Tennis Atlantic

2014 ATP Madrid Open Preview
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast

It’s time for the next clay court masters tournament of the season, the Mutua Madrid Open from the Magic Box in Madrid, where players are looking to either continue their run of good form or find some form as the clay court season continues on.

ATP Madrid
Mutua Madrid Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Madrid, Spain
May 4-May 11, 2014
Prize Money: €3,671,405

Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Rafael Nadal (1)
2: Novak Djokovic (2)* Djokovic withdrew and will be replaced by a lucky loser
3: Stanislas Wawrinka (3)
4: Roger Federer (4)
5: David Ferrer (5)
6: Tomas Berdych (6)
7: Andy Murray (8)
8: Milos Raonic (9)

Along with the late withdraw of Djokovic, only the injured Richard Gasquet is notably missing in terms of top 10 players, and only Gael Monfils and Vasek Pospisil are absent in terms of the top 30.

First round matchups to watch:

Jurgen Melzer vs. Juan Monaco
Melzer is 0-4 against Monaco on clay and just 1-6 overall against him, but they haven’t met on clay since 2007. Melzer, though still working his way back from injury, might be in slightly better form, having played the last two weeks, while Monaco hasn’t been in action since Houston where he lost in round 2. Melzer is 3-2 in his last five on clay and in decent form, seemingly improving. This is a hard prediction, but I’ll go against the h2h and say Melzer advances.

(16)Tommy Robredo vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Robredo and RBA have met twice overall with a split h2h, and Robredo won the only clay meeting in 2012 but it went three sets, as did their hard court meetings. Both these players seem equally matched and competitive. RBA is 2-2 in his last four, while Robredo is 3-2, all of those matches taking place on clay. Robredo probably has a very slight edge here, but RBA winning this Spanish duel wouldn’t surprise me.

(13)Fabio Fognini vs. Alex Dolgopolov
Fognini should be a favorite given this is clay and he’s the higher ranked player, along with being in an ATP final this week in Munich, but Dolgopolov is 2-1 career on clay against him, including a clay win in Rio this year (where Fognini was admittedly exhausted) and a 4-1 overall H2H. Thus, the matchup style seems to favor Dolgopolov between these two talented shotmakers who sometimes have wavering focus. Dolgo has lost two straight, however, and he’s looking to return to form, as he has played some fine matches this year but hasn’t been so great most recently. Depending on how Fognini plays in the Munich final, he could be favored or a slight underdog here.

Ernests Gulbis vs. Jerzy Janowicz
Janowicz won their only clay meeting, but Gulbis has an overall 3-2 advantage in the h2h and he’s in better form, simply because Janowicz has been beyond abysmal this season. He has a 7-match losing streak and is below .500 on the year. Gulbis had lost three straight, but he surprisingly made the semis in Barcelona on clay, albeit without facing a seeded player and he should have the edge to reach round 2.

Top Half:
Defending and 3-time Madrid Champion Rafael Nadal will try yet again to at least reach a clay court final, something he has to the shock of nearly everyone failed to do in two straight tournaments. He was bounced by David Ferrer in Monte Carlo and Nicolas Almagro in Barcelona, both times before reaching the final in what were poor losses.

Something is awry with Nadal, but he’s so good on clay he still should be untroubled by Melzer/Monaco. His first test could come against Tommy Haas, who lost in the semis of Munich and is still finding his form after returning to the tour. Haas must beat a qualifier and Jarkko Nieminen/Robin Haase to reach the third round.

Current Portugal Open finalist Tomas Berdych, who has taken advantage of the weak field there and is looking solid, faces Kevin Anderson or Radek Stepanek in his first match. Then, he should get a really tough test against Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16. The Bucharest champion must beat Pablo Carreno Busta, which he has done once before on clay 4 years ago, and then Marcel Granollers or Marius Copil. Dimitrov just beat Granollers, a Portugal Open quarterfinalist, in Monte Carlo. Grisha is 2-1 career against Tomas and this would be their first clay court meeting. Given the context, I think Dimitrov will go through to the quarterfinals from this section.

3 time Madrid champion Roger Federer, who is 35-7 in his career in Madrid, will face a Frenchman in round 2, Benoit Paire or Gilles Simon, with both players struggling. Fed should face RBA/Robredo in the round of 16, as the winner of that match meets Andreas Seppi/Fernando Verdasco in round 2. Seppi comes off quarterfinals in Munich, but has just been so-so this season. I expect Federer to reach the quarterfinals regardless of who emerges as his round of 16 opponent.

Andy Murray is playing his first clay court tournament of the season (he has played 4 DC rubbers on clay this year), and he will get a very tough test in round 2 against Nicolas Almagro. Almagro just has to get past a qualifier. Almagro won their only clay meeting in 4 sets at the French in 2008 and Murray has won the other two meetings off of clay, with Almagro 7-2 in his last 9 matches on clay. He seems to be in form as long as his foot his healthy. He’s had a nagging injury with that for a couple of tournaments. I expect an Almagro vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga round of 16 match, as the Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Tsonga, who has not had a great season thus far, only has to get past Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Lleyton Hewitt or a qualifier to reach that stage of the tournament.

Tsonga is 3-0 on clay against Nico and 6-0 overall, but if Nico is healthy, I still think he will advance to the quarterfinals, because Tsonga has simply been forgettable this season.

Bottom Half:
With Djokovic out, a lucky loser will will face Marin Cilic or Joao Sousa in round 2. Sousa is struggling, having lost 4 straight, while Cilic reached quarterfinals in Barcelona but has cooled down somewhat from his strong early start. I expect Cilic to get through and face Fognini/Dolgopolov or Janowicz/Gulbis. Cilic and Gulbis have the best chance at the quarterfinals from this section, but Dolgopolov just defeated Gulbis in Monte Carlo. Ernie is 2-0 against Fognini in their careers on clay, thus the round of 16 participant is a toss-up here.

Monte Carlo semifinalist David Ferrer has never played that well in Madrid, holding just a 14-11 career record. He arrives off an opening round loss in Barcelona and will face his countryman Albert Ramos or Nicolas Mahut in his first match. Ramos qualified and reached round 2 in Munich, but got destroyed by Ferrer in Buenos Aires this year on clay, and thus Ferrer should reach the third round where one of John Isner/Philipp Kohlschreiber/qualifier awaits. Isner and Kohli face qualifiers first and will probably renew their rivalry in round 2. Isner won their only meeting on clay in 2012 in Rome and also won their meeting in Auckland this year. He lost his only match on clay this season in Houston, though, and Kohschreiber also comes off a bad opening round loss in Munich. Neither player is particularly in great shape and the qualifier has a chance to reach the third round, but if not, I’m slightly favoring Isner to meet Ferrer. Given the h2h in favor of Ferrer (4-1 overall and 1-0 on clay), it should be Ferrer in the quarters, as he has a draw that should please him.

Monte Carlo champ Stan Wawrinka faces Dmitry Tursunov or a qualifier in round 2, and with Mikhail Youzhny/Federico Delbonis/qualifier/Feliciano Lopez awaiting in round 3, I expect Stan to reach the quarterfinals without dropping a set. Tursunov just got bageled in Portugal, Youzhny has been atrocious this season and lost early in Munich, and Lopez did the same, while Delbonis has been disappointing on clay this year for the most part.

Milos Raonic, who lost his second match in Portugal to Carlos Berlocq and didn’t look that good there, faces Lukas Rosol or Jeremy Chardy in his first match. Rosol comes off the final in Bucharest and though he is 0-1 against Raonic, that was a hard court meeting. On clay, things should be more competitive and Rosol over Raonic is one of my upset specials this week. Rosol/Raonic/Chardy should get a tough round 3 opponent as Barcelona champ Kei Nisihkori, who looked great on clay at that tournament, has Ivan Dodig up first and then Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/Pablo Andujar. GGL gets a wild card and he’s had a good clay season, but Nishikori should reach round 3 and also the quarterfinals.

Dark Horses: Nicolas Almagro and Lukas Rosol
Almagro should reach the quarterfinals this week as a non-seeded player given his lucky draw, and Rosol will need to upset Nishikori (and Raonic), but feasibly could also make the quarterfinals as a non-seed.

Predictions:
Quarters:
Dimitrov d. Nadal
Federer d. Almagro
Wawrinka d. Nishikori
Ferrer d. Cilic
The rule of thumb is never pick against Nadal on clay, but he’s clearly out of sorts and he has dropped a set to Dimitrov in all four of their career head to head meetings, including the meeting on clay in Monte Carlo in 2013. And in 2013, Rafa was playing quite well. With something being off, and Dimitrov having beaten Djokovic in Madrid last year, proving he can win here against a big name, plus the fact he comes off a title and should be full of confidence, I’ll go with the upset and say Grisha gets through against a below 100% Nadal.

He’s been close every time including a competitive match at the AO this year where he lost in 4 with 2 of Rafa’s sets won in tiebreaks. I think he gets over the hump this time.

Federer is 3-0 on clay and 5-0 overall against Almagro, though they haven’t played in 7 years. With his positive history in Madrid, he should get through easily enough. Wawrinka is 2-0 by the same token against Nishikori, including a win on clay 4 and 2 a couple of seasons ago. Assuming Stan plays like he did in Monte Carlo, that one should also be an expected result.

Djokovic-Ferrer is interesting in that Daveed is 3-1 against the Serb on clay, but Novak won the last clay meeting in 2011 in Madrid. With Ferrer not looking that sharp, he should advance and get closer to evening up that h2h.

Semis:
Federer d. Dimitrov
Wawrinka d. Ferrer
Big Fed and baby Fed have only met once in their careers, with Federer winning last year indoors in Basel, but Dimitrov continues to improve, and could pull it off, but with Federer continuing to have a nice comeback season from the struggles in 2013, and his record in Madrid standing head and shoulders above everyone else, he should reach the final.

Wawrinka just beat Ferrer in Monte Carlo and has won their last two meetings on clay. Given form also favors him, he should get through if they meet.

Final:
Federer d. Wawrinka

Wawrinka outlasted Federer in Monte Carlo, overcoming a h2h that strongly tilts to Federer including a 4-2 overall h2h on clay which includes a win in Madrid in 2010 in straights. All that said, given this is Madrid clay and the Magic Box, I think Federer will get him back if they renew their rivalry. Wawrinka is now the Swiss number 1 in ranking, but for Swiss fans, Federer will be number 1 in their hearts and minds until he retires.

He’s looking to show he’s not too long in the tooth to bounce back here in Madrid.