2014 ATP Munich Preview, Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
ATP Munich
BMW Open by FWU AG
ATP World Tour 250
Munich, Germany
April 28-May 4, 2014
Prize Money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Fabio Fognini (13)
2: Tommy Haas (14)
3: Mikhail Youzhny (15)
4: Gael Monfils (24)
Munich boasts 3 top 20 players and a solid overall field for a 250.
First Round matchups to watch:
(WC)Alexander Zverev vs. Jurgen Melzer
Junior world number one Zverev is German and gets a wild card here. He will face off with the veteran lefty Melzer, who won his first two matches of the season in Barcelona where he reached the third round. With Melzer still feeling his way back from injury, Zverev has at least a reasonable chance of making this a match, and though I still expect Melzer to get through given Zverev’s relative lack of experience (one career ATP main draw match last year), an upset is possible.
(5)Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Denis Istomin
Istomin has never played Kohli on clay, but he is 3-0 career against him overall and Kohlschreiber is coming off a quarterfinal round retirement in Barcelona. Istomin comes off quarters in Bucharest, where he upset Thomaz Bellucci. The 5 seed has a bit of a chance of falling in the opening round, though I still think Peppo prevails given the surface.
Top Half:
Fabio Fognini, who comes off an unsportsmanlike, embarrassing tank in Barcelona round one (he retired down 0-6 0-4), will face Ivo Karlovic or Dustin Brown in round 2. With both players, especially Karlovic struggling, he should be safe for the quarters. Dreddy and Dr. Ivo are two of the biggest servers on tour and a ton of aces, even on clay, should be produced in that round 1 match.
In those quarters, it should be Fognini vs. one of Nikolay Davydenko/Federico Delbonis/Jiri Vesely/Ivan Dodig. Davydenko continues to struggle while Delbonis last lost R1 in Monte Carlo. Vesely reached round 2 in both Casablanca and Bucharest, while Dodig returned to some form and reached the third round in Barcelona.
The quarterfinalist here is a tossup, and Dodig defends semifinal points here.
Gael Monfils, who retired in the Bucharest semis, faces the Zverev/Melzer winner and I think nobody but Gael has any clue what form he is going to be in for this tournament. Assuming he doesn’t pull out, the quarterfinalist between those 3 players is hard to pin down, but my gut leans Melzer, though Monfils beat him in Munich last year (3-0 overall h2h on clay).
The quarterfinalist will face Feliciano Lopez/qualifier/Peter Gojowczyk/Sergiy Stakhovsky in the quarters. Lopez comes off an opening loss in Barcelona to Dodig, while Stakhovsky comes off quarters in Bucharest. Gojowczyk retired in his last match in Barcelona qualies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-jC72g3oXs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrMOT91R7hg
Bottom Half:
Mikhail Youzhny, a former champion here, is in atrocious form, having lost two straight on clay in Bucharest and Monte Carlo. He will face a qualifier or Dudi Sela, as the qualifier has a decent shot at the quarterfinals. The quarterfinalist is set to face Kohlschreiber/Istomin or Michal Przysiezny/Marinko Matosevic. Kohli,a two time former champion and defending finalist in Munich, or Istomin are most likely.
Defending champion Tommy Haas, who last played in Indian Wells and has had a rough season with just a 9-7 record this year, will face Alejandro Falla or Jarkko Nieminen in his first match. Neither of those opponents are in good form, and assuming nothing is off with Haas, he should be in the quarters against Andreas Seppi/Lleyton Hewitt/qualifier in what is a weak section.
Seppi lost in the opening round in Bucharest and Hewitt hasn’t been able to win consecutive matches in any tournament since taking the title in Brisbane at the start of the year. Both open with qualifiers and the qualifiers both have good chances at victory.
Dark Horse: Jurgen Melzer
Melzer won two matches in Barcelona in his second tournament back from injury and he’s a former semifinalist in Munich. Assuming he gets past Zverev, Monfils being in questionable form could allow him to will himself into the quarters and then perhaps the semis in what would be a huge confidence building result for him.
Predictions
Semis:
Fognini d. Stakhovsky
Haas d. Kohlschreiber
Fognini is hard to predict, but if he cares this week and he’s healthy, he should have no trouble reaching the final against whomever he faces in the semis. Haas-Kohli would be a rematch of the Munich final last year, their only meeting on clay and Haas won it.
It’s a hard pick but I think he also reaches the final.
Final:
Fognini d. Haas
Fognini beat Haas twice on clay last year, and though he’s notoriously hard to predict, on paper he’s the strongest player in the field and should win the tournament.
Tennis Atlantic 