Tennis Atlantic

They picked the draw yesterday in Washington for the WTA Singles at Rock Creek Park and there was a lot of back-slapping and a few high-fives. Tournament organizers relished in the ‘historic’ moment of having created the world’s only combined 500-level men’s and women’s tennis event. I’m looking forward to the level of play, but I’m not too wrapped up in the the history of such a feat: while it elevates DC to the fifth-most important tournament in the nation, it’s still a distant relative to the powerful Cincinnati, Miami and Indian Wells offerings.

There was also exhaustive use of the word “equity” at the draw ceremony. I’m all for equity, but the way they arrived at declaring the achievement thereof is slightly misplaced. You didn’t raise the Federal minimum wage, Mubadala DC Citi Open. You merged two tournaments to turn a profit. While it may be significant to note that the women are now playing for similar tour points, the men’s champion will still earn nearly three times as much as the last woman standing next Sunday ($353, 445.00 vs. $120,150.00). That said, I have been covering the WTA portion of the DC tournament since its inception in 2011, where the champion earned a paltry $38,000.00. So, yes, we’re moving forward, just not as fast and not as attributable to tournament organizers as they’d like you to believe.

Enough of the editorializing. Let’s look at who will win.

Jessica Pegula is your top seed. This is where the Buffalo heiress won her first tour level event in 2019, and she seemingly used the pandemic to elevate her game to its current heights. She won a WTA 1000 title at the Guadalajara Open in 2022 and is now a regular in the late stages of tournaments at all levels. But she has never won a WTA 500 title.

To get to the quarterfinals of this newly-minted 500, she’ll need to win her first match against Sonia Kenin and either face a supermom, Elina Svitolina or Vika Azarenka, or the pluckster, Daria Kasatkina, to reach the quarterfinals. Kasatkina looks to be the beneficiary of a long slog between the supermoms and she will likely give Pegula a test to reach the semis, where Maria Sakkari or Madison Keys may lie in wait. This is tough draw for the #1 seed.

On the other side, #2 Caroline Garcia heated up during the American swing last year to reach the top 10. She came out of nowhere to qualify in Cincinnati and win that 1000-level title. I expect her to heat up on the DC hardcourts and make her way to the final. En route, she’ll likely face Andreescu, Cirstea and Belinda Bencic to reach the final. There is just too much in the way for 2022 champion Liudmila Samsonova to reach the final in this field of improved quality.

I expect a showdown between Garcia and Pegula or Sakkari next Sunday, and another summer title for the French player.