2014 ATP Dusseldorf, Nice Previews & Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
I’m back from a short hiatus due to a move with previews of the clay 250 tournaments in Dusseldorf and Nice. Thse are the final tune ups before Roland Garros for many players.
ATP Dusseldorf
Dusseldorf Open
ATP World Tour 250
Dusseldorf, Germany
May 18-May 24, 2014
Prize money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Philipp Kohlschreiber (29)
2: Marcel Granollers (31)
3: Andreas Seppi (34)
4: Joao Sousa (41)
No top 25 player in Dusseldorf and a host of seeds looking for some form makes this is a very wide open event.
First round matches to watch:
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Jurgen Melzer
10 years the younger, PCB comes off qualifying in Rome before an opening round loss to Ivo Karlovic, while Melzer reached the third round and scored wins over John Isner and Marin Cilic. Melzer seems to be steadily improving since his comeback from injury and is up to a competitive level now. With that momentum, I think he will get past PCB, who can be inconsistent at times.
Top Half:
Top seed and home German Philipp Kohlschreiber snapped a 3 match losing streak in Rome as he beat Jerzy Janowicz and Tommy Robredo before falling to Novak Djokovic in a surprising 3 sets. Kohli has had a rough year and is just 5-5 on clay this season, but his trend finally seems upward. He faces Dusan Lajovic or Teymuraz Gabashvili first, most likely Gabashvili, who has beaten him once on clay 10 years ago (Kohli won their other two meetings, however, including a Wimbledon 5 setter in 2010). Gabashvili qualified in Madrid and has had a career season, thus he could make the quarterfinals, but Kohlschreiber still seems the odds-on favorite in the section.
It will be a weak quarterfinalist out of the section below, as it comes down to Rendy Lu/Dustin Brown/Michal Przysiezny or a qualifier. Brown has lost two straight and isn’t that great on clay, Lu rarely plays clay and last played a hard court challenger in Asia, and Przysiezny has endured a miserable season and has only one match with 12 losses all season. Przysiezny hasn’t won a match in months. If the qualifier doesn’t come in and make the quarters or better, I would have to go with Lu, given he’s the only player with any form, though I expect Kohlschreiber (or Gabashvili) to blow through whoever it is in this section in the quarters.
Andreas Seppi is a negative 5-7 on clay this season and has lost three straight on the surface, including two straight opening match losses in Madrid and Rome. The losses were to competitive opponents (Tommy Haas x2 and Fernando Verdasco) but still it has not been the best of seasons for the Italian and he could use some form going into RG. Seppi faces Marinko Matosevic or Adrian Mannarino first, and given neither is good on clay he should be safe to reach the quarterfinals. Matosevic has had a decent clay court season by his standards though and deserves some credit.
Seppi vs defending finalist Jarkko Nieminen seems like the most likely quarterfinal match up in a battle of veterans. Nieminen seems to have finally broken the bad slump by reaching the third round in Rome, where he lost to Rafael Nadal after beating Igor Sijsling and Robin Haase. Nieminen is 3-0 career against Seppi and 2-0 on clay, and though neither has been impressive this season, I’d say Seppi has been slightly better. This is a hard judgement call in the quarterfinals. I should also add Nieminen must beat Denis Istomin. Jarkko has a winning h2h record, though Denis has reached two quarters on clay this year, and a qualifier to reach the quarterfinals.
Bottom Half:
Marcel Granollers will face Benjamin Becker or defending champion Juan Monaco in his first match. Monaco has lost two straight, albeit to good opponents (Rafael Nadal and Tommy Robredo) and Granollers won a 3 setter on clay against him last year. Neither player has been very good recently, but I think Granollers has a slight edge as he did reach the second round in Oeiras and Rome.
It will be yet another weak quarterfinal opponent for the seed as Ivo Karlovic, who is just 1-4 this clay court season, is the most likely quarterfinalist from a section that has his first opponent Tobias Kamke, who is poor on clay, a qualifier, and 19-year-old Serbian wild card Nikola Milojevic. The qualifier will have a shot at the quarters, but otherwise Granollers/Monaco should safely make the semis.
The seriously struggling Joao Sousa will face Melzer/PCB first, and though he is at least in my opinion a good player, his record of 6 straight losses, all on clay, speaks for itself. He is just 3-8 on the surface this year and a number of his losses are of the very bad variety, thus he seems entirely sapped of confidence with limited tread on his tires at the moment. I expect Melzer or PCB to make the quarters and probably meet Igor Sijsling, who was a semifinalist here last year and has to defeat Jiri Vesely and Dudi Sela/Nikolay Davydenko in round 2. Davydenko is a shell of himself and Sela is no threat on clay, so Sijsling doesn’t have to be at his peak level to reach the quarters.
Dark Horse: Jurgen Melzer
Dusseldorf could potentially be Melzer’s big comeback tournament as the draw sets up for him. After his quality play in Rome, he may finally be getting his game and his confidence back to a level where he can take advantage. PCB and Sousa will hang in there on clay but are beatable right now. Granollers/Monaco in the semis aren’t that threatening compared to how Melzer is playing right now, meaning the final would be his real test, against most likely Kohlschreiber.
Predictions
Semis:
Kohlschreiber d. Seppi
Melzer d. Granollers
Kohli and Seppi have met a bunch of times. The h2h on clay is an even 1-1. Kohli beat Seppi this year in Dubai and has won the last two meetings. Given the form factor and the home advantage, it should be Kohlschreiber in the final.
Melzer is 2-0 against Granollers with a win on clay. I think he makes the final this week.
Final:
Kohlschreiber d. Melzer
Kohlschreiber just beat Melzer in Barcelona, though the Austrian veteran didn’t have much match practice in advance of that and they have both beaten each other on clay making this possible final somewhat of a toss-up. However, I think Peppo will just have that extra edge with the home crowd and will win this, probably in 3.
ATP Nice
Open de Nice Cote d’Azur
ATP World Tour 250
Nice, France
May 18-May 24, 2014
prize money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: John Isner (11)
2: Ernests Gulbis (17)
3: Gael Monfils (24)
4: Gilles Simon (30)
Nice brings in three of the top 25 for a solid-enough pre-slam 250 tournament.
First round matches to watch:
Bernard Tomic vs. Martin Klizan
A match-up of two formerly promising players who have gone through patches of disappointing performances. Tomic is finally back on tour after an injury sidelined him and excluding a weird tank in Miami, he is 1-2 since returning and is still finding his feet. He played qualies in Madrid and Rome. Klizan has had a different path, as he lifted the trophy in Munich last and is seemingly in excellent form with a well above .500 record this season. Given this is clay and the wide form gap, Klizan should frankly breeze past Tomic, but he lost in 3 to him on indoor hard in their only meeting and this is more of a gut check match for Tomic than anything else, where winning a set would be on the right track.
Top Half:
John Isner, who followed up a third round showing in Madrid with an opening round loss in Rome, will face fellow big server Kenny De Schepper in round 2 or a qualifier. His first test should come against French veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu who can still put together quality showings from time to time, though he is past his prime. PHM faces a qualifier and then Mikhail Kukushkin, who he just beat a few weeks ago, or Federico Delbonis. Delbonis has lost two straight, thus the second career meeting between PHM and Isner seems likely. PHM very famously beat Isner 18-16 in the fifth set of the French two years ago, and I think he will win a much shorter meeting as he played well in Bucharest and qualified in Madrid.
Gilles Simon, who is an even 3-3 in his last 6 matches, including a 3-set loss to Nadal in Rome in his last match (where he took the first set tiebreak and forced a second set tiebreak but lost it and lost the plot from there). He will face Steve Johnson or the very dangerous lurker Dominic Thiem in his first match. Thiem seems soon to be a top 30 player on a consistent basis, perhaps the new Grigor Dimitrov type young star, but he did retire in his last match in Madrid after qualifying for yet another ATP main draw and could be rusty. I give Thiem a great chance to upset Simon and reach the quarters. With two straight third round showings, he seems close to breaking through big time.
Oeiras champion Carlos Berlocq will face Julien Benneteau, who last played a challenger and is looking to regain some form, in round 1. It should be Berlocq against a qualifier or Nicolas Mahut in round 2. Berlocq could reach the semis, but I tip Thiem/Simon to do so.
Bottom Half:
Ernests Gulbis will face Klizan/Tomic in round 2 and either one of those matches will be fun to watch. Gulbis reached the third round in Rome and quarters in Madrid, losing to David Ferrer twice and he is playing well on clay against solid competition in all the big tournaments. All that said, Klizan could trouble him as they have never met, and I feel that round 2 match is a toss-up.
Expect Gulbis/Klizan against one of Dmitry Tursunov/Aleksandr Nedovyesov/Filippo Volandri/Robin Haase in the quarters in what is a very porous section. Tursunov is really struggling, though he did win a match in Rome (had lost four straight before that). Nedovyesov has lost five straight and is in terrible form. Volandri has lost two straight and was poor before a decent showing in the Rome Challenger against weaker competition, and Haase has lost three straight including two straight opening round losses. You can flip a coin to pick the quarterfinalist, but Gulbis/Klizan are pretty certain for the semis.
Gael Monfils and Albert Montanes are expected to reprise their meeting in the final here last year in round 2, as Montanes only needs to beat Matt Ebden to set that up. Monfils hasn’t played since Bucharest, while Montanes has lost two straight. Montanes dominates the clay h2h 4-1, but Monfils won the last meeting last year on clay in 3 sets and most of their meetings went the distance on clay. I’ll edge Monfils to reach the quarters and he will get a very beatable opponent, one of Edouard Roger-Vasselin/Alejandro Gonzalez/Borna Coric/qualifier.
ERV has lost 3 straight and is poor on clay, though his losses to Kohlschreiber, Tsonga and Dimitrov aren’t that bad, the latter two coming in 3 sets, while Gonzalez qualified in Rome. Coric is a very talented young player, who at just 17, has already played some big matches and scored some good wins, but I don’t feel it is quite his time for a breakthrough yet.
Monfils/ERV is the most likely quarter with Le Monf in the semis
Dark Horse: Martin Klizan
Klizan was a successful dark horse campaigner in Munich, where he lifted the trophy, and he could follow that up in Nice as long as he can get past Tomic/Gulbis first. The quarterfinalist, my guess is Haase, is beatable, and Monfils/Montanes/other aren’t that imposing in the semis. Unless Monfils is in Sliderman mode, one could believeably make the case that Klizan will take the title in Nice this week.
Predictions
Semis:
Mathieu d. Thiem
Gulbis d. Monfils
I’m thinking it will be a battle of Old vs. New in the top half semi, and it could go either way, but i’ll go with experience and Mathieu. In the bottom half semi, it would be fun to see Gulbis take on Monfils in their second career meeting. Monfils won at the French in 4 sets last year, but I think Ernie will get him back as he is in good form.
Final:
Gulbis d. Mathieu
PHM is surprisingly 3-0 against Gulbis including a win on clay in 2012, but Gulbis is fresher and in better form. Unless he has a brain freeze, he seems the favorite to take the title this week.
Tennis Atlantic 