Tennis Atlantic

2013 ATP Madrid Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

Mutua Madrid Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Madrid, Spain
May 5-May 12, 2013
Prize Money: € 3,368,265

Madrid got rid of the smurf dirt because it drove the ATP mad, and is back on the red dirt this time. It also overlaps with my birthday.

Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes)

1: Novak Djokovic
2: Roger Federer
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Rafael Nadal
6: Tomas Berdych
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
8: Richard Gasquet

Notably, Juan Martin Del Potro is out with a virus.

First round matchups to watch:

David Goffin vs. Fernando Verdasco

A rematch of their five setter at the Australian Open this year, won by Verdasco, both players desperately need a good showing here as they will both continue to drop ranking points if they can’t pull themselves together soon. Verdasco is a miserable 3-8 this year, and 1-7 in ATP events, while Goffin hasn’t been able to string together consecutive wins as a general rule. Clay is known to be the preferred surface of both.

Thomaz Bellucci vs. Florian Mayer

Bellucci has had an up and down season, but did make quarters in Barcelona, while Mayer has improved in recent weeks with semis in Bucharest and quarters in Munich. Bellucci won their only meeting, which happened to be in Madrid in 2011, but I would have to give an edge to Mayer regardless.

(9)Janko Tipsarevic vs. Juan Monaco

Tipsy is playing nothing like the number 10 player in the world right now, as he lost early in Munich to Daniel Brands. Monaco on the other hand, with quarters in Barcelona, seems to be back on track after his own rough slump. Tipsarevic has won their last 3 meetings, but Monaco is playing better right now. With that, Monaco has an edge.

(13)Tommy Haas vs. Andreas Seppi

Haas is looking for a title in Munich, and made the final, while Seppi made the semis in Estoril. Both players are solid on clay and in form, in addition to being wily veterans. It’s hard to believe that they have never met on clay. Depending on the fatigue factor, Haas should probably have the edge.

Top Half:

Novak Djokovic looks to keep it rolling in the Masters events, starting off with Grigor Dimitrov or Spanish wild card Jaiver Marti. After Dimitrov, who could give him a bit of trouble, Novak should get Stanislas Wawrinka or Martin Klizan. Wawrinka made the final in Estoril, and of course, they had that memorable Aussie Open five setter this year, won by Djokovic over a tenacious Wawrinka. Yet Wawrinka doesn’t seem to be at the same level right now, and will likely be a bit tired after Estoril. A qualifier or Marius Copil are also options.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will play Alex Dolgopolov or a qualifier. Dolgo remains dangerous but is totally unpredictable, coming off quarters in Munich. Dolgo won their match last year in Madrid. After that, the winner likely gets Milos Raonic, if Raonic can beat a struggling Nikolay Davydenko, and the Goffin/Verdasco winner. Raonic surprised everyone by making the semis in Barcelona, and he will be looking to solidify his record on clay with another good run.

Andy Murray, who is never very stable on clay, could get trouble against Bellucci/Mayer (he lost to Bellucci in Madrid two years ago), but if he wins he likely faces Gilles Simon, who has only beaten Murray once in 11 tries. Simon would need to beat a slumping Julien Benneteau and a slumping Horacio Zeballos/Jeremy Chardy, in a match of ice cold players who need wins, in the first round, in order to get that far.

Tomas Berdych is the defending finalist, but he really hasn’t looked great on clay this year, and he will face Jerzy Janowicz or Sam Querrey, in what is an interesting first round tussle of the tall. The 2nd round winner should get Juan Monaco in the 3rd round, but Kevin Anderson, a qualifier, and of course Tipsarevic are all options.

Bottom Half:

Defending champion Roger Federer is back on tour this week, and he will play Bernard Tomic or Radek Stepanek. Steps was in miserable form but he did win a match in Munich this week, and Tomic is quite poor on clay. After that, Fed could get Kei Nishikori, who opens with Jurgen Melzer, or Viktor Troicki/Marcel Granollers. Granollers lost in the quarters of a challenger most recently and has not had a good year while Troicki has been up and down, including quarters in Munich.

Richard Gasquet will play Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Feliciano Lopez, then could face Marin Cilic, who lost early in Munich. Pablo Andujar, a qualifier, and John Isner are all options as well.

David Ferrer, who could be the Estoril champ, opens with Denis Istomin or a qualifier, then could face Haas/Seppi, Tommy Robredo or least likely a struggling Marcos Baghdatis. If Ferrer meets Seppi again, it would be an Estoril semifinal rematch.

Rafael Nadal, who has always been a bit finicky in Madrid, blaming a lot of it on altitude. This is the clay event in which he has been historically the weakest, and he will open against Benoit Paire or a qualifier. A Paire match-up would be a rematch of a match in Barcelona easily won by Nadal. After that, Nadal could get yet another Barcelona rematch, this time the finals rematch against Almagro that he won Almagro just needs to beat a qualifier and Fabio Fognini/Mikhail Youzhny.

Dark Horse: Florian Mayer/Kevin Anderson/Juan Monaco

One of these unseeded players will likely find themselves in a Masters semi this week, in what is the weakest and most unpredictable section of the draw and all have trump cards as to why. Mayer is at his best on clay, and again has had a good couple of weeks. He has a nice chance of upsetting Murray: if he beats Bellucci, then he probably gets past Simon.

Anderson has shown he can win on clay in Casablanca this year, and his 2nd round matchup with Monaco/Tipsarevic will be huge. Monaco won their only meeting a year ago on clay in Houston, while he and Tipsy have split meetings on hardcourts. The same applies to Monaco, the most traditional clay courter, and the winner will have a good chance of knocking off Tomas Berdych. It should be a Mayer vs. Monaco/Anderson quarter to decide the semifinalist.

Predictions:

R16:

Djokovic d. Wawrinka
Tsonga d. Raonic
Mayer d. Simon
Monaco d. Berdych
Nadal d. Almagro
Ferrer d. Haas
Gasquet d. Isner
Federer d. Nishikori

Tsonga-Raonic and Ferrer-Haas are the marquee matchups here and could go either way.

Quarters:

Djokovic d. Tsonga
Monaco d. Mayer
Nadal d. Ferrer
Federer d. Gasquet

Nadal owns Ferrer in the h2h and that should continue. Federer could be troubled with Gasquet.

Semis:

Djokovic d. Monaco
Nadal d. Federer

Nadal is better on clay, and more in form.

Final:

Djokovic d. Nadal

Djokovic beat Nadal in Monte Carlo, and the result shouldn’t be any different at an event Nadal likes much less than MC. Djokovic is a machine right now.