2014 @RolandGarros French Open Week 2 Men’s Preview, Picks
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The round of 16 has (nearly) been set in Paris with a few new faces and many familiar names still in the running. Here is both a recap of the stirring action of the first week and a preview of what is ahead at Roland Garros 2014.
Rafael Nadal vs. Dusan Lajovic
To the surprise of hardly anyone, Rafael Nadal has again reached the second week of the French without dropping a set, as he routined Robby Ginepri, the young Dominic Thiem, and Leo Mayer, dropping fewer than 20 games in 3 matches. However, he was complaining about his back after the Mayer round 3 match and has it taped, which he said is affecting his serve. Given his opponent, Lajovic, doesn’t appear to be a formidable challenge he should be ok in this match but it could pose problems in the final potential three matches.
Lajovic has reached the second week of a slam for the first time in his career and he did so by beating Federico Delbonis, Jurgen Zopp and Jack Sock without dropping a set. This section was blown open because of Tommy Haas dealing with injuries that caused him to retire in the first round, and though Lajovic is having a career week, unless Nadal is truly hampered, I don’t see this being much more than Rafa in straights.
Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer
Big Kev rolled past two weak French opponents, Stephane Robert and Axel Michon, before getting a retirement against Ivo Karlovic, who upset Grigor Dimitrov in straights earlier in the week to reach the last of 16.
David Ferrer, meanwhile, crushed Igor Sijsling and a pair of Italians, Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi. Ferrer beat Anderson here last year in straights, and I expect a repeat of that. The veteran Spaniard should again reach the quarterfinals.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Gael Monfils
GGL shocked the 3 seed Stan Wawrinka in 4 sets in the first round, as the Swiss meekly bowed out to the prowess of the all court Spanish veteran, who is having a great year at 30 years old.
He followed up the Wawrinka upset by beating Adrian Mannarino in 4 sets and avoiding a near choke from 2 sets to love up against Donald Young, breaking to win in 5, 6-4 in the fifth. Young did well to reach the third round and played well this week.
GGL had to claw for the victory.
Monfils, meanwhile, may still be dealing with an ankle injury but he beat Victor Hanescu in 4 and JL Struff in straights this week, then won a great circus match against Fabio Fognini in 5 sets. The two players yet again gave the French crowd a show, but it was Monfils who was more focused and with fewer errors.
Monfils is 2-0 on clay against GGL but they haven’t met since 2010. This one is a very hard pick, but I think GGL runs out of magic here and Monfils wins in 4 or 5 sets.
Richard Gasquet/Fernando Verdasco vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber/Andy Murray
These matches have yet to be completed, as they were played late and stopped because of darkness. Verdasco is 2 sets up against Gasquet at the time of writing, while Kohli and Murray are deadlocked at 7-7 in the fifth set.
It’s hard to make a prediction without seeing how these finish, but if I had to pick I’d go with Verdasco vs. Murray being the most likely final 16 matchup. I like Murray to reach the quarterfinals regardless. Gasquet has been fighting through back problems but didn’t drop a set against Bernard Tomic and Carlos Berlocq, but he will need to come back from 2 sets down against Verdasco. Verdasco beat Michael Llodra, then outlasted Pablo Cuevas in 5, coming back from 2 sets down (and avoiding a choke as his opponent ran out of gas after Verdasco had to serve to stay in the match).
Kohli beat Pere Riba and Denis Istomin in straights, then clawed back after dropping two straight sets to win the fourth and get it to 7 all against Murray in the fifth set. Murray beat Andrey Golubev in 4 and Marinko Matosevic in straights prior.
Again, hard to pick this section, but Murray or Verdasco are most likely to get through to the quarterfinals with Gasquet not near 100% and Kohli not reliable enough.
Tomas Berdych vs. John Isner
Tomas Berdych has looked good this week, with wins over Peter Polansky in straights and Aleksandr Nedovyesov in 4 sets, then a 4 set win over Roberto Bautista Agut that was easier than I thought it would be going in.
Isner beat Pierre Hugues Herbert, Mikhail Kukushkin and Tommy Robredo, the latter two in 4 sets. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition, given Robredo struggles against big servers on clay and hasn’t been the most in-form recently, but still it’s his best showing at the French ever.
Anything more is just gravy at this point. Berdych beat him at the French in straights in 2010 and given this is clay, Berd should win in 3 or 4 if he can match the serving and power of Isner and be better with his movement.
Ernests Gulbis vs Roger Federer
I expect a quality, entertaining match between these two. Both their prior clay meetings went 3 sets (ATP matches) and the h2h is 1-1, with both matches coming in 2010.
Gulbis reached the last 16 beating Lukasz Kubot in 4, Facundo Bagnis in straights and Radek Stepanek in the same manner. Fed beat Lukas Lacko and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in straights before needing 4 sets to defeat Dmitry Tursunov.
Gulbis is in some fantastic form right now and is on a winning streak. However, this is Federer, and unless Gulbis plays with razor sharp focus, it’s hard to see him winning.
Fed in 5 is my pick simply because of consistency.
Milos Raonic vs. Marcel Granollers
Milos Raonic beat young guns Nick Kyrgios and Jiri Vesely in straights, then was put to the test against a surprisingly rejuvenated Gilles Simon, finally winning that one 7-5 in the fifth as his serve pulled him through.
Granollers got a retirement against Ivan Dodig, then notched wins over Alex Dolgopolov in 5 and Martin Klizan in 4. He came back from 2 sets down against Dolgo and he’s proven to be a fiery competitor this week, but Raonic is in form and he’s the better player, even on his weaker surface of clay.
They have never met before but I’m going with Raonic. His expected round of 16 opponent, Kei Nishkori, bowed out weakly to Klizan in round 1.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Novak Djokovic
Tsonga hasn’t beaten Djokovic since 2010 and he’s lucky to reach the last 16, as he got gifted with a good draw. The Frenchman beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Jurgen Melzer and Jerzy Janowicz all without dropping a set, as they all played poorly.
Djokovic beat Joao Sousa and Jeremy Chardy very casually before having a bit of a headache against Marin Cilic, dropping the third set and finally closing that one out in 4 sets. Djokovic in 3 or 4 is the pick.
Predictions
Quarters:
Nadal d. Ferrer
Monfils d. Verdasco/Murray/Kohlschreiber/Gasquet
Federer d. Berdych
Djokovic d. Raonic
Nadal could lose if his back is bad or something happens, but realistically have to go with Rafa.
I like Monfils simply because of the home crowd and he’s playing well even with the ankle being iffy. None of the possible opponents look unbeatable. I trust Fed over Berdych in best of 5 format, and Djokovic should outclass Raonic.
Semis:
Nadal d. Monfils
Djokovic d. Federer
Still like Djokovic over Fed and even though his health his iffy, Rafa has already beaten an (in form) Monfils twice this year and he’s 4-0 against him on clay. That makes it unrealistic for me to pick Le Monf any further.
Final:
Djokovic d. Nadal
I picked it at the start of the week, and with Nadal complaining about the back, even if Djoker isn’t perfect I think he now has a clear edge to win the title this week as long as he keeps to form.
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