2014 ATP Monte Carlo Preview, Picks
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The clay court season will begin properly in Monte Carlo, where most of the top players will be competing in the third Masters 1000 event of the season. Some look to continue their momentum from spring, while others look to regain form on European red clay.
ATP Monte-Carlo
Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Monte-Carlo, Monaco
April 13-March 20, 2014
Prize Money: €2,884,675
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)
3: Stanislas Wawrinka (3)
4: Roger Federer (4)
5: Tomas Berdych (5)
6: David Ferrer (6)
7: Milos Raonic (11)
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12)
Notable absences include Murray, Haas, Nishikori and Gasquet for this non-mandatory Masters event.
It’s still a strong field.
First round matchups to watch:
(13)Mikhail Youzhny vs. Andreas Seppi
Youzhny is playing a tournament for the first time since Dubai and he’s a disappointing 3-5 this season so far, but he got a good first round draw in Andreas Seppi. Mikhail is 4-0 against the Italian veteran, which includes a win on clay. Seppi was 1-1 in Davis Cup singles play on clay last, and has been up and down this season sporting just a 5-9 record.
If Youzhny is rusty, Seppi could upset the seed, but otherwise Mikhail should find his way into round 2.
(12)Grigor Dimitrov vs. Marcel Granollers
An interesting matchup, in that ranking and level of play should favor Dimitrov and this looks like a reasonable round 1 match for him. But Granollers has a 2-0 h2h, with both matches taking place on hard court including one last year, and he’s into the final of Casablanca on clay after entering the event in very poor form. Granollers makes his living on the dirt, but he could be fatigued for this one coming off the long run in Casa, as Dimitrov looks to increase his ranking with more consistent deep runs in Masters 1000 tournaments.
He will need to win matches like this to do so.
(17)Alex Dolgopolov vs. Ernests Gulbis
When they met for their first and only time in Monte-Carlo 3 years ago, Gulbis romped 6-1 6-4, but with the Ukrainian number one having an 18-9 record this year, which includes a clay court final in Rio and wins over the likes of Nadal, Ferrer, Wawrinka and Fognini already. He has to be somewhat of a favorite in this matchup.
Gulbis is a solid 15-6 on the season for his part, and has wins over Del Potro, Dimitrov, Gasquet and Tsonga, thus he is also sporting some confidence. Both are fan favorite players with a lot of personality and flair. Fireworks have to be expected in this one and both are dangerous lurkers in the draw.
Top Half:
Top seed Rafael Nadal won 8 straight Monte Carlo titles from 2005-2012 before losing the final last year, and he has to be hungry to win MC Rolex Masters title number 9 this season. Rafa opens with a struggling Gilles Simon or a qualifier, and should ease his way into the round of 16 to face Youzhny/Seppi or perhaps Pablo Andujar/Edouard Roger-Vasselin.
I don’t expect Rafa to have much competition before at least the semis.
6 seed David Ferrer, who has failed to make the semis in either of his last two events (thus has seen his ranking slide), opens with Igor Sijsling/Jeremy Chardy and then should face Dimitrov/Granollers round 3 unless Jarkko Nieminen/qualifier have something to say about that.
Dimitrov-Ferrer would be an entertaining match up. Ferrer has a 3-1 h2h but Dimitrov won the last meeting on indoor hard last year and Ferrer has one win on clay in 2012.
A struggling Stan Wawrinka, who is just 5-3 in his last 3 events (IW, Miami, Davis Cup) looks to rebound on clay, a favored surface. The Swiss will get a rough round 2 matchup, however, as Marin Cilic/Fernando Verdasco will be his opponent. Verdasco is in the Houston final this week and will probably be exhausted, but an-in form Cilic has been good all year and is a dangerous unseeded player. Wawrinka is 3-0 on clay against Cilic and thus he’ll have to be the favorite, as Cilic is just 2-2 in his last 4 matches. Stan or Marin should have it a bit easier in the round of 16, as Houston finalist Nicolas Almagro/qualifier/Nicolas Mahut/Dominic Thiem await them. Almagro is accomplished but likely tired, and Thiem is maturing quickly but not quite at a top tier level yet.
Milos Raonic will need to get past Federico Delbonis/Rendy Lu to reach the round of 16. Delbonis comes off semis in Casablanca and is good on clay, giving him an upset chance against the Canadian, who is far more comfortable on a fast surface. Tommy Robredo/qualifier/Julian Benneteau/Jurgen Melzer await in the round of 16, as Benny, Melzer and Robredo are all struggling veterans. Robredo comes off an opening round loss on clay in Houston, Melzer hasn’t been healthy and has been rusty, and Benneteau had a Davis Cup debacle. The qualifier has a good chance at a surprise run. This is a rather weak section, even though it doesn’t look as such on paper.
Bottom Half:
Defending champion Novak Djokovic, who has won both Masters 1000s this year, opens with Benoit Paire or a qualifier. A match with the gifted Paire could be a treat, but I don’t think the Frenchman is quite up to snuff yet to challenge Novak in any manner.
Djoker should meet Kevin Anderson/Gael Monfils in the round of 16, though Ivan Dodig/qualifier are also options. Anderson was bounced in his first match in Casablanca and Monfils pulled out of Casa with a nagging injury sustained in practice and is unsure about being 100%.
If Gael is on, it could be trouble for the field, but Djokovic should be fine.
Tomas Berdych faces Robin Haase/Dmitry Tursunov and then most likely Dolgopolov/Gulbis in the round of 16, in what would be a big match of top class. Benjamin Balleret/Casablanca finalist Guillermo Garcia-Lopez are also options in this section. Berdych is 1-0 on clay against Gulbis and 4-0 overall against Dolgopolov, thus he should be the favorite to be the quarterfinalist out of this tough section.
Roger Federer, who normally doesn’t play MC, will face Ivo Karlovic/Radek Stepanek in a legacy round 2 matchup that he should cruise through. Jerzy Janowicz/a pair of qualifiers/Lukas Rosol await him in the round of 16. Janowicz is seeded but in abysmal form, thus watch out for Rosol or a qualifier to make a run.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looks to boost his poor early season with some good results on clay, and he will open with Philip Kohslcreiber or Simone Bolleli in round 2. Kohli has lost 3 straight matches and is 1-2 against Tsonga on clay. I expect Jo to get through and earn himself a battle with Fabio Fognini most likely in the round of 16, though Joao Sousa, Roberto Bautista Agut or Vasek Pospisil could have something to say about that in a section that has many talented players. Fognini defends semifinal points here and was key for Italy in Davis Cup, but there have been questions about his health. Sousa is good on clay but lost in round 2 of Casablanca in a surprise, and RBA is one of the few Spaniards who does not favor clay over faster surfaces, though he has played well this season.
Dark Horses: Federico Delbonis and Ernests Gulbis
Delbonis is good on clay, as he won a clay court title this year in Sao Paulo and comes off the semis in Casablanca. If he upsets Raonic, he’d have a chance at the quarterfinals. Gulbis, meanwhile, can also play some clay court tennis but he must get past the seeds Dolgopolov and Berdych if he were to reach the quarterfinals.
Predictions:
Quarters:
Nadal d. Ferrer
Cilic d. Raonic
Federer d. Fognini
Djokovic d. Berdych
Nadal dominates Ferrer on clay, I have a feeling Cilic is slightly better than Raonic on clay, Fed express should roll through Forza Fognini and Djokovic has the edge, both mentally and physically, against Berdych.
Semis:
Nadal d. Cilic
Djokovic d. Federer
Nadal on clay beats almost everyone, especially in MC, and Djokovic has outclassed Fed recently. Given the surface, I expect that to continue.
Final:
Djokovic d. Nadal
Novak has won his last 3 meetings with Rafa, but Nadal is 3-1 in the last four matches on clay between the top two players in the world. Even with that, Novak won the title here last year against Nadal, and though it is hard to parse I’m going with the Serbian number 1 over the Spanish number 1.
Tennis Atlantic 