Tennis Atlantic

2015 Busan, Aix en Provence, Cali, Karshi and Rome Challenger Previews & Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic

 

Busan Open

ATP Challenger Tour

Busan, South Korea

4-10 May 2015

Hardcourt, Rebound Ace

Prize Money: $100,000

 

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Yen-Hsun Lu (67)

2: Sam Groth (85)

3: Go Soeda (87)

4: Hyeon Chung (88)

5: Dudi Sela (90)

6: Tatsuma Ito (97)

7: Lukas Lacko (99)

8: Ryan Harrison (122)

The last direct acceptance is Takuto Niki, ranked 283rd. Ryan Harrison withdrew due to the ankle injury he attracted last week.

Second round match-up to watch 

(4) Hyeon Chung – Denis Kudla 

Chung cracked the top 100 for the first time after winning the Savannah Challenger two weeks ago and now faces an interesting opponent in Kudla here. Kudla seemed to be heading the same direction as Chung, but has shown to lack consistency after beating Viktor Troicki and taking world #14 Feliciano Lopez to 8-10 in the decider at the Australian Open to start off the year. He is now closer to dropping out of the top 150 than reaching the top 100.

Top Half

Just a year ago, top seed Yen-Hsun Lu would have been the overwhelming favorite here. But after his surprising loss last week and the rise of some other players, he might be ‘just’ one of the contenders. It isn’t unreasonable to put Chung up as the slight favorite, followed by Lu and with Dudi Sela closely behind the two. Tatsuma Ito and Grega Zemlja can be seen as outsiders.

Bottom Half

The top section seems to be a clear prey for Go Soeda, especially with the seed here getting replaced by a qualifier after Harrison’s withdrawal. However, he faces a tricky second round opponent in John-Patrick Smith, who is playing the best tennis of his career. The bottom section is very interesting, with two titlists of last week being there, Franko Skugor and Sam Groth. Groth might be able to keep his good run going, while that is very doubtful in Skugor’s case. Also in this section are Lukas Lacko, Luke Saville and Iliya Marchenko, who could all very well cause surprises and upset a tired Groth. Although we should remember that this is the venue where Groth hit the unofficial fastest serve of all time three years ago.

Predictions

Semis:

Chung d. Lu

Groth d. Soeda

Final:

Groth d. Chung

 

Open du Pays d’Aix

 ATP Challenger Tour

Aix en Provence, France

2-10 May 2015

Red Clay

Prize Money: €64,000

 

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Blaz Kavcic (77)

2: Malek Jaziri (84)

3: Lucas Pouille (95)

4: Robin Haase (101)

5: Filip Krajinovic (104)

6: Norbert Gombos (111)

7: Andrey Golubev (117)

8: Alexander Zverev (119)

 

The last direct acceptance is Mathias Bourgue, ranked 214th. Former world #18 Florian Mayer received a wild card.

First round match-ups to watch 

(6) Norbert Gombos – (WC) Florian Mayer

Tough break for Gombos, as he isn’t the favorite to win his first round match, despite being seeded. Mayer has already shown decent tennis after coming back from his one year injury lay-off, almost taking out world #10 Marin Cilic in the second round of Monte Carlo, falling 6-3 in the third set. It certainly is nice to have the jumping backhand dropshots back on tour again.

 (7) Andrey Golubev – Aleksandr Nedovyesov

An interesting match-up between two players with similar high risk playing styles. Put them together and they can work wonders, as they showed by beating Federer and Wawrinka in doubles at their Davis Cup meeting last year, but on their own it’s a struggle. Golubev is 3-9 on the main tour this year, while Nedovyesov has failed to impress since reaching the Bergamo final in early February.

Top Half

 This appears to be a fine draw for Alexander Zverev to make a deep run. The 17-year-old has a kind draw with Michal Przysiezny in the first round and a wildcard or qualifier in the second, while his potential quarterfinal opponent #3 seed Lucas Pouille comes off a disappointing loss last week and might be a bit more vulnerable here. In the top half it’s perhaps last week’s Ostrava winner Inigo Cervantes who has the best shot, being surrounded with players who are not that fond of clay, but for someone who is not used to perform two weeks in a row this might be a bit too much. This might be a good opportunity for Gastao Elias to pick up some form and make a deep run.

Bottom Half

 A rare occurence, but I’m picking the wildcard as the favorite here. Florian Mayer should be able to fend off the rest of the contenders here, with unseeded Albert Montanes perhaps being his main competitor. The two are projected to meet in the quarterfinal of the bottom section. From the top section Robin Haase should be able to come through, despite him being capable of losing to a wide variety of players these days.

Predictions

Semis:

Zverev d. Elias

Mayer d. Haase

 Final:

Mayer d. Zverev

 

Seguros Bolivar Open

 ATP Challenger Tour

Cali, Colombia

4-10 May 2015

Red Clay

Prize Money: $50,000

 

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

 

1: Blaz Rola (93)

2: Niels Desein (161)

3: Chase Buchanan (163)

4: Nicolas Jarry (189)

5: Guido Andreozzi (204)

6: Christian Lindell (222)

7: Juan Ignacio Londero (235)

8: Jose Hernandez-Fernandez (240)

 

The last direct acceptance is Ryusei Makiguchi, ranked 502nd.

First round match-up to watch

(6) Christian Lindell – Nicolas Barrientos

The two played a very close match last year in Italy, with Lindell taking it 6-4 in the third set. After Lindell’s final run last week and with Barrientos playing in his home country, there might be an upset in the making here.

 

Top Half

 Top seed Blaz Rola is by far the highest ranked player here and it’s hard to look past him. Second seed Niels Desein is ranked sixty-eight spots below him, which is a lot. If Rola fails to reach the final here it would be a huge disappointment, since every loss is an upset. If I had to pick one player capable of pulling it off it would be #7 seed Juan Ignacio Londero, who is projected to meet Rola in the quarterfinal.

Bottom Half

 Nicolas Jarry’s form has not been convincing lately, but this is a golden opportunity for him to gain momentum and a lot of ranking points. The only player who should be able to threaten him is #5 seed Guido Andreozzi in the semi-final, which is likely to be a close match. #2 seed Niels Desein is not a fan of clay and has had some bad losses on the surface as of late, making it unlikely he will be able to live up to his seeding.

Predictions 

Semis:

Rola d. Lindell

Jarry d. Andreozzi

 Final:

Rola d. Jarry

 

Karshi Challenger

 ATP Challenger Tour

Karshi, Uzbekistan

4-9 May 2015

Hard, Plexipave

Prize Money: $50,000

 

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

 

1: Teymuraz Gabashvili (100)

2: Farrukh Dustov (108)

3: Adrian Menendez-Maceiras (118)

4: Aslan Karatsev (166)

5: Evgeny Donskoy (196)

6: Ti Chen (203)

7: Brydan Klein (205)

8: Yuki Bhambri (216)

The last direct acceptance is Vladimir Ivanov, ranked 424th.

First round match-ups to watch

(6) Ti Chen – Matthew Ebden

Tough draw for the seed, with Ebden seeming to pick up some good form in his last two tournaments, reaching a quarter- and semi-final. If he plays to those standards, he should be able to beat Chen and make another deep run.

 (5) Evgeny Donskoy – Ramkumar Ramanathan

Former world #63 Donskoy is sinking deeper and deeper, now even disappearing out of the top 200. Granted, Ramanathan’s development seems to be stagnating a bit and his results have been lacking, but against this Donskoy anything is possible.

Top Half

 Top seed Teymuraz Gabashvili is playing his first hardcourt event after a respectable clay court stretch. The scheduling is a bit remarkable, giving that Roland Garros is around the corner, but he is probably looking to pick up some easy points. This should be doable, but he has a very dangerous quarterfinal opponent in Yuki Bhambri, who I think should be able to surprise Gabashvili, who will be lacking hardcourt rhythm. The two of them are very likely to decide the finalist from this half.

Bottom Half

 Adrian Menendez-Maceiras has been playing the tennis of his career at the ripe age of 29 and is showing no signs of slowing down. He could very well rack up another final here, with fellow seeds Donskoy and Chen very uncertain to perform well, while #2 seed Farrukh Dustov is already out by the time I am writing this, making him a pretty strong favorite to do so.

Predictions

 Semis:

Bhambri d. Karatsev

Menendez-Maceiras d. Ebden

Final:

Bhambri d. Menendez-Maceiras

 

Garden Open 2015

 ATP Challenger Tour

Rome, Italy

4-9 May 2015

Red Clay

Prize Money: €42,500

 

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Aljaz Bedene (91)

2: Dustin Brown (102)

3: Radek Stepanek (120)

4: Kyle Edmund (130)

5: Marco Cecchinato (150)

6: Taro Daniel (164)

7: Konstantin Kravchuk (167)

8: Elias Ymer (171)

 

The last direct acceptance is Miroslav Mecir, ranked 216th. Russian sensation Andrey Rublev received a wildcard.

First round match-up to watch

(6) Taro Daniel – Gerald Melzer

This is bound to be a great match. Melzer lucked out at Munich last week, getting a bye into the second round as a qualifier, where Pablo Andujar retired against him in the first set. However, he showed he was deserving of that luck by beating world #44 Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinal, before falling to #26 Philipp Kohlschreiber in the semi-final after a long battle, 2-6 6-1 6-4. Daniel comes off a tournament win at Vercelli, so he is well at home on the Italian clay. They faced each other twice last year, splitting the matches, both in straight sets.

 

Top Half

Top seed Aljaz Bedene has not been convincing on clay so far, so it’s hard to make him the clear cut favorite. One of Melzer or Daniel should be able to beat him in the quarterfinal, for instance. The finalist is likely to be one of those three, however, with the bottom section (headed by #4 seed Kyle Edmund) being considerably weaker.

 

Bottom Half

17-year-old Andrey Rublev has shown he can hang at ATP level after beating three top 100 players in just as many events, so he might well be able to continue that good run here. He is projected to face Marco Cecchinato, last week’s Turin winner, and Radek Stepanek, but names like that shouldn’t frighten him and he might even be the favorite against both men. The bottom section is headed by the always unpredictable Dustin Brown, who might find another youngster on his path to the semi-final, 18-year-old Elias Ymer.

Predictions

Semis:

Melzer d. Edmund

Rublev d. Ymer

Final:

Rublev d. Melzer