2016 Santo Domingo and Bergamo Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Milex Open At La Bocha 2016
ATP Challenger Tour
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
8-14 February 2016
Green Clay, Har-Tru
Prize Money: $75,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Victor Estrella Burgos (58)
2: Horacio Zeballos (118)
3: Gerald Melzer (120)
4: Roberto Carballes Baena (129)
5: Andrej Martin (141)
6: Alejandro Gonzalez (151)
7: Andre Ghem (153)
8: Joao Souza (154)
The last direct acceptance is Maxime Chazal, ranked 264th.
First round match-up to watch
(1) Victor Estrella Burgos – Gonzalo Lama
Estrella Burgos did the unthinkable in Quito last week, defending the title he amazed the tennis world with exactly one year ago. With a lot on the line, an early loss would have meant an exit from the top 100, he secured another year of ATP main draw tennis for himself. He will undoubtedly turn up to this event as it’s in his home country, but if he will actually play is uncertain and probably even unlikely after last week’s heroic effort.
Third seed Gerald Melzer has been in excellent form lately, reaching a career high ranking of #120 after winning the Bucaramanga Challenger two weeks ago. Especially with Estrella Burgos likely being out of the picture, he should bet he clear favorite to reach the final from this half. Outsiders might be fifth seed Andrej Martin and qualifier Pere Riba, the former world #65.
Bottom Half
Second seed Horacio Zeballos has already left the tournament after a first round beatdown from Alessandro Giannessi, 6-1 6-3. It’s likely to see this half being decided in a quarterfinal showdown between Joao Souza and Roberto Carballes Baena, with the latter being the slight favorite. Carballes Baena is creeping closer to the top 100, reaching the second round at Quito last week, where he fell in three sets to top seed and world #20 Bernard Tomic.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Melzer d. Martin
Carballes Baena d. Giannessi
Final:
Melzer d. Carballes Baena
Trofeo Perrel – FAIP
ATP Challenger Tour
Bergamo, Italy
8-14 February 2016
Hardcourt
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Yuki Bhambri (100)
2: Ruben Bemelmans (107)
3: Nikoloz Basilashvili (116)
4: Mirza Basic (119)
5: Michael Berrer (121)
6: Go Soeda (127)
7: Dustin Brown (133)
8: Konstantin Kravchuk (135)
The last direct acceptance is Tristan Lamasine, ranked 195th.
First round match-up to watch
(5) Michael Berrer – (WC) Radek Stepanek
Stepanek
This should be a highly entertaining match-up between two veterans. 35-year-old Berrer comes off an excellent showing at Montpellier, where he beat Borna Coric and Kenny De Schepper before barely falling to Alexander Zverev, 7-6(2) 2-6 5-7. 37-year-old Stepanek reached the second round at the Australian Open in singles, but topped that in doubles, losing a very close final with fellow veteran Daniel Nestor to Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares, 6-2 4-6 5-7. Stepanek and Berrer played each other once, in the second round of the 2009 Australian Open, with Stepanek winning 6-3 6-2 6-7(3) 7-5.
Top Half
It’s not inconceivable that the winner of Stepanek – Berrer will determine the winner of this half. On the very quick Bergamo surface, they have the tools to succeed. However, there will be sufficient competition from someone like Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who also has the tools to succeed on indoor hardcourts and has a managable draw.
Bottom Half
Seventh seed Dustin Brown is back to the Challenger grind after his heroic run at Montpellier last week. After beating Steve Darcis, Gilles Simon and Ruben Bemelmans for a place in the semi-final, he nearly beat world #10 Richard Gasquet, but fell after being up a set and a break and playing absolutely spectacular tennis, 6-1 4-6 3-6. As we know it’s anyone’s guess if he will repeat that form here, so it’s hard to put a prediction on it. He has a favorable draw, however, so he is definitely a favorite to at least reach the semi-final, where he might meet his quarterfinal opponent of last week, Ruben Bemelmans.
2015 Launceston, Santo Domingo and Bergamo Challenger Recaps Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Launceston
#5 seed Hyeon Chung was in the running to win back to back Challengers after winning Burnie last week. Chung’s draw opened up tremendously when he was the last seed standing in the bottom half after the second round, with #2 Somdev Devvarman and #4 Hiroki Moriya both losing in the first round, while #6 Luke Saville made it one round further before falling 6-4 6-4 to Jordan Thompson. Despite his good form and cushy draw, Chung struggled tremendously in his first three matches, needing three sets to advance in all of them. There he faced Thompson, a match which he won as well and also, you guessed it, in three sets: 5-7 6-3 7-5.
In the top half a great candidate to reach the final, #3 seed Kyle Edmund, sadly had to retire from his first match with a lower back injury. It seemed to be contagious, as top seed Yuichi Sugita gave a walk-over in the second round citing that reason, as well as Zhe Zhang, who had to retire from his semi-final match with it. Bjorn Fratangelo, who also benefited from Sugita’s withdrawal, advanced to the final after that retirement, facing Chung. Another three set match ensued, but surprisingly enough it was Fratangelo who took down his first Challenger title, prevailing 4-6 6-2 7-5. Naturally, it also meant a new career high ranking for the American, improving fifty-three ranking spots and landing at #172. Chung is starting to get close to direct qualification for Roland Garros, rising nine spots to #120.
Santo Domingo
Unfortunately this tournament was not streamed, so this will be scoreboard journalism in its purest form. Victor Estrella Burgos was the top seed here in his home country, but I didn’t expect him to get far after his magic run at Quito, where he took down an ATP title. Understandably he didn’t even start and withdrew before the tournament began, leaving his place in the draw to lucky loser Patricio Hernandez, who profited by winning his first round match against Jose Hernandez before falling in the second round to Nicolas Jarry. Jarry in his turn lost 6-4 6-4 to #5 seed Damir Dzumhur, who ended up not dropping a set on his way to the final. #3 seed Horacio Zeballos fell in dramatic fashion to youngster Christian Garin, who beat him 1-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5) after saving three match points.
In the bottom half Renzo Olivo played not one, but four matches like that on his way to the final. 1-6 7-5 6-3, 3-6 7-5 7-6(4), 4-6 7-6(3) 7-5 and 6-7(6) 7-5 6-1 were the titanic scores, in which he saved a total of five match points after going down a set in each of the matches. Unfortunately this took a big toll on his body, as he was forced to retire in the final against Dzumhur with stomach problems, as the latter was leading 7-5 3-1. The result makes Dzumhur get close to the top 100 and his career high ranking of #101, rising eighteen spots to #105. Olivo also nears his career high ranking, #179, rising forty-one spots to #187.
Benoit Paire started off the tournament in vintage headcase fashion, entertaining us with a great racquet smash and shirt rip after dropping the opening set against Ilija Bozoljac in the second round. He managed to turn the match around, however, after which he started playing a lot better in his next two matches, beating #3 seed Farrukh Dustov 6-4 6-4 and Jurgen Zopp with the same score to book a place in the final. Zopp had taken out #2 seed Lucas Pouille a round before, 7-5 7-6(2).
In the top half top seed Andreas Beck got upset by Konstantin Kravchuk in the first round, 6-3 7-6(5). Qualifier and former world #51 Daniel Brands took advantage, beating Kravchuk in two tiebreaks to secure a quarterfinal spot. There #5 seed Iliya Marchenko was too strong, beating him 7-6(6) 6-3. In the other quarterfinal Aleksandr Nedovyesov beat Tim Puetz 4-6 6-1 6-2, after which he took out Marchenko as well after a marathon match, 6-4 3-6 7-6(3). However, in the final Paire showed why he used to be the world #24 and clearly was the better player during his 6-3 7-6(3) victory. Let’s hope Paire can put his knee problems behind him and return to a spot in that neighborhood. He made a good start in the rankings, rising twenty-two positions to #121. Nedovyesov rose a modest three spots to #116.
2015 Santo Domingo, Launceston and Bergamo Challenger Previews & Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
There are three Challengers on the schedule for this week, on hardcourt in Australia in Italy and on clay in the Dominican Republic.
Milex Tennis Open 2015 at La Bocha
ATP Challenger Tour
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Victor Estrella Burgos
2: Albert Montanes
3: Horacio Zeballos
4: Gastao Elias
5: Damir Dzumhur
6: Evgeny Donskoy
7: Jason Kubler
8: Gerald Melzer
The last direct acceptance is Renzo Olivo, ranked 273rd.
First round match-ups to watch
(1) Victor Estrella Burgos – Jose Hernandez
Well, I don’t think I need to elaborate too much on what happened this weekend. For me it’s undoubtedly one of the greatest things that ever happened in tennis. Estrella Burgos became the oldest first time ATP titlist in Quito, beating top seed Feliciano Lopez in a third set tiebreak. Normally he obviously would have withdrawn from a Challenger in the next week, but this one is played in his home country. However, surely his run of last week has taken a massive toll on him, mentally and physically, so I don’t expect him to go past the quarterfinal here.
Thirty-two year old Balleret has been tearing it apart on the Futures circuit this year, reaching three clay finals in a row and winning two of them. Needless to say he has sufficient rhythm on clay, in contrast to Dzumhur, who played on indoor hardcourt in Zagreb last week, where he reached the second round. Balleret could push a rusty Dzumhur here, although the latter remains the clear favorite.
Top Half
As mentioned, I suspect Estrella Burgos to be too knackered to challenge for the title here. However, if anyone can defy the odds it’s him, of course. He has a tough second round draw with Nicolas Jarry, who had a good run at Quito as well, as he reached the second round and is ranked inside of the top 200 for the first time. He could well be the one to stop Estrella Burgos and I feel like that indeed will be the case. In the bottom section Gerald Melzer has the best chance to advance to the semi-final, building on his second round at Quito last week, where he saved match points to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer in the first round, 1-6 7-6(1) 7-6(6). He will have competition from Horacio Zeballos, who also reached the second round at Quito, where he quite frankly choked a bit in his loss against Thomaz Bellucci, 6-2 3-6 7-6(6).
Bottom Half
#7 seed Jason Kubler has an excellent opportunity to reach the quarterfinal. A knee injury is stopping the Australian from competing outside of clay, but that hasn’t stopped him from reaching the top 150 last year, coming from outside of the top 400. In all likelihood #4 seed Gastao Elias, #2 seed Albert Montanes and Roberto Carballes Baena will be his main rivals in this half. Montanes had his best result in quite some time when he reached the quarterfinal of Quito last week, beating world #31 Santiago Giraldo in the second round. If he keeps up that level, he will be able to reach the final here. Elias reached the final of the Bucaramanga Challenger two weeks ago, but randomly played the Dallas Challenger on indoor hardcourt last week, losing in the first round, so perhaps that will have a negative impact on his performance. Nonetheless, he landed in an easy section, so if he survives the first two rounds he should have picked up enough rhythm to compete for the title. Last year he faced Montanes at Hamburg and beat him 6-4 6-3 and since then the gap has only widened, making me inclined to predict another victory for the Portuguese.
Predictions
Semis:
Melzer d. Jarry
Elias d. Montanes
Final:
Elias d. Melzer
Launceston International
ATP Challenger Tour
Launceston, Australia
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: $50,000
The last direct acceptance is Andrew Whittington, ranked 492nd. Last week’s surprise semi-finalist at Burnie, Matthew Barton, received a wild card.
First round match-ups to watch
(8) Bradley Klahn – Matthew Ebden
Slowly but surely Ebden is starting to show signs of life again, beating world #133 Yuichi Sugita two tournaments in a row. This season he has gone from a first round loss, to a second round loss, to a quarterfinal loss, so following that pattern a semi-final should follow here. And it isn’t unlikely at all, since he is projected to face Sugita once again in the quarterfinal. The last time he faced Klahn, in 2013, he won 6-1 6-3, so that should spur nothing but confidence.
(3) Kyle Edmund – (WC) Matthew Barton
Barton is the man who stopped Ebden last week, reaching the semi-final as a qualifier. It will be interesting to see if he can build on that run, but Edmund is a nasty first round draw. Edmund is in great form, winning the Hong Kong Challenger and losing in the quarterfinal at Burnie last week, against the eventual winner Hyeon Chung.
Top Half
Things are looking to be heading towards a semi-final encounter between Ebden and Edmund. Edmund has a tough draw, however. If he survives the first round, last week’s Burnie finalist Alex Bolt awaits him in the second round. It will probably be between them for a semi-final spot, since the second section is remarkably weaker, headed by #7 seed Radu Albot.
Bottom Half
This will be a great test for last week’s Burnie winner Hyeon Chung to see if he has what it takes to perform well two weeks in a row. If he can, he will undoubtedly be the favorite to get through this half victorious. All the seeds are in bad form, so it will probably take another surprising Australian to trouble him, like Barton did in the semi-final last week. Jordan Thompson will be a solid candidate to do so.
Predictions
Semis:
Edmund d. Ebden
Chung d. Thompson
Final:
Chung d. Edmund
Chung beat Edmund 6-3 6-2 last week and even with a high chance of fatigue creeping up, I can’t see that radically change over the course of such a short amount of time.
Internazionali di Tennis
ATP Challenger Tour
Bergamo, Italy
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andreas Beck (110)
2: Lucas Pouille (115)
3: Farrukh Dustov (118)
4: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (123)
5: Iliya Marchenko (134)
6: Benoit Paire (149)
7: Mate Delic (152)
8: Marton Fucsovics (160)
The last direct acceptance is Jan Mertl, ranked 213th.
First round match-up to watch
(8) Marton Fucsovics – Jan Hernych
Fucsovics is playing a bizarre schedule, going from the Australian Open, to Quito and now here in Bergamo. It also hasn’t paid off, respectively losing in the second qualifying round and first round. Thirty-five year old Hernych has been preparing a lot better for this event and the crafty veteran might hand Fucsovics another early exit.
Top Half
The most interesting player to watch in this half is surprisingly enough a qualifier. Former world #51 Daniel Brands is making a comeback after suffering from mono for a long period and he is projected to play top seed Andreas Beck in the second round, against whom he should match up quite well on this fast surface. Brands already did fairly well in Zagreb last week for someone just making his comeback, losing to Copil in a third set tiebreak in the first round of qualifying. Don’t be surprised if Brands makes a run here, especially knowing that the bottom section is filled with erratic players like Aleksandr Nedovyesov, Frank Dancevic and Tim Puetz. The second round encounter between Brands and Beck is likely to determine the finalist from this half.
Bottom Half
The finalist from this half may very well be determined by a very interesting semi-final match between Benoit Paire and Lucas Pouille. Paire has looked very shaky so far in his comeback from knee injury, while Pouille is playing the best tennis of his life. This form saw Pouille reach his first ATP semi-final in Auckland last month and push Gaël Monfils to five sets at the Australian Open, so the younger Frenchman will be the favorite to advance. Other dangerous floaters in this half are Farrukh Dustov, Philipp Petzschner and Jurgen Zopp.
