2015 Noumea and Happy Valley Challenger Previews and Predictions
Chris de Waard, Tennis Atlantic
The Challenger Tour is ready to start off again, with two tournaments on hardcourts. One in Australia and the other one on the small island of New Caledonia, about 1200 kilometers east of Australia.
2015 Noumea Challenger Preview
Noumea Challenger
Challenger BNP Paribas
ATP Challenger Tour
Noumea, New Caledonia
January 5-January 10, 2015
Prize Money: $75,000
Seeds: (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Adrian Mannarino (44)
2: Kenny De Schepper (106)
3: Horacio Zeballos (123)
4: Jimmy Wang (124)
5: Yuichi Sugita (131)
6: Stephane Robert (134)
7: Adrian Menendez-Maceiras (135)
8: Bradley Klahn (148)
The last direct acceptance is Jonathan Eysseric, ranked 245th. Young Frenchman Laurent Lokoli entered the draw on a wild card and plays American Chase Buchanan in the first round.
First round match-ups to watch
(1)Adrian Mannarino vs. Enzo Couacaud
A French encounter between players who are almost ten years apart. 19 year old Couacaud made a big rankings jump in his final tournament of 2014, when he reached the semi-final of the Rennes Challenger, launching him from outside of the top 300 to inside the top 250. Mannarino ended 2014 with two Challenger victories in the United States, giving him a career high ranking of #44. He took a wild card into this tournament and should be a strong favorite to win it, considering he is the only player in the top 100.
(3)Horacio Zeballos vs. Gonzalo Lama
This is a match-up you would expect to find at the other side of the ocean, in South America and played on clay. But in preparation for the qualifying draw of the Australian Open, a lot of clay grinders are hitting the warm-up Challengers on hardcourt. Zeballos had an awful 2014 and was lucky to win a Challenger in Quito without beating a top 300 opponent, keeping his ranking somewhat respectable, albeit still almost seventy spots lower than he started 2014 with. Lama failed to win a set in his four hardcourt tournaments last year, but against this Zeballos, who knows?
Top Half:
Adrian Mannarino is clearly the favorite here and realistically I can only see two players challenging him. The first one is comeback kid Steve Darcis, who ended his 2014 with a final, win and quarterfinal in three Challengers, launching him from #355 to his current ranking of #160. In 2013 he beat Mannarino in straight sets in Montpellier. The other one is #6 seed Stephane Robert, who is making his comeback after being out with injury since Wimbledon. But naturally it’s hard to predict how his form is going to be. Both Darcis and Robert can not face Mannarino until the semi-final.
Bottom Half:
The bottom half has a lot more uncertain factors, making it harder to predict. #2 seed Kenny De Schepper had a reasonably strong finish to 2014, qualifying for the Paris Masters and Basel, but in his last tournament he had a first round loss in a French Challenger against #295 Laurynas Grigelis. The safe bet is to back De Schepper and #4 seed Jimmy Wang to face each other in the semi-final.
Predictions
Semis:
Darcis d. Mannarino
De Schepper d. Wang
Ranking wise Darcis beating Mannarino might look like an upset, but his level is a lot higher than his ranking suggests. 2015 may well be the year we see Darcis back into the top 50.
Final:
Darcis d, De Schepper
Happy Valley Challenger
2015 Happy Valley Challenger Preview
City of Onkaparinga ATP Challenger 2015
ATP Challenger Tour
Happy Valley, Australia
January 5-January 11, 2015
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds: (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Blaz Rola (80)
2: Marcos Baghdatis (85)
3: Andrey Kuznetsov (92)
4: Paul-Henri Mathieu (96)
5: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (129)
6: Hiroki Moriya (146)
7: Michael Russell (158)
8: Marton Fucsovics (161)
The last direct acceptance is Liam Broady, ranked 196th. There are a couple of dangerous Australian wild cards in the draw as well: Alex Bolt, Jordan Thompson and John-Patrick Smith.
First round match-ups to watch
Philipp Petzschner vs. Matteo Viola
Former world #35 Petzschner came back in June, after a lengthy injury lay-off, but hasn’t been able to make an impact yet. His best result was a second round in Kuala Lumpur, where he lost a three set match against #13 Ernests Gulbis. Currently ranked 421st, he faces Matteo Viola. The Italian will be looking to start off 2015 better than he finished 2014, racking up five consecutive losses.
Top Half:
1 seed Blaz Rola is projected to play former prospect Ryan Harrison in the second round. Will 2015 be the year where Harrison returns to his 2012 form? We will see. #7 seed Michael Russell will turn 37 this year, but will keep up the grind. He has a good draw, facing a qualifier in the first round and another qualifier or last direct acceptance Liam Broady in the second. In the second section there are a lot of guys who can get through to the semi-final, it’s a tough one to predict. #8 seed Marton Fucsovics has a kind draw and perhaps he can take advantage of the other heavy hitters being in the other section.
Bottom Half:
#2 seed Marcos Baghdatis made some pretty daft statements in the off-season, saying he aims to return to the top 50 in 2015 and eventually even the top 10 in 2018 or 2019, which seems wildly delusional. Nevertheless, top 50 should be possible for the current world #85, if he is healthy and motivated. He can make a firm beginning here, as he should be the favorite to win the title. Another player to watch in this half is Jurgen Zopp, the former world #71, who has struggled with his comeback from a serious injury in 2013 and 2014. But he finished off the year with a victory in the Helsinki Challenger, beating top seed and world #65 Jarkko Nieminen in the first round, so he should feel good coming into 2015.
Predictions
Semis:
Rola d. Fucsovics
Baghdatis d. Zopp
Final:
Baghdatis d. Rola
