Tennis Atlantic

2013 US Open Week 2 Men’s Preview, Predictions
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

Six days of main draw tennis are in the books in Flushing and one more week remains in the final slam of the year. Most of the big names are still vying for the title, but some have already bid adieu to New York, as has James Blake who retired from tennis with a first round loss. The biggest storyline on the men’s side is probably the solid performance from veteran players to reach the second week, while disappointing performances from Americans and younger players like Jerzy Janowicz, Benoit Paire, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic and of course Ernests Gulbis have taken some of the youth out of things.

Here is a breakdown of the eight round 16 matches and onwards the rest of the way.

Novak Djokovic vs. Marcel Granollers

Djokovic has cruised past Ricardas Berankis, Benjamin Becker and Joao Sousa, all without dropping a set and really only Becker has played him close. That only lasted for a set before the veteran German faded. All in all, Novak looks razor-sharp and should continue the straight set crusade against Granollers, who has played an amazing three straight 5 set matches, notching wins over Jurgen Zopp, Rajeev Ram and Tim Smyczek. Ram shocked everyone by taking Fabio Fognini to the woodshed in round 1. He lost a 2 set lead against Granollers, though.

Mikhail Youzhny vs. Lleyton Hewitt

This is a tale of two veterans who have turned back the clock a bit. Youzhny didn’t drop a set against either Nicolas Mahut or Alex Dolgopolov before upsetting Tommy Haas in 4 sets. Hewitt has played inspired tennis, defeating Brian Baker in 4 sets, upsetting Juan Martin Del Potro in 5 sets and taking care of Evgeny Donskoy in 4 sets. Del Potro played quite terrible this week and was beyond sluggish and flat in both of his matches. Hewitt was the one who would take full advantage of that. Hewitt has a 3-1 h2h hard court edge over the Russian and won their last meeting last year in Cincy. I think this could go five, but I’m gonna go with Lleyton advancing. This is a great chance for either to make the quarters of a slam again.

Andy Murray vs. Denis Istomin

Murray made it through the easy part of defending his US Open title. Now comes the business end of the tournament, starting with Denis Istomin. Murray put on a clinic against Michael Llodra, then beat Leo Mayer in 4 sets and Florian Mayer in straight sets to get here. Istomin comes off a 5 set win against Andreas Seppi after a 4 set win over Nicolas Almagro in round 1 and a 3 set win over Tobias Kamke in round 2. I see no reason why Murray won’t advance here, though Istomin could hang around by holding serve and perhaps force a tiebreak or two.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Tomas Berdych

Stan Wawrinka has returned to his great form this year as he reached the fourth round by dispatching Radek Stepanek in straights, edging past Ivo Karlovic in straights, and narrowly avoiding a 5th set against Marcos Baghdatis (winning in 4 and cutting off the comeback attempt by the Cypriot). Berdych destroyed Paolo Lorenzi in round 1 and Julian Benneteau in round 3, showing great form, but in round 2 he was much more in question against Denis Kudla. However, he also won that one in straights. If Berdych does play shaky again Wawa could win this, but Berdych should get it done in 3 or 4 sets. Wawrinka does have a 3-1 outdoor hard court edge, but their last meeting came in 2011.

Richard Gasquet vs. Milos Raonic

A battle between power and style: Raonic won their only meeting last year but this will probably be a very close match. Gasquet beat Michael Russell and Stephane Robert in straights, then won in 4 sets via retirement against Dmitry Tursunov. Raonic beat Thomas Fabbiano and Pablo Andujar in straights, then Feliciano Lopez in 4 sets. Both have played good and bad tennis for stretches this week, but I’ll stick with my original prediction and say Raonic prevails.

Janko Tipsarevic vs. David Ferrer

A rematch of a 2012 USO quarterfinal, both Janko and David entered this year’s tournament in poor form but seem to have their form again to reach the 4th round. Tipsarevic beat Pablo Cuevas via retirement in straights, Dudi Sela in straights, and Jack Sock in 4 sets after Sock ran out of gas again. Ferrer routined Nick Kyrgios but then needed 4 sets against Roberto Bautista-Agut and Mikhail Kukushkin. This one should go 4 or 5 sets unless either player collapses, but I expect the result to be the same as last year, with Ferrer advancing.

Roger Federer vs. Tommy Robredo

Fedex has rolled into the 4th round with routine wins over Grega Zemlja, Carlos Berlocq and Adrian Mannarino. He has never lost to Robredo (10-0 h2h) and though Robredo has done well to earn wins over Marinko Matosevic in 4, Frank Dancevic in straights, and an exhausted but in form Dan Evans in 5, Fed should be too much for him again. Mannarino knocked out number 2 American Sam Querrey in 4 sets in round 2, as Querrey played a lackadaisical match.

Phillip Kohlschreiber vs. Rafael Nadal

Nadal is 10-1 against Kohlschreiber and he continues to look like the man to beat in New York, as he trashed Ryan Harrison in straights, handed fresh New York baked goods to Rogerio Dutra Silva and calmly eased his way past a hobbled Ivan Dodig to get this far. Kohli got the best of John Isner again after notching first and second round wins over Collin Altamirano in straights and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in 4. Kohli should give Nadal a tougher test than his first three matches, but I wouldn’t expect anything but straights for Rafa.

Predictions:

QFs

Djokovic d. Hewitt
Murray d. Berdych
Raonic d. Ferrer
Nadal d. Federer

Djokovic shouldn’t have too much trouble, if his last slam meeting with Rusty (2012 Aussie Open) is any indication. Hewitt fought as hard as he could and Novak still won in straights. The Aussie should take heart that he has a 1-0 USO record against Djokovic though, as he won their 2006 meeting.

Murray-Berdych is the same toss-up as before, but I think Murray is focused and will have that extra little bit to get him the win. Raonic has never beaten Ferrer (0-4), but I think he will do it this time if he can keep his form up. Ferrer still has not been 100% this tournament and Raonic is much stiffer competition than the rest of what he has faced.

Nadal should also beat Fed again, though it could be close with both playing dominating tennis against lesser competition at the moment.

SFs

Murray d. Djokovic
Nadal d. Raonic

Same as the original predictions: Murray edging out Novak, Nadal taking care of Raonic.

Final
Nadal d. Murray

Sticking with the original prediction. Murray has a shot at this, but Nadal has not disappointed thus far and remains the solid favorite to win this and sweep the hard court season.