2014 ATP Bastad, Stuttgart Previews & Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
It’s post-Wimbledon and that means a trio of 250s this week: one on grass in the states and two on clay in Europe. Here is a preview of the two Euro clay 250s for those looking to get their tennis fix post-Wimby.
ATP Bastad
SkiStar Swedish Open
ATP World Tour 250
Bastad, Sweden
July 7-July 13, 2014
Prize Money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: David Ferrer (7)
2: Tommy Robredo (22)
3: Fernando Verdasco (24)
4: Jerzy Janowicz (25)
Bastad has been able to attract four top 25 players to return to clay, a solid field for a 250 event.
First Round matchups to watch:
(7)Carlos Berlocq vs. Julian Reister
Berlocq, who is a solid 12-6 on clay this season, and is the defending champ, will face a possibly difficult opening round tilt with Reister, who has struggled on the main tour but done well on the challenger circuit on almost exclusively clay this season. Reister has a 1-1 h2h on clay with the Argentine.
Berlocq should prevail, but don’t be too surprised if Reister pulls an upset.
Albert Montanes vs. Dusan Lajovic
Montanes beat Lajovic last year in Umag on clay, but the now top 90 Serbian has been rising up the rankings and has improved considerably. He even upset Guillermo Garcia-Lopez at Wimbledon and of course made the second week of the French Open. Montanes has seen his career decline as he is now out of the top 100 and has not played a match since the French Open.
He is still a good defensive dirtballer, but Lajovic, who is skilled on clay, should win this and could do well this week.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (WC)Elias Ymer
The veteran Kazahk Kukushkin will face former top 5 junior Elias Ymer, an 18 year old playing on home soil in Sweden. Kukushkin should prevail, even though he’s a journeyman player, but this is a good test for Ymer, who took Grigor Dimitrov to 3 sets in Bastad last year and is working his way through the challenger and ATP qualies level, It will be the first look at Ymer on the pro level for many.
Top Half:
David Ferrer, who struggled at Wimbledon, but seems to play well in Bastad as a two time champion, will face Pablo Andujar or Victor Hanescu in round 2. In the quarterfinals, he should face defending champion Berlocq, who must beat Reister and then qualifier/Kenny De Schepper.
Suprisingly, Ferrer and Berlocq have only met once, in 2011 where Ferrer decimated him on clay. The match should be closer this time, but I have Ferrer getting through to the semifinals from his section.
Jerzy Janowicz, who improved a little at Wimbledon but has been awful all season, will face Montanes/Lajovic and Lajovic has a strong chance at the quarterfinals or better, assuming Janowicz continues his poor form. Look for Lajovic/Janowicz to face Joao Sousa in the quarterfinals. The Portugese has to beat Pere Riba, who has been playing well on the clay court challenger circuit as of late, and then Kukushkin/Ymer. Sousa has had periods of struggle, but I tip him or Lajovic to make the semifinals as Sousa beat Lajovic at the 2012 French Open in qualifying.
Bottom Half:
Two time Bastad champ Tommy Robredo will open with Paul-Henri Mathieu or a qualifier. Mathieu comes off a challenger final on clay in Germany. The quarterfinalist there is set to face most likely Jeremy Chardy/Pablo Cuevas, who face the winner of a qualifier vs. Swedish wild card Christian Lindell in round 2. Robredo, Mathieu and Cuevas are all veteran clay courters capable of periods of good play, and Robredo comes off the Wimbledon fourth round after struggling for periods this year. He leads the h2h on clay with PHM 2-0, and Cuevas plays stronger on the challenger circuit these days, so I tip Robredo through to the semifinals.
Fernando Verdasco, a finalist last year, will face a qualifier or Jiri Vesely, who made the Wimbledon third round and has been hot on the clay challenger circuit, in round 2. Vesely-Verdasco is a match to anticipate, and with Verdasco having lost two straight matches, Vesely could pounce and reach the quarterfinals. Vesely/Verdasco should face Pablo Carreno Busta, who has also found some great form on the clay challenger circuit, in the quarters. PCB opens with Dustin Brown, then Markus Eriksson, a Swedish wild card, or Paolo Lorenzi. PCB/Vesely would be interesting as they have never met before. Both have been strong on the challenger circuit and both have dark horse potential.
Dark Horse: Jiri Vesely
Lajovic could also make a dark horse run this week, but my official selection is Vesely. If he beats Verdasco and PCB, Robredo is also beatable and he could find himself in his first career ATP final.
Predictions
Semis:
Ferrer d. Sousa
Robredo d. Carreno Busta
Ferrer was upset by Sousa in Kuala Lumpur last season, but on clay, experience and skill favors the Spaniard. Robredo has beaten PCB twice this season, so the trend has to be expected to continue on the same surface of clay.
Final:
Ferrer d. Robredo
Ferrer and Robredo have split Bastad meetings, but Ferrer has won the last five meetings, all on clay, and dominates the h2h. He isn’t as consistent as he used to be, but on clay with a weak field, he should be last man standing at the end of the week.
ATP Stuttgart
MercedesCup
ATP World Tour 250
Stuttgart, Germany
July 7-July 13, 2014
Prize Money: € 426,605
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes) (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Fabio Fognini (15)
2: Mikhail Youzhny (16)
3: Roberto Bautista Agut (23)
4: Feliciano Lopez (26)
A very balanced field in Stuttgart, with just three top 25 players, and many who can post good results on clay. This will be an interesting week.
First Round matchups to watch:
Lukas Rosol vs. (WC)Alex Zverev
The most noteworthy match of the first round this week will be the match between Rosol, who comes off a loss to Nadal at Wimbledon, and the young Alex Zverev, who just won his first career challenger title in Germany on clay, beating some solid ATP level players along the way. Zverev is the first 17-year-old challenger winner in quite a while, and he’s a talented kid, being the former number 1 junior. Given fatigue also being a factor, Rosol, who isn’t shabby on clay, should win, but if Zverev can keep the scoreline close he’ll have acquitted himself well against another ATP regular.
Top Half:
Defending champ Fabio Fognini is the top seed. He’s struggled some as of late, but should be favored against Andrey Golubev/Philipp Petzschner, and then against Santiago Giraldo or Blaz Rola/qualifier in the quarters. It is good to see Petzschner back on the ATP tour, as he gets a wild card this week. Fognini has a 2-1 record against Giraldo on clay and both players, when hot, can do a lot of damage. This section is a toss-up between them. Former NCAA player Rola is also improving.
Roberto Bautista Agut faces Igor Sijsling or a qualifier, and then one of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez/qualifier/Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the quarterfinals. RBA has been hot this season, and GGL may be cooling off, so I’m going with RBA into the semis over Garcia-Lopez here.
Bottom Half:
Mikhail Youzhny appears to be in decline, and he could have trouble against Leo Mayer in round 2, assuming Mayer beats Michael Berrer. Under the radar, Mayer has been improving his results, albeit on an inconsistent basis, and he’s best on clay. Federico Delbonis/Juan Monaco/Benjamin Becker/Benoit Paire are the quarterfinal options here. Monaco and Becker are both veterans who have been struggling for a while to return to their previous form. Paire has been in terrible form all season and has been a disappointment. This section is another toss-up.
Feliciano Lopez, who has been red hot on grass this year, will return to clay against Peter Gojowczyk/Daniel Gimeno-Traver, and then one of Rosol/Zverev/JL Struff/Philipp Kohlschreiber in the quarters. Kohli has been struggling lately, so I like Lopez over the defending finalist to get out of the section, Rosol could also make the quarters.
Dark Horse: Leonardo Mayer
Mayer has an ATP final and 2 ATP quarterfinals on clay, plus a third round at the French and a fourth round at Wimbledon this season. With Youzhny struggling and the players above him not in good form either, Mayer should sneak his way into the semifinals, or at least the quarterfinals this week.
Predictions
Semis:
Bautista Agut d. Giraldo
Lopez d. Mayer
RBA beat Giraldo in Madrid this year on clay, and I’m going with Lopez as the player in the best form right now to reach the final.
Final:
Bautista Agut d. Lopez
Both players had strong grass court campaigns, and I’m going with RBA to win their first career meeting and win his first clay court title this week.
Tennis Atlantic 