2013 ATP Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow Previews and Predictions
Steen Kirby, Tennis East Coast
The European indoor season starts with a trio of 250 events. Just a few weeks remain in the ATP World Tour season for 2013.
Enjoy it while it lasts!
ATP Stockholm
If Stockholm Open
ATP World Tour 250
Stockholm, Sweden
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: € 530,165
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: David Ferrer
2: Milos Raonic
3: Jerzy Janowicz
4: Kevin Anderson
The strongest tournament field this week has four top 20 players.
First round matchups to watch:
(8)Ivan Dodig vs. Fernando Verdasco
Dodig beat Verdasco in a thrilling 5 setter at the US Open and they will meet again in the first round of Stockholm. Both are in up-and-down form, as Dodig comes off a first round loss in Shanghai, but had a good Asian swing result in Tokyo where he made the semis. Verdasco has 2 consecutive second round losses, but they are losses to top players Novak Djokovic and Milos Raonic. He took a set off of them. A natural toss-up.
Jurgen Zopp vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
A battle between a player on the comeback trail and a player who has worked his way up the rankings but is still adjusting to ATP competition. Jurgen Zopp of Estonia is taking advantage of a protected ranking to enter the field here. After injuries his ranking is outside the top 300, but he is climbing up the rankings and his career high is 71 last year. Now 25, the Estonian has good indoor results at challengers, reaching the semis at the Petange challenger and qualifying at the Rennes challenger this past week. PCB, meanwhile, lost in the second round of Kuala Lumpur and the first round of Beijing after leaving clay for ATP events. If PCB can find his feet on indoor hard courts, he is the better player, but for now, I think Zopp will pull the slight upset.
Top Half
A struggling David Ferrer went a pedestrian 4-3 on the Asian swing with losses to second tier players Joao Sousa and Florian Mayer on his record. Ferrer will try to get things in order, opening with Jack Sock/Bernard Tomic in round 2, and one of Verdasco/Dodig, Jarkko Nieminen/Benjamin Becker in the quarters. That match could be tough and this is a somewhat difficult section.
Jerzy Janowicz returns to tennis for the first time this fall, and his form is up in the air as he opens with a qualifier or dangerous indoor St. Petersburg finalist Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. JJ has the game for indoor play, as we saw in Paris last year, but so does GGL and that could be a cracking second round match. The quarterfinalist from this section will most likely face St. Petersburg champion Ernests Gulbis, who opens with Jeremy Chardy and has Igor Sijsing/Tobias Kamke waiting in round 2.
Bottom Half
Milos Raonic is bidding to qualify for the World Tour Finals, which is why he took a wild card to play here. He opens with a qualifier or Alejandro Falla in round 2. Assuming he gets past that, he has a very nice draw as his quarterfinal opponent will be one of Benoit Paire/Santiago Giraldo, or Zopp/Carreno Busta. I see no reason why he shouldn’t cruise to at least the semis if healthy. Paire, the most likely quarterfinalist, is incredibly unpredictable…
Kevin Anderson has a heavy, serve-centric game that is good for indoor play, but he is in pedestrian form as well, going 1-2 on the Asian swing. He opens with current indoor challenger finalist Kenny De Schepper or Swedish wild card Markus Eriksson and he has a very weak draw. His quarterfinal opponent will be one of Grigor Dimitrov/JL Struff or one of 2 qualifiers. The bottom half of the draw is far weaker than the top.
Dark Horse: Jarkko Nieminen
In a jumbled top quarter of the draw, Nieminen has a history of good indoor results and could reach the semis as an unseeded player. After facing Benjamin Becker, he will perhaps get his toughest test against Verdasco/Dodig, both of whom could be semifinalists, and then he probably faces a struggling Ferrer in the quarters.
If he can win all that, he is in the semis, but it is hard to say who gets out of that quarter.
Predictions
Semis
Gulbis d. Dodig
Raonic d. Anderson
I think Gulbis is in good form, good indoors, and will upset Janowicz, who may be rusty. He should also beat anyone who gets out of the top quarter, be it Dodig/Nieminen/Verdasco/Ferrer, to reach the final.
Raonic should cruise to the final with the weak bottom section not proving to be much of a challenge. Raonic beat Anderson indoors last year.
Gulbis is 0-2 against Dodig but that shouldn’t mean much.
Final
Raonic d. Gulbis
Raonic has everything to play for, while Gulbis is in good form. This could be a great final. Another reason to pick Raonic is his domination of the h2h, holding a 4-0 record including 2 wins this year and a win indoors last year. Gulbis has only taken one set off the Canadian in those four matches.
ATP Vienna
Erste Bank Open
ATP World Tour 250
Vienna, Austria
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: € 501,355
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2: Tommy Haas
3: Fabio Fognini
4: Philipp Kohlschreiber
First round matchups to watch:
(7)Vasek Pospisil vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Pospisil is seeded here, but he gets one of the toughest first round opponents at the tournament, the always dogged Lleyton Hewitt. Rusty routined him in Newport on grass this year. Pospisil will have a better chance indoors and he just upset Richard Gasquet in Shanghai before losing to Gael Monfils in a close 2 sets. Hewitt is struggling a little, 1-2 on the Asian swing and coming off a blowout loss to Andreas Seppi. I think Vashy will notch the win here.
Top Half
Shanghai semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will face Daniel Brands or Andreas Haider-Maurer. If he is healthy and not fatigued, he should get Gael Monfils in the quarters after just beating him in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago. Monfils has to beat Marinko Matosevic, and Daniel Gimeno-Traver/Dominic Thiem to reach that point. Monfils comes off quarters in Shanghai.
A somewhat in form Fabio Fognini, who went 4-2 on the Asian swing, will probably face surprise Shanghai quarterfinalist Florian Mayer, if Flo beats Lukasz Kubot. Mayer-Fognini could be an interesting match. Hewitt/Pospisil, Robin Haase or a qualifier await in the quarters.
Bottom Half
A struggling Tommy Haas, who withdrew after a pair of wins in Shanghai and lost in the first round of Beijing, will face Pablo Andujar or a qualifier in round 2. Haas has a very easy draw section with Lukas Lacko being a likely quarterfinal opponent. The inconsistent Lacko needs wins over Austrian wildcard Gerald Melzer and Radek Stepanek/Martin Fischer. Stepanek has had some good challenger results, but not sure if he can make a deep run again in ATP singles.
Philipp Kohlschreiber has suffered a pair of tough second round losses on the Asian swing to elite players Nadal and Del Potro, and I’m sure he will be pleased to get a qualifier or Jan Hajek in round 2 instead as he starts off in Vienna. Peppo will face one of Lukas Rosol/Michael Russell/qualifier/Jesse Huta Galung in the quarters in what is a very easy draw for him as well.
Dark Horse: Radek Stepanek
Stepanek rolled through a pair of indoor challengers recently and his ranking is back inside the top 40. With a weak draw opening with Martin Fischer and Lacko/Melzer (the younger), then probably a struggling Haas in the quarters, Stepanek has a very nice look at the semis here and could even reach the final.
Predictions
Semis
Tsonga d. Pospisil
Stepanek d. Kohlschreiber
Tsonga or Monfils should be the finalist out of the top half.
Pospisil may eke his way to the semis. Stepanek has beaten Kohlschreiber 7 times since 2000, including a win on grass this year.
Final
Tsonga d. Stepanek
Stepanek will be a surprise enough to make the final, but Tsonga is top tier and should grab this title.
ATP Moscow
Kremlin Cup by Bank of Moscow
ATP World Tour 250
Moscow, Russia
October 14-October 20, 2013
Prize Money: $746,750
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Richard Gasquet
2: Andreas Seppi
3: Janko Tipsarevic
4: Alex Dolgopolov
First round matchups to watch
(7)Joao Sousa vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
Sousa is an amazing 8-1 indoors this fall, with semis in St. Petersburg and the Kuala Lumpur title on his resume. Stako lost to Sousa in St. Petersburg and has been journeying his way through a mix of ATP and challengers this fall with limited success. Sousa will be the favorite, but he has a lot of pressure on him to live up to the hype.
Jiri Vesely vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Vesely retired in the third round of his last event, the Orleans challenger, but overall the youngster is on the rise and he has an interesting first round test against Roger-Vasselin. ERV qualified in Tokyo and won a round and he maintains a pretty good record indoors. This match could go either way and should be close.
Top Half
Richard Gasquet makes his Moscow debut after a first round loss in Shanghai. Marcos Baghdatis or Evgeny Donskoy will serve as his first opponent, and assuming he wins he will face one of Dudi Sela/qualifier/Teymuraz Gabashvili/Adrian Mannarino in the quarters. This is a super-weak, challenger-level section. Gasquet should cruise, but keep an eye out for Mannarino, who is good indoors and could get out of this section.
Janko Tipsarevic is 1-3 this fall after a horrible year. He opens with Albert Ramos or wild card Karen Khachanov. If he can earn a win, he gets one of Denis Istomin/Andrey Kuznetsov/Ivo Karlovic/Denis Kudla in the quarters. Istomin seems close to a breakthrough while Karlovic could always surprise but has been slumping, probably still struggling with injury.
Bottom Half
Defending champion Andreas Seppi, who is struggling just a little, gets one of his countrymen, Paolo Lorenzi or Filippo Volandri in round 2. Sousa/Stakhovsky/Vesely/Roger-Vasselin await on deck. Sousa has a great chance to continue his top quality play with this draw.
Alex Dolgopolov will play a qualifier or Alex Bogomolov in the second round before seeing Ricardas Berankis/Horacio Zeballos or one of 2 qualifiers in the quarters in this easy section even for a player who has struggled this year.
Berankis is also one to watch here, even with his struggles.
Dark Horse: Ricardas Berankis
Berankis is in poor form and has been most of the year and he has lost 3 straight matches indoors. However, with this draw he still should make the quarters with a win over Zeballos and a qualifier. Dolgopolov is talented but inconsistent, Dolgo and he will be the favorite to reach the semis. Still, you never know.
Predictions
Semis:
Gasquet d. Istomin
Sousa d. Dolgopolov
Gasquet is 2-1 career against Istomin, while I have to go off form and pick Sousa to make the final over all comers.
Final:
Gasquet d. Sousa
Gasquet’s round one loss in Shanghai can probably be explained way due to fatigue from Beijing, and at this point, he should be fine to capture this title over a weak field. Sousa will have a shot if he plays like he did in Kuala Lumpur, but I’ll pick Reeshy.
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