Tennis Atlantic

2012 French Open Week 1 Men’s Preview
By Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
Roland Garros
Grand Slam
Paris, France
May 27-June 6 2012
Prize Money: €6,555,000

 
It is finally time for the pinnacle of the clay court season, the French Open, which kicks off Sunday in Paris and will run for a full 2  weeks that will certainly be full of thrilling tennis action from shocking upsets to dynamic winners, 5 set battles and rowdy French fans. Players like Rafa return to try and continue their dominance, while others seek to make a name for themselves in the biggest clay court event of the year.
 
Top 8 seeds
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Rafael Nadal (defending champ)
3: Roger Federer (last year’s finalist)
4: Andy Murray
5: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
6: David Ferrer
7: Tomas Berdych
8: Janko Tipsarevic
 
The only notable players missing in the field are Kei Nishikori and French favorite Gael Monfils, both of whom withdrew with injury. Monfils had been struggling recently but he always brought a certain flair and spark to Chatrier and will be missed. Who can forget this epic match in the dark with Fabio Fognini?

 
 
1st round matchups to watch:
 
Blaz Kavic vs. (wc) Lleyton Hewitt
 
Rusty will make his return to the Tennis tour after yet another bout with injury and a brisk recovery against the Slovenian Blaz Kavic. If Hewitt can advance, he could get a rematch with the man he took to an epic 4 sets at the Aussie Open, Novak Djokovic.
 
(22) Andreas Seppi vs. Nikolay Davydenko
 
Davydenko has shocked most everyone reaching the Nice semifinals this week. He has already upset Isner and is still in the running for the title.  Seppi has had some fine results himself, most recently reaching the quarterfinals of ATP Rome and winning the ATP Belgrade title. Those fine performances have rocketed him into the top 25 and clay is his favorite surface. Should be an interesting matchup. 
 
(wc) Brian Baker vs. Xaiver Malisse
 
In a compelling human interest story, Brian Baker, a former American top prospect who suffered numerous bouts with injury including multiple hip surgeries and was forced to retire from the tour a few years ago, has made a stunning return. That return saw him tear up the challenger circuit to earn the USTA wild card for the French Open and now reach the Nice semi-finals where he is still competing for the title. He knocked off Gael Monfils to get there. Malisse is a veteran himself and it should be interesting to watch these guys push themselves. The winner likely faces French favorite Gilles Simon.
 
(26) Andy Roddick vs. Nicolas Mahut
 
Roddick has been struggling as of late, losing a couple of matches in the World Team cup in Dusseldorf, his first matches on clay of the year (he last played in Miami where he knocked off Federer before losing to Juan Monaco). While he is ranked higher than Mahut, Mahut has to be given at least a puncher’s chance, considering he knows the surface and has had more playing time.
 
Benoit Paire vs. Albert Ramos
 
Paire, who was a finalist in Belgrade and is a home favorite Frenchmen will take on Ramos, who was a finalist in Casablanca. It should be a rowdy match-up between dirt ballers and the winner likely gets David Ferrer in a tough match-up.
 
Bjorn Phau vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
 
Phau and Mathieu are both wily veterans hoping for a career renaissance and while neither has made too much noise as of late Mathieu, should have an eager crowd behind him.
 
Donald Young vs. Grigor Dimitrov
 
In a battle of the former phenom vs the still somewhat current phenom, a subliminally slumping Donald Young will try to pull it together for a match against the tricky Dimitrov. Young hasn’t won a match since Memphis in February, but that match was oddly enough against Dimitrov, albeit on a different surface. Dimitrov hasn’t done much himself and has mostly been lurking around the challenger  circuit.
 
Santiago Giraldo vs. Alejandro Falla
 
In a battle of countrymen, the Colombian dirtballers Falla and Giraldo will duke it out.  Giraldo is ranked higher (by 1 spot) and both players have had similar results recently.
 
Juan Ignacio Chela vs. Marcos Baghdatis
 
In another match-up of veterans, Chela, who hasn’t won a match since Acapulco in February, will take on Baghdatis. Though Baghdatis is higher ranked, he is still trying to pull things together.  
 
Igor Kunitsyn vs. Denis Istomin
 
Kunitsyn, another veteran who is ranked just outside the top 100 and has been playing challengers recently, seeks to knock off top 50 player Istomin in a battle of the Russians.  The winner likely faces Rafa.
 

Now to preview the 1st week of the French Open.  This preview will split into 2 parts the 1st with week 1 predictions and early round previews and the 2nd with week 2 predictions and late round previews coming Saturday. 
 
Djokovic’s quarter:
 
Top seed Novak Djokovic, who recently changed clothing sponsors if you haven’t heard, starts off with  Italian Potito “Potato Starch” Starace before a possible Aussie open rematch with the always dangerous Hewitt. If he gets through that, he will face either 30 seed Jurgen Melzer or a qualifier. It is an easy enough early round draw for the world number 1.
 
14 seed Fernando Verdasco, who has had some good results recently, starts off with Steve Darcis of Belgium (who goes in as a bit of a sleeper), before a likely match-up with Gilles Muller and then the dangerously hot Andreas Seppi.  Seppi gets Davydenko and then Ernest Gulbis or Mikhail Kukukshkin. A 3rd round match-up between Verdasco and Seppi if they are on their games would certainly be a cracker.
 
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the 5 seed,  opens up against a qualifier, followed by either dirtaballer Joao Souza or young German Cedrik-Marcel Stebe. If he can get through that, with the crowd urging him on, he could face either Bucharest finalist Fabio Fognini or Serbian Viktor Troicki (who had a good run at the French last year and is seeded 28th).
 
Gilles Simon, who got put in the same part of the draw with fellow French favorite Tsonga, will take on American Ryan Harrison before a match-up with either Malisse or Brian Baker. Baker is a guy that most of the tour is slightly terrified of playing right now because he is doing so well. Simon just lost to Almagro in the Nice semi-finals and if he can get through Baker or Malisse, he will probably face another dangerous player, Stanislas Wawrinka, the 18 seed.  Wawrinka will face Flavio Cipolla and then probably Casablanca champ Pablo Andujar.
  
Federer’s quarter:
Roger Federer, the ATP Madrid champ and 3 seed, opens up against veteran German Tobias Kamke.  Afterward, he probably faces another vet still playing well who prefers clay, David Nalbandian. It gets slightly easier from there though as his 3rd round match-up will be  either Roddick/Mahut or Dancevic/Klizan.  Dancevic is coming off injury while Roddick is slumping, Roddick last beat Federer in Miami, though, so that would be a compelling 3rd round match-up.
 
15 seed Feliciano Lopez, another veteran Spaniard, starts off against a qualifier before a match-up with either Karol Beck or Polish doubles specialist Lukasz Kubot, then he likely faces 23 seed Radek Stepanek and then Federer.
 
7 seed Tomas Berdych, one of the favorites outside the top 5 this week will open up against Dudi Sela, before a match-up with either Frenchman Michael Llodra or GGL. Then he probably gets another big man, 31 seed Kevin Anderson, and another big man, the 9 seed Juan Martin Del Potro, in what is the “big man” part of the draw.
 
Del Potro opens up against Albert Montanes, then will face either Frenchmen Edourd Roger-Vasselin or Vasek “Vashy” Pospisil, the young Canadian. The 3rd round match-up would probably be with 21 seed Marin Cilic in a rematch of their previous battles including in Davis Cup play on clay. Cilic will have to get through Juan Carlos Ferrero first, though, and that is never an easy task on the dirt.
 
Murray’s quarter:
 
Murray is the 4 seed but this isn’t exactly “his” quarter for the taking.  Never the less, he actually has a somewhat easy draw starting off with Tatsuma Ito of Japan who performed admirably in Dusseldorf this week,  and then either Jarkko Niemenen or Igor Andreev. Then he will get either 25 seed Bernard Tomic, not exactly on a hot streak himself,  a qualifier or Colombians Falla or Giraldo.
 
16 seed Alexandr Dolgopolov  opens up against Ukranian Sergiy Stakhovsky and then will likely face Italian Fillipo Volandri before meeting 17 seed Richard Gasquet.
 
Gasquet gets a qualifier and then Dimitrov or Young.  He comes in a bit under the radar but he is another French favorite and certainly a handful. He knocked off Murray in a 3-set battle in Rome and Murray could get a chance at revenge.
 
6 seed David Ferrer, who is the odds on favorite in this quarter of the draw, even while playing second fiddle to Nadal most of the clay court season has done quite well in his own right.  He opens up against Lukas Lacko, before facing either Ramos or Paire and then either 27 seed Mikhail Younzhy/James Blake or Robin Haase/Ivan Dodig.  Nothing too tricky for him early on.
 
10 seed John Isner, who has struggled recently, even though he was a “dark horse” pick for Roland Garros earlier in the year and is the American almost everyone is still pinning their slim clay court hopes on opens up against a qualifier and then the Mathieu/Phau winner.  Then he likely faces dangerous Spanish dirtballer Marcel Granollers and then Ferrer.  It is a pretty unlucky draw for the tall American.
 
Nadal’s quarter:
 
Rafa is the odds on favorite to win it all once again in Paris after dominating the clay court season winning titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. His only slip up was against Verdasco in Madrid (he also reclaimed the number 2 ranking from Federer after losing it momentarily). Nadal starts off against Italian Simone Bollelli and then will face the Istomin/Kunitsyn winner.  32 seed Florian Mayer of Germany or Ivo Karlovic are his likely 3rd round match-ups and then Juan Monaco in the 4th round.  It is an easy early draw for the Spaniard.
 
Monaco opens up against wild card Guillumane Rufin of France and then will get the Carlos Berlocq/Lukas Rosol winner.  If he faces Berlocq it will be a battle of Argentines. 19 seed Milos Raonic is his likely 3rd round match up .
 
Janko Tipsarevic, the 8 seed, lost to Wawrinka in Rome but also reached the semis in Madrid and is also in the final for Serbia in Dusseldorf where he knocked off Philip Kohlschreiber. He begins against American Sam Querrey before facing either Frenchman Jeremy Chardy or Yen-Tsun Lu. He then will likely get another Frenchman, 29 seed Julien Benneteau, and then 12 seed Nicolas Almagro, who has reached the final in Nice.
 
Almagro, another clay court favorite, will face Paolo Lorenzi, the Baghdatis/Chela winner and then 24 seed Philip Kohlschreiber of Germany.
 
Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Stanislas Wawrinka, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Alexandr Dolgopolov/Marcel Granollers and Phillip Kohlschreiber.
 
Wawrinka, the 18 seed, could easily reach the quarterfinals if he can get past Simon, who has been toiling away in Nice and will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He’ll also have to take out Tsonga, who has been somewhat of a roller coaster ride recently (getting thumped by Djokovic in Rome after beating Del Potro, losing to Dolgopolov in Madrid and Haas in Munich). If Wawrinka does this, he could be the most hated man in France for dashing French hopes. For his part, his last loss was a thriller in Rome to Andreas Seppi.
 
Ferrero, the former world number 1, French Open champ (2003) and French Open runner up (2002), seeks another dashing run in Paris after a nice couple of wins in Rome over Anderson and Monfils. He faces a wild card and then 21 seed Cilic. Then he would face 2 other big men, Del Potro and Berdych reach the quarterfinals. Though it is unlikely, in this part of the draw it is possible.
 
Dolgopolov has a great shot to reach the quarters if he can knock off Gasquet on home clay and then Murray, who is always unpredictable these days.  He might even be lucky enough to avoid Murray and get Tomic in the 3rd round.   He was forced to retire during his match vs. Verdasco in Rome but reached the quarters of Madrid.
 
Granollers is the other dark horse in this quarter (considering Murray struggles don’t exactly make him the favorite) and if he could knock off a slumping John Isner on his favorite surface, he would then most likely face Ferrer. While he would be a heavy underdog to his countryman Ferrer, stranger things have happened.
 
Kohlschreiber, the Munich champ, lost to Tipsarevic in the semis of the world team cup in Dusseldorf after winning a couple of matches and before that, lost to Isner in the 1st round of Rome. He has a good chance to reach the quarters if he can get past Nice finalist (and possible champ) Almagro and then get his revenge on Tipsarevic.
 
Week 1 predictions (4th round match-ups)
 
Djokovic v. Verdasco
Tsonga v. Simon
Federer v. Lopez
Berdych v. Del Potro
Ferrer v. Granollers
Murray v. Dolgopolov
Tipsarevic v. Almagro
Nadal v. Monaco
 
And for what it’s worth, here is my full French Open bracket prediction http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketFrenchOpenATP/FrenchOpenATP/pool/entrypicks.aspx?entryid=297104&confirmed=true&existing=true
 
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Simon (dashing French hopes)
Federer d. Berdych (in a rematch of the Madrid final)
Ferrer d. Dolgopolov
Nadal d. Tipsarevic (in a rematch of the  Barcelona quarter finals)
 
Semis:
Federer d. Djokovic (gets his revenge from the Rome defeat)
Nadal d. Ferrer (for the third time in a row on clay possibly)
 
Final:
 
Nadal d. Federer in a rematch of last year’s final. Nadal has only lost once in Paris (to Robin Soderling in 2009) and carries a 45-1 record with him. He has also dominated the rest of the clay court season and also now holds the record for most wins on clay all time.