2017 ATP Quito Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The ATP Golden Swing on South American clay kicks off on the high altitude courts of Quito, Ecuador for a 250 stop drawing a good number of the ATP’s clay court specialists. Here is a preview, with predictions for the Ecuador Open.
Ecuador Open
ATP World Tour 250
Quito, Ecuador
February 6-12, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $482,060
Top 4 Seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ivo Karlovic (19)
2: Albert Ramos (30)
3: Paolo Lorenzi (43)
4: Thomaz Bellucci (67)
Just one top 20 player is playing in Quito, making this quite an open field early in the season.
First round matches to watch:
Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. (WC)Janko Tipsarevic
The 32 year old Tipsarevic has started the season in red hot form, going 10-0 at the Challenger tour level. After being awarded a wild card in Quito, he’ll face fellow veteran Gimeno-Traver, who also used to be ranked higher than he is now. Tipsarevic isn’t as solid on clay usually as the dirtballer DGT, but given his great form, he should win this match, and perhaps make a deeper run in this 250.
Top Half:
Veteran Victor Estrella looks set to reach the quarterfinals, given his first two opponents will be a struggling Andrej Martin, and Ivo Karlovic, who is poor on clay, given the red dirt absorbs his powerful serves. Four dirtballers are in the section below VEB, Joao Souza faces qualifier Federico Gaio, while Gerald Melzer will face #6 Horacio Zeballos. None of these players are in great form, but Zeballos over Gaio is my pick to reach the quarters. Given Estrella leads Zeballos in the h2h, the Dominican #1 is my pick to reach the semifinals.
Thomaz Bellucci has struggled to start the season, this gives Janko Tipsarevic a great opportunity to defeat him and DGT to reach the quarterfinals. Santiago Giraldo should defeat Benjamin Becker, who is poor on clay, and then I have him defeating Renzo Olivo, after Olivo dispatches Emilio Gomez. Olivo has been solid below the tour level, but Giraldo is more experienced in ATP matches, and should play better at a high altitude. I have Tipsarevic defeating Giraldo to reach the semifinals.
Bottom Half:
A solid clay courter at the ATP level, Albert Ramos should be good enough to defeat qualifier Alejandro Falla or Alessandro Giannessi in his first match. 22 year old Thiago Monteiro has a favorable draw, opening with wild card Giovanni Lapentti, followed by either qualifier Roberto Carballes Baena, or Rogerio Dutra Silva. The matchup between RCB and RDS is a toss-up, but Monteiro is my pick for the quarterfinals, before falling to Ramos.
Paolo Lorenzi is coming off of Davis Cup duty and should face qualifier Agustin Velotti in round 2, presuming Velotti defeats Matthew Ebden, who is poor on clay. Fatigue could play a factor for Lorenzi, but otherwise he should reach the quarterfinals and face an Argentine, either Nicolas Kicker or Guido Andreozzi. Alexandr Dolgopolov is also in this section, but he’s been struggling for a while, and a win over serve and volleyer Rajeev Ram in round 1 likely isn’t enough to give him a boost on clay, a surface he’s hit and miss on. Lorenzi over Andreozzi is my pick in the quarters.
The formerly top 10 Tipsarevic has endured a rash of injuries, but is on the cusp of returning to the top 100. He has a shot at reaching 300 career tour wins this season, after posting seven last season. The draw in Quito makes the title ripe for the taking, and if the Serbian can find his form on clay, he could leave the tournament as champion.
Prediction
Semis Tipsarevic d. Estrella
Ramos d. Lorenzi
Ramos should be fresher than Lorenzi, while Tipsarevic’s form gives him a slight edge over Estrella despite having lost their only h2h match. Ramos has won his last two matches against Lorenzi (2-2 h2h). Estrella is bidding for a third straight title in Quito, and that adds yet another wrinkle to a potential semifinal clash with Tipsarevic.
Final Ramos d. Tipsarevic
It’s hard to predict a champion in Quito, but on clay, Ramos is as good of a pick as any from this field of 28.
2016 Santo Domingo and Bergamo Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Milex Open At La Bocha 2016
ATP Challenger Tour
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
8-14 February 2016
Green Clay, Har-Tru
Prize Money: $75,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Victor Estrella Burgos (58)
2: Horacio Zeballos (118)
3: Gerald Melzer (120)
4: Roberto Carballes Baena (129)
5: Andrej Martin (141)
6: Alejandro Gonzalez (151)
7: Andre Ghem (153)
8: Joao Souza (154)
The last direct acceptance is Maxime Chazal, ranked 264th.
First round match-up to watch
(1) Victor Estrella Burgos – Gonzalo Lama
Estrella Burgos did the unthinkable in Quito last week, defending the title he amazed the tennis world with exactly one year ago. With a lot on the line, an early loss would have meant an exit from the top 100, he secured another year of ATP main draw tennis for himself. He will undoubtedly turn up to this event as it’s in his home country, but if he will actually play is uncertain and probably even unlikely after last week’s heroic effort.
Third seed Gerald Melzer has been in excellent form lately, reaching a career high ranking of #120 after winning the Bucaramanga Challenger two weeks ago. Especially with Estrella Burgos likely being out of the picture, he should bet he clear favorite to reach the final from this half. Outsiders might be fifth seed Andrej Martin and qualifier Pere Riba, the former world #65.
Bottom Half
Second seed Horacio Zeballos has already left the tournament after a first round beatdown from Alessandro Giannessi, 6-1 6-3. It’s likely to see this half being decided in a quarterfinal showdown between Joao Souza and Roberto Carballes Baena, with the latter being the slight favorite. Carballes Baena is creeping closer to the top 100, reaching the second round at Quito last week, where he fell in three sets to top seed and world #20 Bernard Tomic.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Melzer d. Martin
Carballes Baena d. Giannessi
Final:
Melzer d. Carballes Baena
Trofeo Perrel – FAIP
ATP Challenger Tour
Bergamo, Italy
8-14 February 2016
Hardcourt
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Yuki Bhambri (100)
2: Ruben Bemelmans (107)
3: Nikoloz Basilashvili (116)
4: Mirza Basic (119)
5: Michael Berrer (121)
6: Go Soeda (127)
7: Dustin Brown (133)
8: Konstantin Kravchuk (135)
The last direct acceptance is Tristan Lamasine, ranked 195th.
First round match-up to watch
(5) Michael Berrer – (WC) Radek Stepanek
Stepanek
This should be a highly entertaining match-up between two veterans. 35-year-old Berrer comes off an excellent showing at Montpellier, where he beat Borna Coric and Kenny De Schepper before barely falling to Alexander Zverev, 7-6(2) 2-6 5-7. 37-year-old Stepanek reached the second round at the Australian Open in singles, but topped that in doubles, losing a very close final with fellow veteran Daniel Nestor to Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares, 6-2 4-6 5-7. Stepanek and Berrer played each other once, in the second round of the 2009 Australian Open, with Stepanek winning 6-3 6-2 6-7(3) 7-5.
Top Half
It’s not inconceivable that the winner of Stepanek – Berrer will determine the winner of this half. On the very quick Bergamo surface, they have the tools to succeed. However, there will be sufficient competition from someone like Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who also has the tools to succeed on indoor hardcourts and has a managable draw.
Bottom Half
Seventh seed Dustin Brown is back to the Challenger grind after his heroic run at Montpellier last week. After beating Steve Darcis, Gilles Simon and Ruben Bemelmans for a place in the semi-final, he nearly beat world #10 Richard Gasquet, but fell after being up a set and a break and playing absolutely spectacular tennis, 6-1 4-6 3-6. As we know it’s anyone’s guess if he will repeat that form here, so it’s hard to put a prediction on it. He has a favorable draw, however, so he is definitely a favorite to at least reach the semi-final, where he might meet his quarterfinal opponent of last week, Ruben Bemelmans.
David Goffin Interview Highlight of 2015 ATP Munich Wednesday Marc Imperatori for Tennis Atlantic
Goffin won and we snagged an interview with him (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
Yesterday was my last day at the BMW Open. Four R2 Singles matches, all R1 Doubles matches as well as Pablo Andujar vs. Joao Souza, the only remaining R1 match, were scheduled. The real magic happened on court 1 with three consecutive exciting matches. I had an interview with the winner of the last one, David Goffin. You can read it further down.
You´ve got to love the atmosphere there. A small court that has stands behind and in front of the players´ benches. In close matches there are people standing all around the court to get a view on the match. Then there´s all the noise from the music played on centre court during changeovers or between matches. It all adds to a great “outside court” atmosphere.
The opening match was a battle between two clay-court specialists, Joao Souza (Brazil) and Pablo Andujar (Spain). The latter reached the final in Barcelona by beating Ferrer and Fognini. Souza on the other hand should be well known for his Davis Cup epics: Two days after winning against Carlos Berlocq in 5 hours, he came back from 2 sets down, saved several match points just to lose 13-15 in the fifth set against Leonardo Mayer in more than 7 hours (in the Brazil-Argentina WG Round 1 tie). In this match both players showed their abilities on the red dirt. Andujar was extremly consistent from the baseline by hitting with great depth and angles as well as constantly serving on the line. It was very hard for Souza to deal with that, so he had to go for big shots especially with his forehand. That was spectacular to watch at times and worked out pretty well. Yet, Andujar was just too solid. He only needed to save a break point in his second service game, while Souza was break point down in five of his ten service games, getting broken once in each set. Therefore Andujar won 6-4, 6-4. The Spaniard retired against Gerald Melzer in his match on Thursday.
In the following match Janko Tipsarevic from Serbia faced the Dominican tennis hero Victor Estrella Burgos. Tipsarevic did not participate in any tournament in 2014 and played his third tournament after his comeback in Munich, having had a 3-2 record going into this match. Estrella Burgos, who beat Dominic Thiem & Marin Cilic last week in Barcelona as well as Viktor Troicki in R1 here, was really on fire early in the match. He was hitting rocket forehands, top spin volley and even backhand winners and therefore got a quick 5-2 lead on serve. During the changeover the umpire let the courts remade which made the Dominican livid. He lost nine consecutive points but eventually served it out to win the first set 6-4. In the second set the two players dominated on serve. At 4-4 Estrella Burgos created a break opportunity, saved by a big serve of Tipsarevic. In the following tie-break the latter was playing extremly well whereas Estrella Burgos hit some unforced errors. Therefore Tipsarevic won the breaker 7-1.
In opposite to the previous set, this one started with three breaks, two of them by the Serbian. Both held their serves and especially Tipsarevic played much more aggressive than early on in the match, going for a backhand down the line very often. Thus he had the opportunity to serve for the match at 5-4. He started and ended the game with a double fault. It must be said that the other three points were high-quality. In the next game he had two break points to serve for the match once again. Estrella Burgos was able to save both of them with offensive tennis and win the game to go up 6-5. In the next game the Serbian had to hold his serve to stay in the match. In this stage VEB was hitting rocket forehands just like in the beginning of the match. Being match point down the first time Tipsarevic once again hit a great serve, the second time he hit an error. Hence Estrella Burgos won 6-4, 6-7(1), 7-5.
Estrella-Tipsarevic was a quality contest (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
In the quarter-final he will meet Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Spaniard easily dispatched Radek Stepanek by winning 6-0, 6-3.
In the last match on this court David Goffin fought past Simone Bolelli 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-1. All in all this match was a mixture of fantastic rallies paired with unforced errors. Anyway, it was quite spectacular. Neither player was troubled on serve in the first set. Then Bolelli won some of the mentioned great rallies to be 4-1 up on serve in the tie-break. Then the unforced errors by Bolelli appeared in addition to very consistent baseline play by Goffin. The latter won five straight points and eventually the set.
In the second set Bolelli seemed to have a letdown and got broken but immediately broke back. Goffin then had another break point opportunity in the third game but once again, both players won their service games to enforce another tie-break. Just like in the first set Bolelli was redlining his game in the beginning and got a 4-1 lead. This time he only lost the next two points and won the second breaker 7-4. In the last set David Goffin showed why he´s on the verge of breaking into the Top 20 again. His great movement and counter-punching lead to breaking Bolelli´s serve in the fourth game. In the following game the Italian had a break point to even it out but Goffin saved it by a well-timed net attack after a long rally. From then on Goffin was too good for Bolelli who kind of lost confidence. The Belgian broke again and served it out to love.
Q: Congratulations. As a spectator it was really great to watch your match, many nice rallies. What do you think about your performance?
DG: It was hard because the conditions are different than two days ago. It´s cooler today. The courts are slow and it was tough to move, so I did the maximum to win and I´m really happy because in January I lost against Simone in Sidney. He´s a great player and I think it´s a great performance to win against him today.
Q: You mentioned the match in Sidney. Today he caused a lot of trouble, too. What makes it so tough to play against him?
DG: Yeah, it´s because he has so much power. When he hits the ball, it´s tough for me to control it. His forehand is really strong. His serve, too. I had to serve really well and I was really solid. I waited for a good moment to break him in the last set. So it was a really solid match mentally.
Q: You had injury problems this year. At the Davis Cup you couldn´t play the first rubber. How do you feel now?
DG: Now I´m feeling better. I had some problems with my rip, just after Marseille. Then it always takes a few weeks to get better, but now I have no more pain.
Q: Good to hear! Last year you had a great run. You won two tournaments and many challenger titles, too. You were full of confidence. Today, you sometimes seemed more passive. Is it because you have less confidence now?
DG: No, I think I´m playing really good in practice but today it was tough conditions, tough to move. Simone is really aggressive so it´s tough to be aggressive for me. So maybe that´s why I was more passive today but I´m gonna try to be more aggressive next round.
Q: It changed a lot for you when you won all the titles in the last 6-8 months. Do you feel more pressure now, being almost a Top 20 player?
DG: Yeah, I´m #21 this week. I´m seeded now in tournaments like ATP 250s. Of course it´s pressure but it´s a good pressure. I have to play my game, even if I´m #21 or #40 or #50 I don´t care. I have to play my best tennis. If I´m playing well I think the result will come. I just have to focus on the way I play.
Q: What are your goals for 2015? Do you have specific goal or are you looking from tournament to tournament?
DG: No, I´m gonna try to win another tournament, maybe …
Q: This week?
DG: Why not? It should be good. Like I said, I´m really happy to be back on clay. I can win points at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so I´m gonna try to break the Top 20 for the first time. And then at the end of the season, I´ll see if I´m Top 20 or not.
Q: The last question: What do you think about your next opponent, Philipp Kohlschreiber?
DG: I played him twice, I think, and I won twice but it´s a different tournament. He´s playing at home. He´s always has a good level when he´s playing in Germany. I think he won the tournament twice. He loves the tournament, it will be a tough match for me.
As you can see in the quarterfinals David Goffin will face German No.1 Philipp Kohlschreiber. He beat Alexander Zverev 6-2, 6-4. In the post-match presser he was talking about the youngster´s game. Kohlschreiber was fully aware of Zverev´s potential. However, he also admitted that it was easy for him to dominate points due to Zverev´s court position far behind the baseline.
I also asked Kohlschreiber about David Goffin (and Simone Bolelli). He mentioned their encounter in Kitzbühl where the Belgian prevailed in straight sets. Goffin´s constant and well-placed shots as well as his great movement and returning ability made Kohlschreiber not really sound like he is keen on having to play against him.
Scores from Wednesday and Thursday
Wednesday (ATP Doubles) Peya/Soares d. Stakhovsky/Troicki 5-7 7-5 10-4
Paes/Stepanek d. Struff/Thiem 6-1 6-7 10-5
Murray/Rojer d. Klaasen/Rosol 7-5 6-2
Junaid/Shamasdin d. Fleming/Marray 6-3 2-6 16-14
Mayer/Moser d. Becker/Meffert 6-3 6-2
Begemann/Knowle d. Cermak/Vesely 7-6 6-4
Alex Zverev/Mischa Zverev d. Brown/Petzschner 6-4 6-4
Jamie Murray/Peers d. Estrella/Souza 6-3 6-2
Thursday Murray d. Mischa Zverev 6-2 6-2
Rosol d. Stakhovsky 7-5 6-2
Thiem d. Fognini 6-3 6-0
Gerald Melzer d. Andujar 4-1 ret.
Peya/Soares d. Paes/Stepanek 6-2 6-1
Andy Murray/Rojer d. Junaid/Shamasdin 6-2 6-2
Begemann/Knowle d. Mayer/Moser 6-0 6-4
Zverev/Zverev d. Jamie Murray/Peers 3-6 6-3 10-8
Monfils, Klizan Withdrawals Mar Exciting Monday of Action at 2015 @bmwopenbyfwuag Marc Imperatori for Tennis Atlantic
Zverev had too much variety for Gombos (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
The third day of the BMW Open in Munich featured some bad news for the tournament organizers and fans. Title defender Martin Klizan and, just like in 2014, Gael Monfils had to withdraw. However, the rest of the day included good matches, great weather and lots of action on the practice courts.
First up, the final qualifying round was played. On center court Dustin Brown defeated his countryman Nils Langer in a close battle 6-3 4-6 7-6(7). Langer was 6-4 up in the decisive tie-break. When Langer had match point on serve, a bad bounce led to a mishit. Brown then got another mini-break to get a 7-6 lead before he double-faulted on match point. Yet he was able to close this match out when Langer missed a forehand at 7-8. In the post-match interview Brown admitted that he felt nervous due to suffering close losses in recent weeks.
The next match on CC was Mischa Zverev from Germany against the Norbert Gombos from Slovakia. This match really gave you some club tennis feeling. One player was mostly pushing (Zverev) and by pushing I really mean just putting the ball in play without great pace, spin or angle. And the other one (Gombos) went for very big shots but missed way too many. In the first set Gombos hit 8 Double Faults, all in all it was 13 (fitting that he ended the match with one). Some of the second serves were 3-4 meters wide. The final score was 7-6 6-2 in Zverev´s favour. He´s going to play against another German, Jan-Lennard Struff, in his R1 match tomorrow.
On court 1 Radek Stepanek faced Bastian Trinker from Austria. The match included some great points by both players but Trinker´s lack of experience against players of Stepanek´s calibre was obvious. With his ability to deal with fast and slow balls and his constant attempt to put his opponent under pressure, Stepanek was a really bad match-up for the Austrian. Stepanek won 6-2 6-2 and will face Farrukh Dustov from Uzbekistan in R1. Trinker on the other hand benefited from the late withdrawals. Due to getting a lucky loser spot he´ll face Fabio Fognini in R1. Both matches will be played tomorrow.
Trinker had an unorthodox return position against Steps (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
The next match on this court included two lucky ones: Mikhail Ledovskikh and Gerald Melzer. The latter won 6-3 3-6 7-6(4). Ledovskikh got lucky by receiving a lucky loser spot to face Stakhovsky in R1 while Melzer got lucky by getting drawn in Monfils´ spot which means he got a bye in R1 and automatically qualified for R2.
In the meantime there was also a press conference with highest-ranked German Philipp Kohlschreiber. He was talking about his R1 opponent Jiri Vesely who´s in great shape but could also be tired, and his form, which is good since Indian Wells according to him. Additionally topics discussed by Peppo was the threat of Andy Murray, who is a great addition to the tournament, the tournament itself, which is very important to him. It was the first one he ever played and where he claimed his first ATP title, and about feeling pressure of defending points on clay in the next weeks. Kohlschreiber told that he used to feel lots of pressure when he was younger. Nowadays, he is more relaxed and likes to know that he played well at certain tournaments or seasons in the past.
Kohlschreiber spoke with the press today (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
Afterwards the first main draw matches were played on Centre Court. First, two players who are both rising in the rankings faced off: Victor Estrella Burgos and Viktor Troicki. In the first set there were no breaks of serve, therefore the set was decided in a tie-break. A forehand unforced Error by Troicki gave Estrella Burgos a decisive mini-break to win the set. In the second set both players were very good on serve once again. At 3-3 a commercial side fence was flickering which lead to a 10 minutes break.
Estrella Burgos and Troicki hod to take a break (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
At 5-4* Troicki served to stay in the match. Hitting two unforced errors and a double fault made him go down 15-40. The first match point was saved by great attacking tennis before he once again hit an unforced error so the Dominican won 7-6 6-4.
During the whole match it was interesting to see how Troicki, who is a very good counter-puncher, had troubles to create his own pace after Estrella´s low slices. Trying this (making Troicki hit slower balls) gave him enough time to run around his backhand to take advantage of his extra-ordinary forehand. That tactic worked pretty well for him and was, in my opinion, the main reason he won the match.
Estrella upset Troicki (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
The last match of the day was a battle of young (Alexander Zverev) against old (Benjamin Becker). In the first set Becker was playing very aggressive. Zverev couldn´t quite deal with that hence Becker clinched the first set 6-4. In the next set things were completely different. It was a mixture of Zverev getting a better read on Becker´s game and Becker just playing worse (hitting many unforced errors). After 1-1 Zverev won 5 straight games to make it 6-1. After an early break by Zverev, Becker began to slightly up his level again until Zverev broke again in the seventh game of the set. Finally, Zverev won the match 4-6, 6-1, 6-2. His R2 opponent will be either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Jiri Vesely.
Zverev was strong from the back of the court against Becker (photo credit: Marc Imperatori)
Round 1 results:
Victor Estrella Burgos def. Viktor Troicki 7-6(4) 6-4
(WC)Alexander Zverev def. Benjamin Becker 4-6 6-1 6-2
Tomorrow the ten remaining R1 matches as well as well as some doubles matches (including Andy Murray/Rojer) are scheduled. With Mayer vs. Rosol, Kohlschreiber vs. Vesely and Tipsarevic vs. Tomic there are quite some interesting matches to follow.
2015 New Delhi, Wroclaw and Morelos Challenger Recaps Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
New Delhi
Top seed James Duckworth seems to be having a case of the top 100 jitters. After a great start on the year, reaching the quarterfinal of Brisbane and the second round at the Australian Open (which saw him rise to #108 in the rankings), he suffered his third bad week in a row here in New Delhi. Losing in the second round to wild card Sanam Singh, it’s clear that change is needed quickly after failing to win back to back Challenger matches in three consecutive tournaments. #5 seed and defending champion Somdev Devvarman took advantage, taking out Singh in the quarterfinal, 4-6 6-1 6-3. He had an early lucky break already, seeing his first round opponent Antonio Veic retire while Veic was leading by a set.
The second section fell apart as well seed wise, with #3 Yuichi Sugita and #8 Alex Bolt both losing in the first round. Kimmer Coppejans was responsible for the latter’s demise and he kept up the good work, not dropping a set on his way to the semi-final. There Devvarman was way too strong, however, taking the Belgian out 6-3 6-1. In the bottom half second seed Alexander Kudryavtsev lost in the first round, but that wasn’t an upset given his opponent, Yuki Bhambri. Bhambri is severely underranked because of injury struggles and will find himself back in the top 200 very soon.
His run here will help, as he reached the semi-final without dropping a set and dispatching of #4 seed Ruben Bemelmans there in three sets, 4-6 6-3 7-5. The final between Devvarman and Bhambri was almost a carbon copy of their first round match less than a month ago in Hong Kong. There Devvarman prevailed 2-6 6-4 6-3, and here it ended 3-6 6-4 6-0. Given Devvarman was the defending champion, it does nothing for his ranking, even dropping him two spots to #155. Bhambri makes a big jump of 117 spots to #297.
Wroclaw
The tournament started with a hilarious moment between top seed Ricardas Berankis and Polish wild card Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz won a point playing an amazing dive volley, after which Berankis accidentally hit him in the face. Despite it being clearly unintentional, Berankis still received a warning from the umpire.
#5 seed Matthias Bachinger lost 6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 in the first round to Jesse Huta Galung, despite the Dutchman needing eight match points, which included this huge miss:
Huta Galung couldn’t keep up the good work, losing in the second round to Mirza Basic. Basic, on the other hand, went on a great run, going all the way to the semi-final, where he took out Berankis in straight sets, 7-6(4) 7-5. #4 seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov lost in a first round marathon to Jan Mertl, 6-7(3) 7-6(7) 7-6(1). In the bottom half, second seed Steve Darcis had to go deep in order to see off Michal Przysiezny in the first round, 7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(5). Darcis made it to the semi-final, where he faced #3 seed Farrukh Dustov, who took out #7 seed Michael Berrer 7-5 6-4 in the previous round.
Dustov surprisingly managed to see off Darcis as well, beating him 6-3 3-6 7-5 for a place in the final. There Basic was no match for him either, with the final ending 6-3 6-4 in Dustov’s favor. It was a monumental victory for Dustov, as his fourth Challenger title meant that he entered the top 100 for the first time in his career, rising twenty spots to #98. Basic finds himself at a career high ranking as well, cracking the top 200 at exactly #200, an improvement of seventy-seven.
Morelos
I predicted top seed Victor Estrella Burgos to lose in a quarterfinal encounter with Matteo Viola, but that scenario quickly disappeared as Viola lost in the second round. However, my initial hunch of Estrella struggling was shown to be right, as he needed three sets in all of his first three match to advance to the semi-final. This was much to the displeasure of Nicolas Barrientos, who fell in a third set tiebreak in the second round.
#4 seed Jimmy Wang fell in the first round to Giovanni Lapentti under suspicious circumstances, raising the question if this was another fixed match, following Molchanov in Dallas earlier this year. Wang started as the 1.40 favorite, but Lapentti suddenly was the overwhelming favorite with the first set far from decided and no signs of injury from Wang. This wasn’t the first time for Wang, as a similar suspicious pattern surrounded his match against Jarmere Jenkins at the Maui Challenger last year.
Gerald Melzer was the other semi-finalist from the top half, but Estrella Burgos convincingly took care of him there, 6-4 6-2. In the bottom half, #7 seed Austin Krajicek disappointed after his great quarterfinal run at Memphis, pushing world #5 Kei Nishikori to three sets. Here he lost to #288 Jason Jung in the first round, 5-7 6-3 6-4. Jung went on to lose to #3 seed Damir Dzumhur in the quarterfinal, 6-4 6-1. Alejandro Falla struggled immensely with wild card Daniel Garza in the second round, scraping by in three sets, 4-6 6-4 6-4. In the quarterfinal #5 seed Adrian Menendez-Maceiras took him out 7-5 6-3. Menendez-Maceiras fell in the semi-final to Dzumhur after an epic battle, 6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(5).
However, Estrella Burgos was completely warmed up after struggling in the early stages and won the final 7-5 6-4. Another of many special moments for Estrella Burgos as of late, as it meant his entry into the top 50 (#48). At 34, Estrella Burgos becomes the second oldest player in the open era to crack the top 50 for the first time. Dzumhur reached a milestone as well, cracking the top 100 for the first time at #87.
2015 ATP Acapulco, Dubai, and Buenos Aires Preview/Prediction Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
A pair of 500 series events on hard courts this week are the highlight of the ATP calendar, as most stars will take to the courts in Mexico or Dubai, meanwhile, the ATP Golden Swing on clay concludes in Buenos Aires, with those who prefer the dirt taking their talents to Argentina for the 250 level event.
ATP Acapulco
2015 ATP Acapulco Preview
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500*
Acapulco, Mexico
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $1,414,550
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Kei Nishikori (5)
2: David Ferrer (9)
3: Grigor Dimitrov (11)
4: Kevin Anderson (15)
The seed cutoff is 40 (Benjamin Becker), and 4 of the top 20 are participating in this 500 level event this week.
Estrella is in tremendous form at the moment, he won the Morelos challenger on hard courts in Mexico, after winning his maiden ATP title in Quito. Lu, the steady veteran baseliner, reached the quarters in Delray, with an upset win over Kevin Anderson. I have Estrella winning this matchup given how well the veteran is playing right now, but it could go either way.
Bernard Tomic vs. Adrian Mannarino
Both players come off semifinals in Delray, Tomic beat Viktor Troicki en route later losing to Donald Young, while Mannarino beat Lu, and also Denis Kudla, before falling to eventual champion Ivo Karlovic. Tomic should be favored as he’s in better recent form and has won consecutive matches in every tournament he’s played this season (12-5 ATP record in 2015), expect a quality contest all the same though.
Top Half:
Kei Nishikori opens with a qualifier, and then the Estrella/Lu winner, Estrella is a dangerous opponent right now, but the top 5, and normally consistent Nishikori, should reach the quarterfinals with Sam Groth/Alex Dolgopolov his most likely opponent. The winner of Groth/Dolgopolov, will face Robin Haase or Rio semifinalist Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 2. Dolgo was a quarterfinalist in Delray, and I give him a slight edge to beat Groth, and then Haase to reach the quarters here. Nishikori, who won the title in Memphis, and has made quarterfinals or better at every tournament this season (10-2 ATP record), is 2-0 in the h2h against Dolgo, with both wins coming on hard court, so I favor Asia’s top player over the unpredictable Dolgopolov for a spot in the semifinals.
Kevin Anderson, a finalist last year, will open with fellow big server Dustin Brown. Though Anderson lost early in Delray, he was a finalist in Memphis, and I have him getting through Brown, and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters. Johnson hasn’t lost in the opening round of any tournament this year (9-5 ATP record including consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Memphis). Johnson will open with Ivan Dodig, who has been thus far unable to return to his previous top 40 form this year. Anderson already has 2 wins against Johnson this year without dropping a set in Memphis and Auckland, and that’s why he’s the quarterfinal favorite.
Viktor Troicki, who lost to Tomic in Delray, has a reasonable chance at another quarterfinal showing, he opens with Mexican wild card Daniel Garza, who has some of the worst physical conditioning I’ve ever seen in a professional tennis player. After that, Troicki is likely to face Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo is 2-0 against Troicki, including a hard court win, but he retired in his last match in Rio, and given the surface, with Troicki already having an ATP title, and a quarterfinal on his resume this year, the Serbian should be favored. Troicki beat Anderson once three and a half years ago in Washington, and that match could go either way but with Anderson having previous success here, I have him into the semifinals over Troicki.
Rio champion David Ferrer opens with Igor Sijsling, who continues to struggle having lost three straight, even if Ferrer is a bit worn down, he only has one loss on the season, with two ATP titles (Doha and Rio), and with that in mind he should roll past Sijsling and then Marinko Matosevic or Marcel Granollers to reach the quarters. Matosevic has struggled this year (2-5 ATP record), while Granollers has a lone good showing this year in Zagreb (semifinals) I have Ferrer over Granollers in my bracket. Ferrer is 3-1 on hard courts against him, though Granollers won their last meeting in Tokyo.
The Tomic/Mannarino winner is a possible quarterfinal opponent for Ferrer, but watch out for 8 seed Benjamin Becker as well. Becker, who comes off a round 1 loss in Memphis, and is 2-4 on the year, opens with Tobias Kamke, a fellow German. Becker is 3-0 against Tomic, though they have never met on a hard court surface, I personally have Tomic into the quarters against Ferrer in my own bracket. Ferrer is 2-0 against Tomic, with both meetings on hard courts, and he has never dropped a set against the Aussie, still fatigue may be a factor, giving Tomic a shot at the semis.. In my own bracket I’m going with Ferrer, who has had an under the radar solid season already and isn’t presently showing signs of decline. Ferrer was only pushed to 3 sets once last week in Rio.
Defending champ Grigor Dimitrov has failed to impress this year, the Bulgarian number one opens with Filip Krajinovic in round 1, he should get through that, but Donald Young should give him a round 2 test, unless fatigue is a factor. Young, a finalist in Delray, and semifinalist in Memphis, opens with a qualifier, and he has two previous hard court wins against Dimitrov, but Dimitrov has also won twice on hard courts, with three of their four hard court meetings going 3 sets. Dimitrov hasn’t played like a top 10 player thus far but given his previous success here, and Young’s fatigue, I have Dimitrov into the quarterfinals.
Ivo Karlovic, the Delray champion, has an interesting draw, in theory he should comfortably reach the quarterfinals, given his opponents, Teymuraz Gabashvili and Dusan Lajovic or a qualifier, are not exactly hard court superstars, but at his age, one has to wonder if he will be fatigued, creating an opening for a qualifier, or one of those other two players to reach the quarterfinals. I don’t trust Karlovic’s fitness and thus I have Gabashvili through, and also I have him over Lajovic, who may fall to a qualifier, to reach the quarterfinals. Gabashvili has lost three straight, while Lajovic has lost two straight and he’s normally poor on hard courts. All the same Dimitrov has a relatively easy draw for a 500 level event, and should ease his way into the semifinals.
Viktor Troicki is a possible semifinalist this week, but I give Tomic the official designation because he’s been consistent this year, which is a surprising thing to say, given he used to not be, and if Ferrer is fatigued, he has a shot to score a top 10 win and get himself to the semis, where Dimitrov, a beatable opponent, is most likely to await. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Tomic in the h2h, but Tomic has had a good season and he seems due to reach a final, though I’m not predicting it, the possibility is there.
Predictions
Semis: Nishikori d. Anderson
Dimitrov d. Ferrer
Nishikori just beat Anderson in Memphis, and should do so again, meanwhile, Dimitrov is 0-2 against Ferrer on an outdoor hard court but given the fatigue factor, I have Dimitrov regaining form and reaching the final this week thanks to a lucky draw.
Final: Nishikori d. Dimitrov
Nishikori is 2-0, with both wins coming on hard courts, against Dimitrov, given his solid season, he should win his second ATP title of the year in Acapulco as the top seed.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 23-February 28, 2015
Prize Money: $2,082,605
Top 4 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Roger Federer (2)
3: Andy Murray (4)
4: Tomas Berdych (8)
The seed cutoff is 20 (David Goffin), as Dubai has a very top heavy field, with 4 of the top 10, and 8 of the top 20 participating.
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Vasek Pospisil
Djokovic beat Pospisil in their only meeting, a competitive contest last year in Beijing, and the Australian Open champion should once again advance to round 2 at a tournament he has won four times prior, however the young Canadian has game and this isn’t the easiest of round 1 matchups for the world number 1, Pospisil is 2-2 over his last four, and may be able to at least push the sets deep here.
Simone Bolelli vs. (Q)Lucas Pouille
One of the numerous matchups this week slated between in-form players, Bolelli has two ATP quarterfinals on his resume this year, most recently he reached the quarters in Marseille by upsetting top 10 player Milos Raonic in 3 sets. Pouille has risen to the occasion this year as well, the young Frenchman qualified with a pair of wins, and he was also a semifinalist in Auckland this year. Bolelli should be favored given his experience, and good recent form, but look for Pouille to test him, in a match that could go either way.
Baghdatis is 2-0 against Goffin, and most recently crushed him at the Australian Open, in a poor showing for the Belgian. Baghdatis has gotten his 2015 off to a strong start with a challenger final, a a third round showing in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Zagreb. Goffin meanwhile has not played as well this season, compared to last, he hasn’t posted better than a quarterfinal, and he’s just 2-4 over his last six matches, most recently he retired in Marseille against Dominic Thiem. With that in mind, though Goffin is much higher ranked, look for Baghdatis to move to 3-0 in the h2h and notch an upset to reach round 2.
Andreas Seppi vs. Richard Gasquet
Two players who have started the season in good form, Seppi has an ATP final (Zagreb), an ATP semifinal (Doha), and a second week appearance at the Australian Open on his resume thus far, resulting in an overall 11-5 ATP record this year, while Gasquet is 7-2 with a title in Montpellier on his resume. The shotmaking, tactically agile veterans have met five times previously, most recently back in 2012, and Gasquet is 4-1 in those meetings, with his lone loss coming on clay. Gasquet should be favored here but Seppi cannot be counted out, he’s improved his game considerably it seems this season, compared to previous seasons, and this match should at minimum not be a routine affair.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This should be quite a high quality contest, Verdasco, who won the last hard court meeting between these Spaniards in 2012 is a slight favorite. He’s had a somewhat average season thus far with a 6-4 ATP record. Dasco took his talents to the golden swing for a couple of tournaments and is now back on hard courts while GGL has been off to a hot start in 2015 sticking to the hard courts. Garcia-Lopez won Zagreb, and already has 10 wins on the season (contrasted with 4 losses, two of which came at the racquet of top 10 player Stan Wawrinka in competitive contests). I personally have GGL winning this one, his play has been quite impressive thus far, and he is outperforming Verdasco right now.
Djokovic should be able to roll to the semifinals here, after Pospisil, Andrey Golubev or qualifier Fabrice Martin await, and then it should be Feliciano Lopez in the quarters. Lopez has generally lived up to his high ranking thus far this season (6-3 on the year), and he should defeat James Ward and Marsel Ilhan or Alex Zverev, but I give him little chance against Novak who he is 0-5 in his career against. The only time he took a set was in their Dubai 2011 meeting. On an interesting note about Martin-Golubev, Martin broke a seven match losing streak dating back to last season to qualify and he beat Borna Coric notably in those qualies, while Golubev is just 1-5 this season with four straight losses. Perhaps the recent boost to Martin’s confidence will get him through to round 2. Zverev should be the one to face Lopez, as he just beat Ilhan in Marseille qualifying a week prior.
Tomas Berdych, who has been solid this season with two ATP finals (Doha and Rotterdam), and of course that semifinal at the Australian Open on his resume already, opens with Jeremy Chardy, a quarterfinalist in Marseille. Berdych is 2-0 against Chardy, and does what the Frenchman is best at, better than he does, so I have little doubt it will be Berdych, who has made two consecutive finals here into round 2 against the Bolelli/Pouille winner. That should be a quality contest, and if Bolelli his Berdych’s round 2 opponent, the Italian has beaten the Czech twice before (2-3 h2h), so he may be able to do some damage, but once again the confidence pick should be Berdych as a quarterfinalist at least in Dubai.
Look for Berdych to face Sergiy Stakhovsky in that quarterfinal, the Ukrainian is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, he opens with Lukas Rosol, who he just dispatched in Marseille (the Czech is just 1-7 over his last 8 matches dating back to last season), and then will face Denis Istomin or Ernests Gulbis. Both players are in awful form, Istomin is just 2-6 on the year, with three straight losses, while Gulbis is yet to win a match this season (0-4), with no sets won in his previous two losses against Dominic Thiem and Jeremy Chardy. Given Gulbis is the moodier player compared to Istomin, I have Istomin through, and then Stako to take him out comfortably. Stako has just one opening round loss this year, and he made the quarters in Rotterdam and the semis in Marseille consecutively, notably knocking off Stan Wawrinka in Marseille. Stako is 2-2 on a hard court against Istomin, but form favors him strongly. Given Berdych has a higher ranking, more accomplishments, a 3-0 h2h, and a better skillset than Stako, look for a Djokovic vs. Berdych semifinal this week.
Bottom Half:
Since 2009, only Djokovic, and Roger Federer, a six time Dubai champion, and the defending champion, have won the title here in the UAE. Federer will open his quest to repeat as champion against struggling veteran Mikhail Youzhny, who is a shell of his old self. Federer is an incredible 16-0 against the Russian over his career, and Youzhny is just 2-5 over his last seven matches dating back to last year. Federer could be tested a bit more against the Garcia-Lopez/Verdasco winner. If it’s GGL, as I have in my bracket, Federer is 3-0 against him, and should be able to make it 4-0 in reaching the quarterfinals. Federer is 5-0 against Verdasco if that is his opponent, and would make it 6-0.
Look for Seppi/Gasquet in the quarters for Federer, Roberto Bautista Agut is also an option here. RBA opens with Dominic Thiem, who he has already beaten twice this season, including last week in Marseille where he reached the semis. This is a difficult section to predict, RBA is 1-0 against both Seppi and Gasquet, but I feel like both of those players are outperforming the Spaniard right now and thusly I have Gasquet in the quarterfinals of my own bracket, with any of those 3 players having a case to make it that far. Gasquet has never beaten Federer on a hard court (0-7 including a Dubai loss) so Fed should reach the semis. If Seppi is his quarterfinal opponent, that would of course be a reprisal of the Italian’s shocking victory in Melbourne, but even still I would pick Federer to get his revenge and reach the semis.
Andy Murray, a one time finalist in Dubai who has played well thus far this season, opens with Gilles Muller, another in-form unseeded player to watch. Murray is 1-0 against Muller who reached the second week in Melbourne, and has an ATP semi and two ATP quarterfinals already on his resume this year. Murray, the AO finalist, most recently made the quarters in Rotterdam where he was upset by Gilles Simon. After Muller tests Murray, expect him to also take out Joao Sousa, who faces wild card James McGee in the first round. The journeyman McGee is an odd wild card selection, but all the same Murray is 4-0 against Sousa including a win this year at the Australian Open. Sousa has lost three straight matches though he has an ATP semifinal on his resume this year (Montpellier).
Murray could face Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters, after Goffin, it would be Malek Jaziri or Philipp Kohlschreiber for him in round 2. Jaziri tends to peak for these events in the Arab world but after a good showing at the Australian Open he’s in terrible form with three straight losses, most recently in Delray at the hands of Bernard Tomic. Kohlschreiber has lost two straight and is just 2-5 on the season, but even still I favor him over Jaziri. That said Baghdatis is playing much better than Kohli right now and has a 2-0 h2h record on hard courts, pointing to the Cypriot to reach the quarters.The aggressive Baghdatis has two previous hard court wins against Murray, who has won their last two hard court meetings for a 2-2 overall hard court h2h, and they almost always tend to play competitive contests, especially on fast surfaces, but Murray is likely to have more left in the tank these days and thus I have him into the semifinals.
The Cypriot appears to be motivated, fitter, and striking the ball much better in 2015, having experienced a bit of a career resurgence as of late when many thought he was near retirement. In my mind he’s the favorite to at minimum reach the quarterfinals, and Murray is beatable, as he’s proven before, so semis are a possible outcome for him this week, which would be remarkable given he entered this top heavy, 500 level event as a wild card.
Predictions
Semis: Djokovic d. Berdych
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic has never lost to Berdych on a hard court, in a ton of meetings, including the 2013 Dubai final, and with that in mind, I don’t see any reason to pick against a Djokovic vs. Federer Dubai final this week given prior history and present form.
Federer has won three straight hard court meetings against Murray and he tends to play exceptionally well in Dubai, giving him the slight edge to reach the final this week.
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
Federer won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai, and their last Dubai meeting in 3 sets last year, but Djokovic played tremendous in Melbourne, and I still have to pick him on an outdoor hard court almost every time. This matchup could go either way, both players know each other well, and know how to beat the other, so it’s a really difficult prediction all the same, with my gut favoring the world number 1.
Argentina Open presented by Buenos Aires Ciudad
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 23-March 1, 2015
Prize Money: $500,550
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (3)
2: Tommy Robredo (18)
3: Pablo Cuevas (23)
4: Fabio Fognini (28)
For a 250 event, with a pair of 500s also on the calendar the same week, Buenos Aires is actually quite solid, with Nadal headlining and a host of clay courters joining him on the undercard. Everyone in the field this week has taken part in one or more previous Golden Swing events (Quito, Sao Paulo or Rio)
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Pablo Andujar vs. Nicolas Almagro
Andujar is a seed, but Almagro is 3-0 in the h2h, including 2-0 on clay. Almagro has gone 2-2 on the Golden swing thus far with both of his losses coming in three setters against Pablo Cuevas. Andujar is 1-2, and isn’t playing that well right now, with that in mind the 2011 BA champ Almagro should advance to round 2 with a win in this all-Spanish encounter.
Top Half:
Rafael Nadal, a semifinalist in Rio, will face Albert Montanes or a qualifier in round 1. Nadal is 5-0 against Montanes with all meetings coming on clay, and his veteran Spanish counterpart has never taken a set against him. Next for Nadal is likely to be the winner of Federico Delbonis vs. Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci, who just lost to Nadal in Rio, will face Paolo Lorenzi in round 1. The h2h is 1-1 and both players have lost three straight matches, but I give Bellucci, the more skilled player, the slighest of edges in that one. Delbonis has Pablo Carreno Busta in round 1, he lost an incredible quarterfinal match against Fabio Fognini in Rio, saving more than a half dozen match points before falling in a third set tiebreak. Before that, Delbonis was struggling, and likewise PCB has been up and down, he beat Carlos Berlocq, before losing to Nadal in Rio. I have Delbonis as a quarterfinalist yet again this week, given the home soil advantage, and then Nadal should take him out to reach the semis. The h2h between Delbonis and Bellucci is 3-2 in favor of Delbonis with all meetings coming on clay, and all of them being close encounters. Nadal is 1-0 against Delbonis with that win coming on clay in 2013.
Rio finalist Fabio Fognini, who found some of his best form in months to reach the final there, notably upsetting Nadal, will open with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Carlos Berlocq. I have Fognini beating Berlocq in round 2, after Berlocq wins the all Argentina round 1 battle. Fognini had started the season just 1-3, but as mentioned he put much more effort into his tennis in Rio, and though unpredictable, has be favored to reach the quarterfinals, though fatigue may factor in.
Jiri Vesely, the 6 seed, has a nice chance at a run this week, he opens with Blaz Rola, who has just two wins on the season (though on of them came in an upset of Leo Mayer last week in Rio), and then would face a qualifier in round 2. Vesely is 0-3 since winning the Auckland title, but he pushed Fognini to 3 sets in Rio, and his other golden swing loss was to Pablo Cuevas, who ended up taking the title in Sao Paulo, both of those losses coming in 3 sets. Vesely, though mentally fragile, is playing better than recent results would suggest, and presuming his fitness is ok, I actually have him winning that rematch with Fognini in the quarters. It was a low quality, and up and down encounter when they played last week in Rio, and by this point, Fognini should be fatigued from all the tennis he’s had to play over the past week and a half, with that in mind, the advantage swings to Vesely to reach the semis. Don’t count a qualifier out here either.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo, the 2009 champion, will face Jarkko Nieminen or Renzo Olivo, a wild card, in round 2. The veteran Nieminen isn’t that impressive on clay right now, while Olivo is actually 8-2 over his last 10 matches, a mix of Quito qualies, and the Santo Domingo challenger. With a retirement, and a loss to eventual champ Victor Estrella, the only two losses Olivo has had in weeks, I have him notching an upset on home soil to setup a meeting with Robredo. Olivo shockingly upset Robredo in Bastad last year on clay, and Robredo has been in poor form all season, with just a 1-2 record on the year, with a retirement, and a loss to the much lower ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer in Rio. With that in mind, I’m backing Olivo to reach the quarterfinals with a pair of upsets over ATP veterans, on home soil in BA.
Olivo/Robredo are most likely to meet the Andujar/Almagro winner in the quarters, I presume Almagro will be able to defeat wild card Horacio Zeballos or Albert Ramos in round 2. Ramos should beat Zeballos, he’s 1-2 on the Golden Swing thus far, but Almagro is the most talented player of the bunch and should beat Olivo in the quarters to reach the semis in what would be a good week for him.
Pablo Cuevas opens with Guido Andreozzi or a qualifier, Andreozzi, a wild card, has been plying his trade on hard courts, rather than clay this year, and the qualifier will have a good chance, all the same Cuevas, the Sao Paulo champ, and a quarterfinalist in Rio who pushed Nadal to 3 sets, should have no trouble reaching the quarters given his good form. In another all-Argentine battle, Juan Monaco (2-1 clay court h2h) should have enough ability to take out Maximo Gonzalez, who hasn’t won an ATP main draw match in a while. Monaco, a Rio quarterfinalist should face the top ranked Argentine Leo Mayer in round 2. Mayer retired in his last match and is just 1-2 on the Golden Swing, but I still see him beating the veteran French journeyman Stephane Robert, who hasn’t played on clay since the French Open last year. Monaco and Mayer have never met on clay, but with Monaco in slightly better form, I have Pico into the quarters, and then Cuevas beating him for a spot in the semis. Monaco is 5-0 on clay against Cuevas, but they haven’t played since 2011, and Cuevas has been a far superior player as of late.
The unseeded Nicolas Almagro is also a dark horse, but the home player Olivo could have the most eye catching week in Buenos Aires. As mentioned if the in-form wild card can score upset wins over Nieminen, and Robredo, he would be in the quarters, and should be find a way to beat Almagro or another player, he would find himself in his first ever ATP semifinal this week, which I’m sure the home crowd would appreciate.
Predictions
Semis: Nadal d. Vesely
Cuevas d. Almagro
Even with Nadal not playing top 5 quality tennis right now, I don’t see anyone in the field being able to take him out before the final, meanwhile Cuevas has dominated Almagro as of late, and should also be able to battle his way to the final this week
Final: Nadal d. Cuevas
He didn’t win Rio, but you still have to pick Nadal as the champion for almost every clay court tournament in which he is a participant. The king of clay has struggled thus far this season, but you have to feel failure to reach a final yet this year, will further motivate him to cap off the Golden Swing with good vibes, and an ATP title. Nadal just beat my favored finalist Cuevas last week in Rio in 3 sets, and his level should be good enough to take this 250 title as the top seed.
The legend of Victor Estrella continues to grow, the 34 old won his maiden ATP title in Quito, becoming the first Dominican player to capture an ATP title. Estrella is set to soar past his previous career high ranking of 65 after winning a thrilling three setter with top seed, and top 15 player Feliciano Lopez 6-2 6-7 7-6. Estrella was up a break in the third set, and surrendered it, but he held his serve and got the match to a tiebreak, where he seized a crucial advantage over the Spaniard and took it 7-5. Estrella over the past 15 or so months has been the most inspiring story in tennis, and is a testament to hard work and never giving up on your dreams. He has received little support and considered dropping tennis due to financial difficulties given the lack of support from his undeveloped federation. He was the definition of journeyman until 11 months ago when he broke into the top 100 for the first time. Since them, he’s established himself at the ATP level and also done well in his first Slam main draws.
Estrella began his run this week with a win over Andre Ghem, after that he beat Renzo Olivo, and upset 4 seed Martin Klizan to reach the semis, all without dropping a set. In the semis, he held on against Bellucci, who gave the match away in straights. ATP 250 events often receive criticism for field quality, and so much of the attention in the tennis world gets focused on the top 10 and the Masters and Slam level events, but if you ask me, Estrella and his story are what pro tennis is all about, he’s certainly not the most physically gifted or technically skilled player on tour, but with heart, and drive, he has gotten himself this far on tour, and the run doesn’t appear to be likely to end anytime soon. This is a sport where the grittiest, most dedicated players can post good results, and this was a magical week for Victor Estrella.
As for the top seed Lopez, he remains a Spaniard without a clay court title, Feli beat Alejandro Gonzalez in straights, Dusan Lajovic in 3 sets, from a set down and staring triple break point in the face in set 2, and Fernando Verdasco in a pair of tiebreaks, as Verdasco was unable to convert his chances in that match and mentally collapsed under pressure. His slice and serve was generally effective this week en route to the final.
Estrella pulled double duty in Quito this week, as he and his partner Joao Souza reached the doubles final, however it was Germans Gero Kretschmer and Alexander Satschko that took the doubles title in the end.
Richard Gasquet claimed his third career Montpellier title thanks to a retirement from an ill Jerzy Janowicz. Janowicz would have been bidding for his maiden ATP title but he simply wasn’t physically able to contest this match, retiring after 3 games. Gasquet staved off Lucas Poulle in straights, avoiding a third set against the young gun, and then beat Denis Istomin and Gael Monfils to reach the final. Monfils was also struggling with an undisclosed illness.
Janowicz had a great week, in fact already showing considerable improvements to his game after a dismal 2014. The Polish number one saved six match points against Dustin Brown to advance in 3 sets, and then also beat Benoit Paire in 3 sets to reach the quarters. Janowicz showed clutch play and steady improvement as he beat Gilles Simon in straights and Joao Sousa in 3 sets, with a third set breadstick in his final competitive match, and it’s a shame the final never took place.
Artem Sitak and Marcus Daniell beat Dominic Inglot and Florin Mergea, the top seeds, to win the doubles title, Sitak and Daniell are the first New Zealand pairing to win an ATP doubles title in decades.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez won his second career indoor hard court title in Zagreb, upsetting the favored, and in form Andreas Seppi, who has been off to a hot start in 2015. GGL and Seppi were neck and neck in the first set, and GGL clawed back a minibreak to take the first set, in the second, it was likewise close, but Seppi played a poor service game at 3-4 to get broken, and GGL served the match out after that for a 7-6 6-3 victory. It was close but GGL had fewer errors in his game and won the longer rallies, as he continues to post up and down results with his diverse game.
Garcia-Lopez demolished Damir Dzumhur in round 2, then beat Viktor Troicki in a close 3 set contest, and fellow veteran Marcos Baghdatis in the semifinals 4 and 4. Baghdatis had previously saved a match point to defeat Ivo Karlovic in round 2, and was perhaps fatigued from having three previous three set wins (over Toni Androic, Mikhail Youzhny and Karlovic) to reach the semifinals.
Seppi didn’t have any easy matches this week, he needed 3 sets against Robin Haase, James Ward, and Ricardas Berankis, that match decided in a tight third set tiebreak, and then he won a first set breaker and went on to breadstick Marcel Granollers for a straight set win in the semifinals. Outside of Berankis, and perhaps Igor Sijsling, all of the quarterfinalists in Zagreb this week were veteran players (Baghdatis, Youzhny, GGL, Troicki, Seppi, Granollers). Seppi already has an ATP final, an ATP semi (Doha) and the second week of a Slam (the AO) on his resume and it’s just now the second week of February as he has been on a tear as of late.
Home fans in Croatia had something to cheer about as Marin Draganja, a Croat, along with his partner Henri Kontinen of Finland beat Fabrice Martin and Purav Raja to capture the Zagreb doubles title. Croatian legends Ivan Ljubicic and Goran Ivanisevic were on hand to celebrate with the Zagreb winners this week, in a nice moment at the end of the tournament.
As you can see some of the higher ranked players are missing, but a lot of those absences aren’t surprising. #1 Gilles Muller and #5 Go Soeda are far from admirers of clay, while #6 David Goffin hasn’t played the mandatory ten events to be eligible for this event. He is also ranked 22nd at the moment, of course, so he probably wouldn’t have entered anyway. #8 Albert Ramos-Vinolas and #10 Jan-Lennard Struff not competing might be a surprise, but then again, the schedule isn’t very convenient with both of them having played their last match in QR1 of the Paris Masters three weeks ago.
Groups
Group A
Simone Bolelli
Victor Estrella Burgos
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Maximo Gonzalez
Group B
Diego Schwartzman
Blaz Rola
Joao Souza
Guilherme Clezar
Round-robin match-ups to watch
Simone Bolelli – Victor Estrella Burgos
This is a heavyweight match-up between the two favorites to take down the title, there is a good chance we will see them face off in the final again. However, if they tire each other out too much, Schwartzman, who has an easier group, might take advantage. Estrella Burgos and Bolelli have never met each other, but you have to give Bolelli an edge here. Especially when they get entangled in backhand rallies I expect Bolelli to put a lot of pressure on Estrella Burgos’ defensive slices. Bolelli hasn’t played on clay since the first week of August, but he has time to find his rhythm since it will be the final encounter of the group.
Diego Schwartzman – Joao Souza
Schwartzman has had a great year, reaching six Challenger finals and winning four of them and climbing up to a career high ranking of #76. Souza has been less fortunate in finals, racking up a 1-3 record. However, he clearly had a great year, climbing fifty ranking spots to #90. They faced off once this year, in the final of the San Juan Challenger, with Schwartzman winning 7-6(5) 6-3. However, this tournament is played at the club where Souza grew up, so that might inspire him to make it a closer encounter this time around.
Group A
I have mentioned that Bolelli and Estrella are the favorites, but the competition isn’t too shabby. The last match Haider-Maurer played was in QR2 in Basel against Bolelli, with the Italian only barely scraping through: 3-6 6-4 6-3. Both players are very well-rounded, so a similar close encounter on clay wouldn’t be surprising. The wild card in this group is Gonzalez. It’s hard to predict what he is going to do. When is he on, he is as good as any of these guys, but he can just as easily have a bad day and become a walk-over. This happened at the Guayaquil Challenger last week, where he got hammered by Facundo Arguello: 6-4 6-0.
Group B
This group is likely to be unbalanced, with Brazilian wild card Clezar being ranked significantly lower than the other three. I expect Schwartzman to come through as the group winner, but the battle between Rola and Souza for the second spot is going to be really interesting. They met once this year, on clay, with Rola winning 3-6 7-6(2) 6-3. No doubt their match here will be just as close. Perhaps Souza’s home advantage can get him through this time.
