2013 ATP Beijing & Tokyo Previews, Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
A pair of strong 500s this week in Beijing and Tokyo are the action this week on the ATP World Tour and here is your preview for both.
ATP Beijing
China Open
ATP World Tour 500
Beijing, China
September 30-October 6, 2013
Prize Money: $2,315,250
Top 8 seeds
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Rafael Nadal
3: David Ferrer
4: Tomas Berdych
5: Richard Gasquet
6: Stanislas Wawrinka
7: Tommy Haas
8: John Isner
The Olympic tennis center, the large prize money pool and the prestige of a joint event with the WTA has attracted a boatload of big names to Beijing.
First round matchups to watch:
(3)David Ferrer vs. Vasek Pospisil
Ferrer is 2-0 career against Pospisil, who was shocked by Federico Delbonis in Kuala Lumpur and has been hassled by an inability to close out matches. This match is really only notable because Ferrer has suffered a slate of shocking losses this year and he just had one in Kuala Lumpur to current finalist Joao Sousa. The loss looks better in hindsight, but top 5 players losing to players outside the top 50 is still a shock. I expect Ferrer to win, but can’t be confident of that.
(7)Tommy Haas vs. (WC)Lleyton Hewitt
This is a Battle Royale of the fighting thirty-something vets for the first time in nine years. Between 2000 and 2004, Hewitt beat Haas six times and lost twice. Much has changed, however and smarter but older, they will renew their rivalry in Beijing. It’s a toss-up match.
Top Half:
Novak Djokovic will play Lukas Rosol as he begins his fall campaign and then Fernando Verdasco or a qualifier in round 2. Kuala Lumpur semifinalist and rival Stanislas Wawrinka is his likely quarterfinal opponent, as they could have a rematch of their great US Open match this year (and great AO match in January).
Wawrinka needs to beat Andreas Seppi and Mikhail Youzhny/Sam Querrey to reach the quarters.
Ferrer/Pospisil will play Marinko Matosevic or current Kuala Lumpur finalist Julien Benneteau in round 2 and then most likely Bangkok semifinalist Richard Gasquet in the quarters. Gasquet has to notch wins over Florian Mayer and Ze Zhang/Bernard Tomic to get there. Gasquet-Ferrer would be a US Open rematch as well.
Bottom Half:
Rafa Nadal also begins his fall campaign in Beijing. His first opponent will be a qualifier before facing Albert Montanes/Philipp Kohlschreiber and one of Haas/Hewitt, Tommy Robredo/Fabio Fognini in the quarters. Not the easiest draw, but he took care of Kohli at the USO and has a positive recent record against the other players.
Tomas Berdych is a finalist in Bangkok.He opens with Pablo Andujar before advancing to Nikolay Davydenko/Qualifier and most likely John Isner in the quarters. Isner plays Chinese wild card Di Wu, followed by Grigor Dimitrov/Qualifier before the quarters.
Dark Horse: John Isner
If Berdych is tired, Isner becomes the favorite in his quarter as he has a pretty weak first couple of matches before running into Berdych. Semis are possible but not likely for the American.
Predictions
Semis:
Djokovic d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Berdych
Djokovic has only lost to Gasquet once and has handled him well in a ton of other meetings. He is in good form judging from Davis Cup and should be fine here. Nadal hasn’t lost to Berdych in 7 years. He also looks to be in good form and has beaten Berdych 3 times this year, so he should be good.
Final:
Nadal d. Djokovic
A rematch of the USO final and a bunch of other matches. I expect the same result, but it could still go either way between the best 2 players in the world right now.
Djokovic is the defending champion and has won Beijing three times, but Nadal is seeking to take the number 1 ranking from him.
ATP Tokyo
Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Tokyo, Japan
September 30-October 6, 2013
Prize Money: $1,297,000
Top 8 seeds
1: Juan Martin Del Potro
2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
3: Milos Raonic
4: Kei Nishikori
5: Gilles Simon
6: Nicolas Almagro
7: Kevin Anderson
8: Janko Tipsarevic
First round matchups to watch:
(1)Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Marcos Baghdatis
These two fan favorites have met four times on the ATP tour and all on hard courts like this meeting. The head to head is even, meaning the winner will get the positive edge. Del Potro owned their meeting in Dubai early this year in a third set tiebreak and is hopefully recovered from injury issues that have bothered him all year and dogged him at his last event, the US Open. Baghdatis is a disappointing 1-2 in his first two events of the fall ATP season. Del Potro will be the favorite if healthy, but Baghdatis could surprise.
(4)Kei Nishikori vs. Jurgen Melzer
Nishikori is the home hero and the defending champion, meaning he has a considerable amount of pressure here.
Melzer, meanwhile, made the semis in Kuala Lumpur and seems to be in ok form. They have a split 1-1 H2H, with Melzer winning their only hard court meeting 4 years ago. Nishikori won on clay in Madrid this year. Nishikori performed well in his last event, a Davis Cup tie, and will be the favorite here.
(2)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Gael Monfils
Tsonga has a 3-1 H2H edge over his fellow Frenchman and is probably in better form. All of their prior meetings have been on hard courts. Both players have been hassled with injury problems, but can play brilliant tennis when they’re on, and that is why this match is one to watch between charismatic fan favorites. Tsonga should prevail, but Monfils always has a chance against most anyone.
Top Half:
The Del Potro/Baghdatis winner will face Carlos Berlocq or Pablo Cuevas in round 2. Cuevas upset Nikolay Davydenko in Kuala Lumpur.
In the quarterfinals, it will probably be Del Potro vs Alex Dolgopolov or Janko Tipsarevic, a couple of players who have had a downright terrible year of tennis. Also in this section are Victor Hanescu and Daniel Brands and if Del Potro is healthy he seems secure for the semis. Otherwise, who knows?
Nishikori/Melzer will likely play Bangkok quarterfinalist Feliciano Lopez in round 2. Feli just has to beat Tatsuma Ito. Following that, it will be a weak quarterfinal against one of a pair of qualifiers, a slumping Nicolas Almagro, or a slumping Horacio Zeballos. Super-Weak section for a 500.
Bottom Half:
Tsonga/Monfils could get a possibly tough test against Ivan Dodig in round 2 if Dodig beats wild card Yuichi Sugita. A quarterfinal awaits against in-form Bangkok semifinalist and Metz champion Gilles Simon if Simon beats Marcel Granollers and Jarkko Nieminen/Juan Monaco (neither of whom are in good form, but can catch fire).
Tsonga vs. Simon in the quarters would be a rematch of the Metz final, won by Simon.
Current Bangkok finalist Milos Raonic plays Go Soeda and then Jeremy Chardy/Michael Llodra in what should be an easy start for the possibly-fatigued Canadian. A pair of qualifiers, Dmitry Tursunov or Kevin Anderson await in the quarters in a tough test.
Dark Horse: Dmitry Tursunov
Tursunov come off quarterfinals in Kuala Lumpur, which was preceded by quarterfinals in St. Petersburg and a generally good year. Opening with a qualifier and then the unpredictable form of Kevin Anderson gives Tursunov a sniff at the quarterfinals again, with Raonic, who could be tired, probably awaiting.
Predictions
Semis:
Del Potro d. Nishikori
Simon d. Raonic
Del Po has never lost to Nishikori, so unless his wrist or some other body part is giving him trouble, I think he survives to the final.
I like Simon form-wise if he isn’t too tired over Tsonga and then over Raonic, who he has only played once on clay 2 years ago. Not much to go on there.
Final:
Del Potro d. Simon
Simon has a 3-1 edge on hardcourts, and this matchup is good for him. But I think Del Potro, if healthy, will just be too much, as he will be fresher if this final occurs. Either way, a hard pick here.
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