Allez! Steen’s Sarasota Challenger Preview, Predictions

The Har-Tru USTA Pro Circuit Wild Card Challenge is a set of spring American challengers on clay which will determine which American player receives a French Open wild card. It kicks off with the USTA Pro Circuit Challenger in Sarasota, Florida on green clay. Allez!

Sarasota Open

USTA Pro Circuit
Sarasota, Florida, USA
April 13-April 21, 2013
Prize Money:  $100,000

Top 8 seeds

1: Michael Russell
2: Ryan Harrison
3: Martin Alund
4: Benjamin Becker
5: Jesse Levine
6: Guido Pella
7: Jack Sock
8: Wayne Odesnik

First round matchups to watch:

Rhyne Williams vs. Tennys Sandgren

Williams, the surprise semifinalist in Houston, has now proven his prowess on clay and he will fly over to Sarasota where his first round match will be against his good friend and former Tennessee teammate Tennys Sandgren.  I’m sure they have played each other many times before,mostly unofficially,  along with practicing together and know each other’s games as much as they know their own. This match will be interesting to watch.

Steve Johnson vs. Jack Sock

Both players are pretty well-known Americans with promise and neither is known for being adept on clay.  That being said, Sock is 2-1 against Johnson in his career, with all three of their matches coming on hard courts.

They both played in Houston previously with Sock winning a round and Johnson losing in the first round.

Ryan Harrison vs. Facundo Arguello

Ryan Harrison continues to struggle and is out of the top 100 and looking to build his confidence back on the challenger circuit.  It isn’t going to be an easy start. He’ll take on 20-year-old Facundo Arguello, who qualified in Houston but lost his opening round match.

Arguello is certainly better on clay, but Harrison is more experienced so this match could still go either way.

Top Half:

Michael Russell has lost 3 straight matches and will look to right the ship against Mischa Zverev, who is also struggling a bit right now.  The winner would then play wild card Kyle Edmund or British Davis Cup star James Ward and in the quarters, it could be Somdev Devvarman, Jesse Levine or a pair of qualifiers.

Benjamin Becker, coming off a 1^st round loss at a hard court challenger in Mexico, will open up on clay against a qualifier before facing the winner of Tim Smyczek, who won a match in Houston or wild card Bjorn Fratangelo.  In the quarters, Williams/Sandgren or Johnson/Sock await.

Bottom Half:

The Harrison/Arguello winner will play veteran Teymuraz Gabashvili (who Arguello just beat in Houston qualifying) or wild card Mitchell Frank and then could see clay court specialist Wayne Odesnik (coming off quarters in a Colombian challenger), if Odesnik gets past Alex Bogomolov, who won the challenger in Mexico, and the winner of Cedrik-Marcel Stebe/Adrian Menendez-Maceiras. Maceiras comes off quarters in that hard court challenger in Mexico.

Martin Alund opens with Frank Dancevic and the winner will play Ivo Karlovic or Denys Molchanov. In the quarters, Guido Pella, Bradley Klahn, (who qualified in Houston), Ze Zhang or a qualifier are all options.

Predictions:

Semis:

Williams d. Levine

Arguello d. Alund

No pun intended, this challenger is challenging to pick as the top section is made up of almost all hard court preference players, while the bottom section is stacked with most of the players who do well on clay. Regardless, Williams is motivated and has proved his mettle, most likely advancing over Smyczek yet again and the winner of the Arguello/Odesnik quarter will be a favorite over Alund or Klahn.  Guido Pella could also sneak into the semis or the final, but Alund will be the favorite to make the semis as he beat Pella 2 out of 3 times last year on clay.

Final:

Arguello d. Williams

I’ll go with the unseeded 20-year-old to take the title and most likely break into the top 200.

—S. Kirby