2014 ATP Atlanta, Umag and Gstaad Previews & Picks
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
A trio of 250 events are on tap for the ATP world tour this week: two on Europe in clay, and of course, the start of the summer US Open Series in Atlanta on outdoor hard courts. Since I no longer live in Atlanta, we unfortunately do not have onsite coverage from the tournament this year like we have had the previous two years.
BB&T Atlanta Open
ATP World Tour 250
Atlanta, Georgia, USA
July 21-July 27, 2014
Prize Money: $568,805
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: John Isner (12)
2: Kevin Anderson (17)
3: Gael Monfils (23)
4: Vasek Pospisil (34)
Richard Gasquet pulled out of Atlanta, so the tournament now has two top 20 players in the field, both of whom met in the final last year.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Marinko Matosevic vs. Victor Estrella
Matosevic is playing his first tournament since Wimbledon with a strong grass court season overall. His recent performances have very nearly propelled him into the top 50. Estrella reached his first career ATP semifinal in Bogota at the age of 33 and he played some great tennis in the Colombian capital, including a straight sets upset victory over Richard Gasquet. Matosevic has a stronger career record and is better on hard courts, but Estrella has the mojo. This match will be interesting, but I don’t see Estrella being able to rebound so quickly, so Matosevic should advance.
(9)Sam Querrey vs. Steve Johnson
Surprisingly, the two top 70 ranked Americans have never met before, but they will meet in the opening tournament of the US Open series. Querrey has not played since Wimbledon, while Johnson has had a career year so far. They both do their best on faster surfaces, and the form advantage favors Stevie J. He should get past Sam here.
Lukas Lacko vs. (WC)Nathan Pasha
ATP journeyman Lukas Lacko will take on UGA tennis star Nate Pasha in what should be an intriguing match. Pasha got a wild card into qualies here the last two years, and both times he pushed his opponent to three sets before losing both matches. Lacko will be a heavy favorite, but he comes off a very poor showing in the Granby Challenger and he has always been known as an inconsistent player. I give Pasha a puncher’s chance to pull off a great upset victory here, and it is worth watching to see what the NCAA player can accomplish.
Top Half:
Local boy John Isner, the top seed, who has never played poorly in Atlanta, will face Robby Ginepri/Sergiy Stakhovsky in round 2. After that, he will get one of Matosevic/Burgos/Ryan Harrison/Tim Smyczek in the quarters.
Harrison will be under some pressure here, as he is defending semifinal points that he can’t afford to lose given his ranking already outside the top 140. Remember that he had to take a wild card to get main draw entry here. Harrison beat Matosevic in Atlanta last year, but I think that result will flip this time and we will see an Isner vs. Matosevic quarterfinal.
Gael Monfils, making his Hotlanta debut, will face Jack Sock or Alejandro Gonzalez. Sock played well in Newport where he reached the semis, and he has a bit of a dark horse shot here. Yet Monfils, who is playing for the first time since Wimbledon, beat him at the AO this year in straights and will likely reach the quarterfinals. Monfils should face Denis Istomin at that stage. Denis the Menace has a qualifier and Pasha/Lacko as his first two opponents. That’s a very easy route to quarterfinal points. Monfils has two indoor victories against Istomin including one this year, but Istomin had a good grass court season, so it should be a high quality match.
Bottom Half:
Kevin Anderson came up just short of taking the title last year and should be thirsty for continued success here. He faces a qualifier in his first match, and then one of Rendy Lu/qualifier/Matt Ebden/Benjamin Becker in the quarterfinals. That’s an easy-breezy route for the top South African player to get to the semifinals and he may not drop a set along the way. Both Lu and Becker have had patches of success this season and Lu likely has the best chance at the quarterfinals.
Vasek Pospisil still cannot find his form since returning from his back injury, and he is in serious trouble of taking a big tumble down the rankings soon. He still has that bye seed line for this tournament and his first opponent will be a qualifier and then Querrey/Johnson in the quarters.
Atlantan Donald Young could spoil the party though. He faces Dudi Sela first. Vashy and Stevie J are very similar players in terms of their strengths and weaknesses, but Steve is playing better right now and has a 2-0 h2h edge, so I have Johnson through to the semis.
Dark Horse: Jack Sock
Steve Johnson is also an unseeded dark horse this week, but Sock gets the designation. Gonzalez, his first opponent, isn’t known to be a particularly gifted hard court player and Monfils has always struggled with consistency. Should he upset the Flying Frenchman, Istomin in the quarters and then Isner/Matosevic in the semis would be his next two opponents. He just upset Isner in Newport after losing three previous meetings, including a meeting in Atlanta in 2012. Sock has the momentum right now.
Predictions
Semis:
Isner d. Monfils
Anderson d. Johnson
Isner and Monfils have a lengthy history against each other, and Isner comes out on top in the hard court h2h 4-2. Atlanta is one of the few places that Isner will have more crowd support than Monfils and that should pull him through a potential semifinal meeting.
Anderson and Johnson have met in Auckland and Delray this season already and the h2h record is split. This match could go either way, but Anderson played well here last year and the courts and hot temps seem to suit him well.
I have him going through, probably by winning a pair of tiebreaks.
Final:
Isner d. Anderson
They met last year, and played three nail biting tiebreaks before Isner finally prevailed in the heat. Overall, he has beaten the South African twice in Atlanta and 6 times overall, while Anderson has 4 wins out of their ten meetings. This match would again be all about breaking serve and tiebreaks. A single break of serve or a tiebreak victory likely will swing the needle one way or another if they meet. I’m going with a repeat of last year and Isner to get the title.
ATP Umag
Vegeta Croatia Open Umag
ATP World Tour 250
Umag, Croatia
July 21-July 27, 2014
Prize Money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Fabio Fognini (15)
2: Tommy Robredo (20)
3: Marin Cilic (22)
4: Joao Sousa (35)
The clay 250 in Umag boasts two top 20 players and a solid-enough overall field.
First round matchups to watch:
Albert Montanes vs. (SE)Alex Zverev
Montanes has been in awful form as of late, and that makes this match prime pickings for Zverev, who reached his first career ATP semifinal in Hamburg at the age of 17. After being dealt baked goods by David Ferrer in that semi, the young German may be fatigued. It’s hard to predict how he will do. If he’s fresh, he should win this match. Zverev showed excellent skill and mental fortitude in Hamburg, well beyond his years.
(7)Edouard Roger-Vasselin vs. (WC)Borna Coric
ERV is playing his first tournament since Wimbledon, and he faces another great young player, Coric, who is seeking his first career ATP win after three previous 3 set losses between this season and last. Coric hasn’t had quite the rise that Kyrgios and Zverev have had, but he is due for a breakthrough as well, because he is just as gifted of a player. This week, he has a chance to announce his arrival on the main stage.
Top Half:
Fabio Fognini is struggling and he was upset early by Filip Krajinovic in Hamburg. The defending finalist could face a strong opening test with Zverev (or Montanes) but he is still my pick to get through to the quarterfinals to face one of Roger-Vasselin/Coric/Ante Pavic/qualifier. A hypothetical Zverev vs. Coric quarterfinal would be a battle of the young guns. Pavic/qualifier is not that imposing for Coric/ERV.
I am intrigued to see who will survive this section.
Joao Sousa will face Dusan Lajovic/Teymuraz Gabashvili in his first match. Sousa beat Lajovic recently in Bastad and both players have had good seasons overall. Lajovic comes off the quarters in Hamburg and a Sousa-Lajovic round 2 meeting is an absolute toss-up.
Sousa/Lajovic are likely to face Andreas Seppi in the quarterfinals, as Seppi, who has not had a good season, has a weak section featuring a pair of a qualifiers and wild card Mate Delic with whom to do battle. As a three-time semifinalist and a reliable clay court player throughout his career, the Italian number 2 should reach the quarters.
Bottom Half:
Tommy Robredo has continued to struggle. He’s just 1-2 in his last three matches, but with Benoit Paire/Albert Ramos as his first slated opponent, the defending champion should still be able to reach the quarterfinals. Ramos and Robredo have a 1-1 split h2h with both meetings on clay, and Ramos has qualified for both Bastad and Hamburg in consecutive weeks. Robredo/Ramos are likely to meet Carlos Berlocq in the quarters.
The Argentine has had a solid season, but has lost two straight matches. He opens with a qualifier and should be able to snap his losing streak before facing Pablo Carreno Busta/Paolo Lorenzi. PCB has a chance to sneak in the quarterfinals as well, but form is not in his favor after having lost two straight matches.
2012 champion and local favorite Marin Cilic will face Igor Sijsling/Julian Reister in his first match and then likely Lukas Rosol, who is in great form right now, in the quarterfinals. Rosol must first beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Pere Riba/Jiri Vesely. Rosol made the final in Stuttgart and the quarters in Hamburg, but Cilic, who is playing for the first time since Wimbledon, has beaten him three previous times without dropping a set.
Rosol and Vesely are Davis Cup teammates, so if they meet in round 2, they will know each other’s games very well.
Dark Horse: Dusan Lajovic
Coric, Zverev and Ramos could all make solid runs this week, but Lajovic likely has the best chance at doing the improbable. The in-form Serbian must first get past Gabashvili and Sousa, but after that, with Seppi and one of Fognini/Zverev/Coric/ERV awaiting in the semis, he could find himself in the final this week in what would be his first career ATP final.
Predictions
Semis:
Fognini d. Lajovic
Cilic d. Berlocq
Fognini is an incredibly inconsistent player right now and he very well could crash out with a double bagel in his first match, but if can play anywhere near up to par, the quality of his opponents should allow him to reach the final. Cilic is a local favorite and a strong player overall who should be able to get through to the final, with Berlocq having a slight edge to advance to the semis.
Final:
Cilic d. Fognini
Cilic and Fabio have a 1-1 clay h2h and Cilic beat Fognini in the Umag semis in 2011. With Fognini being terribly inconsistent, Cilic should take another ATP title this week.
ATP Gstaad
Credit Agricole Suisse Open Gstaad
ATP World Tour 250
Gstaad, Switzerland
July 21-July 27, 2014
Prize Money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Mikhail Youzhny (19)
2: Marcel Granollers (28)
3: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (31)
4: Fernando Verdasco (33)
Gstaad has the strong traveling Spanish Armada contingent but just one top 25 player, making it the weakest tournament this week.
First round matchups to watch:
Thomaz Bellucci vs. (Q)Gerald Melzer
The younger Melzer is seeking his first career ATP main draw victory, as he qualified here. Melzer has had a hard time breaking through to this level but he will have a chance against Bellucci, who hasn’t been a good player in a while and has continued to struggle recently. He’s lost two straight on clay and hasn’t had a good result since before the French Open. Melzer should get that elusive first career ATP win in this one.
(8)Dominic Thiem vs. (WC)Viktor Troicki
Usually, the young Dominic Thiem is the focal point of his featured matches, but this time it is Troicki, who is returning from a very contentious doping suspension 12 months later. Troicki has been practicing with his compatriot Novak Djokovic among others to stay in shape. He is playing his first tournament match in a year and he starts from scratch in terms of ranking. There was some contention about whether he would get a wild card here. Gstaad did finally award him one, but Thiem is a tough opponent in any return to the tour. This week, he is seeded for the first time in his career at the ATP level and he has had an excellent season. He won a pair of matches in Hamburg last week and he should give Troicki a good workout as the Serbian seeks to return to his former level, with a serious chip on his shoulder this time.
Top Half:
Mikhail Youzhny will face Filippo Volandri/Kenny De Schepper in his first match. The defending champion has not had a good season and he lost to Zverev in Hamburg, but he should reach the quarters given king Kenny and Super Pippo are in even worse form right now. Youzhny vs. Robin Haase is the expected quarterfinal. That would be a rematch of last year’s final here, though the Dutchman Haase is also struggling and hasn’t had a good season. He faces Aleksandr Nedovyesov first, then one of Gianni Mina or Henri Laaksonen. The Swiss Laaksonen will have a dark horse chance at the quarters, but Youzhny may well reach the semifinals by default this week, thanks to a lucky draw.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will face Juan Monaco/Victor Hanescu first up, then one of Melzer/Bellucci/Dustin Brown/Frederico Delbonis in the quarters. Both Delbo and GGL have lost two straight matches, but they are still likely to be quarterfinalists here, with Hanescu and Monaco both in awful form and Brown too inconsistent to be the pick. I would favor GGL through to the semifinals.
Bottom Half:
Marcel Granollers lost to Thiem in Hamburg and he’s had a poor season overall. However, with his first match against Yann Marti/Daniel Gimeno-Traver, he still should reach the quarters. Gilles Simon is the seed above Granollers. He faces Pablo Andujar first before Blaz Rola/Fabiano De Paula.
This section is likely to be the most competitive: Andujar has a win on clay against Simon and he won three matches in Hamburg, while Simon won just one and has had a poor season. The Spaniard will have a chance at the upset. Rola is the player to watch here however. He’s been rising up the rankings, mostly under the radar, and he just had a good result in a clay challenger in Poland. This is the type of draw he could take advantage of and reach the quarterfinals or better.
Fernando Verdasco will face Andreas Haider-Maurer or JL Struff in round 2, then one of Thiem/Troicki/Andrey Golubev/Inigo Cervantes in the quarters. Verdasco has lost two straight matches where he was a strong favorite, and it’s Thiem who should get through all that and reach the semis over the Spaniard.
Dark Horse: Blaz Rola
As mentioned above, Rola has a realistic path to the semifinals this week, with Simon/Andujar and Granollers both struggling veterans. These small 250 events tend to produce interesting results and Rola could be another player with a breakthrough this year.
Predictions
Semis:
Garcia-Lopez d. Youzhny
Thiem d. Rola
GGL has never lost to Youzhny on clay (4-0) and he has had a better season than the Russian. Thiem-Rola would be a young gun semi, and I like the Austrian to continue his career year and reach his first career ATP final this week in Gstaad.
Final:
Thiem d. Garcia-Lopez
They have never met before, but I’m tipping Thiem to win his maiden ATP title this week. He’s due for one and it should be the first of many, especially on clay.
Tennis Atlantic 