Tennis Atlantic

2013 ATP Cincinnati Preview and Predictions
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

The second Masters 1000 event of the hardcourt summer starts Sunday in Mason, Ohio and Tennis East Coast is pleased again to offer some live coverage from our own traveling fangirl, Courtney Massey. The Rogers Cup in Montreal featured plenty of upsets, and with some players limping into Cincy with various injuries, it will be interesting to discover the outcome in this one.

Western and Southern OpenATP World Tour Masters 1000
Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
August 11-August 18, 2013
Prize Money: $ 3,079,555

Top 8 seeds (all receive first round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Andy Murray
3: David Ferrer
4: Rafael Nadal
5: Roger Federer
6: Tomas Berdych
7: Juan Martin Del Potro
8: Richard Gasquet

Federer is back for his first and only tune up before the US Open, Tsonga is still out, and Nadal has now surpassed Ferrer in the rankings. The seeding doesn’t reflect that.

First round matchups to watch:

Cincy has a lot of great first round matchups, but these are the best of the bunch.

Vasek Pospisil vs. (15)Gilles Simon

Surprise Rogers Cup semifinalist Vasek Pospisil, on a tremendous streak of great play, will meet a struggling Gilles Simon for the first time, assuming he isn’t too fatigued. A fresh Popisil would win this rather easily in their current form but Simon will have a chance because of the fatigue factor, as he does put a lot of balls back in play and make his opponents work.

(12)Milos Raonic vs. (wc)Jack Sock

Raonic is the other big surprise from the Rogers Cup. He was in poor form until then, but with a mix of luck and improved play he found his way to the final. Now, he will get a rematch with Jack Sock in Cincy, who shocked him in Memphis this year. Though Sock is talented, he has been somewhat disappointing this summer. This is another match that is hard to predict once fatigue gets factored in.

(10)Kei Nishikori vs. Feliciano Lopez

Kei Nishikori is not playing well, as he dropped sets to both Peter Polansky and Andreas Seppi before losing In the 3rd round of the Rogers Cup to Richard Gasquetnin 3 sets. Lopez, however, gave eventual quarterfinalist Ernests Gulbis a competitive match and seems to be fit. The H2H is one a piece and Nishikori routined Lopez in Memphis this year. All that said, I actually give Feli a slight edge here.

Phillip Kohlschreiber vs. Mardy Fish

Kohlschreiber has not been at top caliber recently. Mardy Fish, who made the 3rd round in DC and is back this week after a week off, will have a good chance to score a notable win in front of home fans. Kohli won their only meeting all the way back in 2005, but I wouldn’t read much into that and Kohlschreiber could also find his form. Either way, expect a quality contest.

(11)Tommy Haas vs. Kevin Anderson

Tommy Haas would be the favorite under normal circumstances, but he has been nursing a shoulder injury and had to retire in the 2nd round of the Rogers Cup. Anderson won their only meeting in 2011, and though he lost to Alex Dolgopolov in a surprise 1st round loss in Montreal, he still is consistent enough on hard courts to notch an upset over the 11 seed.

Ernests Gulbis vs. Mikhail Youzhny

Rollercoaster Montreal quarterfinalist Gulbis, who upset Andy Murray, is fighting for US Open seeding here in what will be his sixth meeting with the mercurial colonel Youzhny. He owns a 3-2 H2H lead but the series is tied on hardcourts and Youzhny won their last meeting in Doha on hardcourts. Youzhny lost to Raonic in the 2nd round of Montreal, and again both players are quite erratic at times. Talented but erratic.

Top Half:

Novak Djokovic, who made the semis of the Rogers Cup, will be seeking to win his first Western and Southern Open, which would give him a trophy at all nine Masters events across the span of his career He also has final points to defend and opens with Juan Monaco/Jurgen Melzer, neither of whom should trouble of him much. In the 3rd round, Simon/Pospisil or a pair of qualifiers are the options, as again he shouldn’t be troubled much.

Richard Gasquet got run off the court by Novak in Montreal, but by making the quarters, remained in the top 10. Gasquet will play Florian Mayer/John Isner and the winner could get Raonic/Sock or Sam Querrey/Janko Tipsarevic in Round 3. Both Querrey and Tipsarevic could desperately use wins, and Tipsy especially is not even playing top 100 tennis right now. This section is full of opportunity for whoever wants to seize the moment.

David Ferrer was utterly shocked by Alex Bogomolov in Montreal, and will look to bounce back against Ryan Harrison/Alex Dolgopolov, in what on paper looks like an abysmal match. Both Harrison and Dolgo are in so-so form at best. Harrison lost early in the Aptos challenger and Dolgo lost yet again early in the 2nd round of Montreal. He did score a 1st round win over Kevin Anderson. Dolgopolov vs. Ferrer would be a rematch of their entertaining Wimbledon battle, and though Ferrer could be troubled, I don’t see it coming from Harrison or Dolgo.

In Round 3, the winner of that section gets Jerzy Janowicz/James Blake, or a qualifier/Martin Klizan. Janowicz has blossomed into a consistent performer these days having made the 3rd round in Montreal, and he should be good to get out of that section.

Juan Martin Del Potro has some shoulder issues, as he nearly lost to Ivan Dodig in Montreal before losing to Milos Raonic in a match that was altered by a bad officiating call. JMDP will face Benoit Paire/Nikolay Davydenko in his first match.

Davydenko rumbled his way to the Montreal quarters in a surprise but promptly retired with bronchitis, and Paire beat both Kohlschreiber and Stan Wawrinka but suffered a bad loss to Marinko Matosevic in Montreal.

Bottom Half:

Andy Murray could get his immediate shot at revenge if Gulbis beats Youzhny, because as mentioned, he was routined by the Latvian in Montreal Round 3. If he can get past his first match, the Scotsman will get Fabio Fognini/Radek Stepanek or Julian Benneteau/Marcos Baghdatis in another open section. If Fognini and Baghdatis meet in Round 2, it would be an immediate rematch of a three setter won by Fogna in Montreal. If Fognini and Gulbis were to meet, the same would apply.

Tomas Berdych comes off a 3rd round loss to Pospisil in Montreal and will face Jarkko Nieminen or a qualifier. Nieminen lost in three sets via retirement to Filip Peliwo in Montreal, and may not be fully fit yet. In Round 3, it should be Berdych against Stan Wawrinka, though Andreas Seppi, Thomas Bellucci and Tommy Robredo are all options.

Montreal champion Rafa Nadal will meet a qualifier to start his Cincy journey before doing business with Nicolas Almagro/Grigor Dimitrov or Brian Baker/Denis Istomin. Neither Almagro nor Dimitrov looked sharp in Montreal. Istomin is playing well and made his way to the 3rd round there, while Baker won a match in the Aptos challenger before losing in the next round. This will be Baker’s first ATP match in some time. He looks healthy, but the rust is still lingering, as to be expected.

Roger Federer, who has to defend the title here but is by no means anywhere close to the favorite, will play Kohlschreiber/Fish to start. That’s not an easy ask, and if he survives, Anderson/Haas or Lukas Rosol/Marcel Granollers await in Round 3. Rosol continues to be in poor form, while Granollers is middling.

Predictions:

Quarters:

Djokovic d. Gasquet
Janowicz d. Paire
Nadal d. Federer
Murray d. Berdych

Djokovic and Gasquet should again be of limited consequence. I have Paire getting out of the next section instead of Del Potro, citing the shoulder issue, but Janowicz should advance regardless. Nadal and Murray should also be safe to advance unless Nadal is fatigued and Murray still has rust. Nadal’s routine win over Fed in Indian Wells this year is notable.

Semis:
Djokovic d. Janowicz
Murray d. Nadal

Djokovic is still likely too good for JJ. Murray/Nadal is a toss-up for me, but with fatigue factored in I’ll go with Murray.

Final:
Djokovic d. Murray

Another almost pure toss-up, but I’ll switch the pick this week and say Novak over AM.