding wears opponents down in slams. Basilashvili will need to bring his best tennis if he’s going to get the upset.
(23)Ivo Karlovic vs. (Q)Stefanos Tsitsipas
Despite an 0-3 tour record, the 18 year old Tsitsipas came through qualifying and soon enough he’s going to make a bang in a grand slam. Karlovic has just two wins on clay this season and it’s by far his worst surface, the tour veteran is a crafty serve and volleyer, but if the young Greek can survive an early onslaught of big serves, he should be able to notch his first ever tour level win and get a big upset.
Murray’s Quarter
Murray and Del Potro look set to meet in the third round, but Murray needs to watch out for Martin Klizan, who has a couple of clay quarterfinals and opens with wildcard Laurent Lokoli and would face Murray in round 2. Del Potro could be upset by Nicolas Almagro, who has been solid on clay this year and starts his campaign against Marcos Baghdatis, who is poor on the surface. Presuming Murray ups his game for this slam, I see him beating Del Potro and surviving some early tests to reach round 4.
Current Lyon finalist Tomas Berdych should be consistent enough to defeat J.L. Struff, the improving young gun Karen Khachanov (who opens with Nicolas Jarry), and either John Isner or Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi will face Ricardas Berankis first up while Rome semifinalist Isner will take on Jordan Thompson, who is poor on clay. Isner will probably edge the dirtballer Lorenzi in a long contest, with Berdych as the clear favorite to make the round of 16.
After taking on Verdasco, Zverev should have an easier go against either Pierre-Hugues Herbert or Jared Donaldson, in round 3 he’ll have a challenging contest against Pablo Cuevas, a semifinalist in Madrid and quarterfinalist in Monte Carlo who is excellent on clay. Cuevas starts his campaign against young qualifier Maxime Hamou, then he’ll face either Nicolas Kicker or Damir Dzumhur. Zverev has more talent than Cuevas, and I’ll make him the favorite in that match.
Look for Chung to try and pull the upset against Kei Nishikori, Asia’s best player. Nishikori hasn’t had a great clay season, but should defeat Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who opens against Radu Albot. Chung faces the Ernesto Escobedo/Denis Istomin winner in round 2. Nishikori, despite his troubles, is still superior to Chung.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Current Geneva finalist and former Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka is finding form finally after a shaky clay court season. His tournament will begin against qualifier Jozef Kovalik, Wawrinka should then finish off dirtballer Carlos Berlocq, who begins against Alexandr Dolgopolov, who is currently a shell of the player he was. The dangerous Fabio Fognini awaits in round 3, Fognini’s path begins with Frances Tiafoe, an American young gun looking to improve on clay, and then he should face his Italian countryman Andreas Seppi, presuming Seppi defeats veteran Santiago Giraldo. Fognini could peak and knock off Wawrinka, but Wawrinka is a more consistent player and will be the favorite to reach round 4.
Richard Gasquet is just 1-2 on clay this year, and should watch out against qualifier Arthur De Greef. The home hero looks set to clash with fellow fan favorite Gael Monfils in round 3 though, Monfils needs to defeat Dustin Brown and either Thiago Monteiro or French wild card Alexandre Muller. Gasquet’s round 2 opponent will be either Victor Estrella or Teymuraz Gabashvili, both veterans. I have Gasquet as a slight favorite against Monfils, although both players are struggling.
Current Lyon finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had been struggling, but Tsonga, the best French hope this tournament, looks to have found form and should defeat Renzo Olivo, and either Gastao Elias or Kyle Edmund before running into Kyrgios/Kevin Anderson round 3. After Kohlschreiber, Kyrgios looks set to face big server Kevin Anderson, as Anderson should defeat Malek Jaziri. I have Anderson, who has been consistent on clay this spring, upsetting Kyrgios, and then Tsonga through to the round of 16.
Istanbul champion Marin Cilic will face Ernest Gulbis, a struggling and fallen ATP star, Federico Delbonis or Konstantin Kravchuk will follow. David Ferrer, who is also struggling, should get past Donald Young, given Ferrer is better on clay, and the winner of Feliciano Lopez/Bjorn Frantagelo. This is a weak section though and Cilic should ease into round 4.
Nadal’s Quarter
Rafael Nadal, My Top SportsBook’s favorite to reclaim the French Open Title for a record tenth time, Nadal has three clay titles in hand from this spring and starts his tournament against Frenchman Benoit Paire. Paire’s form doesn’t suggest he can defeat Rafa, Robin Haase/Alex De Minaur also don’t look to be that imposing, and the winner of Viktor Troicki/Gilles Simon will probably be Nadal’s first serious test. I have Troicki defeating Evgeny Donskoy, and then Simon/Basilashvili to reach the third round. Nadal should win his first three without dropping a set.
Roberto Bautista Agut, a solid clay courter, looks set to make round 3, John Millman, and the winner of Mikhail Kukushkin/Tennys Sandgren are the only players in his path, Sandgren is rising quickly but he’s not great on clay, RBA should beat Millman and Kukushkin to setup a third round meeting with Jack Sock. Sock should beat the steady Jiri Vesely, then Aljaz Bedene/Ryan Harrison, although Bedene is a dangerous dark horse after catching fire a few weeks ago and reaching the final in Budapest. I have Sock powering past Bautista Agut for a spot in round 4.
Grigor Dimitrov has been in terrible form, he should still defeat a fading Stephane Robert and neither Tommy Robredo or Dan Evans are in good form, Taro Daniel should defeat Jerzy Janowicz before falling to Pablo Carreno Busta. PCB’s path to the fourth round goes through a struggling Florian Mayer, Daniel, and Dimitrov, a reasonable path for the Estoril champion.
Steve Darcis is at a career high ranking, but Milos Raonic looks to be in good enough form to win their round 1 clash and then defeat Rogerio Dutra Silva or Mikhail Youzhny. Gilles Muller has had his best ever clay court season, and that should help him defeat a struggling Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Marco Trungelliti/Quentin Halys in round 2. Raonic is a clear favorite to reach round 4.
Djokovic’s Quarter
Lacking a clay title this season, but working with new coach Andre Agassi, Novak Djokovic will start his French Open title defense against Marcel Granollers. The veteran Granollers is a poor singles player these days, Joao Sousa has been terrible this season, and Janko Tipsarevic may not be fit. Djokovic should ease into the third round against either current Geneva finalist Mischa Zverev or Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman will take on Andrey Rublev first up, while Zverev takes on qualifier Stefano Napolitano. Schwartzman should reach the third round on clay but is no match for Djokovic.
Although he started the clay season well, Monte Carlo finalist Albert Ramos-Vinolas is yet another struggling dirtballer in this draw. Ramos should defeat Marius Copil though, with Daniil Medvedev’s poor form likely limiting him to a defeat at the hands of Ramos after beating 20 year old wild card Benjamin Bonzi, who is making his slam debut. This is Budapest champion Lucas Pouille‘s section to lose, Pouille should have the edge against veteran Julien Benneteau, then the Frenchman should defeat Thomaz Bellucci, who begins against Dusan Lajovic. Pouille over Ramos is my pick for round 3.
The consistent David Goffin looks set to defeat qualifier Paul-Henri Mathieu, then dispatch either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Rendy Lu before running into Tsitsipas/Karlovic or Horacio Zeballos/Adrian Mannarino. Zeballos is solid on clay and thus the best bet to reach the third round before falling to Goffin.
Dominic Thiem has two finals and a semifinal this spring on clay, he’s in tremendous form and should defeat Bernard Tomic, who is poor on clay, qualifier Simone Bolelli or Nicolas Mahut, and then most likely Borna Coric, who should defeat Mathias Bourgue, and the winner of Steve Johnson/Yuichi Sugita to reach round 3. Look for Thiem to defeat the young Coric to reach the second week.
Dark Horses: Hyeon Chung, Kevin Anderson, Aljaz Bedene, and Horacio Zeballos
Chung has a nice shot at upsetting Nishikori, Anderson could upset Tsonga and make an unexpected run. Bedene could upset Sock and Bautista Agut, and Zeballos could emerge from the Goffin/Thiem section, although it’s unlikely.
Predictions
Round of 16 Murray d. Berdych
Zverev d. Nishikori
Wawrinka d. Gasquet
Tsonga d. Cilic
Carreno Busta d. Raonic
Nadal d. Sock
Thiem d. Goffin
Djokovic d. Pouille
Murray, Wawrinka, Nadal, and Djokovic, the steady warhorses of this draw should prevail, with only Murray having the chance of getting upset this early. The young Zverev and Thiem should make their moves, despite facing challenging opposition, Tsonga should nip Cilic to be the last French man standing, and I have Carreno Busta upsetting Raonic.
Quarters Zverev d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Tsonga
Nadal d. Carreno Busta
Djokovic d. Thiem
A battle of contrasts in form, I have Zverev upsetting Murray given how good of a clay court season he’s had. Wawrinka, Nadal, and Djokovic remain favorites, although Novak should watch out against Thiem.
Semis Zverev d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Djokovic
I’ll pick Rafa to take home the title, but I have Zverev as a surprise finalist. Wawrinka has not been that impressive this clay court season, and Nadal should have an edge over Djokovic on clay.
2016 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The exit of Rafael Nadal due to a wrist injury highlighted the first week of the 2016 French Open on the men’s side. Despite struggles by other top players, and a few upsets through the first three rounds, the remaining 16 players in the men’s draw are mostly seeded, and the tournament favorites outside of Nadal remain in contention. Here is a look at the round of 16, with predictions for week 2 of Roland Garros.
It’s Djokovic’s tournament to lose at this point, the world #1 has never lost to RBA, including a win on clay this year, and he’s won all three of his matches without dropping a set or even being challenged. Yen-Hsun Lu, Steve Darcis, and Aljaz Bedene simply didn’t have enough game to challenge him. Bautista Agut comes off a big win against Borna Coric, and he defeated Dmitry Tursunov and Paul-Henri Mathieu prior to that. The Spaniard is consistent, but he doesn’t have the firepower needed to defeat Djokovic. Djokovic in 3 sets
Berdych defeated Ferrer in Madrid, and he just won a big match against Pablo Cuevas in round 3. He also has wins over Vasek Pospisil and Malek Jaziri, and has dropped just a pair of sets to reach the second week. The veteran Ferrer won a four setter against Juan Monaco, and also has wins over Evgeny Donskoy and his countryman Feliciano Lopez this week. Ferrer is playing well, but I feel it’s Berdych’s time to continue the momentum and post a good quarterfinal result. Berdych in 5 sets
Thiem comes off a massive win against Alexander Zverev in four sets, and he also defeated Inigo Cervantes and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to reach week 2. He should be the immediate beneficiary of Nadal’s exit, as he’s never lost to the veteran Granollers and the Spaniard has just won true match win, that came over Fabio Fognini. Nicolas Mahut and Rafael Nadal both retired/walked over against him. Granollers will be fresh, but the young Thiem should be impeccably motivated. Thiem in 3 sets
Goffin should be favored over Gulbis, though he needed five sets to prevail against Nicolas Almagro. Prior to that he earned routine wins over Gregoire Barrere and Carlos Berlocq to reach the second week. The Belgian has a shot at reaching his first Grand Slam semifinal, but he’ll need to defeat a player who already has a semifinal in Paris on his resume, Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis encountered a lot of luck, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga retired with a groin injury while leading him in the first set, and that is what sent the underachieving Latvian into the second week. He also beat Andreas Seppi and Joao Sousa without dropping a set. Gulbis has talent, but his luck should run out as Goffin will benefit from Tsonga’s exit and reach the quarters. Goffin 4 sets
Raonic just announced that American legend John McEnroe will be his new coach, and he’s cruised through the first three rounds without dropping a set as Janko Tipsarevic, Adrian Mannarino, and Andrej Martin provided little in the way of stiff competition. The qualifier Martin shocked Lucas Pouille with a straight set win in round 2, easing the way for Raonic.
Ramos defeated Horacio Zeballos and Marco Trungelliti before prevailing in a five set war over Jack Sock to reach the second week. The Spanish veteran plays great top spin clay tennis, and over the course of a four match, only a late break was the difference against the #2 American sock. Ramos should be the most difficult opponent Raonic has faced so far, but the Canadian should serve well enough to advance as long as he plays first strike tennis. Raonic in 4 sets
Wawrinka has never lost to Troicki, and he’s the only former champion remaining in the French Open men’s draw after Nadal’s abrupt exit. The Swiss star had to survive a fifth setter with the power hitting Lukas Rosol, and he recovered quickly to win over Taro Daniel and Jeremy Chardy in straight sets. Wawrinka has been finding form and playing himself into the tournament, making him a threat to capture the title at this point. Troicki has had a remarkable tournament in his own right, he won in five sets over Grigor Dimitro, and then demolished Gilles Simon while a stunned crowd looked on and groaned. Troicki could continue his success against Wawrinka, but the most likely outcome is a win for Stan. Wawrinka in 4 sets
One of the best matchups in the round of 16, Nishikori has been playing well and he has two wins on clay against Gasquet this year, after failing to defeat the Frenchman in the past. The Japanese #1 defeated Simone Bolelli and Andrey Kuznetsov, then needed five sets against Fernando Verdasco as he couldn’t close the match out from two sets to love ahead. Gasquet beat Thomaz Bellucci, Bjorn Fratangelo, and Nick Kyrgios all without dropping a set. Kyrgios turned out to not be a difficult opponent for Gasquet this time, and the Frenchman has been playing inspired tennis in his return to Paris. Nishikori is the better player, but I honestly sense something is improved in Gasquet this tournament, and I’m going to pick him to earn an upset victory after Nishikori struggled through round 3. Gasquet is the last French hope. Gasquet in 5 sets
Andy Murray is 5-0 against Isner, and he just dominated another big server, Ivo Karlovic, in round 3. The world #2 also has a shot of winning this tournament, but he was terrible in his first two matches, barely surviving Radek Stepanek and Mathias Bourgue in the first two rounds. Murray playing five setters against a pair of lowly ranked players was a shock, he played indecisive tennis, with questionable shot selection. He can still improve though, and is a far better player than he’s shown thus far.
Isner needed a long four sets against John Millman, and had a routine win against Kyle Edmund before winning in five sets against Teymuraz Gabashvili. On clay, Murray, one of the best returners in the game, should win this matchup, he badly needs another easy win. Murray in 3 sets
Quarters Djokovic d. Berdych in 3 sets
Thiem d. Goffin in 5
Wawrinka d. Raonic in 4
Murray d. Gasquet in 4
Djokovic should roll, I favor Thiem over Goffin because of his upside potential on clay. Wawrinka should outmuscle Raonic on clay, and Murray has a good record against Gasquet. In a defensive battle, the Brit should prevail if he keeps playing better.
Semis Djokovic d. Thiem in 3
Wawrinka d. Murray in 5
Djokovic will be favored to reach the final, Wawrinka has played himself into the tournament enough where I think he’ll defeat Murray. Murray has been so poor thus far, and I think he’ll come up short of a clay final.
This is Djokovic’s time, he lost to Wawrinka at this stage last year, but he’s a far better player than anyone else left in the the tournament now, and with Nadal out, he avoided a physical semifinal match. Djokovic should prevail.
2016 French Open Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Summer tennis begins in earnest with the 2016 French Open kicking off Sunday. Two weeks of action from the red clay of Roland Garros are sure to yield thrills, spills, and more than a few upsets, as the best clay courters in men’s tennis will vie for supremacy in Paris. Here is a preview, and predictions.
Roland Garros
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 22-June 5, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €16,008,750
Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Kei Nishikori (6)
6: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
7: Tomas Berdych (8)
8: Milos Raonic (9)
World #3 and former French Open champion Roger Federer will be missing his first Grand Slam main draw since 1999, as a back injury will snap his 16 year consecutive Grand Slam streak. That means his rival and clay legend Rafael Nadal gets his own quarter of the draw. French favorite Gael Monfils is also absent, as is another talented shotmaker, Alex Dolgopolov, but the rest of the top players are ready to go, many of them looking to benefit in Federer’s absence.
First round matchups to watch:
(31)Federico Delbonis vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Delbonis beat PCB in Marrakech this year and he’s 4-0 in the h2h, but PCB is one of the tougher unseeded players in the draw, and this match will be a classic clay court battle, featuring long defensive rallies. PCB comes off the quarters in Geneva and he was also a finalist in Estoril. Delbonis also reached the quarters in Geneva, and prior to that he reached the semis in Istanbul and Bucharest, plus won Marrakech to help secure an RG seeding. The Argentine should beat the Spaniard in this one, but I’d expect more than 3 sets.
(20)Bernard Tomic vs. Brian Baker
The veteran Baker is a testament to hard work, tenacity, and overcoming all odds to maximize talent, no matter the circumstances. Tomic is the opposite of that, and the #20 seed is in danger of dropping his sixth straight match to likely finish the clay season without a win in 2016, and fuel swirling questions about his future in tennis. After tanking his way through the clay season, Tomic is actually facing one of the easier round 1 opponents as Baker has barely played ATP level tennis this year, regardless, the American is solid enough on clay and should give Tomic enough of a challenge that he may fold in short order.
Borna Coric vs. Taylor Fritz
Coric has struggled to be consistent on ATP clay this year, but he does have a final and a quarterfinal on the surface this spring. The young Croatian has a bright future ahead, but he’s certainly experiencing ATP World Tour growing pains right now. Fritz isn’t as sharp on clay as his fellow young gun (though he was the French Open junior finalist last year), but he did win a match in Nice after dropping two matches to Radek Stepanek in Madrid and Rome. This young American is also likely to reach at least the top 20 in due time, but now, and in the future, Coric should win this matchup on clay.
Another ATP next gen battle like the matchup above, the 19 year old Halys has less ATP experience than the 20 year old Korean Chung, but the Frenchman is going to have the crowd behind him, and most likely play better on clay, particularly in Paris. After Chung’s poor clay season, Halys should hand him a fourth straight loss.
(32)Fabio Fognini vs. Marcel Granollers
Granollers reached a pair of clay quarterfinals in the run up to the French Open, as the Spanish veteran isn’t quite done with singles yet. Fognini is on a poor three match losing streak, after reaching the semifinals in Munich and the quarterfinals in Barcelona earlier this spring. The ATP clay h2h is even between these veterans, Fognini should be better these days, but you never know with his erratic mentality, and Granollers could grab a win over a seed in Paris.
(24)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Nicolas Almagro
Almagro is 4-1 on ATP level clay against Kohlschreiber, and won the last two h2h meetings. The Estoril champion has been poor otherwise on tour in recent weeks, but he’s demonstrated the ability to find form and make sudden runs, as he also reached a clay final in Buenos Aires. It’ll be feast or famine for Almagro, while the fellow one-handed backhand veteran Kohlschreiber won Munich and reached the semis in Barcelona, demonstrating his own ability to find form. I have Kohlschreiber as a slight favorite, but this match has five sets written all over it, and Almagro’s fitness and mentality may let him down.
Diego Schwartzman vs. Guido Pella
Schwartzman should be the more in form player here, but he’s never beaten Pella, and this will be a tough all-Argentine war on clay. DS comes off the round of 16 in Nice, and he won Istanbul for his maiden title. Pella reached the quarters in both Bucharest and Nice, but he hasn’t had quite as good of a clay court spring (he also reached the final in Rio). Both players are on their best surface, and this match could go five sets, I have Schwartzman narrowly advancing with his undersized game.
Dimitrov had the upperhand against Troicki until he lost in a third set tiebreak final against the Serbian in Sydney earlier this year. That set the stage for Dimitrov going on to be unseeded in Paris, and struggle mentally to finish big matches and get important wins. The Bulgarian has lost three straight matches since blowing the Istanbul final, while Troicki has been mediocre on clay this year with a lack of notable results. Dimitrov *should* win this match, perhaps in straights, but his problem is his mentality, not his talent.
Sam Querrey vs. Bjorn Fratangelo
Querrey won four matches this spring on clay, a decent showing for him, while Fratangelo comes off a clay challenger final in France, and also a clay challenger title and a semifinal. The 22 year old American has been the darling of stateside clay challengers, while Querrey is the experienced and steady veteran with a low upside at this point. I have Fratangelo winning this if he’s fresh enough and perhaps leaving a mark in Paris.
Djokovic’s quarter:
The world #1 Novak Djokovic has a great chance to win his illusive first French Open title. Djokovic has been far and above the elite player on tour this year, but RG is his worst slam, and he’s more vulnerable on clay than other surfaces, as losses to Andy Murray in Rome, and Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo this year demonstrate. Djokovic didn’t appear healthy in Rome, but he still reached the final, and he’s at least made the semifinals in recent French Opens.
To open his quest, Djokovic should roll past Yen-Hsun Lu, who is happy to collect a check on clay, and then dispatch either Marsel Ilhan or Steve Darcis, both of whom are qualifiers. Delbonis is slated to be his third round opponent, and neither the Argentine, nor PCB, or Gerald Melzer/Aljaz Bedene have anywhere near the level, or the game to threaten Djokovic. Barring injury, he should be safe to reach week 2. I have Delbonis over PCB, then over Bedene before falling to Djokovic in round 3.
The section below Djokovic featuring Roberto Bautista Agut as the highest seed is quite open. The Coric/Fritz winner has a great chance at third round money and points, as neither Tomic or Baker is an intimidating round 2 opponent. I have Coric into round 3, opposite Bautista Agut. The Spaniard hasn’t done much on clay this year, but his round 1 opponent Dmitry Tursunov has been poor and the Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu is 34 and unpredictable. He’ll open with fellow veteran Santiago Giraldo, who is no longer an ATP caliber player it seems. RBA over PHM, and then suffering an upset loss to Coric is my pick. RBA has underperformed recently, and I feel the young Coric will sense his time to rise. Coric has beaten RBA this year, but is 0-2 on clay in his career against him.
David Ferrer has been below his usual caliber this spring on clay, and suffered another bad loss when he fell in the Geneva semifinals. Still, the Spaniard should roll past Evgeny Donskoy, to setup a match with Rome quarterfinalist Juan Monaco. Monaco, an Argentine veteran, is capable of playing great on clay but he’s been fighting injuries, and he could fall to Denis Istomin round 1. I have Ferrer finding a way to vanquish Monaco, and the serve and volleyer Feliciano Lopez, to make the 4th round, more due to the ease of his draw, than his own form. Lopez has been in poor form, but lucky loser Thomas Fabbiano, and Victor Estrella/Illya Marchenko are some of the easiest opponents you can face early in a slam draw as of now. This section is quite unimpressive.
Tomas Berdych will open his French Open against Canadian Vasek Pospisil, who is poor on clay, with Malek Jaziri/Florian Mayer to follow. That’s not a difficult start, and Berdych should ease into round 3, for a big meeting with Pablo Cuevas, presuming Cuevas handles qualifier Tobias Kamke, and the Chung/Halys winner. Berdych has not had a great clay season, and I have Cuevas notching an upset. He’s a purer dirtballer, and though he hasn’t been on fire this spring, he’s still solid and crafty, enough to beat a power hitter like Berdych, who hasn’t found his range on clay this year.
The nine-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal is one of only two players in this draw to have won a French Open. Rafa, who won Monte Carlo and Barcelona earlier this spring, before losing to Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic in Madrid and Rome, will open with the big serving Sam Groth. After that routine match, he should demolish either Facundo Bagnis or qualifier Kenny De Schepper, with Granollers/Fognini or Nicolas Mahut/Ricardas Berankis to follow. Mahut is poor on clay but he’s at home, I have him beating Berankis, but losing to Fognini, and then Nadal ousting Fognini in round 3. Fognini famously beat Rafa in a slam (US Open 2015), but on clay it shouldn’t be close, given Nadal easily dispatched Fognini in Barcelona not that long ago.
Dominic Thiem looks set to dominate the section below Nadal, the young Austrian was a finalist in Munich, won Nice this week, he also reached the quarters in Rome, and the third round in Monte Carlo this spring. Inigo Cervantes is unlikely to put up a fight in round 1, with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez a dangerous, but underdog opponent in round 2, and Alexander Zverev his likely rival in round 3. GGL opens with Thiemo De Bakker after reaching the quarters in Geneva, he has three clay quarterfinals and a semifinal in the lead up to the French Open, so if Thiem is fatigued, he could pounce. Zverev lost to Thiem in the Nice final, after losing to him in Munich, both matches on clay. The young German could be fatigued as well, but he’s had a strong young gun showing this year and he’ll need a big win over young Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who excels in doubles, followed by a win over Kevin Anderson, the #18 seed who has two wins on clay this year, or Stephane Robert. Given Thiem has been a cut above Zverev thus far, I see him winning that match again to reach round 4, but Zverev will still be a nice unseeded surprise in round 3.
David Goffin, and the Kohlschreiber/Almagro winner are on a collision course for round 3. The Belgian #1. who reached the quarters in Rome, should dispatch young wild card Gregoire Barrere, and then ease past Carlos Berlocq or Paolo Lorenzi to reach round 3. The Kohlschreiber/Almagro winner is likely to face Jiri Vesely, after Vesely beats Rajeev Ram. Vesely has an ATP quarterfinal and a semifinal on clay this spring, and shocked Novak Djokovic for the win of his career. He’s a talent, but he lacks consistency, thus I have Goffin over Kohlschreiber in round 3. Goffin leads Kohli 2-1 in the h2h, and he’s been the better player this season, particularly in big events.
Presuming French #1 and Monte Carlo semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can fend off the challenge of in-form qualifier J.L. Struff, he should be able to defeat Gilles Muller/Marcos Baghdatis, and setup a winnable third round contest with either Joao Sousa, or Andreas Seppi. Tsonga will have home support, though he often struggles under the pressure. Baghdatis should beat Muller on clay, but he’s poor on the surface, while Sousa, a quarterfinalist in Madrid, and semifinalist in Nice, is the favorite against Damir Dzumhur, an Istanbul quarterfinalist, and also the Nice quarterfinalist Seppi, who opens with Ernests Gulbis, an opponent who he has struggled with in past h2h matches, but is far below his previous level these days. Sousa has a h2h win over Seppi, and has been in better match form. Tsonga should be the better player on clay in their third round meeting, he’s the strongest player in this section.
The defending champion Stan Wawrinka has had an awful clay court season, and was slumping for a while, but he may have just found the form he needs to compete at the highest level, as he won the Geneva final on home clay, and just beat his round 1 opponent Lukas Rosol in the semifinals there. If Martin Klizan, who had a good early part of the season before being injured, isn’t too rusty, he could give Wawrinka a stiff challenge, first the Slovak will need to defeat Taro Daniel though, who isn’t likely to have enough game against Wawrinka on clay. With Klizan’s form questionable, I have Wawrinka getting through the first two rounds, though it may not be as smooth as many think. The Swiss veteran is alone in the national spotlight with Federer absent now, and while he’s capable of playing incredible tennis, his poor play this season has hardly inspired confidence. His round 3 opponent will also result in him being a heavy favorite, as Jeremy Chardy/Leonardo Mayer are most likely, and neither have had a great spring. The winner of that match will face Adam Pavlasek or Roberto Carballes Baena, both of whom came through qualifying, but are not top tier talents. Wawrinka over Chardy is my pick for round 3, as like Ferrer, Wawrinka will benefit from a weak draw more than anything else to reach the second week.
The Troicki/Dimitrov winner should be opposite Frenchman Gilles Simon, unless the Schwartzman/Pella winner serves as a dark horse. I have Dimitrov over Troicki, and Dusan Lajovic (who beats Denis Kudla R1), and Simon ousting recent challenger winner Rogerio Dutra Silva to setup a round 2 match with Schwartzman. Their first h2h meeting will have some upset potential given Simon hasn’t done much on clay this year. In a slam I still have to favor the veteran Frenchman to reach the third round, but I have him falling to Dimitrov, who should reverse the h2h loss on clay this year to Simon if he can pull his game together. This is a tough section to predict.
American Jack Sock gets a nice draw. The Houston finalist could be the last American standing after defeating a struggling Robin Haase, and either qualifier Dustin Brown or veteran Dudi Sela in round 2. Geneva finalist Marin Cilic should defeat Marco Trungelliti, a qualifier, and then Istanbul quarterfinalist Albert Ramos, after Ramos beats fellow dirtballer Horacio Zeballos. Cilic isn’t the most consistent higher seed in the draw, and Sock will certainly have a shot at the fourth round, but on clay I give Cilic a slight edge. It should be an intriguing matchup.
Milos Raonic has few obstacles in his quest to reach the second week. The Canadian could have a big French Open, and he’ll start with Janko Tipsarevic, who is still easing back from a series of injuries, followed by Adrian Mannarino or Mikhail Kukushkin, and most likely Lucas Pouille in round 3. Raonic reached the quarters in both Monte Carlo and Madrid on clay. Mannarino found shocking form on clay and reached the semis in Nice, while Kukushkin is poor himself. The big serving Canadian should work his way out of any early round danger, as the young Pouille likely won’t be able to stay level against Raonic’s steady serving. Pouille was a finalist in Bucharest, and a semifinalist in Rome, he’s a solid young talent who should ease past Julien Benneteau, and most likely Andrej Martin, as Daniel Munoz De La Nava is slumping. The French fans will certainly try to will him into the round of 16 though.
Murray’s quarter:
Andy Murray has the weakest section of the draw, and the Rome champion and Madrid finalist shouldn’t worry much about Radek Stepanek, who he beat in Madrid, and had to come through qualifying. Mathias Bourgue and Jordi Samper-Montana are both below ATP level players right now, and Ivo Karlovic, who is awful on clay, is the only other seed in Murray’s section. Murray has a clear path, as I have him facing veteran Spaniard Albert Montanes, a semifinalist in Marrakech, in round 3. Montanes should “upset” Karlovic on clay, and also beat either Laslo Djere or Jordan Thompson, both of whom lack much ATP experience. Murray will outrun, and out work Montanes in round 3.
American #1 John Isner should reach the third round, and end up opposite the erratic French favorite Benoit Paire. Isner hasn’t enjoyed clay this year, but his opening round opponent John Millman doesn’t like clay either, and I don’t see Kyle Edmund or qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili as quite ready to step up and earn an ATP top 20 win on clay yet. Both recently won challenger titles, and don’t sleep on Edmund making the third round, but Isner’s consistency works in his favor. Paire has been struggling, but he has two semifinals on clay this spring, and neither qualifier Radu Albot, nor Teymuraz Gabashvili/Donald Young are opponents likely to defeat him. Young should win over Gabashvili given the Russian’s terrible form. I have Paire over Isner because I sense the Frenchman will do well at home, and I don’t trust Isner on clay right now.
Richard Gasquet and Nick Kyrgios always seem to run into each other, as the veteran Frenchman can’t escape his young Australian rival. Gasquet, the French #2, should ease past Thomaz Bellucci, who has been disappointing recently, and also the Querrey/Fratangelo winner, to setup the third round match with Kyrgios. NK has to defeat Marco Cecchinato, and either Adrian Ungur or Igor Sijsling, as his first three opponents are more at home on the challenger tour. Kyrgios has a semifinal and a quarterfinal on clay this spring, and he’s been a top performer at the Grand Slam level, with Gasquet playing at no better than average this clay season, I have Kyrgios winning that match and advancing into round 4. Kyrgios also has a h2h win this year against Gasquet.
Kei Nishikori vs. Andrey Kuznetsov figures to be one of the better round 2 matchups in the draw, Nisihkori has a struggling, and injured Simone Bolelli as his first opponent, while Kuznetsov opens with Benjamin Becker, a veteran who is allergic to clay. Kuznetsov has a pair of clay quarterfinals this spring and he’s a rising talent, but Nishikori has established himself as a player likely to go deep in this draw, given his semifinal showing in both Madrid and Rome, and his finalist result in Barcelona. Munich quarterfinalist Ivan Dodig should dispatch a struggling Mikhail Youzhny, and setup a meeting with Bucharest champion Fernando Verdasco. The veteran Spaniard opens with American Steve Johnson, who is poor on clay, and he should win that match, and defeat Dodig, before falling to Nishikori in round 3.
Coric is my pick to reach the second week opposite Djokovic, Fritz is an interesting opponent, and Bautista Agut can be a consistent performer who plays tough tennis on clay, but he doesn’t have the upside of the young unseeded Croatian. Zverev has to beat Herbert, and a seeded Anderson to reach round 3, and then he’ll need to reverse his result against Thiem and win. That’s a tough ask, but he could still reach the second week.
Schwartzman may lose round 1 to Pella, and Simon is one of the tougher veterans to play in Paris, but if the Argentine gets out of the first two rounds, he’ll likely run into Dimitrov again, an opponent he defeated in the Istanbul final. We could see this Argentine in the second week. Kuznetsov has the toughest early round opponent, as Nishikori looms in round 2, but if Kei plays poorly and shows up in dreadful form, we could see the Russian make a run into the second week. All of these players are relatively young, unseeded, and have strong upside potential.
Predictions
Round of 16: Djokovic d. Coric in 3
Cuevas d. Ferrer in 4
Nadal d. Thiem in 4
Goffin d. Tsonga in 5
Raonic d. Cilic in 4
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov in 5
Nishikori d. Kyrgios in 4
Murray d. Paire in 3
Djokovic and Murray beat Coric and Paire respectively in Madrid and Monte Carlo, the top 2 players should ease into the quarterfinals. Nadal is 2-1 against Thiem, and won their most recent match in Monte Carlo, that match has upset potential, but over a best of 5, Nadal has a clear edge.
Goffin and Tsonga have split clay meetings, that match could go five sets, but with Tsonga normally playing worse at home, I have Goffin advancing. Ferrer is 3-0 against Cuevas but dropped a set against him in their match this year, I have an upset in that match because I don’t trust Ferrer to play well at all this week, and Cuevas is due for a surprising run.
Raonic likely outlasts Cilic in a close battle of big hitters. Wawrinka is better than Dimitrov, despite Grigor holding a 2-1 h2h edge on clay against the Swiss. Nishikori is 3-0 against Kyrgios and has two wins this season against him, on clay he should prevail.
Quarters: Djokovic d. Cuevas in 3
Nadal d. Goffin in 3
Wawrinka d. Raonic in 5
Murray d. Nishikori in 4
Murray is 6-1 against Nishikori, they play a similar style, and Murray seems to do it better, even on clay. Wawrinka vs. Raonic is tough to predict, Raonic won for the first time at this year’s AO after going 0-4 against Wawrinka. On clay, the advantage likely shifts to Wawrinka, as this is not Raonic’s best surface. However, Stan is shaky right now.
Nadal and Djokovic should be unbothered as they march towards a semifinal against each other.
Semis: Djokovic d. Nadal in 4
Murray d. Wawrinka in 4
Djokovic hasn’t lost to Nadal in the last two seasons (7-0), the world #1 beat Nadal in Paris last year, and has a win this year on clay in Rome. It will be a close and competitive match, but Djokovic has simply outpaced Nadal at this point in their careers, and I’m not sure Nadal is going to be able to get back to his prior level, even on clay. Djokovic’s superior consistency and conditioning should win out.
Wawrinka won his last three meetings against Murray, after Murray had a prior h2h edge. With that said, Murray has been in far superior form this year, and even on clay he’s established himself as an elite player. With Murray playing some of his best clay tennis, he should win the semifinal match.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray in 4
It was important for Murray’s confidence to win in Rome against Djokovic, but the world #1 was not playing at 100%, and presuming he’s healthy and fit, it’s hard to see how Murray will defeat him in a slam final, especially on clay. Djokovic won their previous two meetings this year, including the Madrid final, and he’ll be the favorite if he reaches the final. Last year in the semis Djokovic beat Murray in five sets, and it should be a competitive, and high caliber final. I tip the Serbian to win his first ever French Open title, this seems to be the year for him.
2015 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Week 1 at the 2015 French Open at Roland Garros stayed relatively true to form, while some surprises and upsets took place, all of the top tier contenders are still alive going into the second week, and this second week should prove to be more exciting and pivotal than the first week was. Their was a notable absence of five setters and dramatic tennis on the men’s side, but regardless, here is a retrospective of the week that was, and a lookahead to the round of 16 and onwards.
2015 French Open Week 2 Preview
Men’s round of 16 matchups
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (20)Richard Gasquet
Novak Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set in three matches, coming close only once, and he’s looking dominant as usual coming in to the second week of play. Novak dominated Gilles Muller and Thanasi Kokkinakis, never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set, and prior to that he got past Jarkko Nieminen, as Nieminen was only able to raise his level for 1 set, a set he eventually lost. For Kokkinakis it was good to reach the third round on clay, but the young gun posed no threat to the world #1.
Gasquet has always struggled against Djokovic, and he had to fight to reach the second week. After dominating Germain Gigounon, a qualifier, he slayed Carlos Berlocq in 5 sets, and Kevin Anderson in 4 sets. Against Berlocq he struggled and dropped the 4th set, but the match was postponed for darkness, and the next day he found renewed form to win it.
Gasquet is fun to watch, and he’ll excite the crowds, but at best taking a set off of Novak would be quite the feat, and Djokovic in 3 sets is a reasonable pick.
(6)Rafael Nadal vs. Jack Sock
Nadal has looked as sharp as Djokovic in the first week, not dropping a set against three opponents, and never surrendering more than 4 games in a single set. He beat Quentin Halys, Nicolas Almagro, and Andrey Kuznetsov in routs, and appears to be rising up and rounding in to form on his favorite red clay in Paris.
Sock is the first American man to reach the second week of the French Open in quite some time, as the young gun American is a threat on red clay with his powerful, high RPM forehand that mimics Nadal to some extent. He uses it to clobber opponents and leave then struggling to beat him. He scored two upset wins this week, the first round was a three set win over a listless Grigor Dimitrov, who appears to be lacking belief these days, and the third round was total domination over teenager Borna Coric, who had scored two hard fought wins to reach the third round over Sam Querrey, and Tommy Robredo. In between those matches, Sock dropped his only set of the first week against dirtballer Pablo Carreno Busta.
Sock is to some extent a poor man’s Nadal, and on clay Nadal has better defense, more experience, and the ability to match Sock shot for shot on the forehand side, thus this matchup isn’t great for him, and I have Rafa advancing in 3 sets. Nadal in 3 sets
(3)Andy Murray vs. Jeremy Chardy
Andy Murray has looked to be playing well in his first three matches, and he has a relatively easy fourth round encounter lined up against the inspired Frenchman Chardy who he is 6-1 against in his career, including a win this year on clay in Rome when Murray was fatigued.
The UK #1 dispatched a pair of young guns, Facundo Arguello, and Nick Kyrgios, the fan favorite Aussie, without dropping a set in rounds 1 and 3, as Murray remains a bad matchup or Kyrgios. In between, Joao Sousa challenge him for two sets, but Murray won in 4, as he fought through the Portugese’s stiff challenge.
Chardy did not enter the French Open in good form, but the home soil and French fans have really helped push him to another career performance in a slam, as reaching the second week is a great feat for him. He upset both John Isner and David Goffin to get this far, beating Goffin in straights in round 3, and Isner in 4 sets in round 2. Prior to that he beat Michael Berrer in 4 sets.
Chardy has had a nice run, but I don’t see Murray dropping a set against him as the Scot should simply move too well to be bothered by the Chardy bread and butter, Murray in 3 sets is the pick.
(7)David Ferrer vs. (9)Marin Cilic
A match that could turn out to be quite competitive, Ferrer leads the h2h over Cilic 3-2, and they haven’t met since 2011.
Ferrer was dominant in his first two matches notching routine wins over Lukas Lacko and Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but he got sloppy against Simone Bolelli, who was punching through him at times and won two sets, eventually losing in 5 as he ran out of gas late.
Cilic appears to be rapidly picking up steam with his form and momentum, he beat Robin Haase, Andrea Arnaboldi, and Leonardo Mayer without dropping a set. Dominating Mayer, who was supposed to challenge him, as the Argentine was in good form going into that match.
It’s a hard pick for me to make, but I’m going to stick with Ferrer and his steady play to win the day, as Ferrer in 5 sets is my pick. This should be a great match, style wise alone.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs Teymuraz Gabashvili
No one is surprised to see Kei Nishikori here, but Gabashvili reaching the second week of a slam is quite the story. The Georgian/Russian has always had the talent but he’s underachieved a bit. This year his baseline power game has been on point, but the Japanese #1 will be his toughest challenge yet, and the road likely ends here for him.
Nishikori only had to play two matches to reach the second week, as he got a walkover in the third round against Benjamin Becker (who upset Fernando Verdasco earlier in the week). He drilled his backhand for wins against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Thomaz Bellucci without dropping a set in the first two rounds.
Gabashvili, who has beaten Nishikori once, compared to three losses including one this year on clay in Barcelona, beat higher ranked opponents Feliciano Lopez, Juan Monaco, and Lukas Rosol without dropping a set. He’s the most surprising name left on the men’s side, and he’s had a tough draw but dealt with it magnificently.
Credit to Gabashvili for getting this far, but I have a rested Nishikori in 3 sets.
(4)Tomas Berdych vs. (14)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Berdych just defeated Tsonga on clay in Madrid, and overall leads the h2h history, but with the French crowd rallying for Tsonga, who seems to play inspired tennis at Roland Garros, many people are looking for a different result this time, and an upset win for Tsonga.
I continue to feel Berdych isn’t getting enough credit for his results, and he continued the streak of not losing to a non top 5 player in quite some time with wins over Yoshihito Nishioka in 3 sets, and Radek Stepanek and Benoit Paire in four sets. Both Stepanek and Paire are rather odd matchups to face, but once Berdych got settled in, he put his hands firmly around the match and take control.
Tsonga has defeated Christian Lindell, Dudi Sela, and Pablo Andujar without dropping a set, though only Andujar can be considered an even halfway challenging opponent, so it’s still hard to tell where his form is right now, besides the fact he hasn’t slipped up when he shouldn’t.
Tsonga should give Tomas a great match, and he loves Paris, bit Berdych is too strong right now to lose this, and Berdych in 4 sets is my pick.
(8)Stan Wawrinka vs. (12)Gilles Simon
This match should be a slow grinding love affair with the red clay, and the Parisian crowd will increase Simon’s chances to win this one over Stan the man. Wawrinka has a minor 3-2 h2h edge but overall these two players are relatively even, as Simon manages to neutralize the Wawrinka backhand attack.
Wawrinka beat Marsel Ilhan, Dusan Lajovic, and American Steve Johnson, dropping just 1 set against Lajovic to reach the second week, as he has avoided a stumble, and even signs of trouble this time.
Simon clawed back to win in 4 against Lucas Pouille, and then upset Martin Klizan in straights before needing five sets against veteran Nicolas Mahut. Simon’s grinding could well win this, but I’m going with Wawrinka in 5 sets. He should be fresher for this one, and hasn’t had to face as difficult of opposition early on.
(2)Roger Federer vs. (13)Gael Monfils
The potential is there for either of these players to reach the final out of the bottom half, and this is a highly anticipated fourth round encounter coming up on Sunday. Monfils has won the last two meetings, both on clay against Federer without dropping a set, including this year in Monte Carlo, and thus it’s clear at a venue he loves, Roland Garros, where he feeds off the energy of the crowd to inspire his highlight worthy tennis, he’ll have a great chance to defeat a legend, and look to carve more Roland Garros history out himself as the home favorite player.
Monfils has had to scratch and claw in his all of his matches this week, as he’s the only player in the round of 16 who has played multiple five setters. He started the tournament winning in a surprise four over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, and then both Diego Schwartzman and Pablo Cuevas pushed the envelope and gave Gael all he could handle, but twice he would fight back. Against Schwartzman he was 2 sets to 1 down and then won the last two sets by a combined score of 12-4, against Cuevas he was down 2 sets to 1 and a break, only to roll off a number of games in the fourth set, and pump himself into a five set win over a choking Cuevas.
Federer should be much fresher, but he’s also older, he beat Alejandro Falla, Marcel Granollers and Damir Dzumhur without incident, not even dropping a set.
Monfils speed and variety can frustrate and both Federer, especially on clay, but Federer has actually had the edge here, and Monfils has looked shaky at times with his focus and consistency in week 1, thus Federer in 4 sets is my pick.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament:
Quarters: Djokovic d. Nadal in 4 Murray d. Ferrer in 4 Berdych d. Nishikori in 4 Federer d. Wawrinka in 3
Sticking with my original picks here basically, Djokovic, Murray, Berdych and Federer have given me no reason not to trust them to reach the semis, and they should be the favorites, not just as top 4 seeds, but also based on their current level of play. Nadal is unlikely to be able to maintain against Djokovic, Ferrer seems less talented than Murray right now, I give Berdych the edge on Kei, and Wawrinka tends to struggle against Federer, Simon could perhaps be more of a challenge.
Semis: Djokovic d. Murray in 4
Federer d. Berdych in 4
Sticking to my guns here as well, Berdych and Murray can both challenge their higher ranked opponents for at least a set, but over a period of five sets, I’d give the #1 and #2 decisive advantages.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer in 4
Djokovic should be better these days than Federer on clay, and if he loses the French Open this year, we’d have to consider it a choke in most imaginable circumstances.
