2014 Mons, Sacramento and Cali Challenger Previews, Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis East Coast
A light schedule of only three Challengers for this week, with Mons and Sacramento being played on hardcourt and Cali on clay.
Ethias Trophy
ATP Challenger Tour
Mons, Belgium
29 September – 5 October
Prize Money: €106,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Goffin (32)
2: Igor Sijsling (72)
3: Jiri Vesely (77)
4: Thomaz Bellucci (79)
5: Dudi Sela (83)
6: Paul-Henri Mathieu (84)
7: Andreas Haider-Maurer (92)
8: Dustin Brown (94)
9: Tobias Kamke (102)
The last direct acceptance is Ilija Bozoljac, ranked 171st. Former world #24 and winner of two ATP tournaments Olivier Rochus received a wild card and will play the final tournament of his career. The next generation is also represented with Kimmer Coppejans receiving a wild card. Paul-Henri Mathieu withdrew due to injury.
Sergiy Stakhovsky withdrew as well in an odd boycott, protesting against Belgium asking the ITF to move their Davis Cup tie to a neutral venue due to the tensions in Ukraine. Tournament director Dominique Monami responded in humorous fashion:
First round match-ups to watch
(5) Dudi Sela – (PR) Steve Darcis
Sela is someone who flies under the radar, but he has rarely been outside of the top 100 in the past seven years. He faces the man who absolutely hammered him during a Davis Cup tie last year, 6-1 6-2 6-2. However, that was on clay, which is clearly Sela’s worst surface. A very interesting match, which can go either way.
(WC) Olivier Rochus – Gerald Melzer
As mentioned, this will be the last tournament for one of Belgium’s greatest players of all time. He might be able to prolong his career for one more match, as Melzer isn’t a hero on hardcourts. Rochus reached ten ATP finals, of which he won two: Palermo in 2000 and Munich in 2006, both on clay. His greatest Masters result was also on that surface, a quarterfinal at Hamburg in 2003. Ironically, Roland Garros is the only Grand Slam where he never reached the fourth round, peaking in the third. The surprise factor rests with his 2-0 record in clay finals and 0-8 on hardcourt and grass, since clay was his worst surface.
Top Half
It’s hard to see anyone other than top seed David Goffin winning here, considering he just comes off a tournament win at the ATP 250 event of Metz. However, he will probably have to face Nicolas Mahut and Dustin Brown to get through to the semi-final, both of them are very dangerous on one of their good days. Also in this half lurks Thomaz Bellucci, who reached the final of Orleans last week, although he has a tricky first round match against Kenny De Schepper.
Bottom Half
This half is fairly open. #2 seed Igor Sijsling has been in dodgy form and might well lose to Sela or Darcis. In the top section, Andreas Haider-Maurer comes off an impressive Challenger streak, but that all took place on clay, so it remains to be seen how he will adopt. There is a chance for #3 seed Jiri Vesely to seriously test Haider-Maurer in the quarterfinal, which is likely to end in a victory for Vesely.
Predictions
Semis:
Goffin > De Schepper
Sela > Vesely
Final:
Goffin > Sela
Sacramento Pro Circuit Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Sacramento, CA, USA
27 September – 5 October
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Sam Querrey (54)
2: Tim Smyczek (99)
3: Bradley Klahn (115)
4: Michael Russell (123)
5: Denis Kudla (124)
6: Peter Polansky (125)
7: Thiemo de Bakker (143)
8: Frank Dancevic (144)
The last direct acceptance is Kyle Edmund, ranked 237th.
First round match-ups to watch
(7) Thiemo de Bakker – (SE) Jared Donaldson
An excellent opportunity for 17-year-old Donaldson to build on his great run at Napa last week, where he reached the semi-final. De Bakker is an extremely streaky player, who could either steamroll Donaldson or easily lose, depending on what mood he is in.
(WC) Stefan Kozlov – Ryan Harrison
It will be interesting to see if 16-year-old Kozlov can beat Harrison, who is playing his worst tennis in a long time. Harrison lost 6-3 7-5 to Donaldson in the first round of Napa last week, something he won’t want to repeat here.
Top Half
Just like last week, you simply can’t look past Querrey: the ranking difference between him and the rest of the field is enormous. The only player from this half I can see beating him is De Bakker, but chances of that happening are still low. #4 seed Michael Russell retired in the first set against Querrey last week, so it’s still a question mark as to whether he has recovered sufficiently.
Bottom Half
This one is really hard to predict. #2 seed Tim Smyczek is the best bet, also considering his final run last week, but he doesn’t have an easy draw with Jordan Thompson, Robby Ginepri/James McGee and Kudla/Ymer on his way to the semi-final. In the top section, #6 seed Peter Polansky lost in the first round last week and now faces Wayne Odesnik, another dangerous player. And if Ryan Harrison somehow finds his game, it would mean trouble for #3 seed Bradley Klahn in the second round.
Predictions
Semis:
Querrey > De Bakker
Smyczek > Klahn
Final:
Querrey > Smyczek
Querrey hammered Smyczek 6-3 6-1 in last week’s final, so it’s hard to imagine a different outcome here.
Claro Open Cali 2014
ATP Challenger Tour
Santiago de Cali, Colombia
29 September – 4 October
Prize Money: $40,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Alejandro Falla (73)
2: Paolo Lorenzi (75)
3: Victor Estrella Burgos (81)
4: Diego Schwartzman (88)
5: Alejandro Gonzalez (93)
6: Horacio Zeballos (96)
7: Joao Souza (101)
8: Facundo Bagnis (122)
The last direct acceptance is Nicolas Jarry, ranked 306th.
First round match-ups to watch
Daniel Munoz-De La Nava – Guido Andreozzi
Andreozzi comes off a good result at the Porto Alegre Challenger, where he reached the semi-final. Munoz-De La Nava has been in good form as well, racking up an 8-3 record in his last three Challengers and losing 7-6(6) 6-4 to eventual winner Victor Estrella Burgos in the quarterfinal last week.
Top Half
Given his latest clay ventures, it’s likely that top seed Alejandro Falla will bomb out in the second round against Munoz-De La Nava, who can profit and reach the semi-final to set up a repeat of last week’s quarterfinal against Estrella Burgos. Andreozzi should be capable of doing the same if he wins their first round encounter. In the bottom section, we will likely see Estrella Burgos and Horacio Zeballos square off, a match-up that should be in favor of Estrella Burgos, who leads their head to head 2-0.
Bottom Half
In the top section, we are likely to see a very interesting quarterfinal match between #7 seed Joao Souza and #4 seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman clearly looked fatigued in the third set of his final against Carlos Berlocq last week, so perhaps that gives Souza an opportunity. In the bottom section, #5 seed Alejandro Gonzalez and #2 seed Paolo Lorenzi are projected to meet, which has been a nightmare match-up for Gonzalez so far, not winning a set in their previous four meetings.
Predictions
Semis:
Estrella Burgos > Munoz-De La Nava
Lorenzi > Schwartzman
Final:
Lorenzi > Estrella Burgos
Just like against Gonzalez, Lorenzi seems to match up well against Estrella Burgos, too. Lorenzi beat him 6-3 7-6(1) in the semi-final of the San Luis Potosi Challenger earlier this year, as well as 6-4 6-1 in the US Open qualifying draw three years ago.
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