Tennis Atlantic

2015 ATP Maui, Hong Kong & Bucaramanga Challenger Preview & Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic

Amidst the second week action at the Australian Open there are three Challengers to watch as well, two of which will be played on hardcourt in Hong Kong and Hawaii, together with one on clay in Colombia.

Royal Lahaina Challenger

ATP Challenger Tour
Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii, USA
January 25th – February 1st, 2015
Prize Money: $50,000

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Denis Kudla (123)
2: Bradley Klahn (150)
3: Michael Russell (156)
4: Ryan Harrison (160)
5: Wayne Odesnik (167)
6: Denys Molchanov (171)
7: Chase Buchanan (179)
8: Jarmere Jenkins (191)

The last direct acceptance is Frederik Nielsen, ranked 359th. Promising 16 year old Stefan Kozlov received a wild card for the main draw. Former top 70 player Ryan Sweeting is making a comeback after being out for almost two years with injury, he has a protected ranking of #245. Sweeting became somewhat of a mainstream celebrity in recent times, due to his marriage to actress Kaley Cuoco.

First round match-up to watch

(7) Chase Buchanan – Daniel Nguyen

Buchanan had a solid Australian Open campaign, winning two qualifying matches before falling in two tight sets to an inspired Yuki Bhambri, who went on to perform well against Andy Murray in the first round. Buchanan has Ryan Harrison in his quarter, who is still highly unpredictable, so this could be a great opportunity for a semi-final and perhaps even more. Nguyen will try to recover from his embarrassing losses in USA F2 and F4, where he respectively lost 6-0 4-6 0-6 to world #1622 Nathan Ponwith and 6-4 6-3 to world #854 Yannick Hanfmann.

Top Half

Top seed Denis Kudla landed in a very comfortable section of the draw. He plays Matt Reid in the first round, a qualifier in the second and an out of form Denys Molchanov or comeback kid Ryan Sweeting in the quarterfinal. In short, he should have no problems reaching the semi-final. His opponent there is harder to predict. #3 seed Michael Russell, Stefan Kozlov, James McGee and Wayne Odesnik are all in there with a realistic shot. Russell had a great Australian Open, winning three qualifying matches before understandably falling to #20 seed David Goffin in four sets. If he continues that form, the veteran has to be given the edge.

Bottom Half

As mentioned, #7 seed Chase Buchanan has an excellent chance to make a deep run here. Ryan Harrison had a great start to the season, winning the Happy Valley Challenger, but then went on to severely disappoint at the Australian Open, losing in straight sets to Wayne Odesnik in the first round of qualifying. This makes it hard to predict which version of Harrison is going to show up here, both a first round loss and a tournament victory wouldn’t come as a surprise. #8 seed Jarmere Jenkins had a solid qualifying run at the Australian Open as well, losing to Tim Puetz in the final round. He will probably face #2 seed Bradley Klahn in the quarterfinal, a rematch of the 2014 Traralgon Challenger final, when Klahn won 7-6(5) 6-1.

Predictions

Semis:

Russell d. Kudla
Klahn d. Buchanan

Russell has a great head to head advantage over top seed Kudla, winning all three of their hardcourt encounters.

Final:

Russell d. Klahn

Hong Kong ATP Challenger

ATP Challenger Tour
Hong Kong
January 26th – February 1st, 2015
Prize Money: $50,000

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Ricardas Berankis (85)
2: Tatsuma Ito (89)
3: Blaz Kavcic (102)
4: Jimmy Wang (118)
5: James Duckworth (120)
6: Yuichi Sugita (136)
7: Somdev Devvarman (139)
8: Hiroki Moriya (146)

The last direct acceptance is Fabrice Martin, ranked 312th. Philipp Petzschner entered the tournament on a wild card.

First round match-ups to watch

(6) Yuichi Sugita – Matthew Ebden

Ebden was ranked inside of the top 70 only a year ago, but currently sits at #264 after a surreal downswing. His Australian Open ended in a disaster as well, missing three match points before falling to Matthias Bachinger in the first qualifying round, 6-4 6-7(7) 3-6. It feels like he can turn things around any moment. Perhaps he can against Sugita, against whom he has won both their prior matches in straight sets.

(7) Somdev Devvarman – Yuki Bhambri

A clash of Indians, with Devvarman appearing to be on the way back, while Bhambri has seemed to pick up steam again. Devvarman is seven years older and still the top Indian player, but he might lose that spot to Bhambri very soon. Bhambri impressed at the Australian Open with a swift qualifying campaign, after which he held up quite while against Andy Murray in the first round. After struggling with injury in recent times, he seems to finally be back on the rise again. He should be able to beat Devvarman here.

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Top Half

Top seed Ricardas Berankis survived a marathon five set match against Igor Sijsling in the first round of the Australian Open, before falling to #14 seed Kevin Anderson in straight sets in the second round. He is likely to first face two Indians, with Saketh Myneni in the first round and Ramkumar Ramanathan in the second. Out of the seeds I don’t think anyone can really trouble him, outside of perhaps #4 seed Jimmy Wang, if Wang has a really good day. Regardless, Berankis is clearly the favorite to advance to the final.

Bottom Half

This is an interesting half. It features both James Duckworth and Blaz Kavcic, who battled out an epic five set match at the Australian Open for the second time. In 2013 Kavcic was the winner, but this time Duckworth pulled through and lost in the second round to Richard Gasquet. They are projected to meet again in the quarterfinal here, so that should be a very interesting encounter and certainly a match-up to watch. In the bottom section a second round match between Bhambri and Petzschner is likely, which should go Bhambri’s way if he wants to continue his top 100 ambitions. However, Petzschner is a tricky veteran with an unorthodox game, so he will always be dangerous. Second seed Tatsuma, in contrast to Bhambri, has a cushy draw in a section with two wild cards and a qualifier, so he might profit from that in terms of fitness.

Predictions

Semis:

Berankis d. Wang
Bhambri d. Duckworth

Final:

Bhambri d. Berankis

Claro Open Bucaramanga 2015

ATP Challenger Tour
Bucaramanga, Colombia
January 27th – February 1st, 2015
Prize Money: $50,000

Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)

1: Paolo Lorenzi (64)
2: Victor Estrella Burgos (77)
3: Andreas Haider-Maurer (79)
4: Alejandro Falla (101)
5: Albert Montanes (104)
6: Alejandro Gonzalez (107)
7: Daniel Gimeno-Traver (110)
8: Joao Souza (115)

The last direct acceptance is Inigo Cervantes, ranked 248th. A wild card that I can’t explain went to 36 year old American Kevin Kim, who effectively retired in 2012 and is currently unranked. However, if the doubles draw comes out and you see him there with Sam Barnett, a hedge fund manager and amateur tennis player with whom he has played before, an educated guess would say that Barnett bought it for him. Enrico Becuzzi played in the qualifying draw and heroically managed to win five games in the first round.

First round match-ups to watch

(1) Paolo Lorenzi – Gonzalo Lama

Lorenzi had a lucky break at the Australian Open, playing an injured Alexander Dolgopolov in the first round and winning in straight sets. In the second round he kept it really close with Vasek Pospisil, also struggling with an injury, going down in four tight sets. Now he is back on clay and might struggle against Lama, who is a natural clay courter with a huge forehand. If Lorenzi is still rusty after the surface switch, this might be a tricky encounter.

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(6) Alejandro Gonzalez – Gastao Elias

Gonzalez also had a lucky break down under, facing perhaps the worst top sixteen seed of all time in the first round, Fabio Fognino. Gonzalez beat him in four sets, before falling to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the second round. Elias is a talented player who just can’t seem to push through to the next level, falling in the first qualifying round while being seeded. However, he thrives on clay and should be able to make this a very close encounter.

Top Half

All the seeds here have come from playing on hardcourt, with Lorenzi and Gonzalez and also Falla and Souza. If they are rusty, look for upsets by guys like Gonzalo Lama, Roberto Carballes Baena and Nicolas Jarry, who are more than competent clay courters and are more accustomed to the conditions than their seeded rivals, already having been ousted in the first qualifying round at the Australian Open in the cases of Lama and Jarry. Nevertheless, a guy like Lorenzi lives for these kind of tournaments and should still be marked a reasonable favorite over the other players in this half.

Bottom Half

#5 seed Albert Montanes and #7 seed Daniel Gimeno-Traver both had very disappointing starts to their clay seasons, with both going out before the quarterfinal in the Casablanca Challenger. #3 seed Andreas Haider-Maurer reached the second round of the Australian Open, where he lost to John Isner in four sets. He has been playing well lately and should be capable of setting up a semi-final encounter with #2 seed Victor Estrella Burgos, at the cost of Albert Montanes in the quarterfinal.

Predictions

Semis:

Lorenzi d. Jarry
Estrella Burgos d. Haider-Maurer
Jarry will be a factor on the main tour not too long from now, but for the moment the fourteen year older Lorenzi still has the edge. Estrella Burgos decimated Haider-Maurer 6-2 6-0 at the Challenger Finals and it’s hard to expect a sudden turnaround after only two months.

Final:

Lorenzi d. Estrella Burgos

Lorenzi seems to have Estrella Burgos’ number, beating him in all three of their encounters, including two on clay last year.