2014 Tashkent, Tiburon and Rennes Challenger Previews, Picks
Chris De Waard, Tennis East Coast
We’re abandoning clay for the moment, with three Challenger events on hardcourt in Uzbekistan, California and France.
Tashkent Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
6-11 October
Prize Money: $125,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Dusan Lajovic (69)
2: Sergiy Stakhovsky (72)
3: Lukas Lacko (83)
4: Adrian Mannarino (84)
5: Damir Dzumhur (106)
6: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (119)
7: Farrukh Dustov (129)
8: Alexander Kudryavtsev (130)
The last direct acceptance is Anton Zaitcev, ranked 343rd.
First round match-ups to watch
(7) Farrukh Dustov – Radu Albot
Dustov has reached three Challenger finals this year, but he is currently on a five match losing streak and can use a good result. Albot has been in good form, qualifying for the US Open and reaching a semi-final and a final in his last two Challenger events. Their previous match in Bergamo last year ended in a 6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(4) victory for Dustov, so this might well be another marathon match.
Top Half
Although he is unseeded, Borna Coric is one to watch here, playing his first event after winning the Izmir Challenger. He is the favorite to take out #8 seed Alexander Kudryavtsev in the second round, after which an interesting encounter with top seed Dusan Lajovic is likely to follow. In the bottom section, #3 seed Lukas Lacko is a clear favorite to advance after reaching the quarterfinal at the 250 event in Shenzhen two weeks ago.
Bottom Half
#2 seed Sergiy Stakhovsky has a comfortable draw, with the out of form Dustov as the seed in his quarter. The top section contains a lot of different dangerous players, however. #4 seed Adrian Mannarino has won the last three Challengers he played, while Damir Dzumhur and Evgeny Donskoy are also well capable of beating Stakhovsky.
Predictions
Semis:
Lacko > Lajovic
Mannarino > Stakhovsky
Final:
Mannarino > Lacko
Lacko beat Lajovic comfortably earlier this year in the qualification draw of Miami, which ended 6-3 6-2. Against Mannarino it is bound to become a tight match, as both their previous matches ended in three sets. Both times the victory went to Mannarino, however.
First Republic Bank Tiburon Challenger
ATP Challenger Tour
Tiburon, CA, USA
6-12 October
Prize Money: $100,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Sam Querrey (47)
2: Tim Smyczek (99)
3: Bradley Klahn (118)
4: Peter Polansky (123)
5: Denis Kudla (125)
6: Thiemo de Bakker (143)
7: Frank Dancevic (144)
8: Luca Vanni (156)
The last direct acceptance is Elias Ymer, ranked 240th. Last week’s Sacramento finalist Stefan Kozlov got in on a special exempt, while Jared Donaldson and Bjorn Fratangelo received wild cards.
First round match-ups to watch
(2) Tim Smycek – Ryan Harrison
No matter how bad his form may be, you can’t help but keep watching Harrison. He lost to youngsters Kozlov and Donaldson in the first round of his previous two Challengers. Judging by their match in Atlanta this year, this might be more of a train wreck to watch instead of a quality match, considering it ended 6-0 6-2 in Smyczek’s favor.
(SE) Stefan Kozlov – Alex Bolt
After a breakthrough tournament last week, it will be interesting to see if Kozlov can deliver that kind of form two weeks in a row. Bolt seems to have trouble with that, considering he lost to world #495 Marcos Giron in the first round of Sacramento last week after reaching the semi-final of Napa the week before.
Top Half
After winning Sacramento and Napa, Querrey is back for more easy matches and is once again by far the highest ranked player in the field. Elias Ymer was up a set and a break against him at Napa and they might face off again in the second round here. Other than Ymer, I very much doubt anyone will trouble him.
Bottom Half
The draw is fairly unbalanced, with the big majority of dangerous players being in the bottom half. Although, in some cases, their danger lies more in their potential than the reality, perhaps. Thiemo de Bakker retired last week, while Frank Dancevic isn’t in good form and it’s hard to predict if Kozlov can keep up his good run. Other than them, we still have Bradley Klahn, John Millman, Chase Buchanan, Tim Smyczek and Jared Donaldson, making this a very exciting half and also one that is hard to predict.
Predictions
Semis:
Querrey > Vanni
Smyczek > Klahn
Final:
Querrey > Smyczek
Smyczek and Klahn have a very interesting head to head, tied at 3-3 with Smyczek prevailing in their last match at Napa last year. Querrey is obviously the big favorite again.
Open de Rennes
ATP Challenger Tour
Rennes, France
6-12 October
Prize Money: €85,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Jan-Lennard Struff (53)
2: Thomaz Bellucci (68)
3: Paul-Henri Mathieu (81)
4: Dudi Sela (87)
5: Andreas Haider-Maurer (94)
6: Dustin Brown (96)
7: Andreas Beck (100)
8: Tobias Kamke (102)
The last direct acceptance is Gregoire Burquier, ranked 202nd. World #73 Robin Haase qualified after being a late sign-up. Tim Puetz, Karen Khachanov and Martin Fischer also qualified. Tristan Lamasine and Marc Gicquel received a wild card, completing this very strong field.
First round match-ups to watch
(2) Thomaz Bellucci – Marsel Ilhan
A re-match of last week’s showdown at Mons, which Ilhan won 7-6(7) 6-4. Ilhan played a very good tournament, which was evidenced by him snapping David Goffin’s streak of 37 consecutive won sets at Challenger level in the semi-final, even though it didn’t get him the win.
(4) Dudi Sela – Alexander Zverev
Sela had a very tough draw last week at Mons against Steve Darcis, the eventual finalist. This week’s draw isn’t too pleasant either, with up and coming 17 year old Zverev, who took out Dustin Brown last week before losing to Goffin in the quarterfinal.
Top Half
Top seed Jan-Lennard Struff should be able to get at least to the semi-final, although Robin Haase could pose trouble in the second round if he refinds his form. #3 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu can be marked the favorite in the other section, with a favorable draw of clay players to the quarterfinal. There he might meet Nicolas Mahut, who is always tricky. Although their last meeting at Bucharest earlier this year ended in a 6-3 6-1 victory for Mathieu, that was on clay, which highly favors him.
Bottom Half
There are a lot of dangerous unseeded players lurking in this half, with Matteo Viola, Steve Darcis, Alexander Zverev, Kenny De Schepper and Marsel Ilhan being very capable of making the final. Especially with erratic seeds as Dustin Brown and Thomaz Bellucci, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an unseeded player get through. All in all, a very tough half to predict with no players clearly sticking out.
Predictions
Semis:
Struff > Mathieu
Haider-Maurer > Brown
Final:
Struff > Haider-Maurer
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