Tennis Atlantic

2013 French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com

(June 1, 2013)– Roland Garros has dodged around rain showers and managed to make it through to the final 16 on the men’s side as very upsets have made almost everything go as expected rankings-wise in Paris.

Now to break down the round of 16.

Novak Djokovic vs. Phillip Kohlschreiber

Djokovic hasn’t had too rough of a time in advancing through his first three matches. He didn’t drop a set against David Goffin, Guido Pella and Grigor Dimitrov. Goffin gave him the toughest match of the three, forcing 3 tight sets including a tiebreak. Pella and Dimitrov just proved overmatched, while Kohlschreiber has once again worked his way to the R16 under the radar. He beat hard-hitting Czech youngster Jiri Vesely in 4 sets, getting a walkover against Yen-Hsun Lu and then dispatching veteran Victor Hanescu. Kohlschreiber is a good player, and as I mentioned in the Week 1 preview, has beaten Novak at RG before, but I honestly don’t see that happening this year.

Tommy Haas vs. Mikhail Youzhny

Tommy Haas finally has a good slam run to go with his excellent late career ATP results. He did so by beating Guillaume Rufin, Jack Sock, who upset Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in R1, and another American, John Isner 10-8. That was another tough luck 5-setter for big John, who previously beat Ryan Harrison in 5 sets. Youzhny is a bit more of a surprise, though he was formerly a solid name on tour. He has lost luster in recent years and really wasn’t on many radars, yet still he grinded away against Pablo Andujar, Federico Del Bonis and an exhausted Janko Tipsarevic, who had beaten Fernando Verdasco in 5 sets in round 2 to reach the round of 16. Youzhny actually holds the head-to-head edge 4-3 in this one, including a win just this year on clay in Rome. Haas may be tired, but he has proven the doubters wrong before, and I say he grabs the win here as well.

Rafael Nadal vs. Kei Nishikori

Nadal has spent the most time on court (8 hours+) of any of the top 3 seeds and he has already dropped 2 sets, one to Daniel Brands in round 1 and the other to Martin Klizan in round 2. He did improve over Fabio Fognini, dispatching him in straights. The thing is, at least in the case of the Brands match, his opponent played very well and would have beaten plenty of other capable players, but not Nadal, and not on clay, as Nadal has improved his record to an astounding 55-1 in Paris. Now he will run into the Hope of Japan, Nishikori, who beat Jesse Levine and Grega Zemlja, then followed that up with a win over the Frenchman Benoit Paire. This is their first meeting on clay, but Nishikori has never beaten Nadal in 4 tries, and once again you just can’t go against Rafa at RG.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Richard Gasquet

Wawrinka was probably the biggest question mark going into the tournament. He has had a wonderful year in general, and a fine clay court season, but his health was in question. He has assuaged away those fears as he survived a late comeback push from Thiemo De Bakker to win in 4 sets and then beat Horacio Zeballos and Jerzy Janowicz (who has to be more than just a bit disappointed). Gasquet has avoided tons of fanfare and beat ‘antics enjoyer’ Sergiy Stakhovsky, Michal Przysienzy and Nikolay Davydenko all without dropping a set. These 2 have only met once back in 2006, so I wouldn’t read anything into that as they are almost fresh slates right now. I expect 5 sets and a knock-down-drag-out, but I’ll give a razor thin edge to Gasquet here.

Tommy Robredo vs. Nicolas Almagro

Another left for dead veteran who has found renewed success: Robredo, who used to be one of the top Spanish players, beat Jurgen Zopp, then won grueling 5 set matches with Igor Sijsling and everyone’s favorite showman Gael Monfils. Monfils, of course, once again produced tremendous excitement in wins over Tomas Berdych and Ernests Gulbis, with Monfils-Berdych being worthy of a semifinal and one of the best round 1 slam matches in recent memory. Nico Almagro beat Andreas Haider-Maurer in 4 sets, Edouard Roger-Vasselin in straights and Andreas Seppi, also in straights. Almagro has to be seen as the fresher player. Furthermore, Almagro has beaten Robredo in all 5 of their meetings, including this year in Acapulco, and as much as I appreciate what Robredo has done to get this far, I have to go with Almagro.

Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer

Big South African Anderson beat Ilya Marchenko and Evgeny Donskoy, then toppled Milos Raonic in straights while Ferrer beat Marinko Matosevic, Albert Montanes, and surprise 3rd rounder Feliciano Lopez. The pair have never met on clay but have split a pair of hardcourt meetings, with Anderson winning their match at Indian Wells this year. Anderson is in good form, but so is Ferrer, and he hasn’t shown me any reason why I should go against picking him again.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Viktor Troicki

Tsonga is one of the three Frenchman left and the one most likely to advance. He beat Aljaz Bedene, then routined a zapped Jarkko Nieminen before dispatching fellow Tri-colore Jeremy Chardy to improve his record in Paris. As a side, the first round match between Nieminen and Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu was also one of the better round 1 slam matches in recent memory. It was 5 sets of pure tennis. Perhaps the most surprising name left in the draw, Troicki has had RG success before, but he is ridiculously unpredictable and he put his game together this week to beat James Blake, Dani Gimeno-Traver in 5 sets and Marin Cilic. The head to head is actually tied at 3 all in this one, but Tsonga has won both clay meetings and since he hasn’t dropped a set, I’ll pick him to keep up that pace.

Gilles Simon vs. Roger Federer

Simon avoid a memorable choke against Lleyton Hewitt in the first round.Hhe promptly went down 2 sets against the veteran Aussie and was playing horrendous tennis before kicking it into gear and going up 5-1 in the 5th set after Hewitt looked like he was down for the count. From there, it began to unravel as he dropped game after game, and eventually had to break Hewitt again and serve out the match 7-5 in the 5th. He beat Paolo Cuavas in 4 sets after that and then Sam Querrey in another long 5 setter. Federer is on an opposite path, and is taking care of business like a machine right now rolling over Pablo Carreno-Busta, Somdev Devvarman and Julian Benneteau to reach the 4th round. Fed managed all that without dropping a set and in fact, only dropping 22 games in 3 matches. The head to head is only 3-2, but Federer crushed Simon in Rome recently, and he should do so again.

Predictions:

QFs

Djokovic d. Haas
Nadal d. Gasquet
Ferrer d. Almagro
Federer d. Tsonga

Haas blistered Djokovic in Miami in one of the biggest upsets of the year, but like Dimitrov, I don’t think he can pull it off again, especially on clay. Nadal may struggle a little bit, but a 10-0 h2h vs. Gasquet speaks for itself. Likewise Ferrer has just dominated Almagro, beating him 13 times to none. Federer is also looking like a machine right now and should win. All these matches could in fact be straight sets.

SFs

Nadal d. Djokovic
Federer d. Ferrer

Sticking with the original picks and as confident as I was to start with both of them: Nadal being a machine at RG in what some will call the championship match, and Federer having a clear edge over Ferrer.

Final

Nadal d. Federer

Still going with Nadal to win, but if Federer plays like he is now, this could be much closer than most people thought Federer almost has to be the 2nd favorite for the title now.