2014 ATP Marseille Preview, Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
ATP Marseille
Open 13
ATP World Tour 250
Marseille, France
February 17-February 23, 2014
Prize Money: €549,260
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Richard Gasquet (9)
2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (10)
3: Ernests Gulbis (24)
4: Andreas Seppi (31)
The two top 10 Frenchmen are in Marseille, and then there’s a drop off in quality après ca.
First Round matchups to watch:
Tobias Kamke vs. (WC)Kyle Edmund
The young rising Briton Edmund has a nice chance at pulling off an upset and winning his second career ATP main draw match against Kamke, who is just 1-3 this year. Edmund gave Vasek Pospisil a good match in Chennai at the start of the year, and that is his only 2014 tournament action but he’s a talented player and I think he will pull this off.
(5)Ivan Dodig vs. (WC)Albano Olivetti
Accomplishment and ranking favors Dodig by a large margin, but the Croat is struggling with a 2-4 tournament mark on the year. Olivetti plays very well at French indoor events, including a quarterfinal as a qualifier in Montpellier a couple of weeks ago. He is a deserving wild card recipient, and I think the big server will make the best of it and grab an upset win.
Dustin Brown vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Dreddy Brown beat RBA on indoor hard courts at the Mons challenger 4 years ago in their only h2h meeting, and his form is good, coming off semifinals at the Bergamo Challenger, an indoor hard court tournament.
RBA returns from a 2 week injury layoff after struggling in the Davis Cup and has to be on upset alert for this one. If he’s rusty, the big serving Brown could pounce, but this one is a very hard match to judge.
Top Half:
Montpellier finalist Richard Gasquet, who lost in the second round of Rotterdam, opens with Blaz Kavcic or Thanasi Kokkinakis, and it should be Gasquet vs. Olivetti/Dodig or Edmund/Kamke in the quarters. Kokkinakis got a wild card into this event, and he’s very talented, but he’s struggled post AO and retired in Rotterdam qualifying.
Olivetti or Kavcic have a nice chance at quarterfinal points. Gasquet beat Olivetti in Montpellier, also in the quarterfinals.
Rotterdam semifinalist Ernests Gulbis, who found some great form in Holland, will take on Brown/RBA in round 2. The winner will face one of Nicolas Mahut/Kenny De Schepper/qualifier/Jan Hajek in the quarters. That one is a very weak open section and Mahut, a qualifier, or King Kenny should capitalize.
You would think Ernests Gulbis belongs in the quarters, but that cannot be guaranteed given the streakiness exhibited by the Latvian. If it’s Gulbis vs. RBA round 2, there is some bad blood in that matchup.
Bottom Half:
Defending and 2 time Marseille champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is struggling a bit, having lost in the second round of Rotterdam. He will open with Rotterdam semifinalist Igor Sijsling or struggling veteran Nikolay Davydenko, and it should be Tsonga vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin in an all French quarterfinal.
ERV, who is playing pretty well this year, including a recent quarterfinal in Montpellier, faces a qualifier before Sergiy Stakhovsky/qualifier in round 2. Sijsling was in poor form before getting red-hot in Rotterdam and he is very unpredictable right now.
Andreas Seppi is the 4 seed, but he’s just 1-4 in 2014, and his opening match will be against Lukas Lacko/Michael Llodra, both of whom are struggling themselves, especially Llodra.
One of those 3 will find enough form to reach the quarterfinals where their opponent will be Julien Benneteau/Jesse Huta Galung/JL Struff/qualifier. Benny and Huta Galung have both lost 2 straight matches on indoor hard, while Struff is coming off the final of the Bergamo challenger, thus he or the qualifier will have the best shot at the quarters in this very weak section.
Dark Horse: Jan-Lennard Struff
JL Struff comes off the finals in Bergamo, and he is in an incredibly weak, out-of-form section, opening with a qualifier, then Huta Galung/Benneteau and Seppi/Lacko most likely in the quarters. Struff could very well find himself in the semis.
Predictions
Semis:
Gasquet d. Gulbis
Roger-Vasselin d. Lacko
This tournament is hard to predict, but indoors in France has to favor Gasquet. He is 2-0 against Gulbis in the h2h, so I have him in the final.
Tsonga is struggling, and though he is 4-0 career against ERV, including 2-0 on indoor hard, Roger-Vasselin is playing well and I think he will have a breakthrough here. He already has an ATP final this year in Chennai.
I’ll go with Lacko to sneak into the semis over Seppi and Struff, but I don’t see a path for any of them into the final. The h2h is 2-1 in favor of ERV should this matchup take place, but Lacko won their last meeting last year in Tokyo.
Final:
Gasquet d. Roger-Vasselin
Gasquet is 3-0 career against ERV, but they haven’t met since 2011, and never on indoor hard before.
Even though Gasquet isn’t in the best of form, I don’t think he has to be to win this. It’s a weakened field and he is playing at home on a surface he adores.
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