2015 Santo Domingo, Launceston and Bergamo Challenger Previews & Predictions
Chris De Waard, Tennis Atlantic
There are three Challengers on the schedule for this week, on hardcourt in Australia in Italy and on clay in the Dominican Republic.
Milex Tennis Open 2015 at La Bocha
ATP Challenger Tour
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Victor Estrella Burgos
2: Albert Montanes
3: Horacio Zeballos
4: Gastao Elias
5: Damir Dzumhur
6: Evgeny Donskoy
7: Jason Kubler
8: Gerald Melzer
The last direct acceptance is Renzo Olivo, ranked 273rd.
First round match-ups to watch
(1) Victor Estrella Burgos – Jose Hernandez
Well, I don’t think I need to elaborate too much on what happened this weekend. For me it’s undoubtedly one of the greatest things that ever happened in tennis. Estrella Burgos became the oldest first time ATP titlist in Quito, beating top seed Feliciano Lopez in a third set tiebreak. Normally he obviously would have withdrawn from a Challenger in the next week, but this one is played in his home country. However, surely his run of last week has taken a massive toll on him, mentally and physically, so I don’t expect him to go past the quarterfinal here.
(5) Damir Dzumhur – (Q) Benjamin Balleret
Thirty-two year old Balleret has been tearing it apart on the Futures circuit this year, reaching three clay finals in a row and winning two of them. Needless to say he has sufficient rhythm on clay, in contrast to Dzumhur, who played on indoor hardcourt in Zagreb last week, where he reached the second round. Balleret could push a rusty Dzumhur here, although the latter remains the clear favorite.
Top Half
As mentioned, I suspect Estrella Burgos to be too knackered to challenge for the title here. However, if anyone can defy the odds it’s him, of course. He has a tough second round draw with Nicolas Jarry, who had a good run at Quito as well, as he reached the second round and is ranked inside of the top 200 for the first time. He could well be the one to stop Estrella Burgos and I feel like that indeed will be the case. In the bottom section Gerald Melzer has the best chance to advance to the semi-final, building on his second round at Quito last week, where he saved match points to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer in the first round, 1-6 7-6(1) 7-6(6). He will have competition from Horacio Zeballos, who also reached the second round at Quito, where he quite frankly choked a bit in his loss against Thomaz Bellucci, 6-2 3-6 7-6(6).
Bottom Half
#7 seed Jason Kubler has an excellent opportunity to reach the quarterfinal. A knee injury is stopping the Australian from competing outside of clay, but that hasn’t stopped him from reaching the top 150 last year, coming from outside of the top 400. In all likelihood #4 seed Gastao Elias, #2 seed Albert Montanes and Roberto Carballes Baena will be his main rivals in this half. Montanes had his best result in quite some time when he reached the quarterfinal of Quito last week, beating world #31 Santiago Giraldo in the second round. If he keeps up that level, he will be able to reach the final here. Elias reached the final of the Bucaramanga Challenger two weeks ago, but randomly played the Dallas Challenger on indoor hardcourt last week, losing in the first round, so perhaps that will have a negative impact on his performance. Nonetheless, he landed in an easy section, so if he survives the first two rounds he should have picked up enough rhythm to compete for the title. Last year he faced Montanes at Hamburg and beat him 6-4 6-3 and since then the gap has only widened, making me inclined to predict another victory for the Portuguese.
Predictions
Semis:
Melzer d. Jarry
Elias d. Montanes
Final:
Elias d. Melzer
Launceston International
ATP Challenger Tour
Launceston, Australia
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: $50,000
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Yuichi Sugita (133)
2: Somdev Devvarman (136)
3: Kyle Edmund (148)
4: Hiroki Moriya (150)
5: Hyeon Chung (151)
6: Luke Saville (162)
7: Radu Albot (166)
8: Bradley Klahn (167)
The last direct acceptance is Andrew Whittington, ranked 492nd. Last week’s surprise semi-finalist at Burnie, Matthew Barton, received a wild card.
First round match-ups to watch
(8) Bradley Klahn – Matthew Ebden
Slowly but surely Ebden is starting to show signs of life again, beating world #133 Yuichi Sugita two tournaments in a row. This season he has gone from a first round loss, to a second round loss, to a quarterfinal loss, so following that pattern a semi-final should follow here. And it isn’t unlikely at all, since he is projected to face Sugita once again in the quarterfinal. The last time he faced Klahn, in 2013, he won 6-1 6-3, so that should spur nothing but confidence.
(3) Kyle Edmund – (WC) Matthew Barton
Barton is the man who stopped Ebden last week, reaching the semi-final as a qualifier. It will be interesting to see if he can build on that run, but Edmund is a nasty first round draw. Edmund is in great form, winning the Hong Kong Challenger and losing in the quarterfinal at Burnie last week, against the eventual winner Hyeon Chung.
Top Half
Things are looking to be heading towards a semi-final encounter between Ebden and Edmund. Edmund has a tough draw, however. If he survives the first round, last week’s Burnie finalist Alex Bolt awaits him in the second round. It will probably be between them for a semi-final spot, since the second section is remarkably weaker, headed by #7 seed Radu Albot.
Bottom Half
This will be a great test for last week’s Burnie winner Hyeon Chung to see if he has what it takes to perform well two weeks in a row. If he can, he will undoubtedly be the favorite to get through this half victorious. All the seeds are in bad form, so it will probably take another surprising Australian to trouble him, like Barton did in the semi-final last week. Jordan Thompson will be a solid candidate to do so.
Predictions
Semis:
Edmund d. Ebden
Chung d. Thompson
Final:
Chung d. Edmund
Chung beat Edmund 6-3 6-2 last week and even with a high chance of fatigue creeping up, I can’t see that radically change over the course of such a short amount of time.
Internazionali di Tennis
ATP Challenger Tour
Bergamo, Italy
9-15 February 2015
Prize Money: €42,500
Seeds (ATP ranking in parentheses)
1: Andreas Beck (110)
2: Lucas Pouille (115)
3: Farrukh Dustov (118)
4: Aleksandr Nedovyesov (123)
5: Iliya Marchenko (134)
6: Benoit Paire (149)
7: Mate Delic (152)
8: Marton Fucsovics (160)
The last direct acceptance is Jan Mertl, ranked 213th.
First round match-up to watch
(8) Marton Fucsovics – Jan Hernych
Fucsovics is playing a bizarre schedule, going from the Australian Open, to Quito and now here in Bergamo. It also hasn’t paid off, respectively losing in the second qualifying round and first round. Thirty-five year old Hernych has been preparing a lot better for this event and the crafty veteran might hand Fucsovics another early exit.
Top Half
The most interesting player to watch in this half is surprisingly enough a qualifier. Former world #51 Daniel Brands is making a comeback after suffering from mono for a long period and he is projected to play top seed Andreas Beck in the second round, against whom he should match up quite well on this fast surface. Brands already did fairly well in Zagreb last week for someone just making his comeback, losing to Copil in a third set tiebreak in the first round of qualifying. Don’t be surprised if Brands makes a run here, especially knowing that the bottom section is filled with erratic players like Aleksandr Nedovyesov, Frank Dancevic and Tim Puetz. The second round encounter between Brands and Beck is likely to determine the finalist from this half.
Bottom Half
The finalist from this half may very well be determined by a very interesting semi-final match between Benoit Paire and Lucas Pouille. Paire has looked very shaky so far in his comeback from knee injury, while Pouille is playing the best tennis of his life. This form saw Pouille reach his first ATP semi-final in Auckland last month and push Gaël Monfils to five sets at the Australian Open, so the younger Frenchman will be the favorite to advance. Other dangerous floaters in this half are Farrukh Dustov, Philipp Petzschner and Jurgen Zopp.
Predictions
Semis:
Brands d. Puetz
Pouille d. Paire
Final:
Pouille d. Brands
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