2014 US Open Week 2 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
An exciting first week of action is in the books in Flushing Meadows and most of the big names have survived into the second week, while some new faces also dot the landscape. Here is a look at what has occurred this past week and what should happen the rest of the tournament.
Round of 16 matchups:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (22)Philipp Kohlschreiber
Djokovic has been on fire in his first three matches, putting up a bagel and pair of breadsticks en route to straight sets wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and Sam Querrey. None of his opponents have managed more than 4 games in a set against him. There were doubts going in, but even against mid-level competition those doubts appear to have vanished.
Kohlschreiber, meanwhile, yet again made the round of 16 by knocking out the last American in the draw, John Isner, this time in 4 sets, as the German weathered an assault of aces by the American, and played a trio of clutch tiebreaks to get the victory. He also has wins over Facundo Bagnis and Michael Llodra this week, and has just dropped the lone set to Isner en route to the round of 16.
That said, Djokovic should dispatch the German. He has won 4 of their 5 meetings, and the last 3 meetings going back to to 2010. Kohli has won a set in the last three meetings so this could go 4, but Novak is back in cyborg mode and probably won’t be bothered even that much.
(8)Andy Murray vs. (9)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
That match I was really looking forward to at the start of the week will take place in the round of 16. Murray has had a topsy-turvy week that featured four set wins over Robin Haase in round 1, and Andrey Kuznetsov in round 3. Sandwiched in the middle was a straight sets routine win over Matthias Bachinger. Murray has played clockwork tennis at times, but in the Haase match where he was cramping, and also for a little over a set in the Kuznetsov match, he endured lapses in play and looked like a totally different player on the court. He very nearly avoided a collapse against Haase that would have sent the match to five sets, and going on walkabouts is unusual compared to his previous standard of play before this season.
Tsonga has had less trouble reaching the second week. He won in 4 over Juan Monaco in round 1, but truly did dictate that match, and also won in straights over Alex Nedovyesov, and Pablo Carreno-Busta. He has been aggressive, the forehand has been snappy, the movement loose, and everything appears to be working for the Frenchman early on.
This is, of course, a rematch of their Toronto match earlier this summer that Tsonga won in 3 sets, and I’m sticking with my original prediction that Tsonga will get through to the quarterfinals. Murray has been much more inconsistent and Tsonga is a player who can seize the momentum and punish Murray getting complacent in a way only so many of Murray’s opponents can. Tsonga in 4 is my pick.
(3)Stan Wawrinka vs. (16)Tommy Robredo
Wawrinka has looked comfortable in the two matches he has played. His third round match that was supposed to be against Blaz Kavcic became a walkover when Kavcic withdrew, and his match preparation for this fourth round encounter took place against Jiri Vesely in round 1, a match he won in straight sets, and against Thomaz Bellucci in round 2, a match he won in 4 sets. Both matches featured tiebreaks and were competitive, but Wawrinka narrowly escaped being pushed any further than that as his opponents missed their opportunities to truly open the match up.
Robredo won in 3 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, then had to survive an absolute dogfight against Simone Bolelli in round 2. The Italian peppered his forehand for a two set lead, and then came close to closing the match out in straights before a bad call helped Robredo regain some momentum, and he fought his way back over the tired Italian. In round 3, he weathered an early assault from the young Nick Kyrgios, who won multiple matches in a grand slam main draw yet again, having further established himself as a competitive ATP player. Kyrgios went up a set and a break, but it was one way traffic for Robredo from there on out as he won in 4 sets, most notably with a big third set tiebreak victory that sealed Kyrgios fate.
Robredo has an overall h2h lead of 6-2 on Stan the Man, but Stan did beat him in 3 sets at the AO this year. Robredo had a win last season on hard court and otherwise dominates the series. Wawrinka has looked good, but I’ve noticed some slight blips in his game, and if Robredo isn’t gassed I have a feeling he will capitalize and pull off an upset. It’s against the odds, but I’m going with Robredo in any number of sets.
(5)Milos Raonic vs. (10)Kei Nishikori
Another round of 16 match that should be highly competitive, Raonic has straight sets wins over Taro Daniel in round 1 and Victor Estrella, a great story to follow, in round 3. Estrella, at the age off 33, won his first career grand slam main draw match against Igor Sijsling in 4 sets in round 1, and then reached the third round with a 4 set win over the young Borna Coric. He is a testament to the fact grit and determination go a long way on the ATP circuit. In round 2, Raonic vanquished Peter Gojowczyk in 4 sets. He has won six consecutive tiebreakers this past week.
Nishikori demolished Wayne Odesnik, Pablo Andujar and Leo Mayer without incident. He looks healthy and he’s playing very well.
Raonic and Nishikori have met three times before. Nishikori has a 2-1 lead in the h2h series but both matches won by Nishikori were close and Raonic won their most recent meeting at Wimbledon this year. Nishikori has claim to win this match, but I’m personally going with Raonic in 4 or 5 sets. He has proven to be more consistent and steadily good throughout this season and recently.
(6)Tomas Berdych vs. Dominic Thiem
Berdych has looked strong, easily dispatching Lleyton Hewitt and Teymuraz Gabashvili in rounds 1 and 3, and surviving a strong test by Martin Klizan in 5 sets in round 2. Klizan had Berdych searching for answers throughout their match, but Berdych had that extra edge the Slovak did not to pull himself through.
Thiem is the breakthrough young star of this grand slam like Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon. The young Austrian has had a strong season on the ATP tour and truly earned his place in the round of 16 here. He beat Lukas Lacko in straight sets, his friend Ernests Gulbis in 5 sets from 2 sets down, and Feliciano Lopez in straight sets. Gulbis was injured sometime around the 4th set, but Thiem’s mettle in coming back to win the match was still impressive, and the way he followed that match up with such an easy victory against the veteran Lopez was incredibly impressive. He is improving his hard court game considerably.
Thiem should give a good account for himself there, but I think Berdych has too much game for the young Austrian, who doesn’t hit as heavy on hard courts and prefers to play methodically. Berdych should seize the initiative and win this one in 3 or 4 sets.
(14)Marin Cilic vs. (26)Gilles Simon
Cilic was supposed to be here, and Simon was not, as they both had interesting paths to the fourth round. Cilic beat Marcos Baghdatis, and Ilya Marchenko without dropping a set, then won In 4 sets over Kevin Anderson, he hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been entirely solid.
Simon beat Radu Albot in straights, Federico Delbonis in 4, and David Ferrer in 4 sets over the last week. Simon has had an awful season and I don’t think any experts expected him to do well here, but he’s played a newly aggressive style, taking the ball further up the court and not waiting back solely for his opponents to make errors. This approach at forcing the issue is helping him play better and it is one of the big reasons his form as improved, not to mention his ball striking has just been better this week than it has been all season. Ferrer was bounced early and didn’t appear physically engaged in the match with Simon. He may be injured in some form or fashion.
Simon dominates the h2h with Cilic, leading 4-0, including a 5 set win at the Aussie Open this year, but even still Cilic is the favorite and I’m going with him as well. It’s hard to believe in Simon after seeing how he has played all season, even if he is in vintage form at the USO. Cilic in 4 or 5 sets is my selection.
(7)Grigor Dimitrov vs. (20)Gael Monfils
Two players in excellent form will meet in a star-studded round of 16 match that the crowd will be eager to watch. Dimitrov has rolled over Ryan Harrison, Dudi Sela, and David Goffin, who played well for a set and a half before being vanquished by the Bulgarian number one in 4 sets.
Monfils beat Jared Donaldson and Alejandro Gonzalez without dropping a set, then annihilated his languishing countryman Richard Gasquet, a defending semifinalist, 6-4 6-2 6-2 in round 3. Monfils made the highlight reel again with a flying forehand, and as I said both players are playing some tremendous tennis, true outside threats to top two seeds at the moment.
One of them has to win though, and Monfils is looking to repeat his 2011 victory over Dimitrov at the US Open. This one could go either way but I’m going with my original selection of Monfils. I just think he will have too much game for Dimitrov and throw in kinks he struggles to handle. Look for the match to go 4 or more likely five sets.
(2)Roger Federer vs. (17)Roberto Bautista Agut
Federer is set to meet RBA for the first time, he has looked comfortable this week, winning in straights over Marinko Matosevic and Sam Groth, before winning in 4 over Marcel Granollers. Federer dominated that third round match after a shockingly poor start in the first set, a rain delayed after going 2-5 down helped him regain his focus and though Granollers took the first set, the match was never that close. Groth likewise was flummoxed by how effortless it was for Federer to deal with his serve and volleys, while punishing his weak backhand.
Bautista Agut continues his career year. He had a five set win over Andreas Haider-Maurer in round 1, but he looked much more at ease after that, winning in straights over Tim Smyczek and Adrian Mannarino, neither of whom looked bothered to compete in their matches.
RBA is a good, underrated, player but I don’t see him having the consistency to truly bother Federer. The Swiss maestro should get through this one in straights, similar to his rival Djokovic.
Predictions for the rest of the tournament
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Tsonga in 5
Raonic d. Robredo in 4
Berdych d. Cilic in 4
Federer d. Monfils in 5
Sticking with my original predictions of Djokovic, Raonic, and also Federer in the semifinals. Djokovic’s seemingly improved game in the first week of the USO compared to this summer increases my confidence that he will reach the final even with Tsonga also playing well. Raonic will likely have too much game for a tired Robedo, Berdych/Cilic is a hard selection but Berdych is usually more consistent, and Federer-Monfils should be a battle but I think Federer has a decisive edge.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Raonic in 3
Federer d. Berdych in 4
Djokovic returns serve exceptionally and that gives him a big edge over Raonic. Federer, meanwhile, has lost to Berdych before and could get in a battle with him, but I do think he also reaches the final without too much trouble.
Final:
Federer d. Djokovic in 4
I’ll be the first to admit Djokovic’s odds of winning the tournament have increased considerably after a strong first three rounds showing little weakness, but I do like to stick to my guns and I went with Federer at the start. He hasn’t played poorly either and this final was always going to be competitive. If it goes 5, Djokovic has an edge, which is why I’m saying Federer in a close 4 sets.
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