Tennis Atlantic

2012 ATP Moscow, Stockholm, Vienna Previews

by Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

There are three events on the ATP tour this week, all in Europe, all 250s and all indoors as the tennis season winds down and players look to make their year-ending mark. There are just three weeks remaining of main draw ATP action before the World Tour Finals and all remaining events are in Europe. The Challenger season will run a couple of weeks longer.

ATP Moscow

Kremlin Cup

ATP World Tour 250

Moscow, Russia

October 15-October 21, 2012

Prize Money $673,150

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)

1: Alexandr Dolgopolov

2: Andreas Seppi

3: Viktor Troicki

4: Thomaz Bellucci

First round matchups to watch:

Jerzy Janowicz vs. Benjamin Becker

Janowicz, a 21-year-old rising Polish player with a career high ranking of 76, has gone through the season being relatively unknown but with a 7-2 record at the ATP level and 3 challenger/futures titles on the year, he appears primed for a breakout performance. Becker, on the other hand, is a wily veteran currently ranked 84 and just 10-12 on the year at the ATP level. He has been recently competing on the North American Challenger circuit and will look to quickly readjust back to Europe.

Andrey Kuznetsov vs. Carlos Berlocq

Kuznetsov, like Janowicz, is a not very well-known rising Eastern European player. In fact, he is ranked one spot ahead of Janowicz at 75 in the world and three spots off his career high of 72. They are also both 21. Kuznetsov has won 4 challenger titles on the year,  including three in a row in September and is hot coming into Moscow. Still, he is only 2-3 at the ATP level this year. Both guys could make runs. Berlocq, while a solid player, doesn’t do his best on hard courts and has a sub .500 record on the year.

Top Half:

Top seed Alexandr Dolgopolov managed to make it to the third round in Shanghai and will open against either Evgeny Donskoy or a qualifier. This match could be primed for an upset depending on which Dolgo shows up as Donskoy is a solid player. After that, the winner could get #5 seed Nikolay Davydenko in the quarters or his first round opponent, Alex Bogomolov, who will be looking to put this rough year behind him. Also in this part of the draw are the big serving Ivo Karlovic and Italian Simone Bolleli.

Thomaz Bellucci will play the winner of Teymuraz Gabashvili vs Flavio Cipolla, and then could meet Janowicz or Kuznetsov in the quarters as they would play each other if they win their first round matches over Becker and Berlocq.

Bottom Half:

Seppi, the ATP Metz finalist, opens against Igor Sijsling or a qualifier in what would be a tough matchup, but it should get easier from there. Seps would get Tatsuma Ito/Roberto Bautista-Agut or a qualifier in the quarters.

Troicki opens against Rajeev Ram or Malek Jaziri and then could face Denis Istomin in the quarters. Istomin plays Bjorn Phau and the winner of Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. Lukas Rosol.

Dark Horse: Kuznetsov or Janowicz

As was mentioned previously in this preview, both Kuznetsov and Janowicz are rising young players who haven’t gotten a ton of attention but are primed for a good run. It’s unfortunate that they would have to play each other in the second round if they both win. Regardless, the winner has a nice chance all the way to the final given their form and the relative weakness and inconsistency of the field.

Predictions:

Semis:

Kuznetsov d. Davydenko

Seppi d. Troicki

Davydenko hasn’t shown the consistency to make the final but Dolgo is even more inconsistent. If he can get the upset, the semi is a toss-up.

Final:

Seppi d. Kuznetsov

It’s a weak field, but Seppi is a reliable enough vet with a solid year and could use another title to cap it off. Kuznetsov is still coming into his own and may not have it all put together to grab a title yet.

ATP Stockholm

If Stockholm Open

ATP World Tour 250

Stockholm, Sweden

October 15-October 21, 2012

Prize Money € 550,000

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)

1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

2: Tomas Berdych

3: Nicolas Almagro

4: Florian Mayer

Stockholm has the strongest field of any ATP event this week.

First round matchups to watch:

Albert Ramos vs. Ricardas Berankis

This is one of those matches where the higher ranked player has a good shot at losing because of form and surface. Ramos is best on clay and he has been in cold form for the entire fall hard court season, losing in the first or second round of every event he has entered. Berankis is not playing that much better, but he did make the quarters in St. Petersburg and plays his best on faster surfaces.

Patrik Rosenholm vs. Gael Monfils

Rosenholm is a Swedish wild card who plays more futures than he does challengers (ranked 438 in the world), but the real question of this match is Monfils health, specifically his knee. He returned after a long time off the tour for injury and made the semis in Metz and the quarters in Bangkok, but in Bangkok he reinjured his knee. There were even rumors that he had suffered a career ending injury or at least something very serious as he withdrew from Tokyo. Yet here he is entered in the Stockholm draw after skipping a couple of weeks and it appears he will play. It will be interesting how he does in this match and beyond and the reality of his physical shape.

Top Half:

Tsonga, the Beijing finalist who lost to Berdych in the Shanghai quarters, opens against Go Soeda or a qualifier and then could draw the somewhat dangerous Feliciano Lopez (who made the 3^rd round in Shanghai) in the quarters. Lopez opens against Paul-Henri Mathieu, still grinding his way back to success, and then could face Sergiy Stakhovsky or a qualifier.

Beijing semifinalist Florian Mayer will face Berankis or Ramos and then could get Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters. Baggy made the third round of Shanghai and the Tokyo semis. He has broken back into the top 40 and is showing flashes of the form that made him a top 10 player. He opens against David Goffin and then would play the winner of Jan Hajek vs. Allejandro Falla.

Bottom Half:

Shanghai semifinalist Berdych will face the winner of Jurgen Zopp vs. Pablo Andujar and could get Mikhail Youzhny or a still dangerous Brian Baker in the quarters. Monfils is also in this part of the draw.

Nico Almagro just came off a tough first round loss to Tommy Haas in Shanghai. He will face a qualifier and then could get Jarkko Nieminen, the Flying Fin from neighboring Finland, who plays Tobias Kamke. Kevin Anderson and Lleyton Hewitt play each other and could use the wins.

Dark Horse: Marcos Baghdatis

Baghdatis is seeded seventh, but if he can get past the higher seeded Mayer, he would be in the semis against Tsonga. It is a tall order to make the final, but the semis are certainly possible.

Predictions:

Semis:

Tsonga d. Baghdatis

Berdych d. Almagro

Final:

Berdych d. Tsonga

Berdych and Almagro could very well play once again. Then, if Berdych and Tsonga both win as they should, they would play a rematch of their quarterfinal match in Shanghai that Berdych won.

ATP Vienna

Erste Bank Open

ATP World Tour 250

Vienna, Austria

October 15-October 21, 2012

Prize Money € 486,750

Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)

1: Juan Martin Del Potro

2: Janko Tipsarevic

3: Tommy Haas

4: Jurgen Melzer

Top Half:

Del Potro has hopefully recovered from his wrist injury and is back in action for the first time since a partial Davis Cup tie and the US Open. He will play a qualifier, then in the winner of Robin Haase vs. Marinko Matosevic in the quarters or the winner of Lukas Lacko vs. Dominic Thiem. This an easy draw for the Argentine.

Melzer is the home favorite who has had a rough year with a sub .500 record. He could use a good run here and meet the winner of Steve Darcis vs. Gilles Muller. If he avoids the upset, Melzer will likely do business against 7 seed Benoit Paire in the quarters. Also in this part of the draw is former finalist and home favorite Andreas Haider-Maurer.

Bottom Half:

Tipsarevic, who suffered a third round loss in Shanghai and is still trying to work his way into the ATP World Tour Finals, will play Ernests Gulbis or Somdev Devvarman in the second round. After that, Fabio Fognini is a real likelihood in the quarters. Another option for Tipsy in the quarters is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

Shanghai quarterfinalist Haas just beat Tipsarevic  and will play Lukasz Kubot or Jesse Levine. Following that, he can expect 8 seed Xaiver Malisse, a qualifier, Matt Ebden or Filippo Volandri in the quarters. This is a very easy draw, though Ebden could come out of nowhere and do some damage.

Dark Horse: Steve Darcis

Darcis has managed to put together a 22-16 record at the ATP level this year, most of it coming under the radar, and is in decent enough form going into Vienna. He also plays his best on fast surfaces. His best result on the year is a semi in Eastbourne and the quarters in Winston-Salem and Nice. Look for him to at least match that in Vienna, if not improve on it, if he can get past Melzer. Del Potro would be a tough semi matchup for anybody, but it isn’t certain he is in perfect shape yet.

Predictions:

Semis:

Del Potro d. Darcis

Tipsarevic d. Haas

Final:

Tipsarevic d. Del Potro

Tipsarevic should be able to get revenge on Haas for the loss in Shanghai and will have an even chance against Del Potro, depending on what kind of shape and form JMDP is in. Tipsarevic has more matches under his belt and ought to grab another title this year.