Tennis Atlantic

2013 Australian Open Week 1 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

Australian Open

Grand Slam

January 14-January 27, 2013

It’s time again for my personal favorite slam, the happy slam, the thrilling, exhilarating, hyper intense Australian Open. It’s live with late night and early morning action from Melbourne park, and it’s a world away. It is the first slam of the year and every player is looking for a good result to set the mood for the season ahead. In the next two weeks, history and memories will be made once again and here is a preview of the men’s side of the action.

Top 8 seeds

1: Novak Djokovic

2: Roger Federer

3: Andy Murray

4: David Ferrer

5: Tomas Berdych

6: Juan Martin Del Potro

7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

8: Janko Tipsarevic

The only players missing from the men’s top 50 are last year’s finalist Rafael Nadal, still seemingly rehabbing his knee injury and other related issues, Mardy Fish, who hasn’t played since the US Open last year, and John Isner, who also went out with a knee injury this month and withdrew earlier in the week, dealing a blow to American hopes.

1st round matchups to watch:

(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Paul Henri Mathieu

Djokovic should not have too much trouble out of the gate since he seems to be in good form, but the rejuvenated Frenchman PHM might have some tricks up his sleeve to give the world number one a test early on. While PHM hasn’t played any ATP matches this year he did take part in the Kooyong classic and pushed Del Potro to 3 sets and depending on his consistency, this could actually be a competitive match.

(11)Juan Monaco vs. Andrey Kuznetsov

Pico has to be on upset alert for this match against the 21-year-old Russian talent Kuznetsov, who has broken into the top 80 after playing mainly at the challenger level last year. Though he seems to prefer clay, Kuznetsov isn’t bad on hard courts either. Monaco has not played any tournament matches this year, as he has been dealing with a hand injury that forced him to pull out of Kooyong. While he seems to be over that now, a mixture of rust and surface creates the makings for an early upset.

David Goffin vs. (22) Fernando Verdasco

Struggling former AO semifinalist Verdasco hasn’t won a singles match in his preparation for the AO. He’ll get a tough test in the humble Belgian youngster Goffin who really isn’t in the best form himself. Goffin enters the AO with a 1-2 singles record after 2nd and 1st round losses in his prep events. Still, you have to think D Goff is playing a bit better than Nando at the moment.

Fabio Fognini vs. Roberto Bautista-Agut

Chennai finalist Bautista-Agut will look to keep his quality play going on the grand slam stage. He retired in Sydney with fatigue but should be well rested now to take on Foginini, who will be sure to throw all the shots he has at the Spaniard. This match will show if Bautista-Agut is primed to surprise in Melbourne.

Michael Russell vs. (5)Tomas Berdych

Veteran baseline grinder muscles Russell got a stroke of luck when he drew a seemingly out of form Berdych, who after being upset in Chennai, was pushed to 3 sets by Ivan Dodig in Kooyang, then lost to Lleyton Hewitt there. Berdych is the stronger player and should not have any trouble with Russell but he has suffered 1st round slam upsets before…

(32)Julien Benneteau vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Seeded Sydney semifinalist Benneteau got the misfortune of drawing one of the hottest unseeded players in the draw in the form of Dimitrov, who he lost to twice last year. The Brisbane finalist has all the talent to make a deep run in Melbourne. This should be a good match full of intrigue and while Dimitrov will be favored, Benny could still grab the win.

Lleyton Hewitt vs. (8) Janko Tipsarevic

Tenacious veteran counter-puncher Lleyton Hewitt no longer carries the hopes of Australia almost solely on his shoulders, since less is expected of him in the twilight of his career. He still can come up with some Melbourne magic now and again and he will need all the magic he can muster against top tenner Tipsarevic, who will be looking to improve upon his results in slams and is coming off the Chennai title. While Tipsarevic will certainly be favored, this should still be a fun and possibly very long match. Last year Hewitt was able to upset Milos Raonic and still seems as motivated as ever to win matches, as just this week he notched some upsets to reach the final of the Kooyong classic.

Grega Zemlja vs. (22) Marcel Granollers

The unseeded Zemlja will be looking to grab the upset against Spaniard Granollers, who though he prefers clay, did make the quarterfinals in Sydney this past week. This match could really go either way and could go 4 or 5 sets.

Gael Monfils vs. (18) Alexandr Dolgopolov

The talented but inconsistent Monfils will meet the talented but inconsistent Dolgo in the opening round for the first time in their careers. Dolgo is a former AO quarterfinalist coming off a quarterfinal in Brisbane while Monfils made the semis in Auckland but was easily bounced by David Ferrer. This match could go either way, in both result and number of sets and I could very easily see this one ending in a retirement, especially if it is a day match in the scorching Melbourne heat.

(25) Florian Mayer vs. (WC) Rhyne Williams

USTA WC winner Rhyne Williams also got good luck in the draw and will have a good chance at an upset against consistent German Mayer who is an even 2-2 in his pre AO tournaments and prefers clay over hard courts. At the US Open last year Mayer fell to another rising American in Jack Sock. Now Williams will look to repeat the feat and has the talent to do it.

 

(19)Tommy Haas vs. Jarkko Nieminen

Tommy Haas has had success at the AO in the past and returns to Melbourne as a top 25 player looking for a good run. Haas has a tough opening test against the flying fin Jarkko Nieminen, who is coming off a quarterfinal in Sydney, while Haas is coming off a quarterfinal in Auckland. Haas will be favored, but do not put it past Nieminen to get the win.

(2) Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire

The tennis draw maestros did not do Fed any favors this time, as he will have to face the talented 23-year-old Paire, who is near a career high ranking just outside the top 40, in the opening round. Paire made the semis in Chennai and has an all court game, but the last time they met in Basel in 2012, Federer won easily in straight sets.

Djokovic’s quarter:

The defending AO champ Djokovic will face either Ryan Harrison or Santiago Giraldo after doing battle with Mathieu, then could meet an out of form Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round. It’s a pretty easy early start for the Serbian superstar. Also in this section are the out of form Viktor Troicki and Radek Stepanek, one just struggling, and the other struggling with injuries. They will meet in the 1st round and the winner will play Lopez or a qualifier.

Auckland semi finalist and 25 seed Sam Querrey opens with a qualifier and then should get an intriguing matchup with fellow American Brian Baker, who upset Jerzy Janowicz in the 1st round of Auckland and seems to be playing competitively. The winner of that likely gets a match with 15 seed Stan Wawrinka who opens with a qualifier and then plays Tobias Kamke or Flavio Cipolla.

The winner of Monaco/Kuznetsov will likely face current Sydney finalist Kevin Anderson, who opens with Paolo Lorenzi. Whoever advances will get the winner of Verdasco/Goffin or Auckland quarterfinalist Xaiver Malisse, who opens with a slumping Pablo Andujar.

26 seed Jurgen Melzer opens with Mikhail Kukushkin and then will play the winner of Fognini/Bautista-Agut. In the 3rd round, whoever advances from that section should face Tomas Berdych if he gets through Russell and a qualifier or Guillaume Rufin.

Ferrer’s quarter:

Current Auckland finalist and former AO semi finalist David Ferrer will open with veteran mighty mite Olivier Rochus and then should get a polar opposite match against the veteran big man Ivo Karlovic (who opens with a qualifier). In the 3rd round, odds are he will face Brisbane semifinalist and a guy who does well in Melbourne, Marcos Baghdatis, who opens with a slumping Albert Ramos then the winner of John Millman vs. Tatsuma Ito.

16 seed and Brisbane semifinalist Kei Nishikori, who was dealing with injuries but seems recovered, opens with veteran Victor Hanescu then will meet Carlos Berlocq or a qualifier followed by 23 seed Mikhail Youzhny, who opens with Matt Ebden, then could meet countryman Evgeny Donskoy or Romanian Adrian Ungur.

10 seed Nico Almagro opens with a qualifier followed by the winner of Lukasz Kubot vs. Daniel Gimeno-Traver and then could face a test in the form of Jerzy Janowicz, who looks to recover from a 1st round loss in Auckland and will open with Italian Simone Bolleli, followed by the winner of Somdev Devvarman vs. Bjorn Phau.

The winner of Benneteau/Dimitrov will face Edouard Roger-Vasselin or a qualifier and then prepare for battle with Janko Tipsarevic, who after facing Hewitt, will take on the winner of Lukas Lacko, coming off a quarterfinal in Auckland against Gilles Muller.

Murray’s quarter:

Andy Murray, a semi finalist last year and twice a former AO finalist, will begin another Aussie open odyssey against Dutchman Robin Haase, who does not seem to be in great form. Then he’ll play the winner of Joao Sousa vs. Aussie J.P Smith, followed by a match with either the Mayer/Williams winner, Sergiy Stakhovsky, or a qualifier. Williams actually has a great shot at the 3rd round here.

Moving up the bracket, the Dolgopolov/Monfils winner will play the winner of Yen-Hsun Lu vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, then in the 3rd round should meet 14 seed Gilles Simon, who retired during a match in Sydney and might be struggling a bit. Simon opens with Filippo Volandri, then will face the winner of Tommy Robredo vs. the newly minted Canadian Jesse Levine. Simon at least gets a pretty easy early go of things.

Juan Martin Del Potro looks to bring his big game to Melbourne starting off with a qualifier, followed by the dangerous Aljaz Bedene, who will open with veteran Benjamin Becker. After that, he could play the Zemlja/Granollers winner, Jeremy Chardy, or a qualifier.

Sydney semifinalist Andreas Seppi, the 21 seed, opens with Argentine Horacio Zeballos, then will face the winner of Sydney quarterfinalist Denis Istomin vs. sizzling Igor Sijsling. The winner will likely follow with a match with 12 seed Marin Cilic, who opens up with Aussie Marinko Matosevic, followed by the winner of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. a qualifier. Seppi has a good chance at the 3rd round as Cilic isn’t playing his best tennis at the moment.

Federer’s quarter:

Federer, the 4 time Aussie open champ and semi-finalist last year, has a brutal early draw. After playing Paire he will get the dangerous veteran floater Nikolay Davydenko, who looked so strong previously en route to the Doha final. Davy will open with a qualifier. In the 3rd round, he may have to face home favorite and current Sydney finalist Bernard Tomic, who has realized a lot of his potential this month and is playing some of the best tennis of his young career in front of the home fans. Tomic opens with Leonardo Mayer and then Martin Klizan, the struggling 27 seed, or a qualifier.

Federer declined to play any tournament matches before the AO this year, and will be thrown right in the fire at the get go. He certainly can beat anyone when he is at his best, but any of his first 3 opponents could push him quite hard.

Elsewhere in this quarter, current Auckland finalist and 17 seed Phillip Kohlschreiber opens with Steve Darcis, then will face young Argentine Guido Pella or a qualifier. His possible 3rd round opponent, 13 seed Milos Raonic, who is really struggling this month (losing matches in both Brisbane and the Kooyong classic), opens with Jan Hajek, then a qualifier or fellow serve bomber Lukas Rosol.

9 seed and Doha champ Richard Gasquet will look to keep his momentum going opening with Spanish vet Albert Montanes followed by Alejandro Falla or wild card Josselin Ouanna. In the 3rd round, Gasquet should meet either the Haas/Nieminen winner or Ivan Dodig, an under the radar player who opens with Di Wu of China.

Former AO finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga begins with serve and volleying countryman Michael Llodra, followed by a match against Go Soeda or promising young Aussie Luke Saville. In the 3rd round, Tsonga could meet young Aussies James Duckworth or Ben Mitchell, who will play each other in the 1st round, Blaz Kavic, or 29 seed Thomaz Bellucci, who is talented but inconsistent. Tsonga should have an easy go of things the first few rounds.

Dark Horses (1 for each quarter of the draw): Kevin Anderson, Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Richard Gasquet

Anderson is playing and serving well and does well on hard courts. He gets a very reasonable early draw with Lorenzi, Monaco (who is seeded but not in great shape), then Malisse or Goffin. In the 4th round he will get Berdych or Bautista-Agut, both of whom are beatable and he has a great shot at the quarters, where he will likely run into Djokovic and run out of wins.

Dimitrov is skillful and playing great and assuming he dispatches Benneteau, Roger-Vasselin or a qualifier, he should set up a meeting with Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic will be favored in that one but it isn’t unreasonable that Grisha can pull it off and then beat likely opponent Almagro before running into Ferrer in the quarters. Dimitrov could go out somewhere between the 3rd round and the semis, but either way, he has a lot of upside.

Seppi is seasoned and consistent and has the advantage of a good draw. Assuming he doesn’t trip up against Istomin, he will have the advantage over Cilic but will likely go out in the 4th round at the hands of Del Potro.

Gasquet honestly got a bit lucky in Doha as he fell behind in multiple matches and his tactical play remains questionable, but he still has confidence from it and should be able to get through Montanes, Falla, and Haas, though that latter match will likely be a battle. In the 4th round, while Tsonga will be favored, Gasquet will still have a tremendous opportunity to notch the upset and make the quarterfinals. There he would likely face Federer, unless by some chance an even vaguer dark horse like Tomic, Kohlschreiber or Davydenko were to shock the tennis world and beat him.

Week 1 Predictions (4th round matchups)

Djokovic d. Querrey

Djokovic beat Querrey multiple times in 2012 and the result shouldn’t be any different this time.

Anderson d. Bautista-Agut

Bautista-Agut just beat Berdych in Chennai, and I think he can do it once again to set up this 4th round matchup, but I don’t think he is quite ready for the big time yet. Anderson should edge by.

Ferrer d. Nishikori

Tipsarevic d. Almagro

Del Potro d. Seppi

Murray d. Dolgopolov

Murray has beaten Dolgopolov 4 straight times, including a 4 set victory at the 2011 Aussie Open and a win at the 2012 Brisbane final.

Tsonga d. Gasquet

Federer d. Kohlschreiber

Quarters:

Djokovic d. Anderson

Ferrer d. Tipsarevic

This could be another 5 set ball striking slugfest just like their 2012 US Open quarterfinal matchup.

Murray d. Del Potro

This match could be tight and Del Potro will certainly have his chances.

Federer d. Tsonga

Another chance for Federer to trip up, but he should eke through.

Semis:

Djokovic d. Ferrer

Ferrer is good, but never has been at the level to trip up the big 3.

Murray d. Federer

With a mix of Murray’s motivation, less stress after finally winning a slam and Federer’s fatigue from a brutal draw, edge goes to Murray here.

Final:

Djokovic d. Murray

As much as I personally want to pick Murray, I have to go with Djokovic, who continues to consistently get the job done and hasn’t shown any signs he is not poised to win another AO title. Djokovic beat Murray in a thrilling 2012 AO semi and I expect this match to be just as entertaining if it occurs. On the other hand, Murray did beat Djokovic to win the US Open last year, but it took him 5 sets to do it and Djokovic seemed a bit out of sorts the whole time.