Rafael Nadal Looks to Stay Unbeaten On Clay At ATP Madrid 2018 Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
The Madrid Masters 1000 is the second of three ATP Masters on clay, and another chance for Spaniard Rafael Nadal to show off his legendary talents on clay, and for now, extend his unbeaten streak on the surface. Here is your full preview with predictions.
Nadal’s Quarter
Nadal hasn’t lost on clay this year and will open against Gael Monfils or a qualifier, I have him facing countryman Pablo Andujar in round 3. Andujar opens with fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, presuming he wins that it will be a struggling Diego Schwartzman or Adrian Mannarino in round 2. Nadal over Andujar is the pick for round 3.
Dominic Thiem will begin against a qualifier or Mischa Zverev, I’ll back Thiem to win that and defeat Pablo Carreno Busta or Borna Coric in round 3 to reach the quarters. The winner of PCB/Coric takes on J.L. Struff or a qualifier in round 2.
Juan Martin Del Potro should open his clay court season with a win over Damir Dzumhur or Julien Benneteau, I’ll back Richard Gasquet to edge Tomas Berdych and Karen Khachanov/qualifier before falling to Del Potro in the third round.
Kevin Anderson faces Roberto Carballes Baena or a qualifier, while Roberto Bautista Agut drew Jared Donaldson followed by Yuichi Sugita or Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohli, a current finalist in Munich, is likely going to face fatigue, and I’ll back Bautista Agut over Anderson in round 3.
Grigor Dimitrov will get a big matchup with Milos Raonic or a qualifier, his third round tilt should be a bit easier with Benoit Paire/Lucas Pouiille or Denis Shapovalov/Tennys Sandgren featuring. No one in this section is in great form besides Dimitrov, I have Paire winning a pair of matches before falling to the Bulgarian.
Kei Nishikori vs. Novak Djokovic is the match of the first round, both players are formerly elite and hoping to return to form with Madrid presenting a great opportunity. I’m more confident in Nishikori right now, and I have him beating Djokovic and Kyle Edmund/Daniil Medvedev to reach round 3. David Goffin has a great shot at making a run if he can get past Hyeon Chung (or Robin Haase) in round 2. I’ll go with Nishikori over Goffin in a challenging section of the draw.
Both Alexander Zverev and his potential 2nd round opponent Stefanos Tsitipas are currently in ATP finals (Munich and Estoril). I’ll go with Zverev to defeat Tsitipas/qualifier and Fabio Fognini to reach the quarters. Fognini opens with Leonardo Mayer, Paolo Lorenzi or Fernando Verdasco will follow.
America’s #1 and #2 John Isner and Jack Sock are in the same section. I have Sock being upset by Pablo Cuevas, with Cuevas going on to defeat Albert Ramos/Peter Gojowczyk in round 2. Isner should defeat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Ryan Harrison to reach the third round, and I’ll go with Isner over Cuevas at that stage.
Nadal is the heavy favorite against Thiem, but did lose to him on clay last year. Del Potro and Nishikori should have good weeks, while Isner benefits from his draw.
Semis
Nadal d. Del Potro
Nishikori d. Isner
Look for Nishikori to have a solid week, and Nadal to stay unbeaten on clay, taking home another title.
2017 ATP Madrid Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
One of the biggest stops on the road to Roland Garros, Madrid is Spain’s marquee ATP tournament and a joint event with the WTA, here is a complete preview of the week to come at the magic box.
Mutua Madrid Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Madrid, Spain
May 7-14, 2017
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €5,439,350
*Joint ATP/WTA Tournament
Top 8 seeds (Who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andy Murray (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stan Wawrinka (3)
4: Rafael Nadal (5)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Kei Nishikori (7)
7: Marin Cilic (8)
8: Dominic Thiem (9)
Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, and three of the top four American Men are the only major outs for Madrid this year, a top of the line Masters tournament.
First round matchups to watch:
(12)Grigor Dimitrov vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
After starting the season hot Dimitrov is in the midst of a slump, having lost four straight. He would love to end it Madrid, and Kohlschreiber, who is similarly underperforming, may be the opponent he can finally get back on track against. Kohli is not an easy out on clay but Dimitrov is simply too talented to keep losing early in tournaments, he should manage to find a way to win this.
Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
Verdasco has a h2h win but Zverev will be coming off the Munich final, and possibly a title there. He’s having a great run on clay thus far this year, and continues to rise, while Verdasco is a shadow of the player he was. Verdasco should be motivated to play in Spain, but as long as Zverev is fresh he will have an advantage in this one.
Tommy Haas vs. Gilles Muller
These 30+ tour veterans have split h2h meetings 2-2, and Haas is probably better on clay. That said, Muller is currently in the Estoril final and has surpassed his win total on clay over the past few seasons, just this year. Haas is 3-3 since returning to tour after a very long layoff, presuming Muller stays in the Madrid draw I actually have him returning to earth and dropping this match.
(9)David Goffin vs. Karen Khachanov
Goffin will look for revenge as Khachanov just beat him in Barcelona. The young Russian has not exited early on clay recently, but Goffin is one of the sport’s top players and has played well in Masters tournaments recently. Goffin is the worthy favorite, but this matchup clearly has upset potential once again.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. Diego Schwartzman
Both dirtballers are in good form and Schwartzman has the h2h edge. Ramos is playing at home in Spain though and as a finalist in Monte Carlo he’s been somewhat better against top level competition than the Argentine, who reached the semis in Istanbul as of late. This should be a close matchup, and will likely go three sets, but Ramos-Vinolas has the edge.
Tommy Robredo vs. Nicolas Almagro
A battle of veteran Spaniards, these dirtballers have plenty of wear on the tires but can still win matches on clay. Almagro, a new father, reached the semis in Estoril and has a big h2h edge while Robredo also has a clay quarterfinal this spring. Almagro should maintain his matchup advantage and win this one.
Top Half:
Andy Murray‘s first tough opponent should be Lucas Pouille, who has won nine of his last ten matches on clay, as neither Marius Copil nor Guillermo Garcia-Lopez are playing well, and one of those players will meet Murray in round 2. Pouille must defeat a qualifier and most likely his countryman Richard Gasquet, who hasn’t been healthy once again, and plays a struggling Mischa Zverev first up. Murray is just 15-5 this season and has struggled under the weight of expectations as world #1, Pouille will have more than a punchers chance in round 3, but Murray, a former Madrid champion, muddled through to the Barcelona semis and should survive a stern test.
Barcelona finalist Dominic Thiem looks set to continue to do damage in Spain, he should ease past Steve Darcis or a qualifier before facing home player Roberto Bautista Agut, who opens with big server Ivo Karlovic, with Dimitrov/Kohlschreiber to follow. This whole section is out of form except for Thiem, and thus Thiem should edge past RBA to reach round 4.
Stan Wawrinka looks set to face Pablo Cuevas, who knocked him out of Monte Carlo, in the third round. Wawrinka will get a difficult match with possible Estoril champion Carreno Busta in round 2 most likely (or a struggling Benoit Paire, his best friend), while Cuevas needs to defeat a qualifier and either Nicolas Mahut or Houston semifinalist Jack Sock, who is still at his weakest on clay, while Cuevas is at his best.
Presuming Zverev defeats Verdasco, we could see a matchup of tour champions of the previous week, that is if Marin Cilic wins Istanbul (he’s currently a finalist), and Zverev wins Munich. Tomas Berdych opens with a qualifier, neither Robin Haase nor Dan Evans are likely to compete well against Berdych, thus Zverev over Berdych is a sensible third round prediction.
Bottom Half:
Novak Djokovic, just 12-4 this season, fired his entire coaching team, dropping the hammer after struggling to regain the world #1 ranking this season. Djokovic, looking for a fresh start, will begin anew against either Robredo or Almagro, difficult but winnable matchups, with Gael Monfils perhaps most likely in round 3. Monfils is struggling as well, but Gilles Simon, Feliciano Lopez, or a qualifier are all somewhat poor as well, thus if Monfils finds some form he should get past Simon and Lopez before falling to Djokovic.
Kei Nishikori will make his European clay court debut this season against the Ramos-Vinolas/Schwartzman winner, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who lost his first match in Monte Carlo and hasn’t played since, opens with either a qualifier or Estoril semifinalist David Ferrer, who has had a miserable year. Nishikori over Tsonga seems like the sensible choice here, though form is in question for both.
Tournament favorite Rafael Nadal has four career Madrid titles (Djokovic and Murray both have a pair of titles in the Spanish capital), and should make at least the third round, as both Fabio Fognini and Joao Sousa are struggling. Nick Kyrgios would be up in round 3, as long as Kyrgios, who is recovering from the death of a family member, defeats Marcos Baghdatis, who struggles on clay, and either Ryan Harrison or countryman Bernard Tomic, who both made surprising quarterfinals on clay this past week. Nadal should buzz past Kyrgios given teh circumstances, Rafa has looked unstoppable on clay in Monte Carlo and Barcelona.
The winner of Goffin/Khachanov will face Marcel Granollers or Florian Mayer round 2, while current Istanbul finalist Milos Raonic will look to continue his positive momentum against the Muller/Haas winner. Goffin should edge Raonic on clay given the fatigue factor but that should be one of the matches of the tournament and could go either way.
Dark Horse: Lucas Pouille, Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, and Nicolas Almagro
Pouille has to get past Murray, but he’s in the form to do it, Zverev is playing well beyond his ranking right now on clay, Khachanov has shown great promise and if he gets past Goffin he could also knock off Raonic. Almagro would have to do the unexpected against Djokovic, but perhaps Djokovic will remain in his funk and Almagro will find inspiration.
Predictions
Quarters Thiem d. Murray
Wawrinka d. Zverev
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Nadal d. Goffin
Thiem should be favored over Murray on clay at this point, Wawrinka, Djokovic, and Nadal are the safe picks, not as reliable as they once were, but still favored all the same. Nadal in particular looks great right now.
Semis Thiem d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Djokovic
A rematch of the Barcelona final would be in order, Nadal is the best clay courter of all-time, and currently on tour in terms of form right now, he should win Madrid.
2016 ATP Madrid Preview and Predictions Steen Kirby and Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
It’s time for the second clay court masters tournament of the season, as most of the world’s top players will descend on the capital of Spain to duel in the magic box. Tennis Atlantic is excited to once again have credentialed coverage from the Mutua Madrid Open, as Niall Clarke will be providing you with reports on the day’s matchplay. Here is a preview and prediction for the ATP side of the tournament.
Mutua Madrid Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000*
Madrid, Spain
May 1-8, 2016
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €4,771,360
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Novak Djokovic (1)
2: Andy Murray (2)
3: Roger Federer (3)
4: Stan Wawrinka (4)
5: Rafael Nadal (5)
6: Kei Nishikori (6)
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7)
8: Tomas Berdych (8)
Marin Cilic, John Isner, young gun Alexander Zverev, and Martin Klizan are the only notable players missing from the tournament. Jiri Vesely, who recently stunned Novak Djokovic on clay in Monte Carlo, is also absent.
Madrid features some great first round matchups, and this is certainly one of them. The veteran Spaniard Almagro just won the title in Estoril, and is clearly comfortable both on clay, and in Madrid. He’s experiencing a bit of a career resurgence right now, and would like to keep the momentum going. Borna Coric was a quarterfinalist in Estoril, and also a finalist in Casablanca, as the Croatian young gun continues to steadily improve his standing on the ATP tour.
Given the fatigue factor, I favor Coric to win this, as Almagro is coming off of a three set final.
Leonardo Mayer vs. Feliciano Lopez
Mayer beat Lopez in Madrid last year, and he comes off the quarters in Estoril. Lopez has a semifinal in Houston, and won a round in Barcelona, so while he’s no clay court specialist, he is playing at a home tournament, and has a bit of momentum working in his favor. This should be a close match, as the baseliner Mayer will play a more traditional clay court game, while Lopez will look to be aggressive. This one could go either way, but I narrowly favor Lopez.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Pablo Cuevas
Kohlschreiber is 32, and 7-1 in his last two tournaments, thus his clay court form is great, but he should be on upset alert given the fatigue factor, against an accomplished clay courter in Cuevas. This is a tough first round match for the Munich champion, as Cuevas keeps the ball in play, and is 2-2 in his last four clay court matches, after a strong Golden Swing earlier this season. Cuevas should grind Kohlschreiber down, and pull an upset.
David Goffin drew the toughest qualifier, as Lucas Pouille is nearly into the top 50 at 22, and beat him in Brisbane this year in a huge upset. Pouille is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, and reached a clay court final in Bucharest recently. He’s rapidly improving his game that has plenty of weapons, while Goffin has limped to a disappointing 3-2 record on clay this Spring, and does not appear to be dialed in thus far on the surface.
Goffin was once in great form, and he could still win this match, but a Pouille win wouldn’t surprise me, and this match should feature incredible ball striking.
(14)Dominic Thiem vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
The Munich finalist Thiem is 5-2 on spring clay thus far, and looks to be playing well. I have him making a deep run here, and this match against Del Potro could turn into a mere formality. However, he could be suffering from fatigue after playing the Munich final, and the big hitting Del Potro is slowly finding form. Del Potro won a pair of matches in Munich, and is at least a credible ATP level player right now. The style contrast will be interesting.
Houston finalist Jack Sock is making his debut this season on European clay. Unlike many of the American players, he can play well on the surface, and certainly has a chance to win this match against Paire. The Frenchman has made consecutive semifinals in Barcelona, and Estoril, he’s inconsistent usually, but he’s found form as of late.
Sock will contest this match hard, but I have Paire better on clay, and advancing.
(WC)Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Grigor Dimitrov
A hobbled Grigor Dimitrov suffered defeat in the ATP Istanbul final, and appeared to be extremely upset and frustrated with himself. The Bulgarian #1 is 3-0 against PCB though, and the Spaniard is coming off of his own ATP final in Estoril. PCB played well in Estoril, scoring four wins, three of which came over solid ATP players, and he also has a clay quarterfinal in Casablanca this year.
Dimitrov is 4-2 on spring clay, and should be the favorite, but I’m not sure where his head will be for this match.
Novak Djokovic hasn’t won the Madrid Masters since 2011, and he suffered his first clay loss of the season to Jiri Vesely in Monte Carlo. That was a stunning defeat, but you have to assume the world #1 will recover, and go relatively far in Madrid, if not win the tournament. Djokovic will open with the Almagro/Coric winner, Coric could give him a good test, but he should win that match and then defeat Roberto Bautista Agut to reach the quarters. The Spaniard opens with qualifier Santiago Giraldo with either Mayer or Lopez to follow. RBA is normally solid on clay though he lost in Barcelona, thus he’s the favorite for a third round spot.
Milos Raonic hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals in a tournament this season, he should be able to continue that streak with wins over Thomaz Bellucci, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, though Tsonga is by far the toughest opponent of that group. Bellucci has been struggling mightily, Dolgopolov just beat Steve Johnson in a round 1 three setter and is unpredictable, coming off a quarterfinal in Barcelona. Tsonga was a semifinalist in Monte Carlo, where he beat Roger Federer, and he should be able to get past Istanbul quarterfinalist Albert Ramos (or Jeremy Chardy), in round 2.
Raonic beat Tsonga in 2014 on clay, and his strong and consistent play is why I have him reaching the quarters.
Wawrinka’s Quarter
Stan Wawrinka has been in poor form in recent months, most recently dropping a quarterfinal match in Monte Carlo. However, he’s a solid clay court player and a former Madrid finalist. One of the most anticipated matches of round 2 should be Wawrinka against Nick Kyrgios. Kyrgios has reached consecutive semifinals, including on clay in Estoril. He’ll need to defeat Bucharest quarterfinalist Guido Pella first. Wawrinka and Kyrgios have a heated rivalry, though they have only met three times, given this is clay, I give Wawrinka a slight edge to advance, but wouldn’t be surprised if Kyrgios won.
Pablo Cuevas is my dark horse pick to reach the third round, after Kohlschreiber, he’s likely to face Gael Monfils. Monfils has been in great form and reached the final in Monte Carlo, but he has was injured and had to withdrawal from Munich. His opening round opponent Kevin Anderson has been injured himself, and thus he should win that match, but I don’t trust Monfils to consistently be able to post solid performances yet, and Cuevas excels at keeping the ball in play and grinding through matches. Wawrinka or Kyrgios should defeat Cuevas in round three though, Monfils is a bit of a wild card in this section too, full of talented, but wildly varying performers.
Kei Nishikori, a finalist in Barcelona, and a former finalist in Madrid, should be the favorite to win this quarter. Nishikori does not have an easy draw, but he’s reached consecutive ATP finals, demonstrating the tremendous form he’s riding right now. Barcelona quarterfinalist and Munich semifinalist Fabio Fognini is also playing well, and he should dispatch a struggling Bernard Tomic in round 1. Tomic has lost three straight.
Richard Gasquet is set to face Nishikori in round 3, Gasquet opens with qualifier Roberto Carballes Baena, with Fernando Verdasco to follow. Verdasco just beat Juan Monaco in round 1 and took the title in Bucharest. The veteran Spaniard is playing at home, and is in form, while Gasquet isn’t in great form, but his superior talent should get him through the first two rounds, before falling to Nishikori. Gasquet is 6-0 against Nishikori but has never faced him on clay.
Federer’s Quarter
Roger Federer is a three time champion in Madrid, and came off the Monte Carlo quarterfinals after returning from injury. Federer is perhaps the highest seed most likely to exit before the quarterfinals as I have him losing to the talented, and in-form Dominic Thiem. Federer will open with either Joao Sousa or Nicolas Mahut, both players are struggling, and that means Federer should win with ease. Thiem will face the Sock/Paire winner after Del Potro, he could lose that match if he’s fatigued, but his great form has me picking him to go as far as the quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal has four career titles in Madrid, and is defending finals points here as well. He should easily defeat either Andrey Kuznetsov or Viktor Troicki, most likely Kuznetsov as he comes off a quarterfinal in Barcelona. Nadal against Goffin is my pick for the third round. After Pouille, Goffin will face Pierre-Hugues Herbert, or Sam Querrey in round 2. The qualifier Herbert has been in great form (qualified for all Masters singles draws this season), particularly in doubles, and he could spring a surprise. Querrey reached the quarterfinals in Houston, but is usually poor on clay. Nadal should demolish Goffin or Pouille to reach the quarters.
Murray’s Quarter
Andy Murray is the defending champion, and he has a rather easy draw to get back to the quarterfinals at least. The weakest section of the draw features Vasek Pospisil or qualifier Radek Stepanek as Murray’s first opponent, with most likely Gilles Simon to feature in round 3, though Simon has to defeat veteran Marcos Baghdatis and PCB/Dimitrov first. Simon has never played Baghdatis on clay, and he’s 3-2 in his last five matches on the surface. Baghdatis is normally poor on clay. PCB is an interesting dark horse here, but I presume fatigue will end his march. Dimitrov’s lack of focus should help Simon advance, before falling to Murray, who reached the semis in Monte Carlo, his only stint on clay this season.
Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer are the top seeds in the competitive section above Murray. Berdych is a former Madrid finalist, while Ferrer was twice a semifinalist at home in Spain. It’ll be Berdych against either qualifier Denis Istomin, or a struggling Teymuraz Gabashvili in round 2, while Ferrer opens with countryman Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Ferrer won both meetings against GGL last year in dominating fashion, GGL has a quarterfinal and a semifinal in recent weeks on clay, and Ferrer has been struggling, but the talent gap is still there. Ferrer against qualifier Denis Kudla is my pick for round 2, Kudla has a recent challenger semi on clay, while Ivo Karlovic snapped a long losing streak to reach the semis in Istanbul in improbable fashion. The veteran likely loses in the opening round this time.
Ferrer and Berdych have a competitive h2h, Berdych did lose in the opening round of Monte Carlo, but I have a feeling he’ll rebound and do well in Madrid with his power game.
Dark Horse: Pablo Cuevas and Lucas Pouille
If you’re looking for unseeded players in the top and bottom half who might make a splash, look no farther than Cuevas, who should face opponents at less than 100% until he faces Wawrinka/Kyrgios round 3, and Pouille, who has to defeat Goffin, and Herbert/Querrey to setup an interesting third round match with Nadal. Nadal and Wawrinka/Kyrgios should both prevail, stopping either player from reaching the second week, but they are both clay court threats.
Predictions
Quarters Djokovic d. Raonic
Nishikori d. Wawrinka
Nadal d. Thiem
Murray d. Berdych
On clay, Djokovic, and Nadal are both clear favorites, though Thiem has a win over Nadal this year, Rafa got him back in Monte Carlo. Nishikori is in better form than Wawrinka, and Murray should have the edge over Berdych given the surface and stage.
Semis Djokovic d. Nishikori
Nadal d. Murray
Nishikori seems to lack the staying power to compete with Djokovic from the baseline, while Nadal is a cut above Murray on clay right now, as he demonstrated in the Monte Carlo semi.
Final Djokovic d. Nadal
A possible preview to the French Open “final” before the final, Djokovic has won six straight against Rafa, including two matches this year, and most of their contests haven’t even been close. Nadal has won two straight tournaments on clay (Monte Carlo and Barcelona), but he did so without facing Djokovic, and until he proves to me that the current Rafa can defeat the current Novak, I have to pick Djokovic to win this title.
2015 ATP Madrid Preview, Predictions Steen Kirby, Tennis Atlantic
Tennis Atlantic’s Niall Clarke, and Adam Addicott will both be in Madrid this week as credentialed members of the press, and they will be providing us with fantastic onsite coverage of the second clay court Masters event of the season, this one of course at the Magic Box in Madrid. As an appetizer for that, here is a preview, and some predictions for the men’s draw.
2015 ATP Madrid Open Preview
Mutua Madrid Open ATP World Tour Masters 1000* Madrid, Spain May 3-May 10, 2015 Prize Money: €4,185,405
*denotes joint ATP/WTA event
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Roger Federer (2)
2: Andy Murray (3)
3: Rafael Nadal (4)
4: Kei Nishikori (5)
5: Milos Raonic (6)
6: Tomas Berdych (7)
7: David Ferrer (8)
8: Stan Wawrinka (9)
Novak Djokovic is the notable absence here, as the world number 1 cited fatigue in skipping Madrid, and he’s never liked playing at the venue anyway. In addition, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo and Andreas Seppi are the only other notables missing from the draw.
First round matchups to watch:
Nick Kyrgios vs. (Q)Daniel Gimeno-Traver
Both players are in great form going into this match, Kyrgios raced to the Estoril final in a surprise, though he lost rather routinely to Richard Gasquet, and DGT was a finalist in Casablanca, a semifinalist in Bucharest, and most recently a quarterfinalist in Istanbul before qualifying for Madrid with a pair of routine wins. They have never met before, and DGT has more experience on clay, while Kyrgios has more talent, and both should be about equally fatigued. I have Kyrgios winning, but it should be close, and it’s an interesting match.
Sock and Andujar have a split hard court h2h, while Andujar won a round in Munich, only to retire in his next match (previous to that the Spaniard reached the 500 series final in Barcelona on home soil with a shock run). Sock is playing his first tournament since taking the title on har-tru clay in Houston. The outcome of this match likely hinges on Andujar’s health, but it still presents a good opportunity for Sock to beat a solid clay court opponent, who is in some level of good form. If Andujar is healthy, he’s the favorite given his experience on the surface, but Sock has plenty of potential and he could well get this win, as it’s always notable when an American can win a match on European clay.
Fabio Fognini vs. Santiago Giraldo
This time last year, Giraldo was on-fire but he’s struggling now, and he will face off with the unpredictable Fognini who crashed out in the quarterfinals of Munich last week. Giraldo beat Fognini in Sao Paulo this year, and that evened their clay court h2h 3-3. Giraldo likewise won a round in Istanbul and then lost in an upset, and over their past two tournaments Giraldo is 2-2 and Fognini is 3-2, thus everything on paper makes this seem like an open match. It’s a hard prediction to make, but when Fognini isn’t facing Nadal (who he has beaten twice this year), I don’t trust him, and thus I have Giraldo winning.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Verdasco is 3-0 at the ATP level on clay against GGL, but he’s lost two straight matches on clay, while GGL won Bucharest, and then comes off a semifinal result in Estoril. Over the past two weeks, Garcia-Lopez has beaten notable names Gael Monfils, Kevin Anderson and Borna Coric, however he may be fatigued from playing so many matches. Both are home players so they should feel comfortable with the home cooking in Madrid, and it’s hard to predict, but you have to go with Garcia-Lopez’s form at the moment and I have him advancing in the battle of talented shotmakers.
(9)Marin Cilic vs. Jiri Vesely
The Croat Cilic has never faced the Czech Vesely, and it’s an interesting matchup, as both are lanky hitters with a good amount of power but questionable movement. Cilic reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo with a pair of wins, but cooled off and was upset in Barcelona, while Vesely has been in good form on clay, reaching the final in Bucharest, and also a semi in Casablanca already this clay court season. He hasn’t beaten any top names on the surface this year, and he struggled in Munich, but I’d still give him an outside shot to upset Cilic if the Croat continues to be rusty coming off of injury. Cilic is the favorite, but watch out for Jiri here.
Juan Monaco vs. (WC)Nicolas Almagro
Monaco beat Almagro in a high quality contest in Buenos Aires this year, but he’s just 2-5 overall on ATP clay against the Spaniard, who will be playing on home soil of course. Monaco is 2-2 on European clay in his past four matches, while Almagro reached the quarters in both Casablanca and Estoril. Almagro has not been quite up to par with his former self, but neither has Monaco, as both were formerly reliable top 20 players who maximized their games, now with their current versions it’s a 50/50 matchup, and I’m going with Monaco as I felt Almagro did not play that well in Estoril.
Top Half:
3 time Madrid champion Roger Federer, who won the Istanbul title, will open with either Kyrgios or DGT and NK could catch Federer on the downswing and pull off a huge upset, though he may be too fatigued from Estoril. Federer has struggled in Istanbul, dropping a pair of sets to much lower ranked players, and those are worrying signs for the Swiss champion. That said, given this is clay, I don’t have the confidence to pick Kyrgios, and he could even lose to DGT as mentioned. Federer beat DGT in three sets in Istanbul.
Look for Federer/Kyrgios to advance to the quarters over John Isner most likely, as the American has a weak draw of Adrian Mannarino, and a qualifier Thomaz Bellucci/Jeremy Chardy. Chardy is struggling, and the qualifier Bellucci may have a shot here as well. Isner is actually 0-2 against Chardy, and they have never met on clay. Isner won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo to reach that same R16 stage though. Bellucci has beaten Isner before on clay, and he comes off quarterfinals in Istanbul.
Tomas Berdych has been on fire this year, the Monte Carlo finalist (most recently), is most likely to face Richard Gasquet, who he is just 1-2 against on clay in his opening match. Gasquet is a current finalist in Estoril, and he’s playing well, though his back has been giving him problems. Presuming he stays in the draw, Gasquet will need to defeat non-clay courter Ivo Karlovic to reach the second round. Given how well he’s played all season, Berdych should be safe to reach round 3, where he will face either Andujar/Sock or Lukas Rosol/Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Munich and Bucharest quarterfinalist Rosol has played decently well as of late, while Tsonga has lost two straight. He still should win the mathc against Rosol as he beat him last year on clay, and I’ve picked him to do so, before falling to Sock in an upset, as I feel Sock is playing well enough right now to pull off a pair of upsets, before falling to Berdych in round 3. No matter, a Federer vs. Berdych quarterfinal is the most likely outcome of this interesting section of the draw.
Four time and defending champion Rafael Nadal has been struggling this season, but he still should be safe against Steve Johnson/qualifier Alejandro Gonzalez in his opening match. In the third round, his opponent is uncertain, the seed Kevin Anderson lost early in Estoril and is not a clay court player, later falling to Simone Bolelli in Sunday action. Bolelli is an unpredictable player who is decently good on clay (a quarterfinalist in Bucharest) just below Anderson in the draw. Also here is Bernard Tomic who has lost two straight on clay, but has the talent to excel in theory. I look for Tomic to beat a qualifier, and then Bolelli to beat him. Nadal should then beat Bolelli, as he has done four times previously.
8 seed Stan Wawrinka, a former finalist here, is struggling mightily and appears dazed and confused on tour right now, still Jerzy Janowicz is the type of opponent he’d like to start with, as he’s a high risk power player, not a reliably smooth ball striker, and thus should spew enough errors to give Wawrinka a chance to get his footing in the match. Janowicz will need to defeat lucky loser Joao Sousa and end a two match losing streak on clay to get the Wawrinka matchup. Wawrinka is just 3-4 since winning Rotterdam, but he’s beaten JJ on clay before and more likely I see Wawrinka going out to either Grigor Dimitrov, who beat him in Monte Carlo, or the Fognini/Giraldo winner in round 3.
Dimitrov is an interesting case, he will open with Donald Young, who is poor on clay, and he should be favored against either Fognini or Giraldo. He beat Fogna in Monte Carlo, and he’s simply better than Giraldo, that said, he lost in the semis of Istanbul in an upset, and was poor in that match, so his form is a question mark. That said, given the h2h, Dimitrov should be motivated at the Masters level to also beat Wawrinka and setup a quarterfinal against Nadal.
Andy Murray, in the hunt for his first ever clay court title in Munich still, where he is a finalist, could very well face his opponent in that Munich final, Philipp Kohlschreiber in a rematch, presuming Kohli stays in th draw coming off a busy week of long matches in Munich, and beats qualifier Alejandro Falla In that rematch, I have Murray winning, given fitness, and the fact I have him winning in Munich too. Murray could be posed with trouble in the third round as Gael Monfils lurks. Monfils pulled out of Munich, citing a knee injury, but he’s been playing well when healthy and will open with the struggling Viktor Troicki before facing Martin Klizan or Marcel Granollers. Klizan is also in good form, as the Slovak reached the semis in Barcelona, and won Casablanca (Monfils reached the semis in both Monte Carlo and Bucharest). With both players coming off a break, I’m favoring Klizan to advance, but that match could very well go either way with such unpredictable players, and I’d favor Klizan or Monfils over Murray in round 3. Murray is 2-1 on clay against Monfils but they have always battled on the surface, and Murray played a lot of tennis in Munich. Klizan and Murray have never played, but I favor the clay court form of the big hitter. Klizan is the quarterfinalist in my draw.
5 seed Milos Raonic will have a tough match right away and is in danger of exiting the tournament at the hands of the Almagro/Monaco winner. Monaco has beaten Raonic on clay (and is 2-0 in the overall h2h), while Raonic has beaten Almagro on clay, and is 2-0 against him. Raonic reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo before retiring in that match, and he’s deceptively a quality player on clay, that said, the retirement is a question mark, and I’m going with an upset with Monaco reaching the third round over Raonic. Raonic/Monaco/Almagro would all have the edge to reach the quarters, the seed Feliciano Lopez is struggling mightily on clay, as he’s suffered early exits as of late, though his first round opponent Benjamin Becker is not a clay courter either. Leo Mayer could be the round 2 opponent of Lopez/Becker, but he’s been pedestrian this season, and has lost two straight on clay after a great run on the surface last year. Gilles Muller reached the quarters of Estoril, winning two matches on clay for the time in multiple seasons, and Muller/Mayer is a harder match to pick than one would think. Still I have Mayer reaching the third round in a very weak section, and then falling to his countryman Monaco.
Defending finalist Kei Nishikori will face David Goffin or Ernests Gulbis in his opening match. Gulbis has lost four straight matches and has been in free fall this season, while Goffin reached the quarters in Munich but has been pedestrian as well as of late. Nishikori, the Barcelona champion, should frankly demolish either player (most likely Goffin), and he dismantled Goffin in Miami 6-1 6-2 not too long ago. Nishikori will also be a strong favorite over most likely Roberto Bautista Agut in round 3. RBA has a weak draw of Marius Copil, a wild card, and Sam Querrey/qualifier Thanasi Kokkinakis. Nishikori won a 3 setter against RBA in Barcelona and RBA comes off the semis in Munich. Nishikori, the more complete player, is likely to face David Ferrer in the quarters.
Ferrer, who has only reached the semis in Madrid (twice), opens with either qualifier Albert Ramos or current Istanbul finalist Pablo Cuevas, Cuevas is in great form but could be tired, while Ramos has been unpredictable. Ferrer is 2-0 against Cuevas and he was a semifinalist in Madrid, after previously reaching the quarters in Monte Carlo. Ferrer could have a tougher matchup against either Verdasco/Garcia-Lopez or Cilic/Vesely, in round 3. GGL, presuming he beat Verdasco, just beat Vesely in Bucharest, and he’s 1-1 against Cilic. Given current form, I’m going with Garcia-Lopez into the third round before falling to Ferrer, who has beaten him three times previously on clay.
Dark Horses: Nick Kyrgios, Fabio Fognini, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Martin Klizan
Jack Sock should do well in the top half, but Kyrgios has the most upside potential, if he does play his best, he could shock Federer, and run all the way to at least the quarterfinals, on the heels of his run to the final (and perhaps a title) in Estoril. Clay is not his best surface, but the Aussie young gun is on the rise, and there is little doubt he has top 10 ability, and will eventually get there, perhaps sooner rather than later, the Madrid draw gives him a chance to notch another remarkable result for his age.
Fognini is incredibly unpredictable, and likely loses in round 1 to Giraldo, but he still has great upside potential. If he catches fire, he could beat Giraldo, upset Dimitrov and then defeat likely Wawrinka to setup another rematch with Nadal, who he has beaten twice this year (most recently in Barcelona). It’s not likely any of that happens, but he has the clay court ability if he can keep his head on straight and put in the effort to get it done.
Garcia-Lopez may be fatigued but he’s been in great form on clay as of late, and if he beats Verdasco and Cilic/Vesely, he could also upset Ferrer and reach the quarters, on home soil, anything is possible if he finds his inspiration and is fit enough to get it done.
Klizan will have tough tests in Monfils, and likely Murray in order, but if he gets past that murderers row, the draw opens up with a winnable quarterfinal against Monaco/Almagro/Raonic waiting in the wings, and a chance to reach his first ever Masters semifinal. He could even reach the final, though Nishikori/Ferrer/other would of course be the favorite.
Quarters:
Federer d. Berdych
Nadal d. Dimitrov
Klizan d. Monaco
Nishikori d. Ferrer
Federer has never lost to Berdych on clay, thus even though he’s playing so well this season, I don’t feel like he’ll get over the hump. Nadal is 5-0 against Dimitrov, so again I feel like he gets lucky and reaches the semis, Klizan just beat Monaco in sets in Barcelona, and Nishikori beat Ferrer in their only meeting on clay here in Madrid last year.
Semis:
Federer d. Nadal
Nishikori d. Klizan
Nadal should have the edge, but I feel Federer is an actual superior player right now, and he’ll expose and take advantage of a weak Nadal, Nishikori should beat Klizan again or any other player to each the final.
Final:
Nishikori d. Federer
Nishikori won the only clay court h2h meeting against Federer, and I feel no matter who his opponent it is, be it Federer, Nadal, Berdych or another player, that he will win this title. He was solid in Barcelona, and he would have won last year if he hadn’t injured himself. Clearly it’s a venue he enjoys and he’s rising overall, so a maiden Masters 100 title would be well deserved.
