2017 WTA Rogers Cup Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
The North American hard court swing is now in full effect as the tour heads to Canada for the Toronto Premier event. Here is a rundown of the draw for the upcoming tournament.
Top quarter:
Karolina Pliskova is back in action as the number one player in the world, and she will be aiming to seal that ranking with another Premier title. The Czech has a first round bye and will face either Alize Cornet or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second round. Anastasija Sevastova is projected for round three, and the Latvian has a good draw with Lauren Davis first followed by the winner of an all-qualifier match. Sevastova has a winning record against Pliskova, so that could be an interesting third round match-up.
Caroline Wozniacki’s stellar year has seen her re-enter the top ten, but the Dane has yet to clinch a title in 2017. Can she go all the way in Toronto? After an opening round bye, the sixth seed will face a qualifier in round two. Agnieszka Radwanska is projected for round three, but the Pole has struggled this season with nagging injuries and could face an early exit to Coco Vandeweghe. It looks likely that the American will be Wozniacki’s third round opponent.
Angelique Kerber’s defense of her number one ranking did not go as planned, and with the US Open title defense looming, the German needs form and needs it fast. The third seed could open against Canada’s Eugenie Bouchard in the second round, which could be a tough match-up. Petra Kvitova is the seeded player in her section and we could see an all-lefty battle in the third round. The Czech faces Carla Suarez Navarro first though, then either Sloane Stephens or Yulia Putintseva.
Johanna Konta is in search of her second Premier title of the year, but she has a difficult draw ahead of her. The Brit faces either Ekaterina Makarova or Shuai Peng first, with Dominika Cibulkova the first seeded player in her section. The Slovakian opens her tournament against Lesia Tsurenko before facing Lucie Safarova or Francois Abanda. Cibulkova and Konta have met twice before and each share a straight sets victory.
Elina Svitolina continues her quest to finish the year as the world number one, and winning the Toronto title would go a long way to achieving that goal. The Ukrainian faces either Daria Kasatkina or Roberta Vinci. Venus Williams is projected for round three, and this is one of the more anticipated round three matches in the draw. The American has a decent draw to the third round with Katerina Siniakova being the toughest possible opponent.
Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza has looked in decent form since winning the SW19 title, a contrast to the pressure she felt after winning the French Open last year. The Spaniard could rematch Ana Konjuh, who she beat in Stanford in the second round. Elena Vesnina is projected for the third round, but the Russian could have a difficult time with Alison Riske and Oceane Dodin. It is overall a good draw for Muguruza and she should make the last eight.
Bottom Quarter:
Simona Halep is also battling for the right to be called the world number one, but after retiring in Washington, is the Romanian at full fitness for Toronto? The second seed has a tough opener against a big hitter in either Madison Keys or Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. Kristina Mladenovic is the third round seeded opponent, but the Frenchwoman’s early season form has halted with a back problem. Therefore she could struggle to get past Barbora Strycova in the first round. Daria Gavriova will likely await the winner.
Svetlana Kuznetsova will stand as a dark horse for the title like she is in most tournaments, but the Russian has some tough players in her draw. Julia Goerges and Cici Bellis both showed good form last week and could be a tough second round for the eighth seed. Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko has landed in this section, and whilst a qualifier in round one should not be much trouble, Caroline Garcia in round two will be a stern test for the 12th seed.
I am backing the world number one to lift the Rogers Cup, but it is not a confident prediction. The draw is stacked and very well balanced, meaning there are many feasible winners of the tournament.
What I Did This Summer: Jean-Yves Aubone (@JYNole) Reflects on 2015 Pan American Games Jean-Yves Aubone, Tennis Atlantic
USA! USA! USA!
The chants were getting louder and louder, echoing through the halls entering the stadium.
USA! USA!
Every second, more Americans were joining in the chant.
USA! USA!
American pride was oozing through the hallways. The echoes were so loud all the other teams could now hear it. The American’s are here and they want everyone to know it.
At this moment, I felt prouder to be an American than I ever had in my life.
Two days earlier – July 8
As I got off the plane and was walking towards the immigration lines in Toronto, I noticed there was a sign for anyone involved in the Pan-American Games. I understood that these games were the third largest multi-sport Games in the world, but to have our own immigration lines? That’s just too cool. Just the day before, I had received my accreditation. I didn’t know why I needed it before I left but now I knew. I showed it to the security guard at the beginning of the line and was allowed to proceed. The line was completely empty. I must have passed 100 disgruntled international travelers as they watched me go to the front of the lines.
Once my immigration forms were stamped, I grabbed my bags with a huge grin on my face, understanding how much time I saved just because I was competing in the games. I walked towards baggage claim and a gentleman who I came to know as Justin, was waiting with a sign that said “Team USA.” I’ve never had anyone wait at the airport with a sign for me, especially with one that read “Team USA.” With my confidence high after skipping through the immigration lines, I walked towards the sign thinking “I might as well see where this Pan-Am wave takes me.”
I was the guy he was waiting for. He brought me over to a desk where my accreditation was confirmed. After we picked up my bags he put me in a shuttle that was waiting for me outside. The shuttle took me to the Hilton where only Team USA members were to check in.
Upon arrival at the Hilton I was greeted by two Team USA tennis supervisors who were in charge of taking care of the team. Once the rest of the tennis players and coaches arrived we went to the check in rooms. It turned out that “checking in” meant “get all your Team USA Nike gear and Oakley sunglasses.”
Once the check in was complete we took our Team USA duffle bags full of gear and the men’s and women’s tennis teams loaded up two vans. We were going to stay at a hotel near the tennis center instead of the athlete’s village. The hotel was 10 minutes away WITH traffic. The village was downtown, at least 45 minutes away.
As cool as it would have been to stay in the village and meet so many great athletes, I wasn’t complaining. Staying in the hotel meant my fiancé was able to come and stay in the room with me. Staying at the village would have prevented this from happening. Being able to share such an incredible experience with my fiancé was priceless to me. When I played in the qualifying of the 2008 Men’s US Open I had no family there. This time I had my fiancé who was able to see and feel everything I was feeling. I could talk to her about a certain moment and she could say “I know, it was amazing,” rather than “Wow, that must have been cool.”
Business as usual – July 9
The tennis events were held at the Aviva Center at York University. The Center was built in 2004 to host Rogers Cup, one of the biggest men’s and women’s professional events, every year. Other than practicing at such a prestigious center, it was business as usual. We went through the same practice routines as we would at any other event the day before a match.
Game day – July 10
JY On Court
I was scheduled to play the first match on stadium court at 10am. With the capacity to hold 12,500 people, it was by far the largest stadium I had ever played in. Fortunately I practiced on stadium court the day I arrived, so I knew what to expect.
As the match against Mexico’s Hans Hach was set to begin, I waited in the tunnel entrance until security informed me it was time to enter the court. While doing some simple dynamic movements to keep the nerves at bay, it dawned on me that in this tunnel, some of the greatest players in tennis–Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic–all waited in the very spot I was standing in to go out for their match. And now here I was, waiting for my name to be called so I could walk out to center court and represent the United States of America in one of the biggest events in the world.
After losing a close first set filled with nervous mistakes, I got up an early break in the second set and went to the back fence. As the ball kids were throwing the balls down to my opponents side of the court, I touched the fence and walked alongside it. I told myself to take everything in for a second. I glimpsed around the stadium and noticed there couldn’t have been more than 100 fans. I felt the hot cement court under my shoes. I then looked at my team and fiancé just to the right. I thought to myself “win or lose, I will have still represented, what in my mind is the greatest country on earth, in one of the biggest events in the world. No one will ever be able to take that away from me.” A big smile came to my face.
About 45 minutes later my opponent sent a backhand cross-court wide and it was game, set, and match for me, for Team USA.
That night was the opening ceremony. I’m not sure why it’s called the opening ceremony when events have already started, but whatever. I was happy to be there and even happier knowing that I was still in the running for some medals. I couldn’t imagine what it must feel like to walk in front of 45,000 people knowing I was already eliminated.
Every country was brought into a giant lobby in a building next to the Rogers Centre, home of the Toronto Blue Jays. While everyone anxiously awaited for their country to be called into the ceremony, athletes and coaches roamed around, asking others to trade for pins. Pins were the personal prize of the Games. With every new pin acquired from a different country, each athlete turned into a 5-year-old, showing the prize off to their teammates.
Finally the call came, “United States of America, you’re up.”
Immediately every American stopped what they were doing and began walking towards the two large open doors in the corner that lead into the Centre. Once into the hallway of the Centre, Team USA’s national pride couldn’t be contained any longer. USA! USA! USA! The only times I sang that chant were as an observing fan while watching USA compete in an event like the World Cup. This time, I wasn’t a fan. I was singing along with the rest of the athletes that were selected to represent USA.
As we walked in front of the sold out crowd, I made sure to put the phone down and stop recording. I wanted to take this moment in just like I did on the tennis court that day. It was surreal. Unfortunately it went by so fast it felt like a dream. I replayed the videos on my phone hundreds of times just to make sure it was a reality.
Jean-Yves at Opening Ceremonies
It’s over – July 11/12
I ended up losing a tough three set match in the next round to Venezuela’s top singles player. My partner (Dennis Novikov) and I ended up losing in three sets in the quarterfinals, one round short of the medal rounds.
I felt such a deep sadness following the doubles loss. My chances at winning a medal at the Pan-American Games were gone. The walk back to the locker room took years. I did everything I could to be mentally and physically ready for the games. I tailored my schedule and training so that I would be peaking at the Games. Finding out that our doubles opponents went on to win the gold made me feel even worse. I knew it could have been Dennis and I at the top of the podium.
Medal Ceremony
I want to thank my fiancé for making the trip to Toronto. I want to thank both the men’s and women’s teams for making this such a fun trip. All of you were fantastic teammates and even better people to be around. It was a pleasure meeting everyone and I wish you nothing but the best. I want to thank Brad Stine. Simply put, you’re a great coach. I can’t forget Jeff and Derrick for going above and beyond to provide the teams with everything we needed. You guys did way too much. Finally, I want to thank everyone at the USTA who made this possible. You gave me a chance at representing my country in one of the biggest events in the world. For that, I will be forever grateful.
Belinda Bencic completed a dream run by defeating Simona Halep to claim the Rogers Cup in Toronto.
The 18-year-old, who had already knocked out Caroline Wozniacki, Serena Williams and Ana Ivanovic, triumphed 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 3-0 in the scorching conditions to claim her second career title.
Bencic had already made a name for herself as one of the tours brightest prospects, but her status has certainly risen after an incredible week. First Eugenie Bouchard was the victim, then Wozniacki, Sabine Lisicki, Ivanovic and world number one Serena before Halep in Sunday’s final- undoubtedly one of the greatest runs to a Premier title.
The Swiss battled with the Romanian for two and a half hour as the pair exchanged tie-break sets. Eventually the heat became too much for the second seed as she was forced to retire due to illness three games in to the final set.
“I don’t think I’m so good at speeches yet!” Bencic said post match. “But first I want to congratulate Simona on a great week, and my mom, my dad and my team. And my fitness coach – I really needed my fitness today! And also Melanie Molitor, my coach – a big thank you to you too.
“And of course a big thank you to all the crowd. You were amazing in every match this week. It’s just been such a special tournament, and I’ll never forget it – I can’t wait to come back next year.”
Bencic now has two WTA titles, having won the Eastbourne title in June. This is her first at Premier 5 level, making the 18 year old the first teenager to win a title at this level since Victoria Azarenka in Miami six years ago.
To add to the success of winning a title, Bencic will move up to 12 in the world rankings putting her contention for a top 16 seeding for the US Open where she will defend semi-final points. She is also 12th in the race rankings putting herself in contention for the season ending championships in Singapore.
Both finalists will head to Cincinnati for the second Premier level event in as many weeks. Halep apologised for being unable to finish the match.
“Sorry I couldn’t finish, I fought as hard as I could. Thanks to all the fans for the support” Halep said.
The doubles title went to Lucie Safarova and Bethanie Mattek Sands. The third seeded pair have continued their great year by defeating fourth seeds Katerina Srebotnik and Caroline Garcia 6-1, 6-2.
2015 WTA Rogers Cup Toronto Preview and Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
US Open preparations are now in full swing with the Rogers Cup next on the WTA calendar. The event is held in Toronto this year after being held in Montreal last season. The Premier event rotates between the two major Canadian cities, with the ATP event being held on the same week in the alternating city.
A whole host of all-time greats have won the Rogers cup. Chris Evert and Monica Seles lead the way with four titles each, followed by Martina Navratilova and Serena Williams with three. Agnieszka Radwanska in the defending champion.
The Rogers Cup
Tier: Premier
Location: Toronto, Canada
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $2,377,305
Date: August 10th- 16th 2015
Top eight seeds who receive a first round bye (ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Simona Halep (3)
3. Petra Kvitova (4)
4. Caroline Wozniacki (5)
5. Ana Ivanovic (6)
6. Agnieszka Radwanska (7)
7. Lucie Safarova (8)
8. Garbine Muguruza (9)
All the top players are here except Maria Sharapova, who withdrew due to a right leg injury.
First round matches to watch:
(14) Venus Williams vs Sabine Lisicki:
A big serving battle between Sabine Lisicki and 14th seed Venus Williams would have undoubtedly caught the eye of tennis fans across the world, and for good reason. This one has potential to be a barn burner if both are playing well, and could be an awesome display of power tennis.
Venus’ stint in Istanbul lasted all of one match as she would be upset by Kateryna Bondarenko in the opening round. Having not played on the American hard courts since the swing started, the world number 15’s form is unknown. The 35 year old has never won this event, but did make the final in Montreal last year.
Lisicki’s US hard court season started out with a disappointing loss to 44 year old Kimiko Date Krumm in Stanford. You never know what you will get from Lisicki, but her record in North America has been good this year with some good runs in Indian Wells and Miami.
The German leads the head to head 2-1 with the last meeting being in Beijing 2013. This match is a definition of a toss-up with the form of either player unknown, but it could turn out to be one of the best matches of the year if they both play to their capabilities.
Belinda Bencic (Photo: Chris Levy @Tennis_Shots)
Eugenie Bouchard vs Belinda Bencic:
Eugenie Bouchard will look to get out of her slump when she faces talented teenager Belinda Bencic the opening round of her home tournament.
Bouchard will undoubtedly have the support of the Toronto crowd, but her form has been nothing short of shocking this year. After lighting the tennis world up with her deep grand slam runs in 2014, the Canadian has slumped in 2015 winning only one of her last ten matches.
Bencic on the other hand continues her rise up the world rankings, and will look to prepare her US Open semi-final defence with a good run in Toronto. The Swiss won her first title in Eastbourne, and followed it up with a fourth round run at Wimbledon. She recently feel early in Washington however.
Bencic leads the head to head 1-0 with hr victory over Bouchard in Eastbourne. The 18 year old is the favourite going by form, but the home crowd could boost Bouchard back in to form. Can the Canadian find herself again, or will the slump continue?
Victoria Azarenka vs Elina Svitolina:
Two of the best unseeded players in the draw have had the misfortune of facing each other in the opening round, as former world number one Victoria Azarenka plays rising youngster Elina Svitolina.
Azarenka saw her 2014 season plagued with injury, and now with that behind her the former world number one is looking to regain her position amongst the elite. The Belarusian was scheduled to play Washington, but pulled out prior to the tournament. Therefore she has not played since losing a tight quarter final to Serena at Wimbledon. Hard courts suit Vika more than any other surface, but she has never won this event.
Svitolina will be riding fairly high after a semi-final run in Stanford. She was routine by Angelique Kerber in the final four, but it was still a good form booster for the 20 year old. The Ukrainian has aspirations of winning all four grand slams (her words), and a good start towards achieving that would be to beat a two time Australian Open champion.
Azarenka was taken to three sets in their only prior meeting in Doha earlier this year. The world number 19 ran out a 6-3, 6-7, 6-1 winner that day, though she will hope this match will be more routine. Svitolina will look to avenge that loss as she continues her ranking ascension. It should be a great battle especially in the backhand rallies which is both players’ biggest weapon. Which one will hold up best?
Draw Analysis:
World number one Serena Williams is returning to action since playing only the single match in Bastad a week after Wimbledon. The top seed is preparing for an historic US Open where she could potentially achieve the calendar year grand slam and win her 22nd Grand Slam title. Williams will receive a first round BYE courtesy of her seeding and will play either Flavia Pennetta or Gabriela Dabrowski in the second round. The other seed in this mini section is Andrea Petkovic who is coming in off a loss to compatriot Mona Barthel in Stanford. The German will look to get the ‘Petko dance’ going against home favourite Francois Abanda in round one and a qualifier in round two before her likely showdown with Serena in the third round.
Seventh seeded Lucie Safarova failed to really build on her run to the French Open final during grass season, but now back on hard courts the Czech can start to re-find that Roland Garros form. Like Serena, Safarova receives an opening round BYE due to her seeding and will begin her campaign in round two against Sam Stosur or Daria Gavrilova. The Aussie showed good form in her title win in Bad Gastein, though a loss to Sloane Stephens in Washington might have dented that confidence. Karolina Pliskova- who is fresh off an excellent week in Stanford is the other seed in this section of the draw. She faces a qualifier in round one with Roberta Vinci or Karin Knapp awaiting the Czech in the second round. It is possible we could see an all Czech encounter in round three with the winner possibly facing Serena in the quarter finals.
Former champion Caroline Wozniacki is one of the bigger beneficiaries of Sharapova’s withdrawal having been granted a fourth seed as a result. Bouchard or Bencic will await the Dane after a first round BYE in one of the more anticipated second round potentials. Venus could be the third round opponent. The American has a tough draw however with Lisicki in round one and the winner of Varvara Lepchenko vs Barbora Strycova in round two.
Ana Ivanovic will be trying her hand at a new coach this week. The first test of their relationship will be against either a qualifier or Irina Begu, who has had a solid year so far. Ekaterina Makarova is the projected third round opponent, though Alison Van Uytvank could pose an interesting challenge in round two. Makarova vs Ivanovic will most certainly be a tight one.
2012 champion Petra Kvitova had a disappointing defence of her Wimbledon crown, but the third seed is back to get her season on track. She could potentially have a blockbuster round two against Azarenka if the Belarusian can survive the tough test of Svitolina in the first round. A potential for a top seed to drop out very early there. Sara Errani will look to take advantage though Kristina Mladenovic could easily spring a surprise in round one. The winner of that should make the third round, but it hard to see them going any further.
All eyes will be on eighth seed Garbine Muguruza who is playing her first tournament since making the Wimbledon final. How will she cope with the added pressure on her shoulders? First indications will be seen in the second round against a qualifier, but the first major test will come in the third round where she is projected to face Timea Bascinszky who is having a great year. Muguruza has won their two meetings this year.
Simona Halep originally planned to skip this event, but due to her bad form in recent months the world number three has taken a wildcard and will be the second seed. She will have a first round BYE, but could have a troubling second round against the winner of Caroline Garcia vs Jelena Jankovic. Angelique Kerber will be the favourite the make it out of this section, but the German could be tired after a long final in Stanford. She should make round three with both her opening two rounds being qualifiers, but fatigue and the bad form of Halep could open the door for Garcia or Jankovic to make a surprise run.
That could also open the door for sixth seed Agnieszka Radwanska to make the semi finals. The Pole has got her season back on track after an impressive grass season which has seen her re-enter the top 10. Zarina Diyas or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will await in round two, both of which could be troubling in different ways. Carla Suarez Navarro is the projected third round opponent but the winner of Sloane Stephens vs Dominika Cibulkova could easily upset the Spaniard.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had a resurgent week at the Rogers Cup in Toronto and after a 7-5 7-6 victory over Roger Federer, will return to the top 10 for the first time since March. The title in Toronto the second career masters title for the charismatic Frenchman and his first title overall of the 2014 campaign.
Tsonga beat four of the top 10 this week posting big wins over Novak Djokovic in straights, Andy Murray in 3 sets and Grigor Dimitrov in straights in consecutive matches to reach the final. He also beat Jeremy Chardy and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the second and first rounds respectively. After being in a noticeable decline all season, a return to elite quality for Tsonga comes as a surprise and throws a wrench in what many fans and pundits thought about him and his game as of late. Tsonga has struggled to stay healthy, but he clearly has talent and he could pose a dangerous threat at the US Open in a couple of weeks. He looked fresh and his forehand and serve were clicking as he moved his opponents well to win matches, he truly was a dominant virile player this week, and his play was a throwback to his earlier promise.
Federer also had a strong week, even though he’ll be disappointed by his play in the final, He reached his third masters final of the season (0-3 record now) with wins over Peter Polansky in straights, Marin Cilic in 3 sets, David Ferrer in 3 sets and Feliciano Lopez, a surprise semifinalist in straight sets. Fed does not appear to be ready to fall out of the top 5 anytime soon and he hit circles around most of his opponents this week, along with showing superior mental fortitude and shot selection.
2014 ATP Rogers Cup Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The first of two Masters 1000 level events on the Emirates Airlines US Open Series will take place this year in Toronto starting Monday. Most of the big names are in action and it is the first tune up for many of them before the US Open.
Rogers Cup 2014
ATP Toronto Rogers Cup ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Toronto, Canada
August 4-August 10, 2014
Prize Money: $3,766,270
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (3)
3: Stan Wawrinka (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (5)
5: David Ferrer (6)
6: Milos Raonic (7)
7: Grigor Dimitrov (8)
8: Andy Murray (10)
Notably missing from the tournament are defending champion and world number 2 Rafael Nadal with a wrist injury, and top 40 players Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro and Dmitry Tursunov. Juan Martin Del Potro, Alex Dolgopolov, and Tommy Haas are also notable names we aren’t likely to see again this season.
First round matchups to watch:
Radek Stepanek vs. Gael Monfils
Stepanek was upset early in DC and seeks to rebound, while Monfils is finally beginning his post Wimbledon campaign. Both players are seeking to stay healthy and do well, and the style contrast will be fun in this one. They have met many times before and Monfils holds a 5-3 edge in the overall h2h, with it tied 2-2 on outdoor hard courts, the last meetings coming in 2011. I could see this going either way but I’m leaning towards picking Monfils to prevail.
(12)Richard Gasquet vs. Vasek Pospisil
Pospisil now has won two meetings against Gasquet, and he just beat him in the DC semis on Saturday, in that match Gasquet got off to a good start but let his advantage slip in the next two sets and bowed out in a 7-5 third set. The advantage should swing back to Gasquet for this meeting though, as I’m favoring the Frenchman to get his first win in the series because he did return to form in Washington DC after being on a cold streak for a while, and Pospisil, under the pressure of playing at home and defending semifinal points here, is likely to be fatigued after playing so much tennis this past week in DC. That slight change in circumstances, along with Gasquet being a motivated former finalist twice at the Rogers Cup, should make this match even more interesting.
Ivo Karlovic vs. (Q)Bernard Tomic
Another reprisal of a recent high stakes match, Tomic beat Karlovic in three sets by winning a pair of tiebreaks to win the title in Bogota, and will get the big serving Croat again as a qualifier in the Toronto first round. He has two other previous wins over Ivo outside of the Bogota meeting, and does seem to have the formula to get past Dr. Ivo’s serve and volley game
Santiago Giraldo vs. (WC)Nick Kyrgios
DC quarterfinalist Santiago Giraldo, who has had a solid season and is a big hitting shotmaker from the baseline, will do battle with the passionate and fiery Kyrgios, who as a wild card will be playing his first Masters tournament match in Toronto. The young Kyrgios has a heap of talent, great composure and a lot of eyes on him right now as he seeks to follow up his career result at Wimbledon where he beat Nadal and reached the quarterfinals. The winner will meet Andy Murray and this one should be an excellent match full of shotmaking highlights, I favor Kyrgios to get through in 3 sets.
Kevin Anderson vs. (Q)Thanasi Kokkinakis
Young Aussies Kokkinakis and Kyrgios could both win their ATP Masters main draw debuts in Toronto. Kokkinakis, who qualified and has had a good few weeks at the challenger level on hard courts will face the big serving Anderson, who is a solid hard court player but has been down in recent weeks, as he exited earlier than expected in DC, and was upset in his opening match in Atlanta as well. Kokkinakis will have to hold his serve and return well, as Anderson will put a lot of pressure on him with his serve/forehand combo that is elite, but he has a punchers chance if he can keep his nose ahead in the match.
Top Half:
Three time Rogers Cup champion and odds on favorite for a fourth, Novak Djokovic, will face Stepanek/Monfils to start, and then likely Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is making his post Wimbledon debut and looking for a stronger third quarter of his season, in round 3. Tsonga must defeat Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Jeremy Chardy/Federico Delbonis to get to that stage. Djokovic has owned Tsonga in recent years and that trend should continue.
Andy Murray, who is also making his post Wimbledon debut, and seeking to make a move back up the rankings with a strong hard court summer, will face Kyrgios/Giraldo in a big round 2 test, and should he survive he will face Gasquet/Pospisil or Karlovic/Tomic in round 3. It’s a tough draw for Murray but he should be rested and motivated, look for him to get through to meet Djokovic in the quarters.
Stan Wawrinka, also looking to put up a solid result in his post Wimbledon campaign resumption, will face Benoit Paire or Alejandro Falla in round 2. Paire, who had to qualify here, is best friends with Wawrinka and I doubt one will enjoy having to eliminate the other from the tournament should they meet. Look for Wawrinka against one of Kokkinakis/Anderson/Mikhail Youzhny/Fabio Fognini in round 3. Youzhny and Fognini are both struggling, so Kokkinakis/Anderson have a nice chance at making the third round, and Wawrinka should be favored through to the quarterfinals.
Grigor Dimitrov, hopefully healthy again, is also making his post-Wimbledon debut and has had a breakout season. The top Bulgarian may be tested by an in-form Donald Young in round 2, assuming the DC semifinalist Young can defeated Canadian wild card Frank Dancevic. Young made his first semi since 2011 in DC, but assuming Dimitrov is healthy I think he has too much game for the American baseliner (the h2h surprisingly is tied 2-2 and Young leads 2-1 on hard courts). Dimitrov/Young is slated to face one of Tommy Robredo/Philipp Kohlschreiber/Gilles Simon/Dominic Thiem in round 3. Robredo and Kohlschreiber are both struggling veterans, as is Simon, who may also be injured, while Thiem should be tired after playing in the Kitzbuhel final. Someone has to reach round 3 though and Kohlschreiber or Thiem is most likely to do so. Dimitrov/Young are quarterfinalist favorites in this section.
Bottom Half:
Roger Federer, seeking to win his third Rogers Cup, will open with Peter Polansky or Jerzy Janowicz, and should get his first big test against Marin Cilic in round 3. Cilic has been good on multiple surfaces this season, including hard courts and is close to reaching the best level of his career. He has never beaten Federer (0-4 last meeting in 2012) and would need to get past Denis Istomin and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Marinko Matosevic, a trio of players who can pull upsets on hard courts, to setup a fifth shot at Federer, but the match should at least be competitive if they meet. Look for Federer to be a quarterfinalist out of his section.
David Ferrer has had a down year this season and is on pace to have fewer wins and more losses than in any of his previous four seasons on tour. He was upset here in his first match last year and though Nicolas Mahut/Michael Russell don’t look like difficult opening match tests, Ferrer has shown he is vulnerable to being upset by journeyman over the past two seasons. He is carrying an elbow injury according to media reports but did not withdraw from the tournament like those reports suggested. If he’s not healthy, an already out of form Ferrer, who seems to have hit the wall, could be upset in his first match, if not look for 10 seed John Isner to send him home in round 3.
Isner seeks to bounce back from a disappointing showing in DC and he faces big server Ivan Dodig, playing his first match since the French Open after being injured, in round 1, Dodig should be unprepared to deal with Isner who plays a similar style as himself, and Isner should get through to face Andreas Seppi/Brayden Schnur in round 2. Canadian qualifier Schnur is making his ATP debut this week after working his way up through college tennis and the challenger circuit. Look for a Federer vs. Isner quarterfinal this week.
Tomas Berdych, another top 10 name who is struggling and was upset early in DC as the top seed, faces Rendy Lu or Marcel Granollers in his first match, and assumingly should advance to round 3 against most likely Roberto Bautista Agut who upset him earlier this spring in Indian Wells. RBA has two titles this season and is close to reaching the top 15 in ranking, he faces a struggling Feliciano Lopez in round 1, and then Tim Smyczek/Tobias Kamke in round 2 before a likely Berdych meeting. Smyczek tore it up in qualifying and is looking to have a resurgent result after slogging through a difficult 2014 season thus far. I look for Bautista Agut to beat Berdych again and reach the quarterfinals.
Defending finalist and DC champ Milos Raonic, one of the two prides of Canada along with Pospisil this week, will have a quick turnaround against Jack Sock/Jurgen Melzer in round 2. Raonic beat Sock in DC winning a pair of tiebreaks last week and overall he has beaten the American 3 times this year and four times overall, losing to him once in their maiden meeting in February 2013. The in form wild card Sock should beat Melzer who was playing on the clay of Kitzbuhel this week, and I give him a good chance against Raonic as well. Milos is likely to be tired and all of their previous head to head meetings have been relatively close. With Sock playing some of the best tennis of his young career right now, beating Raonic would be a stellar result for him. Raonic/Sock are likely to face Ernests Gulbis, always a dangerous lurker, in round 3. Gulbis must defeat Joao Sousa and Lleyton Hewitt/Julien Benneteau to reach that stage. Gulbis vs. Hewitt would be an entertaining and fiery round 2 encounter with Gulbis being slightly favored, they have never met before. This is probably the most open section of the draw and cases can be made for Raonic, Sock, Gulbis and Hewitt to be quarterfinalists.
Dark Horses: Donald Young and Jack Sock
American players have a great chance to post some surprising results at the Rogers Cup this week with Isner, Russell, Smyczek and two players I’ll spotlight for this tournament as dark horses, Young and Sock all having reasonable draws on paper.Young would need to beat Dimitrov but could reach the quarterfinals if he does so as the draw opens up until it gets to Wawrinka. Sock must beat Raonic and Gulbis/Hewitt as discussed, but he could also reach the quarterfinals where Bautista-Agut/Berdych are likely opponents. Sock has a more favorable potential quarterfinal opponent of the two dark horses this week.
Predictions
Quarters: Djokovic d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov
Bautista Agut d. Gulbis
Federer d. Isner
Djokovic beat Murray this season in Miami and he is a gear above the Scot right now, Murray could make it competitive but I don’t see him winning. Dimitrov had no trouble with Wawrinka this season on grass but Wawrinka won their only hard court meeting in 2011 and though it’s a very difficult pick, I’m going with Stan by just a hair, probably in 3 sets. In the hardest to predict quarter, I’m going against the 3-0 h2h in favor of Gulbis, including two wins this season, and picking Bautista Agut. The Spaniard is improving and has had better recent results than Ernie, also their two meetings this season went 3 sets and having watched them both, they were competitive contests where either player could have prevailed based upon just a few points. Federer should be a gear above Isner as well, and he has a 4-1 h2h advantage in that matchup.
Semis: Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Federer d. Bautista Agut
Stan and Nole have an excellent rivalry going, one of the best in the game currently, and should they reprise it in Toronto, Novak should have the advantage. He’s been the legitimate number one this season and has been elite all year, Wawrinka got him at the AO, but in a best of 3 sets format given both current form and mindset, Novak has to be favored like he has been in all of their previous head to head meetings, a vast majority of which he has won.
Fed and RBA have never met but Federer is the better player and should win.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
With Nadal out, the spotlight shifts to Djokovic and Fed this week in Toronto, they contested a very competitive Wimbledon final, along with three other tournament matches this season, all of which came in the semis or final of a tournament. The h2h this season is split 2-2, and on outdoor hard court Djokovic won in 3 sets in Indian Wells, and before that Federer won in 3 sets in Dubai. Things are very close between these two titans of the sport almost every time they meet to do battle, however a slight edge seems to be favoring Djokovic right now and I’m picking him as the champ this week. ]
Also I’d like to introduce a friendly battle of the brackets between myself and our new ATP Challenger Tour journalist at Tennis East Coast, Chris De Waard, I’ll be including Chris’ weekly picks for the ATP tournaments on my preview posts and we will keep track of our selections compared to the actual results of the tournaments, at the end of the season the winner gets a prize yet to be named.
Chris De Waard’s Picks:
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Dimitrov
Raonic d. Bautista Agut
Federer d. Ferrer
.@RISKE4REWARDS: Close to Home, But Still Not Messin’ Around With Those Cleveland Browns Steve Fogleman, cross-posted at TennisPanorama.com
Alison Riske grew up in Pittsburgh, a mere two hours from Cleveland, but this week marks the first time the 23-year-old has ever been to this nearly-neighboring fair city.
As a die-hard Pittsburgh Steelers fan, Riske is jovial and simultaneously serious about her love of the Steelers spoiling her desire to camp out in Cleveland.
“Never came. It is Browns territory, so I’m like ‘I’m not setting foot over there’.
I wouldn’t want to come to Cleveland for any other occasion than Fed Cup.”
The World #46 admitted this without hesitation when I caught up with her outside of the Grand Ballroom of the Marriott at Key Center on the eve of her maiden Fed Cup voyage as a player.
Riske was a designated hitting partner six years ago as a 17-year-old at the US Fed Cup tie in Moscow and appreciated the experience.
“I got my feet wet. I think that was the whole point of being a ‘Future Fed Cupper’.
Riske joins Cleveland native Lauren Davis in the fifth and final rubber on Sunday in doubles against Alice Matteucci and Nastassja Burnett. It could be crucial.
Though she can cross ‘Fed Cup’ off of the old Bucket List for now, she says she’ll gladly come back and play singles anytime.
The secret is out. Bucket list: rep USA in Fed Cup. Checkkkkkk #USAUSAUSALLDAY
FUN FACT: Riske is the only regarded WTA player who lists Washington, DC as her address. But she’ll be filling out a change of address form sometime soon.
She’ll head to Toronto to rejoin her coach, Yves Boulais, who she followed to the Junior Tennis Champions Center in College Park, Maryland a year ago. She will train full-time in Canada. Boulais left Maryland and returned to College Park late last year. She credits him for muchof her success.
“I feel like my game has transformed into something I can build on. It’s really exciting and I think the best is yet to come.”
