2017 WTA @InteBNLdItalia WTA Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
It is the last grand tournament before the French Open, and one that finishes the back- to-back Premier weeks. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is here and we have a run down of the 64 woman draw.
Top Quarter:
It is fair to say that Madrid did not go to plan for Angelique Kerber. The world number one is still trying to find her feet this season, but clay is not her best surface. Kerber should be good for the third round, but things get interesting form then on. She could possibly meet Maria Sharapova in round three, providing the Russian cat beat Christina McHale then the winner of Lucie Safarova vs Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. With Kerber’s struggles this year, Sharapova could make the last eight here, but the world number one will still be the favourite given how soon the Russian is in to her comeback.
Simona Halep once again had a good run in Madrid, so her participation in Rome may slightly be in doubt. Players can often do well one week then withdraw the next so it will be interesting to see if the Romanian heads to Rome. If so, Halep will be one of the favourites. Laura Seigemund or Naomi Osaka will welcome Halep to Rome. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is projected to face the sixth seed in the third round, but she has a tough draw with Sam Stosur and Anastasija Sevastova in her section.
Prediction: Halep def. Kerber
Second Quarter:
Dominika Cibulkova failed to defend her final points in Madrid, so Rome could be a big tournament for the Slovakian. She will want to avoid another early exit when she faces the winner of Roberta Vinci and Ekaterina Makarova in the second round. The first seeded player projected for Cibulkova is Kiki Bertens. The Dutchwoman played well to make the quarter finals in Madrid and could be a handful for the fourth seed should they meet in the third round. Bertens opens against Monica Niculescu, then will likely face Misaki Doi in the second round. There are some tough matches but Cibulkova will be the favourite to make it to the quarter finals.
Svetlana Kuznetsova had another good run in Madrid where she made the semi finals. Clay suits the Russian’s game and given the quarter she will fancy another semi final appearance in Rome. Katerina Siniakova or Shuai Zheng will be her first opponent, then possibly Madison Keys in round three. The American could have a difficult match against Caroline Garcia in round three, providing the Frenchwoman is fit after her back injury. But Keys is a former finalist here and could set up an interesting clash with Kuznetsova in the third round.
Prediction: Kuznetsova def. Cibulkova
Third Quarter:
The third quarter is headlined by a player who is out of form, and another who struggles on clay…this could get messy. Johanna Konta has never adapted well to the dirt, and her early exit in Madrid was not a surprise. It will not be a shock to see the Briton struggle against Monica Puig or Yulia Putintseva in round two. Venus Williams is another player who struggles on clay, and she has a dangerous draw against Yaroslava Shvedova. It is a hard section to call as almost every player could make the quarter finals.
Garbine Muguruza’s year did not get any better in Madrid where she lost in round one. The Spaniard did go deep in Rome last year, though, and will be looking to repeat that result in 2017. Muguruza should be good for the third round, but Kristina Mladenovic in the round of 16 could be a bridge too far, if she is not feeling the effects of her run in Madrid. The Frenchwoman has been in fine form this year, and could have a good result again in Rome. Mladenovic opens against Julia Goerges, then plays Alison Riske or Jelena Jankovic in round two.
Prediction: Mladenovic def. Venus
Fourth Quarter:
Karolina Pliskova is another player who often struggles to adapt her game to clay, so there could be another upset on the cards in the fourth quarter. Pliskova was soundly beaten by Sevastova in Madrid, and Carla Suarez Navarro could be a tough match too in the second round of Rome. Barbora Strycova is scheduled for the third round, but the Czech has a tough opener against Daria Kasatkina, then possibly Timea Bacsinszky.
Elina Svitolina exited Madrid shockingly early, but the Ukrainian could respond well in Rome. The eighth seed faces Alize Cornet or Sara Errani in the second round, two difficult opponents but players she should beat. Elena Vesnina is the projected third round opponent, and the Russian should make it too with a host of qualifiers in the section. It is a good draw for Svitolina, though, who should make the semi finals and possibly go further.
It is a tough tournament to call because there are so many unknown factors. Halep and Mladenovic are the form players but will their Madrid run leave them fatigued for Rome? The draw is open to a lot of upsets too but I am picking the in-form Halep to go all the way.
Serena Williams captured her first title of 2016 by defeating Madison Keys in the final of the Internazionali BNL Italia in Rome.
The world number one went down an early break as Keys came out firing, but Williams was able to break back at 2-3. The pair exchanged big serves and powerful ground strokes all the way to a tiebreak. And whilst there were no more break points after 2-3, the tiebreak saw plenty of service mini breaks, but it was Serena who got the crucial point to take the opener 7-6(5).
The top seed took control with a double break in the second set, but Serena had problems closing it out. Keys broke back, was broken again, then Serena failed to serve out the match. She would not get another chance however as she quickly broke her opponent again to seal the match and the title.
“I feel like it was important for me to just go out there like usual,” she said in her post-match press conference. “It’s a totally new match, it’s a different week, you know, and hopefully just win one. If not, hope for next time, next week.”
The win gives Serena a huge confidence boost heading into her French Open title defence. The American had a poor start to the season by her standards, failing to collect a title until now. This is her first for an incredible nine months.
For Keys however, it was still a great week. Her win over Garbine Muguruza was in particular a very impressive power display, even on a surface that she has usually struggled on.
“I think no matter how many times you play Serena, you always go in and you can just feel her presence,” Keys said after the match. “That’s always an extra thing that you have to be worried about during the match.
“But for me today it really wasn’t so much about how big the tournament was or anything like that. It was really just wanting to go out and do my best and give my best performance.”
The doubles title was won by Sania Mirza and Msrtina Hingis. The top team in the world defeated Elena Vesnina and Ekaterina Makarova in the final.
WTA Rome Preview, Predictions Niall Clarke, Tennis Atlantic
After a rollercoaster ride in Madrid, the tour heads to Italy for the Internazionali BNL D’Italia in Rome.
Internazionali BNL D’Italia
Location: Rome, Italy
Tier: Premier
Surface: Clay
Prize money: € 2,399,000
Date: May 9-15
Top eight seeds Ranking):
Serena Williams (1)
Angelique Kerber (3)
Garbine Muguruza (4)
Victoria Azarenka (5)
Petra Kvitova (6)
Simona Halep (7)
Roberta Vinci (8)
Carla Suarez Navarro (11)
The big absentees are Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska.
First round matches to watch:
Madison Keys vs Andrea Petkovic
This should be a nicely contested match between two players with different styles. Keys brings huge power to the court whilst Petkovic likes to counter.
These two have met only once before in Beijing in 2014. The German got the better of that one 6-2, 6-3. Neither player boasts the best of form so this could act as a confidence booster. Winner gets Kvitova in the second round
Ana Ivanovic vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
If the Russian brings her Madrid form into Rome then we could see a potential upset in the opening round against Ivanovic.
The Serb bowed out in the Spanish capital to Louisa Chirico and is 5/5 in her last ten matches. However she has a dominant head to head of 7-1 over Pavlyuchenkova, with two of those victories coming on clay.
The Russian picked up a victory in Wuhan last year but the clay should suit the former world number one more.
Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Caroline Garcia
Svetlana Kuznetsova (Photo: Chris Levy @Tennis_Shots for TennisAtlantic.com)
Of matches that can go either way, this might be near the top of the list. Both players are capable of producing excellent tennis, but they struggle with consistency.
Kuznetsova and Garcia did not have the best of tournaments in Madrid and will be looking to respond with a good victory here. Their last match was a three set thriller in Miami, will be get a repeat in Rome?
Draw Analysis
Top half
The world number one is back in action to play her first clay court tournament of the year after skipping Madrid. Williams is still looking for her first title this season five months into it. Serena should breeze through her second round against Anna Schmiedlova or Anna-Lena Friedsam to set up a potential clash with Ana Ivanovic. The Serb could have her hands full with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Simona Halep played her best tennis in a long time in Madrid and suddenly it looks like she is a grand slam contender again. The Romanian will meet either Sabine Lisicki or Daria Gavrilova in the second round, both can be dangerous but both are should wins. Svetlana Kuznetsova is the projected third round opponent but the Russian could have her handsful with Caroline Garcia in round one and Sam Stosur in round two. Stosur is on a good run of form after the final in Prague and semi final run in Madrid.
Azarenka is still down to play in Rome despite having a back injury that forced her out of Madrid earlier than she would have liked. The world number four is getting back to her best form and could be classed as a favourite to take home the title if healthy. Irina Begu or Margarita Gasparyan is not an easy round two by any means though. Begu is a consistent player whilst Gasparyan is a highly touted young player. Karolina Pliskova is projected for round three, but the Czech’s game does not translate best on the dirt. Monica Niculescu or Daria Kasatkina could take advantage of that fact.
Vinci will be the highest ranked Italian in the draw and possible crowd favourite. The seventh seed will likely entertain British number one Johanna Konta in the second round. The draw is quite nice for Konta to have a deep run. Lucie Safarova is the other seed within this section, and will face Francesca Schiavone in the opening round. The Czech withdrew from Madrid, so is she healthy enough to have a good run here?
Bottom half
Third seed Muguruza is still searching for her best form this year so she will be hoping for a quick turnaround in fortunes in Rome. Ekaterina Makarova or Danka Kovinic await in the second round, with the consistent Elina Svitolina possible for the third. The Ukrainian could face the very out-of-form Kristina Mladenovic in the second round, providing the Frenchman defeats Jelena Ostapenko.
It is possible that we could see an all Spanish quarter final here, that is providing that Suarez Navarro has recovered from her illness in Madrid. The eighth seed should not have many problems making he third round, but from there it could be tricky. Timea Bacsinszky is the projected opponent at this stage.
Kerber will be hoping that Rome goes more like Stuttgart than Madrid. The German was the winner in her home country but lost in the first roud in the Spanish capital. It’s either Jelena Jankovic or Eugenie Bouchard who will welcome her to the Italian capital. Sara Errani will be the home favourite from this section and could go deep on her best surface. Barbora Strycova is perhaps her biggest hurdle before Kerber in the third round.
Kvitova failed to defend her Madrid title so will be playing points catch-up in Rome. The Czech will have a tough opener against either Andrea Petkovic or Madison Keys. Like her sister, Venus Williams returns to action this week as the 12th seed. She will play big serving compatriot CoCo Vandeweghe in round one, then potentially another big server in Timea Babos in the second round.
Predictions:
Quarter finals:
Serena def. Halep
Azarenka def. Konta
Suarez Navarro def. Muguruza
Kerber def. Kvitova
Semi Finals:
Serena def. Azarenka
Kerber def. Suarez Navarro
Final:
Serena def. Kerber
It just seems so strange that Serena has not won anything this year that you have to predict her to win Rome. It might be a difficult and long road to the title, but the world number one will defeat Kerber in the final.
2016 Busan, Aix en Provence, Karshi and Rome Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Busan Open Challenger Tour Tennis
ATP Challenger Tour
Busan, Korea
2-8 May 2016
Hardcourt, Rebound Ace
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Ricardas Berankis (55)
2: John Millman (66)
3: Sam Groth (80)
4: Hyeon Chung (84)
5: Tatsuma Ito (104)
6: Lukas Lacko (113)
7: Yuichi Sugita (114)
8: Michael Berrer (115)
The last direct acceptance is Ti Chen, ranked 213th.
First round match-up to watch
(4) Hyeon Chung – Konstantin Kravchuk
19-year-old Chung peaked at a ranking of #51 in October, but still struggles with the transition to main tour tennis, having dropped to his current ranking of #82 and now trying to increase his ranking again by playing a Challenger. Hopefully this won’t be a recurring theme, because in the long run he will be better off facing stronger opposition in main tour events. Chung has already shown he is above Challenger level and will likely pick up another title here.
Top Half
Top seed Ricardas Berankis has successfully played a lot of tennis in the past couple of weeks and one has to imagine he is starting to feel tired. He might reach the semi-final solely based on how far above the rest of his opposition he will be skill wise, but it won’t be enough to beat Chung. Like Chung, let’s hope Berankis can settle down on the main tour for good now that he has increased his ranking close to the top 50 with a lot of Challenger tennis.
Bottom Half
Third seed Sam Groth has not returned well from foot surgery and is currently in very bad form. He is projected to meet Daniel Evans in the second round, who won a title last week, which will probably be the end of the road for Groth. Second seed John Millman is the favorite to come out of this half, but he has a very tricky draw, which might see him get upset prematurely. Millman faces Austin Krajicek in the first round, after which his projected path consists of respectively Sergiy Stakhovsky, Michael Berrer and Daniel Evans.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Chung d. Berankis
Millman d. Evans
Final:
Chung d. Millman
Open du Pays d’Aix-Trophee Caisse d’Epargne
ATP Challenger Tour
Aix en Provence, France
2-8 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €85,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Lukas Rosol (65)
2: Diego Schwartzman (87)
3: Rogerio Dutra Silva (101)
4: Stephane Robert (116)
5: Mischa Zverev (129)
6: Elias Ymer (132)
7: Daniel Brands (135)
8: Maximo Gonzalez (136)
The last direct acceptance is Tristan Lamasine, ranked 203rd. Former world #25 Julien Benneteau received a wildcard.
First round match-up to watch
Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Kimmer Coppejans
22-year-old Coppejans looked to be on the verge of breaking through many times, but can’t seem to make the step to main tour level. He cracked the top 100 almost a year ago, but has only regressed since, now being ranked 165th. He faces a tricky veteran in former world #35 Roger-Vasselin, who despite dropping to his current ranking of #190 is still a tough draw. However, if his ranking doesn’t improve soon he might retire from singles altogether and focus on his doubles career, where he is ranked 17th.
Top Half
Top seed Lukas Rosol might be by far the best ranked player in this half, you can’t call him by far the most likely to advance to the final. He hasn’t been in good form lately and there will be many tricky players on his path. Sixth seed Elias Ymer is his projected quarterfinal opponent and the 20-year-old is in good form, having won the Barletta Challenger two weeks ago. The same goes for Mischa Zverev, who comes off a tournament win at the Sarasota Challenger. Although it has to be said the green clay in the United States and the red clay here are a world of difference.
Bottom Half
Diego Schwartzman is the second seed, but I think it’s unlikely he will play here, having just won his first ATP title at Istanbul yesterday. Perhaps veteran fourth seed Stephane Robert can profit, being placed in a quarter with seventh seed Daniel Brands, who prefers faster courts. I would say Brands even is an underdog to get past his first round match against Renzo Olivo, who is likely to battle it out with Robert for a place in the semi-final. The winner of that match will be the favorite to reach the final as well.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Rosol d. Dutra Silva
Olivo d. Monteiro
Final:
Rosol d. Olivo
Karshi Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Karshi, Uzbekistan
2-7 May 2016
Hardcourt, Plexipave
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Dudi Sela (78)
2: Karen Khachanov (128)
3: Radu Albot (151)
4: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (197)
5: Amir Weintraub (198)
6: Denys Molchanov (224)
7: Dmitry Popko (230)
8: Aslan Karatsev (231)
The last direct acceptance is Ilya Ivashka, ranked 365th.
First round match-up to watch
(2) Karen Khachanov – Aleksandre Metreveli
Khachanov is really breaking through this year, currently ranked at a career high #128 after a great showing at the ATP 500 event of Barcelona. There he beat Aljaz Bedene, before adding an impressive top 20 victory over Roberto Bautista Agut to his résumé in the second round. Even though that was a clay event, he is equally as good on hardcourt and should be the clear favorite to reach the final here. There an interesting encounter with top seed Dudi Sela is projected, who won the Shenzhen Challenger last month and reached two other Challenger semi-finals.
Draw
I already gave away my expected final and it’s difficult to see another outcome, with Sela and Khachanov clearly being ahead of the rest of the field. This can also be seen in the rankings, with third seed Radu Albot ranked outside of the top 150, while fourth seed Aleksandr Nedovyesov is only barely ranked inside of the top 200.
Predictions
Semi-finals:
Sela d. Albot
Khachanov d. Nedovyesov
Final:
Khachanov d. Sela
Roma Garden Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Rome, Italy
2-7 May 2016
Red Clay
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Jiri Vesely (63)
2: Kyle Edmund (89)
3: Horacio Zeballos (91)
4: Adam Pavlasek (109)
5: Filip Krajinovic (110)
6: Jordan Thompson (118)
7: Kenny De Schepper (148)
8: Vincent Millot (149)
The last direct acceptance is Axel Michon, ranked 217th.
First round match-up to watch
(1) Jiri Vesely – Marsel Ilhan
Novak Djokovic will be relieved, one less thing to worry about in Madrid this week, as the man who took him out in Monte Carlo is playing a Challenger this week. Vesely is prioritizing this event over playing qualifying in Madrid, a decision certainly made before that legendary victory over the world number one. Vesely has been handed a good draw, with the players who could potentially threaten him being placed in the bottom half, so he is a big favorite to reach the final.
Top Half
As said, Vesely has a comfortable draw, being placed in a quarter with mostly players who don’t even have clay as their favorite surface. In the semi-final he is likely to faced third seed Horacio Zeballos or Adrian Ungur. Ungur faces fifth seed Filip Krajinovic in the first round, a rematch of their first round match in Istanbul last week, which Ungur comfortably won 6-3 6-3. Ungur then went on to massively threaten second seed and eventual runner-up Grigor Dimitrov in the second round, with the match ending 7-5 4-6 7-5.
Bottom Half
Second seed Kyle Edmund should be able to comfortably get through to at least the semi-final, where he is projected to face the in-form fourth seed Adam Pavlasek or sixth seed Jordan Thompson, who won the Anning Challenger last week. Pavlasek has already reached three Challenger finals this year, although he lost them all, one of which to Thompson in Cherbourg. Nevertheless, Edmund should be a decent favorite against either one of them.
2015 Orleans, Tiburon, Pereira, Agri, Rome and Porto Alegre Challenger Recaps
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Orleans
Jan-Lennard Struff’s ranking has taken a big hit in the past year. Just a year ago he was ranked inside of the top 50, while at the start of this tournament he found himself at #136. However, he would take a big step towards the top 100 at Orleans. He started off by very nearly beating fifth seed Ivan Dodig in the second round, 3-6 7-6(5) 6-2, after which he surprised by beating top seed Sergiy Stakhovsky without breaking a sweat, 6-4 6-2. Kenny De Schepper, who beat third seed Marsel Ilhan in the second round, couldn’t break Struff’s run either in the semi-final, 6-2 3-6 6-3.
In the bottom half the seeds held up better, with three of them making the quarterfinals. There eighth seed Iliya Marchenko beat fourth seed Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4 6-4, while second seed Jerzy Janowicz beat Franko Skugor 6-1 2-6 6-4. The semi-final was a tight affair, but Janowicz overcame Marchenko in three sets, 6-1 2-6 6-4. In the final Janowicz was up a set and a break twice, but eventually couldn’t stop Struff’s dream run, who took down his second Challenger title of the year and third overall. He made a big jump in the rankings, rising thirty-one spots to #105, while Janowicz improved seven spots to #61.
Tiburon
Fourth seed Dustin Brown took a big hit in the first round, falling 6-2 7-5 to qualifier Sekou Bangoura. There was a little bit of controversy in the beginning of the match, with Bangoura hitting a winner off his chest, which wasn’t seen by the umpire.
Bangoura couldn’t take his run further, as he fell in a third set tiebreak to wildcard Mackenzie McDonald, who in his turn had a lucky break against sixth seed Bjorn Fratangelo in the next round, who had to retire after losing the first four games due to a lower back injury. In the semi-final top seed Denis Kudla was just too strong, despite McDonald hitting the shot of the tournament early in the third set, 6-2 6-1 6-4.
In the bottom half second seed Kyle Edmund had an early first round exit against fellow Brit Brydan Klein, 6-4 6-1. Fifth seed Ryan Harrison fell to Marek Michalicka in the second round, 7-6(4) 4-6 6-3. In the following round third seed Tim Smyczek had no troubles with Michalicka, 6-3 6-1, after which he came up with the exact same scoreline to beat Quentin Halys for a place in the final. There an absolutely spectacular encounter between Smyczek and Kudla followed, with Smyczek saving four match points during his 1-6 6-1 7-6(7) triumph. Smyczek moved back into the top 100 with his second Challenger title of the year and his fifth overall, rising fourteen spots to #98. Kudla rose six spots to a career high ranking of #67.
Pereira
Top seed Paolo Lorenzi was the only top 100 player in the draw and expected to win here, with second seed Joao Souza in a big slump and fourth seed Alejandro Falla uncomfortable on clay. Lorenzi cruised through the draw, beating fifth seed Guilherme Clezar 6-4 6-2 in the quarterfinal and Marcelo Arevalo, who beat Falla in the second round, 6-1 6-3 in the semi-final to reach the final without dropping a set.
In the bottom half Souza and Gonzalez managed to get through to the semi-final, although Souza showed the confidence in his game is still low, needing three sets on two occasions against much lower-ranked opponents. Gonzalez took advantage of his slump, beating him 6-2 6-7(4) 6-3 to reach the final. There another long match followed, but Lorenzi managed to come out on top this time, 6-2 6-7(4) 6-3. It’s the third Challenger title of the year and fifteenth overall for the 33-year-old Italian. The win saw him rise three ranking spots to #83, while Gonzalez rose twelve spots to #110.
Second seed Malek Jaziri withdrew citing an ankle injury, keeping up his acting performance from last week, when he retired alongside Denys Molchanov while 8-9 down in the supertiebreak of the Izmir Challenger final. The retirement was solely because they had a bet on themselves to win, which would be voided with a retirement. In Agri it resulted in a very ironic situation where Jaziri’s accomplice of last week, Molchanov, took advantage of the draw opening up because of the withdrawal, with him beating Dennis Novak 7-6(4) 6-2 for a place in the semi-final. There eighth seed Saketh Myneni was just too strong, 6-3 3-6 7-6(1).
In the top half fifth seed Konstantin Kravchuk managed to oust top seed Ruben Bemelmans in the quarterfinal, 6-3 6-4. In the semi-final sixth seed Farrukh Dustov was too strong, however, 7-6(4) 6-2, meaning Dustov reached the final without dropping a set. He kept it up in the final, beating Myneni 6-4 6-4 to win his second Challenger title of the year and fifth overall. He rose twenty-four ranking spots to #129, while Myneni rose thirty spots to a career high ranking of #168.
World no.153 Farrukh Dustov wins the inaugural Agri Challenger beating Saketh Myneni 6-4, 6-4 in the final. #AgriCHpic.twitter.com/SywXKrH3Gm
A strong line-up arrived in Rome, with five players ranked inside of the top 100 competing. Second seed Daniel Gimeno-Traver was the only one of them to lose before the quarterfinal, falling 6-3 5-7 6-3 to Thiemo de Bakker in the second round. Top seed Federico Delbonis beat eighth seed Albert Montanes 7-5 6-1 in the quarterfinal, after which he ousted third seed Dusan Lajovic as well in the following round, although it was a much harder encounter, 7-6(8) 7-6(5).
In the bottom half fifth seed Filip Krajinovic beat De Bakker 6-1 6-3 for a place in the semi-final, where fourth seed Marco Cecchinato awaited, who beat sixth seed Inigo Cervantes 6-1 6-4. After a tight two-set encounter Krajinovic advanced to the final, beating Cecchinato 7-5 6-4. In the final Delbonis was too strong eventually, beating Krajinovic 1-6 6-3 6-4 to claim his third Challenger title of the year and his seventh overall, posting a perfect 3-0 record in finals this year. His ranking improved ten spots, landing at #57. Krajinovic rose eleven spots to #87, just one spot shy of his career high ranking of #86.
Porto Alegre
Top seed Diego Schwartzman managed to reach the final, but it was far from easy. In the quarterfinal eighth seed Maximo Gonzalez took him to 6-1 1-6 7-5, after which fourth seed Carlos Berlocq made it even closer in the semi-final, 3-6 6-3 7-6(0). In the bottom half Rogerio Dutra Silva kept up his remarkable run of form, beating third seed Kimmer Coppejans 6-2 6-4 in the second round, after which he followed it up with a win over fifth seed Facundo Arguello, 2-6 6-4 6-4. Second seed Guido Pella was too strong in the semi-final, however, beating the Brazilian 6-1 5-7 6-1.
The final was won by Pella as well, after an excellent 6-3 7-6(5) victory over Schwartzman. It’s Pella’s third Challenger title of the year, racking up a 3-1 record in finals this year and a very impressive 9-2 overall. He rose seventeen ranking spots to #77, just two shy of his career high ranking. Schwartzman rose five spots to #72.
2015 Busan, Aix en Provence, Cali, Karshi and Rome Challenger Previews & Predictions Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
Busan Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Busan, South Korea
4-10 May 2015
Hardcourt, Rebound Ace
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Yen-Hsun Lu (67)
2: Sam Groth (85)
3: Go Soeda (87)
4: Hyeon Chung (88)
5: Dudi Sela (90)
6: Tatsuma Ito (97)
7: Lukas Lacko (99)
8: Ryan Harrison (122)
The last direct acceptance is Takuto Niki, ranked 283rd. Ryan Harrison withdrew due to the ankle injury he attracted last week.
Second round match-up to watch
Denis Kudla
(4) Hyeon Chung – Denis Kudla
Chung cracked the top 100 for the first time after winning the Savannah Challenger two weeks ago and now faces an interesting opponent in Kudla here. Kudla seemed to be heading the same direction as Chung, but has shown to lack consistency after beating Viktor Troicki and taking world #14 Feliciano Lopez to 8-10 in the decider at the Australian Open to start off the year. He is now closer to dropping out of the top 150 than reaching the top 100.
Top Half
Just a year ago, top seed Yen-Hsun Lu would have been the overwhelming favorite here. But after his surprising loss last week and the rise of some other players, he might be ‘just’ one of the contenders. It isn’t unreasonable to put Chung up as the slight favorite, followed by Lu and with Dudi Sela closely behind the two. Tatsuma Ito and Grega Zemlja can be seen as outsiders.
Bottom Half
The top section seems to be a clear prey for Go Soeda, especially with the seed here getting replaced by a qualifier after Harrison’s withdrawal. However, he faces a tricky second round opponent in John-Patrick Smith, who is playing the best tennis of his career. The bottom section is very interesting, with two titlists of last week being there, Franko Skugor and Sam Groth. Groth might be able to keep his good run going, while that is very doubtful in Skugor’s case. Also in this section are Lukas Lacko, Luke Saville and Iliya Marchenko, who could all very well cause surprises and upset a tired Groth. Although we should remember that this is the venue where Groth hit the unofficial fastest serve of all time three years ago.
Predictions
Semis:
Chung d. Lu
Groth d. Soeda
Final:
Groth d. Chung
Open du Pays d’Aix
ATP Challenger Tour
Aix en Provence, France
2-10 May 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: €64,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Blaz Kavcic (77)
2: Malek Jaziri (84)
3: Lucas Pouille (95)
4: Robin Haase (101)
5: Filip Krajinovic (104)
6: Norbert Gombos (111)
7: Andrey Golubev (117)
8: Alexander Zverev (119)
The last direct acceptance is Mathias Bourgue, ranked 214th. Former world #18 Florian Mayer received a wild card.
First round match-ups to watch
(6) Norbert Gombos – (WC) Florian Mayer
Tough break for Gombos, as he isn’t the favorite to win his first round match, despite being seeded. Mayer has already shown decent tennis after coming back from his one year injury lay-off, almost taking out world #10 Marin Cilic in the second round of Monte Carlo, falling 6-3 in the third set. It certainly is nice to have the jumping backhand dropshots back on tour again.
(7) Andrey Golubev – Aleksandr Nedovyesov
An interesting match-up between two players with similar high risk playing styles. Put them together and they can work wonders, as they showed by beating Federer and Wawrinka in doubles at their Davis Cup meeting last year, but on their own it’s a struggle. Golubev is 3-9 on the main tour this year, while Nedovyesov has failed to impress since reaching the Bergamo final in early February.
Top Half
This appears to be a fine draw for Alexander Zverev to make a deep run. The 17-year-old has a kind draw with Michal Przysiezny in the first round and a wildcard or qualifier in the second, while his potential quarterfinal opponent #3 seed Lucas Pouille comes off a disappointing loss last week and might be a bit more vulnerable here. In the top half it’s perhaps last week’s Ostrava winner Inigo Cervantes who has the best shot, being surrounded with players who are not that fond of clay, but for someone who is not used to perform two weeks in a row this might be a bit too much. This might be a good opportunity for Gastao Elias to pick up some form and make a deep run.
Bottom Half
A rare occurence, but I’m picking the wildcard as the favorite here. Florian Mayer should be able to fend off the rest of the contenders here, with unseeded Albert Montanes perhaps being his main competitor. The two are projected to meet in the quarterfinal of the bottom section. From the top section Robin Haase should be able to come through, despite him being capable of losing to a wide variety of players these days.
Predictions
Semis:
Zverev d. Elias
Mayer d. Haase
Final:
Mayer d. Zverev
Seguros Bolivar Open
ATP Challenger Tour
Cali, Colombia
4-10 May 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Blaz Rola (93)
2: Niels Desein (161)
3: Chase Buchanan (163)
4: Nicolas Jarry (189)
5: Guido Andreozzi (204)
6: Christian Lindell (222)
7: Juan Ignacio Londero (235)
8: Jose Hernandez-Fernandez (240)
The last direct acceptance is Ryusei Makiguchi, ranked 502nd.
First round match-up to watch
(6) Christian Lindell – Nicolas Barrientos
The two played a very close match last year in Italy, with Lindell taking it 6-4 in the third set. After Lindell’s final run last week and with Barrientos playing in his home country, there might be an upset in the making here.
Top Half
Top seed Blaz Rola is by far the highest ranked player here and it’s hard to look past him. Second seed Niels Desein is ranked sixty-eight spots below him, which is a lot. If Rola fails to reach the final here it would be a huge disappointment, since every loss is an upset. If I had to pick one player capable of pulling it off it would be #7 seed Juan Ignacio Londero, who is projected to meet Rola in the quarterfinal.
Bottom Half
Nicolas Jarry’s form has not been convincing lately, but this is a golden opportunity for him to gain momentum and a lot of ranking points. The only player who should be able to threaten him is #5 seed Guido Andreozzi in the semi-final, which is likely to be a close match. #2 seed Niels Desein is not a fan of clay and has had some bad losses on the surface as of late, making it unlikely he will be able to live up to his seeding.
Predictions
Semis:
Rola d. Lindell
Jarry d. Andreozzi
Final:
Rola d. Jarry
Karshi Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Karshi, Uzbekistan
4-9 May 2015
Hard, Plexipave
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Teymuraz Gabashvili (100)
2: Farrukh Dustov (108)
3: Adrian Menendez-Maceiras (118)
4: Aslan Karatsev (166)
5: Evgeny Donskoy (196)
6: Ti Chen (203)
7: Brydan Klein (205)
8: Yuki Bhambri (216)
The last direct acceptance is Vladimir Ivanov, ranked 424th.
First round match-ups to watch
(6) Ti Chen – Matthew Ebden
Tough draw for the seed, with Ebden seeming to pick up some good form in his last two tournaments, reaching a quarter- and semi-final. If he plays to those standards, he should be able to beat Chen and make another deep run.
(5) Evgeny Donskoy – Ramkumar Ramanathan
Former world #63 Donskoy is sinking deeper and deeper, now even disappearing out of the top 200. Granted, Ramanathan’s development seems to be stagnating a bit and his results have been lacking, but against this Donskoy anything is possible.
Top Half
Top seed Teymuraz Gabashvili is playing his first hardcourt event after a respectable clay court stretch. The scheduling is a bit remarkable, giving that Roland Garros is around the corner, but he is probably looking to pick up some easy points. This should be doable, but he has a very dangerous quarterfinal opponent in Yuki Bhambri, who I think should be able to surprise Gabashvili, who will be lacking hardcourt rhythm. The two of them are very likely to decide the finalist from this half.
Bottom Half
Adrian Menendez-Maceiras has been playing the tennis of his career at the ripe age of 29 and is showing no signs of slowing down. He could very well rack up another final here, with fellow seeds Donskoy and Chen very uncertain to perform well, while #2 seed Farrukh Dustov is already out by the time I am writing this, making him a pretty strong favorite to do so.
Predictions
Semis:
Bhambri d. Karatsev
Menendez-Maceiras d. Ebden
Final:
Bhambri d. Menendez-Maceiras
Garden Open 2015
ATP Challenger Tour
Rome, Italy
4-9 May 2015
Red Clay
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Aljaz Bedene (91)
2: Dustin Brown (102)
3: Radek Stepanek (120)
4: Kyle Edmund (130)
5: Marco Cecchinato (150)
6: Taro Daniel (164)
7: Konstantin Kravchuk (167)
8: Elias Ymer (171)
The last direct acceptance is Miroslav Mecir, ranked 216th. Russian sensation Andrey Rublev received a wildcard.
First round match-up to watch
(6) Taro Daniel – Gerald Melzer
This is bound to be a great match. Melzer lucked out at Munich last week, getting a bye into the second round as a qualifier, where Pablo Andujar retired against him in the first set. However, he showed he was deserving of that luck by beating world #44 Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinal, before falling to #26 Philipp Kohlschreiber in the semi-final after a long battle, 2-6 6-1 6-4. Daniel comes off a tournament win at Vercelli, so he is well at home on the Italian clay. They faced each other twice last year, splitting the matches, both in straight sets.
Top Half
Top seed Aljaz Bedene has not been convincing on clay so far, so it’s hard to make him the clear cut favorite. One of Melzer or Daniel should be able to beat him in the quarterfinal, for instance. The finalist is likely to be one of those three, however, with the bottom section (headed by #4 seed Kyle Edmund) being considerably weaker.
Bottom Half
17-year-old Andrey Rublev has shown he can hang at ATP level after beating three top 100 players in just as many events, so he might well be able to continue that good run here. He is projected to face Marco Cecchinato, last week’s Turin winner, and Radek Stepanek, but names like that shouldn’t frighten him and he might even be the favorite against both men. The bottom section is headed by the always unpredictable Dustin Brown, who might find another youngster on his path to the semi-final, 18-year-old Elias Ymer.
2014 ATP Clay Court Season In Review Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
In review: The 2014 ATP Clay Court Season
After Kitzbuhel concluded last week, the clay court calendar portion of the 2014 ATP season came to an end. With that conclusion, we can now review which players performed the best, and which players underachieved on the dirt this season. Clay courts comprise a large portion of the ATP calendar so there is a much larger sample size to draw from compared to, say, the grass court season.
27 year old journeyman Argentine Leonardo Mayer has transformed himself into a top 30 player this season and his best results have come on clay. He posted 18 wins on the surface compared to just 10 losses this season at the ATP level and scored wins over household names David Ferrer, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Joao Sousa and Tommy Robredo on the surface; he also pushed top 6 player Tomas Berdych to three sets in Oeiras.
He reached his first career final in Vina Del Mar, but fell short against Fabio Fognini there, and he finally got his maiden title in Hamburg over Ferrer in 3 sets. Winning that final set tiebreak ended a long journey to the top 30 for Leo and he remains an under recognized and underappreciated Argentine player. With Del Potro perpetually injured and Nalbandian now retired, Argentine will have to look to the likes of Mayer to carry Davis Cup and national hopes for a while. He reached the third round of the French Open and had quarterfinal appearances in both Oeiras and Nice to round out his best results on clay for 2014.
Honorable mentions for clay court surprise: Carlos Berlocq, Santiago Giraldo, Kei Nishikori, Roberto Bautista Agut
Carlos Berlocq joins his countryman Mayer as a surprising player this season. He won an ATP title for the second year in a row, this time coming in Oeiras where he upset and outlasted Tomas Berdych. The loud and flamboyant dirtballer also posted quarterfinals in Nice and a semifinal in Bastad to compliment his win in Oeiras. This highlights an overall 16-9 record on clay at the ATP level for 2014. He tends to get overmatched in the masters level and grand slam events but against a 250 level field he often flourishes. Notable opponents he defeated this year on clay include Andreas Seppi, Milos Raonic, Ferrer and Lleyton Hewitt at the French, along with the aforementioned Berdych.
Santiago Giraldo, a shotmaking Colombian with a huge forehand, has also had some of the best success of his career this season. He went 19-11 on clay and though he did not win a title, he reached the final in Barcelona, his second career final, along with semis in Houston and Vina Del Mar, and a pair of quarterfinals in Madrid and Stuttgart. Giraldo beat top players Tommy Robredo, Andy Murray, Nicolas Almagro, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga this season. Giraldo joins Mayer as a first time top 30 player after success on clay.
Kei Nishikori had an underappreciated clay court season this year, partially due to the fact that he had to battle injuries during that portion of the season, He played just three tournaments but posted a 10-2 record in them with a title in Barcelona and a final in Madrid, where he took a set off Nadal but had to retire during the third set of the match. He had top tier wins over Roberto Bautista Agut, Marin Cilic, Ferrer, Ernests Gulbis, and Raonic among his 10 overall and should he be able to stay healthy he has shown himself to be a threat on clay.
Bautista Agut is the last player I’ll discuss. He went 12-5 on clay and won his first title on the surface in Stuttgart over Lukas Rosol. Success on clay has helped him reach the top 20 for the first time in his career and he beat Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, and Fognini this year on the surface. RBA doesn’t play prototypical Spanish tennis but he’s still a top performing Spaniard on red clay.
Biggest upset: ATP Barcelona quarterfinals: Nicolas Almagro d. Rafael Nadal 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4
The powerful Spaniard Almagro had been outclassed by his much more successful countryman Nadal eight previous times on clay. Finally, Nico was able to get a victory against perhaps the greatest clay courter of all time. The first set was a routine affair, but Almagro fought back hard and Rafa played poorly, resulting in Nadal’s first loss on clay after winning the first set in over six years. Nadal had his chances to close out the match in the second, and didn’t face break points himself, but he couldn’t convert and the tiebreak went against him, giving Almagro an opening he took advantage of by winning a decisive fifth and final break in the third set to seal the victory. Nadal struggled to win his service points, and at the time, many were deeply worried about how he was playing going into the French Open. The fact Rafa did win the French perhaps makes this victory by Almagro look even more improbable and top quality, given Rafa showed his career wasn’t in serious decline yet.
Clay court breakthroughs: Dominic Thiem, Alex Zverev and Dusan Lajovic
A trio of young players found maiden ATP success on clay, while new Austrian number one Dominic Thiem was a mere 12-8 on clay at the ATP level. He went 4-0 in qualifying matches on the surface and won multiple main draw matches in Barcelona, Madrid and Hamburg. He finally reached his first career ATP final on home soil in Kitzbuhel and appears very close to his first career ATP title. Thiem had notable wins over Radek Stepanek and Stan Wawrinka this year on clay.
Alex Zverev, a teenager, notably made the semifinals in Hamburg, a one off showing but clearly a sign of things to come for the young German. Zverev had wins over Mikhail Youzhny and Giraldo en route. I have a feeling Thiem vs. Zverev may develop into a clay court rivalry in the future. Both players have things to work on but we could have a Germany vs. Austria French Open final come 2018 or beyond.
Dusan Lajovic established himself as a top 70 player with a strong clay court season. He also established himself as the Serbian number 2 behind Djokovic and should feature on their Davis Cup team for quite some time. He went 14-11 in both ATP main draw action and qualifying on clay this season and along with quarters in Hamburg and Bastad, he reached the round of 16 at the French Open, his best ever result in a major. He didn’t beat many top names this season but he still proved he can grind out matches to increase his ranking.
Clay Court Disappointments: Tommy Robredo, Stan Wawrinka, Gilles Simon, Joao Sousa and Andreas Seppi
The well-liked veteran Spaniard Robredo went just 15-12 this year on clay after going a tremendous 25-10 on the surface in 2013. His age may finally be catching up with him as he reached just one final, one semi and one quarterfinal this season along with posting seven early round exits. Once he finishes this season he will have a lot to think about going into to 2015.
Wawrinka did not have a terrible clay court season, but he underachieved after high expectations were placed on him after winning his first grand slam in Australia at the start of the year. He won Monte Carlo, but that was the only highlight of his 6-3 clay court season. He had a trio of surprising early exits in Madrid, Rome and the French Open, and next season he will have much to gain during the clay court portion of the year. He posted a 43-17 record on clay over the previous two seasons before this one and has the ability to do much better than he did in 2014.
Veteran Frenchman Gilles Simon has struggled to stay healthy in 2014 and he had a disappointing clay court season that has contributed to his fall from the top 30. He won consecutive matches in a clay court tournament just twice this season and failed to beat any players ranked above him on the surface. He also had bad losses to Teymuraz Gabashvili, Lukasz Kubot and Pablo Andujar. He was a subpar 8-9 on the surface overall in 2014. ‘
After a breakthrough 2013, top Portugese player Joao Sousa was a disappointing 7-13 on clay in 2014, struggling against ATP level competition on the surface. He reached one quarterfinal and one final but suffered ten opening match exits and eleven early round exists overall with multiple losses to players ranked below him. Sousa will need to improve considerably and adjust his game if he hopes to be more successful on clay in the future.
After struggling on clay in 2013, Italian veteran Andreas Seppi did so again in 2014. He is just 18-22 on the surface over the past two seasons and was 11-12 this season. He failed to reach a semifinal in any clay court tournament this year.
First time winners: Federico Delbonis, David Goffin and Pablo Cuevas
23 year old Argentine Federico Delbonis won his maiden title in Sao Paulo and has been successful on clay overall this season, posting an 18-13 ATP record. He later made a final in Nice, semifinals in Casablanca and a quarterfinal in Stuttgart to complement his Sao Paulo victory. Delbonis also showed his prowess on the red stuff last season when he reached the final in Hamburg and he should be a name to watch in many clay court tournaments to come.
David Goffin snagged a maiden title in Kitzbuhel at the tail end of the clay court season after getting red hot on the ATP Challenger Tour prior. Goffin, who had that run to the fourth round as a qualifier at the 2012 French Open, and has seen his once promising career fade from the spotlight since then, returned to the challenger tour to find his game and hopefully he will be able to keep himself at the ATP level this time. Goffin is undersized and many players were able to hit him off the court at the top level but perhaps he has rediscovered a path to success for himself given the limitations of his physical stature.
Lastly, Pablo Cuevas, who has overcome multiple knee and shoulder injuries and built his ranking back up to ATP status from the challenger tour, won his maiden title at 28 years old in Bastad, then followed it up with a title in Umag a couple of weeks later. Cuevas makes his living on clay and has been rapidly improving as of late. He pushed Fernando Verdasco to five sets at the French Open and has wins over Robredo, Fognini, Seppi, Sousa, and Verdasco this season. Cuevas’ rise is a testament to his tenacity and the work he has put into his game.
