Tennis Atlantic

2014 Australian Open Week 1 Men’s Preview, Picks
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast

Australian Open
Grand Slam
Melbourne, Australia
January 13-January 26, 2014

Happy Days and the Happy Slam are here again as main draw action will heat up in Melbourne starting this weekend and going for two full, exciting weeks. Here is your preview of men’s main draw action for week 1.

Top 8 seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: David Ferrer (3)
4: Andy Murray (4)
5: Juan Martin Del Potro (5)
6: Roger Federer (6)
7: Tomas Berdych (7)
8: Stanislas Wawrinka (8)

Only three of the top 50 are out of the AO: Nicolas Almagro, Jurgen Melzer and Janko Tipsarevic, all with injury issues. The other top 47 are ready to rock in Melbourne.

First round matchups to watch:

(1)Rafael Nadal vs. Bernard Tomic

They have met just once before, at the 2011 AO, where Nadal dispatched Bernard in straights. I tend to think the result will be similar, especially after Tomic was run out of the Sydney final at the hands of Juan Martin Del Potro in under an hour. That being said, this will most certainly be a match on Laver, and a night match to boot. Bernie tends to play his best when he has the big stage, and taking a set off of Rafa would really be an accomplishment in and of itself. And this is not the easiest opponent for Rafa to ease himself into this event.

(WC)Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Igor Sijsling

17 year old Kokkinakis is a rising home talent for the Aussies. He reached the final of the junior AO and the junior US Open last year and qualified early this season at the ATP Brisbane event, winning three qualifying matches before falling to Lleyton Hewitt in straights in the first round of the main draw. His first opponent in his first AO is Igor Sijsling. The hard serving Dutchman is 0-2 in 2014, and Kokkinakis has a good shot at pulling off the upset here in front of the home fans. I’ll go with him to do so, and none the less it should be an intriguing match.

(16)Kei Nishikori vs. Marinko Matosevic

Kei Nishikori made the quarters in Brisbane with a couple of good wins and he faces a tough test in the opening round against an in-form Marinko Matosevic. Matosevic made the quarters in both Brisbane and Sydney, improving his record in Australia, and will be seeking to win his first ever Grand Slam match in what will be his ‘dozenth’ try. Nishikori leads the hard court and overall h2h 1-0 (2-0 but the other match was a retirement) and thus should retain an advantage here, but it should be close and could go five sets.

(22)Grigor Dimitrov vs. Bradley Klahn

Dimitrov will face the wrath of Klahn, as the young Bulgarian will need to beat the American who continues to rise up the rankings. Grigor is just 1-3 in January, if you include his results in the Kooyong exhibition, while Klahn qualified and reached round 2 in Auckland. Many people are looking for Dimitrov to make his move in a slam at this AO, but Klahn will have his chance at a big upset.

(32)Ivan Dodig vs. Ivo Karlovic

Dodig has beaten Karlovic 3 times, but his current form is a question, as he crashed out in his only January warm up match in Doha. Karlovic reached the second round of the same event. With his powerful serve and both players being fresh this one could go either way, but I think Dr. Ivo will advance, probably needing 3 tiebreak wins to get it done.

(19)Kevin Anderson vs. Jiri Vesely

Anderson is in atrocious form presently and is in serious danger of crashing out in the opening round to the up and coming Czech Vesely. Big Kev hasn’t played good tennis in almost a half year now after starting 2013 strong, and crashed out to Steve Johnson in his only pre-AO warm up match in Auckland. Vesely played qualifying in Chennai and Sydney but did not make the main draw for either, and this match probably won’t be a straight set affair regardless of the winner.

(12)Tommy Haas vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

The first meeting between these veteran players, Haas would in most circumstances be a big favorite. But after looking very sluggish and racking up groundstroke errors in a straight set loss to Jack Sock in his only pre-AO warm up match in Auckland, one has to wonder if that performance will carry on into round one of the AO against GGL. GGL won a couple of matches in Auckland and also won a match in Chennai for a 3-2 record on the year. He seems to be playing average at the moment and could trouble Haas. I think Tommy will pull through, but he may drop a set or two.

(20)Jerzy Janowicz vs. (WC)Jordan Thompson

Jerzy Janowicz has suffered injury issues already in January, and was forced to pull out of the Hopman Cup. Then, in his only warm up match back in Sydney, he was crushed by Alex Dolgopolov 2 and 2. JJ made noise at the AO last year for his famous “how many times” meltdown over a line call, and this match against Australian Wild Card Playoffs winner Thompson is very interesting. Jordan beat three of his up and coming compatriots in December to earn the Wild Card and the nearly top 300 Aussie pushed Richard Gasquet to a third set tiebreak in the Kooyong exhibition, showing his talent. I will go out on a limb and say Thompson will pull off this big upset in front of the home fans and knock JJ out of the tournament, giving the Aussies something to smile about in week 1.

(3)David Ferrer vs. Alejandro Gonzalez

These are normally the type of routine opening round matches Ferrer feasts upon and takes care of in straights, but the January 2014 edition of David Ferrer is playing nothing like the versions we are used to and he has suffered losses to Daniel Brands and Rendy Lu in January. Further, he’s failed to make an ATP final in either Doha or Auckland. Colombian Alejandro Gonzalez is going in the opposite direction as Ferrer: he has broken into the top 75 and reached the final of the Sao Paulo hard court challenger in January. He doesn’t have a whole lot of ATP world tour experience, playing challengers mainly, but he certainly has talent. With Ferrer struggling, this match is at least worth a look, even though I expect Daveed to pull through.

(28)Vasek Pospisil vs. (WC)Sam Groth

Vashy Pospisil reached the semis in his warm up tournament in Chennai, but had to retire in that match with a back strain, putting a question mark on his health going into the AO where he will make his main draw debut this year. He had a career year in 2013, and a promising future seems ahead. Aussie Sam Groth is also a player on the rise rankings-wise, though not as meteorically. Groth won 2 rounds in Brisbane and lost in the opening round of Sydney giving him a 2-2 record this year, all on hard courts in Australia. If you haven’t seem him play before, he’s similar to Ivo Karlovic: an absolutely monster serve and a lot of tiebreaks, but very poor at most else, making his matches usually go long and keeping them close. Depending on Vasek’s health he should get through, but with a few lucky tiebreaks Groth could pull this out.

Nadal’s quarter:

Rafa won his warm up tournament in Doha, even though he looked rusty at points during that week. After surviving Tomic, he will face Kokkinakis/Sijsling and then get what should be a great match against Gael Monfils, who he beat in 3 sets in Doha a couple of weeks ago in round 3. Monfils needs wins over a pedestrian Ryan Harrison and Tobias Kamke/Jack Sock. Sock is coming off quarters in Auckland, and with Monfils looking to be healthy and in great form that match could be an absolutely classic showdown.

Nishikori/Matosevic will face qualifier Dusan Lajovic or French wild card Lucas Pouille in round 2, and waiting in the wings for another massive round 3 encounter is an in-form and healthy Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt won ATP Brisbane and has also looked good in the Kooyong classic exhibition. Hewitt opens with the out-of-form veteran Italian Andreas Seppi in round 1, and then Robin Haase/Donald Young, all winnable matches. Hewitt beat Nishikori in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago, and they both play similarly. I expect the same result again.

11 seed Milos Raonic struggled a bit in the Hopman Cup, and to me he is a question mark right now even though he clearly has the talent to leave a mark in Melbourne. Raonic opens with Dani Gimeno-Traver, a clay courter, in what should be a routine match, followed by the veteran Victor Hanescu (who played well in Doha) or qualifier Peter Gojowczyk, a Doha semifinalist. After that, expect Klahn/Dimitrov in round 3, another match that has upset potential. In my own bracket, I’m going with Dimitrov, who won their only outdoor hard court meeting last year in Brisbane. It’s a risk, but either way that match, if it happens, should be a good battle of young guns. Klahn/Dimitrov will face streaking Auckland finalist Rendy Lu or qualifier Jimmy Wang in round 2.

5 seed and Sydney Champion Juan Martin Del Potro is apparently down to just 2 tennis racquets, still playing with his lucky charms from his US Open title a few years ago. Those 2 racquets will face qualifier Rhyne Williams, then Auckland semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut/Tim Smyczek in round 2. JMDP didn’t look great at points this week in Auckland, with some rust showing and body language lacking, like Nadal in Doha. Towards the end of the tournament he seemed to have worked some things out and cleaned up his game, making him look much more formidable than he did a couple of days ago. Del Potro could face Benoit Paire in round 3. Paire has played a bit disappointingly in January, going 2-2 in ATP matches, but he certainly has the talent. He’ll open with qualifier Frank Dancevic and then will need to beat the talented young Aussie Nick Kyrgios or the veteran grinder Benjamin Becker in round 2 to reach Del Potro.

Murray’s quarter:

The defending AO finalist will face Go Soeda in the opening round and then a qualifier in round 2, Vincent Millot or Wayne Odesnik, and one of Feliciano Lopez/Somdev Devvarman/Michael Llodra/Qualifier/Michael Berrer in round 3. Murray was upset by Florian Mayer after just one win in Doha, and he also lost to Hewitt in the Kooyong exhibition, showing that the rust is still there for the Scotsman. However, his first three matches do not look to be that challenging, and I’m sure he hopes to play himself into form and stay healthy so he can play better when he faces stiffer competition.

Auckland champion and 13 seed John Isner will face qualifier Martin Klizan before meeting Federico Del Bonis or qualifier Blaz Rola in his first two matches. From there, it will most likely be a quality third round clash against one of his rivals, Philipp Kohlschreiber, whom he just beat in Auckland. Kohli is not in the best of form right now, but with the relatively unnotable Aljaz Bedene and Michal Przysiezny/Horacio Zeballos as his first couple of opponents, he should be a safe bet to reach the third round.

10 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who helped France win the Hopman Cup, faces Filippo Volandri in round 1 and Julian Reister/qualifier Thomaz Bellucci in round 2. A real test comes in the third round, as Marin Cilic, who has looked pretty good in his January comeback to ATP action and has winning history in Melbourne, is his most likely opponent. Tsonga, a former finalist, also has good history in Melbourne, and form and fitness probably favor him at the moment should they meet. Cilic faces Marcel Granollers and Daniel Brands/Stephane Robert for his first two matches. Brands could also sneak his way into the third round and perhaps trouble Tsonga.

6 seed and Brisbane finalist Roger Federer opens with Aussie James Duckworth before Radek Stepanek/Blaz Kavic in round 2. Fernando Verdasco/qualifier, Ze Zhang/Teymuraz Gabashvili/Sergiy Stakhovsky are his third round possibilities. Stako famously upset him at Wimbledon last year, and he comes off the semis in Sydney where he played some great tennis. Verdasco is a former semifinalist down under, but all in all I expect Fed to get through the first three rounds without too much trouble.

Ferrer’s quarter:

The Ferrer/Gonzalez winner will face Steve Johnson, who played well in Auckland, or Adrian Mannarino in round 2. After that, Ferrer could likely see Sydney quarterfinalist Alex Dolgopolov, who has looked much better in January 2014 than he did last year and is now working with formerly entertaining French shotmaker Fabrice Santoro as his coach. Dolgo lost to Ferrer in 3 sets in Doha and they have played close matches in the h2h. The question is, is Dolgo ready to get to the next level and beat him? Now may be the time. Dolgo will need to beat qualifier Ricardas Berankis and Jeremy Chardy/Jesse Huta Galung in his first two matches to reach that point.

14 seed Mikhail Youzhny, who retired in his warm up tournament in Chennai and enters the AO without much tournament match practice, opens with JL Struff. Next up would be Florian Mayer/qualifier/Denis Kudla in round 2. Mayer is a potentially dangerous unheralded player who played well in Doha in reaching the semis. Kudla is also solid. However, I expect Colonel Youzhny to get to round 3 and face Janowicz/Thompson or Pablo Andujar/Albert Ramos, as all are very winnable matches in an open section.

The Haas/Garcia-Lopez winner will face Edouard Roger-Vasselin/Carlos Berlocq in round 2. Roger-Vasselin, a finalist in Chennai, is also a threat to Haas, assuming he gets past round 1. I picked ERV over Haas in my own bracket. Vesely/Anderson or qualifier Dominic Thiem/Joao Sousa will be the round three opponent in this section, making it essentially wide open for the taking.

7 seed Tomas Berdych, who bounced out early in Doha, his only warm up, faces Aleksandr Nedovyesov in round 1. Next, he should see the Di Wu/Kenny De Schepper winner in round 2, which is a very easy start for which he should be thankful. However his kryptonite, Ivo Karlovic, is lurking in round 3. Dr. Ivo has to get past Dodig, of course, and then Jan Hajek/qualifier Damir Dzumhur. Karlovic is the one who bounced Berdych out of Doha and he knows how to beguile the powerful imposing Czech. A would-be third round clash will have huge implications for the rest of the draw section.

Djokovic’s quarter:

Novak will face Lukas Lacko round 1, Albert Montanes/Leo Mayer in round 2 and probably Sydney semifinalist Dmitry Tursunov in round 3. Tursunov needs to beat Michael Russell and Denis Istomin/Marcos Baghdatis to get there. Baghdatis has a history of success in Australia, but his form is atrocious right now. Istomin is pretty much average. Overall, Novak shouldn’t drop a set in his first three matches, and they should all be routine.

15 seed Fabio Fognini injured himself in Chennai and was in doubt to play the Aussie Open. He opens with fellow mercurial headcase Alex Bogomolov in round 1, but with the winner getting Jarkko Nieminen most likely in round 2, Nieminen should be the third round entrant from the section. He opens with Dudi Sela.

Ernests Gulbis faces Juan Monaco, who has not played anything but exhibition matches since last Fall, but has a positive h2h record against the Latvian. Gulbis/Monaco will face Santiago Giraldo/Sam Querrey in round 2 of an interesting section. Querrey has been so-so in his return from injury and Santi is a shotmaker who can perhaps pull something off.

9 seed Richard Gasquet, who injured himself in Doha but played the Kooyong exhibition, faces a qualifier, and then Lukasz Kubot/Nikolay Davydenko in round 2. He shouldn’t drop a set before meeting Lukas Rosol/Tommy Robredo/Julien Benneteau/Pablo Carreno Busta in round 3. Robredo pulled out of the Hopman Cup with injury issues, while Rosol, PCB and Benneteau are all players who have exaggerated good and bad weeks.

8 seed and Chennai champion Stan Wawrinka will face Andrey Golubev, followed by Mikhail Kukushkin/Alejandro Falla in round 2 and one of Groth/Pospisil/Matt Ebden/Nicolas Mahut in round 3. Certainly an easy start for the Swiss, and he should appreciate the draw god’s gift.

Dark Horses (one for each quarter of the draw): Gael Monfils, John Isner, Mikhail Youzhny,
Ernests Gulbis

Monfils played some awesome, acrobatic tennis in Doha and he seems focused and fit. He has beat Rafa before as mentioned, so there is always that chance he could make some magic happen in Melbourne and bust into the fourth round, where he has the talent to make anything happen the rest of the way.

Isner is in great form coming off the Auckland title, and with his big serve he’s a threat to most players. With Murray rusty, he has a shot at the quarters or even the semis, assuming he can get past that test. Before that, he needs to handle Peppo Kohlschreiber in round 3 again.

Youzhny wears the Dark Horse tag the best, because he benefited from the draw rather than because of his current form. The Russian has a serious shot at the semifinals if he can simply play solid tennis and keep his mentality together. Florian Mayer/Denis Kudla could be a difficult round 2 test, but in round 3 he could get a lowly ranked player or a seemingly way out of form Jerzy Janowicz, and then a struggling David Ferrer or inconsistent Alex Dolgopolov in round 4. Youzhny dominates the hard court h2h vs Ferrer (leading 5-1). As mentioned, Ferrer has really played poorly in January by his standards, with bad losses to Daniel Brands and Rendy Lu on his record.

In the quarters, I expect him to do battle with Ivo Karlovic or Tomas Berdych. Karlovic is 3-0 career against and Berdych he has always been competitive with, meaning just like that he could be in the semis against Djokovic, a tremendous result.

Ernests Gulbis is a basically a fall back dark horse for most events. He certainly has the talent and the approach to beat top players, but has struggled to put it all together and also avoid bombing out early in slams. Monaco will be an interesting round 1 test, before meeting Querrey and Nieminen I expect, which isn’t the easiest road. But if he is in form against Djokovic, maybe he could grab a set off of him. The round of 16 would be a good showing for Gulbis.

Week 1 Predictions (round of 16 matchups)

Nadal d. Hewitt

Hewitt is in the form to make this a classic match, but at this point in their careers I just have to go with Rafa to get to the gear he needs to get this done. Hewitt is interestingly 3-1 career on hard courts against the Spaniard, including a win at the AO, but those 3 wins came in the 2004/2005 period where Rafa was just getting started and Hewitt was a top 5 established player in his prime. They last met on hard courts in 2008.

Del Potro d. Dimitrov

They met twice last year with Del Potro winning both indoor meetings and needing 5 total sets to do so. I expect the same here, but Dimitrov could grab a set.

Isner d. Murray

As mentioned, Murray is rusty, and Isner is rocking right now. However, Big John is 0-3 career against Murray, including a straight set loss at the 2010 AO. Form has to favor Isner to make it 1-3 and have a nice breakthrough in a slam.

Tsonga d. Federer

Their meeting at the AO last year went 5, with Federer prevailing in a great match, and the outdoor hard court h2h favors Federer 4-2. However, going off of current and recent form, Tsonga is actually playing a bit better, and I think he will pull this off and get himself to the quarters. It shouldn’t be a straight set affair, however.

Karlovic d. Roger-Vasselin

A round 16 of battle between unseeded players, these two have met three times, with Dr. Ivo leading the h2h 2-1. ERV won their only outdoor hard court meeting last year, though, and they both benefit from the draw, with Karlovic having the personal edge against Berdych, and Haas being seemingly out of form. Ivo is more experienced and he should advance in 4 or 5 sets, perhaps all tiebreaks.

Youzhny d. Ferrer

Youzhny is 5-1 career against Ferrer on a hard court, and with Ferrer seemingly struggling, he should expand upon that h2h and get this done. It will likely be a battle, though.

Wawrinka d. Gasquet

Not much of a h2h to go on between the world number 8 and the world number 9. Wawrinka has a win on clay last year in an epic 5 setter at the French, and Gasquet won in ’06 indoors on carpet in Paris. Yet again, current form dictates that Wawrinka, a former AO quarterfinalist who plays well in Melbourne, will grab the win. This would set up a rematch of AO 2013 with Novak, a year removed from what was likely the best match of 2013.

Djokovic d. Gulbis

Djokovic is 2-1 on an outdoor hard court against Gulbis, but they last met in 2011. Ernie could give him a bit of trouble, but Novak has been an absolute machine since falling to Nadal in the 2013 US Open final last fall. I don’t expect him to have any trouble before the final with what looks like a smooth draw.

Picking the rest of the way

Quarters:

Nadal d. Del Potro

Del Po won their last hard court meeting in Shanghai this past fall, but Nadal is 2-1 overall on outdoor hard courts against the Argentinian. JMDP beat him three straight times in 2009, so if Del Po dials it back to ’09 dynamite form he could also pull this off, especially if Nadal doesn’t play sharp. Your gut tells you that you just have to go with Rafa to continue on, and your gut is right.

Tsonga d. Isner

This has the potential to be a great match, and very close. The outdoor hard court h2h is 2-2, with Isner winning their first two meetings and Tsonga winning their last two, both of which were at the Hopman Cup (including a couple of weeks ago where Tsonga won 7-6, 6-3). Both seem to be playing well and as I said, I could see both winning, but Tsonga has better history at the AO so I think he will get through, probably in 5 sets.

Youzhny d. Karlovic

Youzhny is 3-0 career against Karlovic, with two outdoor hard court wins and an indoor hard court win on his record, and thus I will go with the Colonel in this matchup. Their last two meetings have gone the distance, so this could easily be another 4/5 setter.

Djokovic d. Wawrinka

Djokovic is 6-0 career on outdoor hard against Stan, but the only thing worth really talking about is their two absolutely epic clashes last year in slams: the AO and US Open meetings that went 5 sets both and both were in contention for match of the year. The AO meeting finished 12-10 in the 5th and they both put absolutely everything they had into that match. The question is, are we looking at another match like that?

Semis:

Nadal d. Tsonga

Nadal is 5-1 career against Tsonga on an outdoor hard court, but Tsonga does have that 2008 AO semifinal win to fondly look back on for inspiration. He straight-setted Nadal there, and though it was now six years ago, it could happen again. I don’t expect straight sets here.

Djokovic d. Youzhny

No matter who Djokovic ends up facing in the semis, he should beat them in straight sets. If it is Youzhny, he is 4-0 career on outdoor hard against the Russian and beat him in 4 sets at the US Open last fall. It really should have been straights, as he dominated the proceedings of that match.

Final:

Djokovic d. Nadal

After losing to Rafa in 4 sets in the US Open last fall, Novak recalibrated his game and beat Nadal twice in straights in their final two fall meetings (Beijing and World Tour Finals in London). The h2h between them is long and intense. Specifically, the outdoor hard court h2h is 10-5 Djokovic, but they are both so familiar with each other and know what they need to do beat each other, it’s merely a matter of execution on who the winner will be. Based off of current form, I’ll go with Novak, probably in 4 sets, to repeat as AO champion.

Their only AO meeting in the 2012 final is also worth noting: it finished 7-5 in the fifth and was an absolutely grueling affair that Novak won. They battled each other so intensely, neither could stand for the trophy presentation.

Got all that? Good. All hail the happy slam!